European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Different strands of research analyse gender occupational differences and how they relate to differential earnings, especially among parents juggling family demands. We use rich data from PIAAC across a subset of European countries and match occupational characteristics to individuals' jobs using the O*NET database to analyse, first, whether there are gender differences in the occupational characteristics of jobs, particularly among parents, and second, whether the return to key occupational characteristics varies by gender. Compared to men, women's jobs generally require more contact with others, less autonomy in decision-making, and less time pressure. In addition, positions held by mothers involve both less leadership expectations and less intensive use of machines than those held by fathers. Further, mothers receive a lower return to both of these occupational characteristics than fathers do. Finally, even though gaps in occupational characteristics such as leadership jointly with the differential sorting of mothers and fathers across sectors explain part of the gender wage gap in Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition models, especially in Continental Europe, a large share remains unexplained particularly in Eastern and Southern European countries.

Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children ("second generation"), grouped by three categories of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. Central and East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries. We show how to use a probabilistic forecast to assess the reliability of projections of the immigrant population and their children. We employ the method of random shares using data for immigrants and their children for 2000-2021. We model their age- and sex-specific shares relative to the whole population. Relational models are used for the age patterns in these shares, and time series models to extrapolate the parameters of the age patterns. We compute a probabilistic forecast for six population sub-groups with immigration background, and one for non-immigrants. The probabilistic forecast is calibrated against Statistics Norway's official population projection. We find that a few population trends are quite certain: strong increases to 2060 in the size of the immigrant population (more specifically those who belong to country group 3) and of Norwegian-born children of immigrants. However, prediction intervals around the forecasts of immigrants and their children by one-year age groups are so wide that these forecasts are not reliable.

The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs during the pandemic. On the other hand, it led to acute experiences of blurred boundaries between work and family life during childcare and school closures. Therefore, the direction of the impact of working from home on fertility intentions during the pandemic is not unequivocal. In this paper, we investigate how working from home was related to change in fertility intentions of mothers and fathers during the pandemic and discuss the complex mechanisms behind these relationships. With the use of unique Familydemic Survey data from a representative sample of parents in Poland, we estimate multinomial logit regressions by gender and consider a set of potential moderators, including financial well-being, gender relations, and occupational characteristics. We find evidence for an overall negative relationship between home based work and fertility intentions for mothers, but we also uncover some positive moderating effects. In particular, we shed light on the unobvious moderating role of gendered division of unpaid labor from before the pandemic.

Family formation is fostered by circumstances of plannability and economic and social stability. Conversely, as documented in previous literature, employment instability can hamper fertility decisions. Based on data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the association between employment-related instability and the likelihood of having a first or additional child from 2000 to 2020 in Italy, covering a period characterised by increasing labour market deregulation. Our results show that individual employment instability, such as temporary employment or unemployment, negatively influences the likelihood of having a first and second child, while the progression to higher parities is less affected by employment situations. Building upon previous research, we demonstrate how the negative association between fertility and employment instability has intensified over recent decades, especially for women. The large sample size also allowed for the examination of specific differences by educational levels and both partners' employment situation. In contrast to traditional views about gender roles, the employment situation of one's partner seems to matter less for women than for men.

We use a unique data set from Spain and we estimate life expectancy at age 50 for males and females by place of residence and place of birth. We show that, consistent with expectations regarding the influence of early conditions on adult health and mortality, the effects of place of birth on adult mortality are very strong, irrespective of place of residence. Furthermore, we find that mortality levels observed in a place are strongly influenced by the composition of migrants by place of birth. This is reflected in a new measure of heritability of early childhood conditions that attains a value in the range 0.42-0.43, implying that as much as 43 percent of the variance in Spain's life expectancy at age 50 is explained by place of birth. Finally, we find evidence of the healthy migrant effect, that is, positive health selection of migrants, at a regional level.

I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.

Studies show that the economic benefits of marriage carry over into old age and that widowhood and divorce have detrimental economic consequences, especially for women. This study asks how affluence and poverty are affected by the timing of widowhood and divorce and tests whether they operate in symmetry. The study draws on Israel's annual Social Survey from multiple years (2013-2017), conducted by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. The sample is limited to older individuals, aged 55+ (n = 4824 men, 5643 women). The findings show that married people are less likely to be poor than unmarried people, but they are not always more likely to be affluent. Widowed men and women, and divorced men are more likely to achieve affluence than continuously married couples. The explanation may be that, in the Israeli context, the widowed tend to inherit benefits accumulated by their late spouse, whereas the divorced tend to divide resources when the marriage dissolves. Women incur higher and longer-term penalties for their change in marital status than do men, so that previously married women tend to have higher rates of poverty and lower rates of affluence than previously married men. The findings show that affluence and poverty do not operate in symmetry and that affluence does not simply mirror poverty, especially among men. For example, early widowed and late divorced men have higher odds of both poverty and affluence than married men. These findings demonstrate that poverty and affluence operate differently and examining both leads to new insights.

Geographic distance between a child and their non-resident parent is a key aspect of the reorganization of the family following parental separation. The increasingly equal involvement of both parents in the upbringing of their children is expected to translate into increasing geographic proximity between children and non-resident parents. So far, there has been no evidence about the time trends in geographical distances between minor children and non-resident parents outside of the Swedish context. In this study, we investigate these trends across Belgian separation cohorts from 1992 to 2018 and the extent to which they differ according to parental socioeconomic status and child's age at separation. Overall, we observed a very small decrease in distance between children and their non-resident fathers and a somewhat larger decrease for non-resident mothers. The distance increased for very young children (0-2 years) and children with low-educated fathers. These findings point to inequalities in certain parent-child dyads.