Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704
Daniel Sobelman
Abstract In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah. The Houthis’ strategic behaviour and communications indicate that they have attempted to succeed against Saudi Arabia in the same way that Hizbullah has succeeded against Israel: to harness their long-range missiles as a means of subjecting their stronger opponents to limitations and ‘rules of the game’. So far, the Houthis have been far less successful than Hizbullah. Nevertheless, the Houthis have become an integral part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’.
{"title":"Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah","authors":"Daniel Sobelman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah. The Houthis’ strategic behaviour and communications indicate that they have attempted to succeed against Saudi Arabia in the same way that Hizbullah has succeeded against Israel: to harness their long-range missiles as a means of subjecting their stronger opponents to limitations and ‘rules of the game’. So far, the Houthis have been far less successful than Hizbullah. Nevertheless, the Houthis have become an integral part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75946321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703
S. Farbman
Abstract Replacing banned American social-media applications and boasting encryption and other privacy protections, Telegram has become the social media of choice in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its popularity and the growth of a new community of amateur military correspondents (‘milbloggers’) communicating directly with users have made Telegram an increasingly important part of the war effort and the political narrative of the war. Criticism of the Russian military and the Ministry of Defence has become commonplace on the social-media platform, increasingly affecting narratives discussed on Russian television. The lack of a cohesive government strategy with respect to Telegram has led to an uncoordinated approach, with some officials trying to censor Telegram and others – including Russian President Vladimir Putin – seeking to co-opt milbloggers by integrating them into mainstream discourse. As the war drags on, however, the government is exercising increasing control over the platform, which will impact the reach and content of milbloggers, dissidents and other users.
{"title":"Telegram, ‘Milbloggers’ and the Russian State","authors":"S. Farbman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Replacing banned American social-media applications and boasting encryption and other privacy protections, Telegram has become the social media of choice in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its popularity and the growth of a new community of amateur military correspondents (‘milbloggers’) communicating directly with users have made Telegram an increasingly important part of the war effort and the political narrative of the war. Criticism of the Russian military and the Ministry of Defence has become commonplace on the social-media platform, increasingly affecting narratives discussed on Russian television. The lack of a cohesive government strategy with respect to Telegram has led to an uncoordinated approach, with some officials trying to censor Telegram and others – including Russian President Vladimir Putin – seeking to co-opt milbloggers by integrating them into mainstream discourse. As the war drags on, however, the government is exercising increasing control over the platform, which will impact the reach and content of milbloggers, dissidents and other users.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89750321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218701
S. Soesanto
Abstract The IT Army of Ukraine is unlike any other cyber-threat actor. Created by the Ukraine Ministry of Digital Transformation two days after the Russian invasion, it has gathered, trained and directed thousands of people from inside and outside Ukraine to participate in persistent DDoS campaigns against Russian civilian infrastructure. In its current form, the IT Army is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international. Notably, whether it is lawful or unlawful remains unclear. Given its apparent adaptability and its continuing ability to recruit participants and mount cyber campaigns, it is positioned to become an advanced persistent threat.
乌克兰的IT军队不同于任何其他网络威胁行为者。在俄罗斯入侵两天后，乌克兰数字转型部(Ukraine Ministry of Digital Transformation)创建了该组织，该组织聚集、培训并指导了乌克兰境内外的数千人，参与针对俄罗斯民用基础设施的持续DDoS攻击活动。在目前的形式下，IT军队既不是民用的也不是军用的，既不是公共的也不是私人的，既不是本地的也不是国际的。值得注意的是，目前尚不清楚这是合法的还是非法的。鉴于其明显的适应性以及招募参与者和发起网络活动的持续能力，它被定位为一种先进的持续威胁。
{"title":"Ukraine’s IT Army","authors":"S. Soesanto","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218701","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The IT Army of Ukraine is unlike any other cyber-threat actor. Created by the Ukraine Ministry of Digital Transformation two days after the Russian invasion, it has gathered, trained and directed thousands of people from inside and outside Ukraine to participate in persistent DDoS campaigns against Russian civilian infrastructure. In its current form, the IT Army is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international. Notably, whether it is lawful or unlawful remains unclear. Given its apparent adaptability and its continuing ability to recruit participants and mount cyber campaigns, it is positioned to become an advanced persistent threat.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87852665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218697
L. Fix
Abstract Without security guarantees, Ukraine will not have a free and secure future. Despite the urgency of the issue, however, no clarity has so far arisen on the nature of security guarantees that might apply, their institutional context or their timeline. Giving Ukraine such guarantees sooner rather than later would send a message to Moscow that the West was in the war for the long haul, and that continuing a losing war was futile. Accordingly, guarantees should be shaped in parallel with Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The best option appears to be a security pact for Ukraine outside the NATO institutional context. While such a pact would not necessarily contemplate NATO membership, it would extend practically comparable assurances to Kyiv through a formalised support structure without leaving it vulnerable in the short term.
{"title":"The Future Is Now: Security Guarantees for Ukraine","authors":"L. Fix","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218697","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Without security guarantees, Ukraine will not have a free and secure future. Despite the urgency of the issue, however, no clarity has so far arisen on the nature of security guarantees that might apply, their institutional context or their timeline. Giving Ukraine such guarantees sooner rather than later would send a message to Moscow that the West was in the war for the long haul, and that continuing a losing war was futile. Accordingly, guarantees should be shaped in parallel with Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The best option appears to be a security pact for Ukraine outside the NATO institutional context. While such a pact would not necessarily contemplate NATO membership, it would extend practically comparable assurances to Kyiv through a formalised support structure without leaving it vulnerable in the short term.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78437606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705
Erik Jones
Abstract Western sanctions against Russia have proven less effective than expected. They have had a powerful impact on the Russian economy, but they neither deterred Russia from attacking, nor prevented the Russian government from financing its war efforts. This was only to be expected. Sanctions rarely achieve their political objectives. Still, there was no alternative. Western powers could not have failed to respond to Russian aggression. The question is one of consequences – not just for Russia, but for the West too. Agathe Demarais argues that the aggressive use of sanctions may backfire against American interests. She makes this argument in general terms; the sanctions on Russia are only among the most recent illustrations. US efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced microchip technology are even more misguided, Demarais suggests. But how did White House officials miss this? In fact, they probably did not. What Demarais calls ‘backfire’ may be intrinsic to the Biden administration’s ‘foreign policy for the middle class’.
{"title":"The Choice for Sanctions","authors":"Erik Jones","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Western sanctions against Russia have proven less effective than expected. They have had a powerful impact on the Russian economy, but they neither deterred Russia from attacking, nor prevented the Russian government from financing its war efforts. This was only to be expected. Sanctions rarely achieve their political objectives. Still, there was no alternative. Western powers could not have failed to respond to Russian aggression. The question is one of consequences – not just for Russia, but for the West too. Agathe Demarais argues that the aggressive use of sanctions may backfire against American interests. She makes this argument in general terms; the sanctions on Russia are only among the most recent illustrations. US efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced microchip technology are even more misguided, Demarais suggests. But how did White House officials miss this? In fact, they probably did not. What Demarais calls ‘backfire’ may be intrinsic to the Biden administration’s ‘foreign policy for the middle class’.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80380393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714
Dana H. Allin
Abstract The late Ronald Steel’s Walter Lippmann and the American Century chronicled the era of American ascendence though which Steel himself had lived. Like Lippman a sophisticated realist, he remained critical of US foreign policy, including, as he made clear in the pages of Survival in 2007, the Iraq War, which he speculated would produce an ‘Iraq syndrome’ that would discourage subsequent American military interventions. But the US, he added, would not be weakened ‘so grievously as to retreat into its shell. Such a retreat reflects neither America’s global interests nor the American character.’ Steel expected continuity in strategic affairs. On its face, the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supports this assessment, but given the genuine possibility that Donald Trump will again be the US president, we really do not know if the American Century will be extended or come to an end.
{"title":"Ronald Steel and the American Century","authors":"Dana H. Allin","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The late Ronald Steel’s Walter Lippmann and the American Century chronicled the era of American ascendence though which Steel himself had lived. Like Lippman a sophisticated realist, he remained critical of US foreign policy, including, as he made clear in the pages of Survival in 2007, the Iraq War, which he speculated would produce an ‘Iraq syndrome’ that would discourage subsequent American military interventions. But the US, he added, would not be weakened ‘so grievously as to retreat into its shell. Such a retreat reflects neither America’s global interests nor the American character.’ Steel expected continuity in strategic affairs. On its face, the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supports this assessment, but given the genuine possibility that Donald Trump will again be the US president, we really do not know if the American Century will be extended or come to an end.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88602529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699
James Crabtree, Evan A. Laksmana.
Abstract Many observers expected Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, to maintain a hedging approach towards the United States and China following his mid-2022 election. Instead, he has highlighted differences with Beijing and sought closer ties with Washington, completing a long-awaited expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US and authorising unprecedentedly large joint military exercises between the two countries. While China’s coercive behaviour towards the Philippines in the South China Sea is a major factor, Marcos has proven to be instinctively pro-American; the Armed Forces of the Philippines have generally supported the US alliance; and the US has worked harder to engage Manila. Unless Beijing dials back its activities in the South China Sea, Manila and Washington’s rejuvenated security relationship looks likely to endure as long as Marcos is in office.
许多观察人士预计，菲律宾总统马科斯(Ferdinand Marcos, Jr .)在2022年年中当选后，将对美国和中国保持一种对冲策略。相反，他强调了与北京方面的分歧，并寻求与华盛顿建立更紧密的联系，完成了人们期待已久的与美国的《加强防务合作协议》(Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement)的扩大，并授权两国举行前所未有的大规模联合军事演习。虽然中国在南中国海对菲律宾的胁迫行为是一个主要因素，但马科斯已被证明是本能地亲美;菲律宾武装部队总体上支持与美国结盟;美国也加大了与马尼拉接触的力度。除非北京减少在南中国海的活动，否则只要马科斯在任，马尼拉和华盛顿恢复的安全关系就可能持续下去。
{"title":"The Philippines’ Surprising Veer West","authors":"James Crabtree, Evan A. Laksmana.","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many observers expected Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, to maintain a hedging approach towards the United States and China following his mid-2022 election. Instead, he has highlighted differences with Beijing and sought closer ties with Washington, completing a long-awaited expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US and authorising unprecedentedly large joint military exercises between the two countries. While China’s coercive behaviour towards the Philippines in the South China Sea is a major factor, Marcos has proven to be instinctively pro-American; the Armed Forces of the Philippines have generally supported the US alliance; and the US has worked harder to engage Manila. Unless Beijing dials back its activities in the South China Sea, Manila and Washington’s rejuvenated security relationship looks likely to endure as long as Marcos is in office.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74122968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093
Nigel Gould-Davies
Abstract Russia’s war in Ukraine is changing Russia itself. It is subordinating stability and prosperity to geopolitical obsession, and is mobilising society around active support for costly, indefinite aggression. This is breaking stabilising bargains the regime has struck at home with elites and the wider population. The system is not yet close to crisis, but the strains it faces will deepen.
{"title":"How the War Has Changed Russia","authors":"Nigel Gould-Davies","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia’s war in Ukraine is changing Russia itself. It is subordinating stability and prosperity to geopolitical obsession, and is mobilising society around active support for costly, indefinite aggression. This is breaking stabilising bargains the regime has struck at home with elites and the wider population. The system is not yet close to crisis, but the strains it faces will deepen.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86597667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101
N. Crawford
Abstract US President Joe Biden has worked to repair the damage done to the transatlantic relationship by his predecessor, quickly realigning the United States with Europe on issues of energy and climate change. However, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced a raft of protectionist subsidies for US clean-energy industries and reignited tensions between the US and the European Union. The EU has warned that the IRA could damage the bloc’s industry and American critics suggest the act may trigger a new US–EU trade war. The Biden administration’s geopolitical internationalism is at odds with its geo-economic nationalism. The fact remains, however, that Europe is unlikely to be severely affected by the IRA. Moreover, European political leaders have threatened more aggressive responses to the IRA than they can deliver. A trade war is unlikely. It is more likely that booming green industries in the EU and US will open new avenues to cooperation between them.
{"title":"The Energy Transition, Protectionism and Transatlantic Relations","authors":"N. Crawford","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract US President Joe Biden has worked to repair the damage done to the transatlantic relationship by his predecessor, quickly realigning the United States with Europe on issues of energy and climate change. However, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced a raft of protectionist subsidies for US clean-energy industries and reignited tensions between the US and the European Union. The EU has warned that the IRA could damage the bloc’s industry and American critics suggest the act may trigger a new US–EU trade war. The Biden administration’s geopolitical internationalism is at odds with its geo-economic nationalism. The fact remains, however, that Europe is unlikely to be severely affected by the IRA. Moreover, European political leaders have threatened more aggressive responses to the IRA than they can deliver. A trade war is unlikely. It is more likely that booming green industries in the EU and US will open new avenues to cooperation between them.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84156229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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