Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218698
K. Kamp
Abstract In spring 2023, Germany presented its first National Security Strategy. A remarkably clear document by German standards, it reflects the fact that the Zeitenwende (turning point) precipitated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has already taken place in the minds of German policymakers and the German people, and signals a militarily stronger and politically more realistic Germany in the future. The protection of Germany and its allies tops the list of security-policy interests. Next comes strengthening European Union and NATO partnerships, as well as bilateral ones with France and the United States. Russia is seen as an imminent threat, and the West’s rivalry with China is considered a major challenge. The Bundeswehr is framed as the core security-policy instrument for countering threats and as the guarantor of Germany’s deterrence and defence capabilities. The document also explicitly enshrines the 2%-of-GDP target for defence spending.
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218706
C. Crocker
Wars of Revelation: The Transformative Effects of Military Intervention on Grand Strategy Rebecca Lissner. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021. £80.00/$99.00. 225 pp. Looking for the Good War: American Amnesia and the Violent Pursuit of Happiness Elizabeth D. Samet. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021. $28.00. 368 pp. The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century Moisés Naím. New York: St. Martin's Press, 2022. $29.99. 294 pp. The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats – and Our Response – Will Change the World Ian Bremmer. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2022. $17.99. 272 pp. The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War Mark Galeotti. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2022. £20.00/$26.00. 235 pp.
《启示战争:军事干预对大战略的变革性影响》丽贝卡·利斯纳著。牛津:牛津大学出版社，2021。£80.00 / 99.00美元。《寻找美好的战争:美国人的失忆和对幸福的暴力追求》，伊丽莎白·d·萨梅特著。纽约:Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021。28.00美元。368页，《权力的报复:独裁者如何为21世纪重塑政治》mois Naím。纽约:圣马丁出版社，2022。29.99美元。《危机的力量:三种威胁和我们的应对将如何改变世界》，共294页，伊恩·布雷默著。纽约:西蒙与舒斯特，2022。17.99美元。272页，《一切的武器化:战争新方式的实地指南》，马克·加莱奥蒂。康涅狄格州纽黑文:耶鲁大学出版社，2022年。£20.00 / 26.00美元。235页。
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712
R. Steel
Abstract Ronald Steel, who died on 7 May 2023 in Washington DC, was an eminent writer and historian perhaps best known for his biography of Walter Lippmann. In 2006 he participated in an IISS/Council on Foreign Relations symposium in New York on the impact of the Iraq War on the future of United States foreign and defence policy, for which he wrote this essay, published in the Spring 2007 issue of Survival. We are republishing the article in full.
{"title":"An Iraq Syndrome?","authors":"R. Steel","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Ronald Steel, who died on 7 May 2023 in Washington DC, was an eminent writer and historian perhaps best known for his biography of Walter Lippmann. In 2006 he participated in an IISS/Council on Foreign Relations symposium in New York on the impact of the Iraq War on the future of United States foreign and defence policy, for which he wrote this essay, published in the Spring 2007 issue of Survival. We are republishing the article in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"603 1","pages":"183 - 192"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74723374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716
Hannah Aries, Bastian. Giegerich, Tim Lawrenson
Abstract Significant increases in defence spending in European NATO and European Union member states are intended to address long-standing capability shortfalls, support the modernisation and growth of armed forces, replenish stocks, and fill gaps created by the transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine. Yet Europe’s defence-industrial base will struggle to meet this increased demand in the short term. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has revealed Russia’s broader threat to Europe, while the United States’ ‘pivot to Asia’ is likely to accelerate and reduce the American role in Europe’s defence. Accordingly, Europe needs an epochal shift in political thinking, coupled with significantly higher defence spending and a determined effort to reset public perceptions of the need for strong defence. None of these requirements currently looks assured.
{"title":"The Guns of Europe: Defence-industrial Challenges in a Time of War","authors":"Hannah Aries, Bastian. Giegerich, Tim Lawrenson","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Significant increases in defence spending in European NATO and European Union member states are intended to address long-standing capability shortfalls, support the modernisation and growth of armed forces, replenish stocks, and fill gaps created by the transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine. Yet Europe’s defence-industrial base will struggle to meet this increased demand in the short term. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has revealed Russia’s broader threat to Europe, while the United States’ ‘pivot to Asia’ is likely to accelerate and reduce the American role in Europe’s defence. Accordingly, Europe needs an epochal shift in political thinking, coupled with significantly higher defence spending and a determined effort to reset public perceptions of the need for strong defence. None of these requirements currently looks assured.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"40 1","pages":"7 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80924392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704
Daniel Sobelman
Abstract In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah. The Houthis’ strategic behaviour and communications indicate that they have attempted to succeed against Saudi Arabia in the same way that Hizbullah has succeeded against Israel: to harness their long-range missiles as a means of subjecting their stronger opponents to limitations and ‘rules of the game’. So far, the Houthis have been far less successful than Hizbullah. Nevertheless, the Houthis have become an integral part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’.
{"title":"Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah","authors":"Daniel Sobelman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218704","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah. The Houthis’ strategic behaviour and communications indicate that they have attempted to succeed against Saudi Arabia in the same way that Hizbullah has succeeded against Israel: to harness their long-range missiles as a means of subjecting their stronger opponents to limitations and ‘rules of the game’. So far, the Houthis have been far less successful than Hizbullah. Nevertheless, the Houthis have become an integral part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"52 1","pages":"129 - 144"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75946321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218701
S. Soesanto
Abstract The IT Army of Ukraine is unlike any other cyber-threat actor. Created by the Ukraine Ministry of Digital Transformation two days after the Russian invasion, it has gathered, trained and directed thousands of people from inside and outside Ukraine to participate in persistent DDoS campaigns against Russian civilian infrastructure. In its current form, the IT Army is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international. Notably, whether it is lawful or unlawful remains unclear. Given its apparent adaptability and its continuing ability to recruit participants and mount cyber campaigns, it is positioned to become an advanced persistent threat.
乌克兰的IT军队不同于任何其他网络威胁行为者。在俄罗斯入侵两天后，乌克兰数字转型部(Ukraine Ministry of Digital Transformation)创建了该组织，该组织聚集、培训并指导了乌克兰境内外的数千人，参与针对俄罗斯民用基础设施的持续DDoS攻击活动。在目前的形式下，IT军队既不是民用的也不是军用的，既不是公共的也不是私人的，既不是本地的也不是国际的。值得注意的是，目前尚不清楚这是合法的还是非法的。鉴于其明显的适应性以及招募参与者和发起网络活动的持续能力，它被定位为一种先进的持续威胁。
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703
S. Farbman
Abstract Replacing banned American social-media applications and boasting encryption and other privacy protections, Telegram has become the social media of choice in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its popularity and the growth of a new community of amateur military correspondents (‘milbloggers’) communicating directly with users have made Telegram an increasingly important part of the war effort and the political narrative of the war. Criticism of the Russian military and the Ministry of Defence has become commonplace on the social-media platform, increasingly affecting narratives discussed on Russian television. The lack of a cohesive government strategy with respect to Telegram has led to an uncoordinated approach, with some officials trying to censor Telegram and others – including Russian President Vladimir Putin – seeking to co-opt milbloggers by integrating them into mainstream discourse. As the war drags on, however, the government is exercising increasing control over the platform, which will impact the reach and content of milbloggers, dissidents and other users.
{"title":"Telegram, ‘Milbloggers’ and the Russian State","authors":"S. Farbman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218703","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Replacing banned American social-media applications and boasting encryption and other privacy protections, Telegram has become the social media of choice in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its popularity and the growth of a new community of amateur military correspondents (‘milbloggers’) communicating directly with users have made Telegram an increasingly important part of the war effort and the political narrative of the war. Criticism of the Russian military and the Ministry of Defence has become commonplace on the social-media platform, increasingly affecting narratives discussed on Russian television. The lack of a cohesive government strategy with respect to Telegram has led to an uncoordinated approach, with some officials trying to censor Telegram and others – including Russian President Vladimir Putin – seeking to co-opt milbloggers by integrating them into mainstream discourse. As the war drags on, however, the government is exercising increasing control over the platform, which will impact the reach and content of milbloggers, dissidents and other users.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"7 1","pages":"107 - 128"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89750321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218697
L. Fix
Abstract Without security guarantees, Ukraine will not have a free and secure future. Despite the urgency of the issue, however, no clarity has so far arisen on the nature of security guarantees that might apply, their institutional context or their timeline. Giving Ukraine such guarantees sooner rather than later would send a message to Moscow that the West was in the war for the long haul, and that continuing a losing war was futile. Accordingly, guarantees should be shaped in parallel with Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The best option appears to be a security pact for Ukraine outside the NATO institutional context. While such a pact would not necessarily contemplate NATO membership, it would extend practically comparable assurances to Kyiv through a formalised support structure without leaving it vulnerable in the short term.
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705
Erik Jones
Abstract Western sanctions against Russia have proven less effective than expected. They have had a powerful impact on the Russian economy, but they neither deterred Russia from attacking, nor prevented the Russian government from financing its war efforts. This was only to be expected. Sanctions rarely achieve their political objectives. Still, there was no alternative. Western powers could not have failed to respond to Russian aggression. The question is one of consequences – not just for Russia, but for the West too. Agathe Demarais argues that the aggressive use of sanctions may backfire against American interests. She makes this argument in general terms; the sanctions on Russia are only among the most recent illustrations. US efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced microchip technology are even more misguided, Demarais suggests. But how did White House officials miss this? In fact, they probably did not. What Demarais calls ‘backfire’ may be intrinsic to the Biden administration’s ‘foreign policy for the middle class’.
{"title":"The Choice for Sanctions","authors":"Erik Jones","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218705","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Western sanctions against Russia have proven less effective than expected. They have had a powerful impact on the Russian economy, but they neither deterred Russia from attacking, nor prevented the Russian government from financing its war efforts. This was only to be expected. Sanctions rarely achieve their political objectives. Still, there was no alternative. Western powers could not have failed to respond to Russian aggression. The question is one of consequences – not just for Russia, but for the West too. Agathe Demarais argues that the aggressive use of sanctions may backfire against American interests. She makes this argument in general terms; the sanctions on Russia are only among the most recent illustrations. US efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced microchip technology are even more misguided, Demarais suggests. But how did White House officials miss this? In fact, they probably did not. What Demarais calls ‘backfire’ may be intrinsic to the Biden administration’s ‘foreign policy for the middle class’.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"23 1","pages":"145 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80380393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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