Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062
Juan Pablo Medina Bickel, Irene Mia
Abstract The Amazon region is home to nearly half of the world’s tropical forests, which are key to carbon absorption, and the continent has abundant reserves of minerals critical for the energy transition and the development of low-carbon technologies, notably lithium. If skilfully deployed, South America’s rising importance for global climate mitigation and energy transition could engender more sustainable economic models at home, as well as reinforce its clout in global decision-making. Social tensions around mining and rising environmental crime could, however, diminish focus from global-projection efforts and impede building geopolitical influence through the control of resources. South America’s success in this endeavour will depend on whether regional governments can adopt policies on critical minerals, energy transition and sustainable mining that furnish predictable guidance for investors as regional partners.
{"title":"Geopolitics and Climate Change: The Significance of South America","authors":"Juan Pablo Medina Bickel, Irene Mia","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Amazon region is home to nearly half of the world’s tropical forests, which are key to carbon absorption, and the continent has abundant reserves of minerals critical for the energy transition and the development of low-carbon technologies, notably lithium. If skilfully deployed, South America’s rising importance for global climate mitigation and energy transition could engender more sustainable economic models at home, as well as reinforce its clout in global decision-making. Social tensions around mining and rising environmental crime could, however, diminish focus from global-projection efforts and impede building geopolitical influence through the control of resources. South America’s success in this endeavour will depend on whether regional governments can adopt policies on critical minerals, energy transition and sustainable mining that furnish predictable guidance for investors as regional partners.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"8 1","pages":"123 - 138"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80146051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067
J. Harper
Abstract The latest full-length study of the life of US diplomat and historian George F. Kennan (1904–2005) attempts to rectify what its author, Professor Frank Costigliola, believes to be the shortcomings of John Lewis Gaddis’s authorised biography, published in 2011. As a treatment of Kennan’s early life and career, of his post-State Department role as a commentator and ‘sage’, and in particular of its subject’s personal life and character, the book is unlikely to be matched. For all its virtues, however, it has a striking and rather surprising deficiency: readers must look elsewhere for a full account of its protagonist’s role as a policymaker in the years 1946–50. One need not agree with Costigliola’s assessment of Kennan’s historical stature to believe there is profit to be had in imagining what his message would be today on a range of subjects: the environment, the future of Ukraine and US–Russia relations, European strategic autonomy and the fragility of American democracy.
{"title":"Seeking the Essential Kennan","authors":"J. Harper","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The latest full-length study of the life of US diplomat and historian George F. Kennan (1904–2005) attempts to rectify what its author, Professor Frank Costigliola, believes to be the shortcomings of John Lewis Gaddis’s authorised biography, published in 2011. As a treatment of Kennan’s early life and career, of his post-State Department role as a commentator and ‘sage’, and in particular of its subject’s personal life and character, the book is unlikely to be matched. For all its virtues, however, it has a striking and rather surprising deficiency: readers must look elsewhere for a full account of its protagonist’s role as a policymaker in the years 1946–50. One need not agree with Costigliola’s assessment of Kennan’s historical stature to believe there is profit to be had in imagining what his message would be today on a range of subjects: the environment, the future of Ukraine and US–Russia relations, European strategic autonomy and the fragility of American democracy.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"8 1","pages":"169 - 178"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87835049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064
John Jenkins
Abstract The broad story that Steven Simon’s Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East tells is one of arrogance and ignorance on the part of American leaders. In essence a realist, Simon is engagingly opinionated, sharp and judgemental. For him, 1979 is the moment the United States abandoned any previous caution about direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts and began to act as if it believed the region mattered more than it actually did. This is a serious charge. Simon makes the case for the prosecution robustly and with ample evidence from first-hand experience, archival research and contemporaneous press reporting. But energy, extremism and the preservation of the rules-based international order could still explain and justify US involvement. It may not be that America got stupid, but rather that the rest of the world got smart.
{"title":"The US in the Middle East: Stupid or Merely Fallible?","authors":"John Jenkins","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The broad story that Steven Simon’s Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East tells is one of arrogance and ignorance on the part of American leaders. In essence a realist, Simon is engagingly opinionated, sharp and judgemental. For him, 1979 is the moment the United States abandoned any previous caution about direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts and began to act as if it believed the region mattered more than it actually did. This is a serious charge. Simon makes the case for the prosecution robustly and with ample evidence from first-hand experience, archival research and contemporaneous press reporting. But energy, extremism and the preservation of the rules-based international order could still explain and justify US involvement. It may not be that America got stupid, but rather that the rest of the world got smart.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"32 1","pages":"139 - 152"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84247875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract David P. Calleo, who died on 15 June 2023 at the age of 88, was one of the most original scholars of his generation on subjects ranging from the international economy to US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, European politics and the history of ideas. Dean Acheson Professor of European Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Calleo was also, from 2008 until just before his death, a Contributing Editor to Survival, which published some two dozen of his essays and reviews. This essay, one of his earliest contributions, first appeared in these pages in 1999. We are republishing it here in full.
大卫·p·卡里奥(David P. Calleo)于2023年6月15日逝世，享年88岁。他是同代人中最具独创性的学者之一，研究领域从国际经济到美国外交政策、跨大西洋关系、欧洲政治和思想史。约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院(SAIS)欧洲研究学院院长艾奇逊教授，从2008年到去世前，他还担任《生存》杂志的特约编辑，发表了二十多篇文章和评论。这篇文章是他最早的贡献之一，于1999年首次出现在本刊。我们在这里全文转载。
{"title":"The Strategic Implications of the Euro","authors":"D. Calleo","doi":"10.1080/713660049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713660049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract David P. Calleo, who died on 15 June 2023 at the age of 88, was one of the most original scholars of his generation on subjects ranging from the international economy to US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, European politics and the history of ideas. Dean Acheson Professor of European Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Calleo was also, from 2008 until just before his death, a Contributing Editor to Survival, which published some two dozen of his essays and reviews. This essay, one of his earliest contributions, first appeared in these pages in 1999. We are republishing it here in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"4 1","pages":"201 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86520188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059
Mathieu Duchâtel
Abstract This essay explores the question of restricting China’s access to European dual-use technology. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party is transforming China into a techno-security state. The country’s innovation-driven development strategy and strengthened push for military–civil fusion, fuelled by powerful industrial policies, have made technology exchanges with China a challenging policy issue in Europe. The issue is not only a bilateral one with China – it constitutes a challenge for the management of the transatlantic alliance as well, given that US intervention has at times been a decisive factor shaping European policies vis-à-vis China, mostly through targeted action regarding specific issues of technology transfers. The European Union has developed a toolbox of defensive instruments in the past five years to address asymmetries and imbalances in EU–China trade and investment relations, providing European decision-makers with the instruments to manage technology transfers to China. This toolbox still needs to be perfected, however. The EU is only now starting to develop a political narrative linking China’s military build-up, its powerful industrial and innovation policies, and Xi’s vision for Chinese leadership in world affairs. In the absence of a shared European vision, technology transfers will remain a sporadic irritant in transatlantic relations.
{"title":"Europe’s China Problem: How Not to Feed Beijing’s Military–Civil Fusion","authors":"Mathieu Duchâtel","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This essay explores the question of restricting China’s access to European dual-use technology. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party is transforming China into a techno-security state. The country’s innovation-driven development strategy and strengthened push for military–civil fusion, fuelled by powerful industrial policies, have made technology exchanges with China a challenging policy issue in Europe. The issue is not only a bilateral one with China – it constitutes a challenge for the management of the transatlantic alliance as well, given that US intervention has at times been a decisive factor shaping European policies vis-à-vis China, mostly through targeted action regarding specific issues of technology transfers. The European Union has developed a toolbox of defensive instruments in the past five years to address asymmetries and imbalances in EU–China trade and investment relations, providing European decision-makers with the instruments to manage technology transfers to China. This toolbox still needs to be perfected, however. The EU is only now starting to develop a political narrative linking China’s military build-up, its powerful industrial and innovation policies, and Xi’s vision for Chinese leadership in world affairs. In the absence of a shared European vision, technology transfers will remain a sporadic irritant in transatlantic relations.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"65 1","pages":"55 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87297704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074
J. Dobbins
Abstract James Dobbins, who died on 3 July 2023 at the age of 81, was one of his generation’s pre-eminent diplomats and foreign-policy scholars. He contributed more than a dozen articles to Survival, including this article, among the most-read articles in the journal’s history, first published in 2012. We are republishing it here in full.
{"title":"War with China","authors":"J. Dobbins","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract James Dobbins, who died on 3 July 2023 at the age of 81, was one of his generation’s pre-eminent diplomats and foreign-policy scholars. He contributed more than a dozen articles to Survival, including this article, among the most-read articles in the journal’s history, first published in 2012. We are republishing it here in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"47 1","pages":"221 - 238"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85603209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054
Stephen F. Szabo
Germany’s strategic reorientation under the Olaf Scholz-led coalition means the end of the civilian-power paradigm and the return of garrison states to European security following the shock of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Lessons can be drawn from the previous revolution in Germany’s strategic culture that took place in the 1950s under Konrad Adenauer and from the failures of adaptation in Germany’s security policies since reunification in 1990. Scholz leads a Germany facing a very different domestic and European political constellation than the one Adenauer faced. The role of economic actors and interests is much different in Germany’s relationship with Russia. Scholz also has a less predictable ally in a United States that is divided at home and faces a growing rival in China. Yet, as in Adenauer’s day, the perception of a direct threat and consequent urgency of alliance solidarity have helped diminish partisan differences and legacy biases.
{"title":"Germany’s Strategic Reorientations, Present and Past","authors":"Stephen F. Szabo","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054","url":null,"abstract":"Germany’s strategic reorientation under the Olaf Scholz-led coalition means the end of the civilian-power paradigm and the return of garrison states to European security following the shock of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Lessons can be drawn from the previous revolution in Germany’s strategic culture that took place in the 1950s under Konrad Adenauer and from the failures of adaptation in Germany’s security policies since reunification in 1990. Scholz leads a Germany facing a very different domestic and European political constellation than the one Adenauer faced. The role of economic actors and interests is much different in Germany’s relationship with Russia. Scholz also has a less predictable ally in a United States that is divided at home and faces a growing rival in China. Yet, as in Adenauer’s day, the perception of a direct threat and consequent urgency of alliance solidarity have helped diminish partisan differences and legacy biases.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"124 1","pages":"31 - 39"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76175505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709
R. Crandall, Britta H. Crandall
Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico: How Politics Destroyed an Economic Miracle A.W. Maldonado. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2021. $35.00. 266 pp. The Left Hand of Capital: Neoliberalism and the Left in Chile Fernando Ignacio Leiva. Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2021. $33.95. 408 pp. The Southern Cone and the Origins of Pan America, 1888–1933 Mark J. Petersen. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2022. $65.00. 344 pp. The Dope: The Real History of the Mexican Drug Trade Benjamin T. Smith. London: Ebury Press, 2021. £20.00. 448 pp. Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela William Neuman. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2022. $29.99. 352 pp.
{"title":"Latin America","authors":"R. Crandall, Britta H. Crandall","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709","url":null,"abstract":"Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico: How Politics Destroyed an Economic Miracle A.W. Maldonado. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2021. $35.00. 266 pp. The Left Hand of Capital: Neoliberalism and the Left in Chile Fernando Ignacio Leiva. Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2021. $33.95. 408 pp. The Southern Cone and the Origins of Pan America, 1888–1933 Mark J. Petersen. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2022. $65.00. 344 pp. The Dope: The Real History of the Mexican Drug Trade Benjamin T. Smith. London: Ebury Press, 2021. £20.00. 448 pp. Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela William Neuman. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2022. $29.99. 352 pp.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"16 1","pages":"176 - 182"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82145406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694
N. Childs
Abstract As it has unfolded, the Russia–Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.
{"title":"The Black Sea in the Shadow of War","authors":"N. Childs","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As it has unfolded, the Russia–Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"76 1","pages":"25 - 36"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78687754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695
Barak Mendelsohn, Dominic Tierney
Abstract For almost a century, enemies have tended to see the United States as a ‘paper tiger’ that is materially strong but also beatable in war because Americans have no stomach for the fight. Adversaries recognise US industrial and technological might but conclude that because the American public is casualty averse and US soldiers have weak morale, they can overcome the Americans with a long-war strategy. Four factors are likely to play a role in encouraging states to view the US in this way: rhetoric, rationalism, psychology and ideology. The paper-tiger image is significant because it can influence both the enemy’s decision to fight and its strategy, and offers insights into emerging threats, including that from China.
{"title":"Paper Tiger: The Enemy Image of America","authors":"Barak Mendelsohn, Dominic Tierney","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For almost a century, enemies have tended to see the United States as a ‘paper tiger’ that is materially strong but also beatable in war because Americans have no stomach for the fight. Adversaries recognise US industrial and technological might but conclude that because the American public is casualty averse and US soldiers have weak morale, they can overcome the Americans with a long-war strategy. Four factors are likely to play a role in encouraging states to view the US in this way: rhetoric, rationalism, psychology and ideology. The paper-tiger image is significant because it can influence both the enemy’s decision to fight and its strategy, and offers insights into emerging threats, including that from China.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"17 1","pages":"37 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88551366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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