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Ronald Steel and the American Century 罗纳德·斯蒂尔和美国世纪
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714
Dana H. Allin
Abstract The late Ronald Steel’s Walter Lippmann and the American Century chronicled the era of American ascendence though which Steel himself had lived. Like Lippman a sophisticated realist, he remained critical of US foreign policy, including, as he made clear in the pages of Survival in 2007, the Iraq War, which he speculated would produce an ‘Iraq syndrome’ that would discourage subsequent American military interventions. But the US, he added, would not be weakened ‘so grievously as to retreat into its shell. Such a retreat reflects neither America’s global interests nor the American character.’ Steel expected continuity in strategic affairs. On its face, the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supports this assessment, but given the genuine possibility that Donald Trump will again be the US president, we really do not know if the American Century will be extended or come to an end.
已故罗纳德·斯蒂尔的《沃尔特·李普曼与美国世纪》记录了斯蒂尔本人所经历的美国崛起时代。和老练的现实主义者李普曼一样,他一直对美国的外交政策持批评态度,包括他在2007年的《生存》一书中明确指出的伊拉克战争,他推测伊拉克战争将产生“伊拉克综合症”,从而阻碍美国随后的军事干预。但他补充说,美国不会被削弱到“退到壳里去”的地步。这种退让既不符合美国的全球利益,也不符合美国人的性格。Steel希望战略事务保持连续性。从表面上看,拜登政府对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的回应支持了这一评估,但考虑到唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)再次成为美国总统的真正可能性,我们真的不知道美国世纪是会延长还是会结束。
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引用次数: 0
The Philippines’ Surprising Veer West 菲律宾出人意料地转向西方
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699
James Crabtree, Evan A. Laksmana.
Abstract Many observers expected Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, to maintain a hedging approach towards the United States and China following his mid-2022 election. Instead, he has highlighted differences with Beijing and sought closer ties with Washington, completing a long-awaited expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US and authorising unprecedentedly large joint military exercises between the two countries. While China’s coercive behaviour towards the Philippines in the South China Sea is a major factor, Marcos has proven to be instinctively pro-American; the Armed Forces of the Philippines have generally supported the US alliance; and the US has worked harder to engage Manila. Unless Beijing dials back its activities in the South China Sea, Manila and Washington’s rejuvenated security relationship looks likely to endure as long as Marcos is in office.
许多观察人士预计,菲律宾总统马科斯(Ferdinand Marcos, Jr .)在2022年年中当选后,将对美国和中国保持一种对冲策略。相反,他强调了与北京方面的分歧,并寻求与华盛顿建立更紧密的联系,完成了人们期待已久的与美国的《加强防务合作协议》(Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement)的扩大,并授权两国举行前所未有的大规模联合军事演习。虽然中国在南中国海对菲律宾的胁迫行为是一个主要因素,但马科斯已被证明是本能地亲美;菲律宾武装部队总体上支持与美国结盟;美国也加大了与马尼拉接触的力度。除非北京减少在南中国海的活动,否则只要马科斯在任,马尼拉和华盛顿恢复的安全关系就可能持续下去。
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引用次数: 0
Zeitenwende One Year On 一年过去了
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193095
Bastian. Giegerich, Benjamin Schreer
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, or historical turning point, for German foreign and defence policy. Expectations of profound German geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic transformation were raised both in Germany and among Berlin’s allies. One year later, Germany’s greatest success has come in the geo-economic arena, where progress has been made to reduce Germany’s energy imports from Russia. Geopolitically, the picture is less convincing. While Scholz has committed to the defence of NATO territory against potential Russian aggression, it is not obvious whether the German government really perceives Russia as a direct threat to the country. Berlin has yet to formulate a convincing geopolitical leadership role in Europe, and it remains to be seen if the new defence minister, Boris Pistorius, will succeed in giving shape to much-needed Bundeswehr reform and resolve major readiness and procurement challenges. Consistent pressure from NATO allies will be needed to help bring about major change to Germany’s strategic and defence policy.
作为对俄罗斯2022年2月24日入侵乌克兰的回应,德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz)宣布了德国外交和国防政策的历史转折点。德国国内和盟国都对德国的地缘政治、地缘战略和地缘经济转型产生了深刻的期望。一年后,德国在地缘经济领域取得了最大的成功,在减少从俄罗斯进口能源方面取得了进展。从地缘政治角度来看,这幅图景不那么令人信服。尽管肖尔茨承诺保护北约领土免受俄罗斯的潜在侵略,但德国政府是否真的将俄罗斯视为对该国的直接威胁,目前尚不清楚。柏林尚未在欧洲确立一个令人信服的地缘政治领导角色,新任国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托瑞斯(Boris Pistorius)能否成功推动亟需的联邦国防军改革,并解决主要的战备和采购挑战,还有待观察。北约盟国的持续施压将有助于德国的战略和国防政策发生重大变化。
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引用次数: 0
About European Sovereignty 关于欧洲主权
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193100
Pierre Buhler
Abstract The coining of the concept of ‘European sovereignty’ by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 has prompted a heated debate, reviving disputes over supranationality, the nation-state and democracy that have resonated since the inception of the European project. Macron’s intervention came at a time when a flurry of crises compelled the European Union to move from its ambition of being a ‘normative power’ to living through its ‘Machiavellian moment’, against the backdrop of the rise of new global powers and existential threats for the security of the Union and its member states. But the term ‘European sovereignty’ is a misnomer. The real issue is one of power, not of sovereignty. Power proceeds from command, hardly an attribute of the complex shared decision-making process of the EU, leaving the objective of becoming a fully-fledged power out of reach for the European polity.
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在2017年提出的“欧洲主权”概念引发了一场激烈的辩论,重新引发了关于超国家、民族国家和民主的争论,这些争论自欧洲项目启动以来一直在引起共鸣。马克龙的干预正值一系列危机迫使欧盟在新的全球大国崛起和欧盟及其成员国安全面临生存威胁的背景下,从“规范大国”的雄心转向“马基雅维利时刻”。但“欧洲主权”一词并不恰当。真正的问题是权力问题,而不是主权问题。权力来自命令,这几乎不是欧盟复杂的共同决策过程的一个特征,这使得成为一个成熟大国的目标对欧洲政体来说遥不可及。
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引用次数: 0
Historical Imagination and the Unspoken Assumptions of Our Age 历史想象和我们这个时代的潜规则
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193110
Benjamin Rhode
Abstract This article discusses changing conceptions of how the study of history should best inform present challenges. It contrasts the ‘historical sensibility’ embodied by Michael Howard with the teleological ‘historicism’ decried by Karl Popper. It explores what Howard termed the historical ‘imagination’ – the recreation of the belief structures which made historical events and developments possible – and his argument of how the study of history, including the history of foreign countries, might cultivate cultural empathy. It also examines James Joll’s concept of ‘unspoken assumptions’ and considers how it and Howard’s ideas might illuminate our understanding of our own age.
本文讨论了历史研究如何最好地反映当前挑战的观念变化。它将迈克尔·霍华德所体现的“历史敏感性”与卡尔·波普尔所谴责的目的论“历史决定论”进行了对比。这本书探讨了霍华德所谓的历史“想象”——对使历史事件和发展成为可能的信仰结构的再创造——以及他关于历史研究(包括外国历史)如何培养文化同理心的论点。它还研究了詹姆斯·乔尔的“未言明假设”概念,并考虑了它和霍华德的观点如何启发我们对自己时代的理解。
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引用次数: 0
How the War Has Changed Russia 战争如何改变了俄罗斯
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093
Nigel Gould-Davies
Abstract Russia’s war in Ukraine is changing Russia itself. It is subordinating stability and prosperity to geopolitical obsession, and is mobilising society around active support for costly, indefinite aggression. This is breaking stabilising bargains the regime has struck at home with elites and the wider population. The system is not yet close to crisis, but the strains it faces will deepen.
俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争正在改变俄罗斯自身。它正在把稳定和繁荣置于对地缘政治的痴迷之下,并在动员社会积极支持代价高昂、无限期的侵略。这打破了该政权在国内与精英和广大民众达成的稳定协议。这个系统还没有接近危机,但它面临的压力将会加深。
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引用次数: 1
The Energy Transition, Protectionism and Transatlantic Relations 能源转型、保护主义和跨大西洋关系
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101
N. Crawford
Abstract US President Joe Biden has worked to repair the damage done to the transatlantic relationship by his predecessor, quickly realigning the United States with Europe on issues of energy and climate change. However, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced a raft of protectionist subsidies for US clean-energy industries and reignited tensions between the US and the European Union. The EU has warned that the IRA could damage the bloc’s industry and American critics suggest the act may trigger a new US–EU trade war. The Biden administration’s geopolitical internationalism is at odds with its geo-economic nationalism. The fact remains, however, that Europe is unlikely to be severely affected by the IRA. Moreover, European political leaders have threatened more aggressive responses to the IRA than they can deliver. A trade war is unlikely. It is more likely that booming green industries in the EU and US will open new avenues to cooperation between them.
美国总统拜登致力于修复前任对跨大西洋关系造成的损害,在能源和气候变化问题上迅速与欧洲重新结盟。然而,美国2022年的《通货膨胀削减法案》(IRA)为美国清洁能源行业引入了大量保护主义补贴,并重新点燃了美国与欧盟之间的紧张关系。欧盟警告称,IRA可能会损害欧盟的产业,美国的批评人士表示,该法案可能会引发一场新的美欧贸易战。拜登政府的地缘政治国际主义与地缘经济民族主义是矛盾的。然而,事实仍然是,欧洲不太可能受到爱尔兰共和军的严重影响。此外,欧洲政治领导人威胁要对爱尔兰共和军采取比他们所能做到的更为激进的回应。贸易战不太可能发生。更有可能的是,欧美绿色产业的蓬勃发展将为双方的合作开辟新的途径。
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引用次数: 1
Middle East 中东
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193107
Ray Takeyh
The Contemporary Middle East in an Age of Upheaval James L. Gelvin, ed. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2021. $28.00. 368 pp. Revolutionary Life: The Everyday of the Arab Spring Asef Bayat. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021. £30.95/$35.00. 336 pp. The Unfinished History of the Iran–Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Annie Tracy Samuel. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021. £75.00. 302 pp. Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil War in the Middle East Paul Salem and Ross Harrison, eds. London: I.B. Tauris, 2022. 2nd ed. £19.99. 288 pp. The Struggle for Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951–1954 David Painter and Gregory Brew. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 2023. $32.95. 324 pp.
剧变时代的当代中东詹姆斯·l·盖尔文主编,加州斯坦福大学:斯坦福大学出版社,2021年。28.00美元。《革命的生活:阿拉伯之春的日常》,共368页。剑桥,马萨诸塞州:哈佛大学出版社,2021年。£30.95 / 35.00美元。《两伊战争未完成的历史:信仰、火力和伊朗革命卫队》,共336页。剑桥:剑桥大学出版社,2021。£75.00。《逃离冲突陷阱:走向结束中东内战》,共302页,保罗·塞勒姆和罗斯·哈里森编。伦敦:I.B.金牛座,2022。第二版,19.99英镑。《为伊朗而战:石油、独裁和冷战,1951-1954》,大卫·佩因特和格里高利·布鲁著。教堂山,北卡罗来纳州:北卡罗来纳大学出版社,2023。32.95美元。324页。
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引用次数: 6
Ukraine’s Strategy of Attrition 乌克兰的消耗战略
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193092
Franz-Stefan Gady, M. Kofman
Abstract Attrition has been both Ukraine’s and Russia’s primary approach at the tactical level. Ukraine’s preferred way of war centres on the use of artillery fire to facilitate decisive attritional effects on the opposing force, which it then exploits with manoeuvre. This is not unexpected, as most major conventional wars feature attrition as well as manoeuvre and reconstitution. Western assistance has brought Ukraine to an impressive point, but may not yield a fires advantage for Ukraine sufficient to ensure further operational breakthroughs or strategic gains. Advanced Western weapons, such as the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), have not allowed Ukraine to avoid attritional combat, particularly in its counter-offensive in Kherson. Even with more effective wide-scale combined-arms training and precision strikes, as contemplated, future Ukrainian gains are likely to be incremental and costly unless the Russian military significantly misspends combat power in its own offensive operations.
在战术层面上,消耗战一直是乌克兰和俄罗斯的主要手段。乌克兰更喜欢的战争方式集中在使用炮火,以促进对对方部队的决定性消耗效应,然后通过机动加以利用。这并不意外,因为大多数主要的常规战争都以消耗战、机动战和重组战为特征。西方的援助让乌克兰达到了一个令人印象深刻的地步,但可能无法为乌克兰带来足够的优势,以确保进一步的行动突破或战略收益。先进的西方武器,如美国提供的高机动火炮火箭系统(HIMARS),并没有让乌克兰避免消耗战,特别是在赫尔森的反攻中。即使像预期的那样进行更有效的大规模联合训练和精确打击,乌克兰未来的收获也可能是渐进式的,而且代价高昂,除非俄罗斯军方在自己的进攻行动中严重滥用作战力量。
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引用次数: 2
United States 美国
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193108
David C. Unger
Silent Invasion: The Untold Story of the Trump Administration, Covid-19, and Preventing the Next Pandemic Before It’s Too Late Deborah Birx. New York: Harper, 2022. $29.99. 506 pp. Democracy’s Chief Executive: Interpreting the Constitution and Defining the Future of the Presidency Peter M. Shane. Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 2022. £25.00/$29.95. 304 pp. Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s Nicole Hemmer. New York: Basic Books, 2022. $32.00. 368 pp. Diplomacy and Capitalism: The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Relations Christopher R.W. Dietrich, ed. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2022. $29.95. 302 pp. Before the Religious Right: Liberal Protestants, Human Rights, and the Polarization of the United States Gene Zubovich. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2022. $45.00. 391 pp.
无声的入侵:特朗普政府不为人知的故事,Covid-19,以及在为时已晚之前预防下一次大流行。纽约:哈珀出版社,2022。29.99美元。《民主的首席执行官:解释宪法和定义总统的未来》,共506页。奥克兰,加州:加州大学出版社,2022年。£25.00 / 29.95美元。《党徒:在20世纪90年代重塑美国政治的保守派革命者》,共304页。纽约:Basic Books, 2022。32.00美元。368页,《外交与资本主义:美国外交关系的政治经济学》,克里斯托弗·r·w·迪特里希主编,宾夕法尼亚州费城:宾夕法尼亚大学出版社,2022年。29.95美元。《宗教权利之前:自由主义新教徒、人权和美国的两极分化》,共302页。费城,宾夕法尼亚州:宾夕法尼亚大学出版社,2022。45.00美元。391页。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Survival
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