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Russia and Eurasia 俄罗斯和欧亚大陆
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172864
Angela E. Stent
The Story of Russia Orlando Figes. London: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2022. £25.00. 348 pp. Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan Joanna Lillis. London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2022. £12.00. 352 pp. The Fight of Our Lives: My Time with Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s Battle for Democracy, and What It Means for the World Luliia Mendel. New York: One Signal Publishers, 2022. $27.99. 240 pp. The Russia Conundrum: How the West Fell for Putin’s Power Gambit – And How to Fix It Mikhail Khodorkovsky with Martin Sixsmith. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2022. $29.99. 352 pp. Putin’s Trolls: On the Frontlines of Russia’s Information War Against the World Jessikka Aro. New York: Ig Publishing, 2022. $18.95. 375 pp.
《俄罗斯的故事》奥兰多·菲格斯。伦敦:布鲁姆斯伯里出版社,2022。£25.00。《暗影:哈萨克斯坦的秘密世界》,共348页。伦敦:布卢姆斯伯里学术出版社,2022。£12.00。352页,《我们的生命之战:我与泽伦斯基的时光》,《乌克兰的民主之战及其对世界的意义》。纽约:One Signal Publishers, 2022。27.99美元。《俄罗斯难题:西方如何落入普京的权力策略——以及如何解决它》,作者:米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基,作者:马丁·西斯史密斯。纽约:圣马丁出版社,2022。29.99美元。《普京的喷子:俄罗斯对世界信息战的前线》,共352页。纽约:Ig Publishing, 2022。18.95美元。375页。
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引用次数: 0
The Crowded Red Sea 拥挤的红海
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172851
Camille Lons, Benjamin Petrini
Abstract It is unsurprising that the Red Sea region has come into sharper strategic focus for great powers as well as regional powers, given that 12% of global seaborne trade, 40% of Europe’s trade with Asia and the Middle East, and 8% of seaborne hydrocarbons pass through the Red Sea. Yet the region is chronically underdeveloped and conflict-ridden. Overlapping rivalries involving Iran, Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries pose risks of intensifying regional discord. The United States has prioritised empowering its regional partners and strengthening emerging Israel–Gulf security synergies to counteract Iran’s activities and check China, which has become a key economic actor in the region and opened its first overseas military base, in Djibouti, in 2017. Given the potential divergence between American and regional concerns, however, neither US nor regional involvement appears likely to stabilise the region.
考虑到全球12%的海运贸易、40%的欧洲与亚洲和中东的贸易以及8%的海上碳氢化合物运输都要经过红海,红海地区成为大国和地区大国更加明确的战略重点并不奇怪。然而,该地区长期不发达且冲突不断。伊朗、以色列和海湾合作委员会(Gulf Cooperation Council)成员国之间的竞争重叠,有加剧地区不和的风险。美国已经优先考虑增强其地区伙伴的权力,加强新兴的以色列-海湾安全协同效应,以对抗伊朗的活动,并遏制中国,中国已成为该地区的关键经济参与者,并于2017年在吉布提开设了第一个海外军事基地。然而,鉴于美国和地区关切之间的潜在分歧,美国和地区的参与似乎都不太可能稳定该地区。
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引用次数: 0
The Weakness of Indispensable Leaders 不可或缺的领导者的弱点
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172868
Erik Jones
Abstract The weakness of indispensable leaders is on full display in countries led by strongmen sitting atop authoritarian regimes, many of whom now appear embattled. The strength of democracy is that political leaders are systematically replaceable, particularly when they make mistakes. Neither US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy nor Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is indispensable. What matters for the United States and Italy is how good existing US and Italian constitutional arrangements are at self-correcting if they turn out to be poor leaders. Even in democracies, however, those who have power can be reluctant to surrender it. Leaders who presume themselves to be indispensable and seek to restructure political institutions to ensure they stay in power constitute a grave threat. What McCarthy and Meloni have done to gain power is less worrisome than what they might do to keep it.
不可或缺的领导人的弱点在那些由独裁政权的强人领导的国家得到了充分的体现,其中许多人现在似乎陷入了困境。民主的力量在于,政治领导人在系统上是可以替代的,尤其是在他们犯错的时候。美国众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼都不是不可或缺的。对美国和意大利来说,重要的是,如果美国和意大利现有的宪法安排被证明是糟糕的领导人,它们在自我纠正方面的能力有多好。然而,即使在民主国家,那些拥有权力的人也可能不愿意交出权力。那些认为自己不可或缺、并寻求重组政治机构以确保自己继续掌权的领导人构成了严重威胁。比起麦卡锡和梅洛尼为获得权力所做的事情,他们可能会为保持权力所做的事情更令人担忧。
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引用次数: 0
Can the New Left Deliver Change in Latin America? 新左派能给拉美带来变革吗?
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172849
Irene Mia
Abstract The intense Latin American electoral cycle of 2020–22 coincided with deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing frustration with the status quo. Anti-incumbent sentiment coupled with demands for more inclusive and fair economic models prompted a pronounced shift to the left in the region, although with many different shades of ‘pink’. But an increasingly polarised and fragmented political and social environment is testing the ability of new governments to deliver change, as shown by the popular rejection of a new constitution in Chile. A more limited fiscal space is also constraining these governments’ effectiveness. Nevertheless, political alignment among countries with important stakes in global climate-change mitigation and thwarting drug trafficking could produce more cohesive foreign-policy stances and increased regional leverage.
拉丁美洲2020 - 2022年紧张的选举周期恰逢2019冠状病毒病大流行后社会经济状况恶化,对现状的不满情绪日益加剧。反对现任政府的情绪,加上对更包容、更公平的经济模式的要求,促使该地区出现了明显的左倾,尽管有许多不同程度的“粉红色”。但是,日益分化和分裂的政治和社会环境正在考验新政府带来变革的能力,正如智利民众对新宪法的普遍反对所表明的那样。更为有限的财政空间也限制了这些政府的效率。然而,在减缓全球气候变化和打击毒品贩运方面具有重要利害关系的国家之间的政治结盟可能会产生更有凝聚力的外交政策立场,并增加区域影响力。
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引用次数: 1
Europe’s Fragile Unity 欧洲脆弱的团结
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172854
Arlo Poletti
Abstract The EU is unlikely to develop the kinds of efficient collective responses to the Russia–Ukraine war that it produced in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. The conditions of strategic interdependence generated by the Ukraine crisis are more demanding than those triggered by the pandemic because its consequences are asymmetrically distributed across member states. Germany will find it difficult to play the role of regional stabiliser, anti-Europe parties could become stronger, new intra-European cleavages may arise over collective goals, and the expansion of the crisis’s time horizon could weaken prospects for effective collective action.
欧盟不太可能像应对COVID-19大流行时那样,对俄乌战争采取有效的集体应对措施。乌克兰危机所产生的战略相互依存的条件比大流行病所引发的条件更为苛刻,因为其后果在各成员国之间的分布不对称。德国将发现很难扮演地区稳定者的角色,反欧洲政党可能会变得更强大,欧洲内部可能会在集体目标上出现新的分歧,危机时间范围的扩大可能会削弱有效集体行动的前景。
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引用次数: 1
Asia-Pacific 亚太地区
3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172866
Lanxin Xiang
Subimperial Power: Australia in the International ArenaClinton Fernandes. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 2022. A$24.99. 176 pp.Winning by Process: The State and Neutralization of Ethnic Minorities in MyanmarJacques Bertrand, Alexandre Pelletier and Ardeth Maung Thawnghmung. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2022. $29.95. 270 pp.The Making of the Modern Philippines: Pieces of a Jigsaw StatePhilip Bowring. London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2022. £20.00. 272 pp.Taiwan, the United States, and the Hidden History of the Cold War in Asia: Divided AlliesHsiao-Ting Lin. Abingdon: Routledge, 2022. £120.00. 260 pp.
次皇权:国际舞台上的澳大利亚。墨尔本:墨尔本大学出版社,2022。一个24.99美元。176页:《过程中的胜利:缅甸少数民族的状态与中立》,雅克·贝特朗、亚历山大·佩尔蒂埃、阿德斯·芒通蒙著。伊萨卡,纽约州:康奈尔大学出版社,2022。29.95美元。《现代菲律宾的形成:拼图国家的碎片》philip Bowring。伦敦:布卢姆斯伯里学术出版社,2022。£20.00。272页:《台湾、美国和亚洲冷战的隐藏历史:分裂的盟友》,林晓婷。阿宾登:劳特利奇出版社,2022年。£120.00。260页。
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引用次数: 0
Gambling the World: The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited 赌世界:古巴导弹危机重访
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172863
R. Crandall
Abstract From North Korea to Ukraine to Iran, the spectre of nuclear war continues to loom over global affairs. In his timely history Nuclear Folly, Harvard historian Serhii Plokhy takes a fresh and intentionally international look at one of the most fraught moments of the Cold War: the Cuban Missile Crisis. Contrary to the conventional view that US president John F. Kennedy brilliantly out-foxed his inept Soviet counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev, Plokhy posits that both sides repeatedly erred and misread each other – greatly increasing the likelihood of mutual annihilation. Plokhy draws lessons from the crisis for contemporary decision-makers, noting that the power to wield nuclear weapons still resides in a small number of hands.
从朝鲜到乌克兰再到伊朗,核战争的幽灵继续笼罩着全球事务。哈佛大学历史学家Serhii Plokhy在他的《核愚蠢》一书中适时地对冷战中最令人担忧的时刻之一——古巴导弹危机——进行了全新的、有意国际化的审视。传统观点认为,美国总统约翰•f•肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)聪明地战胜了无能的苏联总统尼基塔•赫鲁晓夫(Nikita Khrushchev)。与这种观点相反,普罗基认为,双方都在不断地犯错和误读对方——这大大增加了相互毁灭的可能性。Plokhy从危机中为当代决策者吸取了教训,指出使用核武器的权力仍然掌握在少数人手中。
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引用次数: 0
Towards Nuclear Stewardship with China 与中国进行核管理
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172846
H. Binnendijk, D. Gompert
Abstract With the rising risk of complex crises and military escalation in the Pacific region, the United States should invite China into a process of nuclear restraint and confidence-building, which we call ‘nuclear stewardship’. This process could start with a joint bilateral declaration that neither superpower would use nuclear weapons first against the other or its formal allies. This would acknowledge that neither side could gain by striking first with a nuclear device. This declaration could be the leading edge of a broader set of discussions on strategic stability and eventual implementation of confidence-building measures designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust in the US–Chinese nuclear relationship.
随着太平洋地区复杂危机和军事升级的风险不断上升,美国应该邀请中国参与核约束和建立信任的进程,我们称之为“核管理”。这一进程可以从一项双边联合声明开始,即任何一个超级大国都不会首先对另一方或其正式盟友使用核武器。这将承认,任何一方都无法通过首先使用核装置进行打击而获益。这一声明可能成为一系列更广泛的讨论的前沿,这些讨论涉及战略稳定和最终实施建立信任措施,旨在增进中美核关系中的相互理解和信任。
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引用次数: 0
Kindred Crises? Cuba 1962, Ukraine 2022 家族危机?古巴1962年,乌克兰2022年
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172856
Jean-Yves Haine
Abstract There are numerous material differences between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Ukraine conflict, and any comparison must be cautious. The international system is now multipolar, which makes the current conflict more complex and more global, but also potentially more tractable. The theory of nuclear deterrence has also become far more refined, and deterrence itself presumptively more stable. The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred in a very short time span, while the current conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing for one year and counting. One prominent similarity between the two crises is mutual miscalculation. In addition, both crises involve a risk-courting personalist dictator. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to flirt with nuclear brinkmanship, much like Nikita Khrushchev’s in 1962, raises the question of his rationality. The paramount lesson for the Ukraine crisis from the Cuban one may be the necessity of dialogue.
古巴导弹危机与乌克兰冲突有许多实质性的不同,任何比较都必须谨慎。现在的国际体系是多极的,这使得当前的冲突更加复杂和全球化,但也可能更容易处理。核威慑理论也变得更加完善,威慑本身也被认为更加稳定。古巴导弹危机是在很短的时间内发生的,而乌克兰目前的冲突已经持续了一年多。这两次危机的一个显著相似之处是相互的误判。此外,这两场危机都涉及一个喜欢冒险的个人主义独裁者。此外,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)愿意玩弄核边缘政策,就像1962年尼基塔•赫鲁晓夫(Nikita Khrushchev)的做法一样,这让人质疑他的理性。乌克兰危机从古巴危机中得到的最重要的教训可能是对话的必要性。
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引用次数: 1
Kissinger and Monnet: Realpolitik and Interdependence in World Affairs 基辛格与莫内:世界事务中的现实政治与相互依存
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172860
C. Merlini
Abstract The juxtaposition of the political and cultural legacies of Henry Kissinger and Jean Monnet may help in interpreting the current phase of history. The evolution of the European Union has been consistent with Monnet’s vision of interdependence. The ‘return of the states’ connotes a new prominence for geopolitics and realpolitik in an increasingly multipolar world, squaring with the world order contemplated by Kissinger. This development has not yet obliterated global trade and value chains, but economic measures dictated by perceived national interests and geopolitical imperatives – including protectionism and sanctions – have impaired them. Such trends suggest a potential reprise of the situation preceding what Kissinger has called the ‘Second Thirty Years’ War’ – that is, the series of destructive conflicts between August 1914 and September 1945. Avoiding it calls for new statesmen of interdependence like Monnet.
亨利·基辛格和让·莫内的政治和文化遗产的并列可能有助于解释当前的历史阶段。欧盟的演变与莫内对相互依存的看法是一致的。“国家回归”意味着地缘政治和现实政治在日益多极化的世界中获得新的突出地位,与基辛格所设想的世界秩序相符。这一发展尚未彻底摧毁全球贸易和价值链,但由国家利益和地缘政治需要决定的经济措施——包括保护主义和制裁——已经损害了它们。这种趋势表明,基辛格所说的“第二个三十年战争”——即1914年8月至1945年9月之间的一系列破坏性冲突——之前的局势可能会重演。要避免这种情况,就需要像莫奈这样的相互依赖的新政治家。
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引用次数: 0
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Survival
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