Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074
J. Dobbins
Abstract James Dobbins, who died on 3 July 2023 at the age of 81, was one of his generation’s pre-eminent diplomats and foreign-policy scholars. He contributed more than a dozen articles to Survival, including this article, among the most-read articles in the journal’s history, first published in 2012. We are republishing it here in full.
{"title":"War with China","authors":"J. Dobbins","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239074","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract James Dobbins, who died on 3 July 2023 at the age of 81, was one of his generation’s pre-eminent diplomats and foreign-policy scholars. He contributed more than a dozen articles to Survival, including this article, among the most-read articles in the journal’s history, first published in 2012. We are republishing it here in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85603209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract David P. Calleo, who died on 15 June 2023 at the age of 88, was one of the most original scholars of his generation on subjects ranging from the international economy to US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, European politics and the history of ideas. Dean Acheson Professor of European Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Calleo was also, from 2008 until just before his death, a Contributing Editor to Survival, which published some two dozen of his essays and reviews. This essay, one of his earliest contributions, first appeared in these pages in 1999. We are republishing it here in full.
大卫·p·卡里奥(David P. Calleo)于2023年6月15日逝世，享年88岁。他是同代人中最具独创性的学者之一，研究领域从国际经济到美国外交政策、跨大西洋关系、欧洲政治和思想史。约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院(SAIS)欧洲研究学院院长艾奇逊教授，从2008年到去世前，他还担任《生存》杂志的特约编辑，发表了二十多篇文章和评论。这篇文章是他最早的贡献之一，于1999年首次出现在本刊。我们在这里全文转载。
{"title":"The Strategic Implications of the Euro","authors":"D. Calleo","doi":"10.1080/713660049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713660049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract David P. Calleo, who died on 15 June 2023 at the age of 88, was one of the most original scholars of his generation on subjects ranging from the international economy to US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, European politics and the history of ideas. Dean Acheson Professor of European Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Calleo was also, from 2008 until just before his death, a Contributing Editor to Survival, which published some two dozen of his essays and reviews. This essay, one of his earliest contributions, first appeared in these pages in 1999. We are republishing it here in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86520188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059
Mathieu Duchâtel
Abstract This essay explores the question of restricting China’s access to European dual-use technology. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party is transforming China into a techno-security state. The country’s innovation-driven development strategy and strengthened push for military–civil fusion, fuelled by powerful industrial policies, have made technology exchanges with China a challenging policy issue in Europe. The issue is not only a bilateral one with China – it constitutes a challenge for the management of the transatlantic alliance as well, given that US intervention has at times been a decisive factor shaping European policies vis-à-vis China, mostly through targeted action regarding specific issues of technology transfers. The European Union has developed a toolbox of defensive instruments in the past five years to address asymmetries and imbalances in EU–China trade and investment relations, providing European decision-makers with the instruments to manage technology transfers to China. This toolbox still needs to be perfected, however. The EU is only now starting to develop a political narrative linking China’s military build-up, its powerful industrial and innovation policies, and Xi’s vision for Chinese leadership in world affairs. In the absence of a shared European vision, technology transfers will remain a sporadic irritant in transatlantic relations.
{"title":"Europe’s China Problem: How Not to Feed Beijing’s Military–Civil Fusion","authors":"Mathieu Duchâtel","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239059","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This essay explores the question of restricting China’s access to European dual-use technology. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party is transforming China into a techno-security state. The country’s innovation-driven development strategy and strengthened push for military–civil fusion, fuelled by powerful industrial policies, have made technology exchanges with China a challenging policy issue in Europe. The issue is not only a bilateral one with China – it constitutes a challenge for the management of the transatlantic alliance as well, given that US intervention has at times been a decisive factor shaping European policies vis-à-vis China, mostly through targeted action regarding specific issues of technology transfers. The European Union has developed a toolbox of defensive instruments in the past five years to address asymmetries and imbalances in EU–China trade and investment relations, providing European decision-makers with the instruments to manage technology transfers to China. This toolbox still needs to be perfected, however. The EU is only now starting to develop a political narrative linking China’s military build-up, its powerful industrial and innovation policies, and Xi’s vision for Chinese leadership in world affairs. In the absence of a shared European vision, technology transfers will remain a sporadic irritant in transatlantic relations.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87297704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694
N. Childs
Abstract As it has unfolded, the Russia–Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.
{"title":"The Black Sea in the Shadow of War","authors":"N. Childs","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As it has unfolded, the Russia–Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78687754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709
R. Crandall, Britta H. Crandall
Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico: How Politics Destroyed an Economic Miracle A.W. Maldonado. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2021. $35.00. 266 pp. The Left Hand of Capital: Neoliberalism and the Left in Chile Fernando Ignacio Leiva. Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2021. $33.95. 408 pp. The Southern Cone and the Origins of Pan America, 1888–1933 Mark J. Petersen. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2022. $65.00. 344 pp. The Dope: The Real History of the Mexican Drug Trade Benjamin T. Smith. London: Ebury Press, 2021. £20.00. 448 pp. Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela William Neuman. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2022. $29.99. 352 pp.
{"title":"Latin America","authors":"R. Crandall, Britta H. Crandall","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218709","url":null,"abstract":"Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico: How Politics Destroyed an Economic Miracle A.W. Maldonado. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2021. $35.00. 266 pp. The Left Hand of Capital: Neoliberalism and the Left in Chile Fernando Ignacio Leiva. Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2021. $33.95. 408 pp. The Southern Cone and the Origins of Pan America, 1888–1933 Mark J. Petersen. Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame Press, 2022. $65.00. 344 pp. The Dope: The Real History of the Mexican Drug Trade Benjamin T. Smith. London: Ebury Press, 2021. £20.00. 448 pp. Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela William Neuman. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2022. $29.99. 352 pp.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82145406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218698
K. Kamp
Abstract In spring 2023, Germany presented its first National Security Strategy. A remarkably clear document by German standards, it reflects the fact that the Zeitenwende (turning point) precipitated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has already taken place in the minds of German policymakers and the German people, and signals a militarily stronger and politically more realistic Germany in the future. The protection of Germany and its allies tops the list of security-policy interests. Next comes strengthening European Union and NATO partnerships, as well as bilateral ones with France and the United States. Russia is seen as an imminent threat, and the West’s rivalry with China is considered a major challenge. The Bundeswehr is framed as the core security-policy instrument for countering threats and as the guarantor of Germany’s deterrence and defence capabilities. The document also explicitly enshrines the 2%-of-GDP target for defence spending.
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695
Barak Mendelsohn, Dominic Tierney
Abstract For almost a century, enemies have tended to see the United States as a ‘paper tiger’ that is materially strong but also beatable in war because Americans have no stomach for the fight. Adversaries recognise US industrial and technological might but conclude that because the American public is casualty averse and US soldiers have weak morale, they can overcome the Americans with a long-war strategy. Four factors are likely to play a role in encouraging states to view the US in this way: rhetoric, rationalism, psychology and ideology. The paper-tiger image is significant because it can influence both the enemy’s decision to fight and its strategy, and offers insights into emerging threats, including that from China.
{"title":"Paper Tiger: The Enemy Image of America","authors":"Barak Mendelsohn, Dominic Tierney","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218695","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For almost a century, enemies have tended to see the United States as a ‘paper tiger’ that is materially strong but also beatable in war because Americans have no stomach for the fight. Adversaries recognise US industrial and technological might but conclude that because the American public is casualty averse and US soldiers have weak morale, they can overcome the Americans with a long-war strategy. Four factors are likely to play a role in encouraging states to view the US in this way: rhetoric, rationalism, psychology and ideology. The paper-tiger image is significant because it can influence both the enemy’s decision to fight and its strategy, and offers insights into emerging threats, including that from China.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88551366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716
Hannah Aries, Bastian. Giegerich, Tim Lawrenson
Abstract Significant increases in defence spending in European NATO and European Union member states are intended to address long-standing capability shortfalls, support the modernisation and growth of armed forces, replenish stocks, and fill gaps created by the transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine. Yet Europe’s defence-industrial base will struggle to meet this increased demand in the short term. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has revealed Russia’s broader threat to Europe, while the United States’ ‘pivot to Asia’ is likely to accelerate and reduce the American role in Europe’s defence. Accordingly, Europe needs an epochal shift in political thinking, coupled with significantly higher defence spending and a determined effort to reset public perceptions of the need for strong defence. None of these requirements currently looks assured.
{"title":"The Guns of Europe: Defence-industrial Challenges in a Time of War","authors":"Hannah Aries, Bastian. Giegerich, Tim Lawrenson","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Significant increases in defence spending in European NATO and European Union member states are intended to address long-standing capability shortfalls, support the modernisation and growth of armed forces, replenish stocks, and fill gaps created by the transfer of equipment and munitions to Ukraine. Yet Europe’s defence-industrial base will struggle to meet this increased demand in the short term. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has revealed Russia’s broader threat to Europe, while the United States’ ‘pivot to Asia’ is likely to accelerate and reduce the American role in Europe’s defence. Accordingly, Europe needs an epochal shift in political thinking, coupled with significantly higher defence spending and a determined effort to reset public perceptions of the need for strong defence. None of these requirements currently looks assured.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80924392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218706
C. Crocker
Wars of Revelation: The Transformative Effects of Military Intervention on Grand Strategy Rebecca Lissner. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021. £80.00/$99.00. 225 pp. Looking for the Good War: American Amnesia and the Violent Pursuit of Happiness Elizabeth D. Samet. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021. $28.00. 368 pp. The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century Moisés Naím. New York: St. Martin's Press, 2022. $29.99. 294 pp. The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats – and Our Response – Will Change the World Ian Bremmer. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2022. $17.99. 272 pp. The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War Mark Galeotti. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2022. £20.00/$26.00. 235 pp.
《启示战争:军事干预对大战略的变革性影响》丽贝卡·利斯纳著。牛津:牛津大学出版社，2021。£80.00 / 99.00美元。《寻找美好的战争:美国人的失忆和对幸福的暴力追求》，伊丽莎白·d·萨梅特著。纽约:Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021。28.00美元。368页，《权力的报复:独裁者如何为21世纪重塑政治》mois Naím。纽约:圣马丁出版社，2022。29.99美元。《危机的力量:三种威胁和我们的应对将如何改变世界》，共294页，伊恩·布雷默著。纽约:西蒙与舒斯特，2022。17.99美元。272页，《一切的武器化:战争新方式的实地指南》，马克·加莱奥蒂。康涅狄格州纽黑文:耶鲁大学出版社，2022年。£20.00 / 26.00美元。235页。
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Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712
R. Steel
Abstract Ronald Steel, who died on 7 May 2023 in Washington DC, was an eminent writer and historian perhaps best known for his biography of Walter Lippmann. In 2006 he participated in an IISS/Council on Foreign Relations symposium in New York on the impact of the Iraq War on the future of United States foreign and defence policy, for which he wrote this essay, published in the Spring 2007 issue of Survival. We are republishing the article in full.
{"title":"An Iraq Syndrome?","authors":"R. Steel","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218712","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Ronald Steel, who died on 7 May 2023 in Washington DC, was an eminent writer and historian perhaps best known for his biography of Walter Lippmann. In 2006 he participated in an IISS/Council on Foreign Relations symposium in New York on the impact of the Iraq War on the future of United States foreign and defence policy, for which he wrote this essay, published in the Spring 2007 issue of Survival. We are republishing the article in full.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74723374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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