Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193106
J. S. Powell
Abstract Carl von Clausewitz’s classic work On War illuminates the practical value of approaching war on a theoretical basis, the relationship between war and policy, and the demands that war’s nature imposes on both civilian and military leaders. This essay places familiar passages of the treatise in context and sheds light on how On War still informs matters of utmost importance to today’s policymakers and their civilian and military advisers. By approaching On War as an inquiry into war and its inherent tensions, twenty-first-century national-security practitioners can cultivate an awareness and sensitivity essential to the military planning and advising that they undertake.
{"title":"Reading Clausewitz: On War for 21st-century Practitioners","authors":"J. S. Powell","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193106","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Carl von Clausewitz’s classic work On War illuminates the practical value of approaching war on a theoretical basis, the relationship between war and policy, and the demands that war’s nature imposes on both civilian and military leaders. This essay places familiar passages of the treatise in context and sheds light on how On War still informs matters of utmost importance to today’s policymakers and their civilian and military advisers. By approaching On War as an inquiry into war and its inherent tensions, twenty-first-century national-security practitioners can cultivate an awareness and sensitivity essential to the military planning and advising that they undertake.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"25 1","pages":"165 - 190"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82303754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193104
A. Mount
Abstract As US officials have grown more anxious about the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence, they have placed renewed emphasis on nuclear-assurance measures. The hope is that closer exercises and consultations can reassure allies, strengthen deterrence postures and reduce the risk that an ally could pursue their own nuclear weapons. However, recent developments in the US–South Korea alliance suggest that nuclear assurance is not only ineffective at reassuring Seoul but may also be fuelling proliferation risks. By raising the salience of nuclear weapons within the alliance, nuclear assurance reinforces the fiction that South Korea’s defence depends on nuclear use. Misunderstanding the risks and potential of nuclear assurance has fuelled calls for a South Korean nuclear-weapons programme and obstructed the alliance’s ability to adapt and improve its deterrence posture.
{"title":"The US and South Korea: The Trouble with Nuclear Assurance","authors":"A. Mount","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193104","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As US officials have grown more anxious about the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence, they have placed renewed emphasis on nuclear-assurance measures. The hope is that closer exercises and consultations can reassure allies, strengthen deterrence postures and reduce the risk that an ally could pursue their own nuclear weapons. However, recent developments in the US–South Korea alliance suggest that nuclear assurance is not only ineffective at reassuring Seoul but may also be fuelling proliferation risks. By raising the salience of nuclear weapons within the alliance, nuclear assurance reinforces the fiction that South Korea’s defence depends on nuclear use. Misunderstanding the risks and potential of nuclear assurance has fuelled calls for a South Korean nuclear-weapons programme and obstructed the alliance’s ability to adapt and improve its deterrence posture.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"10 1","pages":"123 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84162542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193094
Maria Shagina
Abstract As Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine, Western calls to confiscate Russian frozen assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction have become more urgent. Whether justice on this score will be ultimately delivered remains unclear. Despite many international initiatives to seize Russian assets, legal conservatism and concerns over the disruption of international rules are strong constraints. Finding a legal way to confiscate Russian sovereign assets will require political determination, international coordination and legal creativity.
{"title":"Enforcing Russia’s Debt to Ukraine: Constraints and Creativity","authors":"Maria Shagina","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193094","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine, Western calls to confiscate Russian frozen assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction have become more urgent. Whether justice on this score will be ultimately delivered remains unclear. Despite many international initiatives to seize Russian assets, legal conservatism and concerns over the disruption of international rules are strong constraints. Finding a legal way to confiscate Russian sovereign assets will require political determination, international coordination and legal creativity.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"17 1","pages":"27 - 36"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75012590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193105
Aya Kamil, Zuha Noor, D. Serwer
Abstract Whether the Iran nuclear deal rises from the ashes or not, the United States and Europe now need to focus on preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are the most likely to respond to Iran’s becoming a nuclear-threshold state. Both have good reasons to think twice before proceeding, but their current leaders have made statements that arouse concern. Egypt might find it hard not to follow in their wake. With Israel and Iran, there would then be a prospect of five rivalrous nuclear powers in close proximity in a volatile region. Avoiding this scenario will require careful analysis of nuclear capabilities in the potential proliferating states; intense diplomacy among the US, Europe and the potential proliferators; and a broader regional-security framework for threat assessment that does not exist today.
{"title":"Assessing Proliferation Risks in the Middle East","authors":"Aya Kamil, Zuha Noor, D. Serwer","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193105","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Whether the Iran nuclear deal rises from the ashes or not, the United States and Europe now need to focus on preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are the most likely to respond to Iran’s becoming a nuclear-threshold state. Both have good reasons to think twice before proceeding, but their current leaders have made statements that arouse concern. Egypt might find it hard not to follow in their wake. With Israel and Iran, there would then be a prospect of five rivalrous nuclear powers in close proximity in a volatile region. Avoiding this scenario will require careful analysis of nuclear capabilities in the potential proliferating states; intense diplomacy among the US, Europe and the potential proliferators; and a broader regional-security framework for threat assessment that does not exist today.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"54 1","pages":"141 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84884912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193097
Lynn Kuok
Abstract Many Asian governments regard Russia’s war with Ukraine as a distant event with limited impact on the region, beyond rising food and energy prices and possibly increasing the risk of China attacking Taiwan. But the war has strained the rule of law and is entrenching ideological divisions, introducing unnecessary complexity into alliances and partnerships. Asian governments should be alert to the negative implications of these developments for regional peace and security. For them to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and defend the rule of law would not be to blindly support the West, and would be entirely consistent with their national interests. The West, for its part, should avoid worsening geopolitical fault lines. To this end, the United States might refrain from characterising great-power competition as a battle between autocracies and democracies, and from painting China and Russia with the same broad ideological brush.
{"title":"Asia’s Ukraine Problem","authors":"Lynn Kuok","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193097","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many Asian governments regard Russia’s war with Ukraine as a distant event with limited impact on the region, beyond rising food and energy prices and possibly increasing the risk of China attacking Taiwan. But the war has strained the rule of law and is entrenching ideological divisions, introducing unnecessary complexity into alliances and partnerships. Asian governments should be alert to the negative implications of these developments for regional peace and security. For them to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and defend the rule of law would not be to blindly support the West, and would be entirely consistent with their national interests. The West, for its part, should avoid worsening geopolitical fault lines. To this end, the United States might refrain from characterising great-power competition as a battle between autocracies and democracies, and from painting China and Russia with the same broad ideological brush.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"30 1","pages":"43 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82708420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193103
Aaron Ettinger
Abstract US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, as expressed in the 2022 National Security Strategy, represents a contemporary variation of the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan and the post-Second World War programme of US global leadership. It frames great-power politics in the international arena and democratic revitalisation at home as part of a broad ideological confrontation between liberal-democratic capitalism and illiberal, authoritarian nationalism. It directs an economic-recovery plan inward to rebuild the US economy after the distortions it has been experiencing since 2008. And it promotes US leadership of the liberal-international order, albeit in a different geopolitical environment than prevailed in the post-war years. This strategy has been refined in the face of near disaster and revived by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
{"title":"Truman Redux? Biden’s National Security Strategy","authors":"Aaron Ettinger","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193103","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, as expressed in the 2022 National Security Strategy, represents a contemporary variation of the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan and the post-Second World War programme of US global leadership. It frames great-power politics in the international arena and democratic revitalisation at home as part of a broad ideological confrontation between liberal-democratic capitalism and illiberal, authoritarian nationalism. It directs an economic-recovery plan inward to rebuild the US economy after the distortions it has been experiencing since 2008. And it promotes US leadership of the liberal-international order, albeit in a different geopolitical environment than prevailed in the post-war years. This strategy has been refined in the face of near disaster and revived by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"4 1","pages":"103 - 122"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88096898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172858
Andrew B. Kennedy
Abstract The United States and its partners have arrived at a critical crossroads in their relations with China – and with one another – in the realm of high technology. Some degree of high-tech decoupling between the two sides is already under way, and recent events suggest this trend is accelerating. Combined efforts to bolster their collective resilience in the face of China’s rise remain inadequate. Going forward, much greater investment in resilience is required, including measures to absorb threatening Chinese actions and to adapt and transform in response to China’s growing technological prowess. While this will call for considerable acumen and effort on the part of like-minded governments, greater resilience would afford them renewed solidarity and enriched opportunities to sustain technological leadership in the future.
{"title":"The Resilience Requirement: Responding to China’s Rise as a Technology Power","authors":"Andrew B. Kennedy","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2172858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2172858","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The United States and its partners have arrived at a critical crossroads in their relations with China – and with one another – in the realm of high technology. Some degree of high-tech decoupling between the two sides is already under way, and recent events suggest this trend is accelerating. Combined efforts to bolster their collective resilience in the face of China’s rise remain inadequate. Going forward, much greater investment in resilience is required, including measures to absorb threatening Chinese actions and to adapt and transform in response to China’s growing technological prowess. While this will call for considerable acumen and effort on the part of like-minded governments, greater resilience would afford them renewed solidarity and enriched opportunities to sustain technological leadership in the future.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"40 24 1","pages":"115 - 128"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88736623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2172847
T. Dalton, Jin-a Kim
Abstract Three decades of efforts to secure North Korea’s denuclearisation failed to arrest Pyongyang’s development of a nuclear arsenal. With growing dangers of conflict escalation and nuclear use, it is time to consider alternative policies that address the reality of North Korea as a nuclear possessor state. Comprehensive arms control is worth exploring as one potential approach to managing nuclear dangers on the Korean Peninsula. Previously, conventional arms-control and denuclearisation negotiations with North Korea proceeded in parallel. However, the increasing complexity of deterrence resulting from changes in military capabilities, especially in South Korea, now necessitates a comprehensive process that creates linkages across conventional and strategic domains to address not just North Korean and South Korean, but also US, capabilities. Though comprehensive arms control promises to be politically fraught and technically complex, policymakers and experts should debate whether it could yield a more secure Korean Peninsula than existing policies that have long since failed.
{"title":"Rethinking Arms Control with a Nuclear North Korea","authors":"T. Dalton, Jin-a Kim","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2172847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2172847","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Three decades of efforts to secure North Korea’s denuclearisation failed to arrest Pyongyang’s development of a nuclear arsenal. With growing dangers of conflict escalation and nuclear use, it is time to consider alternative policies that address the reality of North Korea as a nuclear possessor state. Comprehensive arms control is worth exploring as one potential approach to managing nuclear dangers on the Korean Peninsula. Previously, conventional arms-control and denuclearisation negotiations with North Korea proceeded in parallel. However, the increasing complexity of deterrence resulting from changes in military capabilities, especially in South Korea, now necessitates a comprehensive process that creates linkages across conventional and strategic domains to address not just North Korean and South Korean, but also US, capabilities. Though comprehensive arms control promises to be politically fraught and technically complex, policymakers and experts should debate whether it could yield a more secure Korean Peninsula than existing policies that have long since failed.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"29 1","pages":"21 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84902163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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