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Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Military Scenarios and Outcomes 俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争:军事情景和结果
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150429
Michael Jonsson, Johan R. Norberg
Abstract After Vladimir Putin declared a partial Russian mobilisation in late September 2022 and annexed four additional Ukrainian regions, there was little to suggest that a negotiated settlement would be possible while he remained in power. This article instead explores three possible military outcomes of the war – an outright Ukrainian or Russian military victory, and a war of attrition. As of November 2022, a Ukrainian victory, so unlikely at the outset of Russia’s invasion, is a distinct possibility, provided the West offers sufficient military materiel and training swiftly enough. Russian forces have suffered heavy casualties and are low on precision-guided munitions, with their logistics under fire and having lost much of what air dominance they had. Hence, Moscow’s battlefield fortunes hinge on whether mobilised, poorly trained and equipped forces will be able to hold defensive lines over the winter to buy time to build new, more capable units, with troop morale ever more crucial, but also brittle. A key unknown, however, is the state of Ukrainian forces. Importantly, the scale and intensity of the war, the vital interests at stake and international involvement on both sides all gravitate towards a more drawn-out war over the winter and beyond.
弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在2022年9月下旬宣布俄罗斯部分动员,并吞并了另外四个乌克兰地区后,几乎没有迹象表明,在他掌权期间,谈判解决乌克兰问题是可能的。本文探讨了这场战争的三种可能的军事结果——乌克兰或俄罗斯的彻底军事胜利,以及一场消耗战。到2022年11月,只要西方能足够迅速地提供足够的军事物资和训练,乌克兰取得胜利的可能性就很大了。在俄罗斯入侵之初,乌克兰取得胜利是不太可能的。俄罗斯军队伤亡惨重,而且精确制导弹药不足,他们的后勤遭到炮火袭击,失去了大部分原有的制空权。因此,莫斯科在战场上的命运取决于那些缺乏训练和装备的动员部队能否在冬季守住防线,争取时间组建新的、更有能力的部队。军队士气变得越来越重要,但也越来越脆弱。然而,一个关键的未知因素是乌克兰军队的状况。重要的是,这场战争的规模和强度、利害攸关的重大利益以及双方的国际参与,都使这场战争在冬季乃至更长时间内更加旷日持久。
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引用次数: 7
Castroism in Crisis 危机中的卡斯特罗主义
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150433
R. Crandall
Abstract Since the middle of the twentieth century, Fidel Castro has cast an outsized shadow over all things Cuba, as if the Cuban leader and the communist Caribbean nation were one and the same. Yet, as veteran New York Times correspondent Anthony DePalma contends in his book The Cubans: Ordinary Lives in Extraordinary Times, this reflex obfuscates the complex society that is increasingly at cross purposes with all things Fidel. The author’s keen profiles of ‘ordinary’ citizens give readers an unvarnished entry into the so often unimaginable, surreal or heart-breaking realities at the core of contemporary Cuban life.
自20世纪中叶以来,菲德尔·卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)在古巴的所有事情上都投下了巨大的阴影,仿佛这位古巴领导人和这个加勒比共产主义国家是一体的。然而,正如《纽约时报》资深记者安东尼·德帕尔马(Anthony DePalma)在他的著作《古巴人:非凡时代的平凡生活》(The cuban: Ordinary Lives in Extraordinary Times)中所指出的那样,这种反射混淆了这个复杂的社会,这个社会与菲德尔的一切越来越格格不入。作者对“普通”公民的敏锐描写,让读者得以不加粉饰地进入当代古巴生活核心中常常难以想象、超现实或令人心碎的现实。
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引用次数: 0
The Maritime Logic of the Melian Dialogue: Deterrence in the Western Pacific 米利亚对话的海洋逻辑:西太平洋的威慑
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2143083
J. Wirtz
Abstract There is a maritime logic embedded in Thucydides’ ‘Melian Dialogue’ that until now has attracted little notice; observers have instead concentrated on the deeper philosophical and moral issues highlighted by Thucydides in his tale drawn from the Peloponnesian War. Nevertheless, the maritime logic that propelled a confrontation on the island nation of Melos nearly 2,500 years ago could re-emerge in the run-up to a conflict in the Western Pacific. Allies are the strategic enabler of the US naval presence in the region, and US forces are taking steps to develop concepts and doctrine to enable operations in and along the First Island Chain. Denying access to these logistical facilities might be a political priority for China in the run-up to potential military action, and it would not be surprising if Beijing delivered a simple message to the inhabitants of the First Island Chain: stay out of it, and we will leave you out of it. All of this suggests that the idea of ‘neutrality’, as encountered in the Melian Dialogue, might again emerge during a crisis. Because the incentives to restrict US access to forward-operating bases are so clear-cut, strategists need to anticipate the emergence of ideas related to limiting the ability of US naval units to use port and air facilities in the Western Pacific.
修昔底德的《米洛对话》中蕴含着一种海洋逻辑,直到现在还很少引起人们的注意;相反,观察家们把注意力集中在修昔底德从伯罗奔尼撒战争中取材的故事中所强调的更深层次的哲学和道德问题上。然而,在近2500年前推动米洛斯岛国对抗的海洋逻辑,可能会在西太平洋冲突爆发前再次出现。盟友是美国海军在该地区存在的战略推动者,美国军队正在采取措施发展概念和理论,以便在第一岛链及其沿线开展行动。在潜在的军事行动之前,拒绝进入这些后勤设施可能是中国的政治优先事项,如果北京向第一岛链的居民传递一个简单的信息:不要插手,我们不会让你插手,也就不足为奇了。所有这些都表明,“中立”的概念,正如在米利安对话中遇到的那样,可能会在危机期间再次出现。由于限制美国使用前沿作战基地的动机是如此明确,战略家们需要预测到限制美国海军部队使用西太平洋港口和空军设施的能力的想法的出现。
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引用次数: 0
United States 美国
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150435
David C. Unger
The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era Gary Gerstle. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022. £21.99/$27.95. 406 pp. Wildland: The Making of America’s Fury Evan Osnos. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021. $30.00. 480 pp. The End of Ambition: The United States and the Third World in the Vietnam Era Mark Atwood Lawrence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2021. £28.00/$35.00. 386 pp. The Wilson Circle: President Woodrow Wilson and His Advisers Charles E. Neu. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2022. £37.00/$49.95. 273 pp. Thirteen Cracks: Repairing American Democracy After Trump Allan Lichtman. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. £16.99/$21.95. 211 pp.
《新自由主义秩序的兴衰:自由市场时代的美国与世界》牛津:牛津大学出版社,2022。£21.99 / 27.95美元。406页,《荒野:美国愤怒的形成》埃文·奥斯诺斯。纽约:Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021。30.00美元。《野心的终结:越战时期的美国和第三世界》,共480页。普林斯顿,新泽西州:普林斯顿大学出版社,2021。£28.00 / 35.00美元。386页,《威尔逊圈子:伍德罗·威尔逊总统和他的顾问查尔斯·e·纽》马里兰州巴尔的摩:约翰霍普金斯大学出版社,2022年。£37.00 / 49.95美元。《十三道裂缝:修复特朗普之后的美国民主》,艾伦·利特曼著。兰哈姆,马里兰州:Rowman & Littlefield, 2021年。£16.99 / 21.95美元。211页。
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引用次数: 0
War and Arms Control: When to Pursue Cooperation 战争与军备控制:何时寻求合作
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150432
Suzanne Claeys, Heather Williams
Abstract Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeated nuclear threats in connection with the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded on 24 February 2022, and senior Russian military leaders have reportedly considered when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. On 27 October, in this context of rising nuclear risks, the US Department of Defense released its Nuclear Posture Review. It describes the present moment as a time to prepare rather than negotiate. Although now is not the time to begin negotiations towards a formal arms-control treaty, the end of the war in Ukraine will be an important opportunity for pursuing post-crisis arms-control efforts. Meanwhile, during this arms-control interlude, the United States and its allies should lay the groundwork for future arms-control efforts.
自俄罗斯于2022年2月24日入侵乌克兰以来,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京多次就乌克兰战争发出核威胁,据报道,俄罗斯高级军事领导人已经考虑了莫斯科何时以及如何在乌克兰使用战术核武器。10月27日,在核风险上升的背景下,美国国防部发布了《核态势评估报告》。它将当下时刻描述为准备而不是谈判的时刻。虽然现在不是开始谈判达成正式军备控制条约的时候,但乌克兰战争的结束将是进行危机后军备控制努力的一个重要机会。与此同时,在这段军控间歇期,美国及其盟友应该为未来的军控努力奠定基础。
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引用次数: 1
Vietnam’s Strategic Adjustments and US Policy 越南战略调整与美国政策
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150428
B. Tran
Abstract Vietnam has become an important space for Sino-US strategic competition. Hanoi is reluctant to choose a side, however. The main objectives of its foreign policy have been to avoid conflict, develop the domestic economy and defend the homeland. To advance these goals, Vietnam has maintained a strategy of independence, autonomy, openness and multilateralisation, diminishing the role of communist ideology, shifting from a continental to a maritime orientation, and enhancing its international status. A thorough understanding of these developments could enable the United States and other democratic countries to build closer ties with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries.
越南已成为中美战略竞争的重要空间。然而,河内不愿选择立场。其外交政策的主要目标是避免冲突、发展国内经济和保卫祖国。为了实现这些目标,越南坚持独立、自治、开放和多边化的战略,减少共产主义意识形态的作用,从大陆导向转向海洋导向,并提高其国际地位。对这些事态发展的全面了解可以使美国和其他民主国家与越南和其他东南亚国家建立更密切的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Counter-terrorism and Intelligence 反恐及情报
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150440
J. Stevenson
Western Jihadism: A Thirty Year History Jytte Klausen. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021. £30.00. 553 pp. It Can Happen Here: White Power and the Rising Threat of Genocide in the US Alexander Laban Hinton. New York: New York University Press, 2021. $29.00. 295 pp. Stars at Noon (film) Claire Denis, co-writer and director. Distributed by A24, 2022. White Malice: The CIA and the Neocolonisation of Africa Susan Williams. London: C. Hurst & Co., 2021. £25.00. 695 pp.
西方圣战主义:三十年的历史。牛津:牛津大学出版社,2021。£30.00。它可能发生在这里:白人权力和种族灭绝的威胁在美国上升亚历山大·拉班·辛顿。纽约:纽约大学出版社,2021。29.00美元。《正午星辰》(电影)克莱尔·丹尼斯,联合编剧兼导演。由A24分发,2022年。《白色恶意:中央情报局与非洲新殖民主义》苏珊·威廉姆斯著。伦敦:C. Hurst & Co., 2021。£25.00。695页。
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引用次数: 0
America’s Defence of Its Partners in the Middle East 美国对其中东伙伴的保护
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150425
B. Y. Saab
Abstract The main factors American presidents typically consider before committing military resources to protect a partner include perceived US national interests, US domestic politics, the nature of the attack itself, the aggressor’s military capabilities and the possibility of escalation. An additional factor is the ability and willingness of the partner to conduct joint and combined operations with the United States and possibly others. This is critically important in the Middle East. As Washington prioritises the Indo-Pacific and Europe, US military forces will draw down in the Middle East and be less able to intervene promptly. To maintain strong regional deterrence, security arrangements between the United States and its Arab partners should be reconfigured to ensure that they can confront regional threats, Iran’s in particular, without immediate American assistance. The will require American advice and assistance in creating sustainable and effective joint forces.
在动用军事资源保护合作伙伴之前,美国总统通常会考虑的主要因素包括美国的国家利益、美国国内政治、攻击本身的性质、侵略者的军事能力以及升级的可能性。另一个因素是合作伙伴是否有能力和意愿与美国以及可能的其他国家开展联合行动。这在中东至关重要。随着华盛顿优先考虑印度太平洋和欧洲,美国在中东的军事力量将减少,迅速干预的能力将下降。为了保持强大的地区威慑力,美国与其阿拉伯伙伴之间的安全安排应该重新配置,以确保他们能够在没有美国立即援助的情况下应对地区威胁,特别是伊朗的威胁。在建立可持续和有效的联合部队方面,这将需要美国的建议和协助。
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引用次数: 1
Fraught Relations: Saudi Ambitions and American Anger 紧张的关系:沙特的野心和美国的愤怒
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2150422
Emile Hokayem
Abstract The recalibration of Saudi foreign policy under Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) reflects Riyadh’s changing assessment of its relationship with the United States and its ambition to become a full-fledged geo-economic power that is less constrained by the traditional pillars of Saudi statecraft. While much attention is being paid to the acrimonious relationship between MbS and US President Joe Biden, there are structural reasons for the growing divergence between the two countries. The October 2022 OPEC+ crisis over Saudi Arabia’s oil-production cut illustrates how Riyadh is willing to prioritise its financial and energy interests even at the risk of upsetting its long-time security partner.
沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼(mohammed bin Salman)对沙特外交政策的重新调整,反映了利雅得对其与美国关系的不断变化的评估,以及其成为一个成熟的地缘经济大国的雄心,该大国不受沙特传统治国方略的限制。虽然很多人都在关注穆罕默德与美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)之间的激烈关系,但两国之间分歧日益扩大有结构性原因。2022年10月沙特阿拉伯石油减产引发的欧佩克+危机表明,利雅得愿意优先考虑其金融和能源利益,即使冒着惹恼其长期安全伙伴的风险。
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引用次数: 3
Middle East 中东
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2022.2126187
Ray Takeyh
Oil Crisis in Iran: From Nationalism to Coup d’Etat Ervand Abrahamian. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021. £29.99. 195 pp. The Paranoid Style in American Diplomacy: Oil and Arab Nationalism in Iraq Brandon Wolfe-Hunnicutt. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2021. $26.00. 309 pp. Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence Anna Borshchevskaya. London and New York: I.B. Tauris, 2021. £20.00/$27.00. 256 pp. Oil Leaders: An Insider’s Account of Four Decades of Saudi Arabia and OPEC’s Global Energy Policy Ibrahim AlMuhanna. New York: Columbia University Press, 2022. £28.00/$35.00. 304 pp. The Rise of Modern Despotism in Iran: The Shah, the Opposition, and the US, 1953–1968 Ali Rahnema. London: Oneworld Academic, 2021. £35.00/$45.00. 528 pp.
伊朗的石油危机:从民族主义到政变。剑桥:剑桥大学出版社,2021。£29.99。《美国外交中的偏执风格:伊拉克的石油和阿拉伯民族主义》,共195页。加州斯坦福:斯坦福大学出版社,2021。26.00美元。《普京的叙利亚战争:俄罗斯外交政策和美国缺席的代价》,共309页。伦敦和纽约:I.B. Tauris, 2021。£20.00 / 27.00美元。256页,《石油领袖:沙特阿拉伯四十年和欧佩克全球能源政策的内幕记述》Ibrahim AlMuhanna。纽约:哥伦比亚大学出版社,2022。£28.00 / 35.00美元。《伊朗现代专制主义的兴起:1953-1968年伊朗国王、反对派和美国》,阿里·拉赫内玛著。伦敦:寰宇一家学术出版社,2021年。£35.00 / 45.00美元。528页。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Survival
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