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Parents, Peers, and Politics: The Long-term Effects of Vertical Social Ties 父母、同龄人和政治:纵向社会关系的长期影响
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.1561/100.00019057
Linuz Aggeborn, Nazita Lajevardi, K. Lindgren, Pär Nyman, Sven Oskarsson
We examine how one’s adult political participation is affected by having social ties to a politician during adolescence. Specifically, we estimate the long-term effect of having had a classmate during upper secondary school whose parent was running for office on future voter turnout and the likelihood of running for and winning political office. We use unique Swedish population-wide administrative data and find that students in school classes with a larger number of politically active parents are more politically active as adults, both in terms of voting and political candidacy. Our results suggest that the effect of vertical social ties is predominantly mediated ∗We thank seminar participants at Uppsala University, the Oslo Turnout Workshop (2017), Swepsa (2017), APSA (2018), and MPSA (2019) for their helpful and constructive comments. Earlier versions of this paper circulated under the titles “Do Political Acquintances Make You Politically Active?” and “The Effect of Having Peers Whose Parents Are Politicians.” This research was funded by the European Research Council (ERC), grant number 683214 CONPOL, and the Swedish Research Council (VR), grant number 2017-02472. ∗∗Although the QJPS is committed to making replication material available, this article makes use of sensitive data that cannot be publicly shared. The associated replication file contains the code needed for scholars with access to the data to fully replicate the reported result. Online Appendix available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019057_app Supplementary Material available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019057_supp MS submitted on 8 April 2019; final version received 28 November 2019 ISSN 1554-0626; DOI 10.1561/100.00019057 © 2020 L. Aggeborn, N. Lajevardi, K-O. Lindgren, P. Nyman and S. Oskarsson
我们研究了青少年时期与政治家的社会关系如何影响一个人的成年政治参与。具体而言,我们估计了一位高中同学的父母正在竞选公职对未来选民投票率以及竞选和赢得政治职位的可能性的长期影响。我们使用了瑞典全国范围内独特的行政数据,发现父母政治活跃的学校班级中的学生成年后在投票和政治候选人资格方面都更积极。我们的研究结果表明,垂直社会关系的影响主要是中介的。*我们感谢乌普萨拉大学、奥斯陆投票研讨会(2017)、Swepsa(2017),APSA(2018)和MPSA(2019)的研讨会参与者的有益和建设性意见。这篇论文的早期版本以“政治成就会让你在政治上活跃吗?”和“父母都是政客的同龄人的影响”的标题流传。这项研究由欧洲研究委员会(ERC)和瑞典研究委员会(VR)资助,资助号为683214 CONPOL。**尽管QJPS致力于提供复制材料,但本文使用了无法公开共享的敏感数据。相关的复制文件包含有权访问数据的学者完全复制报告结果所需的代码。在线附录,网址:http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019057_app补充材料可从:http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019057_suppMS于2019年4月8日提交;最终版本于2019年11月28日收到ISSN 1554-0626;DOI 10.1561/100.00019057©2020 L.Aggeborn,N.Lajevardi,K-O。Lindgren、P.Nyman和S.Oskarsson
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引用次数: 2
Partisan Intoxication or Policy Voting? 党派陶醉还是政策投票?
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018027a
Anthony Fowler
Many political scientists believe that partisanship is an arbitrary psychological attachment that exerts a drug-like effect on voters' decisions. An implication is that voters don't care much about policy or government performance, and instead, elections are just a roll call of intoxicated partisans. I review and reassess the evidence for this view, concluding that there is no compelling evidence to support it. For many empirical tests, partisan intoxication and policy voting are observationally equivalent. Rare opportunities to partially distinguish between these possibilities like the southern realignment suggest that policy voting is more prevalent. When I conduct new tests utilizing survey experiments about hypothetical candidates, the weight of the evidence favors policy voting.
许多政治学家认为,党派之争是一种武断的心理依恋,会对选民的决定产生类似毒品的影响。这意味着选民不太关心政策或政府表现,相反,选举只是醉酒的党派人士的点名。我回顾并重新评估了这一观点的证据,得出的结论是没有令人信服的证据支持这一观点。对于许多实证测试来说,党派陶醉和政策投票在观察上是等效的。很少有机会部分区分这些可能性,比如南部调整,这表明政策投票更加普遍。当我利用对假设候选人的调查实验进行新的测试时,证据的分量有利于政策投票。
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引用次数: 37
Defending Sober Voters against Sensationalist Scholars: A Reply to Rogers 为清醒的选民辩护反对耸人听闻的学者:对罗杰斯的回应
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018027b
Anthony Fowler
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引用次数: 2
Letter from the Editors-in-Chief 总编的信
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI: 10.1561/100.00000001-1
Joshua D. Clinton
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引用次数: 0
Candidate Elimination in Competitive Autocracies 竞争性专制中的候选人淘汰
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018098
Shichao Ma
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引用次数: 0
An Informational Theory of Electoral Targeting in Young Clientelistic Democracies: Evidence from Senegal 年轻的裙带主义民主国家选举目标的信息理论:来自塞内加尔的证据
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-26 DOI: 10.1561/100.00019018
J. Gottlieb, Horacio Larreguy
An Informational Theory of Electoral Targeting in Young Clientelistic Democracies: Evidence from Senegal
年轻客户主义民主国家选举目标的信息理论——来自塞内加尔的证据
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引用次数: 21
How Cross-Cutting Discussion Shapes Support for Ethnic Politics: Evidence from an Experiment in Lebanon 交叉讨论如何形成对民族政治的支持:来自黎巴嫩实验的证据
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-26 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018188
Laura Paler, L. Marshall, Sami Atallah
How Cross-Cutting Discussion Shapes Support for Ethnic Politics: Evidence from an Experiment in Lebanon
交叉讨论如何形成对民族政治的支持:来自黎巴嫩实验的证据
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引用次数: 7
Democracy and its Vulnerabilities: Dynamics of Democratic Backsliding 民主及其脆弱性:民主倒退的动力
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3469373
Zhaotian Luo, A. Przeworski
The puzzle entailed in erosion of democracy by backsliding is how a catastrophic situation can be gradually brought about by steps against which people who would be adversely affected do not react in time. We investigate conditions which render democracy impregnable to backsliding and conditions which make it vulnerable. Democracy is sustainable, free from the threat of backsliding, when opposing politicians are neither very attractive nor very unattractive to citizens. To sustain it, citizens must allow more appealing incumbents to gain some security in office. Backsliding occurs either under "populism," when citizens knowingly consent to erosion of democracy because they find the incumbent highly appealing, or under "polarization," when citizens oppose the incumbent regardless of the attractiveness of the challenger, so that the incumbent can remain in office only by backsliding.
倒退对民主的侵蚀所带来的难题是,如果受到不利影响的人没有及时做出反应,灾难性的局势如何才能逐渐产生。我们调查了使民主坚不可摧的倒退条件和使其脆弱的条件。当对立的政客对公民既没有吸引力也没有吸引力时,民主是可持续的,没有倒退的威胁。为了维持它,公民必须允许更有吸引力的现任者在办公室获得一些安全感。倒退要么发生在“民粹主义”下,即公民因为发现现任总统极具吸引力而故意同意侵蚀民主,要么发生在《两极分化》下,即无论挑战者的吸引力如何,公民都反对现任总统,因此现任总统只能通过倒退来继续执政。
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引用次数: 17
Voter Response to Hispanic SoundingNames: Evidence from Down-BallotStatewide Elections 选民对听起来像西班牙人的名字的反应:来自州级选举的证据
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018092
Suzanne K. Barth, N. Mittag, Kyung H. Park
The study of how voters respond to ethnic heuristics is complicated by the possibility that candidates differ along other dimensions that affect voter choice. This paper focuses on down-ballot statewide elections in which voters are plausibly ill-informed about candidates but can still infer race and ethnicity via the informational content in their names. Using nearly two decades of election results from the state of Texas, we find evidence of voters switching party support when their party's candidate has a distinctively Hispanic name. This result is more pronounced in counties that are expected to have higher levels of racial animosity. These findings are important since holding lower statewide office is a valuable stepping stone for minority politicians who aspire to higher office.
由于候选人可能在影响选民选择的其他方面存在差异,对选民对种族启发的反应的研究变得复杂起来。本文关注的是州级选举,在这种情况下,选民似乎对候选人知之甚少,但仍然可以通过候选人名字中的信息内容推断出种族和民族。利用德克萨斯州近20年的选举结果,我们发现了当选民支持的政党候选人有一个明显的西班牙裔名字时,选民会改变对政党的支持。这一结果在种族仇恨程度较高的县更为明显。这些发现很重要,因为对于那些渴望获得更高职位的少数族裔政客来说,担任较低的州级职位是一块宝贵的垫脚石。
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引用次数: 2
Presidential Selection of SupremeCourt Nominees: The CharacteristicsApproach 总统选择最高法院提名人:特色方法
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.1561/100.00018191
C. Cameron, Jonathan P. Kastellec, Lauren A. Mattioli
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引用次数: 5
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Quarterly Journal of Political Science
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