Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102310
David Schröder
This paper analyses decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown, similar to a Lotto lottery. In a Lotto lottery, the probability of winning a prize is known, but the size of the prize is unknown. This paper proposes a theoretical framework to model preferences over Lotto lotteries as compound lotteries. The first stage determines whether a prize is obtained, while the second stage determines the size of the prize. Then the paper empirically analyses human behaviour when uncertainty can be described as a Lotto lottery. There is considerable heterogeneity in the subjects’ aversion to lotteries with unknown payoffs. Further analysis shows that choices of decision makers can be best explained by a combination of risk and ambiguity preferences. These results suggest that subjects treat unknown payoffs similar to known payoffs with ambiguous probabilities.
{"title":"Lotto lotteries — Decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown","authors":"David Schröder","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown, similar to a Lotto lottery. In a Lotto lottery, the probability of winning a prize is known, but the size of the prize is unknown. This paper proposes a theoretical framework to model preferences over Lotto lotteries as compound lotteries. The first stage determines whether a prize is obtained, while the second stage determines the size of the prize. Then the paper empirically analyses human behaviour when uncertainty can be described as a Lotto lottery. There is considerable heterogeneity in the subjects’ aversion to lotteries with unknown payoffs. Further analysis shows that choices of decision makers can be best explained by a combination of risk and ambiguity preferences. These results suggest that subjects treat unknown payoffs similar to known payoffs with ambiguous probabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 102310"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102313
Renata M. Heilman , Alexandru Ursu , Sabina R. Trif , Petko Kusev , Rose Martin , Joseph Teal
Fairness plays a pivotal role in shaping the emergence and evolution of social relationships. The equitable distribution of resources holds significant importance. In addition to resource allocation, the distribution of losses frequently arises within business or personal partnerships. In this study, we used the Ultimatum Game to investigate comparatively how people respond to fair and unfair divisions of gains and losses. In addition, we aimed to expand current knowledge on how expectations regarding monetary divisions interact with the decisional domain. A total sample of 117 undergraduate students was divided into 3 experimental conditions after the expectation induction manipulation. All participants were presented with 30 gain and 30 loss allocation offers. Our results indicate that both the expectation regarding future monetary allocations and individual decisions when confronted with unfair offers were influenced by the decisional domain. Our study is the first one to directly investigate expectations in conjunction with decisional domains.
{"title":"Expectations and social decision making: An investigation of gain and loss ultimatum games","authors":"Renata M. Heilman , Alexandru Ursu , Sabina R. Trif , Petko Kusev , Rose Martin , Joseph Teal","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fairness plays a pivotal role in shaping the emergence and evolution of social relationships. The equitable distribution of resources holds significant importance. In addition to resource allocation, the distribution of losses frequently arises within business or personal partnerships. In this study, we used the Ultimatum Game to investigate comparatively how people respond to fair and unfair divisions of gains and losses. In addition, we aimed to expand current knowledge on how expectations regarding monetary divisions interact with the decisional domain. A total sample of 117 undergraduate students was divided into 3 experimental conditions after the expectation induction manipulation. All participants were presented with 30 gain and 30 loss allocation offers. Our results indicate that both the expectation regarding future monetary allocations and individual decisions when confronted with unfair offers were influenced by the decisional domain. Our study is the first one to directly investigate expectations in conjunction with decisional domains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 102313"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-13DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102308
Sung-Hoon Park
We model two players’ emotions with externalities as a three-stage game in which each player can disclose their emotional information. To solve for the equilibrium of the game, we work backwards. In equilibrium, we obtain the following results. First, players reveal their emotional information. Second, the factor determining a player's emotion is the externality generated by the other player's effort—a player reveals altruism (envy) if the opponent's effort generates a positive (negative) externality. Third, when players’ efforts generate negative externalities, a prisoner's dilemma arises. Fourth, each player's effort level and payoff change according to combinations of emotions and externalities—e.g., an altruist increases (decreases) their effort levels when the generated positive (negative) externalities increase, enhancing the increase in (mitigating the decrease in) the opponent's payoff.
{"title":"Effects of externalities on emotions: A game-theoretic analysis","authors":"Sung-Hoon Park","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102308","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102308","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We model two players’ emotions with externalities as a three-stage game in which each player can disclose their emotional information. To solve for the equilibrium of the game, we work backwards. In equilibrium, we obtain the following results. First, players reveal their emotional information. Second, the factor determining a player's emotion is the externality generated by the other player's effort—a player reveals altruism (envy) if the opponent's effort generates a positive (negative) externality. Third, when players’ efforts generate negative externalities, a prisoner's dilemma arises. Fourth, each player's effort level and payoff change according to combinations of emotions and externalities—e.g., an altruist increases (decreases) their effort levels when the generated positive (negative) externalities increase, enhancing the increase in (mitigating the decrease in) the opponent's payoff.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 102308"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-08DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102311
Cornelia Chadi , Uwe Jirjahn
Previous international research suggests that women are on average more risk averse than men. This gives rise to the question of whether the gender gap in risk attitudes is shaped by the social environment. We address this question by examining risk attitudes among East and West Germans. Even many years after reunification, East Germans have much more equal gender roles than West Germans. Thus, if the gender gap reflects socially constructed norms, it should be smaller among East Germans. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), our empirical analysis confirms this prediction. Specifically with respect to career and financial matters, the gender gap in risk tolerance is smaller among East Germans. We find no evidence that the East German gender gap has converged to the higher West German level after reunification. By contrast, our estimates provide some cautious indications that the West German gap has narrowed over time.
{"title":"Does society influence the gender gap in risk attitudes? Evidence from East and West Germany","authors":"Cornelia Chadi , Uwe Jirjahn","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous international research suggests that women are on average more risk averse than men. This gives rise to the question of whether the gender gap in risk attitudes is shaped by the social environment. We address this question by examining risk attitudes among East and West Germans. Even many years after reunification, East Germans have much more equal gender roles than West Germans. Thus, if the gender gap reflects socially constructed norms, it should be smaller among East Germans. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), our empirical analysis confirms this prediction. Specifically with respect to career and financial matters, the gender gap in risk tolerance is smaller among East Germans. We find no evidence that the East German gender gap has converged to the higher West German level after reunification. By contrast, our estimates provide some cautious indications that the West German gap has narrowed over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102311"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102304
Eleonora Freddi , Ole Christian Wasenden
In this paper we investigate people’s attitudes to privacy and sharing of personal data when used to help society combat a contagious disease, such as COVID-19. Through a two-wave survey, we investigate the role of personal characteristics, and the effect of information, in shaping privacy attitudes. By conducting the survey in Norway and Sweden, which adopted very different strategies to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze potential differences in privacy attitudes due to policy changes. We find that privacy concern is negatively correlated with allowing public use of personal data. Trust in the entity collecting data and collectivist preferences are positively correlated with this type of data usage. Providing more information about the public benefit of sharing personal data makes respondents more positive to the use of their data, while providing additional information about the costs associated with data sharing does not change attitudes. The analysis suggests that stating a clear purpose and benefit for the data collection makes respondents more positive about sharing. Despite very different policy approaches, we do not find any major differences in privacy attitudes between Norway and Sweden. Findings are also similar between the two survey waves, suggesting a minor role for contextual changes.
{"title":"Privacy during pandemics: Attitudes to public use of personal data","authors":"Eleonora Freddi , Ole Christian Wasenden","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we investigate people’s attitudes to privacy and sharing of personal data when used to help society combat a contagious disease, such as COVID-19. Through a two-wave survey, we investigate the role of personal characteristics, and the effect of information, in shaping privacy attitudes. By conducting the survey in Norway and Sweden, which adopted very different strategies to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze potential differences in privacy attitudes due to policy changes. We find that privacy concern is negatively correlated with allowing public use of personal data. Trust in the entity collecting data and collectivist preferences are positively correlated with this type of data usage. Providing more information about the public benefit of sharing personal data makes respondents more positive to the use of their data, while providing additional information about the costs associated with data sharing does not change attitudes. The analysis suggests that stating a clear purpose and benefit for the data collection makes respondents more positive about sharing. Despite very different policy approaches, we do not find any major differences in privacy attitudes between Norway and Sweden. Findings are also similar between the two survey waves, suggesting a minor role for contextual changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102304"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102307
Haftom Bayray Kahsay , Simone Piras , Laure Kuhfuss , Marco Setti , Valentino Marini Govigli
Recent empirical studies eliciting farmers’ risk attitudes through lab-in-the-field experiments have reported high levels of inconsistency in responses. We investigate inconsistencies in risk attitudes elicitation games using data from incentivized lotteries involving 2,319 smallholder farmers from Eastern Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania) and Northern Africa (Tunisia, Morocco). Our sample demonstrates high levels of inconsistent behavior, with 48 % of the farmers exhibiting some type of inconsistency. Depending on the country, inconsistencies are explained by poverty, gender, and/or the interaction of gender and level of education. We find no significant impact (negative or positive) of education alone in all but one country model. Furthermore, we find session fixed effects to significantly explain inconsistencies in many cases, suggesting that session-specific circumstances, including inconsistencies across enumerators, play a crucial role in the successful implementation of these experiments. Our findings suggest that using risk attitude parameters without accounting for the presence and the potential causes of inconsistency may lead to unreliable results. This study may guide practitioners in identifying farmer typologies more prone to inconsistent decisions and inform policymakers about factors influencing operators’ choices.
{"title":"Understanding inconsistencies in risk attitude elicitation games: Evidence from smallholder farmers in five African countries","authors":"Haftom Bayray Kahsay , Simone Piras , Laure Kuhfuss , Marco Setti , Valentino Marini Govigli","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102307","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102307","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent empirical studies eliciting farmers’ risk attitudes through lab-in-the-field experiments have reported high levels of inconsistency in responses. We investigate inconsistencies in risk attitudes elicitation games using data from incentivized lotteries involving 2,319 smallholder farmers from Eastern Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania) and Northern Africa (Tunisia, Morocco). Our sample demonstrates high levels of inconsistent behavior, with 48 % of the farmers exhibiting some type of inconsistency. Depending on the country, inconsistencies are explained by poverty, gender, and/or the interaction of gender and level of education. We find no significant impact (negative or positive) of education alone in all but one country model. Furthermore, we find session fixed effects to significantly explain inconsistencies in many cases, suggesting that session-specific circumstances, including inconsistencies across enumerators, play a crucial role in the successful implementation of these experiments. Our findings suggest that using risk attitude parameters without accounting for the presence and the potential causes of inconsistency may lead to unreliable results. This study may guide practitioners in identifying farmer typologies more prone to inconsistent decisions and inform policymakers about factors influencing operators’ choices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102307"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102303
Geghetsik Afunts , Misina Cato , Tobias Schmidt
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. These significant deviations from the central bank’s target, highlight an elevated risk of de-anchoring of inflation expectations early in March 2022. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large geopolitical shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
{"title":"Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine","authors":"Geghetsik Afunts , Misina Cato , Tobias Schmidt","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. These significant deviations from the central bank’s target, highlight an elevated risk of de-anchoring of inflation expectations early in March 2022. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large geopolitical shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102303"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102309
Stepan Vesely , Erik Wengström
A potential mechanism to explain changes in cooperativeness in the presence of risk may be opportunities for informal risk sharing. Using a novel experimental design, we show that the presence of both independent and correlated risk prevents the typical decay of cooperation in a laboratory social dilemma game. Notably, this result seems to rule out risk sharing as a possible mechanism behind the cooperation increase. Exploratory analyses tentatively suggest that behavior consistent with a risk sharing account may emerge late in the game, congruent with previous theorizing of slow learning in stochastic environments.
{"title":"Increased cooperation in stochastic social dilemmas: Can it be explained by risk sharing?","authors":"Stepan Vesely , Erik Wengström","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A potential mechanism to explain changes in cooperativeness in the presence of risk may be opportunities for informal risk sharing. Using a novel experimental design, we show that the presence of both independent and correlated risk prevents the typical decay of cooperation in a laboratory social dilemma game. Notably, this result seems to rule out risk sharing as a possible mechanism behind the cooperation increase. Exploratory analyses tentatively suggest that behavior consistent with a risk sharing account may emerge late in the game, congruent with previous theorizing of slow learning in stochastic environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 102309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102305
Jason Jabbari, Stephen Roll, Laura Brugger
Given the importance of college savings and the novel technologies that make gifting more accessible, new programs have been developed to increase college savings contributions among families and friends. Backer, an online college-savings platform that allows 529 account holders to "crowdfund'' their child's education by inviting a team of contributors, is one of the first and largest organizations to facilitate such contributions among families and friends. We conducted a field experiment to examine the impact of a suite of interventions aimed at increasing both parent contributions through visual reminders and the contributions of family members and friends through account incentives. We find that visual reminders significantly increased the amount of contributors and the frequency of contributions. We find similar effects for a combination of visual reminders and relatively large recruitment incentives. This pattern of results indicates that it is likely the reminder component of the interventions, rather than the incentives themselves, that drove the improvements in study outcomes.
{"title":"Asking for a friend: Reminders and incentives for crowdfunding college savings","authors":"Jason Jabbari, Stephen Roll, Laura Brugger","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the importance of college savings and the novel technologies that make gifting more accessible, new programs have been developed to increase college savings contributions among families and friends. Backer, an online college-savings platform that allows 529 account holders to \"crowdfund'' their child's education by inviting a team of contributors, is one of the first and largest organizations to facilitate such contributions among families and friends. We conducted a field experiment to examine the impact of a suite of interventions aimed at increasing both parent contributions through visual reminders and the contributions of family members and friends through account incentives. We find that visual reminders significantly increased the amount of contributors and the frequency of contributions. We find similar effects for a combination of visual reminders and relatively large recruitment incentives. This pattern of results indicates that it is likely the reminder component of the interventions, rather than the incentives themselves, that drove the improvements in study outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102305"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-26DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102306
Hamza Umer , Takashi Kurosaki
Many panel surveys elicit information about past events multiple times. It is, however, unclear whether respondents manipulate their past information and update it according to their current circumstances in the later rounds of the panel. We term such a systematic bias in reporting past information as “update bias” in this study. We systematically test the presence of update bias in panel data by comparing teenage religiosity obtained from adults first in 2019 and later in 2022 in the Netherlands. Respondents who become more (less) religious in 2022 than 2019 are likelier to report a higher (lower) teenage religiosity in 2022. Even when we use data with a narrower gap (2019 and 2020 survey waves), we still obtain similar results. Overall, the analysis provides strong evidence for update bias. We suggest that the theory of cognitive dissonance best explains our findings; individuals manipulate their teenage religiosity to minimize dissonance between the past and current religious state and to obtain a higher satisfaction. Unlike predominant existing literature that argues people modify their current beliefs according to previous anchors, we provide contrary evidence where people manipulate their past beliefs following their current circumstances.
{"title":"‘Update Bias’: Manipulating past information based on the existing circumstances","authors":"Hamza Umer , Takashi Kurosaki","doi":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102306","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.socec.2024.102306","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many panel surveys elicit information about past events multiple times. It is, however, unclear whether respondents manipulate their past information and update it according to their current circumstances in the later rounds of the panel. We term such a systematic bias in reporting past information as “update bias” in this study. We systematically test the presence of update bias in panel data by comparing teenage religiosity obtained from adults first in 2019 and later in 2022 in the Netherlands. Respondents who become more (less) religious in 2022 than 2019 are likelier to report a higher (lower) teenage religiosity in 2022. Even when we use data with a narrower gap (2019 and 2020 survey waves), we still obtain similar results. Overall, the analysis provides strong evidence for update bias. We suggest that the theory of cognitive dissonance best explains our findings; individuals manipulate their teenage religiosity to minimize dissonance between the past and current religious state and to obtain a higher satisfaction. Unlike predominant existing literature that argues people modify their current beliefs according to previous anchors, we provide contrary evidence where people manipulate their past beliefs following their current circumstances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51637,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102306"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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