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Coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic prediction in Shanghai under the “dynamic zero-COVID policy” using time-dependent SEAIQR model 基于时变SEAIQR模型的“动态零冠政策”下上海2019年冠状病毒病流行预测
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.06.002
Yifei Ma , Shujun Xu , Qi An , Mengxia Qin , Sitian Li , Kangkang Lu , Jiantao Li , Lijian Lei , Lu He , Hongmei Yu , Jun Xie

It’s urgently needed to assess the COVID-19 epidemic under the “dynamic zero-COVID policy” in China, which provides a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of this strategy in COVID-19 control. Here, we developed a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infected-quarantined-removed (SEAIQR) model with stage-specific interventions based on recent Shanghai epidemic data, considering a large number of asymptomatic infectious, the changing parameters, and control procedures. The data collected from March 1st, 2022 to April 15th, 2022 were used to fit the model, and the data of subsequent 7 days and 14 days were used to evaluate the model performance of forecasting. We then calculated the effective regeneration number (Rt) and analyzed the sensitivity of different measures scenarios. Asymptomatic infectious accounts for the vast majority of the outbreaks in Shanghai, and Pudong is the district with the most positive cases. The peak of newly confirmed cases and newly asymptomatic infectious predicted by the SEAIQR model would appear on April 13th, 2022, with 1963 and 28,502 cases, respectively, and zero community transmission may be achieved in early to mid-May. The prediction errors for newly confirmed cases were considered to be reasonable, and newly asymptomatic infectious were considered to be good between April 16th to 22nd and reasonable between April 16th to 29th. The final ranges of cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative asymptomatic infectious predicted in this round of the epidemic were 26,477 ∼ 47,749 and 402,254 ∼ 730,176, respectively. At the beginning of the outbreak, Rt was 6.69. Since the implementation of comprehensive control, Rt showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on April 15th, 2022. With the early implementation of control measures and the improvement of quarantine rate, recovery rate, and immunity threshold, the peak number of infections will continue to decrease, whereas the earlier the control is implemented, the earlier the turning point of the epidemic will arrive. The proposed time-dependent SEAIQR dynamic model fits and forecasts the epidemic well, which can provide a reference for decision making of the “dynamic zero-COVID policy”.

中国迫切需要在“动态零疫情”政策下对新冠肺炎疫情进行评估,为评估“动态零疫情”策略在新冠肺炎防控中的有效性提供科学依据。在此,我们基于近期上海疫情数据,考虑到大量无症状感染者、参数变化和控制程序,建立了一个具有阶段特异性干预措施的时变易感暴露-无症状感染-隔离移除(SEAIQR)模型。采用2022年3月1日至2022年4月15日的数据对模型进行拟合,随后7天和14天的数据对模型的预测效果进行评价。然后计算了有效再生数(Rt),并分析了不同测量方案的敏感性。无症状感染者占上海疫情的绝大多数,其中浦东是阳性病例最多的地区。SEAIQR模型预测的新增确诊病例高峰和新增无症状感染者高峰将出现在2022年4月13日,分别为1963例和28502例,5月上中旬可能实现零社区传播。4月16日至22日新增无症状感染者预测误差合理,4月16日至29日新增无症状感染者预测误差合理。预计此次疫情的最终累计确诊人数和累计无症状感染者分别为26477 ~ 47749人和402254 ~ 730176人。在疫情开始时,Rt为6.69。综合调控实施以来,Rt呈逐渐下降趋势,至2022年4月15日降至1.0以下。随着控制措施的尽早实施,检疫率、回收率、免疫阈值的提高,感染高峰人数将继续减少,而控制措施越早实施,疫情拐点越早到来。提出的SEAIQR动态模型具有较好的拟合和预测效果,可为“动态零冠政策”的决策提供参考。
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引用次数: 11
Smart heightened-containment biological laboratory: Technologies, modules, and aims 智能强化防护生物实验室:技术、模块和目标
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.06.003
Jiaming Li , Zhongyi Wang , Gang Tao , Yingying Fu , Yifei Jin , Hongliang Cheng , Jingjing Li , Xinrong Shu , Jianjian Yang , Jiuxiang Yang , Bing Lu

With the rapid development of intelligent technology, the smart heightened-containment biological laboratory (sHCBL) has moved from concept to reality. Experimental activities and laboratory construction, operation, and management will undoubtedly lead to disruptive changes. Conventional laboratories are increasingly being replaced by smart laboratories; however, the key technologies involved in this transition remain at an exploratory stage. It is necessary for HCBLs to absorb the advanced ideas of smart laboratories to guarantee the establishment of biosafety and biosecurity in a more automated way. This study examines in detail sHCBL module structures, the functions of each module, laboratory operation processes, and the advanced nature of smart laboratories. It may provide a theoretical foundation for the future transformation and smart construction of sHCBLs.

随着智能技术的飞速发展,智能高安全壳生物实验室已经从概念走向现实。实验活动和实验室的建设、运营和管理无疑将导致颠覆性的变化。传统实验室正日益被智能实验室所取代;然而,这一转变所涉及的关键技术仍处于探索阶段。HCBLs有必要吸收智能实验室的先进理念,以更加自动化的方式保障生物安全和生物安全的建立。本研究详细探讨了sHCBL的模块结构、各模块的功能、实验室操作流程以及智能实验室的先进性。可为今后小户型图书馆的转型和智能化建设提供理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Overview and prospects of food biosafety 食品生物安全综述与展望
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.11.001
Xiaofeng Hu , Baichuan Xu , Yang Xiao , Shengnan Liang , Chuanfu Zhang , Hongbin Song

Biosafety issues have become a major threat to the health of humans, animals, and ecosystems worldwide. As problems with food production and the food supply chain have become of greater concern to consumers, issues involving biosafety and food safety from a developmental perspective need to be urgently addressed. The term, food biosafety, is the combination of the core concepts of biosafety and food safety. It refers to the effective prevention of biological threats to food production and the food supply chain by controlling foodborne diseases arising from the consumption of edible plants and animal products, by preventing the establishment of invasive species, by strictly controlling the use of antibiotics, agricultural chemicals and veterinary drugs in the food supply chain, and by initiating food defense and anti-terrorism measures to protect the health of humans, animals, and ecosystems, thereby maintaining sustainable development in China. This article provides theoretical support for the extension of food biosafety to propose an innovative plan for the international co-governance of food safety.

生物安全问题已成为全球人类、动物和生态系统健康的主要威胁。随着食品生产和食品供应链问题日益受到消费者的关注,生物安全和食品安全问题亟待从发展的角度加以解决。食品生物安全是生物安全与食品安全这两个核心概念的结合。是指通过控制食用动植物产品引起的食源性疾病,防止入侵物种的建立,严格控制抗生素、农用化学品和兽药在食品供应链中的使用,发起食品防御和反恐措施,保护人类、动物和生态系统的健康,有效预防食品生产和食品供应链中的生物威胁。从而保持中国的可持续发展。本文为食品生物安全的延伸提供理论支持,提出了食品安全国际共治的创新方案。
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引用次数: 0
Tier-based approach to establish a culture of biosafety at a medical microbiology research laboratory in Egypt 在埃及医学微生物学研究实验室建立生物安全培养的分层方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2021.09.004
Mona El-Shokry, Nesma Hamdi, Shimaa Abdel Salam, Nagwa M. Abo El Magd

Microbiology Research Laboratory (MRL) is a biosafety level-2 (BSL-2) research laboratory located at the main campus of Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University (ASU) in Cairo. With the objective of strengthening the departmental capacities of biosafety, a series of activities were carried out between October 2019, and January 2020 to raise awareness, along with instilling standard biosafety practices and procedures among laboratory staff including non-health professions. MRL staff were categorized according to their biosafety knowledge into three tiers: tier (1): with zero to minimal knowledge, tier (2): with basic knowledge, tier (3): with satisfactory knowledge. Tier based activities were designed to align with their job responsibilities. Results: 44 selected laboratory staff were trained on biosafety practices: 12 from tier (1), 19 from tier (2) and 13 constituted tier (3). Through regular follow-ups, the impact of the implemnted training plan was reflected on the practices and knowledge of all laboratory staff. Knowledge among health professions has increased by 60%. Furthermore, 6 staff members have granted a biosafety certification by International Federation of Biosafety Association (IFBSA). Conclusion: establishing a culture of biosafety within microbiology research laboratories is integral to safe research practices. Together with developing local and national biosafety regulations and policies will ensure research advancement without compromising public health or environmental safety.

微生物研究实验室(MRL)是位于开罗艾因沙姆斯大学医学院主校区的生物安全二级(BSL-2)研究实验室。为了加强各部门的生物安全能力,在2019年10月至2020年1月期间开展了一系列活动,以提高认识,同时向实验室工作人员(包括非卫生专业人员)灌输标准的生物安全做法和程序。MRL工作人员根据其生物安全知识分为三个层次:第(1)层:零知识到最低知识,第(2)层:基本知识,第(3)层:满意知识。基于层级的活动旨在与他们的工作职责保持一致。结果:选定44名实验室人员接受了生物安全操作规程培训,其中第(1)级12人,第(2)级19人,第(3)级13人。通过定期随访,培训计划的实施对所有实验室人员的操作和知识的影响得到了体现。卫生专业人员的知识增加了60%。此外,有6名工作人员获得了国际生物安全协会联合会(IFBSA)的生物安全认证。结论:在微生物研究实验室中建立生物安全文化是安全研究实践的组成部分。在制定地方和国家生物安全法规和政策的同时,将确保在不损害公共健康或环境安全的情况下推进研究。
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引用次数: 3
Scientists’ interest in monkeypox may help countries worldwide 科学家对猴痘的兴趣可能会帮助世界各国
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.06.005
Li Zhenjun , Shunfeng Er
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引用次数: 0
Strengthening biological security after COVID-19: Using cartoons for engaging life science stakeholders with the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) 2019冠状病毒病后加强生物安全:利用漫画让生命科学利益攸关方参与《生物和毒素武器公约》(BTWC)
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.03.001
Tatyana Novossiolova , Simon Whitby , Malcolm Dando , Lijun Shang

The devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have acutely shown the need for maintaining robust international and national systems for biological security and ensuring that life sciences are used only for peaceful purposes. Life science stakeholders can play an important role in safeguarding scientific and technological advances in biology and related fields against accidental or deliberate misuse, not least because they are on the frontlines of driving innovation. In this paper, we argue that enhancing awareness and understanding of the risk of deliberate disease is essential for effective biological security. We first discuss the issue of ‘dual use’ in science and technology as it relates to disarmament and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Second, we review how scientist engagement with dual-use risks has been addressed in the context of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). Third, we report on the development of an innovative awareness-raising tool, a cartoon series, that can be used for engaging life science stakeholders with BTWC issues. Finally, we outline a set of practical considerations for promoting sustainable life science engagement with the BTWC.

2019冠状病毒病大流行的破坏性影响强烈表明,需要维持强有力的国际和国家生物安全体系,并确保生命科学仅用于和平目的。生命科学利益相关者可以在保护生物学和相关领域的科学技术进步免受意外或故意滥用方面发挥重要作用,尤其是因为他们处于推动创新的前沿。在本文中,我们认为提高对故意疾病风险的认识和理解对于有效的生物安全至关重要。我们首先讨论科学和技术的“双重用途”问题,因为它与裁军和不扩散大规模毁灭性武器有关。其次,我们回顾了在《生物和毒素武器公约》(BTWC)的背景下如何解决科学家参与军民两用风险的问题。第三,我们报告了一个创新的提高认识工具的开发,一个漫画系列,可以用来吸引生命科学利益相关者参与生物多样性公约问题。最后,我们概述了一套促进可持续生命科学参与生物多样性公约的实际考虑因素。
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引用次数: 4
Challenges and recent progress in the governance of biosecurity risks in the era of synthetic biology 合成生物学时代生物安全风险治理的挑战和最新进展
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.02.002
Tao Sun , Jie Song , Meng Wang , Chao Zhao , Weiwen Zhang

Considerable progress has been achieved in basic research and the biotechnological application of biological sciences in recent years. Synthetic biology integrates systems biology, engineering, computer science, and other disciplines to achieve the “modification of life” or even the “creation of life” via the redesign of existing natural systems or the development of new biological components and devices. However, the research and application of synthetic biology can create potential risks, such as aggravation of species with complex gene modifications, threats to species diversity, abuse of biological weapons, laboratory leaks, and man-made mutations. Without a suitable governance system, such research activities could result in harm to humans, plants, and animals, as well as to natural ecological systems. In this article, we first briefly summarize technical progress in synthetic biology in recent years and the potential bioethical and biosecurity risks, and then describe current international treaties, guidance documents, and national regulatory measures designed to address potential harm caused by the dual-use property of synthetic biology, including the Biological Weapons Convention, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Model Code of Conduct for Biological Scientists (Tianjin Biosecurity Guidelines for Codes of Conduct for Scientists). In addition, we also present some recommendations for better governance of synthetic biology research and applications in China, including strengthening the biosecurity capacity, improving the biosecurity regulatory system, and promoting multilevel international cooperation to effectively address the potential biosecurity risks of synthetic biology.

近年来,生物科学的基础研究和生物技术应用取得了长足的进步。合成生物学整合了系统生物学、工程学、计算机科学等学科,通过重新设计现有的自然系统或开发新的生物部件和装置,实现“生命的修改”甚至“生命的创造”。然而,合成生物学的研究和应用可能带来潜在的风险,如复杂基因修饰的物种恶化、物种多样性受到威胁、生物武器滥用、实验室泄漏和人为突变等。如果没有合适的治理体系,这类研究活动可能会对人类、植物和动物以及自然生态系统造成危害。本文首先简要总结了近年来合成生物学的技术进展和潜在的生物伦理和生物安全风险,然后介绍了现有的国际条约、指导性文件和国家监管措施,包括《生物武器公约》、《生物多样性公约》、《生物武器公约》和《生物武器公约》。《生物科学家行为规范示范》(《天津市生物安全科学家行为规范指南》)。此外,本文还提出了加强中国合成生物学研究和应用治理的建议,包括加强生物安全能力建设、完善生物安全监管体系、促进多层次国际合作,以有效应对合成生物学潜在的生物安全风险。
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引用次数: 9
Evaluation of animal biosafety webinar series for professionals working in animal facilities across Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic 新冠肺炎大流行期间为巴基斯坦各地动物设施工作的专业人员举办的动物生物安全网络研讨会系列评估
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2021.11.004
Saima Mohsin , Shamsul Arfin Qasmi , Samreen Sarwar

Experimental research with animals can help the prevention, cure, and alleviation of human ailments. Animal research facilities are critical for scientific advancement, but they can also pose a higher risk than other biomedical laboratories. Zoonosis, allergic reactions, bites, cuts, and scratches by animals are all substantial concerns that can occur in animal facilities. Furthermore, human error and unexpected animal behavior pose a risk not just to humans, but also to the environment and the animals themselves. The majority of biosafety and biosecurity training programs focus on clinical and biomedical laboratories dealing with human safety factors, with little emphasis on animal biosafety. The current virtual training was designed to improve biosafety and biosecurity capabilities of animal laboratory personnel, researchers, and veterinarians from different regions of Pakistan. The results revealed that understanding was improved regarding triggers for risk assessment in addition to annual and regular reviews (56% to 69%), biosecurity (21% to 50%), decontamination (17% to 35%), safe handling of sharps (21% to 35%), Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) (17% to 40%), Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) usage by waste handlers (60.9% to 75%), waste management (56% to 85%), animal biosafety levels (40.57% to 45%), and good microbiological practices and procedures (17% to 35%). To bring human and animal laboratories up to the same level in terms of biosafety and biosecurity, it is critical to focus on areas that have been overlooked in the past. Training programs focusing on animal biosafety should be conducted more frequently to strengthen bio risk management systems in animal research facilities.

动物实验研究可以帮助预防、治疗和减轻人类疾病。动物研究设施对科学进步至关重要,但它们也可能比其他生物医学实验室带来更高的风险。人畜共患病、过敏反应、动物咬伤、割伤和抓伤都是动物设施中可能发生的重大问题。此外,人类的错误和意外的动物行为不仅对人类,而且对环境和动物本身构成风险。大多数生物安全和生物安全培训计划侧重于处理人类安全因素的临床和生物医学实验室,很少强调动物生物安全。目前的虚拟培训旨在提高来自巴基斯坦不同地区的动物实验室人员、研究人员和兽医的生物安全和生物安保能力。结果显示,除了年度和定期审查(56%至69%)、生物安全(21%至50%)、去污(17%至35%)、利器的安全处理(21%至35%)、双重用途研究(DURC)(17%至40%)、废物处理者个人防护装备(PPE)的使用(60.9%至75%)、废物管理(56%至85%)、动物生物安全水平(40.57%至45%)之外,对风险评估触发因素的理解有所提高。良好的微生物实践和程序(17%至35%)。为了使人类和动物实验室在生物安全和生物保障方面达到相同的水平,重点关注过去被忽视的领域是至关重要的。应更频繁地开展以动物生物安全为重点的培训项目,以加强动物研究设施的生物风险管理系统。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of biosafety implementation in clinical diagnostic laboratories in Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19大流行期间巴基斯坦临床诊断实验室生物安全实施情况评估
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.01.001
Samreen Sarwar , Faheem Shahzad , Ayesha Vajeeha , Rimsha Munir , Amina Yaqoob , Aniqa Naeem , Mamoona Sattar , Sheereen Gull

Laboratory diagnostic capacity is crucial for an optimal national response to a public health emergency such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Preventing laboratory-acquired infections and the loss of critical human resources, especially during a public health emergency, requires laboratories to have a good biorisk management system in place. In this study, we aimed to evaluate laboratory biosafety and biosecurity in Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this cross-sectional study, a self-rated anonymous questionnaire was distributed to laboratory professionals (LPs) working in clinical diagnostic laboratories, including laboratories performing polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based COVID-19 diagnostic testing in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan provinces as well as Islamabad during March 2020 to April 2020. The questionnaire assessed knowledge and perceptions of LPs, resource availability, and commitment by top management in these laboratories. In total, 58.6% of LPs performing COVID-19 testing reported that their laboratory did not conduct a biorisk assessment before starting COVID-19 testing in their facility. Only 31% of LPs were aware that COVID-19 testing could be performed at a biosafety level 2 laboratory, as per the World Health Organization interim biosafety guidelines. A sufficiently high percentage of LPs did not feel confident in their ability to handle COVID-19 samples (32.8%), spills (43.1%), or other accidents (32.8%). These findings demonstrate the need for effective biosafety program implementation, proper training, and establishing competency assessment methods. These findings also suggested that identifying and addressing gaps in existing biorisk management systems through sustainable interventions and preparing LPs for surge capacity is crucial to better address public health emergencies.

实验室诊断能力对于国家对COVID-19大流行等突发公共卫生事件做出最佳反应至关重要。预防实验室获得性感染和关键人力资源的损失,特别是在突发公共卫生事件期间,需要实验室具备良好的生物风险管理系统。在本研究中,我们旨在评估2019冠状病毒病大流行期间巴基斯坦的实验室生物安全和生物安全。在这项横断研究中,在2020年3月至2020年4月期间,向在旁遮普省、信德省、开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省和吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦省以及伊斯兰堡的临床诊断实验室工作的实验室专业人员(LPs)分发了一份自评匿名问卷。这些实验室进行基于聚合酶链反应(PCR)的COVID-19诊断检测。调查问卷评估了这些实验室对有限合伙人的知识和看法、资源可用性和高层管理人员的承诺。总共有58.6%进行COVID-19检测的lp报告说,他们的实验室在开始在其设施中进行COVID-19检测之前没有进行生物风险评估。只有31%的有限责任公司知道,根据世界卫生组织的临时生物安全指南,COVID-19检测可以在生物安全2级实验室进行。相当高比例的有限合伙人对自己处理COVID-19样本(32.8%)、泄漏(43.1%)或其他事故(32.8%)的能力没有信心。这些发现表明,需要有效的生物安全计划实施,适当的培训,并建立能力评估方法。这些发现还表明,通过可持续干预措施确定和解决现有生物风险管理系统中的差距,并为应急响应能力做好准备,对于更好地应对突发公共卫生事件至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
Recent developments and trends of automatic nucleic acid detection systems 核酸自动检测系统的最新发展和趋势
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.02.001
Xujun Yuan , Guodong Sui , Dawei Zhang , Min Chen , Wang Zhao

Nucleic acid detection, widely used in clinical diagnosis, biological analysis, and environmental monitoring, is of great significance for disease diagnosis and basic research. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the demand for fast and high-throughput nucleic acid detection from large numbers of samples has increased sharply. Automated nucleic acid detection systems can meet these needs, and also play important roles in disease screening and infectious disease prevention and control. In this review, we introduce and compare the current mainstream nucleic acid automatic detection instruments and equipment, then discuss the future demands of nucleic acid detection.

核酸检测广泛应用于临床诊断、生物分析、环境监测等领域,对疾病诊断和基础研究具有重要意义。随着新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,对大量样本快速、高通量核酸检测的需求急剧增加。自动化核酸检测系统可以满足这些需求,在疾病筛查和传染病防控中也发挥着重要作用。本文对目前主流的核酸自动检测仪器和设备进行了介绍和比较,并对未来核酸检测的需求进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 5
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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity
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