Climate Risk Management最新文献

Climate change beliefs drive individual actions tackling climate change and influence the support of climate change policies. In the last two years, however, humanity has faced a parallel global crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic. The widely communicated finite pool of worry theory suggests that consideration of a crisis usually decreases when another crisis is emerging. Nevertheless, according to recent evidence, climate change concerns or awareness have increased during the pandemic. In this study, we aimed at describing recent changes in climate change concerns and examining the effect of COVID-fear on climate change worry in 28 European countries drawing on data from nationally representative surveys. We observed a strong increase in climate change concerns between 2016 and 2021, and a slight additional increase between during the pandemic (between 2020 and 2021) in the 28 countries examined, especially in those countries, where the level of concern was originally lower. The results of the multilevel models showed that COVID-19 fear reinforces climate change concerns which contradicts the finite pool of worry theory. These findings may come as good news given that increasing climate change concerns may raise individuals' support of climate policies, however, carefully designed awareness-raising campaigns are needed.

An actor-centred, risk-based framework for analysing limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts, developed in the context of IPCC AR5 (Dow et al,. 2013b), was refined in the IPCC AR6 reports (Mechler et al., 2020; O’Neill et al., 2022; Thomas et al., 2021). In this paper, we centre the analysis on how institutional contexts shape and influence adaptation limits as experienced by social actors. We emphasise institutions’ stability over time leading to delayed adaptation, their role in protecting more powerful rather than weaker social interests, and their tendency to generate punctuated rather than smooth changes in vulnerability to climate risks. We illustrate these arguments with two case studies of socio-ecological institutional regimes facing adaptation limits: water resources management in the Colorado River Basin; and disaster risk management in The Bahamas. These represent divergent risk governance contexts generating limits to adaptation for multiple social actors, despite the availability of plausible adaptation pathways. Our aim is to contribute to a generalisable approach to adaptation limits which can be applied in identifying and assessing critical choices in responses to growing climate change impacts.

Land-use planning plays a key role in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Many strategies for adaptation to climate change are associated with land-use planning, including the use of smart transportation to reduce emissions and coastal buffer zones to enable communities to adapt to rising sea levels. Local governments tend to integrate certain adaptation strategies into their land-use planning by engaging public and private city departments to address aspects such as health and safety. In recent years, many researchers and planners have established a link between climate change adaptation and sustainability development. They have also developed an effective sustainability indicator system for spatial planning. In this study, Tainan City was used as a case study to develop land-use adaptation indicators in response to climate events through the integration of climate change adaptation policies, spatial planning approaches, and local sustainability indicators to establish a structure for developing an indicator program. The main purpose of this indicator system was to monitor the long-term effects of climate and land-use changes in Tainan City and determine the effectiveness of certain adaptation policies through indicators. These land-use indicators are suitable for exploring the risks of and adaptive capacity in response to climate events. Taken together, the findings of this study underscore the importance of using land indicators in exploring the current and future effects of climate change, adaptive action, and land use.

As climate change unfolds, extreme weather events and natural hazards relevant for the insurance industry may change in frequency and intensity. In order to guarantee risk-adequate pricing, risk modelers have to ask themselves the question whether a certain ‘hazard’ parameter based on past observations and calibrated on past data is still valid or needs to be updated. Using the example of heavy rainfall between 3 h and 72 h as a proxy for flash flooding, we apply a unique high-resolution single model initial-condition large ensemble. We outline a methodology by which risk modelers can assess whether, where and by how much updating the hazard component of their risk model is needed. Therefore, we compare two time periods: 1980–1999 (as an example for a typical baseline period) and 2015–2034 (representing a 20-year period centered around today). We argue that assessing changes over the full ensemble space is vital for (i) the identification of homogeneous regions where a certain signal emerges, and (ii) the quantification of risk changes in the tail of the extreme value distribution that may still be hidden in the mean response to climate change. In the example case of 3-hourly 50-year rainfall return levels, we find a significant increase between 1980 and 1999 and 2015–2034 over 44 % of European land area. We also identify specific risk regions such as northwestern Spain where changes in the very tail (100-year rainfall return level) already emerge before more common extremes (1-year rainfall return level). Failing to detect and consider these tail changes or assuming equal changes for common and rare extremes may therefore lead to an under- or overestimation of the true level of risk today.

Heat poses a crucial threat to human health, and infants and young children are considered as especially vulnerable. Therefore, staff in childcare facilities are responsible for taking actions to minimize health effects caused by heat. So far, however, little is known about the impacts of heat and how heat is dealt with in childcare facilities. To gain insights on this, we used a mixed-method approach including five semi-structured interviews, a survey (n = 51) and three workshops (n = 21) with staff from childcare centers and their overarching facilitating organizations in three mid-sized German cities. This study shows that the extent of heat exposure differs due to heterogeneous physical and structural pre-conditions, but heat-health impacts are still quite common among children as well as staff members. The staff report on various prevention and immediate adaptation measures that have already been or will be implemented indoors and outdoors in case of heat waves. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the warning and information situation needs improvement, and that heat issues need to be better institutionalized in the childcare sector in Germany in order to enhance heat adaptation.

Rising climate disasters underscore the overlooked impact of heat stress on health and productivity in densely populated Southeast Asia, particularly vulnerable coastal areas like India's. This study in the Indian Sundarbans employs surveys and social network analysis to explore heat stress effects, community adaptation, and support networks. Recognizing community significance, it views resilience as a blend of agency, wisdom, and networks. The research unveils rural adaptive behaviours, co-occurring stress responses, and network use for health solutions. These insights aim to enhance health advisories and crisis responses, fostering resilience in communities facing escalating climate challenges. The research covered 747 households from nine village segments, examining heat stress adaptation and social support networks. Social Network Analysis revealed internal and external sources of support for heat stress-induced health issues. The study employed matrices and network analysis tools to represent co-occurrence patterns of adaptation strategies and support networks. Findings highlighted collective adaptive behaviour and the role of social connections in combating climatic stress. The study outlines dual interventions to mitigate heat stress impacts: enhancing endogenous community adaptability and optimizing social-institutional networks for external support. Occupational profiling, socio-economic context, and health access can identify vulnerable groups. Perceived impacts can serve as early health crisis indicators, though not always linked to adaptive actions. Diverse adaptive activities co-occur, reflecting collective behaviour, but less central actions require attention. Medical care usage for heat stress remains minimal. Social networks lack local health providers needing community-level provisions. A comprehensive mitigation plan for identified vulnerable communities aims to bridge knowledge gaps, promote equitable healthcare access, and strengthen adaptive capacity through informed interventions.

Agriculture is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable activities to climate variations; climate change impacts crop yield, soil processes, water availability, and pest dynamic. Farmers are on the front lines of climate change-induced stressors, shifts, and shocks, having to provide solutions as planners, performers, and innovators working under challenging and uncertain risk conditions. Extensive research has been carried out to deepen farmers’ behavior on risks posed by climate change. However, less attention was paid to irrigation district managers, even though their essential role in guaranteeing hydraulic safety, ensuring water supply, even as on-site observers of farmers’ behavior. This paper seeks to uncover the attitudes and actions of irrigation districts managers towards climate change, and their ability to gather significant information on the climate experiences of farmers in the Lombardy region, Italy. Employing a mix of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, the exploratory approach gathered insights from the managers of the 12 public irrigation districts tasked with governing irrigation development and water management in the region. The study reveals that managers are cognizant of the shifting climate caused by warmer temperatures and extreme weather events, implementing both hard (e.g. water infrastructure maintenance, water storage) and soft (climate and weather services) adaptation countermeasures. Through their own experiences, managers brought to light the driving factors behind farmers’ willingness to adopt water-saving techniques or adapt their crops, despite facing obstacles (e.g. financial investment, institutional support). In addition, the identification of tipping points related to water scarcity and security is coupled with managers and farmers’ trust in technological solutions to partially counteract risk normalization. In line with the findings, suggestions were put forth to enhance managers’ adaptive capacity.

Migration triggered by climate variability or climate change is often a problematic yet nearly unavoidable adaptation measure, particularly due to the increasing severity of natural hazards. How relocation is negotiated, and risks are evaluated at different scales are still poorly understood. We discuss the temporality and complexity of risks, that are experienced and approached through socio-spatial differences of intersectional embodiment (Sultana, 2020). The study is based on two flood-related qualitative case studies in the small semi-arid and rapidly growing town of Lodwar in the poorest county of Kenya, Turkana. We propose the typology of fast and slow risks to understand the different strategies, negotiations, and priorities of different people involved. Due to political abstraction, three main slow risks were not addressed: concerning land, water, and income. Consequently, vulnerabilities deepened and shifted at different scales: along the axes of gender and able-bodiedness as women and particularly widows, ageing, sick, and single mothers were bearing the main hardship; but also, between communities as hazard risks were deliberately shifted onto a politically less affluent community. We argue that in the process of negotiations, people have been actively advocating for, trying to manage, and rethinking their slow risks. They have often been employing slow responses, particularly in the form of waiting and reimagining.