Climate Risk Management最新文献

The Mediterranean Sea Basin (MSB) is experiencing increasing pressure on its natural resources due to climate change (CC) and demographic growth, posing challenges to water and food sustainability. In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus, this study projects shifts in welfare and food security under various climatic conditions. Agriculture, a sector that is highly vulnerable to climate variability, depends predominantly on rainfed croplands, which constitute 70-100% of agricultural land in most MSB countries. The remaining areas are irrigated by climate-dependent water bodies such as rivers and aquifers.

A comprehensive analysis of the WEFE nexus is essential for a coherent examination of climate policy and future pathways for the economy and the natural environment. Using a dual-modeling approach, this research assesses the impacts of alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture within the MSB amidst uncertainties of CC-driven extreme events. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the GTAP framework, was used to examine inter-sectoral and inter-regional impacts. In tandem, the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on the RICE-99 framework quantifies the uncertainties related to future extreme climatic events. This synergistic approach provides a comprehensive assessment of CC impacts, integrating adaptation strategies for alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture, as well as mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy production.

The focus on cross-sectoral and multi-scale management of water, ecosystems, and food in the MSB was embedded into the economic models - CGE GTAP-AW and IAM RICE-MED, to analyze the impacts of CC adaptation and mitigation strategies on the WEFE nexus. The results indicate a reduced impact of CC on food production, and provide a comprehensive overview of potential adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce food security risks in the MSB. These findings are crucial for policymakers to promote sustainable water and agricultural practices in the face of a changing climate.

Drought is one of the most significant and complex climate risks, with profound effects on reducing agricultural production and exacerbating poverty and food insecurity worldwide in the absence of effective mitigation measures. Climate assessments indicate that drought will affect the majority of world regions in the future, with agricultural-dependent communities bearing the brunt of its impacts. Therefore, managing measures to mitigate the effects of drought is crucial in this regard. This research aims to (1) examine the adoption status of adaptation strategies and (2) identify the influential factors affecting the adoption of drought mitigation measures in Iran. The study population consisted of all rural agricultural households in Kerman Province (southeastern Iran). In order to accurately select the studied samples, calculation of drought severity was done based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this research, an extended version of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating new variables including trust, self-efficacy, social influence, facilitating conditions, perceived risk, resistance to use, and performance expectancy, was utilized as the theoretical framework. Data analysis was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results revealed that all adaptation strategies of farmers under drought conditions were categorized into five classes: Social activities (SA), Physical infrastructure management (PIM), Financial management (FIM), Farm management (FM), Irrigation and water management (IWM), and Crop management (CM). Furthermore, SEM results indicated that all hypothesized relationships in this context were significant, and the research variables explained 58% of the variance in the adoption of adaptive behaviors. Lastly, considering that trust had the most significant effect on the adoption of adaptation measures, policymakers in this field are recommended to increase farmers’ trust in these strategies by conducting thorough needs assessments and identifying the most effective strategies. Moreover, organizing appropriate workshops and training courses can enhance farmers’ awareness and understanding of adaptation measures for mitigating the impacts of drought.

Climate hazards threaten the health and wellbeing of people living in urban areas. This study characterized reported climate hazards, adaptation action, and barriers to adaptation in 124 Latin American cities, and associations of climate hazards with urban social and built environment characteristics. We examined cities that responded to a global environmental disclosure system and that were included in the Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) Project database.

The cities studied reported a median of three climate hazards. The most reported hazards were storms (61%) water scarcity (57%) extreme temperature (52%) and wildfires (51%). Thirty-eight percent of cities reported four or more distinct types of hazards. City size, density, GDP, and greenness were related to hazard reports, and although most cities reported taking actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change, 23% reported no actions at all. The most frequently reported actions were hazard mapping and modeling (47%) and increasing vegetation or greenspace coverage (45%). Other actions, such as air quality initiatives and urban planning, were much less common (8% and 3%, respectively). In terms of challenges in adapting to climate change, 35% of cities reported no challenges. The most frequently reported challenges were urban environment and development (43%) and living conditions (35%). Access to data, migration, public health, and safety/security were rarely reported as challenges. Our results suggest that climate hazards are recognized, but that adaptation responses are limited and that many important challenges to response action are not fully recognized.

This study contributes to understanding of local priorities, ongoing actions, and required support for urban climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation responses. Findings suggest the need for future research documenting local perceptions of climate hazards and comparison with documented climate hazards.

The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation is a key process that embeds adaptation in all sectors’ decision-making processes. In order to achieve successful adaptation, we need a socio-ecological transformation that is enabled by robust decision-making which prioritises adaptation. However, measuring the status of adaptation mainstreaming is quite challenging, and few studies have elucidated differences in adaptation mainstreaming among sectors; we therefore propose an assessment framework that does so. Three dimensions illustrating the pathways of adaptation mainstreaming are suggested: awareness, adaptation readiness and advanced implementation. We identify barriers, opportunities and differences among the three sectors of biodiversity conservation, forest management and water management in South Korea. Our results uncover different pathways to mainstreaming adaptation. Levels of awareness and readiness in relation to risk information, institutional arrangements and the active practical implementation of adaptation measures were found to be highest in the water management sector. In the biodiversity conservation sector, levels of active perception, preparation and implementation of adaptation measures in national sectoral policies were found to be relatively low. We also identify the most common barriers and required resources to mainstreaming adaptation and suggest priority entry points for each sector, including the abundant provision of sector-specific risk information and adoption guideline, awareness-raising on national climate change risk, improvements on organizational support, and reinforcing and the preparation of in-house monitoring and evaluation systems. Overall, this study offers insights into the measurement of adaptation mainstreaming by assessing pathways to successful adaptation. As assessing gaps and progress in adaptation is essential for the facilitation of transformational change, it is critical to examine long-term mainstreaming across diverse sectors.

The interplay of contaminated sites, climate change, and disadvantaged communities are a growing concern worldwide. Worsening extreme events may result in accidental contaminant releases from sites and waste facilities that may impact nearby communities. If such communities are already suffering from environmental, economic, health, or social burdens, they may face disproportionate impacts. Equitable resilience planning to address effects of extreme events requires information on where the impacts may be, when they may occur, and who might be impacted. Because resources are often scarce for these communities, conducting detailed modeling may be cost-prohibitive. By considering indicators for four sources of vulnerability (changing extreme heat conditions, contaminated sites, contaminant transport via wind, and population sensitivities) in one holistic framework, we provide a scientifically robust approach that can assist planners with prioritizing resources and actions. These indicators can serve as screening measures to identify communities that may be impacted most and isolate the reasons for these impacts. Through a transdisciplinary case study conducted in Maricopa County (Arizona, USA), we demonstrate how the framework and geospatial indicators can be applied to inform plans for preparedness, response, and recovery from the effects of extreme heat on contaminated sites and nearby populations. The indicators employed in this demonstration can be applied to other locations with contaminated sites to build community resilience to future climate impacts.

Factors such as human activity and climate change are contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. This problem has challenged society’s knowledge, response capacity, and resilience, revealing its inadequacy to cope with the new wildfire regime characterized by extreme wildfire events (EWE). Policies on wildfire management mainly focus on suppression and managing emergencies, which may be insufficient to reduce EWE’s incidence and cope with its impact. Consequently, there is a lack of tools to support decision-making in wildfire management in other important aspects, such as prevention and protection. This study examines global wildfire policies specifically in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain), including cross-border policies. A GIS-based tool to evaluate different normal and extreme wildfire management policies is applied to a cross-border case study, paying attention to the impact on critical land-based transport systems. A relevant outcome of the tool application is that suppression must be complemented with other wildfire management strategies in the analyzed area. The gained insights can help stakeholders to improve decision-making in wildfire management to successfully address EWE.

Uncertainties about future climate and socioeconomic conditions challenge the design and implementation of adaptation measures. Deterministic methods, although helpful in reducing uncertainty and identifying optimal solutions, may fall short to identify flexible and robust strategies under rapidly and uncertain evolving circumstances. This is where robust decision-making approaches, such as Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), can contribute. Despite its wide use in other fields, the application of EMA in climate change adaptation has been limited by the complexity of its concepts and methodologies. To address this gap, this study introduces a framework that leverages EMA to conduct a case study on flood reduction in Australia. Through EMA, the study systematically evaluates several climate scenarios and policy options across thousands of simulations to identify a set of robust strategies rather than a few optimal solutions. The results demonstrate that a multifaceted approach, which integrates infrastructure with nature-based solutions, not only reduces flood events but also contributes to sustainability. Moreover, EMA elucidates the advantages and limitations of each policy option, enhancing the decision-making process by identifying policies that are best suited to the specific context. While this study is centered on flood risk management, the principles and methodologies are broadly applicable, offering valuable insights for managing a variety of climate-related risks and informing global climate adaptation strategies.