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A multi-model fusion redundancy allocation method for subsea control systems with consideration of Bayesian stress-conditional importance 考虑贝叶斯应力条件重要性的海底控制系统多模型融合冗余分配方法
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112266
Yinhang Zhang , Baoping Cai , Chuntan Gao
Subsea control systems operating under high hydrostatic pressure and low temperatures require high reliability. Redundancy is a well-established method for improving reliability and availability and for reducing the frequency of replacements. Nevertheless, under extreme subsea conditions with multi-source uncertainties, redundancy design may induce a redundancy paradox: nonlinear growth in resource consumption can ultimately reduce overall system reliability. Therefore, an optimization framework that unifies stress condition characterization, component-importance quantification, and reliability–cost coupling is essential. To address this challenge, a multi-model fusion-based redundancy allocation method for subsea control systems under Bayesian stress-conditional importance is proposed. This methodology establishes an end-to-end redundancy allocation framework, integrating multiple models while unifying the modelling process and coupling mechanisms. A Bayesian stress-conditional importance metric is introduced as the basis for redundancy decisions, and uncertainties in the impact of component failures on system reliability are addressed. Systematically evaluates component importance, feasibility, and redundancy allocation, transforming the redundancy assignment problem into a multi-objective optimization problem. Subsequently, a multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm incorporating the Bayesian stress-conditional importance metric is employed to determine the system's optimal redundancy configuration, aiming to maximize system reliability while minimizing costs. The method is validated against benchmark results from a typical series–parallel system and a complex bridge system. A case study on a subsea light intervention equipment control system further demonstrates high reliability and accurate optimization performance. Overall, the proposed approach supports high-reliability design and contributes to safe and dependable operation of subsea control systems.
在高静水压力和低温下运行的海底控制系统需要高可靠性。冗余是提高可靠性和可用性以及减少更换频率的一种行之有效的方法。然而,在具有多源不确定性的极端海底条件下,冗余设计可能会引发冗余悖论:资源消耗的非线性增长最终会降低整个系统的可靠性。因此,一个统一应力状态表征、部件重要性量化和可靠性-成本耦合的优化框架是必不可少的。为了解决这一挑战,提出了一种基于多模型融合的海底控制系统在贝叶斯应力条件重要性下的冗余分配方法。该方法建立了端到端的冗余分配框架,在统一建模过程和耦合机制的同时集成了多个模型。引入贝叶斯应力条件重要性度量作为冗余决策的基础,并解决了部件故障对系统可靠性影响的不确定性。系统地评估部件的重要性、可行性和冗余分配,将冗余分配问题转化为多目标优化问题。随后,采用结合贝叶斯应力条件重要性度量的多目标粒子群优化算法确定系统的最优冗余配置,以实现系统可靠性最大化和成本最小化。通过典型串并联系统和复杂桥梁系统的基准结果验证了该方法的有效性。海底轻干预设备控制系统的案例研究进一步证明了其高可靠性和精确的优化性能。总的来说,所提出的方法支持高可靠性设计,有助于海底控制系统的安全可靠运行。
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引用次数: 0
Coordinative optimization strategy for group track maintenance planning and train scheduling of railways 铁路成组养护计划与列车调度的协调优化策略
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112272
Shanshan Yan, Dongming Fan, Bo Li, Ziguang Ji, Yue Zhang, Yi Ren
Tracks are essential for ensuring the safety and reliability of railway transportation services. Due to the high-density operation of trains and exposure to open-air environmental conditions, components within the track system are susceptible to failure resulting from aging. The issue is typically addressed through concentrated preventive maintenance. However, the maintenance planning overlooks the influence of structural dependencies among track components and must be coordinated with the train timetable to be completed on time without affecting train operations. Therefore, this study proposes a coordinative optimization strategy for group track preventive maintenance planning and train scheduling considering structural dependencies. Track maintenance projects and activities are analyzed to illustrate the grouping conditions that consider structural dependencies, and a mixed-integer linear programming model is established to formulate this problem. Numerical experiments on multiple scales are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the proposed approach. The impacts of maintenance capacity, group requirements, and the interval between trains traveling in the same direction on the model are also discussed. For the Guiyang-Kunming railway line, an actual case study demonstrated that the collaborative strategy enables a total cost reduction of 31.68%. Additionally, several recommendations are proposed for managers.
轨道是确保铁路运输服务安全可靠的关键。由于列车的高密度运行和暴露在露天环境条件下,轨道系统内的部件容易因老化而失效。这个问题通常通过集中的预防性维护来解决。然而,维修计划忽略了轨道部件之间结构依赖关系的影响,必须与列车时刻表相协调,才能在不影响列车运行的情况下按时完成。为此,本研究提出了考虑结构依赖性的成组轨道预防性维修计划与列车调度协调优化策略。通过对轨道维护项目和活动的分析,说明了考虑结构依赖的分组条件,并建立了混合整数线性规划模型来表述这一问题。通过多尺度的数值实验验证了该方法的灵敏度。讨论了维修能力、群组需求、同向列车间隔等因素对模型的影响。以贵昆铁路为例,通过实际案例研究表明,协同战略使总成本降低了31.68%。此外,还为管理人员提出了一些建议。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty-aware sensorless anomaly detection using a reliable indicator from position-guided multi-step deep decomposition network 基于位置引导多步深度分解网络的可靠指标的不确定性感知无传感器异常检测
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112258
Junyu Qi , Hamid Reza Karimi , Yannick Uhlmann , Zhuyun Chen , Weihua Li , Gernot Schullerus
Condition monitoring (CM) and predictive maintenance (PdM) are essential for ensuring reliability and efficiency in intelligent manufacturing. While bearings and gears have been extensively studied, roller chains have received limited attention, primarily due to the difficulty of installing contact accelerometers on moving chains and the high cost of deploying sensors across long spans. Consequently, effective CM techniques for roller chains remain an open challenge. This study introduces a sensorless CM framework that relies solely on motor driver signals, eliminating the need for additional physical sensors. Motor torque and position data are acquired and processed using a Position-guided Multi-Step Deep Decomposition Network (PMSDDN), a lightweight neural architecture designed to construct a reliable health indicator (HI). PMSDDN segments the torque signal based on the motor position, decomposes each segment into low- and high-frequency components, and predicts them independently through efficient linear modules. This decomposition reduces noise and fluctuations, producing a smooth degradation trend that enhances interpretability. Compared with traditional HIs and state-of-the-art deep learning models, PMSDDN delivers higher effectiveness and computational efficiency. For anomaly detection, a Weighted K-Nearest Neighbors (WKNN) method is developed, combining three different statistical measures with uncertainty quantification to improve robustness and sensitivity to early degradation. The framework is validated on nine roller chains under three operating conditions. Results confirm superior performance in both health assessment and anomaly detection, highlighting its potential as a practical and scalable CM solution for roller chain systems in modern manufacturing environments.
状态监测(CM)和预测性维护(PdM)对于确保智能制造的可靠性和效率至关重要。虽然轴承和齿轮已经得到了广泛的研究,但滚子链却受到了有限的关注,这主要是由于在移动链上安装接触式加速度计的困难以及在大跨度上部署传感器的高成本。因此,有效的CM技术的滚子链仍然是一个开放的挑战。本研究介绍了一种无传感器CM框架,该框架仅依赖于电机驱动信号,无需额外的物理传感器。电机扭矩和位置数据的获取和处理使用位置导向的多步深度分解网络(PMSDDN),这是一种轻量级的神经结构,旨在构建可靠的健康指标(HI)。PMSDDN根据电机位置对转矩信号进行分段,将每段转矩信号分解为低频和高频分量,并通过高效的线性模块进行独立预测。这种分解减少了噪声和波动,产生了平滑的退化趋势,增强了可解释性。与传统的HIs和最先进的深度学习模型相比,PMSDDN具有更高的有效性和计算效率。在异常检测方面,提出了加权k近邻(Weighted K-Nearest Neighbors, WKNN)方法,将三种不同的统计度量与不确定性量化相结合,提高了鲁棒性和对早期退化的灵敏度。该框架在三种工况下对九个滚子链进行了验证。结果证实了其在健康评估和异常检测方面的卓越性能,突出了其作为现代制造环境中滚子链系统的实用和可扩展的CM解决方案的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated framework for functional model-based safety assessment of process systems using Cloud-Bayesian network 基于云-贝叶斯网络功能模型的过程系统安全评估集成框架
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112231
Ruixue Li, Jing Wu, Ole Ravn, Xinxin Zhang
The increasing complexity of modern industrial systems makes it challenging to fully consider the complex interactions between components while also representing dynamic system behaviors. This poses challenges for traditional risk assessment methods, which are often labor-intensive and time-consuming. Model-Based Safety Assessment (MBSA) emerges as a promising solution, offering concrete knowledge representation and consistent reasoning. MBSA not only processes large system data volumes and manages complexity through structured modeling but also automates the error-prone manual safety analysis process, enhancing efficiency and reliability.
Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM), a model-based method belonging to symbolic AI with cognitive capabilities, provides a functional modeling framework to represent complex industrial processes. It captures mass, energy, and control information, enabling effective reasoning about failure propagation and system behavior. To quantify the qualitative reasoning conducted by MFM-based hazard analysis, Bayesian Network (BN) is introduced to enable a more comprehensive utilization of MFM for safety assessments. In cases of insufficient failure scenario data, subjective information with uncertainties from experts remains valuable. The improved Cloud model is proposed to process expert judgments, addressing cognitive fuzziness and stochasticity issues.
This paper proposes a model-based safety assessment framework that enhances the MFM-based hazard analysis by probabilistic risk reasoning using Cloud-Bayesian Network. This framework facilitates critical hazard and failure propagation analysis while also enabling scenario verification through downstream effect analysis caused by varying degrees of deviation. The framework is demonstrated in the Minox system of an offshore oil & gas platform, providing critical insights for designing effective countermeasures and aiding decision-makers in enhancing risk management.
现代工业系统日益复杂,既要充分考虑组件之间复杂的相互作用,又要表现系统的动态行为,这是一个挑战。这对传统的风险评估方法提出了挑战,传统的风险评估方法通常是劳动密集型和耗时的。基于模型的安全评估(MBSA)作为一种有前景的解决方案,提供了具体的知识表示和一致的推理。MBSA不仅可以处理大量系统数据,通过结构化建模管理复杂性,还可以自动化容易出错的人工安全分析过程,从而提高效率和可靠性。多级流建模(Multilevel Flow modeling, MFM)是一种基于模型的具有认知能力的符号人工智能方法,为复杂工业过程的表征提供了一种功能性的建模框架。它捕获质量、能量和控制信息,支持对故障传播和系统行为进行有效推理。为了量化基于MFM的危害分析所进行的定性推理,引入贝叶斯网络(BN),从而更全面地利用MFM进行安全评估。在故障场景数据不足的情况下,来自专家的不确定的主观信息仍然是有价值的。提出了改进的Cloud模型来处理专家判断,解决了认知模糊性和随机性问题。本文提出了一种基于模型的安全评估框架,利用云-贝叶斯网络的概率风险推理增强了基于mfm的危害分析。该框架有助于关键危险和故障传播分析,同时还可以通过不同程度偏差引起的下游影响分析进行场景验证。该框架在海上油气平台的Minox系统中得到了验证,为设计有效的对策和帮助决策者加强风险管理提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Detection framework for bidirectional false data injection attacks to enhance reliability in cyber-physical power systems 双向假数据注入攻击检测框架,提高网络物理电力系统可靠性
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112267
Bo Zhang , Min Du , Haofeng Zheng , Kaiyang Liu , Baochun Lu
With the rapid development of cyber attack techniques, cyber-physical power systems (CPPSs) are facing the threat of more customized and stealthier cyber attacks. Among them, bidirectional false data injection attacks (BFDIAs) have become one of the most destructive types of attacks. However, existing research on false data injection attacks (FDIAs) mostly focuses on the detection of unidirectional FDIAs, and the existing methods have limited effectiveness in detecting highly stealthy BFDIAs. In light of this, the paper proposes a detection method for BFDIAs in CPPSs based on a multi-level detection model. Firstly, an optimization-based convolutional neural network is employed to perform shallow application-layer BFDIAs detection and filter out abnormal messages in the IEC60870–104 protocol (IEC 104) data. Subsequently, the filtered IEC104 dataset is fed into a covariance matrix model to detect conventional BFDIAs in the deep application layer, and the detection results are integrated into the original alarm dataset in the form of alerts. Furthermore, the set of alarm events is input into a bidirectional hidden Markov model to detect highly stealthy BFDIAs in the deep application layer. The proposed multi-level detection framework leverages a three-stage mechanism—MFOCNN–based shallow application-layer detection, covariance-based deep-layer detection, and bidirectional hidden Markov modeling—to integrate synergistically optimized learning with temporal correlation analysis and thereby enhance the detection performance against highly stealthy bidirectional FDIAs. Finally, the proposed method is validated for BFDIAs detection in a real-world 126-nodes power system, demonstrating its accuracy and practicality.
随着网络攻击技术的快速发展,网络物理电力系统面临着更加个性化和隐蔽的网络攻击威胁。其中,双向虚假数据注入攻击(BFDIAs)已成为最具破坏性的攻击类型之一。然而,现有的虚假数据注入攻击的研究主要集中在对单向虚假数据注入攻击的检测上,现有方法在检测高隐身性虚假数据注入攻击方面的有效性有限。鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于多级检测模型的CPPSs中BFDIAs的检测方法。首先,采用基于优化的卷积神经网络对IEC60870-104协议(IEC60870-104)数据进行浅层BFDIAs检测,过滤掉异常信息;随后,将过滤后的IEC104数据集馈送到协方差矩阵模型中,对深层应用层的常规bfdia进行检测,并将检测结果以告警的形式集成到原始报警数据集中。此外,将报警事件集输入到双向隐马尔可夫模型中,以检测深度应用层的高隐身bfdia。所提出的多层次检测框架利用三阶段机制——基于mfocnn的浅层应用层检测、基于协方差的深层检测和双向隐马尔可夫建模——将协同优化学习与时间相关分析相结合,从而提高对高度隐身的双向ffdi的检测性能。最后,将该方法应用于126节点电力系统的BFDIAs检测,验证了该方法的准确性和实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Causal analysis of ship inspection data and maritime accidents through causal neural networks 基于因果神经网络的船舶检验数据与海上事故的因果分析
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112255
Run Liu , Mingyang Zhang , Ran Yan , Zaili Yang
Maritime transportation serves as the backbone of international trade, yet its growth is accompanied by an increasing number of maritime accidents. Therefore, reducing maritime accidents and mitigating their impact are crucial to supporting sustainable maritime industry development. Port state control (PSC) inspection is a key regulatory tool for enhancing maritime safety by inspecting foreign visiting ships to port. However, the actual impact of PSC inspection on reducing maritime accidents and how it can be further optimised remains unclear. This study employs a causal generative neural network model to explore the causal relationship among ship particulars, historical PSC inspection results, and future maritime accidents through a directed acyclic graph (DAG). By integrating causal discovery and causal inference, this study provides a robust framework for modelling maritime accident causation and overcomes limitations of traditional methods that often rely on discretisation or linear assumptions. Based on the identified optimal causal DAG, this study conducts decile-level causal intervention analyses on key contributing variables to quantify their effects on both the occurrence and severity of various types of maritime accidents. The results indicate that the optimal maximum PSC inspection interval is 409–509 days, which is consistent with the existing longest inspection time window (10–18 months) in the Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding. The probability and severity of maritime accidents exhibit a U-shaped relationship with the mean inspection interval, and the lowest risk occurs at 170–210 days. Additionally, the life-saving equipment conditions should be paid more attention in the PSC inspection. Due to the quantitative analysis nature, the new method will be able to help analyse the quantity of the increased or decreased risks against different types of maritime accidents, supporting a comprehensive perspective for safety management and accident prevention strategies.
海上运输是国际贸易的支柱,但其发展的同时也伴随着日益增多的海上事故。因此,减少海上事故并减轻其影响对于支持海运业的可持续发展至关重要。港口国监督检查(PSC)是一项重要的监管工具,通过检查到港的外国访问船舶来加强海上安全。然而,PSC检查对减少海上事故的实际影响以及如何进一步优化仍不清楚。本研究采用因果生成神经网络模型,通过有向无环图(DAG)探讨船舶细节、历史PSC检验结果与未来海上事故之间的因果关系。通过整合因果发现和因果推理,本研究为海事事故因果关系建模提供了一个强大的框架,并克服了通常依赖于离散化或线性假设的传统方法的局限性。基于确定的最优因果DAG,本研究对关键贡献变量进行十分位水平的因果干预分析,量化其对各类海上事故发生和严重程度的影响。结果表明,PSC的最佳最大检查间隔为409 ~ 509天,与《东京谅解备忘录》现有的最长检查时间窗口(10 ~ 18个月)一致。海上事故发生概率和严重程度与平均检查间隔呈u型关系,最低风险发生在170-210天。此外,在PSC检查中,救生设备的状况也应受到重视。由于定量分析的性质,新方法将能够帮助分析针对不同类型海上事故增加或减少的风险数量,从而为安全管理和事故预防策略提供全面的视角。
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引用次数: 0
From physics to machine learning and back: Part I - Learning with inductive biases in prognostics and health management (PHM) 从物理到机器学习再到机器学习:第一部分-预测和健康管理(PHM)中的归纳偏差学习
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112213
Olga Fink, Vinay Sharma , Ismail Nejjar , Leandro Von Krannichfeldt, Sergei Garmaev, Zepeng Zhang, Amaury Wei, Gaetan Frusque, Florent Forest, Mengjie Zhao, Chi-Ching Hsu, Keivan Faghih Niresi, Han Sun, Hao Dong, Chenghao Xu, Raffael Theiler, Arthur Bizzi, Kevin Steiner
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is essential for ensuring the safe, reliable, and efficient operation of complex engineered systems by integrating fault detection, diagnostics, and prognostics into a unified framework. While machine learning (ML) has significantly advanced PHM by enabling data-driven decision-making, real-world challenges such as sparse or noisy data, limited labels, and complex degradation dynamics require approaches that go beyond purely data-driven modeling. This review focuses on inductive bias – the integration of prior knowledge, physical laws, and structural assumptions into ML model design – as a foundational mechanism to improve generalization, robustness, and interpretability in PHM. We explore the current state of the art in applying inductive bias to PHM, reviewing a wide range of methods including graph neural networks (relational biases), state-space models and neural ordinary differential equations (temporal biases), signal processing-inspired learning (spectral biases), neural operators (operator biases), causal representation learning (causal biases), and interpretable-by-design models (interpretability biases) through the use of inductive bias. For each method, we discuss its advantages, limitations, and suitability for different PHM tasks, and identify emerging applications where these techniques show strong potential. Furthermore, we examine how ML contributes back to physics understanding through symbolic regression (rediscovering physical laws) and post-hoc interpretation (transparent decision-making), closing the loop between physics understanding and modeling in PHM. By embedding domain knowledge into learning architectures, these approaches help constrain the hypothesis space and promote physically consistent learning, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and real-world deployment in safety-critical applications. Part II of this review explores observational and learning biases, focusing on how data augmentation, representation, and training strategies shape model behavior and further enhance alignment between machine learning and the physical systems it aims to monitor and manage.
通过将故障检测、诊断和预测集成到一个统一的框架中,预测和健康管理(PHM)对于确保复杂工程系统的安全、可靠和高效运行至关重要。虽然机器学习(ML)通过实现数据驱动的决策,极大地推动了PHM的发展,但现实世界的挑战,如稀疏或有噪声的数据、有限的标签和复杂的退化动态,需要超越纯粹数据驱动建模的方法。这篇综述的重点是归纳偏差——将先验知识、物理定律和结构假设整合到ML模型设计中——作为提高PHM泛化、鲁棒性和可解释性的基本机制。我们探索了将归纳偏差应用于PHM的最新技术,回顾了广泛的方法,包括图神经网络(关系偏差),状态空间模型和神经常微分方程(时间偏差),信号处理启发学习(频谱偏差),神经算子(算子偏差),因果表示学习(因果偏差),以及通过使用归纳偏差设计可解释模型(可解释性偏差)。对于每种方法,我们讨论了其优点、局限性以及对不同PHM任务的适用性,并确定了这些技术显示出强大潜力的新兴应用。此外,我们研究了机器学习如何通过符号回归(重新发现物理定律)和事后解释(透明决策)为物理理解做出贡献,从而关闭物理理解和PHM建模之间的循环。通过将领域知识嵌入到学习架构中,这些方法有助于限制假设空间并促进物理一致的学习,弥合了安全关键应用中理论建模和实际部署之间的差距。本综述的第二部分探讨了观察和学习偏差,重点关注数据增强、表示和训练策略如何塑造模型行为,并进一步增强机器学习与其旨在监控和管理的物理系统之间的一致性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of heterogeneous behaviors of subarea managers on the recovery of urban water distribution systems after disaster 分区管理者异质性行为对灾后城市配水系统恢复的影响
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112262
Shu Chen , Yuxin Liu , Zhijie Liu , Yuwei Liu , Nan Li , Fei Wang
Urban Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) are critical for societal functioning. Disasters often cause widespread damage, segmenting the network into isolated subsystems. Due to communication breakdowns, subarea managers must make recovery decisions based on limited information and their own experience, leading to heterogeneity in management behaviors. Although existing studies typically assume a unified decision-making model, they have overlooked the decision-making characteristics of subarea management and its impact on the post-disaster recovery process of the WDSs. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated framework that combines hydraulic simulation with subarea decision-making behavior to uncover the impact of heterogeneous behaviors of subarea managers on the recovery of urban WDSs after disaster. Firstly, a seismic scenario is simulated to determine the damage state of nodes and pipelines within the system, defining the initial recovery scenario post-disaster. Secondly, based on different decision preferences and objectives, five typical recovery strategies are proposed. Furthermore, this study develops a model for hydraulic simulation and decision-making processes. Finally, this study quantifies managerial behavioral heterogeneity using restoration time and system functionality. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, it is first applied to a baseline-scale network. The results demonstrate that different strategies lead to significant variations in recovery efficiency, while the number of partitions nonlinearly influences restoration outcomes, with the 2-subarea configuration consistently achieving optimal performance across all tested scenarios. This study is further validated through multiple extended cases of varying scales, with consistent results across different system sizes. These findings reveal the significant impact of subarea managers' heterogeneous behaviors on the recovery process of WDSs after disaster. The conclusions provide theoretical support for post-disaster recovery strategies, offering guidance for future subarea management optimization and practical emergency decision-making.
城市配水系统(WDSs)对社会运作至关重要。灾难通常会造成广泛的破坏,将网络分割成孤立的子系统。由于沟通不畅,子区域管理者必须根据有限的信息和自身经验做出恢复性决策,导致管理行为的异质性。虽然现有研究通常假设统一的决策模型,但忽视了分区域管理的决策特征及其对灾后恢复过程的影响。为了解决这一差距,本研究提出了一个将水力模拟与分区决策行为相结合的综合框架,以揭示分区管理者的异质性行为对灾后城市wds恢复的影响。首先,模拟地震场景,确定系统内节点和管道的破坏状态,定义灾后初始恢复场景。其次,基于不同的决策偏好和目标,提出了五种典型的恢复策略。此外,本研究还开发了一个用于水力仿真和决策过程的模型。最后,本研究使用恢复时间和系统功能量化管理行为异质性。为了验证所提出的框架的有效性,首先将其应用于基线尺度网络。结果表明,不同的策略导致恢复效率的显著差异,而分区的数量非线性地影响恢复结果,2子区域配置在所有测试场景中始终达到最佳性能。通过不同规模的多个扩展案例进一步验证了该研究,不同系统规模的结果一致。这些发现揭示了分区管理者的异质性行为对灾后wds恢复过程的显著影响。研究结论为制定灾后恢复策略提供理论支持,为今后分区管理优化和实际应急决策提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Two-stage rolling optimization resilience enhancement strategy for Multi-Microgrid under extreme weather conditions 极端天气条件下多微电网两阶段滚动优化弹性增强策略
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112259
Changyun Li, Rongyu Zhang, Hangyu Lin
In response to the significant reduction in wind power and photovoltaic output, along with large-scale power outages caused by extreme weather conditions such as strong winds, rainstorms, and blizzards, a two-step rolling resilience improvement strategy for multi-microgrid (MMG) systems is proposed. First, the paper analyzes existing microgrid (MG) resilience metrics and introduces an MMG resilience metric that considers load shedding and an emergent resilience improvement rate, characterizing the resilience enhancement of each sub-microgrid (SMG). A distributed energy management model for SMGs and an energy management model for MMG under normal weather conditions are then established. Through internal coordination within the MMG, power exchange is implemented to minimize system operating costs. Secondly, a two-stage rolling resilience enhancement strategy for MMG is proposed, ensuring optimal system operating costs with minimal load shedding. Finally, to address the inequitable distribution of benefits among SMGs participating in the joint operation of MMG, the Banzhaf value method is used for fair distribution of synergistic economic benefits. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy in enhancing the resilience of both the overall MMG system and each SMG is verified through a case study.
针对风力发电和光伏发电显著减少以及强风、暴雨、暴风雪等极端天气条件造成的大规模停电,提出了多微电网(MMG)系统两步滚动弹性改善策略。首先,分析了现有的微电网弹性指标,引入了考虑减载和紧急弹性改善率的微电网弹性指标,表征了各亚微电网的弹性增强情况。在此基础上,建立了smg和MMG在正常天气条件下的分布式能量管理模型。通过MMG内部的协调,实现了电力交换,以最大限度地降低系统运行成本。其次,提出了一种两阶段滚动弹性增强策略,以保证系统运行成本最优和负荷损失最小。最后,针对参与MMG联合经营的smg之间利益分配不公平的问题,采用Banzhaf值法对协同经济利益进行公平分配。通过案例研究验证了所建议的策略在提高整个MMG系统和每个SMG的弹性方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Policy modeling for urban energy resilience to extreme heat: A multi-agent simulation framework in Chongqing, China 城市能源弹性应对极端高温的政策建模:重庆多智能体模拟框架
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112260
Yueting Ding , Feng Chen , Mariia Plotnikova , Bo Wang
Climate change is increasing extreme heat events, intensifying stress on urban energy systems. Chongqing, a megacity in China, has seen a notable rise in urban heat island intensity (∼0.5 °C per decade), driving peak cooling loads up by 15 %. While previous research emphasized energy efficiency, resilience under compounded extreme heat remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we develop an agent-based model with four agent types exhibiting adaptive thermal behavior, simulating building energy demand under four high-temperature scenarios (36∼42 °C) with non-linear responses. A multi-indicator framework is employed to evaluate three strategies: adjusting temperature thresholds, establishing public cooling centers (PCCs), and electricity rationing. Results indicate: 1) Proportional electricity rationing is more cost-effective and better mitigates oversupply risks than uniform restrictions. 2) Increasing temperature thresholds from 26 °C to 28 °C improves resilience (relative closeness: 56 %) with only marginal cost increases, although economic burdens remain notable. Expanding PCCs provides negligible resilience benefits (<0.1 % improvement). 3) A TOPSIS-based cost-resilience trade-off analysis further confirms that temperature threshold adjustment consistently offers superior performance in balancing resilience outcomes and economic feasibility. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating economic and practical feasibility into urban energy resilience strategies.
气候变化增加了极端高温事件,加剧了城市能源系统的压力。中国特大城市重庆的城市热岛强度显著上升(每十年约0.5°C),导致峰值制冷负荷上升15%。虽然之前的研究强调能源效率,但复合极端高温下的弹性仍未得到充分探索。为了填补这一空白,我们开发了一个基于agent的模型,其中包含四种具有自适应热行为的agent类型,模拟四种高温情景(36 ~ 42°C)下具有非线性响应的建筑能源需求。采用多指标框架评估三种策略:调整温度阈值、建立公共冷却中心(PCCs)和电力配给。结果表明:1)比例限电比统一限电更具成本效益,能更好地缓解供过于求的风险。2)将温度阈值从26°C提高到28°C可提高弹性(相对接近度:56%),仅增加边际成本,但经济负担仍然显著。扩展PCCs提供可忽略不计的弹性效益(提高0.1%)。3)基于topsis的成本-弹性权衡分析进一步证实了温度阈值调整在平衡弹性结果和经济可行性方面始终具有更优的表现。我们的研究结果强调了将经济和实际可行性纳入城市能源弹性战略的重要性。
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Reliability Engineering & System Safety
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