Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献_第4页

Anomaly detection via Gaussian-adaptive reset observer: An entropy approach for predictive maintenance 基于高斯自适应复位观测器的异常检测：一种预测性维护的熵方法

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112182

Shigen Gao, Simin Zeng, Tao Wen, Hongwei Wang

Intelligent operation and maintenance are increasingly recognized as critical for the advancement and reliability of modern complex systems. Among various strategies, predictive maintenance offers an alternative yet effective way to prevent potential cascading failures and mitigate severe unexpected breakdown. Nevertheless, the presence of uncertain parameters and external disturbances in considered system imposes considerable theoretical challenges on the development of feasible and reliable predictive maintenance frameworks. This paper addresses the problem of predictive maintenance in the presence of uncertainty and disturbances by proposing two key contributions. A Gaussian-adaptive reset observer is developed, incorporating Gaussian kernels into the pioneering reset observer framework to achieve rapid parameter identification convergence under possible weak excitation while preserving the original reset structure and enhancing transient performance. Additionally, an entropy-based anomaly detection framework is introduced, featuring transient and steady-state time constants, a sliding window entropy strategy, and precision-regulating parameters to ensure fast, accurate, and robust anomaly detection without requiring complete system knowledge, and actually, it is not possible to obtain complete system knowledge due to the involvement of uncertain parameters and disturbances. The proposed methods offer practical applicability for predictive maintenance in uncertain dynamic environments. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed strategy are validated through a simulation example.

智能操作和维护越来越被认为是现代复杂系统的先进性和可靠性的关键。在各种策略中，预测性维护提供了另一种有效的方法来防止潜在的级联故障并减轻严重的意外故障。然而，考虑系统中不确定参数和外部干扰的存在，对开发可行和可靠的预测性维护框架提出了相当大的理论挑战。本文通过提出两个关键贡献来解决存在不确定性和干扰的预测性维护问题。提出了一种高斯自适应复位观测器，将高斯核融合到原有的复位观测器框架中，在保持原有复位结构的同时，实现了在可能存在的弱激励下参数辨识的快速收敛。此外，引入了一种基于熵的异常检测框架，该框架采用瞬态和稳态时间常数、滑动窗口熵策略和精度调节参数来确保快速、准确和鲁棒的异常检测，而不需要完整的系统知识，实际上，由于不确定参数和干扰的参与，无法获得完整的系统知识。提出的方法对不确定动态环境下的预测性维修具有实际的适用性。通过仿真算例验证了该策略的有效性和优越性。

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引用次数: 0

Optimal reassignment policy for a balanced system with multi-state subsystems supported by protective devices in a shock environment 冲击环境下多状态子系统保护平衡系统的最优再分配策略

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112185

Xiaoyue Wang , Jingxuan Wang , Xian Zhao , Siqi Wang , Linlin Wang

Reassignment policies have been explored extensively due to their effectiveness in improving the reliability of systems with functionally interchangeable components. Additionally, the reliability of balanced systems with protective devices (PDs) has aroused research interests. To cope with the balanced requirement of the balanced systems with PDs, it is essential to apply the reallocation policy to extend the system lifetime. Nevertheless, no literature investigates the reallocation policy for balanced systems with PDs. Consequently, this paper investigates the optimal reassignment policy for a balanced system containing multiple subsystems with PDs. The system balance is characterized as the appropriate difference between the maximum and minimum state of subsystems. A new shock model is constructed to model the degradation of the proposed system, where the magnitude and duration of shocks are integrated to classify the shocks. The PD is activated to enhance the shock resistance of the corresponding subsystem once it degrades to a threshold. The finite Markov chain imbedding approach is utilized to derive the reliability indexes of the system. The optimal reassignment strategy and time can be derived via solving the optimization model with the objective of maximizing the system reliability. Finally, a practical example is presented to verify the proposed model.

由于重新分配策略在提高具有功能可互换组件的系统的可靠性方面的有效性，因此对其进行了广泛的探索。此外，带保护装置的平衡系统的可靠性也引起了人们的研究兴趣。为了满足具有pd的均衡系统的均衡需求，必须应用重新分配策略来延长系统的生命周期。然而，没有文献研究具有pd的平衡系统的再分配策略。因此，本文研究了一个包含多个子系统的平衡系统的最优再分配策略。系统平衡的特征是子系统最大状态和最小状态之间的适当差值。建立了一个新的冲击模型来模拟系统的退化，其中冲击的大小和持续时间被整合到冲击分类中。一旦PD降级到一个阈值，PD就会被激活，以增强相应子系统的抗冲击能力。利用有限马尔可夫链嵌入法推导了系统的可靠性指标。通过求解以系统可靠性最大化为目标的优化模型，得到最优的再分配策略和时间。最后，给出了一个实例来验证所提出的模型。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of voyage segments on maritime accidents: An analysis of navigational factors and accident causes 航段对海上事故的影响：航行因素与事故原因分析

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112188

Yiheng Wu , Huanhuan Li , Hang Jiao , Zhong Shuo Chen , Alan J. Murphy , Zaili Yang

Maritime transportation, a cornerstone of global trade, faces significant risks from maritime accidents, which can result in severe human casualties, substantial property loss, and extensive environmental damage. This study aims to improve the understanding of how different voyage segments, coastal waters, open seas, and restricted waters, influence maritime accidents by systematically analysing navigational characteristics and Risk Influential Factors (RIFs) across segments. The study employs a Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) model to quantify the probabilistic influence of RIFs on accident occurrence, enabling the explicit modelling of interdependencies that traditional approaches fail to capture. Scenario analysis is further conducted to assess segment-specific accident patterns and to identify how operational, environmental, and human-centred factors vary across navigational contexts. The results reveal both shared and segment-unique root causes, as well as high-risk transition zones where accident likelihood changes markedly between segments. By integrating voyage-segment analysis with a TAN structure, this paper advances maritime accident modelling beyond prior applications and provides actionable insights for risk-informed decision-making. The findings support the optimisation of route planning, the design of segment-specific and transition-focused safety measures, and the development of more effective maritime safety management strategies across diverse operational environments.

海上运输作为全球贸易的基石，面临着海上事故的重大风险，可能造成严重的人员伤亡、重大财产损失和广泛的环境破坏。本研究旨在通过系统分析不同航段、沿海水域、公海和限制水域的航行特征和风险影响因素（RIFs），提高对海上事故影响的认识。该研究采用树增强Naïve贝叶斯（TAN）模型来量化RIFs对事故发生的概率影响，从而能够对传统方法无法捕获的相互依赖性进行明确建模。进一步进行情景分析，以评估特定路段的事故模式，并确定操作、环境和人为因素在不同的导航环境中是如何变化的。结果揭示了共同的和路段特有的根本原因，以及事故发生可能性在路段之间发生显著变化的高风险过渡区。通过将航段分析与TAN结构相结合，本文超越了以前的应用，推进了海上事故建模，并为风险知情决策提供了可操作的见解。研究结果支持优化航线规划，设计特定路段和以过渡为重点的安全措施，以及在不同运营环境中制定更有效的海上安全管理策略。

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引用次数: 0

A multi-model ensemble and its portability for the prognostics of direct methanol fuel cells under different dynamic operating conditions 不同动态工况下直接甲醇燃料电池预测的多模型集成及其可移植性

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112179

Dacheng Zhang , Jie Dong , Wei Wang , Christophe Bérenguer , Zhengang Zhao

Accurate estimation of State Of Health (SOH) and prediction of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) are all-important to ensure the fuel cells’ reliable operation. During the ageing of Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFCs), the output voltage can be monitored in real-time to acquire the degradation trend. However, traditional prognostic methods relying solely on observed voltage trend regression cannot cope with dynamic changes in operation. The deep-level degradation information, which is merely affected by environmental factors, can be accessed by the Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) measurements. Using the Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM), degradation covariates such as internal impedances can be identified and tracked over time. This paper proposes an approach that combines internal characterization and direct observation to predict the RUL of DMFCs under dynamic operating conditions. The proposed approach is implemented on two DMFCs of the same type prepared for accelerated ageing tests under different scenarios: one DMFC following the China Light Vehicle Test Cycle (CLTC) for training, and the other following the World Light Vehicle Test Cycle (WLTC) to verify the method’s portability. Compared to the traditional data-driven prediction method, experimental results show that the proposed multi-level degradation indicator-based approach can provide more accurate SOH estimation and RUL predictions.

准确估计燃料电池的健康状态（SOH）和预测剩余使用寿命（RUL）对于保证燃料电池的可靠运行至关重要。在直接甲醇燃料电池（dmfc）老化过程中，可以实时监测输出电压，获取老化趋势。然而，传统的预测方法仅依靠观测电压趋势回归，无法应对运行中的动态变化。电化学阻抗谱（EIS）测量可以获取仅受环境因素影响的深层降解信息。使用等效电路模型（ECM），可以识别和跟踪内部阻抗等退化协变量。本文提出了一种结合内部表征和直接观察的方法来预测dmfc在动态工况下的RUL。所提出的方法在两个相同类型的DMFC上实施，这些DMFC准备在不同场景下进行加速老化试验：一个DMFC遵循中国轻型车辆测试周期（CLTC）进行训练，另一个DMFC遵循世界轻型车辆测试周期（WLTC）以验证该方法的可移植性。实验结果表明，与传统的数据驱动预测方法相比，基于多级退化指标的方法可以提供更准确的SOH估计和RUL预测。

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引用次数: 0

A reliability-oriented model for optimal deployment of corrective maintenance crews in power distribution systems: A stochastic dynamic planning using benders decomposition 配电系统纠偏维修人员优化配置的可靠性导向模型：基于弯曲体分解的随机动态规划

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112186

Seyede Ome Kolsoom Hosseini , Mohammad Rastegar , Mehrdad Ebrahimi

Corrective maintenance is performed after a failure in power distribution systems to restore service as quickly as possible. Although increasing the number of maintenance crews and depots improves reliability, it leads to significant investment costs. This paper proposes a dynamic planning model for the optimal deployment of maintenance crews in power distribution systems to minimize operational and investment costs along with interruption costs. The planning problem is computationally complex due to nonlinearity, a large solution space, and uncertainties related to service requirements. To tackle the issue of intractability in real-world systems, this paper proposes applying the Benders Decomposition approach to decompose the problem into a master problem and a sub-problem, both formulated in the mixed-integer linear programming format. The master problem determines the number and locations of depots to minimize depot-related costs and outage durations caused by crew travel time. The sub-problem optimizes the number of maintenance teams assigned to each depot to minimize delays due to maintenance crew unavailability. To demonstrate the applicability of this model, it is implemented on a real large-scale power distribution system. Simulation results show that the total system cost in the optimized case can be reduced by 29.25% compared to the current non-optimal state.

纠错维护是指在配电系统出现故障后，为了尽快恢复供电而进行的维护。虽然增加维修人员和维修站的数量可以提高可靠性，但这会导致巨大的投资成本。本文提出了配电系统维护人员优化配置的动态规划模型，以使运行成本、投资成本和中断成本最小化。规划问题由于非线性、求解空间大以及与业务需求相关的不确定性而计算复杂。为了解决现实系统中的难解性问题，本文提出应用Benders分解方法将问题分解为一个主问题和一个子问题，这两个问题都以混合整数线性规划格式表示。主问题决定了仓库的数量和位置，以最大限度地减少与仓库相关的成本和由船员旅行时间引起的停机时间。子问题优化分配到每个仓库的维修小组的数量，以尽量减少由于维修人员不可用而造成的延误。为了验证该模型的适用性，在实际大型配电系统中进行了仿真。仿真结果表明，与当前非最优状态相比，优化后的系统总成本可降低29.25%。

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引用次数: 0

A coupled failure mode and effects analysis method for hardware-software failure interactions in embedded systems of intelligent equipment 智能装备嵌入式系统软硬件故障交互耦合失效模式及影响分析方法

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112184

Peng Huang , Chaowei Tang , Yu Sun , Haichuan Zhao

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an effective risk prevention and control method that has been widely applied across various domains to identify potential failures and enhance system reliability. However, conventional FMEA methods often analyze software and hardware failures in isolation, making it difficult to adequately identify or assess the impact of hardware-software interactions on system safety. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an FMEA method that accounts for hardware-software fault coupling (HSFC-FMEA), focusing on the influence of such couplings on the Risk Priority Number (RPN). By incorporating the Hadamard product and power-exponent based inner/outer product mappings, a fault mode coupling matrix and computational model are constructed to calculate the RPN for coupled failure modes. Furthermore, using sparse matrix compression, the HSFC-FMEA method can be extended to large-scale systems with integrated hardware-software functionalities beyond embedded systems. A case study on an intelligent gas filling control device demonstrates the effectiveness of this method. By incorporating coupling effects between software and hardware fault modes in severity, occurrence, and detectability, it introduces a new dimension to risk assessment in integrated systems, thereby addressing the oversight of coupled failure modes caused by isolated analysis. Comparisons with classical methods further confirm the adaptability and effectiveness of HSFC-FMEA.

失效模式及影响分析（FMEA）是一种有效的风险预防和控制方法，已广泛应用于各个领域，用于识别潜在故障，提高系统可靠性。然而，传统的FMEA方法经常孤立地分析软件和硬件故障，这使得很难充分识别或评估硬件和软件交互对系统安全的影响。为了解决这一限制，本文提出了一种考虑软硬件故障耦合的FMEA方法（HSFC-FMEA），重点研究了这种耦合对风险优先级数（RPN）的影响。结合Hadamard积和基于幂指数的内外积映射，构造了故障模式耦合矩阵和计算模型，计算了耦合故障模式的RPN。此外，利用稀疏矩阵压缩，HSFC-FMEA方法可以扩展到嵌入式系统以外具有集成软硬件功能的大型系统。以智能充气控制装置为例，验证了该方法的有效性。通过将软件和硬件故障模式在严重性、发生率和可检测性方面的耦合效应结合起来，为集成系统的风险评估引入了一个新的维度，从而解决了孤立分析引起的耦合故障模式的监督问题。与经典方法的比较进一步证实了HSFC-FMEA的适应性和有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the human-involved risk coupling and effectiveness of intelligent decoupling technologies of safety risk in power system construction and operation 电力系统建设与运行中人为风险耦合及安全风险智能解耦技术的有效性研究

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112180

Lingyu Zuo, Kefan Xie

In power system construction and operation (PSC&O), human factors are critical contributors to accidents, frequently coupling with machine, environmental, and management factors to amplify risks. To address these challenges, it is essential to transition from traditional man-machine systems to human-centered human-machine collaboration by leveraging intelligent safety technologies associated with Industry 5.0. Based on expert interviews and an analysis of 165 human casualty accident reports from 2019 to 2023, this study employs grounded theory to systematically identify safety risks within the "human-machine-environment-management" framework. The N-K model is employed to identify key human-factor risk coupling patterns, which are then examined through a workflow-based accident causal chain analysis to detail human-factor interactions and corresponding technology demands. Based on this foundation, the entropy-weighting & TOPSIS method is used to assess the decoupling effectiveness of six representative Industry 5.0 intelligent safety technologies. The results show that "human-management" interactions are not only the most frequent sources of accidents but also involve the riskiest subfactor couplings. Moreover, multi-factor risk couplings generally exhibit higher risk levels than two-factor couplings. Among the technologies evaluated, intelligent detection and monitoring systems and intelligent risk early warning systems demonstrate the strongest decoupling performance, while intelligent control technologies are comparatively less effective.

在电力系统建设和运行（PSC&；O）中，人为因素是造成事故的关键因素，经常与机器、环境和管理因素相结合，放大风险。为了应对这些挑战，必须利用与工业5.0相关的智能安全技术，从传统的人机系统过渡到以人为中心的人机协作。本研究基于专家访谈和对2019 - 2023年165份人员伤亡事故报告的分析，采用扎根理论在“人-机-环境-管理”框架下系统识别安全风险。N-K模型用于识别关键的人因风险耦合模式，然后通过基于工作流的事故因果链分析来检查这些模式，以详细说明人因相互作用和相应的技术需求。在此基础上，采用熵权TOPSIS方法对6项具有代表性的工业5.0智能安全技术进行解耦效果评估。结果表明，“人-管理”互动不仅是最常见的事故来源，而且涉及最危险的子因素耦合。此外，多因素风险耦合通常比双因素风险耦合表现出更高的风险水平。其中，智能检测监控系统和智能风险预警系统的解耦效果最强，而智能控制技术的解耦效果相对较差。

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引用次数: 0

Digital twin evolution mechanism for individual aircraft life prognosis enhanced by on-line hybrid monitoring 在线混合监测增强单架飞机寿命预测的数字孪生演化机制

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112181

Shenfang Yuan , Yixing Meng , Jian Chen, Yuanqiang Ren, Qianjian Wu

Recently, the novel concept of digital twin (DT) has attracted much attention to perform structural life prognosis. Though some explorations have been performed, research is still limited, especially the evolution mechanism which can co-evolve multi-parameters in every DT module by taking advantage of the structural health monitoring (SHM) methods, which can provide more timely and effective interactions compared to ordinary non-destructive testing (NDT)/non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods. Targeting at realizing high-fidelity life prognosis DT, a novel life prognosis DT model evolution mechanism enhanced by on-line damage and load hybrid monitoring is proposed to co-evolve multiple DT parameters in this paper. A new life prognosis DT is established, and by interacting the load spectrum and damage on-line tracked from physical individual structures, multi-parameters in the DT are proposed to be co-evolved, including 3D crack features, crack evolution rate and crack evolution model parameters, stress intensity factor and corresponding surrogate model used for Bayesian filtering estimation & prognosis module. The proposed method is demonstrated by using fiber Bragg grating and guided-wave-based hybrid monitoring established for a critical aircraft attachment structure DT, showing more than 40% improvement in life prognosis accuracy under various severity load spectra in fatigue testing.

近年来，数字孪生（digital twin， DT）的概念在结构寿命预测方面受到了广泛关注。虽然已经进行了一些探索，但研究仍然有限，特别是利用结构健康监测（SHM）方法可以在每个DT模块中共同演化多个参数的演化机制，与普通的无损检测(NDT)/无损评价（NDE）方法相比，可以提供更及时有效的交互。为了实现高保真的寿命预测DT，提出了一种基于损伤与载荷在线混合监测的新型寿命预测DT模型演化机制，实现多个DT参数的协同演化。建立了一种新的寿命预测模型，通过载荷谱与物理个体结构在线跟踪的损伤相互作用，提出了寿命预测模型中的多参数协同演化，包括三维裂纹特征、裂纹演化速率和裂纹演化模型参数、应力强度因子及相应的替代模型，用于贝叶斯滤波估计和预测模块。通过对某飞机关键附件结构DT进行光纤Bragg光栅和导波混合监测，验证了该方法在不同强度载荷谱下的寿命预测精度提高了40%以上。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of emergency decision-making patterns in civil aviation risk events based on the observe-decide-act model 基于观察-决策-行动模型的民航风险事件应急决策模式分析

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112177

Kaifeng Feng , Wenting Ma , Dan Lu , Hang Li , Daqing Li

Aviation emergencies are critical to flight safety, yet the core decision-making patterns and their dynamics remain underexplored empirically. This study leverages large-scale ASRS data to analyze decision-making patterns and their association with event outcome severity in aviation fire scenarios. Integrating the Observe-Decide-Act (ODA) decision model, this research develops a data-driven framework combining large language model (LLM)-based deep semantic extraction, multi-level clustering, and dynamic sequence analysis to systematically examine 300 ASRS fire incident reports. This multi-level analysis reveals that emergency decision-making characteristics show a strong association with the final event outcome severity. At the element level, the study identifies core ODA decision elements, demonstrating that their functional importance and coordination vary systematically with the event's severity level. At the pattern level, it uncovers and characterizes six operationally distinct ODA decision-making patterns, with their usage frequencies exhibiting a strong association with the classified severity level. At the dynamic level, it reveals that decision processes generally transition from exploratory behaviors to a subsequent convergence, with this convergence being more pronounced in high-severity event outcomes. Collectively, these findings provide a comprehensive depiction of how aviation emergency decision-making patterns are associated with scenarios of varying event severity. This study offers an empirical understanding for human decision-making in high-risk environments, which is essential for optimizing pilot training and emergency procedure design.

航空突发事件对飞行安全至关重要，但其核心决策模式及其动态仍未得到实证研究。本研究利用大规模ASRS数据来分析航空火灾场景中决策模式及其与事件结果严重程度的关系。本研究结合观察-决定-行动（ODA）决策模型，开发了基于大语言模型（LLM）的深度语义提取、多层次聚类和动态序列分析相结合的数据驱动框架，对300份ASRS火灾事件报告进行了系统分析。这种多层次分析表明，应急决策特征与最终事件结果严重程度有很强的相关性。在要素层面，该研究确定了核心的官方发展援助决策要素，表明它们的功能重要性和协调性随着事件的严重程度而系统性地变化。在模式级别，它揭示并描述了六种操作上不同的官方发展援助决策模式，它们的使用频率显示出与分类严重程度的强烈关联。在动态层面，它揭示了决策过程通常从探索性行为过渡到随后的收敛，这种收敛在高严重性事件结果中更为明显。总的来说，这些发现提供了航空应急决策模式如何与不同事件严重程度情景相关的全面描述。本研究提供了高风险环境下人类决策的经验理解，这对优化飞行员培训和应急程序设计至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Probabilistic risk and resilience assessment of high-rise concrete structures under mainshock-aftershock sequences: A case study 高层混凝土结构在主余震序列下的概率风险与弹性评估：一个案例研究

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112175

Hang Li , Changdong Zhou

Aftershocks exacerbate structural damage and elevate seismic risk. Existing studies on high-rise concrete structures primarily focus on the mainshock, overlooking the cumulative effects of aftershocks. This paper proposes a comprehensive analytical method to evaluate the probabilistic risk and resilience of high-rise concrete structures subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. A reinforced concrete TV tower exceeding 400 m in height is adopted as a case study, and the cumulative structural damage is quantitatively analyzed based on the Park-Ang damage model. The joint seismic hazard surface for mainshock-aftershock sequences is constructed using the Copula function, systematically revealing the significant amplification effect of aftershocks on structural risk. Additionally, a comprehensive resilience assessment is conducted from multiple dimensions, including functional loss and recovery time. The results show that, compared to the mainshock alone, the seismic risk of the structure under the mainshock-aftershock sequences is significantly increased, with the risk level reaching 2.0 to 3.5 times that of the mainshock alone. Although aftershocks exacerbate structural functional loss and significantly extend the recovery period, comparative analysis indicates that the tower's main structure exhibits strong damage tolerance and recovery capability. This case study underscores the need to fully account for aftershock effects in the seismic design and maintenance of high-rise concrete structures.

余震加剧了结构破坏，增加了地震风险。现有的高层混凝土结构研究主要集中在主震上，忽略了余震的累积效应。本文提出了一种评价高层混凝土结构在主余震作用下的概率风险和恢复能力的综合分析方法。以某高度超过400 m的钢筋混凝土电视塔为例，基于Park-Ang损伤模型对其累积结构损伤进行了定量分析。利用Copula函数构造了主余震序列联合地震危险面，系统地揭示了余震对结构风险的显著放大效应。此外，还从功能损失和恢复时间等多个维度进行了全面的恢复能力评估。结果表明：与主震单独作用相比，主震-余震序列作用下结构的地震危险性显著增大，危险性等级达到主震单独作用下的2.0 ~ 3.5倍；虽然余震加剧了结构功能损失，显著延长了恢复期，但对比分析表明，塔楼主体结构表现出较强的损伤容忍度和恢复能力。本案例研究强调了在高层混凝土结构的抗震设计和维护中充分考虑余震效应的必要性。

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引用次数: 0