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Uncertainty-aware remaining useful life prediction and PPO based optimal maintenance scheduling in industrial IoT 工业物联网中不确定性感知剩余使用寿命预测和基于PPO的最优维护调度
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112356
Guneet Kaur Walia, Mohit Kumar
The rapid emergence of digitized factories and advanced automotive manufacturing has paved the way for the integration of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to maximize equipment uptime, that enhances manufacturing operations and support reliability. Predictive maintenance (PdM) is a key approach that leverages equipment sensor data to monitor performance abnormalities. Further, the estimation of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) aids in predicting potential or impeding failover before its actual breakdown. However, only few studies extend the work of RUL prognostics prediction to scheduling equipment maintenance, but suffer from few challenges such as overestimation of Q-values, instability during training, and inefficient performance. In addition to this, existing investigations often consider single-point RUL predictions, however in real-world scenario, many factors such as noise, distinct operating conditions of the equipment and nevertheless complex nature of equipment agening, introduces the concept of uncertainity. Hence, it becomes paramount to quantify the uncertainity of RUL, for which the authors propose non-parametric probabilistic prediction method, known as Quantile Regression (QR) integrated with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for predicting RUL values of the equipment. Further, the RUL values are utilized to design better adaptive maintenance scheduling plans using the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) approach. The work has been tested on a prominent NASA turbofan engine dataset, which illustrates the promising performance of the proposed framework. The experimental results validate that the proposed work improves RUL prediction up to 19.08 % and minimizes maintenance schedule time up to 24.18 % in comparison to state-of-the-art approaches.
数字化工厂和先进汽车制造的迅速兴起,为物联网(IoT)传感器和人工智能(AI)技术的集成铺平了道路,从而最大限度地延长了设备的正常运行时间,从而增强了制造运营和支持可靠性。预测性维护(PdM)是利用设备传感器数据监控性能异常的关键方法。此外,剩余使用寿命(RUL)的估计有助于在实际故障转移之前预测潜在的或阻碍故障转移。然而,只有少数研究将RUL预测预测的工作扩展到设备维护调度,但面临的挑战很少,如q值的高估,训练期间的不稳定以及效率低下。除此之外,现有的调查通常考虑单点RUL预测,然而在现实场景中,许多因素,如噪音,设备的不同操作条件以及设备老化的复杂性,引入了不确定性的概念。因此,量化RUL的不确定性变得至关重要,为此,作者提出了一种非参数概率预测方法,即分位数回归(QR)与门控循环单元(GRU)和卷积神经网络(CNN)相结合,用于预测设备的RUL值。此外,RUL值被用于设计更好的自适应维护调度计划,使用近端策略优化(PPO)方法。这项工作已经在一个著名的NASA涡扇发动机数据集上进行了测试,这说明了所提出框架的良好性能。实验结果证实,与最先进的方法相比,所提出的工作将RUL预测提高了19.08%,并将维护计划时间缩短了24.18%。
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引用次数: 0
System-of-systems safety for low-altitude aviation transportation 低空航空运输的系统安全
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112276
Anzhuo Yao , Shanghan Li , Kaifeng Feng , Tengfei Zhang , Xueying Song , Lizhi Wang , Ruixin Wang , Peng He , Hang Zhou , Hang Li , Shuiting Ding , Daqing Li
Low-altitude (LA) transportation is rapidly evolving as a new sector of traditional aviation industry. Specifically, existing aviation safety studies were largely developed under traditional aviation System-of-systems (SoS) architectures, and primarily address system-level risks (human, vehicle, communication-navigation-surveillance, or operational management) with clear system boundaries. As a new SoS, LA SoS may have new emergent risk types and cross-domain cascading risk propagation via new architecture. This paper considers the LA transportation SoS from architecture viewpoint, and analyzes its new characteristics and risk patterns. Therefore, we propose LA SoS safety engineering framework to handle these possible new challenges through architecture design, testing & evaluation, and safety management. Accordingly, our SoS safety engineering framework mainly includes: architecture design (human-automation safety control and digital flight rules), testing & evaluation (traceable design-to-verification and equipment safety requirement), and safety management (monitor-assess-mitigate for in-time risk prediction and mitigation). Our safety engineering framework aims to provide possible solution for this new complex system of LA aviation transportation.
低空运输作为传统航空工业的一个新兴领域,正在迅速发展。具体而言,现有的航空安全研究主要是在传统的航空系统的系统(SoS)架构下进行的,并且主要解决系统级风险(人、车辆、通信-导航-监视或运营管理),具有明确的系统边界。作为一种新型的安全组织,安全组织可能具有新的突发风险类型,并通过新的体系结构进行跨域级联风险传播。本文从建筑学的角度对洛杉矶交通系统进行了研究,分析了其新的特点和风险模式。因此,我们提出了LA SoS安全工程框架,通过架构设计、测试和评估以及安全管理来应对这些可能的新挑战。因此,我们的SoS安全工程框架主要包括:架构设计(人-自动化安全控制和数字飞行规则)、测试与评估(从设计到验证的可追溯性和设备安全要求)和安全管理(监测-评估-缓解,及时预测和缓解风险)。我们的安全工程框架旨在为这个新的复杂的洛杉矶航空运输系统提供可能的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting operators reliability for control room alarm management using knowledge-based Bayesian networks 基于知识贝叶斯网络的控制室报警管理操作员可靠性预测
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112261
Houda Briwa , Anders L. Madsen , Maria Chiara Leva
Despite comprehensive standards for industrial alarm management and existing human reliability studies on operator behavior, quantitative operator-centered reliability assessment within alarm management activities remains limited. This paper presents a Bayesian network framework that integrates alarm response task decomposition, cognitive modeling, and contextual factors to assess alarm management reliability across perception, planning, and execution phases, capturing both task effectiveness and temporal constraints. The model combines Performance Shaping Factors with phase-specific cognitive mechanisms using an object-oriented Bayesian network implementation in HUGIN Software. The model was built within the context of a simulated experiment to enable future data validation. Model parameters were defined through literature and, when unavailable, through expert assumptions. Value of information and sensitivity analyses reveal that performance is primarily driven by operator experience and task complexity, factors parameterized through established literature. In contrast, support system effects show minimal impact, possibly reflecting the experiment’s limited scope. Failure patterns differ across experience levels: novices most likely fail through timeout, while experienced operators typically fail through incorrect actions. Sensitivity analysis highlighted that the perception phase is most sensitive to parameter changes. This framework demonstrates how established HRA principles can be extended to alarm management contexts, establishing a structured approach for evaluating operator-alarm interaction pending empirical validation.
尽管工业报警管理的综合标准和现有的操作员行为的人类可靠性研究,在报警管理活动中以操作员为中心的定量可靠性评估仍然有限。本文提出了一个贝叶斯网络框架,该框架集成了警报响应任务分解、认知建模和上下文因素,以评估警报管理在感知、规划和执行阶段的可靠性,同时捕获任务有效性和时间约束。该模型使用HUGIN软件中的面向对象贝叶斯网络实现将性能塑造因素与阶段特定认知机制相结合。该模型是在模拟实验的背景下建立的,以便将来验证数据。模型参数通过文献定义,如果无法获得,则通过专家假设定义。信息价值和敏感性分析表明,性能主要由操作员经验和任务复杂性驱动,这些因素通过已建立的文献参数化。相比之下,支持系统效应的影响微乎其微,这可能反映了实验的范围有限。失败模式因经验水平而异:新手最有可能因超时而失败,而经验丰富的操作人员通常因错误操作而失败。灵敏度分析表明,感知阶段对参数变化最为敏感。该框架展示了如何将已建立的HRA原则扩展到警报管理环境,建立了一种结构化的方法来评估操作员-警报交互,等待经验验证。
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引用次数: 0
A joint probability model for multi-hazard intensity in earthquake-induced rockfall scenarios 地震岩崩多灾害强度的联合概率模型
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112342
Enjia Zhao , Jianian Wen , Xiaoyu Bai , Qiang Han , Xiuli Du
The earthquake-induced rockfall hazard is one of the multi-hazard scenarios that threaten the safety of structures in mountainous areas. However, the lack of quantitative load models for earthquake-induced rockfall multi-hazard significantly limits the ability to evaluate the reliability of structures under such conditions. To address this gap, a methodology was proposed to establish a joint probability model for multi-hazard intensity in earthquake-induced rockfall scenarios. First, an intensity database for earthquake-induced rockfall was established using a validated numerical simulation. Then, marginal distribution models were developed for earthquake and rockfall intensities, and joint probability models based on Copula theory were established and validated with simulated data. A case study of the methodology for establishing the joint probability model was conducted based on normalized terrains. The analysis results indicate a positive correlation between the cumulative absolute displacement of ground motions and the rockfall energy, with the Spearman coefficient exceeding 0.327. The randomly simulated data from the joint probability models effectively reproduce the fundamental patterns and the extreme characteristics of earthquake-induced rockfall scenarios. This demonstrated the proposed joint probability models accurately capture the energy characteristics of earthquake-induced rockfall, providing a valuable reference for risk assessment of structures located in mountainous areas.
地震岩崩灾害是威胁山区结构安全的多灾种之一。然而,地震岩崩多重灾害的定量荷载模型的缺乏,极大地限制了在这种情况下评估结构可靠性的能力。为了解决这一问题,提出了一种建立地震岩崩多灾害强度联合概率模型的方法。首先,利用经过验证的数值模拟,建立了地震岩崩烈度数据库。建立了地震和岩落烈度的边际分布模型,建立了基于Copula理论的联合概率模型,并用模拟数据进行了验证。以归一化地形为例,研究了建立联合概率模型的方法。分析结果表明,地震动累积绝对位移与落石能量呈正相关,其Spearman系数大于0.327。联合概率模型的随机模拟数据有效地再现了地震诱发岩崩情景的基本模式和极端特征。结果表明,所建立的联合概率模型准确地捕捉了地震诱发岩落的能量特征,为山区结构体的风险评估提供了有价值的参考。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic evolutionary pathway analysis of urban rail transit flood risks and intelligent decision support based on knowledge graphs 基于知识图的城市轨道交通洪涝风险动态演化路径分析及智能决策支持
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112345
Hao Wang , Shenglin Liu , Lei Li , Jian Zuo , Xianhai Meng , Michael Goodsite , Liudan Jiao , Liu Wu
With the intensification of global climate change, rainstorm disasters have become increasingly frequent and catastrophic. Urban rail transit (URT) systems, which are primarily constructed underground, possess structural features that make them particularly vulnerable to severe impacts during heavy rainfall events. Such disasters can result in significant casualties and substantial losses. Meanwhile, extensive domain-specific knowledge has been accumulated from historical disaster events. Effectively extracting and utilizing such knowledge is essential for improving disaster risk identification and enhancing emergency management practice. To address these challenges, this study proposes a method for analyzing risk evolution mechanisms by integrating Knowledge Graph and Natural Language Processing (NLP) technologies. The knowledge graph enables structured knowledge representation and facilitates effective knowledge reuse. Building on this, a knowledge-driven decision support model is established by combining the language understanding capability of NLP with the inferential capacity of knowledge graphs. Case studies of representative examples are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in this study. The findings show that structuring knowledge in the form of a graph network offers significant advantages for the intelligent analysis of disaster risk evolution. On one hand, a large amount of multi-source, heterogeneous knowledge related to URT flood risks is systematically structured and represented, thereby enhancing the efficiency of knowledge utilization by decision-makers. On the other hand, integrating NLP with knowledge graph–based risk network analysis enables the accurate identification of potential risk paths, providing valuable insights and a foundation for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making.
随着全球气候变化的加剧,暴雨灾害越来越频繁,灾害性也越来越大。城市轨道交通(URT)系统主要建在地下,其结构特点使其在强降雨事件中特别容易受到严重影响。这类灾害可造成重大人员伤亡和重大损失。同时,从历史灾难事件中积累了丰富的领域知识。有效地提取和利用这些知识对于改进灾害风险识别和加强应急管理做法至关重要。为了应对这些挑战,本研究提出了一种整合知识图和自然语言处理(NLP)技术的风险演化机制分析方法。知识图实现了结构化的知识表示,促进了知识的有效重用。在此基础上,将NLP的语言理解能力与知识图的推理能力相结合,建立了知识驱动的决策支持模型。通过具有代表性的案例研究,验证了本文方法的有效性。研究结果表明,以图形网络的形式结构化知识为灾害风险演化的智能分析提供了显著的优势。一方面,将大量与城市轨道交通洪水风险相关的多源、异构知识进行了系统的结构化和表征,提高了决策者对知识的利用效率;另一方面,将自然语言处理与基于知识图的风险网络分析相结合,可以准确识别潜在的风险路径,为防灾减灾决策提供有价值的见解和基础。
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引用次数: 0
Nested adaptive Kriging-based reliability analysis and computational resource allocation for complex systems 基于嵌套自适应kriging的复杂系统可靠性分析与计算资源分配
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112367
Kewei Ye , Xiaobing Ma , Han Wang
Efficient reliability analysis of complex engineering systems faces significant challenges due to the integration of multiple subproblems, multidisciplinary coupling, high-dimensional characteristics, and resource incompatibility. These systems are often decomposed into multiple cascading subsystems, which enables concurrent analysis to manage this complexity. Surrogate-based techniques are widely utilized to alleviate the computational burden associated with time-consuming simulations. This study proposes a nested adaptive Kriging-based method for the reliability analysis of complex systems by integrating system decomposition with adaptive surrogate-based methods. The proposed method operates within a multilayer framework and proceeds in two stages, namely, a sequential updating stage and a resource allocation stage. In the first stage, an efficient nested reliability-oriented acquisition function is developed to guide model updating, and its closed-form expression is derived. In the second stage, a cost-effectiveness strategy that accounts for both simulation costs and modeling costs is introduced to determine which model combinations should be updated at each iteration. Finally, the proposed method is validated to be superior to the benchmark method and strategy through two mathematical examples and two practical applications.
复杂工程系统的多子问题集成、多学科耦合、高维特性和资源不兼容等特点,使高效的可靠性分析面临重大挑战。这些系统通常被分解为多个级联子系统,这使得并发分析能够管理这种复杂性。基于代理的技术被广泛用于减轻与耗时模拟相关的计算负担。将基于自适应代理的方法与系统分解相结合,提出了一种基于嵌套自适应kriging的复杂系统可靠性分析方法。该方法在多层框架内运行,分顺序更新阶段和资源分配阶段两个阶段进行。首先,建立了一个高效的面向可靠性的嵌套获取函数来指导模型更新,并推导了该函数的封闭表达式;在第二阶段,引入考虑模拟成本和建模成本的成本效益策略,以确定在每次迭代中应该更新哪些模型组合。最后,通过两个数学算例和两个实际应用,验证了所提方法优于基准方法和策略。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Bayesian maintenance policy for gear shafts under variable operating conditions with partially observable information 具有部分可观测信息的变工况下齿轮轴的最优贝叶斯维修策略
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112388
Xin Li , Jing Cai , Weixi Shi , Zhenzhen Liu , Zhendong Zhao , Yan Liu , Hang Fei , Hongfu Zuo
In mechanical transmission systems, gear shafts serve as essential conduits for torque transfer and alignment processes, and their failure can lead to substantial increases in maintenance and supportability costs. Sensor-based condition monitoring yields only partially observable information about the actual health of gear shafts, which complicates maintenance decisions. To overcome this challenge, a novel optimal Bayesian maintenance policy under partially observable information is presented. A hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) consisting of three states—unobservable healthy and unhealthy states, as well as an observable failure state—is employed to model the performance degradation process of the target system. Considering the nondecreasing characteristics of the system hazard rate in normal operations and wear-out stages in practical scenarios, the Erlang and hyper-Erlang distributions are employed to depict the sojourn times in the healthy and unhealthy states, respectively. An explicit conditional reliability function is updated in real time on the basis of Bayes’ theorem and integrated into a cost-minimizing semi-Markov decision process (SMDP). A control limit algorithm identifies the reliability threshold for optimal downtime scheduling. A validation of the gear shaft life test conducted under variable operating conditions reveals the earlier detection of incipient failures and lower expected average costs than those of other fault detection models. The proposed approach offers both theoretical insights and practical value for enhancing the safety and reliability of high-end mechanical equipment.
在机械传动系统中,齿轮轴是扭矩传递和对准过程的重要管道,它们的故障会导致维护和支持成本的大幅增加。基于传感器的状态监测只能获得有关齿轮轴实际健康状况的部分可观察信息,这使得维护决策变得复杂。为了克服这一挑战,提出了一种新的部分可观察信息下的最优贝叶斯维护策略。采用隐半马尔可夫模型(HSMM)对目标系统的性能退化过程进行建模,该模型由不可观察的健康状态和不健康状态以及可观察的失效状态三种状态组成。考虑到实际场景中系统在正常运行和磨损阶段的危害率不降低的特点,分别采用Erlang和超Erlang分布来描述健康和非健康状态下的停留时间。根据贝叶斯定理实时更新显式条件可靠性函数,并将其集成到成本最小化的半马尔可夫决策过程中。控制极限算法确定了最优停机调度的可靠性阈值。在不同运行条件下进行的齿轮轴寿命测试验证表明,与其他故障检测模型相比,该模型可以更早地检测到早期故障,并且预期平均成本更低。该方法对提高高端机械设备的安全性和可靠性具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
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引用次数: 0
A safety protection method based on trajectory prediction for the operation of virtual coupling trains 基于轨迹预测的虚拟联轴车运行安全保护方法
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112328
Ying Zhao , Haijun Li , Xiaobing Liu , Yan Huang
This study proposes a safety protection method based on trajectory prediction (SPTP) for the operation of virtual coupling trains. Specifically, a hybrid TLMA model that integrates Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Multi-head Self-attention (MATT) was developed to predict the trajectory of the leading train. Based on the prediction results, the SPTP method was introduced, grounded in principles such as space requirements for the following train’s operation, safety requirements when trains are stationary in the station platform, and operation safety requirements under different adverse conditions. Furthermore, a microscopic multi-state train-following model was constructed to validate the effectiveness of the SPTP method. The comparative results of the prediction model demonstrate that the TLMA model outperforms baseline models, achieving high accuracy and demonstrating excellent applicability for train trajectory prediction. Then, the SPTP method was compared with existing safety protection methods. Numerical simulation results showed that the SPTP method effectively reduced the distance interval between trains by 34.6 %, the speed difference between trains by 7.0 %, and the arrival time deviation by 65.0 %. These findings suggest that the SPTP method could effectively improve operation efficiency for urban rail trains and enhance passenger service quality.
提出了一种基于轨迹预测的虚拟联轴车运行安全保护方法。具体而言,建立了一种结合时间卷积网络(TCN)、长短期记忆(LSTM)和多头自注意(MATT)的混合TLMA模型来预测前导列车的运行轨迹。根据预测结果,从后续列车运行的空间要求、列车在站台静止时的安全要求、不同不利条件下的运行安全要求等原则出发,引入了SPTP方法。在此基础上,构建了微观多状态列车跟踪模型,验证了SPTP方法的有效性。预测模型的对比结果表明,TLMA模型优于基线模型,具有较高的预测精度,对列车轨迹预测具有良好的适用性。然后,将SPTP方法与现有的安全保护方法进行了比较。数值模拟结果表明,SPTP方法可有效地将列车间距缩短34.6%,列车间速度差缩短7.0%,到达时间偏差缩短65.0%。研究结果表明,SPTP方法可以有效提高城市轨道交通运行效率,提高客运服务质量。
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引用次数: 0
SCADA data-driven failure rate and reliability prediction for offshore wind turbines SCADA数据驱动的海上风力涡轮机故障率和可靠性预测
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112378
Xiangyu Kong , Ruishu Huang , He Li , C. Guedes Soares
A data-driven model is proposed for the failure rate prediction of offshore wind turbines using the Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from onshore and offshore wind farms. The wind turbines are first decomposed into multiple components according to maintenance records. An adaptive weighting algorithm is then developed to assess the relative contributions of reliability-influencing factors to failure rate conversion. Subsequently, a failure rate prediction model is proposed for offshore wind turbines based on transforming onshore device failure rates. The result shows that the failure rate of offshore wind turbines is approximately 23% higher than that of onshore wind turbines. Comparative results confirm that the proposed method generates lower estimation errors than existing approaches.
利用陆上和海上风电场的监控和数据采集(SCADA)数据,提出了一种数据驱动的海上风力发电机故障率预测模型。根据维护记录,首先将风力涡轮机分解为多个部件。然后提出了一种自适应加权算法来评估可靠性影响因素对故障率转换的相对贡献。在此基础上,提出了一种基于陆上设备故障率变换的海上风力发电机故障率预测模型。结果表明,海上风力机的故障率比陆上风力机高约23%。对比结果表明,该方法比现有方法产生的估计误差更小。
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引用次数: 0
Seismic fragility of CAP1400 nuclear power plant consisting of steel-concrete shield building under mainshock-aftershock sequences 主余震序列下钢-混凝土盾构结构CAP1400核电站的地震易损性
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2026.112288
Xiao-Bin Wang , Ye-Yao Weng , Miao-Jun Qin , Yan-Gang Zhao
The seismic safety of the CAP1400 nuclear power plant (NPP) is critically important as its failure would result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Currently, seismic fragility analysis for the CAP1400 NPP has been conducted solely under single ground motions. Since strong ground motions often trigger multiple aftershocks, a comprehensive seismic fragility analysis of the CAP1400 NPP under mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) sequences is conducted in this paper. Incremental dynamic analysis results and seismic fragility curves are derived using 20 MS-AS records, scaled with different intensity ratios of 1:0.6, 1:0.8, and 1:1. The results indicate that MS-AS sequences cause more severe damage to the CAP1400 NPP compared to mainshock records, and the damage intensifies as the aftershock ratio increases. Furthermore, as the CAP1400 NPP generally adopts steel-concrete (SC) shield building instead of conventional reinforcement concrete (RC) shield building, a comparative seismic fragility analysis of the CAP1400 NPP with SC and RC shield building is conducted under MS-AS sequences. It is found that the CAP1400 NPP consisting of SC shield building exhibits significantly lower fragility than RC shield building under MS-AS sequences, and as the aftershock ratio increases, the seismic superiority of SC shield building becomes more pronounced.
CAP1400核电站的地震安全是至关重要的,因为它的故障将造成重大的生命损失和经济损失。目前,CAP1400核电站的地震易损性分析仅在单次地面运动下进行。由于强地震动经常引发多次余震,本文对CAP1400核电厂在主震-余震(MS-AS)序列下的地震易感性进行了综合分析。采用20条MS-AS记录,分别按1:0.6、1:0.8和1:1的烈度比进行标度,得到增量动力分析结果和地震易损性曲线。结果表明,与主震记录相比,MS-AS序列对CAP1400核电厂造成更严重的破坏,且随着余震比的增加,破坏程度加剧。此外,由于CAP1400核电厂一般采用钢-混凝土(SC)盾构建筑,而不是传统的钢筋混凝土(RC)盾构建筑,因此在MS-AS序列下对CAP1400核电厂进行了钢-混凝土和钢筋混凝土盾构建筑的地震易损性对比分析。研究发现,在MS-AS序列下,由SC盾构建筑组成的CAP1400核电厂的易损性明显低于RC盾构建筑,且随着余震比的增大,SC盾构建筑的抗震优势更加明显。
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引用次数: 0
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Reliability Engineering & System Safety
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