Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献_第7页

Reliability evaluation for a multi-commodity multi-state distribution network under transportation emission consideration 考虑运输排放因素的多商品多州配送网络可靠性评估

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110599

Yi-Feng Niu , Jun-Feng Wang , Xiu-Zhen Xu , Qian-Xin Xu

This study, from the perspective of environmental effect, presents a novel reliability evaluation of a multi-commodity multi-state distribution network (MMDN) with consideration of transportation emission, in which a node stands for a supplier, a distribution center or a market, an arc represents a carrier offering transportation service along that arc, and multiple types of commodities are simultaneously transported from several sources to the destination. Due to the existence of unpredictable events, the available capacity of each arc should be multi-state, thus, network reliability under transportation emission consideration, defined as the probability that a specific amount of multiple types of commodities can be successfully distributed from several sources to the destination while the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles are within a limit, can serve as a valuable reference to assess the ability of an MMDN to complete the delivery task with limited environmental impact. An algorithm, using minimal paths vectors (MPVs), is proposed to evaluate the indicator, and the solution steps are explicated through an example network. Additionally, a case study is explored to indicate the practicality of the new reliability index and calculation method.

本研究从环境效应的角度出发，提出了一种考虑运输排放的新型多商品多状态配送网络（MMDN）可靠性评价方法。在该方法中，节点代表供应商、配送中心或市场，弧代表沿该弧提供运输服务的承运人，多种类型的商品同时从多个货源地运往目的地。由于不可预测事件的存在，每个弧的可用容量应是多状态的，因此，考虑运输排放因素的网络可靠性，即特定数量的多种商品能从多个货源地成功配送到目的地，同时所有车辆产生的碳排放量在一定范围内的概率，可作为评估多式联运网络在有限的环境影响下完成配送任务的能力的重要参考。本文提出了一种使用最小路径向量（MPV）的算法来评估该指标，并通过一个示例网络对解决步骤进行了阐述。此外，还通过案例研究说明了新可靠性指标和计算方法的实用性。

{"title":"Reliability evaluation for a multi-commodity multi-state distribution network under transportation emission consideration","authors":"Yi-Feng Niu , Jun-Feng Wang , Xiu-Zhen Xu , Qian-Xin Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study, from the perspective of environmental effect, presents a novel reliability evaluation of a multi-commodity multi-state distribution network (MMDN) with consideration of transportation emission, in which a node stands for a supplier, a distribution center or a market, an arc represents a carrier offering transportation service along that arc, and multiple types of commodities are simultaneously transported from several sources to the destination. Due to the existence of unpredictable events, the available capacity of each arc should be multi-state, thus, network reliability under transportation emission consideration, defined as the probability that a specific amount of multiple types of commodities can be successfully distributed from several sources to the destination while the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles are within a limit, can serve as a valuable reference to assess the ability of an MMDN to complete the delivery task with limited environmental impact. An algorithm, using minimal paths vectors (MPVs), is proposed to evaluate the indicator, and the solution steps are explicated through an example network. Additionally, a case study is explored to indicate the practicality of the new reliability index and calculation method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110599"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identification of reference security scenarios from past event datasets by Bayesian Network analysis 通过贝叶斯网络分析从过去的事件数据集中识别参考安全情景

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110615

Matteo Iaiani, Giuseppe Fazari, Alessandro Tugnoli, Valerio Cozzani

The global threat of deliberate attacks on chemical, process, and energy facilities underscores the urgent need to enhance Security Vulnerability/Risk Assessment (SVA/SRA) approaches. Traditional assessments often use historical data and Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to identify reference scenarios. However, EDA lacks a standardized approach to identify and rank the incident chains. A novel methodology based on Bayesian Networks (BN), named BAS²E, was developed to support the systematic identification of reference scenarios from past event datasets. The methodology is based on the development of a static quantified BN, that accurately reflects the causal relationships in incident chains, focusing specifically on those between threats, attack methods, and physical damage scenarios. The BN is quantified by statistical information from the analysis of the incident records and employs the Noisy-OR gate model to manage data gaps in the conditional probability tables (CPTs) specification. The application of the BN sensitivity analysis provides quantification of the reciprocal influence between nodes using a specific derivative-based parameter, allowing for the systematic ranking of the most impactful incident chains to be included as reference scenarios in SVA/SRA. The methodology is demonstrated through its application to a dataset of 109 security incidents that occurred in the offshore Oil&Gas sector.

蓄意攻击化学、加工和能源设施的全球威胁突出表明，迫切需要加强安全漏洞/风险评估（SVA/SRA）方法。传统评估通常使用历史数据和探索性数据分析 (EDA) 来确定参考情景。然而，EDA 缺乏标准化的方法来识别和排列事件链。我们开发了一种基于贝叶斯网络（BN）的新方法，名为 BAS2E，以支持从过去的事件数据集中系统地识别参考情景。该方法基于静态量化贝叶斯网络的开发，可准确反映事件链中的因果关系，尤其侧重于威胁、攻击方法和物理损害情景之间的因果关系。通过分析事件记录中的统计信息对 BN 进行量化，并采用 Noisy-OR 门模型来管理条件概率表 (CPT) 规范中的数据缺口。应用 BN 敏感性分析，可使用基于特定导数的参数对节点之间的相互影响进行量化，从而对影响最大的事件链进行系统排序，作为 SVA/SRA 的参考情景。通过将该方法应用于海上石油和天然气行业发生的 109 起安全事件的数据集，对其进行了演示。

{"title":"Identification of reference security scenarios from past event datasets by Bayesian Network analysis","authors":"Matteo Iaiani, Giuseppe Fazari, Alessandro Tugnoli, Valerio Cozzani","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global threat of deliberate attacks on chemical, process, and energy facilities underscores the urgent need to enhance Security Vulnerability/Risk Assessment (SVA/SRA) approaches. Traditional assessments often use historical data and Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to identify reference scenarios. However, EDA lacks a standardized approach to identify and rank the incident chains. A novel methodology based on Bayesian Networks (BN), named BAS<sup>2</sup>E, was developed to support the systematic identification of reference scenarios from past event datasets. The methodology is based on the development of a static quantified BN, that accurately reflects the causal relationships in incident chains, focusing specifically on those between threats, attack methods, and physical damage scenarios. The BN is quantified by statistical information from the analysis of the incident records and employs the Noisy-OR gate model to manage data gaps in the conditional probability tables (CPTs) specification. The application of the BN sensitivity analysis provides quantification of the reciprocal influence between nodes using a specific derivative-based parameter, allowing for the systematic ranking of the most impactful incident chains to be included as reference scenarios in SVA/SRA. The methodology is demonstrated through its application to a dataset of 109 security incidents that occurred in the offshore Oil&Gas sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110615"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A sensitivity analysis based trade-off between probabilistic model identification and statistical estimation 基于敏感性分析的概率模型识别与统计估算之间的权衡

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110545

Charles Surget , Sylvain Dubreuil , Jérôme Morio , Cécile Mattrand , Jean-Marc Bourinet , Nicolas Gayton

In a context of uncertainty quantification, the probabilistic model of a random vector at the input of a computational code is not always known. An identification of the joint distribution on a restricted sample of experimental data can lead to a bad calibration of the model. The quantity of interest estimated at the output of the code is then subject to a bi-level epistemic uncertainty that must be properly quantified. A first level arises from the statistical estimation whilst a second one comes from the identification of the probabilistic model. Each epistemic uncertainty can thus be reduced by an enrichment with new data, either by increasing the size of the estimation sample or by increasing the size of the identification sample. When gathering data is costly, it is then interesting to know which uncertainty source to reduce first, thus introducing a trade-off between simulation and physical experiment. This paper aims at presenting a sensitivity-analysis-guided enrichment procedure in a small data context to improve the estimation quality of a quantity of interest. The proposed methodology is shown to be both low cost and adaptive by introducing importance-sampling-based methods. The performance of the guided enrichment procedure is assessed on three examples.

在不确定性量化的背景下，计算代码输入端随机向量的概率模型并不总是已知的。对受限实验数据样本的联合分布进行识别，可能会导致对模型的错误校准。因此，在代码输出端估算出的相关数量会受到两级认识不确定性的影响，必须对其进行适当量化。第一级来自统计估算，第二级来自概率模型的识别。因此，可以通过增加估算样本或识别样本的数量来丰富新数据，从而减少认识上的不确定性。当收集数据的成本很高时，就需要知道先减少哪个不确定性源，从而在模拟和物理实验之间做出权衡。本文旨在介绍一种在小数据背景下以灵敏度分析为指导的富集程序，以提高相关量的估计质量。通过引入基于重要性采样的方法，证明了所提出的方法既成本低又具有自适应能力。在三个实例中评估了指导性富集程序的性能。

{"title":"A sensitivity analysis based trade-off between probabilistic model identification and statistical estimation","authors":"Charles Surget , Sylvain Dubreuil , Jérôme Morio , Cécile Mattrand , Jean-Marc Bourinet , Nicolas Gayton","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a context of uncertainty quantification, the probabilistic model of a random vector at the input of a computational code is not always known. An identification of the joint distribution on a restricted sample of experimental data can lead to a bad calibration of the model. The quantity of interest estimated at the output of the code is then subject to a bi-level epistemic uncertainty that must be properly quantified. A first level arises from the statistical estimation whilst a second one comes from the identification of the probabilistic model. Each epistemic uncertainty can thus be reduced by an enrichment with new data, either by increasing the size of the estimation sample or by increasing the size of the identification sample. When gathering data is costly, it is then interesting to know which uncertainty source to reduce first, thus introducing a trade-off between simulation and physical experiment. This paper aims at presenting a sensitivity-analysis-guided enrichment procedure in a small data context to improve the estimation quality of a quantity of interest. The proposed methodology is shown to be both low cost and adaptive by introducing importance-sampling-based methods. The performance of the guided enrichment procedure is assessed on three examples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110545"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multi-phase mission success evaluation approach for maritime autonomous surface ships considering equipment performance degradation and system composition changes 考虑设备性能退化和系统组成变化的海上自主水面舰艇多阶段任务成功评估方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110604

Xiaofang Luo , Linghui Guo , Xu Bai , Yushan Li , Yingfei Zan , Jiaxuan Luo

With the development of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs), the mission success assessment problem cannot be ignored because of potential security issues of MASSs. This paper addresses the issue of performance degradation at different stages, the problem of state dependence in multi-stage missions of MASSs, and the correlation problem between missions of stages. Based on the coupling of the reliability model of each single-stage mission system, a multi-stage mission success evaluation method for MASSs is proposed. By leveraging the ability of the conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks to express the complex relationships between the nodes, the dynamic Bayesian network model of stages is constructed based on the fault tree. Based on the Markov process, the problem of state dependence on shared equipment between stages is solved. Considering the complex relationship between multi-stage missions, the virtual node is introduced, and the multi-state Bayesian network is combined to realize the coupling of the reliability evaluation results of each single-stage mission. It is applied to the multi-stage mission success evaluation of the MASS to obtain the success probability of MASSs and the key equipment of each stage. The results show that evaluation results are more suitable for engineering practice.

随着海上自主水面舰艇（MASSs）的发展，由于 MASSs 潜在的安全问题，任务成功评估问题不容忽视。本文探讨了不同阶段的性能退化问题、MASS 多阶段任务的状态依赖问题以及各阶段任务之间的关联问题。在各单级任务系统可靠性模型耦合的基础上，提出了一种多级飞行任务成功率评估方法。利用贝叶斯网络中条件概率表表达节点间复杂关系的能力，构建了基于故障树的阶段动态贝叶斯网络模型。基于马尔可夫过程，解决了阶段间共享设备的状态依赖问题。考虑到多级任务之间的复杂关系，引入虚拟节点，结合多状态贝叶斯网络，实现各单级任务可靠性评估结果的耦合。将其应用于MASS多阶段任务成功率评估，得出MASS各阶段任务及关键设备的成功概率。结果表明，评价结果更适合工程实践。

{"title":"A multi-phase mission success evaluation approach for maritime autonomous surface ships considering equipment performance degradation and system composition changes","authors":"Xiaofang Luo , Linghui Guo , Xu Bai , Yushan Li , Yingfei Zan , Jiaxuan Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the development of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs), the mission success assessment problem cannot be ignored because of potential security issues of MASSs. This paper addresses the issue of performance degradation at different stages, the problem of state dependence in multi-stage missions of MASSs, and the correlation problem between missions of stages. Based on the coupling of the reliability model of each single-stage mission system, a multi-stage mission success evaluation method for MASSs is proposed. By leveraging the ability of the conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks to express the complex relationships between the nodes, the dynamic Bayesian network model of stages is constructed based on the fault tree. Based on the Markov process, the problem of state dependence on shared equipment between stages is solved. Considering the complex relationship between multi-stage missions, the virtual node is introduced, and the multi-state Bayesian network is combined to realize the coupling of the reliability evaluation results of each single-stage mission. It is applied to the multi-stage mission success evaluation of the MASS to obtain the success probability of MASSs and the key equipment of each stage. The results show that evaluation results are more suitable for engineering practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110604"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142554108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing spacecraft safety and longevity: A review of guided waves-based structural health monitoring 提高航天器的安全性和寿命：基于导波的结构健康监测综述

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110586

Sunquan Yu , Kai Luo , Chengguang Fan , Kangjia Fu , Xuesong Wu , Yong Chen , Xiang Zhang

The reusability and prolonged operation of spacecraft underscore the critical need for advanced structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. Guided waves-based SHM (GWs-SHM) offers an effective solution with its comprehensive coverage, enhanced sensitivity, and real-time monitoring capabilities, addressing the imperative for rapid anomaly detection and fault diagnosis. This study examines the application of GWs-SHM in spacecraft, focusing on the localization of space debris impacts, structural damage assessment, and leak detection. It discusses the challenges faced by spacecraft components and emphasizes the need for sophisticated SHM systems. Recent theoretical and methodological advancements in guided wave modeling and simulation are also reviewed. The paper further explores the integration of GWs-SHM with emerging aerospace technologies, such as space robots, artificial intelligence, multi-sensors data fusion, guided-wave based wireless communication and energy transmission. This work envisions significant advancements in spacecraft safety and operational longevity through the development of cutting-edge GWs-SHM technologies, urging for continuous innovation in sensor technology, algorithm development, and the integration of artificial intelligence for smarter decision-making in the challenging space environment.

航天器的可重复使用性和长期运行强调了对先进结构健康监测（SHM）系统的迫切需要。基于导波的结构健康监测（GWs-SHM）以其全面的覆盖范围、更高的灵敏度和实时监测能力提供了有效的解决方案，解决了快速异常检测和故障诊断的迫切需要。本研究探讨了 GWs-SHM 在航天器中的应用，重点是空间碎片撞击定位、结构损坏评估和泄漏检测。它讨论了航天器组件所面临的挑战，并强调了对复杂的 SHM 系统的需求。论文还回顾了导波建模和仿真在理论和方法上的最新进展。论文进一步探讨了 GWs-SHM 与空间机器人、人工智能、多传感器数据融合、基于导波的无线通信和能量传输等新兴航空航天技术的整合。这项工作设想通过开发尖端的 GWs-SHM 技术，大大提高航天器的安全性和运行寿命，敦促在传感器技术、算法开发和人工智能集成方面不断创新，以便在充满挑战的空间环境中做出更明智的决策。

{"title":"Advancing spacecraft safety and longevity: A review of guided waves-based structural health monitoring","authors":"Sunquan Yu , Kai Luo , Chengguang Fan , Kangjia Fu , Xuesong Wu , Yong Chen , Xiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reusability and prolonged operation of spacecraft underscore the critical need for advanced structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. Guided waves-based SHM (GWs-SHM) offers an effective solution with its comprehensive coverage, enhanced sensitivity, and real-time monitoring capabilities, addressing the imperative for rapid anomaly detection and fault diagnosis. This study examines the application of GWs-SHM in spacecraft, focusing on the localization of space debris impacts, structural damage assessment, and leak detection. It discusses the challenges faced by spacecraft components and emphasizes the need for sophisticated SHM systems. Recent theoretical and methodological advancements in guided wave modeling and simulation are also reviewed. The paper further explores the integration of GWs-SHM with emerging aerospace technologies, such as space robots, artificial intelligence, multi-sensors data fusion, guided-wave based wireless communication and energy transmission. This work envisions significant advancements in spacecraft safety and operational longevity through the development of cutting-edge GWs-SHM technologies, urging for continuous innovation in sensor technology, algorithm development, and the integration of artificial intelligence for smarter decision-making in the challenging space environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110586"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explicit speed-integrated LSTM network for non-stationary gearbox vibration representation and fault detection under varying speed conditions 用于变速条件下非稳态齿轮箱振动表示和故障检测的显式速度积分 LSTM 网络

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110596

Yuejian Chen , Xuemei Liu , Meng Rao , Yong Qin , Zhipeng Wang , Yuanjin Ji

Condition monitoring of the gearbox plays a crucial role in implementing proactive maintenance strategies and minimizing the economic loss of unexpected failures. Gearboxes often operate under variable speed conditions, which makes the collected vibration monitoring signals non-stationary. Existing works did not explore the scientific structures that incorporate speed signals into the long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and thus leave room for improvement at varying speed conditions. To this end, this paper proposes novel explicit speed-integrated LSTM (SI-LSTM) models to enhance the representation accuracy of non-stationary vibration signals and improve gearbox fault detection capability. The SI-LSTM models with three variants are designed to account for the effects of speed variations on vibration signals. In SI-LSTM model 1, the vibration and speed signals are directly merged and input into the LSTM network. In SI-LSTM model 2, the speed signal is integrated into the network before the final LSTM layer. SI-LSTM model 3 is designed with a dedicated LSTM layer for speed signal, and the state outputs of both speed and vibration LSTMs are then merged and input into a final LSTM layer. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on a helical fixed axis gearbox dataset and a planetary gearbox dataset, and finally SI-LSTM model 3 is the best recommended structure. Spectral analysis is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of SI-LSTM model 3. The performance are also compared with four state-of-the-art methods, and the SI-LSTM model 3 achieves the highest AUCs of 0.9998 and 0.9676 and the best vibration representation accuracy on fixed-axis and planetary gearbox datasets, respectively.

齿轮箱的状态监测在实施主动维护策略和最大限度地减少意外故障造成的经济损失方面发挥着至关重要的作用。齿轮箱通常在变速条件下运行，这使得收集到的振动监测信号是非稳态的。现有研究并未探索将速度信号纳入长短期记忆（LSTM）网络的科学结构，因此在变速条件下仍有改进空间。为此，本文提出了新颖的显式速度集成 LSTM（SI-LSTM）模型，以增强对非稳态振动信号的表示精度，提高变速箱故障检测能力。SI-LSTM 模型设计了三种变体，以考虑速度变化对振动信号的影响。在 SI-LSTM 模型 1 中，振动信号和速度信号直接合并并输入 LSTM 网络。在 SI-LSTM 模型 2 中，速度信号在最后的 LSTM 层之前集成到网络中。SI-LSTM 模型 3 为速度信号设计了专门的 LSTM 层，然后将速度和振动 LSTM 的状态输出合并并输入最后的 LSTM 层。在螺旋固定轴齿轮箱数据集和行星齿轮箱数据集上进行了综合实验，最终 SI-LSTM 模型 3 成为最佳推荐结构。光谱分析用于证明 SI-LSTM 模型 3 的有效性。SI-LSTM 模型 3 的 AUC 分别为 0.9998 和 0.9676，在固定轴和行星齿轮箱数据集上的振动表示精度最高。

{"title":"Explicit speed-integrated LSTM network for non-stationary gearbox vibration representation and fault detection under varying speed conditions","authors":"Yuejian Chen , Xuemei Liu , Meng Rao , Yong Qin , Zhipeng Wang , Yuanjin Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Condition monitoring of the gearbox plays a crucial role in implementing proactive maintenance strategies and minimizing the economic loss of unexpected failures. Gearboxes often operate under variable speed conditions, which makes the collected vibration monitoring signals non-stationary. Existing works did not explore the scientific structures that incorporate speed signals into the long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and thus leave room for improvement at varying speed conditions. To this end, this paper proposes novel explicit speed-integrated LSTM (SI-LSTM) models to enhance the representation accuracy of non-stationary vibration signals and improve gearbox fault detection capability. The SI-LSTM models with three variants are designed to account for the effects of speed variations on vibration signals. In SI-LSTM model 1, the vibration and speed signals are directly merged and input into the LSTM network. In SI-LSTM model 2, the speed signal is integrated into the network before the final LSTM layer. SI-LSTM model 3 is designed with a dedicated LSTM layer for speed signal, and the state outputs of both speed and vibration LSTMs are then merged and input into a final LSTM layer. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on a helical fixed axis gearbox dataset and a planetary gearbox dataset, and finally SI-LSTM model 3 is the best recommended structure. Spectral analysis is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of SI-LSTM model 3. The performance are also compared with four state-of-the-art methods, and the SI-LSTM model 3 achieves the highest AUCs of 0.9998 and 0.9676 and the best vibration representation accuracy on fixed-axis and planetary gearbox datasets, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110596"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Urban natural gas pipeline operational vulnerability under the influence of a social spatial distribution structure: A case study of the safety risk patterns in Kunming, China 社会空间分布结构影响下的城市天然气管道运行脆弱性：中国昆明安全风险模式案例研究

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110593

Jiarui Xu , Chunhou Ji , Lihong Yang , Yun Liu , Zhiqiang Xie , Xingfeng Fu , Fengshan Jiang , Mengfan Liao , Lei Zhao

Frequent urban natural gas pipeline accidents pose a serious threat to the safety of people and property in surrounding areas. However, current research on natural gas pipeline risks primarily focuses on evaluating the pipelines themselves, with no established method for assessing the impact of pipeline disasters on surrounding areas. This paper proposes an urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment method that integrates the physical attributes of the pipelines with an analysis of social vulnerability based on urban social spatial distribution. Using urban Point of Interest (POI) data, a social spatial distribution model for potential natural gas pipeline accidents is constructed. The risk of pipeline failure is assessed based on physical vulnerability, while the consequences of failure are evaluated through social vulnerability. This method combines the analysis of physical and social vulnerabilities to achieve a comprehensive urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment. The results identified 68 out of 6148 pipelines in the study area as "double high" pipelines, characterized by high physical vulnerability (relatively high risk pipelines) and high social vulnerability (involving level IV areas). The high risk communities identified in the study area are the Cuihu West Road Community and the Daguan Commercial City Community, highlighting the characteristics of risk distribution. The findings suggest that this study contributes to improving urban resilience to natural gas pipeline incidents, reducing potential economic losses and public impacts, and enhancing urban public safety. It also provides new insights into natural gas pipeline risk assessment and urban public safety research.

频繁发生的城市天然气管道事故对周边地区的人员和财产安全构成了严重威胁。然而，目前对天然气管道风险的研究主要集中在对管道本身的评估上，还没有成熟的方法来评估管道灾害对周边地区的影响。本文提出了一种城市天然气管道风险评估方法，该方法将管道的物理属性与基于城市社会空间分布的社会脆弱性分析相结合。利用城市兴趣点（POI）数据，构建了潜在天然气管道事故的社会空间分布模型。根据物理脆弱性评估管道故障风险，而通过社会脆弱性评估故障后果。这种方法结合了物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性分析，实现了全面的城市天然气管道风险评估。结果发现，在研究区域的 6148 条管道中，有 68 条属于 "双高 "管道，其特点是物理脆弱性高（相对高风险管道），社会脆弱性高（涉及 IV 级区域）。研究区域内确定的高风险社区为翠湖西路社区和大观商业城社区，突出了风险分布的特点。研究结果表明，本研究有助于提高城市应对天然气管道事故的能力，减少潜在的经济损失和公共影响，提高城市公共安全。同时也为天然气管道风险评估和城市公共安全研究提供了新的思路。

{"title":"Urban natural gas pipeline operational vulnerability under the influence of a social spatial distribution structure: A case study of the safety risk patterns in Kunming, China","authors":"Jiarui Xu , Chunhou Ji , Lihong Yang , Yun Liu , Zhiqiang Xie , Xingfeng Fu , Fengshan Jiang , Mengfan Liao , Lei Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Frequent urban natural gas pipeline accidents pose a serious threat to the safety of people and property in surrounding areas. However, current research on natural gas pipeline risks primarily focuses on evaluating the pipelines themselves, with no established method for assessing the impact of pipeline disasters on surrounding areas. This paper proposes an urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment method that integrates the physical attributes of the pipelines with an analysis of social vulnerability based on urban social spatial distribution. Using urban Point of Interest (POI) data, a social spatial distribution model for potential natural gas pipeline accidents is constructed. The risk of pipeline failure is assessed based on physical vulnerability, while the consequences of failure are evaluated through social vulnerability. This method combines the analysis of physical and social vulnerabilities to achieve a comprehensive urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment. The results identified 68 out of 6148 pipelines in the study area as \"double high\" pipelines, characterized by high physical vulnerability (relatively high risk pipelines) and high social vulnerability (involving level IV areas). The high risk communities identified in the study area are the Cuihu West Road Community and the Daguan Commercial City Community, highlighting the characteristics of risk distribution. The findings suggest that this study contributes to improving urban resilience to natural gas pipeline incidents, reducing potential economic losses and public impacts, and enhancing urban public safety. It also provides new insights into natural gas pipeline risk assessment and urban public safety research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110593"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142554007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reliability analysis of IoV-based vehicle monitoring systems subject to cascading probabilistic common cause failures 基于 IoV 的车辆监控系统受级联概率共同原因故障影响的可靠性分析

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110605

Chaonan Wang , Yingxi Lie , Yuchang Mo , Quanlong Guan

As an important application of the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet of Vehicles (IoV)-based vehicle monitoring systems (IVMSs), gathering, processing and communicating traffic and vehicle data, are installed in vehicles and deployed to avoid traffic accidents and ensure road safety. In this paper, the reliability of IVMSs subject to cascading probabilistic common cause failures (CPCCFs) is studied where a common cause (CC) may cause multiple system devices to fail probabilistically and the failures of some devices may further trigger failures of other system devices in a domino manner. Two combinatorial methods are proposed to handle complex cascading effects of directed acyclic graph structure and Hamilton loop structure, respectively. The proposed methods are applicable to any arbitrary time-to-failure distribution of devices and both external and internal CCs are considered. The applications and advantages of the proposed methods are illustrated through an IVMS example. The correctness of the methods is proved by Monte Carlo simulation. The time and space complexity of the methods is also analyzed.

作为物联网（IoT）的一项重要应用，基于车联网（IoV）的车辆监控系统（IVMS）可收集、处理和通信交通和车辆数据，被安装在车辆上，用于避免交通事故和确保道路安全。在这种情况下，一个共同原因（CC）可能会导致多个系统设备发生概率性故障，一些设备的故障可能会以多米诺骨牌的方式进一步引发其他系统设备的故障。本文提出了两种组合方法，分别处理有向无环图结构和汉密尔顿循环结构的复杂级联效应。提出的方法适用于任何任意的设备故障时间分布，并同时考虑了外部和内部 CC。通过一个 IVMS 示例说明了所提方法的应用和优势。这些方法的正确性通过蒙特卡罗模拟得到了证明。此外，还分析了这些方法的时间和空间复杂性。

{"title":"Reliability analysis of IoV-based vehicle monitoring systems subject to cascading probabilistic common cause failures","authors":"Chaonan Wang , Yingxi Lie , Yuchang Mo , Quanlong Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As an important application of the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet of Vehicles (IoV)-based vehicle monitoring systems (IVMSs), gathering, processing and communicating traffic and vehicle data, are installed in vehicles and deployed to avoid traffic accidents and ensure road safety. In this paper, the reliability of IVMSs subject to cascading probabilistic common cause failures (CPCCFs) is studied where a common cause (CC) may cause multiple system devices to fail probabilistically and the failures of some devices may further trigger failures of other system devices in a domino manner. Two combinatorial methods are proposed to handle complex cascading effects of directed acyclic graph structure and Hamilton loop structure, respectively. The proposed methods are applicable to any arbitrary time-to-failure distribution of devices and both external and internal CCs are considered. The applications and advantages of the proposed methods are illustrated through an IVMS example. The correctness of the methods is proved by Monte Carlo simulation. The time and space complexity of the methods is also analyzed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110605"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Team-centered IDAC: Modeling and simulation of operating crew in complex systems - Part 2: Simulation aspects and application 以团队为中心的 IDAC：复杂系统中操作人员的建模与仿真--第 2 部分：仿真方面与应用

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110529

Mandana Azarkhil , Ali Mosleh , Marilia Ramos

Complex systems operations, such as Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), generally require professional operating teams. Factors associated with teamwork, such as inappropriate communication and coordination, are important contributing factors to accidents and unsafe behavior. The impact of crew interactions on team effectiveness and, consequently, on the entire system, has yet to be fully and quantitatively explored in high-risk environments such as NPPs. Since a team is an interactive social system, team-specific issues must be studied and evaluated from a “team perspective”—based on team dynamics and processes. This paper is a part of a two-papers series that presents a simulation-based Team Model for NPP control room operations. Part 1 describes the theoretical fundaments of the model and details its elements. The current paper, Part 2, describes the simulation aspects and a full application of the method to an NPP four-steam generator feedwater system pipe break. It presents how to set up the simulation elements, such as hardware and humans within a team, using MATLAB Simulink. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an NPP four-steam generator feed water system pipe break. The results are discussed and assessed against theoretical and experimental findings.

核电站（NPP）等复杂系统的运行通常需要专业的运行团队。与团队合作相关的因素，如不恰当的沟通和协调，是导致事故和不安全行为的重要因素。在国家核电厂等高风险环境中，机组人员的互动对团队效率的影响，进而对整个系统的影响，还有待全面、定量地探讨。由于团队是一个互动的社会系统，因此必须从 "团队视角"--基于团队动力和流程--来研究和评估团队的具体问题。本文是两篇系列论文中的一篇，介绍了基于模拟的核电站控制室运行团队模型。第 1 部分介绍了该模型的理论基础并详细说明了其要素。本文的第 2 部分介绍了模拟方面的内容，以及该方法在核电站四汽发电机给水系统管道破裂中的全面应用。它介绍了如何使用 MATLAB Simulink 设置模拟要素，如团队中的硬件和人。通过对核电厂四汽发电机给水系统管道破裂的案例研究，对该方法进行了演示。并根据理论和实验结果对结果进行了讨论和评估。

{"title":"Team-centered IDAC: Modeling and simulation of operating crew in complex systems - Part 2: Simulation aspects and application","authors":"Mandana Azarkhil , Ali Mosleh , Marilia Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Complex systems operations, such as Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), generally require professional operating teams. Factors associated with teamwork, such as inappropriate communication and coordination, are important contributing factors to accidents and unsafe behavior. The impact of crew interactions on team effectiveness and, consequently, on the entire system, has yet to be fully and quantitatively explored in high-risk environments such as NPPs. Since a team is an interactive social system, team-specific issues must be studied and evaluated from a “team perspective”—based on team dynamics and processes. This paper is a part of a two-papers series that presents a simulation-based Team Model for NPP control room operations. Part 1 describes the theoretical fundaments of the model and details its elements. The current paper, Part 2, describes the simulation aspects and a full application of the method to an NPP four-steam generator feedwater system pipe break. It presents how to set up the simulation elements, such as hardware and humans within a team, using MATLAB Simulink. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an NPP four-steam generator feed water system pipe break. The results are discussed and assessed against theoretical and experimental findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110529"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seismic risk estimates for reinforced concrete structures with incorporation of corrosion and aftershock 考虑腐蚀和余震因素的钢筋混凝土结构地震风险估算

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110585

Zhou Zhou , Xiaohui Yu , Paolo Gardoni , Kun Ji , Dagang Lu

Numerous reinforced concrete (RC) structures are exposed to aggressive environments, such as chloride, mainshock and aftershock. These environmental and extreme loads have the potential to increase the seismic risks during structure's service life. This study introduces a practical probabilistic methodology to estimate the seismic risk of corroded RC frame subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. In this methodology, a time-variant modeling strategy is used to simulate the geometrical and mechanical properties of structural degraded materials. The Bayesian updating theorem is employed to calibrate the demand models, which are then used to estimate the fragilities and confidence intervals considering the model uncertainties. A Copula-based approach is conducted to generate joint probability of mainshock and aftershock intensities and the seismic hazard of the mainshock-aftershock scenario. Finally, the seismic risk and associated confidence intervals are estimated by integrating over all mainshock and aftershock intensities levels. A typical corroded RC frame structure is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results show that the contribution of corrosion and aftershock would lead a 10 times higher seismic risks compared to scenarios considering only mainshock damage. It is necessary to account for the influence of both corrosion and aftershock in seismic design.

许多钢筋混凝土（RC）结构都暴露在腐蚀性环境中，如氯化物、主震和余震。这些环境荷载和极端荷载有可能增加结构在使用寿命期间的地震风险。本研究介绍了一种实用的概率方法，用于估算受主震-余震序列影响的腐蚀 RC 框架的地震风险。该方法采用时变建模策略来模拟结构退化材料的几何和力学性能。贝叶斯更新定理用于校准需求模型，然后用于估计脆性和考虑模型不确定性的置信区间。采用基于 Copula 的方法生成主震和余震强度的联合概率，以及主震-余震情况下的地震危害。最后，通过对所有主震和余震烈度水平进行积分，估算出地震风险和相关置信区间。一个典型的腐蚀 RC 框架结构被用来说明所提出的方法。结果表明，与只考虑主震破坏的情况相比，腐蚀和余震的影响会导致地震风险增加 10 倍。有必要在抗震设计中考虑腐蚀和余震的影响。

{"title":"Seismic risk estimates for reinforced concrete structures with incorporation of corrosion and aftershock","authors":"Zhou Zhou , Xiaohui Yu , Paolo Gardoni , Kun Ji , Dagang Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Numerous reinforced concrete (RC) structures are exposed to aggressive environments, such as chloride, mainshock and aftershock. These environmental and extreme loads have the potential to increase the seismic risks during structure's service life. This study introduces a practical probabilistic methodology to estimate the seismic risk of corroded RC frame subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. In this methodology, a time-variant modeling strategy is used to simulate the geometrical and mechanical properties of structural degraded materials. The Bayesian updating theorem is employed to calibrate the demand models, which are then used to estimate the fragilities and confidence intervals considering the model uncertainties. A Copula-based approach is conducted to generate joint probability of mainshock and aftershock intensities and the seismic hazard of the mainshock-aftershock scenario. Finally, the seismic risk and associated confidence intervals are estimated by integrating over all mainshock and aftershock intensities levels. A typical corroded RC frame structure is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results show that the contribution of corrosion and aftershock would lead a 10 times higher seismic risks compared to scenarios considering only mainshock damage. It is necessary to account for the influence of both corrosion and aftershock in seismic design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110585"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0