Pub Date : 2024-03-19DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103612
Qishui Yao , Liang Dai , Jiachang Tang , Haotian Wu , Tao Liu
An efficient and high-precision method is proposed for the analysis and evaluation of high-speed rolling bearing lubrication reliability based on a probability box (p-box) model. This method expands the application of mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties analysis within the realm of bearing lubrication reliability. Initially, the method establishes a reliability model for high-speed rolling bearing lubrication, taking into account the shear thermal effect through the analytical solution of a Γубин-type entrance zone. Subsequently, the uncertainty surrounding lubrication parameters under high-speed conditions is examined, with its mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties accurately depicted by using the p-box model. Furthermore, an effective and precise method for analyzing the reliability of rolling bearing lubrication is introduced based on the p-box model, in which the optimization model involved is efficiently solved using a decoupling method. Finally, lubrication reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty levels are conducted for high-speed rolling bearings in this study. The research results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and efficiency.
{"title":"High-speed rolling bearing lubrication reliability analysis based on probability box model","authors":"Qishui Yao , Liang Dai , Jiachang Tang , Haotian Wu , Tao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An efficient and high-precision method is proposed for the analysis and evaluation of high-speed rolling bearing lubrication reliability based on a probability box (p-box) model. This method expands the application of mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties analysis within the realm of bearing lubrication reliability. Initially, the method establishes a reliability model for high-speed rolling bearing lubrication, taking into account the shear thermal effect through the analytical solution of a Γубин-type entrance zone. Subsequently, the uncertainty surrounding lubrication parameters under high-speed conditions is examined, with its mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties accurately depicted by using the p-box model. Furthermore, an effective and precise method for analyzing the reliability of rolling bearing lubrication is introduced based on the p-box model, in which the optimization model involved is efficiently solved using a decoupling method. Finally, lubrication reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty levels are conducted for high-speed rolling bearings in this study. The research results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and efficiency.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103612"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-15DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103586
Vincent Renaud, Marwan Al Heib
Slope stability calculation depends on the soil properties (cohesion and the friction angle) of the soil. Heterogeneous terrains are frequently observed in civil and mining projects where the properties are highly spatially variable. Based on a real data from case studies, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the slope stability of highly heterogeneous terrains with a very high coefficient of variation (COV) of the cohesion distribution. The existing deterministic and probabilistic approaches for calculating slope stability lack the capability to effectively consider the significant heterogeneity present in the terrain The objective of the paper is to develop a new bounded interval distribution having a COV that is as high (>150%) as the COV of the cohesion distribution The results obtained with this new distribution are compared to 4 other semi-infinite distributions. To consider the correlation between cohesion and the friction angle, a specific formulation was developed to generate friction angles varying between fixed minimum and maximum limits and having the desired correlation coefficient, mean, and standard deviation. The new cohesion and friction angle distributions were incorporated and tested in a probabilistic numerical model. The new distribution can presently be applied to geotechnical studies for terrains and heterogenous materials with properties exhibiting high spatial variability.
{"title":"Probabilistic slope stability analysis: A novel distribution for soils exhibiting highly variable spatial properties","authors":"Vincent Renaud, Marwan Al Heib","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Slope stability calculation depends on the soil properties (cohesion and the friction angle) of the soil. Heterogeneous terrains are frequently observed in civil and mining projects where the properties are highly spatially variable. Based on a real data from case studies, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the slope stability of highly heterogeneous terrains with a very high coefficient of variation (COV) of the cohesion distribution. The existing deterministic and probabilistic approaches for calculating slope stability lack the capability to effectively consider the significant heterogeneity present in the terrain The objective of the paper is to develop a new bounded interval distribution having a COV that is as high (>150%) as the COV of the cohesion distribution The results obtained with this new distribution are compared to 4 other semi-infinite distributions. To consider the correlation between cohesion and the friction angle, a specific formulation was developed to generate friction angles varying between fixed minimum and maximum limits and having the desired correlation coefficient, mean, and standard deviation. The new cohesion and friction angle distributions were incorporated and tested in a probabilistic numerical model. The new distribution can presently be applied to geotechnical studies for terrains and heterogenous materials with properties exhibiting high spatial variability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103586"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140191059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-12DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103595
Nhu Son Doan , Huu-Ba Dinh
Engineering problems are mainly defined in implicit processes; hence, the fully probabilistic analyses, e.g., Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), are expensive to implement. In practice, two approaches to overcome the issues are either reducing the size of simulations or developing surrogate models for actual problems. The latter does not sacrifice the size of MCS and requires less insight into probabilistic calculation; hence, it is preferable to most engineers. This study proposes an efficient framework to develop reliable and accurate surrogate models by considering data at the limit state margins (LS data). Effects of involving LS data in the training process and performances of the proposed metamodels are investigated for most issues relating to reliability analyses, including nonlinear performance functions, multiple failure modes, and implicitly defined problems. Two machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks and the Gaussian process, are employed to prove the ability of the proposed method. Investigations reveal that the limit state data plays a vital role in developing accurate surrogate models for reliability analyses, and accumulating them into the training dataset helps quickly construct accurate metamodels. This work contributes a practical framework for reliability analyses because the LS data can be detected easily without insight into probabilistic calculations.
工程问题主要是在隐含过程中定义的;因此,完全概率分析,如蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS),实施起来非常昂贵。在实践中,有两种方法可以解决这个问题,一是缩小模拟规模,二是开发实际问题的替代模型。后者不会牺牲 MCS 的大小,而且对概率计算的深入了解要求较低;因此,大多数工程师更倾向于后者。本研究提出了一个有效的框架,通过考虑极限状态边缘数据(LS 数据)来开发可靠、准确的代用模型。针对与可靠性分析有关的大多数问题,包括非线性性能函数、多重失效模式和隐式定义问题,研究了在训练过程中考虑 LS 数据的效果以及所建议的元模型的性能。为了证明所提方法的能力,采用了两种机器学习算法,包括人工神经网络和高斯过程。研究表明,极限状态数据在建立准确的可靠性分析代用模型方面发挥着至关重要的作用,将这些数据积累到训练数据集中有助于快速构建准确的元模型。这项工作为可靠性分析提供了一个实用框架,因为无需深入了解概率计算,就能轻松检测 LS 数据。
{"title":"Effects of limit state data on constructing accurate surrogate models for structural reliability analyses","authors":"Nhu Son Doan , Huu-Ba Dinh","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Engineering problems are mainly defined in implicit processes; hence, the fully probabilistic analyses, e.g., Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), are expensive to implement. In practice, two approaches to overcome the issues are either reducing the size of simulations or developing surrogate models for actual problems. The latter does not sacrifice the size of MCS and requires less insight into probabilistic calculation; hence, it is preferable to most engineers. This study proposes an efficient framework to develop reliable and accurate surrogate models by considering data at the limit state margins (LS data). Effects of involving LS data in the training process and performances of the proposed metamodels are investigated for most issues relating to reliability analyses, including nonlinear performance functions, multiple failure modes, and implicitly defined problems. Two machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks and the Gaussian process, are employed to prove the ability of the proposed method. Investigations reveal that the limit state data plays a vital role in developing accurate surrogate models for reliability analyses, and accumulating them into the training dataset helps quickly construct accurate metamodels. This work contributes a practical framework for reliability analyses because the LS data can be detected easily without insight into probabilistic calculations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103595"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-12DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103597
Wanying Yun , Fengyuan Li , Xiangming Chen , Zhe Wang
To efficiently estimate the main effects and total effects of uncertain distribution parameters on the uncertainty of failure probability, we construct single-loop estimation formulas by introducing auxiliary variables through the equal probability transformation. This approach circumvents the original nested triple-loop process. For generating samples used in the derived single-loop estimation formulas, direct Monte Carlo simulation can be employed. To reduce the number of samples in Monte Carlo simulation, the important sampling technique can be integrated into the proposed single-loop estimation formulas. Additionally, to enhance the efficiency of identifying the states (failure or safety) of all used samples, an adaptive Kriging model can be introduced. Subsequently, the adaptive Kriging model coupled with Monte Carlo simulation, and the adaptive Kriging model coupled with the importance sampling technique, are integrated into the derived single-loop formulas to concurrently and efficiently estimate the main effects and total effects of uncertain distribution parameters. The results of three case studies validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.
{"title":"Efficient metamodel-based importance sampling coupled with single-loop estimation method for parameter global reliability sensitivity analysis","authors":"Wanying Yun , Fengyuan Li , Xiangming Chen , Zhe Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To efficiently estimate the main effects and total effects of uncertain distribution parameters on the uncertainty of failure probability, we construct single-loop estimation formulas by introducing auxiliary variables through the equal probability transformation. This approach circumvents the original nested triple-loop process. For generating samples used in the derived single-loop estimation formulas, direct Monte Carlo simulation can be employed. To reduce the number of samples in Monte Carlo simulation, the important sampling technique can be integrated into the proposed single-loop estimation formulas. Additionally, to enhance the efficiency of identifying the states (failure or safety) of all used samples, an adaptive Kriging model can be introduced. Subsequently, the adaptive Kriging model coupled with Monte Carlo simulation, and the adaptive Kriging model coupled with the importance sampling technique, are integrated into the derived single-loop formulas to concurrently and efficiently estimate the main effects and total effects of uncertain distribution parameters. The results of three case studies validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103597"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-12DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103598
Xinchen Zhuang, Xin Li, Chang Liu, Tianxiang Yu, Bifeng Song
Time-dependent kinematic reliability of a motion mechanism is critical for optimizing its operational performance. Dynamic factors, including material deterioration and wear in the joints, are disregarded in the prior study. As such, the envelope method is employed to undertake time-dependent kinematic reliability analysis of motion mechanisms, accounting for dynamic factors. Firstly, a decoupling strategy is proposed for decoupling the time-dependent motion error stemming from motion input and the dynamic factors. Thus, the kinematic reliability is delineated into two distinct temporal parameter-dependent issues. Subsequently, the envelope function is extended to solve the kinematic reliability. The expansion temporal points determination function (ETPDF) in the envelope function is approximated using a first-order method coupled with an active learning Kriging mode. After the expansion temporal points are found, the time-dependent reliability can be efficiently calculated via a multivariate Gaussian integral. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method is verified by means of a 4-bar function generating mechanism.
{"title":"Time-dependent kinematic reliability of motion mechanisms with dynamic factors","authors":"Xinchen Zhuang, Xin Li, Chang Liu, Tianxiang Yu, Bifeng Song","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Time-dependent kinematic reliability of a motion mechanism is critical for optimizing its operational performance. Dynamic factors, including material deterioration and wear in the joints, are disregarded in the prior study. As such, the envelope method is employed to undertake time-dependent kinematic reliability analysis of motion mechanisms, accounting for dynamic factors. Firstly, a decoupling strategy is proposed for decoupling the time-dependent motion error stemming from motion input and the dynamic factors. Thus, the kinematic reliability is delineated into two distinct temporal parameter-dependent issues. Subsequently, the envelope function is extended to solve the kinematic reliability. The expansion temporal points determination function (ETPDF) in the envelope function is approximated using a first-order method coupled with an active learning Kriging mode. After the expansion temporal points are found, the time-dependent reliability can be efficiently calculated via a multivariate Gaussian integral. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method is verified by means of a 4-bar function generating mechanism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103598"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103594
Xi Wang , Siyuan Xing , Jun Jiang , Ling Hong , Jian-Qiao Sun
This paper extends the recently developed method of separable Gaussian neural networks (SGNN) to obtain solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov (FPK) equation in high-dimensional state space. Several challenges when extending SGNN to high-dimensional state space are addressed including proper definition of domain for placing Gaussian neurons and region for data sampling, and numerical integration issue of evaluating marginal probability density functions. Three benchmark nonlinear dynamic systems with increasing complexity and dimension are examined with the SGNN method. In particular, the steady-state probability density of the response is obtained with the SGNN method and compared with the results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations. It should be pointed out that some solutions of high-dimensional FPK equations for nonlinear dynamic systems would be very difficult to obtain without SGNN.
{"title":"Separable Gaussian neural networks for high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems","authors":"Xi Wang , Siyuan Xing , Jun Jiang , Ling Hong , Jian-Qiao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper extends the recently developed method of separable Gaussian neural networks (SGNN) to obtain solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov (FPK) equation in high-dimensional state space. Several challenges when extending SGNN to high-dimensional state space are addressed including proper definition of domain for placing Gaussian neurons and region for data sampling, and numerical integration issue of evaluating marginal probability density functions. Three benchmark nonlinear dynamic systems with increasing complexity and dimension are examined with the SGNN method. In particular, the steady-state probability density of the response is obtained with the SGNN method and compared with the results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations. It should be pointed out that some solutions of high-dimensional FPK equations for nonlinear dynamic systems would be very difficult to obtain without SGNN.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103594"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140113421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103591
Hong Sun , Yuanying Qiu , Jing Li , Jin Bai , Ming Peng
Monte Carlo numerical simulations for generating stationary Gaussian random time-domain signal samples fulfil an important role in random fatigue life prediction. Control parameters such as the random seed, the sampling frequency and the number of sampling points in the numerical simulations have significant effects on the time-domain random fatigue life. In this paper, the effects are investigated systematically by utilizing commonly used power spectrum samples and engineering materials, and so a new method for optimizing the control parameter values is proposed. The proposed method solves the critical problem found in many papers that the relative error between the frequency-domain fatigue life and the time-domain fatigue life increases with the slope K of the S–N curve. Furthermore, it observably reduces the sampling variability of time-domain fatigue life for the large slope K, which will help the related researchers to establish better frequency-domain models for fatigue life prediction by using the time-domain fatigue life values as standard data.
{"title":"A method to reduce the sampling variability of time-domain fatigue life by optimizing parameters in Monte Carlo simulations","authors":"Hong Sun , Yuanying Qiu , Jing Li , Jin Bai , Ming Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Monte Carlo numerical simulations for generating stationary Gaussian random time-domain signal samples fulfil an important role in random fatigue life prediction. Control parameters such as the random seed, the sampling frequency and the number of sampling points in the numerical simulations have significant effects on the time-domain random fatigue life. In this paper, the effects are investigated systematically by utilizing commonly used power spectrum samples and engineering materials, and so a new method for optimizing the control parameter values is proposed. The proposed method solves the critical problem found in many papers that the relative error between the frequency-domain fatigue life and the time-domain fatigue life increases with the slope <em>K</em> of the <em>S–N</em> curve. Furthermore, it observably reduces the sampling variability of time-domain fatigue life for the large slope <em>K</em>, which will help the related researchers to establish better frequency-domain models for fatigue life prediction by using the time-domain fatigue life values as standard data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103591"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139923099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103587
Tengfei Wang , Jinsong Zhou , Wenjing Sun , Dao Gong , Kai Zhou , Zhanfei Zhang , Zhixin Liu , Guoshun Li
The OOR (out-of-roundness) wheel is one of the main excitation sources causing vehicle vibration. However, the OOR wheel occurs randomly, indicating that the vibration behavior of a vehicle cannot be comprehensively evaluated using a deterministic approach. Thus, a probability analysis framework is proposed to obtain vehicle vibration characteristics while considering the randomness of the OOR wheel. The probability model of the random OOR wheel is derived by reducing the high-dimensional variables into a few independent variables of the radius, amplitude, and phase. Then, the vertical vehicle-track coupled system with OOR wheels is modelled. A DPIM (direct probability integral method) is further developed to analyze the evolution of excitation to response probabilities. Finally, the statistics of the random vibration of the vehicle are calculated. The proposed framework is verified using a numerical case. Results show that the PDF (probability density function) shape of the vehicle random vibration, induced by the Gaussian-distributed OOR wheel, deviates from the Gaussian distribution due to the nonlinear wheel/rail contact force. Instead, it exhibits a right-skewed shape, significantly impacting the dynamic performance. As the mean or coefficient of variation of the OOR wheel amplitude increases linearly, the reliability of the vehicle Sperling index experiences a quadratic or double-sloping decrease. Consequently, a maintenance threshold for OOR wheel amplitudes is given based on reliability considerations. Compared to Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed framework offers a computational efficiency improvement of at least one order of magnitude.
OOR(失圆)车轮是引起车辆振动的主要激励源之一。然而,OOR 车轮是随机出现的,这表明无法使用确定性方法对车辆的振动行为进行全面评估。因此,本文提出了一种概率分析框架,在考虑 OOR 车轮随机性的同时获取车辆振动特性。通过将高维变量简化为半径、振幅和相位等几个独立变量,得出了随机 OOR 车轮的概率模型。然后,对带有 OOR 轮的垂直车辆-轨道耦合系统进行建模。进一步开发了 DPIM(直接概率积分法)来分析激励到响应概率的演变。最后,计算车辆随机振动的统计数据。利用数值案例对所提出的框架进行了验证。结果表明,由高斯分布的 OOR 车轮诱发的车辆随机振动的 PDF(概率密度函数)形状偏离了高斯分布,这是由于车轮/轨道接触力的非线性造成的。相反,它呈现出右偏的形状,对动态性能产生了重大影响。当 OOR 轮振幅的平均值或变异系数线性增加时,车辆 Sperling 指数的可靠性会出现二次或双斜率下降。因此,基于可靠性考虑,给出了 OOR 车轮振幅的维护阈值。与蒙特卡罗模拟相比,所提出的框架至少提高了一个数量级的计算效率。
{"title":"A DPIM-based probability analysis framework to obtain railway vehicle vibration characteristics considering the randomness of OOR wheel","authors":"Tengfei Wang , Jinsong Zhou , Wenjing Sun , Dao Gong , Kai Zhou , Zhanfei Zhang , Zhixin Liu , Guoshun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The OOR (out-of-roundness) wheel is one of the main excitation sources causing vehicle vibration. However, the OOR wheel occurs randomly, indicating that the vibration behavior of a vehicle cannot be comprehensively evaluated using a deterministic approach. Thus, a probability analysis framework is proposed to obtain vehicle vibration characteristics while considering the randomness of the OOR wheel. The probability model of the random OOR wheel is derived by reducing the high-dimensional variables into a few independent variables of the radius, amplitude, and phase. Then, the vertical vehicle-track coupled system with OOR wheels is modelled. A DPIM (direct probability integral method) is further developed to analyze the evolution of excitation to response probabilities. Finally, the statistics of the random vibration of the vehicle are calculated. The proposed framework is verified using a numerical case. Results show that the PDF (probability density function) shape of the vehicle random vibration, induced by the Gaussian-distributed OOR wheel, deviates from the Gaussian distribution due to the nonlinear wheel/rail contact force. Instead, it exhibits a right-skewed shape, significantly impacting the dynamic performance. As the mean or coefficient of variation of the OOR wheel amplitude increases linearly, the reliability of the vehicle Sperling index experiences a quadratic or double-sloping decrease. Consequently, a maintenance threshold for OOR wheel amplitudes is given based on reliability considerations. Compared to Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed framework offers a computational efficiency improvement of at least one order of magnitude.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103587"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139992411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103580
Tong Zhou , Tong Guo , You Dong , Yongbo Peng
To address the substantial computational burden associated with probability density evolution method (PDEM) in structural reliability analysis, this study proposes a novel look-ahead learning function named stepwise truncated variance reduction (STVR), integrating polynomial chaos Kriging (PCK) and PDEM. Three key features of STVR are highlighted. First, it enables quantifying the maximum reduction in predictive errors of PCK within the regions of interest (ROI) when adding a new point. Second, closed-form expression for STVR is derived through Kriging update formulas, eliminating the need for computationally intensive Gauss–Hermite quadrature or extensive conditional simulations of PCK. Third, a dynamic adjustment procedure is proposed for the probability level-related parameter in STVR, with the aim of achieving a good balance between the exploitation and exploration of ROI during the sequential experimental design process. The performance of STVR is demonstrated through two benchmark analytical functions and three numerical examples of varying complexity. Results indicate that the dynamic adjustment procedure for the probability level-related parameter in STVR outperforms the empirical setting of a minor value. Then, STVR proves more advantageous than existing pointwise and look-ahead learning functions, particularly in addressing complex dynamic reliability problems.
{"title":"Structural reliability analysis based on probability density evolution method and stepwise truncated variance reduction","authors":"Tong Zhou , Tong Guo , You Dong , Yongbo Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To address the substantial computational burden associated with probability density evolution method (PDEM) in structural reliability analysis<span>, this study proposes a novel look-ahead learning function named stepwise truncated variance reduction (STVR), integrating polynomial chaos Kriging (PCK) and PDEM. Three key features of STVR are highlighted. First, it enables quantifying the maximum reduction in predictive errors of PCK within the regions of interest (ROI) when adding a new point. Second, closed-form expression for STVR is derived through Kriging update formulas, eliminating the need for computationally intensive Gauss–Hermite quadrature or extensive conditional simulations of PCK. Third, a dynamic adjustment procedure is proposed for the probability level-related parameter in STVR, with the aim of achieving a good balance between the exploitation and exploration of ROI during the sequential experimental design process. The performance of STVR is demonstrated through two benchmark analytical functions and three numerical examples of varying complexity. Results indicate that the dynamic adjustment procedure for the probability level-related parameter in STVR outperforms the empirical setting of a minor value. Then, STVR proves more advantageous than existing pointwise and look-ahead learning functions, particularly in addressing complex dynamic reliability problems.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103580"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139471262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103583
Kaiming Luo , Xuhui He , Haiquan Jing
This paper presents a framework for robust topology optimization of bridges under random traffic loading. Traffic loading is simulated using a stream of random moving loads parameterized by their masses, speeds, directions, and arrival times. The stochastic reduced-order model approach is combined with the equivalent static load method to achieve uncertainty-informed dynamic response topology optimization. The stochastic reduced-order model approach propagates uncertainty and reduces problem dimension, whereas the equivalent static load method is employed for dynamic response topology optimization. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization framework is demonstrated using several numerical examples. The proposed framework is found to be effective in optimizing structures under traffic loading, making it a promising solution for the topological design of bridges.
{"title":"Topology optimization of bridges under random traffic loading using stochastic reduced-order models","authors":"Kaiming Luo , Xuhui He , Haiquan Jing","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a framework for robust topology optimization of bridges under random traffic loading. Traffic loading is simulated using a stream of random moving loads parameterized by their masses, speeds, directions, and arrival times. The stochastic reduced-order model approach is combined with the equivalent static load method to achieve uncertainty-informed dynamic response topology optimization. The stochastic reduced-order model approach propagates uncertainty and reduces problem dimension, whereas the equivalent static load method is employed for dynamic response topology optimization. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization framework is demonstrated using several numerical examples. The proposed framework is found to be effective in optimizing structures under traffic loading, making it a promising solution for the topological design of bridges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103583"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139554314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}