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Improved monthly runoff time series prediction using the CABES-LSTM mixture model based on CEEMDAN-VMD decomposition 利用基于 CEEMDAN-VMD 分解的 CABES-LSTM 混合模型改进月径流时间序列预测
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.216
Dong-mei Xu, An-dong Liao, Wenchuan Wang, Wei-can Tian, Hong-fei Zang
Accurate runoff prediction is vital in optimizing reservoir scheduling, efficiently managing water resources, and ensuring the effective utilization of water resources. In this paper, a hybrid prediction model combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, variational mode decomposition, CABES, and long short-term memory network (CEEMDAN-VMD-CABES-LSTM) is proposed. Firstly, CEEMDAN is used to decompose the original data, and the high-frequency component obtained from the CEEMDAN decomposition is decomposed using VMD. Then, each component is input into the LSTM optimized by CABES for prediction. Finally, the results of individual component predictions are combined and reconstructed to produce the monthly runoff predictions. The hybrid model is employed to predict the monthly runoff at the Xiajiang hydrological station and the Yingluoxia hydrological station. A comprehensive comparison is conducted with other models including BP, LSTM, SSA-LSTM, bald eagle search (BES)-LSTM, CABES-LSTM, CEEMDAN-CABES-LSTM, and VMD-CABES-LSTM. The assessment of each model's prediction performance uses four evaluation indexes. Results reveal that the CEEMDAN-VMD-CABES-LSTM model showcased the highest forecast accuracy among all the models evaluated. Compared with the single LSTM, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the Xiajiang hydrological station decreased by 71.09 and 65.26%, respectively, and the RMSE and MAPE of the Yingluoxia hydrological station decreased by 65.13 and 40.42%, respectively. The R and Nash efficiency coefficient (NSEC) values obtained for both sites are near 1.
准确的径流预测对于优化水库调度、高效管理水资源和确保水资源的有效利用至关重要。本文提出了一种将完全集合经验模式分解与自适应噪声、变异模式分解、CABES 和长短期记忆网络(CEEMDAN-VMD-CABES-LSTM)相结合的混合预测模型。首先,使用 CEEMDAN 对原始数据进行分解,然后使用 VMD 对 CEEMDAN 分解得到的高频分量进行分解。然后,将每个分量输入由 CABES 优化的 LSTM 进行预测。最后,将各个分量的预测结果进行组合和重构,得出月径流预测结果。混合模型用于预测峡江水文站和英洛峡水文站的月径流量。与其他模型进行了综合比较,包括 BP、LSTM、SSA-LSTM、秃鹰搜索(BES)-LSTM、CABES-LSTM、CEEMDAN-CABES-LSTM 和 VMD-CABES-LSTM。对每个模型预测性能的评估采用了四项评价指标。结果显示,在所有评估模型中,CEEMDAN-VMD-CABES-LSTM 模型的预测准确率最高。与单一 LSTM 相比,峡江水文站的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别降低了 71.09% 和 65.26%,英洛峡水文站的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别降低了 65.13% 和 40.42%。两个站点的 R 值和纳什效率系数(NSEC)均接近 1。
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引用次数: 0
A robust simulator of pressure-dependent consumption in Python 用 Python 语言模拟压力消耗的鲁棒模拟器
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.218
Camille Chambon, O. Piller, I. Mortazavi
Modeling of pressure-dependent users’ consumption is mandatory to simulate accurately the hydraulics of water distribution networks (WDNs). Several software solutions already exist for this purpose, but none of them actually permits the easy integration and test of new physical processes. In this paper, we propose a new Python simulator that implements a state-of-the-art pressure-dependent model (PDM) of users’ consumptions based on the Wagner’s pressure–outflow relationship (POR). We tested our simulator on eight large and complex WDNs, for different levels of users’ demands. The results show similar precision and efficiency as the ones obtained by the authors of the original model with their MATLAB implementation. Moreover, in case of fully satisfied users’ demands, our simulator provides same results as EPANET 2.0 in comparable computational times. Finally, our simulator is integrated into the open-source, collaborative, multi-platform, and Git versioned Python framework OOPNET (Object-Oriented Python framework for water distribution NETworks analyses); thus, it can be easily reused and/or extended by a large community of WDN modelers. All this work represents a preliminary step before the incorporation of new processes such as valves, pumps, and pressure-dependent background leakage outflows.
要准确模拟配水管网(WDN)的水力学,就必须建立与压力相关的用户用水量模型。目前已经有几种软件可以实现这一目的,但没有一种软件可以轻松集成和测试新的物理过程。在本文中,我们提出了一个新的 Python 模拟器,该模拟器基于瓦格纳压力-流量关系(POR),实现了最先进的用户消耗压力依赖模型(PDM)。我们在八个大型复杂 WDN 上测试了我们的模拟器,测试了不同级别的用户需求。测试结果表明,模拟器的精度和效率与原始模型作者通过 MATLAB 实现的结果相似。此外,在完全满足用户需求的情况下,我们的模拟器在可比计算时间内提供了与 EPANET 2.0 相同的结果。最后,我们的模拟器集成到了开源、协作、多平台和 Git 版本的 Python 框架 OOPNET(面向对象的 Python 框架,用于配水网络分析)中;因此,WDN 建模人员可以轻松地重复使用和/或扩展该框架。所有这些工作都是在纳入阀门、水泵和与压力相关的背景渗漏流等新流程之前的初步工作。
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引用次数: 0
Enhanced forecasting of multi-step ahead daily soil temperature using advanced hybrid vote algorithm-based tree models 使用先进的混合投票算法的树模型增强了多步提前日土壤温度的预测
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.188
Javad Hatamiafkoueieh, Salim Heddam, Saeed Khoshtinat, Solmaz Khazaei, Abdol-Baset Osmani, Ebrahim Nohani, Mohammad Kiomarzi, Ehsan Sharafi, John Tiefenbacher
Abstract In this study, the vote algorithm used to improve the performances of three machine-learning models including M5Prime (M5P), random forest (RF), and random tree (RT) is developed (i.e. V-M5P, V-RF, and V-RT). Developed models were tested for forecasting soil temperature (TS) at 1, 2, and 3 days ahead at depths of 5 and 50 cm. All models were developed using different climatic variables, including mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures; sunshine hours; evaporation; and solar radiation, which were evaluated. Correlation coefficients of 0.95 for the V-M5P model, 0.95 for the V-RF model, and 0.91 for the V-RT model were recorded for both 1- and 2-day ahead forecasting at a depth of 5 cm. For 3-day ahead forecasting, V-RF was the superior model with Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) values of 0.85, compared V-M5P's value of 0.81 and V-RT's value of 0.81. The results at a depth of 5 cm indicate that V-RT was the least effective model. At a depth of 50 cm, forecasted TsS was in good agreement with measurements, and the V-RF was slightly superior. Among the limitations of the current work is that the models were unable to improve their performances by increasing the forecasting horizon.
摘要本文提出了一种用于提高M5Prime (M5P)、随机森林(RF)和随机树(RT)三种机器学习模型(即V-M5P、V-RF和V-RT)性能的投票算法。开发的模型用于预测5和50厘米深度1、2和3天的土壤温度(TS)。所有模型都使用了不同的气候变量,包括平均、最低和最高气温;阳光小时;蒸发;还有太阳辐射,我们已经评估过了。在水深为5 cm的1天和2天预报中,V-M5P模型的相关系数为0.95,V-RF模型的相关系数为0.95,V-RT模型的相关系数为0.91。对于3天预报,V-RF模型的纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)为0.85,V-M5P模型的NSE为0.81,V-RT模型的NSE为0.81。在5 cm深度处的结果表明,V-RT是效果最差的模型。在深度为50 cm时,预测的TsS与测量值吻合较好,V-RF略好。当前工作的局限性之一是模型不能通过增加预测范围来提高其性能。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of maximum scour depth in river bends by the Stacking model 用堆积模型预测河湾最大冲刷深度
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.177
Junfeng Chen, Xiaoquan Zhou, Lirong Xiao, Yuhang Huang
Abstract The accurate prediction of maximum erosion depth in riverbeds is crucial for early protection of bank slopes. In this study, K-means clustering analysis was used for outlier identification and feature selection, resulting in Plan 1 with six influential features. Plan 2 included features selected by existing methods. Regression models were built using Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression (RF Regression), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting on sample data from Plan 1 and Plan 2. To enhance accuracy, a Stacking method with a feed-forward neural network was introduced as the meta-learner. Model performance was evaluated using root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and R2 coefficients. The results demonstrate that the performance of the three models in Plan 1 outperformed that of Plan 2, with improvements in R2 values of 0.0025, 0.0423, and 0.0205, respectively. Among the three regression models in Plan 1, RF Regression performs the best with an R2 value of 0.9149 but still lower than the 0.9389 achieved by the Stacking fusion model. Compared to the existing formulas, the Stacking model exhibits superior predictive performance. This study verifies the effectiveness of combining clustering analysis, feature selection, and the Stacking method in predicting maximum scour depth in bends, providing a novel approach for bank protection design.
准确预测河床最大侵蚀深度对岸坡的早期防护至关重要。本研究采用K-means聚类分析进行离群点识别和特征选择,得到了包含6个影响特征的Plan 1。方案2包括由现有方法选择的功能。采用支持向量回归、随机森林回归(RF Regression)和极端梯度增强(eXtreme Gradient Boosting)对计划1和计划2的样本数据建立回归模型。为了提高准确率,引入了一种前馈神经网络叠加方法作为元学习器。使用均方根误差、平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差和R2系数来评估模型的性能。结果表明,方案1中三个模型的性能优于方案2,R2分别提高了0.0025、0.0423和0.0205。在方案1的三种回归模型中,RF regression表现最好,R2值为0.9149,但仍低于Stacking融合模型的0.9389。与已有的预测公式相比,叠加模型具有更好的预测性能。该研究验证了聚类分析、特征选择和堆垛法相结合预测弯道最大冲刷深度的有效性,为堤防设计提供了一种新的方法。
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引用次数: 0
F28: a novel coupling strategy for 1D/2D hydraulic models for flood risk assessment of the Mekong Delta [28]一种用于湄公河三角洲洪水风险评估的一维/二维水力模型耦合策略
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.108
Giang Song Le, Long Thanh Tran, Loc Huu Ho, Edward Park
Abstract Coupling models of different dimensions is one of the most important yet under-represented challenges. This paper introduces a new modeling strategy to streamline a more flexible and effective integrated one-dimensional (1D)/two-dimensional (2D) model for floodplains along lowland rivers. The 1D model, utilizing the finite volume method, solves the Saint–Venant equations, while the 2D mesh employs unstructured quadrilateral elements. The two strategies couple the 1D/2D models: direct 1D/2D connection by the law of mass conservation at supernode, and lateral 1D/2D model connection by spillways at riverbank. The coupling strategy in F28 guarantees the water balance and the conservation of momentum at the integrated 1D/2D nodes. The model was applied to the Mekong Delta to address the capacity of hydrodynamic simulations integrating various water infrastructures. Results showed that the developed model has a strong potential to be applied to other lowland rivers worldwide with complex infrastructures.
摘要不同维度的耦合模型是最重要但尚未得到充分体现的挑战之一。本文介绍了一种新的建模策略,以简化一个更灵活有效的沿低地河流洪泛平原的一维/二维综合模型。一维模型采用有限体积法求解Saint-Venant方程,二维网格采用非结构化四边形单元。两种策略耦合了一维/二维模型:通过超节点质量守恒定律直接连接一维/二维模型,以及通过河岸溢洪道横向连接一维/二维模型。F28中的耦合策略保证了一维/二维积分节点的水分平衡和动量守恒。将该模型应用于湄公河三角洲,以解决整合各种水基础设施的水动力模拟能力问题。结果表明,所建立的模型具有较强的应用潜力,可用于全球其他基础设施复杂的低地河流。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing integrated river basin management and flood forecasting in the Cagne catchment: a combined approach using deterministic distributed models 在Cagne流域推进一体化流域管理和洪水预报:使用确定性分布式模型的组合方法
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.100
Mingyan Wang, Paguédame Game, Philippe Gourbesville
Abstract To achieve an integrated river basin management for the Cagne catchment (France) and better predict the flood, various modeling tools are integrated within a unified framework, forming a decision support system (DSS). In the paper, an integrated modeling approach employing deterministic distributed hydrological (MIKE SHE), hydraulic (MIKE 21 FM), and hydrogeological (FEFLOW) models is presented. The hydrological model was validated with recorded data and following a sensitivity analysis for optimizing grid resolution with 20 m. The hydraulic model based on MIKE 21 FM utilizes the results generated by the MIKE SHE model as boundary conditions, producing inundation maps for both normal and extreme periods. The hydrogeological model addresses the various complex relationships taking place within the catchment and was validated with piezometer data. The integration of these three models into a DSS provides a valuable tool for decision-makers to manage the Cagne catchment and the water-related issues more effectively during various hydrological situations. This comprehensive modeling framework underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches for addressing complex hydrological processes and contributes to improved flood management strategies in the catchment.
为了实现法国Cagne流域的流域综合管理,更好地预测洪水,将各种建模工具集成在一个统一的框架内,形成决策支持系统(DSS)。本文提出了一种采用确定性分布式水文(MIKE SHE)、水力(MIKE 21 FM)和水文地质(FEFLOW)模型的综合建模方法。利用记录数据验证了水文模型,并进行了灵敏度分析,以优化20米的网格分辨率。基于MIKE 21 FM的水力模型利用MIKE SHE模型生成的结果作为边界条件,生成正常和极端时期的淹没图。该水文地质模型处理了流域内发生的各种复杂关系,并通过水压计数据进行了验证。将这三个模型整合到一个决策支持系统中,为决策者在各种水文情况下更有效地管理Cagne流域和与水有关的问题提供了一个有价值的工具。这一全面的建模框架强调了解决复杂水文过程的跨学科方法的重要性,并有助于改善集水区的洪水管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrodynamics of laminar pipe flow through an extended partial blockage by CFD 基于CFD的扩展部分堵塞层流管道流体力学研究
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.042
Nuno M. C. Martins, Dídia I. C. Covas, Silvia Meniconi, Caterina Capponi, Bruno Brunone
Abstract In this paper, an advanced three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is used to analyse the steady-state hydrodynamics of laminar flow through an extended partial blockage (PB) in a pressurised pipe. PB corresponds to one of the main faults affecting pipelines. In fact, it reduces its carrying capacity with economic consequences, and as it does not give rise to any external evidence, its detection can be very challenging. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the numerical results with the available experimental data from the literature. Subsequently, the velocity and pressure distributions are analysed, and the main features of the flow field are described in terms of both local and global dimensionless parameters. Furthermore, the behaviour of the discharge coefficient is also investigated. The obtained results confirm that steady-state measurements can identify the presence of PB and follow its evolution over time but cannot detect its location and size. On the other hand, the location and severity of PBs can be provided by means of transient tests.
摘要本文采用先进的三维计算流体力学(CFD)模型,分析了层流在加压管道中通过扩展部分堵塞(PB)的稳态流体力学。PB对应于影响管道的主要故障之一。事实上,它会降低其承载能力,并带来经济后果,而且由于它不会产生任何外部证据,因此检测它可能非常具有挑战性。通过将数值结果与文献中已有的实验数据进行比较,对模型的性能进行了评价。随后,分析了流场的速度和压力分布,并从局部和全局无量纲参数两方面描述了流场的主要特征。此外,还研究了流量系数的变化规律。得到的结果证实,稳态测量可以识别PB的存在并跟踪其随时间的演变,但不能检测其位置和大小。另一方面,通过瞬态试验可以提供PBs的位置和严重程度。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling of a hybrid wind power generator–water distillation system using a Venturi tunnel 采用文丘里隧道的混合式风力发电机-水蒸馏系统建模
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.269
Malak I. Naji, M. A. Al-Nimr
Abstract This study presents the development of a novel hybrid wind power generator–water distillation system with the objective of providing sustainable solutions for impoverished isolated communities facing limited resources. The advantage of the proposed system is its ability to operate day and night; therefore, it produces larger quantities of distilled water even on cloudy days with winds. The system comprises a Venturi tunnel integrated with a wind turbine, an attached impure water tank, and a condenser located at the end section. The accelerated airflow at the throat section serves two purposes: water evaporation from the tank and power generation through the wind turbine. The evaporated water is subsequently collected as the airflow decelerates and the pressure decreases along the diverging section. Theoretical and computational modelling is employed to design the system by examining air speed, area ratio, relative humidity, as well as air, and water temperatures. The system exhibits enhanced performance under warm and dry weather conditions, thereby optimizing its performance. Conversely, temperature and relative humidity do not affect power generation; it was increased by higher air speeds and larger area ratios. This data-driven approach ensures optimal design parameters are selected, aligning the system's capabilities with the specific freshwater demand.
摘要本研究提出了一种新型混合风力发电-水蒸馏系统的开发,旨在为资源有限的贫困偏远社区提供可持续的解决方案。该系统的优点是能够昼夜运行;因此,即使在有风的阴天,它也能产生更多的蒸馏水。该系统包括与风力涡轮机集成的文丘里隧道、附加的不纯水箱和位于末端的冷凝器。喉部的加速气流有两个目的:从水箱中蒸发水分和通过风力涡轮机发电。随着气流减速和沿分流段的压力减小,蒸发的水随后被收集起来。通过检查空气速度、面积比、相对湿度以及空气和水温,采用理论和计算模型来设计系统。该系统在温暖和干燥的天气条件下表现出增强的性能,从而优化了其性能。反之,温度和相对湿度不影响发电;更高的空气速度和更大的面积比增加了它。这种数据驱动的方法确保了最佳设计参数的选择,使系统的能力与特定的淡水需求保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal charging station placement for autonomous robots in drinking water networks 饮水管网中自主机器人的最佳充电站布局
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.040
Mario Castro-Gama, Yvonne Hassink-Mulder
Drinking water utilities and commercial vendors are developing battery-powered autonomous robots for the internal inspection of pipelines. However, these robots require nearby charging stations next to the pipelines of the water distribution networks (WDN). This prompts practical questions about the minimal number of charging stations and robots required. To address the questions, an integer linear programming optimization is formulated, akin to set covering, based on the shortest path of the charging stations to each node along a pipeline. The optimization decisions revolve around designating nodes as charging stations, considering the maximum distance (δmax) at which a robot can cover a hard constraint. For optimal placement, two objective formulations are proposed: (i) minimize the total number of stations, representing total cost; and (ii) maximize the total redundancy of the system. The methodology is applied to three WDN topologies (i.e. Modena, Five Reservoirs, and E−Town). Results show the influence of topology on the total number of stations, the number of robots, and the redundancy of the charging stations network. A trade-off between δmax and total number of stations emphasizes robot battery capacity's significance mariocastrogama.
饮用水公司和商业供应商正在开发电池供电的自主机器人,用于管道的内部检查。然而,这些机器人需要附近的充电站靠近供水网络(WDN)的管道。这就引发了有关充电站和机器人最少数量的实际问题。为了解决这些问题,基于充电站沿管道到每个节点的最短路径,制定了一个整数线性规划优化,类似于集覆盖。优化决策围绕着将节点指定为充电站,考虑机器人可以覆盖硬约束的最大距离(δmax)。对于最优安置,提出了两个目标公式:(i)尽量减少站的总数,代表总成本;(ii)最大化系统的总冗余。该方法应用于三种WDN拓扑结构(即摩德纳、五水库和E - Town)。结果表明,拓扑结构对充电站网络的总充电站数量、机器人数量和冗余度的影响。δmax和总台数之间的权衡强调了机器人电池容量的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Data-driven and echo state network-based prediction of wave propagation behavior in dam-break flood 基于数据驱动和回波状态网络的溃坝洪水波浪传播特性预测
3区 工程技术 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2023.035
Changli Li, Zheng Han, Yange Li, Ming Li, Weidong Wang, Ningsheng Chen, Guisheng Hu
Abstract The computational prediction of wave propagation in dam-break floods is a long-standing problem in hydrodynamics and hydrology. We show that a reservoir computing echo state network (RC-ESN) that is well-trained on a minimal amount of data can accurately predict the long-term dynamic behavior of a one-dimensional dam-break flood. We solve the de Saint-Venant equations for a one-dimensional dam-break flood scenario using the Lax–Wendroff numerical scheme and train the RC-ESN model. The results demonstrate that the RC-ESN model has good prediction ability, as it predicts wave propagation behavior 286 time-steps ahead with a root mean square error smaller than 0.01, outperforming the conventional long short-term memory (LSTM) model, which only predicts 81 time-steps ahead. We also provide a sensitivity analysis of prediction accuracy for RC-ESN's key parameters such as training set size, reservoir size, and spectral radius. Results indicate that the RC-ESN is less dependent on training set size, with a medium reservoir size of 1,200–2,600 sufficient. We confirm that the spectral radius has a complex influence on the prediction accuracy and currently recommend a smaller spectral radius. Even when the initial flow depth of the dam break is changed, the prediction horizon of RC-ESN remains greater than that of LSTM.
摘要溃坝洪水波浪传播的计算预测是水动力学和水文学领域一个长期存在的问题。研究表明,水库计算回声状态网络(RC-ESN)经过少量数据的良好训练,可以准确预测一维溃坝洪水的长期动态行为。采用Lax-Wendroff数值格式求解一维溃坝洪水情景的de Saint-Venant方程,并训练RC-ESN模型。结果表明,RC-ESN模型具有较好的预测能力,可以提前286个时间步预测波的传播行为,且均方根误差小于0.01,优于仅提前81个时间步的传统长短期记忆(LSTM)模型。本文还对RC-ESN的训练集大小、储层大小、谱半径等关键参数的预测精度进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,RC-ESN对训练集大小的依赖较小,1,200-2,600的中等库大小就足够了。我们确认谱半径对预测精度有复杂的影响,目前推荐较小的谱半径。即使改变溃坝初始流深,RC-ESN的预测范围仍大于LSTM的预测范围。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Hydroinformatics
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