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Low-Frequency Noise Pollution in the Northeastern Part of Mosrentgen (Moscow) 莫斯科东北部的低频噪声污染
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823080030
A. N. Kotov, A. O. Agibalov, A. A. Sentsov

Abstract

The rapid development of industrial activity leads steadily to an increase in the influence of various factors that have a negative impact on the environment. One of them is a high level of technogenic low-frequency seismoacoustic pollution of settlements. This paper presents the results of in situ measurements of microseismic and acoustic noise in various frequency ranges in conditions of dense urban development using the example of the settlement of Mosrentgen. As a result of processing the primary data, we have obtained averaged values normalized to the reference station, compared the values of microseismic and acoustic noise, and localized areas of increased noise pollution. The features of the spatiotemporal distribution of microseismic and acoustic noise in the area of Mosrentgen are given. It is shown that the Moscow Ring Road and the metro station under construction are sources of low-frequency noise pollution. At the same time, it is recorded that the maximum permissible values of vibration and acoustic background up to 28 dB are exceeded.

摘要 工业活动的快速发展导致对环境产生负面影响的各种因素的影响不断增加。其中之一就是居民区的高水平技术性低频地震声污染。本文以莫森特根(Mosrentgen)定居点为例,介绍了在城市密集发展条件下对各种频率范围的微地震和声学噪声进行现场测量的结果。通过对原始数据的处理,我们获得了以参考站为标准的平均值,比较了微震噪声和声学噪声的数值,并确定了噪声污染加剧的局部区域。我们给出了莫森特根地区微震和声学噪声的时空分布特征。研究表明,莫斯科环路和在建地铁站是低频噪声污染的来源。同时,记录显示振动和声学背景的最大允许值超过了 28 分贝。
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引用次数: 0
Isotope Composition of Gases of Magmatic and Sedimentary Volcanic Systems: A Review and Comparative Analysis 岩浆和沉积火山系统气体的同位素组成:回顾与比较分析
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823080017
A. A. Feyzullayev

Abstract

This article presents the results of a comparative analysis of the isotopic–geochemical composition of gases from igneous/hydrothermal and sedimentary volcanic systems in various regions of the world based on a large amount of literature data and the results of the author’s own research. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the nature of gases of various volcanic systems using known genetic criteria developed as a result of many years of research by a number of scientists from around the world. Data processing for the purpose of comparative analysis and corresponding graphical constructions have been performed using standard computer programs. A comprehensive analysis of the isotopic composition of carbon-rich gases and the isotopic ratio of helium (R/Ra) allows us to draw the following main conclusions: (1) hydrocarbon (HC) gases of the studied volcanic systems have different genetic sources: (a) abiogenic in igneous and carbonic sedimentary volcanic systems, (b) predominantly abiogenic–biogenic in the hydrothermal system, and (c) biogenic (thermogenic–microbial) in sedimentary volcanoes; (2) the content of abiogenic methane in the magmatic/hydrothermal system is insignificant and does not exceed 1%; (3) the isotope composition of CO2 and the ratio of isotopes of radiogenic and air argon (40Ar/36Ar) in igneous volcanoes varies within very narrow limits when compared with sedimentary volcanoes. However, the use of these parameters as an unambiguous genetic criterion is not possible.

摘要 本文介绍了根据大量文献数据和作者本人的研究成果,对世界不同地区火成/热液和沉积火山系统气体的同位素地球化学组成进行比较分析的结果。这项研究的目的是利用世界各地一些科学家多年研究得出的已知基因标准,对各种火山系统的气体性质进行评估。为进行比较分析而进行的数据处理和相应的图表制作都是使用标准计算机程序完成的。通过对富碳气体同位素组成和氦同位素比值(R/Ra)的综合分析,我们可以得出以下主要结论:(1)所研究火山系统的碳氢化合物(HC)气体具有不同的基因来源:(a) 在火成岩和碳沉积火山系统中为非生物源,(b) 在热液系统中主要为非生物源-生物源,(c) 在沉积火山中为生物源(热源-微生物源);(2) 在岩浆/热液系统中,非生物甲烷的含量微不足道,不超过 1%;(3) 与沉积火山相比,火成岩火山中二氧化碳的同位素组成以及放射性氩和空气氩的同位素比值(40Ar/36Ar)的变化范围非常小。然而,将这些参数作为明确的遗传标准是不可能的。
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引用次数: 0
Mercury in Frozen Quaternary Sediments of the Spitsbergen Archipelago 斯匹次卑尔根群岛冰冻第四纪沉积物中的汞
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823080054
N. E. Demidov, A. V. Guzeva, A. L. Nikulina, S. Wetterich, L. Schirrmeister

Abstract

The climate warming–related degradation of permafrost can lead to the entry of climatically and biologically active substances, including mercury, into the biosphere; this work focuses on the analysis of the total content of mercury and organic carbon in 15 cores drilled in frozen Quaternary deposits of the Arctic Archipelago of Spitsbergen. The mercury content was additionally analyzed in bedrock samples, because the studied Quaternary deposits are formed by the weathering of the bedrock of the area. The results show that mercury concentrations in 157 studied samples of frozen Quaternary deposits range from 21 to 94 ng/g, with an average value of 40 ng/g. The expected correlation of mercury content with organic carbon content is not revealed. There are no trends in the accumulation of mercury depending on the lithological facies, geomorphological position, the time of sedimentation, or the freezing conditions. The average content of mercury in bedrock is relatively low, with a mean value of 8 ng/g. This means that the main source of mercury in frozen Quaternary deposits is not bedrock, but the formation of organic matter complexes or sorption on clay particles. In terms of the ongoing discussion about mercury input from permafrost to ecosystems, the results obtained from boreholes can be considered preindustrial background values.

摘要 与气候变暖有关的永久冻土层退化可能导致包括汞在内的气候和生物活性物质进入生物圈;本研究重点分析了在斯匹次卑尔根北极群岛冰冻的第四纪沉积物中钻取的 15 个岩心中汞和有机碳的总含量。此外,还对基岩样本中的汞含量进行了分析,因为所研究的第四纪沉积物是由该地区的基岩风化形成的。结果表明,在 157 个研究的第四纪冰冻沉积物样本中,汞的浓度介于 21 至 94 纳克/克之间,平均值为 40 纳克/克。没有发现汞含量与有机碳含量之间的预期相关性。汞的积累与岩相、地貌位置、沉积时间或冰冻条件无关。基岩中汞的平均含量相对较低,平均值为 8 纳克/克。这意味着第四纪冰冻沉积物中汞的主要来源不是基岩,而是有机物复合物的形成或粘土颗粒的吸附。就目前关于汞从永久冻土层进入生态系统的讨论而言,从钻孔中获得的结果可视为工业化前的本底值。
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引用次数: 0
Relation between Morphometric Parameters of Relief Characterizing the Fracturing of the Upper Part of the Lithosphere and Manifestations of Volcanism in the Malko-Petropavlovsk Zone 表征岩石圈上部断裂的地形参数与马尔科-彼得罗巴甫洛夫斯克地带火山活动表现之间的关系
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823080042
A. O. Agibalov, O. V. Bergal-Kuvikas, V. A. Zaitsev, V. M. Makeev, A. A. Sentsov

Abstract

Numerous monogenic volcanic structures and thermal water outlets in the Malko-Petropavlovsk zone of transverse dislocations (MPZ) on the Kamchatka Peninsula have been established to be localized in areas of increased fracturing in the upper part of the earth’s crust. In the paper, we characterize at a quantitative level the association of manifestations of volcanism and hydrothermal–magmatic systems with positive anomalies in the morphometric characteristics of the relief (specific length of “weak” zones and watercourses, density of intersections of rivers and lineaments, and dispersion of slope exposure). A high degree of consistency in the orientations of faults and weak zones are revealed: both rose diagrams show northwestern, meridional, and northeastern directions, while the average circular values of their strikes are 75° and 76°, respectively. According to the Nechaev method (Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences (IPE RAS)), 3D models of tectonic fragmentation of the earth’s crust in the depth range of 2.5–10 km are obtained based on the calculation of the specific lengths of weak zones and watercourses. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the point elements of these voxel models is 0.86. Based on the relation between morphometric characteristics and manifestations of volcanism, we suggest that, in general, the nature of the fracturing reflected in the relief is one of the main factors determining the hydrothermal–magmatic activity of the studied area, which has a great effect on human economic activity.

摘要 堪察加半岛马尔科-彼得罗巴甫洛夫斯克横向错动带(MPZ)中的许多单源火山结构和热水出口已被确定位于地壳上部断裂增加的区域。在本文中,我们从定量的角度描述了火山活动和热液-岩浆系统的表现与地貌形态特征("薄弱 "地带和水道的具体长度、河流和线状物交汇的密度以及斜坡出露的分散性)的正异常之间的联系。断层和薄弱带的走向高度一致:两张玫瑰图均显示西北、经向和东北方向,其走向的平均圆周值分别为 75° 和 76°。根据涅恰耶夫方法(俄罗斯科学院地球物理研究所),在计算薄弱带和水道具体长度的基础上,获得了 2.5-10 千米深度范围内地壳构造破碎的三维模型。这些体素模型的点元素之间的皮尔逊相关系数为 0.86。根据形态特征与火山活动表现之间的关系,我们认为,总体而言,地形所反映的断裂性质是决定所研究地区热液-岩浆活动的主要因素之一,而热液-岩浆活动对人类经济活动具有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Impact of the Development of the Chayanda Field on Surface Ground Subsidence 评估恰扬达油田开发对地表沉降的影响
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1134/s000143382307006x
V. S. Zhukov, D. K. Kuzmin

Abstract

In this paper we present the results of studies of the Botuobin, Talakh, and Khamakin reservoirs of the Vendian period in the Chayanda hydrocarbon field (Eastern Siberia). Based on an analysis of variations in the petrophysical parameters of reservoirs upon an increase in effective pressure from 37 to 57 MPa, i.e., under conditions simulating the development of a field for depletion, changes in the volume and compressibility of the pore space are estimated. In this case, the porosity coefficient decreases by 0.043 abs. %, while the compressibility of the pore space decreases by 0.228 1/GPa. The average volumetric compression strain increases by 0.096%, which means a reduction in the volume of developed reservoirs by almost 0.1% relative to the beginning of development. A deformable formation model developed by Yu.O. Kuzmin based on the geodynamic history of the development of deposits is applied to estimate the magnitude of possible subsidence of the ground surface during development. The maximal values of possible surface subsidence (drawdowns) upon a decrease in reservoir fluid pressure by 5 MPa are estimated to be 0.33 m with allowance for the dynamics of petrophysical parameters and 0.335 m with no allowance for it. The maximal drawdowns are already estimated at 0.60 and 0.65 m upon a decrease in reservoir pressure by 10 MPa and 0.78 and 0.83 m upon a complete depletion of reservoir energy, respectively. The results of the studies show that taking into account the changes in petrophysical characteristics caused by the field development processes alters the estimate of the deformation state of the rock massif and the ground surface above the deposit and, consequently, the estimate of the level of geodynamic risk of oil-and-gas complex objects.

摘要 本文介绍了对恰扬达油气田(东西伯利亚)文氏期 Botuobin、Talakh 和 Khamakin 储层的研究结果。根据对有效压力从 37 兆帕增加到 57 兆帕时储层岩石物理参数变化的分析,即在模拟油气田开发枯竭的条件下,对孔隙空间体积和可压缩性的变化进行了估算。在这种情况下,孔隙度系数降低了 0.043 abs.孔隙空间的可压缩性降低了 0.228 1/GPa。平均体积压缩应变增加了 0.096%,这意味着与开发初期相比,已开发储层的体积减少了近 0.1%。尤-奥-库兹明(Yu.O. Kuzmin)根据矿床开发的地球动力学历史开发的可变形地层模型,用于估算开发过程中地表可能下沉的幅度。在考虑岩石物理参数动态的情况下,储层流体压力下降 5 兆帕时地表可能下沉(缩减)的最大值估计为 0.33 米,在不考虑岩石物理参数动态的情况下为 0.335 米。在储层压力下降 10 兆帕时,最大缩减量估计分别为 0.60 米和 0.65 米,在储层能量完全耗尽时,最大缩减量估计分别为 0.78 米和 0.83 米。研究结果表明,考虑到油田开发过程引起的岩石物理特性的变化,会改变对矿床上方岩体和地表变形状态的估计,从而改变对油气综合体地球动力风险程度的估计。
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引用次数: 0
Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data 修正的中期地震预报方法:地震预测地图。处理和分析初始数据
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823070058
A. D. Zavyalov, A. N. Morozov, I. M. Aleshin, S. D. Ivanov, K. I. Kholodkov, V. A. Pavlenko

Abstract

This article is the second in a series devoted to the modification of the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) method of medium-term earthquake forecasting. The description of algorithms for preparing and analyzing initial data and the results of their application are presented. In particular, the following additional functional capabilities have been achieved: (1) the creation of various computational grids for further spatial and temporal scanning of the earthquake catalog within the analyzed seismic active region, (2) the declustering of earthquake catalogs and evaluation of representative values of energy classes (magnitudes) in space and time, and (3) the evaluation of time interval length for calculating the background parameters of prognostic features. The overall result of successful scientific and technical work will be the creation of an upgraded method for medium-term earthquake prediction taking into account the spatial distribution of earthquake sources, the integrated use of physically based earthquake precursors, the results of seismic zoning in the form of a lineament–domain–focal (LDF) model, and other related areas of research.

摘要 本文是专门讨论中期地震预报的预期地震图(MEE)方法修改的系列文章中的第二篇。文章介绍了用于准备和分析初始数据的算法及其应用结果。特别是实现了以下附加功能:(1) 创建各种计算网格,以便在分析的地震活跃区内对地震目录进行进一步的空间和时间扫描;(2) 对地震目录进行解聚,并在空间和时间上评估能量等级(震级)的代表值;(3) 评估用于计算预报特征背景参数的时间间隔长度。科学和技术工作取得成功的总体结果将是,在考虑震源空间分布、综合利用基于物理 的地震前兆、以线-域-焦点(LDF)模型为形式的地震区划结果以及其他相关研究领域的 情况下,创建一种升级的中期地震预测方法。
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引用次数: 0
Archaeoseismological Study of Medieval Monuments at the Foot of Sulaiman-Too Mountain (Osh City, Fergana Valley) 苏莱曼图山脚下中世纪遗迹的考古地震学研究(费尔干纳河谷,奥什市)
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823070034
A. M. Korzhenkov, B. E. Amanbaeva, A. Anarbaev, H. Ibadullaev, L. A. Korzhenkova, M. Pardaev, A. A. Strelnikov, J. Williams, A. B. Fortuna

Abstract

In the fall of 2022, we studied damages at the 16th-century Ravat Abdullakhan Mosque in the city of Osh in the east of the Fergana Valley using archeoseismology method. Seismic deformations related, apparently, to the strong Kokand earthquake that occurred in 1822 have been revealed: a significant horizontal displacement of the upper part of the mosque relative to the lower part, systematic tilts of the colonnades, and rotations around the vertical axis (both of individual parts of the mosque and the building as a whole). Such severe damage could have been caused by seismic oscillations with a strength of Il = 8‒9 (according to the MSK-64 scale). The Ravat Abdullakhan Mosque was built in the 16th century on the ruins of two more ancient structures. It is possible that two seismic events of the 12th and 15th centuries led to the destruction of these buildings (the construction of the pre-Mongol period and, presumably, the Jauz Mosque mentioned in Bāburnāma). The first earthquake is likely responsible for the destruction of the bath complex from the Karakhanid era that is located next to the mosque. The sources of seismic oscillations were tectonic movements along the zones of adyr faults and folds that were located near the Ravat Abdullakhan Mosque. It is possible that the initiator of seismic damage to the mosque was Mount Sulaiman-Too, an actively growing anticlinal adyr fold; the medieval structure under study is located at the its eastern foot.

摘要 2022 年秋,我们使用考古地震学方法对费尔干纳谷地东部奥什市 16 世纪的拉瓦特-阿卜杜拉汗清真寺的损坏情况进行了研究。研究发现,其地震变形显然与 1822 年发生的科坎德强烈地震有关:清真寺上部相对于下部发生了明显的水平位移,柱廊发生了系统性倾斜,并围绕垂直轴线发生了旋转(包括清真寺的个别部分和整个建筑)。如此严重的破坏可能是由强度为 Il = 8-9 的地震震荡(根据 MSK-64 级)造成的。拉瓦特-阿卜杜拉汗清真寺是 16 世纪在另外两座古建筑的废墟上修建的。可能是 12 世纪和 15 世纪的两次地震导致了这些建筑的毁坏(前蒙古时期的建筑,大概还有《巴伯纳马》中提到的焦兹清真寺)。第一次地震很可能导致位于清真寺旁边的卡拉哈尼德时期的浴室建筑群被毁。地震振荡的源头是位于拉瓦特-阿卜杜拉汗清真寺附近的阿迪尔断层和褶皱带的构造运动。对清真寺造成地震破坏的始作俑者可能是苏莱曼-图山,它是一个生长活跃的反斜面阿迪尔褶皱;所研究的中世纪建筑就位于其东麓。
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引用次数: 0
Isotope-Geochemical Characteristics of Fluids and Organic Matter of Rocks of Mud Volcanoes in the Northwestern (Azerbaijan) and Southeastern (Iran) Parts of the South Caspian Basin: A Comparative Analysis 南里海盆地西北部(阿塞拜疆)和东南部(伊朗)泥火山岩石流体和有机物质的同位素地球化学特征:比较分析
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823070022
A. A. Feyzullayev, U. A. Movsumova

Abstract

This article presents a comparative analysis of the isotope-geochemical characteristics of the products of activity of mud volcanoes (MVs) in the northwestern (Azerbaijan) and southeastern (Iran) parts of the South Caspian Basin (SCB). Gases of MVs in the studied regions are mainly of thermocatalytic origin, with the predominance of methane. High concentrations of nitrogen (up to 50%) are noted in the gases of some MVs in the Iranian sector. One distinctive feature of the MVs in the Azerbaijani part of the SCB is the presence of isotopically superheavy (>5‰) carbon dioxide, which is not typical for MVs in Iran. The waters of the MVs of Iran and most of the MVs of Azerbaijan are of the sodium chloride type. Isotopically heavy bicarbonate and carbonate ions, characteristic of the mud volcanic waters of Azerbaijan, are not typical for the volcanoes of the Iranian part of the SCB. Organic matter of rock ejecta of MVs in the Azerbaijani part of the SCB refers mainly to type II and type II–III kerogen, while in its Iranian part it is mainly type III kerogen. Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan are characterized by a wide range of gas generation depths (10–16 km) and, accordingly, significant subvertical migration. The calculated maximum depth of the HC gas source in the Iranian part of the SCB does not exceed 12 km.

摘要 本文对南里海盆地西北部(阿塞拜疆)和东南部(伊朗)泥火山活动产物的同位素地球化学特征进行了比较分析。研究地区的泥火山气体主要来自热催化反应,以甲烷为主。在伊朗部分地区的一些煤层气中发现了高浓度氮气(高达 50%)。南中国海阿塞拜疆部分的低压气 体的一个显著特点是存在同位素超重(5‰)二氧化碳,这在伊朗的低压气 体中并不常见。伊朗中压水域和阿塞拜疆大部分中压水域的水质属于氯化钠型。阿塞拜疆泥质火山水特有的同位素重碳酸氢根离子和碳酸根离子,在南亚盆地伊朗部分的火山中并不常见。深海盆地阿塞拜疆部分的泥火山岩石喷出物中的有机物主要是第二类和第二至第三类角质,而伊朗部分的主要是第三类角质。阿塞拜疆泥火山的特点是气体生成深度范围广(10-16 千米),因此地下迁移量大。根据计算,阿塞拜疆泥火山伊朗部分的碳氢化合物气源最大深度不超过 12 公里。
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引用次数: 0
Anomalous Selective Absorption of Smoke Aerosol during Forest Fires in Alaska in July–August 2019 2019 年 7-8 月阿拉斯加森林火灾期间烟雾气溶胶的异常选择性吸收
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.1134/s000143382306004x
G. I. Gorchakov, V. M. Kopeikin, R. A. Gushchin, A. V. Karpov, E. G. Semoutnikova, O. I. Datsenko, T. Ya. Ponomareva

Abstract

According to the monitoring data of the optical and microphysical characteristics of smoke aerosol at AERONET stations during forest fires in the summer of 2019 in Alaska, the anomalous selective absorption of smoke aerosol has been detected in the visible and near-infrared spectral range from 440 to 1020 nm. With anomalous selective absorption, the imaginary part of the refractive index of smoke aerosol reached 0.315 at a wavelength of 1020 nm. A power-law approximation of the spectral dependence of the imaginary part of the refractive index with an exponent from 0.26 to 2.35 is proposed. It is shown that, for anomalous selective absorption, power-law approximations of the spectral dependences of the aerosol optical extinction and absorption depths are applicable with an Ångström exponent from 0.96 to 1.65 for the aerosol optical extinction depth and from 0.97 to –0.89 for the aerosol optical absorption depth, which reached 0.72. Single scattering albedo varied from 0.62 to 0.96. In the size distribution of smoke aerosol particles with anomalous selective absorption, the fine fraction of particles of condensation origin dominated. The similarity of the fraction of particles distinguished by anomalous selective absorption with the fraction of tar balls (TBs) detected by electron microscopy in smoke aerosol, which, apparently, arise during the condensation of terpenes and their oxygen-containing derivatives, is noted.

摘要根据2019年夏季阿拉斯加森林火灾期间AERONET站烟雾气溶胶光学和微物理特征监测数据,在440~1020 nm可见光和近红外光谱范围内检测到烟雾气溶胶的异常选择性吸收。在异常选择性吸收的作用下,烟雾气溶胶折射率的虚部在波长为 1020 nm 时达到 0.315。提出了折射率虚部随光谱变化的幂律近似值,其指数为 0.26 至 2.35。研究表明,对于异常选择性吸收,气溶胶光学消光和吸收深度的光谱依赖性的幂律近似值是适用的,气溶胶光学消光深度的 Ångström 指数从 0.96 到 1.65,气溶胶光学吸收深度的 Ångström 指数从 0.97 到 -0.89,达到 0.72。单散射反照率在 0.62 至 0.96 之间变化。在具有异常选择性吸收的烟雾气溶胶粒子的粒径分布中,凝结源粒子的细小部分占主导地位。通过电子显微镜在烟雾气溶胶中检测到的焦油球(TBs)显然是在萜烯及其含氧衍生物的凝结过程中产生的。
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引用次数: 0
Response of the Tropospheric Dynamics to Extreme States of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex during ENSO Phases in Idealized Model Experiments 理想化模型试验中对流层动力学对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动阶段平流层极地涡旋极端状态的响应
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433823060130
Y. A. Zyulyaeva, D. A. Sobaeva, S. K. Gulev

Abstract

Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) affect the average position of the main propagation trajectories of synoptic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere over a time period from 2 weeks to 2 months. This time scale is considered one of the most difficult periods in forecasting. Based on the analysis of data from idealized numerical experiments on the Isca platform, we have studied the processes of formation of anomalous positions of storm tracks in the Atlantic–European region as a response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and events of extremely strong SPV during various phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that in winter it is impossible to unambiguously talk about the southward displacement of the Atlantic storm track during El Niño events without taking into account the intensity of SPV. The intensity of SPV, expressed as the zonal component of wind speed, averaged along 60° N at the level of 10 hPa, has its maximum predictive potential during El Niño.

摘要 平流层极地涡旋(SPV)的极端状态会在 2 周到 2 个月的时间内影响北半球合流涡旋主要传播轨迹的平均位置。这一时间尺度被认为是最难预报的时段之一。基于对伊斯卡平台上理想化数值实验数据的分析,我们研究了在厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)的不同阶段,大西洋-欧洲地区风暴轨迹异常位置的形成过程,这是对平流层突然变暖(SSWs)和极强SPV事件的反应。研究表明,在冬季,如果不考虑 SPV 的强度,就不可能明确谈论厄尔尼诺现象期间大西洋风暴轨道的南移。SPV 强度表示为风速的带状分量,沿北纬 60 度 10 hPa 水平的平均值,在厄尔尼诺期间具有最大的预测潜力。
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引用次数: 0
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Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
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