Global and Planetary Change最新文献_第3页

Holocene relative sea-level changes from the Atlantic coasts of South America 南美洲大西洋海岸的全新世相对海平面变化

IF 3.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105315

K. Rubio-Sandoval, T.A. Shaw, M. Vacchi, N. Khan, B.P. Horton, J.R. Angulo, M. Pappalardo, A.L. Ferreira-Júnior, S. Richiano, M.C. de Souza, P.C. Giannini, D.D. Ryan, E.J. Gowan, A. Rovere

引用次数: 0

Tropicalization and biodiversity restructuring of calcifying plankton in a rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea 快速变暖的地中海中钙化浮游生物的热带化和生物多样性重构

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105314

Arturo Lucas , Sven Pallacks , Alessandro Incarbona , P. Graham Mortyn , Patrizia Ziveri

Climate-driven shifts in species diversity, community composition and phenology can disrupt ecosystem functioning and compromise marine ecosystem stability. The Mediterranean Sea, a global biodiversity hotspot, is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and is experiencing a growing biodiversity crisis especially driven by warming, habitat degradation, pollution and the introduction of new species. Yet, current knowledge of biodiversity changes in this region is largely limited to shallow shelf benthic communities and macroorganisms. Calcifying phytoplankton and zooplankton, however, offer a unique lens into pelagic ecosystem dynamics, as their fossil record preserves signals of biodiversity change in deep-sea sediments spanning the Industrial Era and the current phase of rapid warming. This study focuses on the reconstruction of diversity change of two dominant calcifying plankton groups: coccolithophores and foraminifera (primary and secondary producers). We examine two selected sedimentary records of the western and central Mediterranean—Alboran Sea and the Strait of Sicily—spanning the last ∼1700 and 200 years of modern climate, respectively. By quantifying abundance, diversity and turnover of species composition we evaluate the potential response of calcifying plankton assemblages to oceanographic changes under anthropogenic climate change. The results revealed contrasting changes in the diversity of the two dominant calcifying plankton groups, with a rapid increase in coccolithophore diversity alongside a decrease in planktonic foraminiferal diversity during the Industrial Era. We attribute these group-specific responses to ecological and physiological differences, particularly in relation to life cycles and water column distribution, under increasingly stratified, nutrient-depleted surface waters driven by rising sea surface temperatures. In addition, this study provides first indication of tropicalization of the western Mediterranean plankton derived from the increasing intrusion and eastward expansion of the coccolithophore Gephyrocapsa oceanica from the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea. The highest abundances of this species are restricted to the Equatorial Atlantic Divergence Zone and only found in higher proportions in the Mediterranean during past warm periods. Although the temperate-productivity foraminiferal species of Globigerina bulloides and Globorotalia inflata remain the dominant foraminiferal species, previous minor dominant species are being replaced by warm-oligotrophic species, such as Trilobatus sacculifer and Globigerinella spp. These align with model projections of tropical species migrating into the area, previously documented among benthic organisms and point to a broader restructuring of planktonic life.

气候驱动的物种多样性、群落组成和物候变化会破坏生态系统功能，损害海洋生态系统的稳定性。地中海是全球生物多样性的热点地区，特别容易受到人为气候变化的影响，并且正在经历日益严重的生物多样性危机，尤其是在气候变暖、栖息地退化、污染和新物种引入的推动下。然而，目前对该地区生物多样性变化的认识主要局限于浅海陆架底栖生物群落和大型生物。然而，钙化浮游植物和浮游动物为研究远洋生态系统动力学提供了一个独特的视角，因为它们的化石记录保存了跨越工业时代和当前快速变暖阶段的深海沉积物中生物多样性变化的信号。本研究重点重建了两个主要的钙化浮游生物类群：球石藻和有孔虫（初级和次级生产者）的多样性变化。我们研究了地中海西部和中部的阿尔博兰海和西西里海峡的两个精选的沉积记录，它们分别跨越了过去~ 1700年和200年的现代气候。通过量化物种组成的丰度、多样性和周转，我们评估了人为气候变化下钙化浮游生物组合对海洋变化的潜在响应。结果显示，在工业时代，两个主要的钙化浮游生物类群的多样性发生了截然不同的变化，球石藻多样性迅速增加，而浮游有孔虫多样性却在减少。我们将这些群体的特定反应归因于生态和生理差异，特别是与生命周期和水柱分布有关的差异，在海面温度上升驱动的日益分层、营养物枯竭的地表水下。此外，这项研究首次表明，西地中海浮游生物的热带化源于球石藻Gephyrocapsa oceanica从直布罗陀海峡进入地中海的入侵和向东扩张。该物种的最高丰度仅限于赤道大西洋辐散区，仅在过去温暖时期在地中海发现较高比例。虽然温带有孔虫物种Globigerina bulloides和Globorotalia inflata仍然是优势有孔虫物种，但以前的次要优势物种正在被温暖的低营养物种所取代，如三叶虫sacullifer和Globigerinella spp.这些与热带物种迁移到该地区的模型预测一致，之前在底栖生物中有记录，并指出了更广泛的浮游生物重组。

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引用次数: 0

Wildfire intensity changes since the Mid-Holocene in highly continental Yakutia, Siberia, revealed by benzene polycarboxylic acids 苯多羧酸揭示的中全新世以来西伯利亚雅库特高度陆相地区野火强度变化

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105308

Ramesh Glückler , Shiro Tsuyuzaki , Ulrike Herzschuh , Luidmila A. Pestryakova , Elisabeth Dietze , Stefan Kruse , Youhei Yamashita

Intensifying fire regimes threaten to disturb the ecological balance among larch-dominated forests, permafrost, and historically low-intensity surface fires in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), known as Earth's coldest inhabited region. This ecological balance is currently considered to stabilize this unique ecosystem and its function as a continental-scale carbon reservoir. Here, we present the first paleoecological reconstructions of wildfire intensities, using benzene polycarboxylic acids (BPCAs) in lake sediments from the lowland of Central Yakutia and the highland of the southern Verkhoyansk Mountains as a proxy for fire intensity. Results reveal changes of BPCA-derived pyrogenic carbon concentration (BPCA-PyC) and inferred fire intensity over the past c. 7600 years. Unexpectedly, the highland region recorded higher levels of BPCA-PyC and fire intensity than the lowland region. Our results separate a shrub fire regime in the highland from a forest ground fire regime in the lowland, highlighting both an increased variability of fire regimes in the lowland since the Mid-Holocene and stable multi-centennial-scale fire intensity in the highland since the Late Holocene. This raises questions about potential future shifts in fire regimes and their ecological impacts. A separate application of the BPCA method to extracted macroscopic charcoal particles indicates their origin from low-intensity, smoldering fires, contrasting with smaller pyrogenic carbon components in the sediment matrix. We discuss effects of dominant fire regimes, lake size and setting, and proxy taphonomy on sedimentary pyrogenic carbon. This study highlights benefits of applying a mix of fire proxies, while providing an initial perspective on long-term changes of fire intensity for eastern Siberia.

在萨哈共和国（雅库特），被称为地球上最冷的有人居住地区，不断加剧的火灾威胁着落叶松主导的森林、永久冻土和历史上低强度地表火灾之间的生态平衡。这种生态平衡目前被认为是稳定这一独特的生态系统及其作为大陆尺度碳库的功能。本文首次利用雅库特中部低地和Verkhoyansk山脉南部高地湖泊沉积物中的苯聚羧酸（BPCAs）作为野火强度的代表，进行了野火强度的古生态重建。结果揭示了近7600年来bpca衍生的热原碳浓度（BPCA-PyC）和推断的火灾强度的变化。出乎意料的是，高原地区记录的BPCA-PyC水平和火灾强度高于低地地区。我们的研究结果将高原的灌木火情与低地的森林地面火情区分开来，强调了自全新世中期以来低地火情的变异性增加，以及自全新世晚期以来高原的多百年尺度火灾强度稳定。这就提出了关于未来火灾制度及其生态影响的潜在变化的问题。另一项单独应用BPCA方法提取宏观木炭颗粒的研究表明，它们来自低强度的阴燃火灾，与沉积物基质中较小的热原碳成分形成对比。讨论了主要火种、湖泊大小和环境以及代用埋藏对沉积热成因碳的影响。这项研究强调了应用混合火灾代理的好处，同时提供了东西伯利亚火灾强度长期变化的初步视角。

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引用次数: 0

The intensity of the late Holocene drought in northern China related to Arctic Sea ice 中国北方晚全新世干旱强度与北极海冰有关

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105300

Jiaju Zhao , Qianwen Zhang , Zhongwei Shen , Zhiping Zhang , Jie Chen , Lin Chen , Jinzhao Liu , Yunning Cao , Jing Hu

Understanding the evolution and mechanisms of past droughts can provide critical insights for drought prediction in northern China in the context of global warming. During the late Holocene, drought was frequently in northern China; however, its spatial patterns and intensities have received less attention. Here, we present a high-resolution moisture record based on alkenone proxies from Daihai Lake (Inner Mongolia, China), which indicates a long-term decline in water depth in spring during the late Holocene. Notably, significant reductions in water depth were observed during the periods of ca. 4.3–3.4 cal ka BP, 2.5–2.2 cal ka BP, 1.5–0.8 cal ka BP, and the current warm period. In conjunction with published reconstructed precipitation records for northern China, we found that widespread and severe droughts occurred at ca. 4.3–3.4 cal ka BP, and 1.5–0.8 cal ka BP due to decreased monsoon rainfall, which closely corresponds to the expansion of Arctic sea ice and the weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Additionally, the most widespread and severe drought occurred at the period 1.5 to 0.8 cal ka BP in northern China, possibly linked with the expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic. Importantly, the intensity of droughts resulting from the weakened summer monsoon circulation in northern China increases with latitude. In the current warm period, the spring water depth of Daihai Lake has reached its lowest level since the late Holocene, likely due to the enhanced evaporation resulting from climate warming. These findings suggest that, under the influence of ongoing global warming, spring drought, along with lake shrinkage and salinization in northern China, may intensify.

了解过去干旱的演变和机制可以为全球变暖背景下的中国北方干旱预测提供重要的见解。全新世晚期，中国北方干旱频繁；然而，其空间格局和强度却很少受到关注。本文以内蒙古代海为例，分析了代海在全新世后期春季水体深度的长期下降趋势。值得注意的是，在约4.3 ~ 3.4 cal ka BP、2.5 ~ 2.2 cal ka BP、1.5 ~ 0.8 cal ka BP和当前暖期，水体深度显著减少。结合已发表的中国北方降水重建记录，我们发现在约4.3 ~ 3.4 cal ka BP和1.5 ~ 0.8 cal ka BP期间，由于季风降水减少，发生了广泛而严重的干旱，这与北极海冰的扩张和大西洋经向翻转环流的减弱密切相关。此外，中国北方地区在1.5 ~ 0.8 cal ka BP期间出现了最广泛和最严重的干旱，这可能与北大西洋海冰的扩张有关。重要的是，中国北方夏季风环流减弱导致的干旱强度随纬度增加而增加。在当前暖期，代海的泉水深度达到了晚全新世以来的最低水平，这可能是由于气候变暖导致蒸发加剧所致。这些结果表明，在持续的全球变暖的影响下，中国北方春季干旱以及湖泊萎缩和盐碱化可能加剧。

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引用次数: 0

Metal induced chitinozoan malformations link the Mid-Ludfordian OAE to the venting of metalliferous hydrothermal basin brines into the Silurian Ocean 金属诱发的几丁质动物畸形将中卢德福尔东火山爆发与含金属热液盆地盐水向志留纪海洋的喷发联系起来

IF 3.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105303

Tim De Backer, Poul Emsbo, Patrick I. McLaughlin, Iris Vancoppenolle, Carolina Klock, Axel Munnecke, Thijs R.A. Vandenbroucke

引用次数: 0

Repeated pulses of volcanism drove terrestrial vegetation and climate changes during the Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode in North China 华北晚三叠世卡尼期多雨期火山活动的反复脉动驱动了陆相植被和气候的变化

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105301

Peixin Zhang , Minfang Yang , Jing Lu , Jacopo Dal Corso , Zhongfeng Jiang , Lei Wang , Kai Zhou , Xiaotao Xu , Yanghang Guo , Huijuan Chen , Longyi Shao , Zhen Xu , Jason Hilton

The Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE; ∼234–232 Ma) witnessed profound changes in terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation, and climate, which could be related to eruptions of Wrangellia Large Igneous Province (LIP). Nonetheless, the scarcity of detailed terrestrial plant records limits understanding of whether these floral and climate changes were synchronized with Wrangellia's eruption pulses. Here, we investigated high-resolution palynological data through the CPE from the Jiyuan terrestrial Basin in North China. Our data reveal four distinct phases of terrestrial vegetation transition from xerophytes to hygrophytes, with each shift accompanied by pronounced climate transformations from relatively cool-dry to relatively warm-humid conditions. Each vegetation shift is linked temporally with volcanic activity indicators including negative organic carbon isotope excursions, Hg and Hg/TOC peaks, and near-zero Δ¹⁹⁹Hg isotope values. After the first, third and fourth eruptions, vegetation recovery showed resilience with floral reassembly broadly similar to pre-eruption floras. In contrast, the impact of the second eruption was apparently larger and triggered more dramatic changes including a surge in terrestrial plant diversity and hygrophytic species, with vegetation recovery having a distinct and more modern floral composition (e.g., Dipteridaceae, Matoniaceae, Pinaceae, and Podocarpaceae) that persisted after the CPE. Our findings offer new insights into the links between LIP volcanism and terrestrial vegetation and climate changes during the CPE, and demonstrates differential floral and climatic responses to different scales of major CO₂-driven global warming events in deep time in otherwise similar environmental contexts.

晚三叠世卡尼世雨积期（CPE; ~ 234-232 Ma）经历了陆地生态系统、植被和气候的深刻变化，这可能与Wrangellia大火成岩省（LIP）的喷发有关。尽管如此，详细的陆生植物记录的缺乏限制了人们对这些植物和气候变化是否与弗兰格利亚火山喷发脉冲同步的理解。本文对济源陆相盆地的高分辨率孢粉资料进行了CPE分析。我们的数据揭示了陆地植被从旱生植物向湿生植物转变的四个不同阶段，每个转变都伴随着明显的气候变化，从相对凉爽干燥的条件到相对温暖潮湿的条件。每一次植被转移在时间上都与火山活动指标相关，包括负有机碳同位素漂移、Hg和Hg/TOC峰值以及接近于零的Δ199Hg同位素值。在第一次、第三次和第四次喷发后，植被恢复表现出恢复能力，植物的重组与喷发前的植物区系大致相似。相比之下，第二次火山喷发的影响更大，引发了更剧烈的变化，包括陆生植物多样性和湿生植物种类的激增，植被恢复具有明显的更现代的植物组成（如龙门科、松科、松科和Podocarpaceae），这些植物组成在CPE之后持续存在。我们的研究结果为CPE期间LIP火山活动与陆地植被和气候变化之间的联系提供了新的见解，并证明了在其他类似环境背景下，植物和气候对不同尺度的co2驱动的全球变暖事件的不同响应。

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引用次数: 0

Reduced spatial heterogeneity of day-night temperature variability difference under global changes 降低了全球变化下昼夜温差的空间异质性

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105311

Fayong Liu , Fangli Wei , Yuanyuan Huang

Temperature and its variability underpin numerous earth system processes and human activities, yet variations occurring under darkness remain insufficiently explored. In this study, we quantified nighttime temperature variability (Night_var) and daytime temperature variability (Day_var) using three complementary methods: range, range/mean, and standard deviation, allowing us to examine both their shared patterns and distinct characteristics. Globally, both Day_var and Night_var declined significantly (−0.18 °C century⁻¹, P < 0.05), yet slower than the diurnal temperature range (−0.23 °C century⁻¹, 1950–2023). The day–night temperature variability difference (Differ_var) showed great spatial heterogeneity, with higher Differ_var in tropics while lower in high latitudes. These regional contrasts have been weakening, attributed to the declining albedo in northern mid-to-high latitudes and less sensible heat flux from surface to atmosphere in tropics. The overall shrinkage of the spatial heterogeneity in Differ_var during historical period indicates different biomes are experiencing divergent impacts of Day_var and Night_var changes. This study addresses knowledge gaps in temperature variability at diurnal scale, offering new insights into the global shifted temperature regimes under climate change.

温度及其变化是许多地球系统过程和人类活动的基础，但在黑暗中发生的变化仍未得到充分探索。在这项研究中，我们使用三种互补的方法：极差、极差/平均值和标准差来量化夜间温度变异性（Nightvar）和白天温度变异性（Dayvar），使我们能够检查它们的共同模式和不同特征。在全球范围内，日差和夜差均显著下降（- 0.18°C century - 1, P < 0.05），但低于日温变化幅度（- 0.23°C century - 1, 1950-2023）。昼夜温差表现出较大的空间异质性，热带地区温差较大，高纬度地区温差较小。由于北部中高纬度地区反照率下降，热带地区地表到大气的感热通量减少，这些区域差异正在减弱。差异值空间异质性在历史时期的整体缩小表明不同的生物群系受到日差和夜差变化的不同影响。本研究解决了日尺度温度变化的知识缺口，为气候变化下的全球温度变化机制提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The footprint of urbanization on land surface phenology in China 中国城市化足迹对地表物候的影响

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105306

Jialu Gong , Jianjun Zhao , Yeqiao Wang , Hongyan Zhang , LiangXian Fan , Tao Xiong , Yuyu Zhou

Urbanization exerts a considerable influence on land surface phenology (LSP), however, the extent and spatial footprint of such impacts have not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we derived the LSP parameters based on the MOD13Q1 product and quantified urbanization's impact along an area-based urban-rural gradient. According to our findings, urbanization causes the start of the growing season (SOS) to begin earlier and the end of the growing season (EOS) to terminate later in urban areas. This effect exhibits a logarithmic decay pattern along the urban-rural gradient, with its footprint proportional to urban size. For the total area, urbanization's footprint on SOS was 5 to 5.5 times the urban size beyond its boundary, while that of EOS ranged from 4.5 to 5.5 times. The urban-rural difference in SOS was greater in regions characterized by cold dry winters, while the difference in EOS was greater in arid regions and climate zones with hot summers and dry winters. Urbanization exerted a broader footprint on LSP where adequate moisture and mild summer temperatures converge. Cropland-dominated areas exhibited greater urban-rural differences in EOS and a wider footprint of urbanization on SOS. These findings highlight the necessity of considering climate background, latitude, and vegetation type in urban-rural phenology research, which is crucial for understanding the variations in urban ecosystems under the backdrop of global climate change.

城市化对地表物候的影响相当大，但其影响程度和空间足迹尚未得到深入研究。本文基于MOD13Q1产品推导出LSP参数，并沿区域城乡梯度量化城市化的影响。根据我们的研究结果，城市化导致城市地区生长季节开始（SOS）开始时间提前，生长季节结束（EOS）结束时间推迟。这种效应沿城乡梯度呈对数衰减模式，其足迹与城市规模成正比。就总面积而言，SOS上的城市化足迹是其边界以外城市规模的5 ~ 5.5倍，EOS上的城市化足迹为4.5 ~ 5.5倍。在冬季寒冷干燥的地区，SOS的城乡差异较大，而在夏季炎热冬季干燥的干旱地区，EOS的城乡差异较大。城市化对LSP产生了更广泛的影响，那里有充足的水分和温和的夏季温度汇聚。以耕地为主的地区在SOS上表现出更大的城乡差异，城市化对SOS的影响更大。这些发现强调了在城乡物候研究中考虑气候背景、纬度和植被类型的必要性，这对于理解全球气候变化背景下城市生态系统的变化至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-millennial reconstruction of fire return intervals from a fynbos – Afrotemperate forest ecotone in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa: Paleoecological implications for present-day management 南非开普区温带-温带森林交错带复火间隔的千年重建：对当今管理的古生态学意义

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105307

Stella G. Mosher , Mitchell J. Power , Lynne J. Quick , Brian M. Chase , Torsten Haberzettl , Thomas Kasper , Simon C. Brewer , David R. Braun , J. Tyler Faith

In South Africa's highly biodiverse and fire-adapted Cape Floristic Region, fire is critical to maintaining ecosystem health and for the reproductive strategies of many endemic species. Ecological studies have identified fire return intervals (FRIs) of approximately 10–15 years. However, the short timescale of these observations, derived from anthropogenically impacted systems, means that the extent to which these FRIs are maintained over millennia, and how vegetation dynamics co-vary with fire frequency is poorly resolved. Here, we analyze a high-resolution macrocharcoal record from a lacustrine sedimentary archive to reconstruct fire return intervals over four millennia at a fynbos-afrotemperate forest ecotone along South Africa's southern Cape coast. We address variability in fire activity (i.e., more or less burning) and FRIs in relation to pollen-derived reconstructions of local vegetation change and regional shifts in moisture availability over the past 4200 years. We document a range of FRIs between 10.5 and 166 years. We find that FRIs shift towards longer intervals, fire activity decreases, and afrotemperate forest vegetation becomes more abundant during periods of increased moisture availability. Our historical (1890–2013 CE) FRI reconstruction is consistent with ∼10–15 years between burns, but one must only look back a few centuries to see FRIs far outside the range of variability observed today. This suggests that our present-day ecological lens is not representative of the full range of natural variability experienced at this site over the past four millennia. This work provides long-term ecological context to land managers working towards the conservation and protection of fynbos.

在南非高度生物多样性和适应火的开普植物区，火对维持生态系统健康和许多特有物种的繁殖策略至关重要。生态学研究已经确定了火灾恢复间隔（fri）大约为10-15 年。然而，这些观测的时间尺度较短，来源于受人为影响的系统，这意味着这些森林植被指数维持千年的程度，以及植被动态如何随火灾频率共同变化的问题很难解决。在这里，我们分析了来自湖相沉积档案的高分辨率宏碳记录，以重建南非南开普海岸的芬博斯-非温带森林过渡带4000多年的火灾恢复间隔。在过去的4200 年里，我们研究了火灾活动（即燃烧或多或少）的变异性，以及与花粉衍生的当地植被变化重建和水分可用性的区域变化有关的fri。我们记录了在10.5至166 年之间的fri范围。我们发现，在水分有效度增加的时期，森林植被变化向更长的间隔转变，火灾活动减少，非温带森林植被变得更加丰富。我们的历史（1890-2013 CE） FRI重建与烧伤之间的~ 10-15 年一致，但必须回顾几个世纪，才能看到FRI远远超出了今天观察到的变异性范围。这表明，我们现在的生态镜头并不能代表过去四千年来这个地方经历的全部自然变化。这项工作为致力于保存和保护芬博斯的土地管理者提供了长期的生态背景。

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引用次数: 0

Declining anthropogenic wildfires in South American savannas 南美大草原人为野火减少

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105305

Yuxin Lou , Qi Zhang , Yaqi Jiang , Cong Gao , Chunming Shi

Wildfires represent a fundamental natural disturbance process in terrestrial ecosystems, originating from both natural phenomena and human activities. Differentiating natural fires (NFs) from anthropogenic fires (AFs) and elucidating their spatial heterogeneity and underlying drivers are critical for developing targeted wildfire management strategies. We applied a classification framework integrating lightning fire probability (LFP) with the Human Footprint (HFP) index, validating it against North American wildfire attribution records and achieving 73.5 % accuracy for NF and 85.7 % for AF. This approach enabled systematic classification of fire origins across South American savannas. Spatiotemporal analyses reveal divergent trends: AFs exhibited significant declines in frequency, burned area, and associated carbon emissions, whereas NFs exhibited statistically non-significant increases across all metrics. These opposing patterns are primarily attributable to region-specific fire suppression policies targeting AFs and intensifying hot and dry conditions driven by anthropogenic climate change that promote NFs. Although total AFs occurrences outnumbered NFs, fire activity intensities were significantly higher for NFs. Furthermore, correlations between fire activity and climatic/fuel indicators were significantly stronger for NFs than for AFs. Collectively, these findings provide an empirical foundation for designing targeted wildfire management frameworks that explicitly account for the distinct drivers and responses of NFs and AFs.

野火是陆地生态系统中一种基本的自然干扰过程，其根源既有自然现象，也有人类活动。区分自然火灾和人为火灾并阐明其空间异质性和潜在驱动因素对于制定有针对性的野火管理策略至关重要。我们应用了一个整合闪电火灾概率（LFP）和人类足迹（HFP）指数的分类框架，根据北美野火归因记录对其进行验证，NF和AF的准确率分别达到73.5 %和85.7 %。这种方法能够对南美大草原的火源进行系统分类。时空分析显示了不同的趋势：AFs的频率、燃烧面积和相关的碳排放量显著下降，而NFs在所有指标上都表现出统计上不显著的增加。这些相反的模式主要归因于针对AFs的区域特定灭火政策和人为气候变化导致的炎热和干燥条件加剧，从而促进了NFs。虽然AFs总发生次数超过NFs，但NFs的火灾活动强度明显更高。此外，森林森林的火灾活动与气候/燃料指标之间的相关性显著强于森林森林。总的来说，这些发现为设计有针对性的野火管理框架提供了经验基础，这些框架明确考虑了森林大火和森林大火的不同驱动因素和反应。

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引用次数: 0