Biological Conservation最新文献_第2页

Assessment of multidimensional diversity and conservation of threatened timber trees in China under climate change 气候变化下中国濒危用材树种的多维多样性评估与保护

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110871

Jian-Lin Hu , Xiu-Qin Ci , Xiao-Yan Zhang , Run Zhou , Jian-Hua Xiao , Zhi-Fang Liu , Can-Yu Zhang , Xuan Jin , Jie Li

Understanding spatial patterns of multidimensional diversity is crucial for effective conservation planning, especially in mountainous regions that are often biodiversity hotspots. This study focused on assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of 110 threatened timber tree species in China, combining species distribution models and phylogenetic frameworks to quantify multidimensional diversity indices. The research aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of these indices in guiding the prioritization of protected areas and conservation strategies in the face of climate change. The findings revealed that Chinese protected areas are projected to experience a significant decline in their ability to protect the top 15 % hotspots for evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) species under future climate scenarios. This decline ranges from 17.11 % to 29.93 %, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies. Energy-related factors, particularly annual mean temperature and temperature annual range, were identified as key drivers of timber tree distribution patterns. Based on these results, the study advocate for the integration of multidimensional diversity indices into conservation priority evaluation frameworks and considering species' evolutionary history and vulnerability when determining regional biodiversity targets. This approach can help improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the face of ongoing climate change.

了解多维多样性的空间模式对于有效的保护规划至关重要，尤其是在通常是生物多样性热点地区的山区。本研究重点评估了气候变化对中国110种濒危用材树种分布的影响，结合物种分布模型和系统发育框架量化了多维多样性指数。研究旨在评估这些指数在指导保护区优先排序和面对气候变化的保护战略方面的有效性。研究结果表明，在未来气候情景下，中国保护区保护前15%的进化独特和全球濒危（EDGE）物种热点地区的能力预计将大幅下降。下降幅度从17.11%到29.93%不等，这凸显了对适应性保护战略的迫切需要。研究发现，与能源相关的因素，尤其是年平均气温和气温年变化范围，是影响用材林分布模式的关键因素。基于这些结果，研究提倡将多维多样性指数纳入保护优先评估框架，并在确定区域生物多样性目标时考虑物种的进化历史和脆弱性。这种方法有助于在面对持续的气候变化时提高保护工作的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding and predicting infection dynamics for an endangered amphibian using long-term surveys of wild and translocated frogs 利用对野生和移栖青蛙的长期调查，了解和预测一种濒危两栖动物的感染动态

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110834

Talisin T. Hammond , Adam R. Backlin , Elizabeth A. Gallegos , Debra M. Shier , Ronald R. Swaisgood , Robert N. Fisher

Amphibians are a prominent component of Earth's sixth mass extinction and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a primary driver of declines. Although Bd dynamics are well studied, the environmental drivers, exacerbating risk factors, and value of conservation interventions like translocations remain challenging to predict. Here, we present results from two decades of Bd monitoring for mountain yellow-legged frogs (Rana muscosa) in the southern California Transverse and Peninsular mountain ranges. We describe Bd prevalence and infection intensity across sites; model how variables associated with climate, habitat, and populations relate to prevalence; and integrate Bd data from wild and translocated frogs to test whether a machine learning system can predict infection prevalence at new sites. Our findings indicate substantial spatiotemporal variation in Bd dynamics. Bd was present at all sites but prevalence and infection intensities were often low. Environmental features including temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and shortwave radiation explained significant variation in Bd prevalence, but their predictive value varied across mountain ranges. Although clear environmental predictors across populations remain elusive, we provide evidence for the importance of warmer and wetter springs and winters, with implications of increased risk under climate change predictions. We also found evidence for higher Bd prevalence among translocated than wild frogs. Although our machine learning model predicted a Bd prevalence threshold with relatively high accuracy, understanding the factors driving within- and between-population Bd dynamics is complex. Taken together, our findings provide new insights into the complicated role of Bd in amphibian declines and suggest revised management approaches.

两栖动物是地球第六次生物大灭绝的一个重要组成部分，而真菌病原体蝙蝠蛾（Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis，Bd）是导致两栖动物数量减少的主要原因。尽管对 Bd 动态进行了深入研究，但环境驱动因素、加剧风险的因素以及迁移等保护干预措施的价值仍难以预测。在此，我们介绍了二十年来对南加州横断山脉和半岛山脉的山黄腿蛙（Rana muscosa）进行 Bd 监测的结果。我们描述了不同地点的 Bd 感染率和感染强度；模拟了与气候、栖息地和种群相关的变量与感染率之间的关系；并整合了来自野生蛙和迁移蛙的 Bd 数据，以测试机器学习系统能否预测新地点的感染率。我们的研究结果表明，Bd 的动态时空变化很大。所有地点都存在 Bd，但流行率和感染强度通常较低。包括温度、降水、植被和短波辐射在内的环境特征解释了 Bd 流行率的显著变化，但它们的预测价值在不同山脉之间存在差异。尽管在不同种群中仍无法找到明确的环境预测因素，但我们提供的证据表明，春季和冬季更暖和、更潮湿非常重要，这意味着在气候变化的预测下风险会增加。我们还发现，有证据表明，被转移的青蛙比野生青蛙的Bd感染率更高。虽然我们的机器学习模型能比较准确地预测出Bd流行阈值，但要理解种群内和种群间Bd动态的驱动因素还很复杂。综上所述，我们的研究结果为了解 Bd 在两栖动物减少过程中的复杂作用提供了新的视角，并提出了新的管理方法。

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引用次数: 0

Representing biodiversity decline data by manipulating familiar audio files to create emotional responses: A novel sonification method of soundwave-level deletion 通过处理熟悉的音频文件来表示生物多样性减少的数据，从而产生情感反应：声波级删除的新型声化方法

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110852

Edward J. Martin , Thomas R. Meagher , Daniel Barker

We developed a sonification algorithm to communicate data on biodiversity decline. We used a method of data representation that caused emotional effects on listeners, with the aim of enhancing personal awareness of impacts of biodiversity decline to encourage listeners to affect change. To create the emotional effect, we chose to degrade familiar audio files as our mode of sonification. Our algorithm takes as input an audio file in a wave (.wav) format and a dataset: the WWF's Living Planet Index (LPI) from 1970 to 2018. The algorithm deletes soundwave data from the audio file proportional to the decline of biodiversity measured by the data. Thus, our auditory metaphor uses the progressive damage of the audio file at later timestamps to represent the environmental damage of biodiversity decline. To investigate the subjective listening experience of the sonifications, we held five focus groups with 13 participants and conducted thematic content analysis of the transcribed audio recordings. Participants listened to various instances of the algorithm using different input sound files, including vocal and instrumental music, a field recording, and spoken aloud poems. Focus groups suggested the algorithm was successful in communicating the data, with all participants acknowledging this success. Participants described experiencing vivid auditory metaphors and reported strong emotional responses, including sadness, loss, stress, anxiety, and optimism. Participants affirmed the greater presence of emotional response compared to a static graph-based visualisation of the same data. We propose that sonification through degradation of familiar audio files will have broad applicability in communication and public engagement with conservation issues.

我们开发了一种声化算法来传播生物多样性减少的数据。我们使用了一种能对听众产生情感影响的数据表示方法，目的是提高个人对生物多样性减少影响的认识，鼓励听众影响变革。为了产生情感效果，我们选择了对熟悉的音频文件进行降解，作为我们的声化模式。我们的算法将波形（.wav）格式的音频文件和一个数据集作为输入：世界自然基金会 1970 年至 2018 年的地球生命指数（LPI）。该算法从音频文件中删除声波数据，其比例与数据测量的生物多样性衰退程度成正比。因此，我们的听觉隐喻利用音频文件在较晚时间戳的逐步损坏来代表生物多样性衰退对环境造成的破坏。为了调查声波化的主观听觉体验，我们与 13 位参与者举行了五次焦点小组讨论，并对转录的录音进行了主题内容分析。参与者聆听了该算法使用不同输入声音文件的各种实例，包括声乐和器乐、现场录音和朗读诗歌。焦点小组表明，该算法成功地传达了数据，所有参与者都承认这一成功。参与者描述了生动的听觉隐喻，并报告了强烈的情绪反应，包括悲伤、失落、压力、焦虑和乐观。与相同数据的静态图形可视化相比，参与者肯定了情绪反应的更大存在。我们建议，通过对熟悉的音频文件进行降解来实现声波化，这将在保护问题的沟通和公众参与方面具有广泛的适用性。

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引用次数: 0

Risk avoidance during dispersal: Temporal and behavioral shifts in selection by non-resident eastern wolves (Canis c.f. lycaon) 分散过程中的风险规避：非居民东部狼（Canis c.f. lycaon）选择的时间和行为转变

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110879

Connor A. Thompson , John F. Benson , Brent R. Patterson

Dispersal is important for connectivity and persistence of small, disjunct wildlife populations. However, in human-altered landscapes dispersing animals are often more likely than residents to use anthropogenic features that increase mortality risk. As such, quantifying spatial and temporal responses of dispersing animals to anthropogenic features will improve our understanding of the potential for small, isolated populations to expand in human-altered landscapes. The distribution of eastern wolves (Canis c.f. lycaon; a threatened species in Canada) is limited to portions of eastern Canada within and adjacent to the population core in Algonquin Park. Recently, it was found that non-resident eastern wolves dispersing outside of Algonquin Park survive poorly, primarily due to high rates of human-caused mortality. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on 26 non-resident eastern wolves. We evaluated resource selection of dispersing individuals during different movement states to better understand their behavioral responses to anthropogenic landscape features during this critical, but risky period of their life history. Eastern wolves avoided areas with high building density during the day. However, during directed movements outside the winter period, eastern wolves selected areas closer to unpaved roads and areas with higher building densities at night. During winter, eastern wolves selected areas with high building densities at night while displaying tortuous movements. We demonstrate that harvested species may increase and relax avoidance of anthropogenic features at both daily and seasonal timescales. Failing to account for temporal and state-specific variation in resource selection patterns of dispersing animals may underestimate their ability to move through human-altered landscapes.

散布对于小型、不相连的野生动物种群的连通性和持久性非常重要。然而，在人类改变的地貌中，散居动物往往比常住动物更有可能利用会增加死亡风险的人为地貌。因此，量化分散动物对人为特征的空间和时间反应，将有助于我们更好地了解孤立的小种群在人类改变的景观中扩大的潜力。东部狼（Canis c.f. lycaon；加拿大濒危物种）的分布仅限于加拿大东部阿尔冈昆公园种群核心区内及附近的部分地区。最近发现，分散到阿尔冈昆公园以外的非居民东部狼的生存状况很差，这主要是由于人为因素造成的高死亡率。我们在 26 头非居民东部狼身上安装了全球定位系统项圈。我们评估了散居个体在不同移动状态下的资源选择，以更好地了解它们在这一关键但危险的生活史时期对人为景观特征的行为反应。东方狼在白天会避开建筑物密集的区域。然而，在冬季以外的定向移动过程中，东部狼在夜间会选择离未铺设路面的道路较近的区域和建筑物密度较高的区域。在冬季，东部狼在夜间选择建筑密度高的区域，同时表现出迂回的运动。我们的研究表明，被捕猎的物种可能会在日常和季节时间尺度上增加或放松对人为特征的回避。如果不考虑散布动物资源选择模式的时间和特定状态变化，可能会低估它们在人为改变的地貌中移动的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Biodiversity of pollinators in agricultural landscapes and the role of weather and conservation management 农业景观中传粉昆虫的生物多样性以及天气和保护管理的作用

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110875

Kristýna Nehybová, Jakub Horák

Myriads of insect species pollinate our economic plants for free and temperate grasslands are important ecosystems for the survival of native pollinators.

Our study was conducted to compare pollinator biodiversity indices between protected and agricultural grasslands in the context of changing weather.

We studied pollinators within the Polabí lowland (Czech Republic) in 2022. We focused on the species richness and abundance of Lepidoptera and Coleoptera and the population density of the Honey bee (Apis mellifera mellifera). Protected areas and agricultural grasslands were compared using two factors: (i) the influence of immediate weather at 126 sites and (ii) the influence of seasonal weather at 30 sites.

We found that the most influential characteristic was floral abundance, followed by immediate weather, conservation management and seasonal weather. Management primarily influenced pollinator species diversity. Floral abundance intensity affected insects across groups. We observed a very conclusive effect of immediate weather, especially temperature and wind. Seasonal weather only influenced butterfly species richness.

Notably, immediate weather and floral abundance were much more influential than the influence of management. Equally striking was the low influence of seasonal weather. It appears that the immediate weather and floral abundance strongly influenced pollinators. Therefore, weather can influence the accurate assessment of the impact of management in the landscapes.

We conclude that weather strongly influences insect pollinators, but conservation management remains a key measure for supporting pollinators. The good news is that pollinators can find habitat outside of protected areas thanks to complementation in the form of sufficient plant flowering time.

无数昆虫物种为我们的经济植物免费授粉，温带草原是本地传粉昆虫生存的重要生态系统。我们的研究是为了在天气变化的背景下比较受保护草原和农用草原的传粉昆虫生物多样性指数。我们重点研究了鳞翅目和鞘翅目昆虫的物种丰富度和丰度，以及蜜蜂（Apis mellifera mellifera）的种群密度。利用两个因素对保护区和农用草地进行了比较：(我们发现，影响最大的特征是花的丰度，其次是即时天气、保护管理和季节性天气。管理主要影响传粉昆虫的物种多样性。花卉丰度对各组昆虫都有影响。我们观察到近期天气的影响非常明显，尤其是温度和风力。值得注意的是，即时天气和花卉丰度的影响远远大于管理的影响。同样引人注目的是，季节性天气的影响较小。由此看来，即时天气和花卉丰度对传粉昆虫的影响很大。我们的结论是，天气对昆虫授粉昆虫有很大影响，但保护管理仍然是支持授粉昆虫的关键措施。好消息是，授粉昆虫可以在保护区外找到栖息地，这要归功于充足的植物花期。

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引用次数: 0

Potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial Aotearoa New Zealand's birds reveal high risk for endemic species – A reply to Weinhäupl & Devenish-Nelson 气候变化对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦陆地鸟类的潜在影响揭示了特有物种的高风险--对 Weinhäupl 和 Devenish-Nelson 的答复

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110873

Scott D. Bourke , Ann-Kathrin V. Schlesselmann , Scott Jarvie , Joanne M. Monks

引用次数: 0

Effects of agricultural intensity and landscape pattern on terrestrial birds in China's agroecosystem differ between temperature zones 不同温度带的农业强度和景观格局对中国农业生态系统中陆生鸟类的影响各不相同

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110876

Jing Liao, Taxing Zhang, Xingcheng He, Pei Zhang, Jianghong Ran

Agriculture expansion and development have caused a biodiversity decline including birds. China has extensive agricultural lands and high farmland biodiversity; however, how agricultural landscapes and practices affect bird diversity in China is unclear. We estimated the spatial patterns of bird species richness (SR), functional diversity (FD), and the standardized effect size of the mean functional distance (SES.MFD) in China's agricultural region using the distribution data of 652 terrestrial bird species predicted by improved MaxEnt-modeling approaches, and assessed their relationships with landscape pattern and agricultural intensity in different temperature zones. Both bird SR and FD generally increased from northwest to South China, while the SES.MFD trend was the opposite. Bird SR and FD were positively related to woodland proportion, wetland proportion and landscape diversity. Yet impacts of agricultural intensity varied between temperature zones, showing negative effects on bird SR and FD in tropical, subtropical and warm temperate zones, but positive in middle temperature and plateau climate zones. With the increase in agricultural intensity, the community structure of birds clustered in tropical, subtropical and warm temperate zones, but dispersed in middle temperature zone. These results affirm natural landscape and landscape heterogeneity in maintaining terrestrial bird diversity in China's agroecosystems. Further, region-specific farmland biodiversity strategies are recommended, highlighting the management of cropland and agrochemical use in South China and taking advantage of the cropland value for bird conservation in relatively cold regions.

农业的扩张和发展导致包括鸟类在内的生物多样性减少。中国拥有广阔的农田和较高的农田生物多样性，但农业景观和农业实践如何影响中国的鸟类多样性尚不清楚。我们利用改进的 MaxEnt 建模方法预测的 652 种陆生鸟类的分布数据，估计了中国农业区鸟类物种丰富度（SR）、功能多样性（FD）和平均功能距离的标准化效应大小（SES.MFD）的空间格局，并评估了它们与不同温度带的景观格局和农业强度的关系。从西北到华南，鸟类的SR和FD普遍增加，而SES.MFD的趋势则相反。鸟类SR和FD与林地比例、湿地比例和景观多样性呈正相关。然而，农业强度对不同温度带的影响各不相同，在热带、亚热带和暖温带，农业强度对鸟类SR和FD的影响为负，而在中温带和高原气候区，农业强度对鸟类SR和FD的影响为正。随着农业强度的增加，鸟类群落结构在热带、亚热带和暖温带聚集，而在中温带分散。这些结果肯定了自然景观和景观异质性在维持中国农业生态系统陆生鸟类多样性方面的作用。此外，还提出了针对不同区域的农田生物多样性战略建议，强调华南地区的耕地管理和农用化学品使用，并利用耕地价值保护相对寒冷地区的鸟类。

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引用次数: 0

Widely used datasets of wind energy infrastructures can seriously underestimate onshore turbines in the Mediterranean 广泛使用的风能基础设施数据集可能会严重低估地中海地区的陆上涡轮机数量

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110870

Jacopo Cerri , Chiara Costantino , Davide De Rosa , Dhyan Anaja Banič , Giuliano Urgeghe , Ilaria Fozzi , Joel Echeverria , Mauro Aresu , Fiammetta Berlinguer

Reconciling wind energy development with biodiversity conservation requires accurate maps. As the coordinates of wind turbines are often not publicly available, many conservationists use datasets curated by research groups or volunteers, whose accuracy is unclear.

We used satellite images to assess the accuracy of three of these datasets, at portraying onshore turbines currently operating in Sardinia (Italy). We recorded 1155 turbines, far more than those reported by Smeraldo et al. (n = 914), Open Street Map (n = 766) and Atlaimpianti, the only public map of wind turbines in Italy (n = 507).

Our findings question the accuracy of open-source datasets about onshore wind energy infrastructures, particularly where the development of renewables is going fast. Before being used for research or policy these data should be validated on the field. Create, validate and disclose accurate data about these infrastructures should become a priority for environmental agencies worldwide.

协调风能开发与生物多样性保护之间的关系需要精确的地图。由于风力涡轮机的坐标通常不公开，许多保护主义者使用由研究团体或志愿者策划的数据集，但这些数据集的准确性并不明确。我们使用卫星图像评估了其中三个数据集的准确性，这些数据集描绘了目前在撒丁岛（意大利）运行的陆上涡轮机。我们记录了 1155 个涡轮机，远远多于 Smeraldo 等人（n = 914）、开放街道地图（n = 766）和 Atlaimpianti（意大利唯一的公共风力涡轮机地图）（n = 507）所报告的数量。在将这些数据用于研究或政策之前，应在实地进行验证。创建、验证和公开有关这些基础设施的准确数据应成为全球环境机构的首要任务。

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引用次数: 0

Land cover change in and around South African protected areas 南非保护区及其周边的土地覆被变化

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110844

Izak P.J. Smit , Kristal Maze , Brian W. van Wilgen

Land cover change and habitat loss are major threats to biodiversity, with protected areas (PAs) playing a crucial role in mitigation. This study compares the natural cover remaining within South Africa's PA network to a 5-km buffer zone around PAs. This comparison acts as an indicator of the imminent threats posed to PAs by nearby land use changes and as a measure of the integrity of natural land cover within them. This is done by comparing satellite-derived land cover classes (natural/semi-natural; agriculture; built-up/mining) collected over three decades within PAs and buffers across various PA sizes, in different biomes and across a rainfall gradient.

Results show that South Africa's PAs, which cover nearly 10 % of the country, have more natural land cover than their associated buffer zones. Larger and low-rainfall PAs retain the highest natural cover. However, natural cover drops by 14.8 % just 1 km outside PAs, mirroring the national average natural cover outside PAs. Significant land cover change occurs within the 5-km buffer, especially in high-rainfall areas and around smaller PAs, with the most pronounced changes in the Indian Ocean Coastal Belt, Fynbos, and Grassland biomes.

These changes in the buffer limit PA expansion opportunities and pose risks to their integrity. To meet global conservation targets and human needs, setting land aside for conservation must be complemented by additional initiatives. Beyond protecting natural landscapes within, PAs should promote sustainable land use beyond their boundaries. We argue for new area-based conservation measures that balance ecological, social, and financial goals, fostering better integration of conservation and production landscapes.

土地植被变化和栖息地丧失是生物多样性面临的主要威胁，而保护区（PAs）在缓解这一威胁方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究将南非保护区网络内剩余的自然植被与保护区周围 5 公里的缓冲区进行了比较。这种比较既可以作为附近土地利用变化对保护区造成的直接威胁的指标，也可以作为保护区内自然植被完整性的衡量标准。这项工作是通过比较三十年来在保护区和缓冲区内收集到的不同规模、不同生物群落和不同降雨梯度的卫星衍生土地覆被等级（自然/半自然；农业；建筑/采矿）来完成的。面积较大、降雨量较低的保护区自然覆盖率最高。然而，保护区外 1 公里处的自然覆盖率下降了 14.8%，与保护区外的全国平均自然覆盖率相当。5 公里缓冲区内的土地覆被发生了显著变化，尤其是在高降雨量地区和较小的保护区周围，印度洋海岸带、芬波斯和草原生物群落的变化最为明显。为了实现全球保护目标和满足人类需求，在划出土地用于保护的同时，还必须采取其他措施。除了保护保护区内的自然景观外，保护区还应该促进保护区边界外土地的可持续利用。我们主张采取新的基于区域的保护措施，平衡生态、社会和经济目标，促进保护与生产景观的更好结合。

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引用次数: 0

Land use-driven shifts in shorebird habitat connectivity along the Yellow and Bohai Sea coasts: Dynamics and scenario predictions 黄渤海沿岸海岸鸟类栖息地连通性在土地利用驱动下的变化：动态和情景预测

IF 4.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110869

Cheng Yang , Houlang Duan , Xiubo Yu

Drastic land use change and human activities have seriously degraded the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Yellow and Bohai Sea. In recent years, the Chinese government has implemented a series of measures to protect and restore coastal wetlands ecosystem. However, the effects of this land use change on habitat connectivity and the effects of related policies on future habitat connectivity remain unclear. We selected 39 representative shorebird species in the coastal wetlands of the Yellow and Bohai Sea and evaluated the effects of historical and future land use change on the habitat connectivity. Between 2000 and 2020, 67 % of the 39 shorebird species experienced a significant decline in habitat connectivity. The habitat connectivity is expected to continuously decline for 79 % of the species by 2050 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario but increase for 90 % of the species under the ecological protection (EP) scenario. Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay are becoming increasingly important for maintaining habitat connectivity. The overall delta Probability of Connectivity (delta PC, dPC) of artificial wetlands continues to increase. However, significant differences among shorebird species were observed and the total dPC of natural wetlands was still significantly higher than that of artificial wetlands. Prioritizing the protection and restoration of natural habitats and improving the quality of artificial habitats can effectively mitigate the biodiversity conservation risks posed by environmental change. Our research provides important information with implications for the protection and management of coastal wetland ecosystems.

土地利用的剧烈变化和人类活动使黄渤海滨海湿地生态系统严重退化。近年来，中国政府实施了一系列保护和恢复滨海湿地生态系统的措施。然而，土地利用变化对栖息地连通性的影响以及相关政策对未来栖息地连通性的影响仍不清楚。我们在黄渤海滨海湿地选择了 39 种具有代表性的岸鸟，评估了历史和未来土地利用变化对栖息地连通性的影响。从 2000 年到 2020 年，39 种岸鸟中有 67% 的栖息地连通性显著下降。预计到2050年，在 "一切照旧"（BAU）情景下，79%的物种的栖息地连通性将持续下降，而在生态保护（EP）情景下，90%的物种的栖息地连通性将上升。渤海湾和莱州湾对保持栖息地的连通性越来越重要。人工湿地的总体三角洲连通概率（delta PC，dPC）持续上升。但不同种类的岸鸟之间存在明显差异，自然湿地的总连接概率仍明显高于人工湿地。优先保护和恢复自然栖息地，提高人工栖息地的质量，可以有效缓解环境变化带来的生物多样性保护风险。我们的研究为沿海湿地生态系统的保护和管理提供了重要信息。

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引用次数: 0