Biological Conservation最新文献_第5页

Informing conservation problems and actions using an indicator of extinction risk: A detailed assessment of applying the LIFE metric 利用灭绝风险指标通知保护问题和行动：应用生命指标的详细评估

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111663

Alison Eyres , Andy Arnell , Thomas S. Ball , Richard J. Cuthbert , Michael Dales , Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño , Jody Holland , Emilio Luz-Ricca , Anil Madhavapeddy , Leila Pain , Tom Swinfield , Thomas B. White , Andrew Balmford

Extinction is a critical issue, with land-use change the main threat to many terrestrial species. Understanding and tackling this requires global, comparable, and scalable metrics that link land-cover change to extinction risk and are useable across diverse conservation contexts. Here, we demonstrate the flexibility of the new Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions (LIFE) metric through five distinct case studies. First, we explore the near real-time quantification of biodiversity harms in tropical hotspots by integrating LIFE with forest loss data. Second, we couple LIFE with crop distribution and trade data to assess variation in extinction impacts mediated by food consumption – specifically of apples in the UK. Third, we test LIFE's suitability for use in biodiversity compensation through a hypothetical scenario in Sumatra. Fourth, we use LIFE to prioritize competing conservation investments by comparing benefits of area-based projects in Honduras. Finally, we combine LIFE with counterfactual methods to evaluate the effectiveness of a long-term conservation project in Sierra Leone. Together, these examples show that LIFE offers actionable insights into a geographically and thematically wide range of conservation challenges, from land-use planning to sustainable consumption. Like all global metrics, LIFE's broad applicability relies on assumptions and simplifications. It should be used cautiously, and alongside local knowledge and ground-truthing, especially for restoration, offsetting, or fine-scale analysis, and in poorly studied areas. By providing an accompanying “How-to” guide, we aim to ensure LIFE can be used widely to inform understanding of the extinction crisis and support tangible actions to halt it.

灭绝是一个关键问题，土地利用变化是许多陆地物种的主要威胁。理解和解决这一问题需要全球性的、可比较的、可扩展的指标，这些指标将土地覆盖变化与灭绝风险联系起来，并可在不同的保护环境中使用。在这里，我们通过五个不同的案例研究展示了新的土地覆盖变化对未来灭绝（LIFE）指标的灵活性。首先，我们将LIFE与森林损失数据相结合，探索了热带热点地区生物多样性危害的近实时量化。其次，我们将LIFE与作物分布和贸易数据相结合，以评估食物消费介导的灭绝影响的变化-特别是英国的苹果。第三，我们通过苏门答腊岛的一个假设情景测试了LIFE在生物多样性补偿中的适用性。第四，我们使用LIFE通过比较洪都拉斯地区项目的收益来优先考虑竞争性保护投资。最后，我们将LIFE与反事实方法相结合，以评估塞拉利昂长期保护项目的有效性。总之，这些例子表明，LIFE为地理上和主题上广泛的保护挑战提供了可操作的见解，从土地使用规划到可持续消费。像所有全局指标一样，LIFE的广泛适用性依赖于假设和简化。它应该谨慎使用，并与当地知识和地面真相一起使用，特别是在恢复，抵消或精细尺度分析以及研究不足的地区。通过提供附带的“操作指南”，我们的目标是确保LIFE可以广泛使用，以告知对灭绝危机的理解，并支持采取切实行动阻止它。

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引用次数: 0

Water and fire: Wildfires threaten fish habitats across Brazilian biomes, and protected areas offer insufficient safeguards 水和火：野火威胁着巴西生物群落的鱼类栖息地，而保护区提供的保障措施不足

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111692

Gustavo Henrique Soares Guedes, Francisco Gerson Araújo

Temporary wetlands are aquatic ecosystems shaped by alternating wet and dry periods, but the influence of wildfires on their water regimes and biodiversity dynamics remains insufficiently investigated. This study compares fire frequency in temporary wetlands inhabited by annual fishes (Rivulidae) across biomes differing in fire propensity and protection, using a comprehensive spatiotemporal framework across 1161 sites over four decades (1985–2024), and drawing on occurrence records of 187 species, 102 of which are threatened with extinction in Brazil. Results show that wildfires were subject to 57 % of annual fish species and burned 28 % of the temporary wetlands in which they occur. Fire-dependent biomes (Cerrado, Pantanal; with the exception of the Pampa) experienced significantly higher fire frequency than fire-independent (Caatinga) and fire-sensitive (Amazon, Atlantic Forest) biomes. Fire frequency peaked between 2020 and 2024, with regions such as the Amazon exhibiting increasing vulnerability. The majority of burned wetlands in the Caatinga, Atlantic Forest, and Pampa were associated with small fire scars (<50 ha), while large-scale fire events were predominantly concentrated in the Cerrado and Pantanal. Protected areas did not consistently mitigate fire frequency; in some biomes, reserves recorded higher fire frequencies than unprotected areas. Fire can affect annual fish both directly, through egg mortality caused by burning, and indirectly, by altering or destroying the temporary wetland habitats on which they depend. Our findings reveal significant gaps in existing conservation frameworks and underscore the urgent need to integrate proactive fire-management strategies into protected-area governance and broader aquatic-biodiversity planning under intensifying global fire regimes.

临时湿地是由干湿交替期形成的水生生态系统，但野火对其水分状况和生物多样性动态的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究利用巴西187个物种（其中102个物种在巴西濒临灭绝）的发生记录，利用综合时空框架，比较了不同生物群落中不同火灾倾向和保护的年生鱼类（Rivulidae）居住的临时湿地的火灾频率。结果表明，森林野火影响了57%的年度鱼类，烧毁了28%的临时湿地。火灾依赖型生物群落（塞拉多、潘塔纳尔、潘帕草原除外）的火灾频率明显高于非火灾依赖型生物群落（Caatinga）和火灾敏感型生物群落（亚马逊、大西洋森林）。火灾频率在2020年至2024年间达到峰值，亚马逊等地区表现出越来越大的脆弱性。Caatinga、Atlantic Forest和Pampa的大部分湿地都伴有小的火痕（50 ha），而大规模火灾事件主要集中在Cerrado和Pantanal。保护区并没有持续降低火灾频率；在一些生物群落中，保护区记录的火灾频率高于未受保护的地区。火可以直接影响一年生鱼类，通过燃烧造成的卵死亡，间接影响它们，通过改变或破坏它们赖以生存的临时湿地栖息地。我们的研究结果揭示了现有保护框架的重大差距，并强调了在全球火灾加剧的情况下，迫切需要将主动火灾管理战略纳入保护区治理和更广泛的水生生物多样性规划。

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引用次数: 0

Microclimatic moisture and the climate change resilience of lichen epiphytes – an applied model for temperate rainforest 附生地衣的小气候湿度和气候变化适应能力——一个温带雨林的应用模型

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111683

Christopher J. Ellis

The biodiversity response to climate change will, for many species, be determined by continued availability of suitable microclimatic space locally, and the ability to colonise into such refugia through dispersal. This study measured and modelled microclimatic vapour pressure deficit (VPD) for three contrasting woodland study sites, to purposefully extend microclimatic modelling to lichen epiphytes. Statistical downscaling indicated that VPD is explained by macroclimatic moisture input (precipitation) and temperature (saturated vapour pressure), with important and locally modifying effects of elevation, landscape topography, and canopy structure. Allowing for over-fitting controls, niche models for lichen epiphyte abundance were improved when including microclimatic VPD in addition to precipitation. A niche model for lichen indicators – species which determine the conservation status of UK lowland temperate rainforest – was projected at a 5 m grid-scale for a climate baseline, and three climate change scenarios (2040s, RCP 4.5; 2060s, RCP 6; 2080s, RCP 8.5), over five temperate rainforest National Nature Reserves (NNRs). Resilience of each NNR was estimated as the proportion of extant microhabitats that have an equivalent or improved microclimate (relative to the climate baseline) at incrementing spatial distances from 10 to 100 m. Despite microclimatic buffering, resilience of the NNRs was found to be limited under their current configuration. Resilience was higher for more northerly (cooler) sites, and for sites with a greater woodland extent. Resilience could be further enhanced by woodland expansion for topographically variable landscapes that have been historically deforested, with tree regeneration/planting targeted to situations that offer future microclimatic refugia.

对许多物种来说，生物多样性对气候变化的反应将取决于当地适宜的小气候空间的持续可用性，以及通过扩散在这些避难所定居的能力。本研究测量和模拟了三个不同林地研究点的小气候蒸汽压差（VPD），有目的地将小气候模拟扩展到地苔附生植物。统计降尺度表明，VPD是由宏观气候湿度输入（降水）和温度（饱和蒸汽压）解释的，海拔、景观地形和冠层结构对VPD具有重要的局地调节作用。考虑到过度拟合控制，当包括小气候VPD和降水时，地衣附生菌丰度的生态位模型得到了改进。在5个温带雨林国家级自然保护区（NNRs）上，以5米网格尺度对气候基线和3种气候变化情景（2040年代，RCP 4.5； 2060年代，RCP 6； 2080年代，RCP 8.5）进行了地衣指标生态位模型的预估。每个NNR的恢复力被估计为在10到100 m的空间距离上具有相同或改善的小气候（相对于气候基线）的现存微生境的比例。尽管有小气候缓冲作用，但研究发现，在目前的配置下，nnr的恢复能力有限。恢复力越靠北（越冷）的地点和林地面积越大的地点越高。对于历史上被砍伐过的地形多变的景观，可以通过林地扩张进一步增强恢复能力，同时针对未来提供小气候避难所的情况进行树木再生/种植。

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引用次数: 0

Victims of the cure: Determining the pollinator and necrophage biodiversity costs of Japanese beetle [Popillia japonica] traps 治愈的受害者：确定日本甲虫（Popillia japonica）陷阱的传粉者和尸噬体生物多样性成本

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111676

Simone Aubé , Simon Legault , Josée Doyon , Jacques Brodeur

Trapping of the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica Newman (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), a highly invasive beetle, is a widely used monitoring and pest control strategy in North America. However, these traps frequently capture nontarget beneficial insects such as pollinators and necrophages, raising conservation concerns. In this study, we quantified the abundance and diversity of bees (Apidae: Apis mellifera, Bombus spp.) and carrion beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae) inadvertently collected in baited traps across 20 farms along an agricultural intensification gradient in southern Québec, Canada. Using 360 trap samples collected between June and September 2024, we analyzed how bycatch varied with seasonality, Japanese beetle abundance, landscape composition, and weather conditions. We found that pollinator bycatch was higher early in the season and in farms with either highly intensive crops or mostly natural land covers and was positively influenced by high temperature and low humidity. In contrast, necrophage bycatch peaked in late August, and was abundant under cooler, rainy conditions, and mid-level agricultural intensification. Japanese beetle abundance intensified the seasonal effects on both functional groups, likely due to the release of cadaveric volatile compounds. Results suggest that baited Japanese beetle traps pose a limited but non-negligible threat to beneficial insect biodiversity. Our comprehensive bycatch assessment is used to suggest mitigation approaches to minimize unintended captures and promote conservation efforts.

日本甲虫（Popillia japonica Newman，鞘翅目：金龟子科）是一种高度入侵的甲虫，诱捕是北美地区广泛采用的一种监测和害虫防治策略。然而，这些陷阱经常捕获非目标的有益昆虫，如传粉昆虫和尸噬细胞，引起了保护问题。在这项研究中，我们量化了在加拿大魁省南部沿农业集约化梯度的20个农场无意中收集的蜜蜂（蜜蜂科：蜜蜂，Bombus spp.）和腐肉甲虫（鞘翅目：Staphylinidae）的丰度和多样性。利用2024年6月至9月收集的360个捕集器样本，分析了副渔获物随季节、日本甲虫丰度、景观组成和天气条件的变化。研究发现，在作物集约化程度高或土地覆盖多的农场，传粉媒介副渔获量在季节早期较高，且受高温低湿的积极影响。相反，尸噬细胞副渔获量在8月下旬达到高峰，在较凉爽、多雨的条件下和中等农业集约化水平下是丰富的。日本甲虫的丰度增强了这两个功能群的季节性影响，可能是由于尸体挥发性化合物的释放。结果表明，日本甲虫诱捕器对有益昆虫的生物多样性构成了有限但不可忽视的威胁。我们的综合副渔获物评估用于建议缓解方法，以尽量减少意外捕捞和促进保护工作。

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引用次数: 0

Trait-dependent declines of threatened endemic trees following plant invasion on a tropical oceanic island 热带海洋岛屿上受威胁的特有树木在植物入侵后的性状依赖性衰退

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111665

Robin Pouteau , Élise Adrien , Claudine Ah-Peng , Sébastien Albert , Olivier Flores , Bastian Laforgue , Christophe Lavergne , Jean-Yves Meyer , Anaëlle Regen , Margaux Rojat , Sarah Roussel

Biological invasions are a leading cause of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, and particularly so on islands. However, the role of invasive alien plants (IAPs) as a driver of native plant declines and extinctions remains unclear. The inherently slow and gradual nature of plant extinctions, especially that of long-lived woody species, could be a reason. Here, we examined temporal trends in subpopulations of 28 threatened endemic tree (TET) taxa. We questioned the frequency with which they decline in association with IAPs on Reunion Island (South-West Indian Ocean), and asked whether the most susceptible TET taxa exhibit characteristics that could reveal the underlying ecological mechanisms. We resurveyed 182 historically described subpopulations and tested whether observed trends of juvenile and adult TETs correlate with the abundance in IAPs using path analyses, while distinguishing TET taxa with respect to their leaf–height–seed characteristics and extinction risk. The trend of adult TETs was not affected by IAPs but that of juvenile TETs was negatively correlated with the abundance of IAPs in the understory layer. This was particularly the case for TET taxa with conservative resource-use strategies (low specific leaf area or low maximum height), whose juveniles might be particularly susceptible to competition with IAPs, but not for TET taxa with large seeds, whose metabolic reserves make seedlings more likely to attain a critical size. These findings suggest that IAPs can significantly contribute to the extinction dynamics of trees, primarily by limiting regeneration through competitive exclusion, and that their impacts vary depending on the traits of the affected taxa.

生物入侵是目前生物多样性危机的主要原因，尤其是在岛屿上。然而，外来入侵植物（IAPs）作为本地植物减少和灭绝的驱动因素的作用尚不清楚。植物灭绝固有的缓慢和渐进的性质，特别是那些长寿的木本物种，可能是一个原因。在这里，我们研究了28个濒危特有树（TET）分类群亚群的时间趋势。我们质疑留尼汪岛（西南印度洋）上它们与iap相关的下降频率，并询问最敏感的TET分类群是否表现出可以揭示潜在生态机制的特征。我们重新调查了182个历史上描述的亚种群，并使用通径分析测试了观察到的幼年和成年TET趋势是否与IAPs丰度相关，同时区分了TET分类群的叶高-种子特征和灭绝风险。成虫TETs的变化趋势不受IAPs的影响，但幼虫TETs的变化趋势与林下层IAPs丰度呈负相关。具有保守资源利用策略（低比叶面积或低最大高度）的TET类群尤其如此，其幼体可能特别容易受到iap的竞争，但具有大种子的TET类群则不然，其代谢储备使幼苗更有可能达到临界尺寸。这些发现表明，iap可以显著促进树木的灭绝动态，主要是通过竞争排斥来限制再生，并且它们的影响取决于受影响分类群的特征。

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引用次数: 0

When coping means breaking the rules: Understanding conservation crime through strain 当应对意味着打破规则：通过紧张理解保护犯罪

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111687

Judith J. Rakowski , Michelle Anagnostou , Trong Dat Cao Tien , Trung Cao Tien , Laure Joanny , Ha Trang Nguyen , James L. Slade , Luan Van Nguyen , Elle Jingjing Xu , Meredith L. Gore

Conservation crime, including outlawed hunting, logging, and natural resource use, poses a direct threat to biodiversity worldwide. Reducing this harmful behavior and understanding the motivations of offenders is crucial, yet drivers remain underexamined. This study applies General Strain Theory to explore how social and environmental strains shape coping strategies, including conservation crime, among communities in and around Pù Mát National Park, Vietnam, a hotspot for conservation crime. We conducted three phases of qualitative fieldwork in 2023 and 2024 across 16 communities, using semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and member-checking workshops with 218 participants. We identified nine distinct strains, ranging from unmet basic needs and economic hardship to land accessibility, environmental stressors, and insufficient medical care. Four of them are novel, ecologically embedded forms, such as road and remoteness strain or environmental stressors. Participants described four main coping strategies: conservation crime, outmigration, reliance on aid, and lifestyle adaptation. While participants did not always explicitly connect specific strains to illegal behavior, basic needs, economic, land, and road and remoteness strains emerged as particularly salient and were most frequently discussed in relation to conservation crime. These findings suggest that broader structural inequalities—such as poverty, limited access to services, and spatial marginalization—may influence vulnerability to illegal resource use and merit attention as potentially criminogenic stressors. By applying General Strain Theory to conservation and extending it with ecologically grounded and spatially situated drivers of strain, this study offers a new lens for identifying, anticipating, and potentially addressing risks of conservation crime in protected areas.

保护犯罪，包括非法狩猎、伐木和自然资源利用，对全球生物多样性构成直接威胁。减少这种有害行为和了解违法者的动机是至关重要的，然而司机仍然没有得到充分的研究。本研究运用一般应变理论，探讨社会和环境应变如何影响越南Pù Mát国家公园及其周边社区的应对策略，包括保护犯罪。Pù Mát国家公园是保护犯罪的热点。我们在2023年和2024年对16个社区进行了三个阶段的定性实地调查，使用了半结构化访谈、焦点小组和218名参与者的成员检查研讨会。我们确定了9种不同的压力，从未满足的基本需求和经济困难到土地可及性、环境压力因素和医疗保健不足。其中四种是新颖的、生态嵌入式的形式，如道路和偏远的压力或环境压力。与会者描述了四种主要的应对策略：保护犯罪、外迁、依赖援助和适应生活方式。虽然参与者并不总是明确地将特定的压力与非法行为联系起来，但基本需求、经济、土地、道路和偏远地区的压力显得尤为突出，并且与保护犯罪相关的讨论最为频繁。这些发现表明，更广泛的结构性不平等——如贫困、获得服务的机会有限和空间边缘化——可能会影响对非法资源使用的脆弱性，并作为潜在的犯罪压力因素值得关注。通过将一般应变理论应用于保护，并将其扩展到生态基础和空间定位的应变驱动因素，本研究为识别、预测和潜在解决保护区保护犯罪风险提供了一个新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the effectiveness of strictly protected areas in preventing forest loss and degradation across different forest types in the Caucasus 评估严格保护区在防止高加索不同森林类型的森林损失和退化方面的有效性

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111685

Johanna Buchner , Katarzyna Ewa Lewińska , Van Butsic , Zuzana Buřivalová , Arash Ghoddousi , Natalia Rogova , Afag Rizayeva , Eugenia V. Bragina , Volker C. Radeloff

Protected areas are a cornerstone of conservation, designed to preserve ecosystems such as forests. While their effectiveness to stem forest loss is well understood, preventing forest degradation is less clear, although selective logging can alter forest structure and affect biodiversity. It is also unclear how effectiveness varies among forest types. We assessed whether strictly protected areas established before the collapse of the Soviet Union were effective in preventing forest loss and degradation in coniferous, mixed, and deciduous forests across the Caucasus, a biodiversity hotspot. We used an available land-cover classification dataset from 1987 to 2015 to assess forest loss, and mapped degradation using spectral mixture analysis of Landsat imagery from 1988 to 2019 specifically for this study. To assess effectiveness, we applied propensity score matching and panel regressions. We found that protected areas in Armenia and Azerbaijan were effective in preventing forest loss but largely ineffective in preventing degradation. Protected areas in Georgia and Russia were ineffective in preventing forest loss and degradation. Among forest types, degradation was only lower in mixed forests in protected areas across the Caucasus. Our results suggest that (a) including forest degradation in assessments provides important insights into forest threats, and (b) the level of effectiveness varies among forest types. Rare forest types with economically valuable tree species may be disproportionately affected, and their threats can only be detected when looking beyond forest loss. Information on degraded forests can support both monitoring and future restoration, highlighting the need for various indictors when assessing protection outcomes.

保护区是自然保护的基石，旨在保护森林等生态系统。虽然它们在阻止森林损失方面的有效性得到了充分的了解，但防止森林退化却不太清楚，尽管选择性采伐可以改变森林结构并影响生物多样性。目前还不清楚不同森林类型的有效性如何不同。我们评估了苏联解体前建立的严格保护区是否能有效防止高加索地区针叶林、混交林和落叶林的森林损失和退化。高加索地区是生物多样性的热点地区。我们使用1987年至2015年的可用土地覆盖分类数据集来评估森林损失，并专门为本研究使用1988年至2019年Landsat图像的光谱混合分析来绘制退化图。为了评估有效性，我们应用了倾向评分匹配和面板回归。我们发现，亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆的保护区在防止森林损失方面有效，但在防止退化方面基本无效。格鲁吉亚和俄罗斯的保护区在防止森林损失和退化方面是无效的。在森林类型中，只有整个高加索保护区的混交林的退化程度较低。我们的研究结果表明：(a)在评估中纳入森林退化提供了对森林威胁的重要见解；(b)不同森林类型的有效性水平不同。拥有具有经济价值树种的稀有森林类型可能受到不成比例的影响，它们的威胁只有在森林损失之外才能发现。关于退化森林的信息可以支持监测和未来的恢复，强调在评估保护成果时需要各种指标。

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引用次数: 0

Priorities for conservation rely heavily on discovery and assessments 保护的优先次序在很大程度上依赖于发现和评估

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111689

Harith Farooq , Craig Hilton-Taylor , Michael Hoffmann , Carsten Rahbek , Jonas Geldmann

The Red List is one of the most important and widely used sources of biodiversity information, providing conservation assessments for nearly 160,000 species. Here, we assess how the change in available Red List data can influence the selection of spatial conservation priorities and which regions are identified as most critical for conservation. We mapped biodiversity importance based on species ranges and threat status at ∼25 km, ∼50 km, and ∼ 100 km resolutions for two time points: 2010 and 2023. We then analyzed shifts in the top 10 % and 25 % most important areas for biodiversity at global and national levels between the two time points. We find that, globally, conservation priorities shifted over time from higher-income to lower-income countries. Nationally, priority areas in 2010 and 2023 were on average 60 % retained and over 40 % of countries experienced a shift in over half of their priority areas between the two years. Beyond showing large shifts within countries of which areas would be the most important to preserve, our analysis highlights an increasing focus on biodiversity research in developing nations. These shifts showcase the uneven global sampling of biodiversity, which skews our understanding of where to invest to efficiently conserve nature. We recommend increased funding for geographically representative field data collection, and the inclusion of explicit guidelines for regular updates in biodiversity frameworks to ensure conservation strategies remain effective.

红色名录是生物多样性信息最重要和最广泛使用的来源之一，为近16万种物种提供了保护评估。在这里，我们评估了可用红色名录数据的变化如何影响空间保护优先级的选择，以及哪些区域被认为是最重要的保护区域。我们在2010年和2023年两个时间点分别以~ 25公里、~ 50公里和~ 100公里的分辨率绘制了基于物种范围和威胁状况的生物多样性重要性图。然后，我们分析了两个时间点之间全球和国家层面生物多样性最重要的前10%和25%地区的变化。我们发现，在全球范围内，随着时间的推移，保护重点从高收入国家转移到了低收入国家。在全国范围内，2010年和2023年的优先领域平均保留了60%，超过40%的国家在两年间有一半以上的优先领域发生了变化。我们的分析除了显示出国家内部哪些地区最需要保护的巨大变化之外，还强调了发展中国家对生物多样性研究的日益关注。这些变化显示了全球生物多样性采样的不平衡，这扭曲了我们对在哪里投资以有效保护自然的理解。我们建议增加对具有地理代表性的实地数据收集的资助，并在生物多样性框架中纳入定期更新的明确指导方针，以确保保护战略保持有效。

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引用次数: 0

Exposure and sensitivity of threatened plant species to changing drought regimes: A global analysis 濒危植物物种对干旱变化的暴露和敏感性：一项全球分析

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111684

Susan E. Everingham , Ian J. Wright , Lina Teckentrup , Stuart Allen , Rachael V. Gallagher

Climate change is driving substantial impacts on plants, including widespread increases in drought frequency, duration, and intensity. Changes to these elements of the drought regime can elevate plant mortality and extinction risk, yet they remain largely overlooked in International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List assessments. We quantified the exposure of Red Listed plant species to future drought regimes by intersecting species' geographic ranges with global projections of drought duration and frequency. Across climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) 96 % of threatened species examined were projected to experience increases in drought frequency and duration in at least part of their range. On average, drought duration is projected to increase by 2–4 weeks, with one additional drought every 25–30 years across species ranges. The most exposed species include 28 threatened palms, 20 of which are Critically endangered, and 454 Proteaceae species, including four Critically endangered proteas (Protea holosericea, P. inopina, P. odorata, P. namaquana). Trees, shrubs and geophytes are most exposed of all plant growth forms to drought regime shifts. In threatened trees and shrubs species, data on hydraulic measures of sensitivity to drought are scarce, with key data available for only six species assessed for expsoure. Of these, three Endangered species (Coffea arabica, Eucalyptus albida, Isopogon gardneri) exhibit sensitivity to changing drought regimes. Our findings highlight the substantial risk to threatened plants posed by increased drought exposure, with important implications for conservation planning. Incorporating drought-regime shifts into future threat assessments will more accurately capturing emerging climate-related extinction risk.

气候变化正在对植物产生重大影响，包括干旱频率、持续时间和强度的普遍增加。干旱制度中这些因素的变化可能会提高植物死亡率和灭绝风险，但在国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）的红色名录评估中，它们在很大程度上被忽视了。我们通过将物种的地理范围与全球干旱持续时间和频率预测相交叉，量化了红色名录植物物种对未来干旱制度的暴露程度。在不同的气候情景（SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）中，预计96%的受威胁物种至少在其部分范围内经历干旱频率和持续时间的增加。平均而言，干旱持续时间预计将增加2-4周，在物种范围内每25-30年增加一次干旱。暴露最多的物种包括28种受威胁的棕榈树，其中20种为极度濒危物种；454种变形科植物，包括4种极度濒危的变形科植物（变形科）（holosericea， P. inopina， P. odorata， P. namaquana）。在所有植物生长形式中，树木、灌木和地生植物最容易受到干旱变化的影响。在受威胁的树木和灌木物种中，关于干旱敏感性的水力测量数据很少，只有六种物种的关键数据可供评估。其中，三种濒危物种（阿拉比卡咖啡、蓝桉、加特纳等）对不断变化的干旱状况表现出敏感。我们的发现强调了干旱增加对受威胁植物造成的巨大风险，对保护规划具有重要意义。将干旱变化纳入未来的威胁评估将更准确地捕捉与气候相关的新灭绝风险。

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引用次数: 0

Endemic bird species are far more threatened than previously thought across the semiarid Caatinga dry forest domain 在半干旱的Caatinga干旱森林地区，特有的鸟类物种受到的威胁远比以前想象的要大

IF 4.4 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Biological Conservation

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111690

Mônica da Costa Lima , Carlos A. Peres , Helder Farias P. Araujo

Biodiversity loss is a hallmark of human impacts on natural landscapes worldwide, particularly in dry tropical forest regions which have been historically neglected by ecological and conservation science, concealing the true history of local extinctions. Here, we (1) assess the magnitude and spatial extent of local extinctions of the endemic forest birds of the Caatinga dry forest domain of northeastern Brazil, one of the most biodiverse and densely populated semi-arid regions on Earth; and (2) explore the drivers of local extinctions of these species. We quantified differences between the contemporary and reconstructed historical distributions of these species using species distribution models to estimate the regional-scale spatial extent of local extinctions. We also assessed the importance of positive and negative environmental predictors of local extinctions using gradient boosting machine models, which are algorithms that combine multiple decision trees to improve predictive performance. Most of these species lost over 50 % of their historical range, which exacerbates regional scale extinction threat. Ten of the 13 endemic species considered are likely far more threatened than suggested in previous Red List assessments. Additionally, 88 % of the Caatinga domain has already recorded local extinctions of endemic forest birds. We show this is attributed to loss of aboveground phytomass, causing irreversible damage to dry forest habitats. Unexpectedly, local persistence of endemic forest birds was not positively affected by protected areas, likely because the historical regional-scale extinction filter predates their creation and establishment. Due to reduced ranges, these species have become more susceptible to global extinctions. Therefore, integrated conservation measures should be adopted, including natural resource management and forest restoration, to avert further historical losses of this unique biodiversity.

生物多样性丧失是人类对世界各地自然景观影响的一个标志，特别是在干旱的热带森林地区，这些地区历史上一直被生态和保护科学所忽视，掩盖了当地物种灭绝的真实历史。在此，我们(1)评估了巴西东北部Caatinga干旱森林域特有森林鸟类局部灭绝的程度和空间范围，这是地球上生物多样性最丰富、人口最密集的半干旱地区之一；(2)探索这些物种在当地灭绝的驱动因素。我们使用物种分布模型量化了这些物种的当代和重建历史分布之间的差异，以估计区域尺度的局部灭绝的空间范围。我们还使用梯度增强机器模型评估了当地灭绝的正面和负面环境预测因素的重要性，这些模型是结合多个决策树来提高预测性能的算法。这些物种大多失去了其历史范围的50%以上，这加剧了区域范围的灭绝威胁。在被考虑的13种特有物种中，有10种受到的威胁可能远比以前红色名录评估中所建议的严重。此外，88%的Caatinga地区已经记录了当地特有森林鸟类的灭绝。我们的研究表明，这是由于地上生物量的减少，对干燥的森林栖息地造成了不可逆转的损害。出乎意料的是，当地特有森林鸟类的持久性没有受到保护区的积极影响，可能是因为历史区域尺度的灭绝过滤器早于它们的创建和建立。由于分布范围的缩小，这些物种更容易受到全球灭绝的影响。因此，应采取综合保护措施，包括自然资源管理和森林恢复，以避免这种独特的生物多样性进一步的历史损失。

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引用次数: 0