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Bridging detection and forecasting: Refined WaveNet for robust smart building energy monitoring 桥接检测和预测:用于稳健智能建筑能源监测的改进WaveNet
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2026.102142
Cyrine Berrima, Viet Tra, Manar Amayri
Clean, high-resolution time series data is essential for precise predictions and effective control in smart building energy systems. Based on a refined WaveNet, this study proposes a novel architecture for unsupervised anomaly identification in univariate energy consumption time series. Without labeled data, the model is specifically intended to detect abnormal patterns and capture long-range temporal correlations. It uses gated activations, skip connections, and dilated causal convolutions to improve temporal fidelity, resilience, and sensitivity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first anomaly detection strategy in this setting that integrates architectural improvements with a thorough assessment of the impact on downstream forecasting. High-frequency energy consumption time series are used to rigorously benchmark the Refined WaveNet against cutting-edge baselines, such as the original WaveNet, deep generative hierarchical learning (DGHL), and variational autoencoder (VAE). With a Precision-Recall Area Under the Curve of 99.23% and an F1 Score of 98.30%, the model outperforms the original WaveNet—which achieves only 41.96% in F1 Score—by more than 56 percentage points. We combine the detection module with a long short-term memory (LSTM) forecasting model in order to evaluate its practical usefulness. According to experimental findings, adding just 10% synthetic anomalies to the time series increases mean squared error (MSE) by more than thirty times, whereas using Refined WaveNet for preprocessing brings forecasting performance back to levels that are almost pristine. These results highlight anomaly detection’s significance as a fundamental element of time series analysis for intelligent energy systems and establish Refined WaveNet as a small, effective, and deployable solution for edge-based, real-time applications. The code is available at: https://surl.li/oumfna.
清洁、高分辨率的时间序列数据对于智能建筑能源系统的精确预测和有效控制至关重要。基于改进的WaveNet,提出了一种单变量能耗时间序列无监督异常识别的新架构。在没有标记数据的情况下,该模型专门用于检测异常模式和捕获长期时间相关性。它使用门控激活、跳过连接和扩展因果卷积来提高时间保真度、弹性和灵敏度。据我们所知,这是该设置中的第一个异常检测策略,它将架构改进与对下游预测影响的全面评估集成在一起。高频能量消耗时间序列用于严格地对改进的WaveNet进行基准测试,如原始的WaveNet、深度生成分层学习(DGHL)和变分自编码器(VAE)。该模型的曲线下查准率(Precision-Recall Area)为99.23%,F1分数为98.30%,比F1分数仅为41.96%的原始wavenet模型高出56个百分点以上。我们将检测模块与长短期记忆(LSTM)预测模型相结合,以评估其实用性。根据实验结果,仅在时间序列中添加10%的合成异常,均方误差(MSE)就增加了30多倍,而使用精制WaveNet进行预处理,预测性能几乎恢复到原始水平。这些结果突出了异常检测作为智能能源系统时间序列分析的基本要素的重要性,并将精制WaveNet建立为基于边缘的实时应用的小型,有效和可部署的解决方案。代码可从https://surl.li/oumfna获得。
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引用次数: 0
Raw measurement supervised learning transformer for anomaly detection of power system digital twin updates 用于电力系统数字孪生更新异常检测的原始测量监督学习变压器
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102069
Zhiwei Shen, Felipe Arraño-Vargas, Georgios Konstantinou
Continuous updates are essential to ensure that a digital twin (DT) remains an accurate representation of its physical counterpart. The performance of DT applications heavily relies on how accurately the DT reflects its physical counterpart. DT updates, however, can be compromised by anomalous PT data stemming from physical twin (PT) measurements, communication malfunctions, and/or external attacks. Detecting such anomalies in PT data is crucial to ensuring the accuracy and reliability of DT, thereby generating only valid outcomes for associated applications. This paper proposes a detection method to identify anomalous PT data before its integration into the DT. The proposed raw measurement supervised learning Transformer (RM-SL-TF) facilitates a straightforward identification of PT data using raw measurements, eliminating the dependency on data preprocessing. The feasibility and effectiveness of the RM-SL-TF are demonstrated by using a power system digital twin (PSDT) that requires frequent updates. The resulting detection accuracy of anomalous PT data is comparable to, or even surpasses, that of other artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that rely on input feature normalisation. By directly analysing raw measurements without normalising input features, the proposed approach is simpler, more flexible, and expandable, making it suitable for establishing and advancing the development and implementation of DTs for power systems and other industries.
持续更新对于确保数字孪生(DT)保持其物理对应物的准确表示至关重要。DT应用程序的性能在很大程度上依赖于DT如何准确地反映其物理对应物。然而,DT更新可能会受到来自物理孪生(PT)测量、通信故障和/或外部攻击的异常PT数据的破坏。检测PT数据中的此类异常对于确保DT的准确性和可靠性至关重要,从而为相关应用生成有效的结果。本文提出了一种在PT数据融入DT之前识别异常PT数据的检测方法。提出的原始测量监督学习转换器(RM-SL-TF)便于使用原始测量直接识别PT数据,消除了对数据预处理的依赖。通过使用需要频繁更新的电力系统数字孪生体(PSDT),验证了RM-SL-TF的可行性和有效性。由此产生的异常PT数据的检测精度与依赖于输入特征归一化的其他人工智能(AI)算法相当,甚至超过。通过直接分析原始测量而不规范化输入特征,所提出的方法更简单,更灵活,可扩展,使其适用于建立和推进电力系统和其他行业的dt的开发和实施。
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引用次数: 0
Coordinated scheduling mechanism of electric vehicle V2G and DR in integrated energy systems via deep reinforcement learning 基于深度强化学习的综合能源系统中电动汽车V2G和DR协调调度机制
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102086
Chao He , Junwen Peng , Wenhui Jiang , Jiacheng Wang , Sirui Zhang , Yi Zhang , Hong Na
With the large-scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs) and the growing penetration of renewable energy, integrated energy systems (IES) are facing increased complexity in coordinated scheduling. This complexity arises from multi-source heterogeneity, heightened operational uncertainty, and the challenge of coordinating demand-side responses. To address these issues, we propose a coordinated optimization framework that integrates vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, demand response (DR) mechanisms, and carbon trading incentives. The framework facilitates dynamic coordination of flexible resources, such as EV charging/discharging, energy storage, grid electricity procurement, and heat pump loads. This improves operational flexibility, economic efficiency, and carbon reduction potential. To solve the multi-objective, non-convex optimization problem, we introduce a Deep Q-Network (DQN) algorithm from deep reinforcement learning. By utilizing policy learning, the algorithm dynamically optimizes operational decisions across various energy units, enabling adaptive scheduling in response to real-time system changes. Simulation results show that the proposed framework outperforms traditional rule-based and static strategies in terms of load regulation, carbon emission control, and operational cost. These findings highlight the broad applicability and scalability of the integrated scheduling mechanism with reinforcement learning for low-carbon dispatch in IES.
随着电动汽车的大规模并网和可再生能源的日益普及,综合能源系统协调调度的复杂性日益增加。这种复杂性来自于多来源的异质性、操作的不确定性以及协调需求侧响应的挑战。为了解决这些问题,我们提出了一个整合车辆到电网(V2G)技术、需求响应(DR)机制和碳交易激励机制的协调优化框架。该框架有利于电动汽车充放电、储能、电网购电和热泵负荷等灵活资源的动态协调。这提高了操作灵活性、经济效率和碳减排潜力。为了解决多目标非凸优化问题,我们引入了深度强化学习中的深度Q-Network (DQN)算法。通过利用策略学习,该算法动态优化各种能源单元的运营决策,实现对实时系统变化的自适应调度。仿真结果表明,该框架在负荷调节、碳排放控制和运行成本方面优于传统的基于规则和静态策略。这些发现突出了强化学习集成调度机制在IES低碳调度中的广泛适用性和可扩展性。
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引用次数: 0
Neural Lyapunov function with projection gradient descent for region of attraction estimation in AC/DC wind power systems 带投影梯度下降的神经Lyapunov函数用于交直流风力发电系统的吸引力区域估计
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2026.102123
Zhaobin Du, Sicheng Shan, Yao Liu, Wenxian Zhao
Estimating the region of attraction (ROA) of an equilibrium point remains a fundamental yet challenging problem in power system transient stability analysis. This paper proposes a neural Lyapunov function-based framework for transient stability assessment and ROA estimation in nonlinear AC/DC power systems with wind power integration. A structurally positive-definite neural architecture is designed to simplify Lyapunov function learning and improve training robustness. To further enhance efficiency, a projection gradient descent (PGD)-based counterexample discovery strategy is introduced, which formulates the Lyapunov violation search as a constrained optimization problem within prescribed state boundaries. The proposed approach is validated on a standard 3-machine 9-bus system and a 9-bus AC/DC system with wind farms. Comparative results demonstrate that the method reduces training time by approximately 55% and enlarges the verified ROA by over 15% compared with existing neural Lyapunov benchmarks, while maintaining accurate post-fault stability assessment.
在电力系统暂态稳定分析中,平衡点吸引区域的估计是一个基本而又具有挑战性的问题。本文提出了一种基于神经Lyapunov函数的非线性交/直流风电系统暂态稳定评估和ROA估计框架。为了简化李雅普诺夫函数的学习,提高训练的鲁棒性,设计了一种结构正定神经结构。为了进一步提高效率,引入了一种基于投影梯度下降(PGD)的反例发现策略,该策略将Lyapunov违例搜索定义为在规定状态边界内的约束优化问题。该方法在标准的3机9总线系统和带风电场的9总线交流/直流系统上进行了验证。对比结果表明,与现有的神经Lyapunov基准相比,该方法在保持准确的故障后稳定性评估的同时,将训练时间缩短了约55%,将验证ROA提高了15%以上。
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引用次数: 0
Delta-connected series-cascaded microgrids with extended power routing range control 具有扩展功率路由范围控制的三角洲连接串联级联微电网
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2026.102128
Salman Ali , Santiago Bogarra Rodríguez , Muhammad Mansoor Khan , Felipe Córcoles
Series-cascaded microgrids (SCMGs) enable high-voltage synthesis and enhances control flexibility; however, power distribution among distributed generation (DG) sources in such systems remains insufficiently examined. The inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources introduces challenges in inter-module and inter-cluster power sharing, which can limit the injection of balanced three-phase currents into the grid. This study focuses on a delta-connected SCMG configuration incorporating both PV and battery-based DG units operating in grid-connected mode. Battery modules play a key role in voltage support, power balancing, and maintaining the reference capacitor voltage for PV-integrated units. A control methodology is developed, employing third harmonic current injection for inter-module power routing and zero-sequence current injection for inter-cluster power routing under adverse power flow conditions caused by PV variability. The optimal injection coefficients for both power sharing carriers are analytically derived, demonstrating an increase in the power routing range with a power routing factor of 100 % for the developed third harmonic current injection. The proposed method is validated through detailed MATLAB/Simulink simulations and Typhoon HIL experiments across balanced, partially imbalanced, PV-inactive, and reverse power-flow conditions. The results confirm stable seven-level output voltage, balanced grid currents, and robust inter-module and inter-cluster routing even under extreme conditions (χbc ≈ 0), highlighting the superior balancing capability of the delta-connected topology combined with the proposed control strategy.
串联级联微电网(scmg)实现高压综合并增强控制灵活性;然而,在这种系统中,分布式发电(DG)电源之间的功率分布仍然没有得到充分的研究。可再生能源固有的间歇性给模块间和集群间的电力共享带来了挑战,这限制了向电网注入平衡三相电流。本研究的重点是三角洲连接的SCMG配置,包括在并网模式下运行的光伏和基于电池的DG单元。电池模块在电压支持、功率平衡和维持pv集成单元的参考电容电压方面发挥着关键作用。提出了一种控制方法,在由光伏可变性引起的不利潮流条件下,采用三次谐波电流注入进行模块间电力路由,零序电流注入进行集群间电力路由。对两种功率共享载波的最佳注入系数进行了解析推导,结果表明,对于开发的三次谐波电流注入,功率路由系数增加了100 %。通过详细的MATLAB/Simulink仿真和台风HIL实验,验证了该方法在平衡、部分不平衡、pv无活性和反向功率流条件下的有效性。结果证实,即使在极端条件下(χbc≈0),稳定的七电平输出电压,平衡的电网电流,以及鲁棒的模块间和集群间路由,突出了三角连接拓扑与所提出的控制策略相结合的优越平衡能力。
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引用次数: 0
P2P modeling formation coalitions and prosumers participation based on dynamic pricing algorithm and line congestion consideration 基于动态定价算法和考虑线路拥塞的P2P建模形成联盟和产消参与
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102099
Zhen Ji, Wei Sun, Bo Yan, BoHao Sun
The rapid proliferation of distributed energy resources such as photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, battery energy storage systems, and electric vehicles has transformed residential microgrids into active, transactive energy communities. However, realizing fair, efficient, and scalable peer-to-peer energy sharing under stochastic household demand, dynamic pricing, and network constraints remains a major challenge. This study develops a hybrid centralized-decentralized peer-to-peer energy-sharing framework that models heterogeneous household prosumers five distinct types equipped with photovoltaic, wind turbine, battery energy storage, and electric vehicles within a demand-supply environment. The model integrates a home energy management system with dynamic pricing derived from the balance between Feed-in Tariff and Real-Time Pricing, augmented by congestion and degradation costs to ensure market fairness. A heuristic battery control algorithm and a two-level robust optimization based on the MILP and column-and-constraint generation method are implemented to coordinate energy exchanges between prosumers and the grid. Electric vehicles are treated as active market agents capable of bidirectional energy trading to enhance grid flexibility. Case studies involving 30, 120, and 240 households simulated using MATLAB to compare three operational scenarios without P2P trading, hybrid centralized-decentralized peer to peer trading, and large-scale community participation. The findings indicate that the proposed framework increases household self-consumption rates by 64.22 %, decreases grid energy imports by 52.5 %, and elevates prosumer revenue by 41.6 %, while preserving network stability and fairness. Hybrid market structure efficiently reduces peak energy costs, ensures strong local balance, and offers scalable basis for resilient, consumer-driven energy communities.
分布式能源的迅速扩散,如光伏系统、风力涡轮机、电池储能系统和电动汽车,已经将住宅微电网转变为活跃的、可交互的能源社区。然而,在随机家庭需求、动态定价和网络约束下实现公平、高效和可扩展的点对点能源共享仍然是一个重大挑战。本研究开发了一个混合的集中式-分散式点对点能源共享框架,该框架模拟了不同类型的家庭产消者,在供需环境中配备了光伏、风力涡轮机、电池储能和电动汽车。该模型集成了一个家庭能源管理系统,其动态定价来源于上网电价和实时定价之间的平衡,并通过拥堵和退化成本来增强,以确保市场公平。采用启发式电池控制算法和基于MILP和列约束生成法的两级鲁棒优化算法来协调产消者与电网之间的能量交换。电动汽车被视为活跃的市场主体,能够进行双向能源交易,以增强电网的灵活性。使用MATLAB模拟了涉及30户、120户和240户家庭的案例研究,比较了没有P2P交易、集中式和分散式混合点对点交易和大规模社区参与的三种操作场景。研究结果表明,该框架在保持电网稳定性和公平性的前提下,提高了家庭自消费率64.22% %,减少了电网能源进口52.5 %,提高了产消收入41.6 %。混合市场结构有效地降低了峰值能源成本,确保了强大的本地平衡,并为弹性、消费者驱动的能源社区提供了可扩展的基础。
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引用次数: 0
A hybrid model for efficient reliability assessment of power systems 电力系统高效可靠性评估的混合模型
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102091
Adil Waheed, Jueyou Li
The reliability assessment of power systems ensures uninterrupted service and system stability. This paper proposes a hybrid approach consisting of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict key reliability indices, such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS), and Loss of Load Frequency (LOLF). The proposed approach eliminates the need to solve multiple Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems for each system state, thereby reducing computational time and complexity. In the training phase, the model learns from historical data and a limited set of pre-calculated OPF results. This process enables the model to capture the complex relationships between system states, load curtailment, and reliability indices. Once the training phase is complete, the model directly predicts reliability indices without the need to repeatedly solve OPF for every system state. Comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed method achieves a high level of accuracy while significantly outperforming conventional techniques, such as Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The proposed model is also applied to well-known power systems, including the IEEE Reliability Test Systems (IEEE RTS, IEEE RTS-96) and the Saskatchewan Power Corporation (SPC) system in Canada. The results show that the MLP-LSTM model performs better and can solve OPF-based reliability assessments. Furthermore, the model reduces dependence on OPF and provides faster and more reliable analysis in real-time. This improvement facilitates better decision-making in power system planning and operations.
电力系统的可靠性评估保证了电力系统的不间断运行和稳定运行。本文提出了一种由多层感知器(MLP)和长短期记忆(LSTM)网络组成的混合方法来预测关键的可靠性指标,如负荷损失概率(LOLP)、预期未提供能量(EENS)和负荷损失频率(LOLF)。该方法消除了对每个系统状态求解多个最优潮流(OPF)问题的需要,从而减少了计算时间和复杂度。在训练阶段,模型从历史数据和一组有限的预先计算的OPF结果中学习。该过程使模型能够捕获系统状态、负荷削减和可靠性指标之间的复杂关系。一旦训练阶段完成,该模型就可以直接预测可靠性指标,而无需对系统的每个状态重复求解OPF。对比分析表明,该方法在显著优于蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)等传统技术的同时,实现了较高的精度。该模型还应用于知名电力系统,包括IEEE可靠性测试系统(IEEE RTS, IEEE RTS-96)和加拿大萨斯喀彻温省电力公司(SPC)系统。结果表明,MLP-LSTM模型性能较好,能够解决基于opf的可靠性评估问题。此外,该模型减少了对OPF的依赖,提供了更快、更可靠的实时分析。这种改进有助于在电力系统规划和运行中更好地决策。
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引用次数: 0
Robust optimization of electric bus charging-operation scheduling considering charging discrepancy 考虑充电差异的电动客车充电调度鲁棒优化
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102084
Zhouzuo Wang , Xinghua Hu , Jiahao Zhao , Fang Liu , Lanping Si
Optimizing electric bus (EB) scheduling is crucial for advancing urban bus systems and reducing carbon emissions. In this study, we establish an EB scheduling model using a robust optimization paradigm to address the challenges associated with charging demand uncertainty during the operation period. To model the charging process of electric buses (EBs), we adopted a piecewise linear function to handle the nonlinear charging function. This approach improves the practicality of the model while ensuring basic realism. This study introduced a mixed-integer programming model to maximize the profit of the EB system, including the weighted delay time. The main constraints include the departure time window and the charging process. To account for the impact of multiple vehicle types on the scheduling of EBs, a distributed robust optimization model is established for the uncertainty of the EB operation. An instantiated analysis is conducted to schedule an EB line in a Chinese city. The results demonstrate that the distributed robust optimization model enhances the expected profit by approximately 27.27 %-54.24 % compared with the deterministic model. Additionally, the robust optimization model exhibits a steeper increase in expected profit as the uncertainty level increases. Furthermore, the mixed scheduling strategies with multiple vehicle types in the robust optimization model enhance the profit compared to the model relying solely on a single vehicle type. The results demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model for EB scheduling.
优化电动公交调度对于推进城市公交系统建设和减少碳排放至关重要。在本研究中,我们使用鲁棒优化范式建立了一个EB调度模型,以解决与运营期间充电需求不确定性相关的挑战。为了模拟电动公交车的充电过程,我们采用分段线性函数来处理非线性充电函数。这种方法在保证基本真实感的同时提高了模型的实用性。本文引入了一个混合整数规划模型,使EB系统的利润最大化,并考虑了加权延迟时间。主要的约束条件包括出发时间窗口和收费过程。为了考虑多种车辆类型对电动汽车调度的影响,针对电动汽车运行的不确定性,建立了分布式鲁棒优化模型。以中国某城市的EB线调度为例进行了实例分析。结果表明,与确定性优化模型相比,分布式鲁棒优化模型的预期利润提高了27.27 % ~ 54.24 %。此外,鲁棒优化模型显示,随着不确定性水平的增加,期望利润的增加幅度更大。此外,在鲁棒优化模型中,多车型混合调度策略比单一车型混合调度策略的收益更高。结果表明,该模型在电子商务调度中的适用性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated optimization and game theory framework for fair cost allocation in community microgrids 社区微电网成本公平分配的集成优化与博弈论框架
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102076
K. Victor Sam Moses Babu , Pratyush Chakraborty , Mayukha Pal
Fair cost allocation in community microgrids remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between multiple participants with varying load profiles, distributed energy resources, and storage systems. Traditional cost allocation methods often fail to adequately address the dynamic nature of participant contributions and benefits, leading to inequitable distribution of costs and reduced participant satisfaction. This paper presents a novel framework integrating multi-objective optimization with cooperative game theory for fair and efficient microgrid operation and cost allocation. The proposed approach combines mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for optimal resource dispatch with Shapley value analysis for equitable benefit distribution, ensuring both system efficiency and participant satisfaction. The framework was validated using real-world data across six distinct operational scenarios, demonstrating significant improvements in both technical and economic performance. Results show peak demand reductions ranging from 7.8 % to 62.6 %, solar utilization rates reaching 114.8 % through effective storage integration, and cooperative gains of up to $1,801.01 per day. The Shapley value-based allocation achieved balanced benefit-cost distributions, with net positions ranging from −16.0 % to +14.2 % across different load categories, ensuring sustainable participant cooperation.
由于具有不同负荷分布、分布式能源和存储系统的多个参与者之间复杂的相互作用,社区微电网的公平成本分配仍然是一个重大挑战。传统的成本分配方法往往不能充分处理参与人缴款和利益的动态性质,导致成本分配不公平和参与人满意度降低。本文提出了一种将多目标优化与合作博弈理论相结合的微电网公平高效运行和成本分配框架。该方法将混合整数线性规划方法(MILP)与Shapley值分析方法(Shapley value analysis)相结合,实现了资源最优调度和利益公平分配,同时保证了系统效率和参与者满意度。该框架在六个不同的操作场景中使用真实数据进行了验证,证明了技术和经济性能的显着改进。结果显示,高峰需求减少幅度从7.8%到62.6%不等,通过有效的存储集成,太阳能利用率达到114.8%,每天的合作收益高达1,801.01美元。Shapley基于价值的分配实现了平衡的效益成本分配,不同负荷类别的净头寸范围为- 16.0%至+ 14.2%,确保了可持续的参与者合作。
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引用次数: 0
Reconstructing hourly power profiles from monthly billing data: A neural network framework with two-phase validation 从月度账单数据重构每小时电力概况:一种两阶段验证的神经网络框架
IF 5.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2026.102122
Morteza Aghahadi , Alessandro Bosisio , Edoardo Dacco , Davide Falabretti , Andrea Ruffini , Alessandro Cirocco
Electrical grid planning requires accurate hourly power consumption profiles, yet utilities typically possess only monthly billing data. This study presents a neural network framework for reconstructing detailed hourly power profiles from aggregated monthly consumption features. Feature engineering transforms hourly consumption into 46 monthly aggregated features, including tariff-based totals and distribution ratios. Principal Component Analysis and K-means clustering identify 14 distinct user behavioral patterns. Three neural network architectures are systematically compared: Multi-Layer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Unit networks. The methodology employs temporally separated validation, using 2022 data for training and 2023 data for validation, thereby assessing robustness to inter-annual variations in weather, economic conditions, and consumer behavior. Among the evaluated models, the Gated Recurrent Unit achieved the best overall performance with an R2 of 0.87 and a 40% reduction in mean squared error compared to XGBoost. For peak load estimation, which is critical for grid capacity planning, the proposed approach achieves a peak error of 18.3% for high-consumption users. Clustering stability analysis and evaluation across extreme user segments (high-consumption, high-volatility, and low-consumption) further confirm the robustness of the proposed methodology.
电网规划需要精确的每小时电力消耗概况,但公用事业公司通常只拥有每月的账单数据。本研究提出了一个神经网络框架,用于从汇总的月度消费特征重建详细的每小时电力概况。特征工程将每小时的消费转换为46个月的聚合特征,包括基于资费的总量和分配比率。主成分分析和K-means聚类识别出14种不同的用户行为模式。系统地比较了三种神经网络结构:多层感知器、长短期记忆和门控循环单元网络。该方法采用时间分离验证,使用2022年数据进行训练,使用2023年数据进行验证,从而评估对天气、经济条件和消费者行为年际变化的稳健性。在所评估的模型中,门控循环单元获得了最佳的整体性能,R2为0.87,与XGBoost相比,均方误差降低了40%。对于电网容量规划至关重要的峰值负荷估计,该方法对高消费用户的峰值误差为18.3%。跨极端用户群体(高消费、高波动和低消费)的聚类稳定性分析和评估进一步证实了所提出方法的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
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Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks
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