Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques最新文献

Poor labour market conditions at the start of a worker's career can result in earnings losses for many years. The 2021 cohort of Canadian high school and post-secondary students have seen employment prospects diminish amid economic lockdowns to contain the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The goal of this article is to predict earnings losses for this cohort. We use Census of Population data to show that a 1 percent increase in unemployment at the time of graduation leads to a 1.5-4 percent average decrease in earnings. Then, using unemployment rate forecasts from various sources, we predict how this year's graduating class is expected to fare. Our approach assumes previous recessions are informative about the effects of the current recession. We estimate that a typical 2021 graduate loses 5-12 percent of the amount they would have earned over the first few years if the pandemic had not occurred.

Income support programs introduced for workers during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns faced criticism for their negative labour supply effects. We propose that these concerns about work disincentives are embedded in restrictive assumptions about work and led to suboptimal design of crisis support policies. We describe a framework for analyzing alternative crisis income support programs predicated on more realistic assumptions of labour markets and human motivation. Our framework proposes that balancing efficiency, equity, and voice objectives should be the goal of crisis labour market policies. We argue that adoption of a basic income targeted toward low-income workers, in combination with Canada's pre-existing Employment Insurance program, would have balanced efficiency, equity, and voice better than the combination of the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. A targeted basic income would also have been more effective at achieving stated public health objectives.

The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has required the adoption of precautionary health behaviours to reduce the risk of infection. This study examines adherence, as well as changes in adherence, to four key precautionary behaviours among Canadian adults: wearing face masks, social distancing, hand washing, and avoiding large crowds. Data are drawn from Series 3 and 4 of the nationally representative Canadian Perspectives Survey Series, administered by Statistics Canada in June and July 2020. We calculate overall adherence levels as well as changes over time. Logistic regression models estimate each behaviour as a function of demographic and socio-economic characteristics to identify adherence disparities across population segments. We find a nearly universal increase in precautionary behaviours from June to July in mask wearing (67.3 percent to 83.6 percent), social distancing (82.4 percent to 89.2 percent), and avoiding crowds (84.1 percent to 88.9 percent); no significant change occurred in the frequency of hand washing. We observe significant disparities in adherence to precautionary behaviours, especially for mask wearing, in June; female, older, immigrant, urban, and highly educated adults were significantly more likely to adhere to precautionary behaviours than male, younger, Canadian-born, rural, and low-educated adults. By July 2020, these disparities persisted or were slightly attenuated; women, however, had consistently higher adherence to all behaviours at both time points. These findings have substantial implications for policy and potential public health interventions.

The extent to which elementary and secondary (K-12) schools should remain open is at the forefront of discussions on long-term pandemic management. In this context, little mention has been made of the immediate importance of K-12 schooling for the rest of the economy. Eliminating in-person schooling reduces the amount of time parents of school-aged children have available to work and therefore reduces income to those workers and the economy as a whole. We discuss two measures of economic importance and how they can be modified to better reflect the vital role played by K-12 education. The first is its size, as captured by the fraction of gross domestic product produced by that sector. The second is its centrality, reflecting how essential the sector is to the network of economic activity. Using data from Canada's Census of Population and Symmetric Input-Output Tables, we show how accounting for this role dramatically increases the importance of K-12 schooling.

To mitigate the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the federal government has implemented several financial assistance programs, including unprecedented funding to food charities. Using the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series 2, we examine the demographic, employment, and behavioural characteristics associated with food insecurity in April-May 2020. We find that one-quarter of job-insecure individuals experienced food insecurity that was strongly associated with pandemic-related disruptions to employment income, major financial hardship, and use of food charity, yet the vast majority of food-insecure households did not report receiving any charitable food assistance. Increased financial support for low-income households would reduce food insecurity and mitigate negative repercussions of the pandemic.