The first case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Papua New Guinea was detected in the capital in 1987. After a relatively short period during which the epidemic was concentrated in certain "high-risk" groups the disease spread throughout the country and by 2005 had become a "generalized epidemic" - with a 1 per cent HIV prevalence rate among adults aged 15-49. The most recent (2007) estimates suggest that the adult prevalence rate has risen to 1.6 per cent confirming that the epidemic is continuing to grow rapidly. The scale of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in the country has reached the point where future demographic patterns are likely to be affected possibly severely. Among the demographic impacts to be expected based on the experience of other countries with generalized epidemics are an increase in the number of deaths particularly among young adults leading in turn to reduced life expectancy. The rate of population growth will drop as a higher death rate reduces the rate of natural increase. The number of births can also be expected to decline owing to the impaired fecundity of HIV positive women. Changes to the age structure follow from the concentration of excess AIDS mortality in the young adult age groups. (excerpt)
{"title":"The demographic impact of the HIV / AIDS epidemic in Papua New Guinea 1990-2030.","authors":"G. Hayes","doi":"10.18356/01EA416F-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/01EA416F-EN","url":null,"abstract":"The first case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Papua New Guinea was detected in the capital in 1987. After a relatively short period during which the epidemic was concentrated in certain \"high-risk\" groups the disease spread throughout the country and by 2005 had become a \"generalized epidemic\" - with a 1 per cent HIV prevalence rate among adults aged 15-49. The most recent (2007) estimates suggest that the adult prevalence rate has risen to 1.6 per cent confirming that the epidemic is continuing to grow rapidly. The scale of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in the country has reached the point where future demographic patterns are likely to be affected possibly severely. Among the demographic impacts to be expected based on the experience of other countries with generalized epidemics are an increase in the number of deaths particularly among young adults leading in turn to reduced life expectancy. The rate of population growth will drop as a higher death rate reduces the rate of natural increase. The number of births can also be expected to decline owing to the impaired fecundity of HIV positive women. Changes to the age structure follow from the concentration of excess AIDS mortality in the young adult age groups. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"11-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67669999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB) 2006). China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports Chinas total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4. The rapid changes occurring in Chinas population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing gender equality sex ratio at birth and labour supply. (excerpt)
{"title":"Low fertility in China: Trends policy and impact.","authors":"Baochang Gu","doi":"10.18356/4630350B-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/4630350B-EN","url":null,"abstract":"China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB) 2006). China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports Chinas total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4. The rapid changes occurring in Chinas population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing gender equality sex ratio at birth and labour supply. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"73-90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67700239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lowest-low fertility appeared quite suddenly in the Republic of Korea although fertility has consistently declined for several decades. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Interestingly the pace of the decline accelerated after the region-wide economic crisis in 1997. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and significantly after the country had passed through the crisis. The present article aims to explain why lowest-low fertility appeared in the Republic of Korea in the late 1990s. The author approaches the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. Finally this article presents and discusses the latest population policies proposed by the Government of the Republic of Korea. (excerpt)
{"title":"Lowest-low fertility in the Republic of Korea: Causes, consequences and policy responses","authors":"K. Eun","doi":"10.18356/742D2082-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/742D2082-EN","url":null,"abstract":"Lowest-low fertility appeared quite suddenly in the Republic of Korea although fertility has consistently declined for several decades. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Interestingly the pace of the decline accelerated after the region-wide economic crisis in 1997. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and significantly after the country had passed through the crisis. The present article aims to explain why lowest-low fertility appeared in the Republic of Korea in the late 1990s. The author approaches the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. Finally this article presents and discusses the latest population policies proposed by the Government of the Republic of Korea. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"51-72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67714715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article seeks to analyse the fertility transformation in post-war Japan. The following section discusses how the demographic mechanism of Japans postwar fertility decline varied over time while the ensuing section examines what factors contributed to such demographic shifts. Subsequently a number of the policies and programmes to raise fertility that the Government of Japan has formulated and implemented over the past decade are discussed and their limitations briefly considered. The final section discusses aspects of Japans postwar experience which may be relevant for developing countries in Asia particularly with regard to the first "demographic dividend" yielded by fertility reduction. (excerpt)
{"title":"Declining fertility in Japan: Its mechanisms and policy responses.","authors":"R. Matsukura, R. Retherford, N. Ogawa","doi":"10.18356/CA6434F6-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/CA6434F6-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This article seeks to analyse the fertility transformation in post-war Japan. The following section discusses how the demographic mechanism of Japans postwar fertility decline varied over time while the ensuing section examines what factors contributed to such demographic shifts. Subsequently a number of the policies and programmes to raise fertility that the Government of Japan has formulated and implemented over the past decade are discussed and their limitations briefly considered. The final section discusses aspects of Japans postwar experience which may be relevant for developing countries in Asia particularly with regard to the first \"demographic dividend\" yielded by fertility reduction. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"33-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67754575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Finally at the turn of the century and after decades of stagnancy there was definite evidence of a decline in fertility in Pakistan. Fertility in Pakistan probably began to decline in the early 1990s or even in the late 1980s. Significantly all estimates for the 1990s for the first time fell below 6.0 births per woman to a little less than five. This is in contrast to numerous surveys that indicated that the TFR remained above six births per woman in the 1980s. Furthermore the last census held finally in 1998 indicated that the average population growth rate for the period 1981-1998 was 2.6 per cent per annum a decline from previous intercensal rates consistent with a decline in fertility in the 1990s. While this trend in fertility decline has continued - even touted as one of the "fastest declines in Asia" - the latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) indicates a stall in fertility at four children per woman. (excerpt)
{"title":"Stagnation in fertility levels in Pakistan.","authors":"Z. Sathar","doi":"10.18356/8302F8FC-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/8302F8FC-EN","url":null,"abstract":"Finally at the turn of the century and after decades of stagnancy there was definite evidence of a decline in fertility in Pakistan. Fertility in Pakistan probably began to decline in the early 1990s or even in the late 1980s. Significantly all estimates for the 1990s for the first time fell below 6.0 births per woman to a little less than five. This is in contrast to numerous surveys that indicated that the TFR remained above six births per woman in the 1980s. Furthermore the last census held finally in 1998 indicated that the average population growth rate for the period 1981-1998 was 2.6 per cent per annum a decline from previous intercensal rates consistent with a decline in fertility in the 1990s. While this trend in fertility decline has continued - even touted as one of the \"fastest declines in Asia\" - the latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) indicates a stall in fertility at four children per woman. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"113-131"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67718971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In dealing with fertility decline in Asia the present article needs to strike an appropriate balance examining the role of marriage change without exaggerating its role. The first section summarizes current trends in fertility in some Asian countries particularly where fertility has reached very low levels. Changes in marriage (particularly delays in marriage) in those countries are discussed in the second section. Available evidence of the disaggregation of fertility decline into marriage change and marital fertility decline is then summarized. The fourth section examines the factors influencing marriage and those influencing fertility within marriage considering the extent to which they are interlinked or separate. A brief discussion of policy on marriage change for fertility reduction rounds out the substantive scope followed by the final section that draws some conclusions. (excerpt)
{"title":"Fertility decline in Asia: The role of marriage change.","authors":"Gavin W. Jones","doi":"10.18356/D39A54F1-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/D39A54F1-EN","url":null,"abstract":"In dealing with fertility decline in Asia the present article needs to strike an appropriate balance examining the role of marriage change without exaggerating its role. The first section summarizes current trends in fertility in some Asian countries particularly where fertility has reached very low levels. Changes in marriage (particularly delays in marriage) in those countries are discussed in the second section. Available evidence of the disaggregation of fertility decline into marriage change and marital fertility decline is then summarized. The fourth section examines the factors influencing marriage and those influencing fertility within marriage considering the extent to which they are interlinked or separate. A brief discussion of policy on marriage change for fertility reduction rounds out the substantive scope followed by the final section that draws some conclusions. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"47 1","pages":"13-32"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67758432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides an overview of some important demographic changes in two major South Asian countries India and Pakistan resulting in a situation marked by sustained fertility decline life prolongation and a growth of population in both the young (especially 25 years and over) and old (60 years and over) age groups. The study postulates that these changes may prove significant for both the countries - affecting inter alia the size and clearance mechanism of their labour markets nature of dependencies increasing ratios of young to old etc. The study further postulates that a fair proportion of families in the two countries may find it difficult to endure old-age dependencies owing to increasingly widespread casualization of employment and jobless growth. Enduring old-age dependencies may also be difficult due to limited work opportunities for older persons functional disabilities perpetuating poverty lack of social assistance compression in real public health expenditure etc. The study also postulates that the pro-market changes in these countries may not particularly conform to their age structure changes. It may as well create a situation fraught with a significant economic-demographic mismatch. (excerpt)
{"title":"Changing demographics emerging risks of economic-demographic mismatch and vulnerabilities faced by older persons in South Asia: Situation review in India and Pakistan.","authors":"Moneer Alam, M. Karim","doi":"10.18356/96F3BD4F-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/96F3BD4F-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an overview of some important demographic changes in two major South Asian countries India and Pakistan resulting in a situation marked by sustained fertility decline life prolongation and a growth of population in both the young (especially 25 years and over) and old (60 years and over) age groups. The study postulates that these changes may prove significant for both the countries - affecting inter alia the size and clearance mechanism of their labour markets nature of dependencies increasing ratios of young to old etc. The study further postulates that a fair proportion of families in the two countries may find it difficult to endure old-age dependencies owing to increasingly widespread casualization of employment and jobless growth. Enduring old-age dependencies may also be difficult due to limited work opportunities for older persons functional disabilities perpetuating poverty lack of social assistance compression in real public health expenditure etc. The study also postulates that the pro-market changes in these countries may not particularly conform to their age structure changes. It may as well create a situation fraught with a significant economic-demographic mismatch. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"21 1","pages":"63-92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67726703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During the same year that the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami made headlines another type of "tsunami" was killing not 200000 people per year but millions of people per year. The epicenter of this "biological tsunami" was in Africa. The initial "earthquake" took place in the early 1980s. Its destructive "waves" spread out slowly in all directions taking nearly two decades before reaching the "shores" of virtually every country. Because it moved so slowly - largely hidden from view - there were no exciting pictures of it to show on the daily news. The mainstream mass media never rushed in to cover "the story". And politicians were largely silent about the problem. What are we talking about here? The HIV/AIDS tsunami. (excerpt)
{"title":"Tsunami versus HIV / AIDS: perception dictates response.","authors":"J. Roberts","doi":"10.18356/F5ADFAF3-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/F5ADFAF3-EN","url":null,"abstract":"During the same year that the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami made headlines another type of \"tsunami\" was killing not 200000 people per year but millions of people per year. The epicenter of this \"biological tsunami\" was in Africa. The initial \"earthquake\" took place in the early 1980s. Its destructive \"waves\" spread out slowly in all directions taking nearly two decades before reaching the \"shores\" of virtually every country. Because it moved so slowly - largely hidden from view - there were no exciting pictures of it to show on the daily news. The mainstream mass media never rushed in to cover \"the story\". And politicians were largely silent about the problem. What are we talking about here? The HIV/AIDS tsunami. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"21 1","pages":"3-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67774815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper takes advantage of "calendar" data gathered in the VNDHS II undertaken in 1997 in which female survey respondents were asked to report all pregnancies in the three years prior to the survey the outcome of each pregnancy and if terminated whether the termination was spontaneous or induced. Experience shows that survey respondents especially in countries where abortion is illegal and/or highly stigmatized tend to grossly under-report abortions. It is estimated that only about one third of abortions were reported in the World Fertility Surveys (WFS) undertaken in 40 developing countries. Jones and Forrest (1992) estimated that only 35 per cent of the actual abortions in the four-year period prior to the 1988 United States National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) were reported in the survey. However abortion is legal in Viet Nam and thus although some abortions undoubtedly went unreported in the VNDHS II the survey provides one of the better opportunities available to understand the factors underlying decisions by women in a developing country setting to terminate unintended pregnancies or carry them to term as unintended live births. (excerpt)
{"title":"Unintended live birth versus abortion: What factors affect the choices of Vietnamese women and couples?","authors":"L. Le","doi":"10.18356/E4D1420E-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/E4D1420E-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This paper takes advantage of \"calendar\" data gathered in the VNDHS II undertaken in 1997 in which female survey respondents were asked to report all pregnancies in the three years prior to the survey the outcome of each pregnancy and if terminated whether the termination was spontaneous or induced. Experience shows that survey respondents especially in countries where abortion is illegal and/or highly stigmatized tend to grossly under-report abortions. It is estimated that only about one third of abortions were reported in the World Fertility Surveys (WFS) undertaken in 40 developing countries. Jones and Forrest (1992) estimated that only 35 per cent of the actual abortions in the four-year period prior to the 1988 United States National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) were reported in the survey. However abortion is legal in Viet Nam and thus although some abortions undoubtedly went unreported in the VNDHS II the survey provides one of the better opportunities available to understand the factors underlying decisions by women in a developing country setting to terminate unintended pregnancies or carry them to term as unintended live births. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"21 1","pages":"45-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67765925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper the author looks at one important but usually sidelined aspect of gender equity and female empowerment: the access that women have to leisure. Much of the research on empowerment is about women having the resources technical material and physical to take decisions to be physically mobile and to manipulate their larger environment. In turn this empowerment is valorized because of all the good uses to which it is typically put according to the large and growing literature on female empowerment. The autonomous or empowered women is supposed to be good for society and for the family because her autonomy results in lower fertility lower infant and child mortality better household welfare higher contributions to economic development and other benefits. But there is much less concern with what autonomy and empowerment can do for women themselves with the exception of the demographic outcomes like better health. (excerpt)
{"title":"Gender leisure and empowerment.","authors":"A. Basu","doi":"10.18356/165439CB-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/165439CB-EN","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper the author looks at one important but usually sidelined aspect of gender equity and female empowerment: the access that women have to leisure. Much of the research on empowerment is about women having the resources technical material and physical to take decisions to be physically mobile and to manipulate their larger environment. In turn this empowerment is valorized because of all the good uses to which it is typically put according to the large and growing literature on female empowerment. The autonomous or empowered women is supposed to be good for society and for the family because her autonomy results in lower fertility lower infant and child mortality better household welfare higher contributions to economic development and other benefits. But there is much less concern with what autonomy and empowerment can do for women themselves with the exception of the demographic outcomes like better health. (excerpt)","PeriodicalId":72317,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific population journal","volume":"21 1","pages":"9-24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67677197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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