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Building bridges or digging the trench? International organizations, social media, and polarized fragmentation 建桥还是挖沟?国际组织、社交媒体和两极分化
Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09517-0
Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt

Communication departments of international organizations (IOs) are important intermediaries of global governance who increasingly use social media to reach out to citizens directly. Social media pose new challenges for IO communication such as a highly competitive economy of attention and the fragmentation of the audiences driven by networked curation of content and selective exposure. In this context, communication departments have to make tough choices about what to communicate and how, aggravating inherent tensions between IO communication as comprehensive public information (aimed at institutional transparency)—and partisan political advocacy (aimed at normative change). If IO communication focuses on advocacy it might garner substantial resonance on social media. Such advocacy nevertheless fails to the extent that it fosters the polarized fragmentation of networked communication and undermines the credibility of IO communication as a source of trustworthy information across polarized “echo chambers.” The paper illustrates this argument through a content and social network analysis of Twitter communication on the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM). Remarkably, instead of facilitating cross-cluster communication (“building bridges”) Twitter handles run by the United Nations Department of Global Communications (UNDGC) seem to have substantially fostered ideological fragmentation (“digging the trench”) by their way of partisan retweeting, mentioning, and (hash)tagging.

国际组织传播部门是全球治理的重要中介,越来越多地利用社交媒体直接接触公民。社交媒体给IO传播带来了新的挑战,例如高度竞争的注意力经济,以及由网络内容管理和选择性曝光驱动的受众碎片化。在这种情况下,传播部门必须就传播什么和如何传播做出艰难的选择,这加剧了作为全面公共信息(旨在提高制度透明度)和党派政治倡导(旨在改变规范)的IO传播之间的内在紧张关系。如果IO的传播侧重于宣传,它可能会在社交媒体上获得巨大的共鸣。然而,这种主张在一定程度上是失败的,因为它助长了网络通信的两极分化,破坏了IO通信作为跨两极分化的“回音室”可靠信息来源的可信度。本文通过对Twitter关于《安全、有序和正常移民全球契约》(GCM)传播的内容和社会网络分析来说明这一论点。值得注意的是,由联合国全球传播部(UNDGC)运营的Twitter账号并没有促进跨集群通信(“搭建桥梁”),反而通过党派转发、提及和(散列)标签的方式,在实质上助长了意识形态的分裂(“挖沟”)。
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引用次数: 0
How backsliding governments keep the European Union hospitable for autocracy: Evidence from intergovernmental negotiations 倒退的政府如何让欧盟对独裁保持友好:来自政府间谈判的证据
Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09518-z
Thomas Winzen

The European Union (EU) is a democratic organization but faces severe cases of democratic backsliding. The literature deems the EU a hospitable environment for and reluctant to reign in backsliding. This study focuses on the tactics that backsliding governments employ to preserve this hospitable environment and the conditions under which they succeed. I argue that backsliding governments seek to repurpose the practice of accommodation that permeates EU decision-making for the protection of their backsliding projects. Doing so promises backsliders an escape from their precarious bargaining position in a democratic organization but comes with constraints. Backsliders must limit opposition carefully to a subset of EU competences, backsliding-inhibiting competences, that threaten their backsliding projects the most. Moreover, they can only rely on accommodation in the Council if the democratic member states perceive opposition as justified and remain insulated from political accountability by Europe’s parliaments. I present evidence based on quantitative and qualitative analyses of bargaining positions, processes, and outcomes in EU decision-making. The results have implications for understanding the EU’s autocratic predicament, the opportunities of backsliding governments, and the role of autocracies in regional and international organizations.

欧盟(EU)是一个民主组织,但面临着严重的民主倒退。文献认为欧盟是一个好客的环境,不愿意统治倒退。这项研究的重点是,倒退的政府采用的策略,以保持这种好客的环境和他们成功的条件。我认为,倒退的政府寻求重新利用渗透在欧盟决策中的迁就做法,以保护其倒退的项目。这样做可以让退步者摆脱他们在民主组织中不稳定的谈判地位,但也有限制。倒退者必须谨慎地将反对限制在欧盟能力的一部分,即抑制倒退的能力,这对他们的倒退项目构成了最大的威胁。此外,如果民主成员国认为反对是合理的,并且不受欧洲议会的政治问责,它们只能依赖于理事会的迁就。我提出了基于定量和定性分析讨价还价的立场,过程和结果在欧盟决策的证据。研究结果对理解欧盟的专制困境、政府倒退的机会以及专制在地区和国际组织中的作用具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Ronny Patz and Klaus H. Goetz. 2019. Managing Money and Discord in the UN: Budgeting and Bureaucracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press) 罗尼·帕兹和克劳斯·h·格茨,2019。《联合国的资金管理与纷争:预算与官僚主义》(牛津:牛津大学出版社)
Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09514-3
Sebastian Haug
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引用次数: 0
Christina L. Davis. 2023. Discriminatory Clubs: The Geopolitics of International Organizations. (Princeton: Princeton University Press) 克里斯蒂娜·l·戴维斯,2023。歧视性俱乐部:国际组织的地缘政治。(普林斯顿:普林斯顿大学出版社)
Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09515-2
Randall W. Stone
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引用次数: 0
Trojan horses in liberal international organizations? How democratic backsliders undermine the UNHRC 自由派国际组织中的特洛伊木马?民主倒退者如何破坏联合国人权委员会
Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09511-6
Anna M. Meyerrose, Irfan Nooruddin

Liberal democracy is facing renewed challenges from a growing group of states undergoing democratic backsliding. While entrenched autocrats have long resented and contested the established liberal order, we know far less about how newer backsliding states behave on the international stage. We argue these states, who joined prominent western liberal institutions prior to their backsliding, will use their established membership in these organizations both to protect themselves from future scrutiny regarding adherence to liberal democratic values and to oppose the prevailing western liberal norms that increasingly conflict with their evolving interests. Using voting data from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) from 2006-2021, we show that backsliding states are more likely to vote against targeted resolutions that name and shame specific countries. We supplement this analysis with detailed data from the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) and combine regression analysis and a structural topic model (STM) to show that backsliding states are more critical in their UPR reports when evaluating advanced western democracies, and more likely to emphasize issues that align with their own interests while de-emphasizing ones that might threaten government power and control over citizens.

自由民主正面临着来自越来越多的民主倒退国家的新挑战。尽管根深蒂固的独裁者长期以来一直对既定的自由秩序感到不满和质疑,但我们对新的倒退国家在国际舞台上的行为知之甚少。我们认为,这些国家在倒退之前加入了著名的西方自由主义机构,他们将利用自己在这些组织中的既定成员身份,既保护自己免受未来对自由民主价值观遵守情况的审查,又反对与他们不断发展的利益日益冲突的主流西方自由主义规范。利用联合国人权理事会2006-2021年的投票数据,我们发现,倒退的国家更有可能投票反对点名羞辱特定国家的有针对性的决议。我们用普遍定期审议(UPR)的详细数据补充了这一分析,并将回归分析和结构主题模型(STM)相结合,表明在评估先进的西方民主国家时,倒退的国家在其普遍定期审议报告中更为关键,更有可能强调符合自身利益的问题,而不强调可能威胁政府权力和对公民控制的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Empowering your victims: Why repressive regimes allow individual petitions in international organizations 赋予受害者权力:为什么专制政权允许国际组织中的个人请愿
Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09512-5
Rachel J. Schoner

The growing literature explaining why repressive regimes ratify human rights treaties fails to explain why some regimes take the additional step to delegate authority to their people to file international legal complaints while others do not. I examine individual petition mechanisms in the United Nations which allow individuals to file complaints to an overseeing treaty body. I argue that repressive regimes face international incentives to signal their commitment to the European Union, a global power with a strong and continued interest in the global human rights regime. Repressive regimes, however, only ratify agreements when they perceive low domestic costs with little institutional constraints on the executive. In support of my theory, I find that repressive regimes are more likely to ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights’ Optional Protocol allowing individual petitions when they are trade dependent on the EU while facing lesser institutional constraints, both legislative and judicial. The results are similar to explaining treaty ratification, but the interaction is substantively larger for OP ratification among repressive countries, highlighting the increased costs repressive leaders face to allowing individual petitions. Individual standing in the overseeing body of the ICCPR is one example of non-state actor access in international institutions, which is an important component of understanding institutional design and compliance.

越来越多的文献解释了专制政权为什么批准人权条约,但却未能解释为什么一些政权采取了额外的步骤,将提交国际法律申诉的权力下放给人民,而另一些政权则没有。我审查了联合国允许个人向监督条约机构提出申诉的个人请愿机制。我认为,专制政权面临着国际激励,以表明他们对欧盟的承诺,欧盟是一个对全球人权制度有着强烈和持续兴趣的全球大国。然而,专制政权只有在认为国内成本低、对行政部门几乎没有制度约束的情况下才会批准协议。为了支持我的理论,我发现镇压政权更有可能批准《公民权利和政治权利国际公约任择议定书》,当他们在贸易上依赖欧盟,同时面临较少的立法和司法制度限制时,允许个人请愿。结果与解释批准条约类似,但镇压国家之间批准《行动纲领》的互动要大得多,这突出了镇压领导人在允许个人请愿方面面临的成本增加。个人在《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》监督机构中的地位是非国家行为者进入国际机构的一个例子,这是理解制度设计和遵守情况的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Sharing rivals, sending weapons: Rivalry and cooperation in the international arms trade, 1920–1939 分享对手,发送武器:国际武器贸易中的竞争与合作,1920-1939
Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09501-8
Marius Mehrl, Daniel Seussler, Paul W. Thurner

States must navigate the structure of the international system in their relations with other states. One crucial component of this structure are rivalries as they indicate latent threat to states. Rivalries should thus influence how states behave within the given system, but also how they seek to shape and restructure it. Focusing on arms transfers, we clarify how the systemic structure implied by rivalries drives states’ efforts to engage in security cooperation with other states. Intuitively, a rivalry with another country should diminish an exporter’s propensity to transfer weapons there. But what is more, we argue that rivalries outside of this focal dyad matter as a potential importer’s enmity towards other countries will reveal information about its security interests to the exporter. Specifically, sharing rivalries with the same set of countries will signal to the exporter that there is a congruence in security interests and thus facilitate security cooperation. This security cooperation should take the form of arms transfers, at least if exporters value buck-passing and fear entrapment. We test our expectations using original data on Major Conventional Weapons transfers in the Interwar years, a period where this condition likely holds, and inferential network analysis models. Sharing rivals increases two countries’ probability to trade arms whereas a rivalry between countries exhibits no effect. This research contributes to our understanding of security cooperation, the arms trade, and networked international relations.

各国在与其他国家的关系中必须驾驭国际体系的结构。这种结构的一个关键组成部分是竞争,因为它们表明对国家的潜在威胁。因此,竞争不仅会影响各国在既定体系内的行为,还会影响它们寻求塑造和重组体系的方式。我们以武器转让为重点,阐明了竞争所隐含的系统结构如何推动国家与其他国家开展安全合作。直觉上,与另一个国家的竞争应该会减少出口国向该国转移武器的倾向。但更重要的是,我们认为,在这个焦点问题之外的竞争,作为一个潜在的进口国对其他国家的敌意,将向出口国泄露有关其安全利益的信息。具体而言,与同一组国家共同竞争将向出口国发出安全利益一致的信号,从而促进安全合作。这种安全合作应该采取武器转让的形式,至少如果出口商重视推卸责任和担心落入圈套的话。我们使用两次世界大战期间主要常规武器转让的原始数据和推理网络分析模型来测试我们的期望,这一时期可能存在这种情况。共享对手增加了两国进行武器贸易的可能性,而国与国之间的竞争则没有效果。这项研究有助于我们对安全合作、武器贸易和网络化国际关系的理解。
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引用次数: 0
A paradox of openness: Democracies, financial integration & crisis 开放的悖论:民主、金融一体化与危机
Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09502-7
Devin Case-Ruchala

Why do democracies experience financial crises more often than non-democracies? Revisiting the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) as a significant and informative test case, I argue that considering the way domestic institutions inhere in system-level structures is important to explaining crisis susceptibility among democracies since the turn of the twenty-first century. I introduce the mechanism of co-regime financial connections in showing that regime type is an important systematic feature of global financial flows. Employing a latent space network regression model using IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), I find that the network of cross-border portfolio asset investments is systematically patterned by co-democracy pairs. I then show that this regime-patterned interdependence affects increased financial crisis susceptibility among democracies. My findings build on literature highlighting the interdependence between domestic- and system-level factors and inform an empirical puzzle regarding the prevalence of financial crises among democracies.

为什么民主国家比非民主国家更容易经历金融危机?回顾2008年金融大危机(GFC)作为一个重要且信息丰富的测试案例,我认为考虑系统级结构中固有的国内制度方式对于解释21世纪之交以来民主国家的危机敏感性非常重要。我介绍了共同制度金融联系的机制,表明制度类型是全球金融流动的一个重要系统特征。利用国际货币基金组织协调组合投资调查(CPIS)的潜在空间网络回归模型,我发现跨境组合资产投资网络是由共同民主对系统地模式化的。然后,我表明,这种以政权为模式的相互依存关系会增加民主国家对金融危机的敏感性。我的发现建立在强调国内和制度层面因素之间相互依赖的文献基础上,并揭示了一个关于民主国家金融危机普遍存在的实证难题。
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引用次数: 0
Why hide? Africa’s unreported debt to China 为什么隐藏?非洲欠中国的未报告债务
Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09513-4
Kathleen J. Brown
Abstract Hidden debt is endemic throughout the sovereign credit market and poses a serious threat to global financial stability. Yet, little is known about why governments conceal their liabilities from creditors. I argue that governments intentionally hide debts from international financial institutions (IFIs) to maximize their ability to borrow while avoiding punishment for rising debt burdens. IFIs frequently penalize governments in low-income countries for borrowing beyond their means. By hiding some debt, governments are able to continue borrowing without being disciplined. I test this using recently released data that reveals half of the Chinese loans in Sub-Saharan Africa are missing from sovereign debt records. I find that borrower governments hide loans to avoid violating World Bank debt sustainability thresholds. However, governments hide less debt while under IMF scrutiny so as to reduce the risk that they will be discovered and punished. These findings offer evidence that borrower governments use hidden debt as a strategic tool to pursue fiscal goals. Further, this work reveals the unintended consequences of IFI intervention in less-developed countries, as efforts to ensure fiscal stability increase governments’ incentives to hide debt.
隐性债务是主权信用市场普遍存在的问题,对全球金融稳定构成严重威胁。然而,人们对政府为何向债权人隐瞒债务知之甚少。我认为,政府故意向国际金融机构(IFIs)隐藏债务,以最大限度地提高其借款能力,同时避免因债务负担增加而受到惩罚。国际金融机构经常惩罚低收入国家的政府,因为它们的借款超出了它们的能力。通过隐藏一些债务,政府可以在不受约束的情况下继续借款。我用最近公布的数据验证了这一点,数据显示,中国在撒哈拉以南非洲的贷款有一半没有出现在主权债务记录中。我发现借款国政府隐藏贷款,以避免违反世界银行的债务可持续性门槛。然而,各国政府在接受国际货币基金组织审查时隐瞒的债务较少,以降低被发现和惩罚的风险。这些发现为借款国政府将隐性债务作为实现财政目标的战略工具提供了证据。此外,这项工作揭示了国际金融机构干预欠发达国家的意想不到的后果,因为确保财政稳定的努力增加了政府隐藏债务的动机。
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引用次数: 1
Migration and development finance: A survey experiment on diaspora bonds 移民与发展金融:散居侨民债券的调查实验
Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09505-4
Lindsay R. Dolan, Alexandra O. Zeitz
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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