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Estimating energy demand for decarbonising the aviation and maritime fleets of Germany: An agent-based technology diffusion approach considering investment behaviour 估计德国航空和海运舰队脱碳的能源需求:考虑投资行为的基于代理的技术扩散方法
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100557
Manish Khanra , Shashank Deepak Prabhu , Martin Wietschel
As hard-to-abate transport sectors, aviation and maritime are major CO2 emitters for which decarbonisation is particularly difficult to achieve. Meaningful emission cuts depend on the uptake of emerging low-carbon propulsion technologies. Therefore, understanding their diffusion and the associated energy demand is vital for achieving long-term climate goals. This study estimates the future propulsion fuel demand for German-registered aviation fleets and the bunkering fuel demand for maritime fleets by simulating the adoption of emerging technologies within a data-driven, agent-based diffusion model. The analysis considered fleet age, technology readiness, infrastructure availability, and regulatory measures. The decision-making framework for technology adoption was modelled using utility maximisation, where both economic and environmental utilities contributed to an overall utility score. This study examined two future scenarios for technology adoption. In the first scenario, investment decisions were primarily driven by economic utility, whereas in the second, an accelerated scenario emphasised on environmental considerations. Both scenarios were evaluated against a baseline scenario of continued use of existing technologies. Under Scenario 2, CO2 emissions in aviation reduced by 82%, and by 15% in maritime by 2050, relative to the baseline. However, these reductions demanded significantly higher electricity, primarily due to the production of fuels like hydrogen and synthetic fuels. By 2050, electricity demand for decarbonising the fleet portfolio is projected to rise to 80 TWh, while maritime demand remains stable at approximately 35 TWh.
作为难以减排的运输部门,航空和海运是主要的二氧化碳排放源,脱碳尤其难以实现。有意义的减排取决于新兴低碳推进技术的采用。因此,了解它们的扩散和相关的能源需求对于实现长期气候目标至关重要。本研究通过在数据驱动的基于代理的扩散模型中模拟新兴技术的采用,估计了德国注册航空机队未来的推进燃料需求和海运机队的加油燃料需求。分析考虑了机队年龄、技术准备、基础设施可用性和监管措施。技术采用的决策框架采用效用最大化建模,其中经济和环境效用都贡献了总体效用得分。本研究考察了技术采用的两种未来情景。在第一种情景中,投资决定主要是由经济效用驱动的,而在第二种情景中,加速情景强调环境考虑。根据继续使用现有技术的基线情景对这两种情景进行了评估。在情景2中,相对于基线,到2050年,航空业的二氧化碳排放量减少82%,航运业减少15%。然而,这些减少需要更高的电力,主要是由于生产氢和合成燃料等燃料。到2050年,船队脱碳的电力需求预计将上升到80太瓦时,而海上需求将稳定在35太瓦时左右。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the synergies between carbon capture, energy technologies, and policy frameworks 探索碳捕获、能源技术和政策框架之间的协同作用
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100569
Mengqi Zhang , Ekundayo Shittu
Recent policy shifts increasingly promote carbon capture and storage (CCS) to decarbonize fossil fuel-based power generation, rather than mandating outright plant retirements. However, limited research has examined the operational and investment implications of integrating CCS under overlapping policy regimes. This paper addresses that gap by evaluating how emerging CCS-supportive regulations—exemplified by the U.S. EPA’s May 2024 rules—affect power system expansion and operations. Using a Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model and the IEEE-118 bus system, we simulate capacity investments and dispatch decisions for coal and gas plants through 2032, under the EPA’s 90 % carbon reduction mandate. Results reveal that CCS integration may introduce system inefficiencies, particularly when layered with other climate policies. This study provides critical insights into the trade-offs and unintended consequences of CCS-centered decarbonization strategies, informing more coherent and effective policy design.
最近的政策转变越来越多地促进碳捕获和储存(CCS),以使基于化石燃料的发电脱碳,而不是强制彻底淘汰工厂。然而,有限的研究考察了在重叠政策制度下整合CCS的操作和投资影响。本文通过评估新兴的ccs支持法规(以美国环保署2024年5月的法规为例)如何影响电力系统的扩展和运营来解决这一差距。利用发电扩展规划(GEP)模型和IEEE-118总线系统,我们模拟了到2032年煤炭和天然气发电厂的产能投资和调度决策,在EPA的90%碳减排要求下。结果表明,CCS整合可能会导致系统效率低下,特别是当与其他气候政策分层时。本研究对以ccs为中心的脱碳战略的权衡和意外后果提供了重要见解,为更连贯和有效的政策设计提供了信息。
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引用次数: 0
Water-energy nexus and GHG emissions of cropping systems under varying field management practices in arid India 印度干旱地区不同田间管理方式下种植系统的水能关系和温室气体排放
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100565
Vijay Singh Rathore , Narayan Singh Nathawat , Seema Bhardwaj , Bhagirath Mal Yadav , Mahesh Kumar , Ravindra Singh Shekhawat , Dinesh Kumar , Banwari Lal , Priyanka Gautam
Agricultural systems involve interdependencies among water, energy, food, and the environment. Understanding these linkages is crucial for developing resource-efficient systems and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to achieve sustainability. This study evaluated energy input-output analysis and GHG emissions, and assessed the interconnections among water, energy, and GHG emissions using a nexus approach of three cropping systems [cluster bean–wheat (CB-W), cluster bean–Indian mustard (CB-IM), cluster bean–isabgol (CB-IG)]under different field management practices in arid region of India. Field management practices included two tillage types [conventional (CT), deep tillage (DT)] and three farmyard manure (FYM) application rates (0, 5, 10 Mg ha⁻¹). A cradle-to-farm gate life cycle assessment was used to estimate energy use and GHG emissions. Non-renewable inputs such as electricity, fertilizers, and diesel accounted for over 80% of total energy use, with nitrogen fertilizer, diesel, and electricity being the main sources of GHG emissions. GHG emissions were highly correlated with energy use (r² = 0.93). Diversified systems (CB-IM, CB-IG) reduced groundwater irrigation, energy use, and GHG emissions by 27.9–37.2%, 22.9–37.4%, and 20.0–46.0%, respectively, compared to the traditional CB-W system. Field management practices influenced agro-economic performance, energy efficiency, and GHG emissions. DT and FYM improved water and energy productivities. The water-energy-food-GHG nexus scores were higher for CB-IG (0.773) and CB-IM (0.507) than for CB –W (0.182), with CB-IG under DT and FYM (10 Mg ha⁻¹) achieved the highest score (0.854). These results suggest that integrating suitable field management practices (e.g. deep tillage and FYM application) with diversified cropping system can enhance sustainability by reducing water and energy use and lowering environmental impacts. This approach reduces water and energy consumption while aligning with long-term environmental and economic goals, offering valuable insights for improving agricultural management in other resource-limited regions.
农业系统涉及水、能源、粮食和环境之间的相互依赖关系。了解这些联系对于开发资源节约型系统和减少温室气体(GHG)排放以实现可持续性至关重要。本研究对印度干旱区三种种植制度[丛豆-小麦(CB-W)、丛豆-印度芥菜(CB-IM)、丛豆-芒芥(CB-IG)]在不同田间管理实践下的水、能源和温室气体排放之间的相互关系进行了评价。田间管理实践包括两种耕作方式[常规(CT)、深耕(DT)]和三种农家肥(FYM)施用量(0、5、10 Mg ha -毒葫芦)。使用从摇篮到农场的生命周期评估来估算能源使用和温室气体排放。电力、化肥和柴油等不可再生投入占总能源使用量的80%以上,其中氮肥、柴油和电力是温室气体排放的主要来源。温室气体排放与能源使用高度相关(r²= 0.93)。与传统的CB-W系统相比,CB-IM、CB-IG系统分别减少了27.9 ~ 37.2%的地下水灌溉、22.9 ~ 37.4%的能源消耗和20.0 ~ 46.0%的温室气体排放。田间管理实践影响农业经济绩效、能源效率和温室气体排放。DT和FYM提高了水和能源生产率。CB- ig(0.773)和CB- im(0.507)的水-能-食物-温室气体联结得分高于CB -W(0.182),其中CB- ig在DT和FYM (10 Mg ha - 1)下得分最高(0.854)。这些结果表明,将适当的田间管理措施(如深耕和施用FYM)与多样化的种植制度相结合,可以通过减少水和能源的使用以及降低环境影响来提高可持续性。这种方法减少了水和能源消耗,同时符合长期环境和经济目标,为改善其他资源有限地区的农业管理提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the energy-water-food nexus in Qatar: Balancing crop imports and local production 评估卡塔尔的能源-水-粮食关系:平衡作物进口和当地生产
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100568
Sa’d Shannak , Raka Jovanovic , Antonio Sanfilippo , Sarah Namany , Abdellah Kafi , Tareq Al-Ansari
Agriculture accounts for approximately 70 % of the global water demand and 30 % of the global energy demand. Finding an optimal balance in the provi- sion of food through imports or local production is therefore crucial in secur- ing energy and water sustainability. The literature on this subject has mostly focused on either local production or import strategies, and there is a need to integrate these elements into a unified framework. We address this need by developing a novel mathematical model that performs a nuanced analysis of self-sufficiency rates, price differentials, and import patterns through the integration of economic, environmental, and policy constraints. The ensu- ing analysis offers an evaluation of energy and water sustainability in the light of trade-offs between food imports vs. local production. Considering factors such as the energy required for water pumping in local crop produc- tion and the water footprint in the importing countries, the model elucidates the water and energy demands associated food imports and local production evaluating trade-offs between local production and imports. Results reveal that in scenarios with three import partners, the optimal distributions are consistently 40 %, 30 %, and 30 % when minimizing cost based on 2022 prices. However, with more import partners, distribution becomes price-dependent, indicating a need for enhanced government coordination and a more holistic approach to balancing local production and imports that accounts for energy and water resource constraints.
农业约占全球用水需求的70%,占全球能源需求的30%。因此,在通过进口或当地生产提供粮食方面找到最佳平衡对于确保能源和水的可持续性至关重要。关于这一问题的文献大多集中于当地生产或进口战略,有必要将这些因素纳入一个统一的框架。我们通过开发一种新的数学模型来解决这一需求,该模型通过整合经济、环境和政策约束,对自给率、价格差异和进口模式进行了细致入微的分析。随后的分析根据粮食进口与当地生产之间的权衡,对能源和水的可持续性进行了评估。考虑到当地作物生产中抽水所需的能源和进口国的水足迹等因素,该模型阐明了与粮食进口和当地生产相关的水和能源需求,并评估了当地生产和进口之间的权衡。结果表明,在有三个进口伙伴的情况下,基于2022年价格的成本最小化时,最优分配始终为40%、30%和30%。然而,随着进口伙伴的增多,分销就变得依赖于价格,这表明需要加强政府协调和采取更全面的办法来平衡当地生产和进口,这是能源和水资源限制的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Farm-level water-energy-food nexus optimisation using hybrid metaheuristic–mathematical programming 使用混合元启发式数学规划的农场级水-能量-食物关系优化
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100559
Marcill van den Berg , Bennie Grové , Nicolette Matthews , Johan Barnard
Irrigation decision-making is a complex, multidimensional challenge requiring integrated water and energy management to maximise farm profitability. Existing agricultural decision-making frameworks fail to optimise farm-level interactions between water and energy management in food production because simplifying assumptions are made to model crop-water interactions, resulting in researchers being unable to model deficit irrigation at the farm level. This research develops a farm-level water-energy-food (WEF) nexus optimisation framework incorporating a more detailed presentation of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum to more realistically estimate irrigators’ response to policies affecting the WEF nexus at the farm level. The framework uses Differential Evolution to evolve AquaCrop irrigation schedules in a farm-level mathematical programming model to optimality, using the programming model’s objective function value to assess the irrigation schedules’ fitness in optimising farm-level water and energy management. The developed framework is applied to evaluate the impact of water charging methods (i.e., area-based and volumetric) and water availability on the profitability of a representative field crop farm in the Vanderkloof Water User Association command area. The results showed realistic trade-offs between irrigated area expansion (extensive margin) and deficit irrigation (intensive margin) within farm-level constraints, given the incentives created by the water charging methods. Volumetric water charges encourage efficient water use, prompting irrigators to adopt deficit irrigation to maximise profits within water quotas. Irrigators will require decision support to reconcile conventional irrigation practices satisfying crop water requirements with deficit irrigation strategies to maximise profit. The overall conclusion is that the flexibility of the optimisation framework provides a means to solve complex bio-economic models with complicated farm-level interactions and constraints.
灌溉决策是一个复杂的、多方面的挑战,需要综合的水和能源管理来最大限度地提高农场的盈利能力。现有的农业决策框架未能优化粮食生产中水和能源管理之间的农场层面的相互作用,因为简化了假设来模拟作物与水的相互作用,导致研究人员无法在农场层面模拟赤字灌溉。本研究开发了一个农场层面的水-能源-食物(WEF)关系优化框架,该框架结合了土壤-植物-大气连续体的更详细介绍,以更现实地估计灌溉者对影响农场层面WEF关系的政策的反应。该框架使用差分进化将AquaCrop灌溉计划在农场级数学规划模型中进化到最优,使用规划模型的目标函数值来评估灌溉计划在优化农场级水和能源管理方面的适应性。开发的框架被用于评估水收费方法(即基于区域和体积的)和水的可用性对Vanderkloof用水用户协会指挥地区的一个代表性大田作物农场的盈利能力的影响。结果表明,考虑到水收费方法所产生的激励,在农田水平的约束下,灌溉面积扩大(粗放型边际)和灌溉赤字(集约型边际)之间存在现实的权衡。体积水费鼓励有效用水,促使灌溉者采用亏缺灌溉,以在用水配额内实现利润最大化。灌溉者将需要决策支持,以协调满足作物用水需求的传统灌溉方法与实现利润最大化的亏缺灌溉策略。总体结论是,优化框架的灵活性为解决具有复杂农场层面相互作用和约束的复杂生物经济模型提供了一种手段。
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引用次数: 0
Optimized biohydrogen production from sewage sludge: Advanced pretreatment strategies in dark fermentation and microbial electrolysis cells 污水污泥产氢优化:暗发酵和微生物电解细胞的先进预处理策略
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100573
Hikmatullah Ahmadi , Anam Jalil , Sohail Khan , Ndayisenga Fabrice , Chengyu Zhang , Zhisheng Yu
The production of biohydrogen from sewage sludge presents a promising avenue for sustainable energy conversion and pollution control. This study systematically evaluates biohydrogen (bio-H₂) production through dark fermentation (DF) and single-chamber microbial electrolysis cells (MECs), employing diverse substrate pretreatment methods, including acidic, ultrasonic, heat, alkaline, and a novel combined CalciumCarbonate-2Potassiumhydroxide (CCPH) pretreatment. The findings reveal that these pretreatments significantly enhance the accumulation of proteins, carbohydrates, and volatile fatty acids (VFAs), with the DF phase further augmenting the solubilization of these critical components. Notably, 90–95% of carbohydrate and protein accumulation occurs during the pretreatment phase, which concurrently suppresses methanogenesis in sewage sludge, thereby optimizing conditions for bio-H₂ production in subsequent MEC processes. Among the pretreatments, CCPH-P demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a total volatile fatty acid (TVFAs) concentration of 1,962 ± 124 mg/L post-dark fermentation, representing an 11.4-fold increase compared to untreated sludge. In MEC experiments, CCPH-P sludge attains a maximum current density of 172.5 A/m³ and an average bio-H₂ yield of 133.071 ml/g VS, underscoring its efficiency in electrochemical hydrogen recovery. Acetic and propionic acids, derived from sludge fermentation, emerge as the predominant electron donors, constituting approximately 80% of the total VFAs content across all pretreated substrates. Metagenomic analysis further reveals that Firmicutes exhibit the highest relative abundance, ranging from 60% to 88% in pretreated substrates, compared to merely 10.5% in untreated sewage sludge. These results collectively indicate that CCPH-pre-treatment serves as a viable and efficient method for enhancing biohydrogen recovery from sewage sludge through DF and MEC systems, thereby advancing the potential for waste-to-energy applications.
从污水污泥中生产生物氢为可持续能源转换和污染控制提供了一条有前途的途径。本研究系统地评价了通过暗发酵(DF)和单室微生物电解细胞(MECs)生产生物氢(bio-H₂),采用不同的底物预处理方法,包括酸性、超声波、热、碱性和新型碳酸钙-2氢氧化钾(CCPH)联合预处理。研究结果表明,这些预处理显著提高了蛋白质、碳水化合物和挥发性脂肪酸(VFAs)的积累,而DF相进一步增强了这些关键成分的增溶作用。值得注意的是,90-95%的碳水化合物和蛋白质积累发生在预处理阶段,这同时抑制了污泥中的甲烷生成,从而优化了后续MEC工艺中生物h 2生成的条件。在预处理中,CCPH-P表现出优异的性能,暗发酵后总挥发性脂肪酸(TVFAs)浓度为1,962±124 mg/L,比未经处理的污泥增加11.4倍。在MEC实验中,CCPH-P污泥的最大电流密度为172.5 a /m³,平均生物h₂产率为133.071 ml/g VS,体现了其电化学氢回收的效率。来自污泥发酵的乙酸和丙酸是主要的电子供体,约占所有预处理底物中VFAs总量的80%。宏基因组分析进一步显示,厚壁菌门的相对丰度最高,在预处理底物中为60%至88%,而在未经处理的污水污泥中仅为10.5%。这些结果共同表明,通过DF和MEC系统,ccph预处理是一种可行且有效的方法,可以提高污泥中生物氢的回收率,从而提高废物转化为能源的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Design of tractor hybrid electric powertrain and optimization control strategy based on dynamic programming algorithm 拖拉机混合动力系统设计及基于动态规划算法的优化控制策略
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100558
Baogang Li , Jinbo Pan , Yuhuan Li , Fazhan Yang , Hanjun Jiang , Fuhao Liu , Zunmin Liu
To improve energy efficiency and fuel consumption, this study proposed a high‐power hybrid tractor system and developed a control strategy. Building upon the typical working characteristics of traditional tractors and the continuous speed regulation features of planetary gear transmissions in hybrid systems, a novel high‐power hybrid architecture was designed. A corresponding simulation model was established, and an energy management strategy based on dynamic programming algorithms was developed for optimization. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed hybrid tractor can deliver a maximum power output of over 200 kW, meeting the demands of high‐horsepower farm operations. Moreover, the dynamic programming‐based control strategy keeps both the engine and motor operating within high‐efficiency intervals, thereby considerably reducing fuel consumption. After optimization, the equivalent fuel consumption under traction conditions decreased from 2.76 L to 2.5 L-a reduction of 10.4 %. Under full operating load, the equivalent fuel consumption was reduced from 18.55 L to 16.7 L, achieving an 11.02 % improvement. These results confirmed a substantial increase in overall energy utilization efficiency. The high‐power hybrid tractor developed in this study provides valuable insights into the design of energy‐efficient agricultural machinery and offers a practical reference for formulating intelligent energy management strategies in agricultural engineering applications.
为了提高拖拉机的能源效率和燃料消耗,本研究提出了一种大功率混合动力拖拉机系统,并制定了控制策略。基于传统拖拉机的典型工作特性和混合动力系统中行星齿轮传动的连续调速特性,设计了一种新型的大功率混合动力机构。建立了相应的仿真模型,并开发了基于动态规划算法的能量管理策略进行优化。仿真结果表明,所提出的混合动力拖拉机可以提供超过200千瓦的最大功率输出,满足大马力农场运营的需求。此外,基于动态规划的控制策略使发动机和电机在高效率的间隔内运行,从而大大降低了燃油消耗。优化后,牵引力条件下的等效油耗从2.76升降至2.5升,降低10.4%。在全负荷工况下,当量油耗由18.55 L降至16.7 L,提高11.02%。这些结果证实了整体能源利用效率的大幅提高。本研究开发的大功率混合动力拖拉机为高效节能农业机械的设计提供了有价值的见解,并为农业工程应用中制定智能能源管理策略提供了实用参考。
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引用次数: 0
A literature review of the food–energy–water nexus trade-offs and synergies research at the household level 食物-能源-水关系的权衡和家庭层面的协同效应研究的文献综述
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100562
Thulani Ningi , Jeffrey D Mullen
Food–energy–water (F–E–W) nexus research has increased because of the rising worldwide demand for nutritious food, affordable and efficient energy and high-quality water resources. However, current studies primarily focus on securing these resources without fully addressing interconnectedness, trade-offs and potential synergies. Hence, this review scrutinizes the F–E–W nexus literature to understand current research trends exploring the trade-offs and synergies within household-level food–energy–water interconnectedness, with the objective of aiding policy creation. Unlike existing reviews that primarily analyze the F–E–W nexus at global, national, or regional scales, this study uniquely examines the direct trade-offs and synergies that households experience daily. The analysis was conducted using databases such as Scopus and Web of Science. This review found that current research mostly studies pathways and correlations between resources but does not specifically identify the trade-offs that households may minimize or the synergies they can utilize to achieve optimal food, energy and water security. Many studies either analyse the trade-offs between two resources or consider trade-offs and synergies as distinct concepts. This review asserts that the interdependencies and interactions within the F–E–W nexus significantly affect the security of energy, food and water resources at the household level. It highlights the need to recognise these connections in the strategic planning and administration of these essential resources.
粮食-能源-水(F-E-W)关系的研究已经增加,因为世界范围内对营养食品、负担得起的高效能源和高质量水资源的需求不断增加。然而,目前的研究主要集中在确保这些资源,而没有充分解决相互联系、权衡和潜在的协同作用。因此,本文回顾了F-E-W关系文献,以了解当前的研究趋势,探索家庭层面食物-能源-水相互联系中的权衡和协同作用,目的是帮助制定政策。与现有的主要分析全球、国家或地区尺度上的F-E-W关系的综述不同,本研究独特地考察了家庭日常经历的直接权衡和协同效应。分析是使用Scopus和Web of Science等数据库进行的。本综述发现,目前的研究主要研究资源之间的途径和相关性,但没有具体确定家庭可以最大限度地减少取舍,或者他们可以利用协同效应来实现最佳的粮食、能源和水安全。许多研究要么分析两种资源之间的权衡,要么将权衡和协同效应视为不同的概念。这篇综述认为,F-E-W关系内的相互依赖和相互作用显著影响家庭一级的能源、粮食和水资源安全。它强调了在这些重要资源的战略规划和管理中认识到这些联系的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing sustainable bioethanol production from organic waste by integrating life cycle modeling 通过整合生命周期模型,推进有机废物的可持续生物乙醇生产
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100563
Khadija Sajid , Muhammad Hassan Javed , Ala'a H. Al-Muhtaseb , Mohammad Rehan , Mohammad Ilyas Khan , Farayi Musharavati , Muhammad Waqas Anjum , Muhammad Naqvi , Muhammad Ali , Muhammad Rizwan Tabassum , Abdul-Sattar Nizami
This study aims to optimize the environmental and economic benefits of producing bioethanol from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste in Pakistan. The country generates approximately 71,000 kg of OFMSW annually, yet no facility currently exists for its conversion into bioethanol. Leveraging the availability of OFMSW, this study designs a bioethanol production plant and evaluates its environmental sustainability through an attributional life cycle assessment using the ReCiPe (H) model. Results indicate that 154 kg of bioethanol can be produced from every 1 ton of organic waste. Compared to current landfilling practices, bioethanol production from OFMSW demonstrates lower environmental burdens, including climate change potential (3.05E-05 kg CO₂ eq), photochemical ozone formation (132 kg NOx eq), human toxicity (13.6 kg 1,4-DB eq), eutrophication potential (10.9 kg P eq), ozone depletion potential (0.0111 kg CFC-11 eq), and acidification potential (−5.39E-03 kg SO₂ eq). Scenario modelling assessed the integration of photovoltaic solar cells for electricity supply, showing a reduction in fine particulate matter emissions from 67.8 kg to 0.766 kg PM₂.₅ eq compared to grid electricity. Hotspot analysis identified key impact categories contributing to environmental burdens. The economic assessment revealed an annual revenue potential of approximately USD 528,330 from bioethanol sales. Overall, producing bioethanol from OFMSW presents a viable alternative fuel pathway that is both environmentally and economically beneficial, reduces landfill dependency, and supports the principles of a circular economy. This strategy contributes directly to achieving key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including responsible consumption and production, affordable clean energy, and climate action.
本研究旨在优化从巴基斯坦城市固体废物的有机部分生产生物乙醇的环境和经济效益。该国每年生产约71,000公斤OFMSW,但目前还没有将其转化为生物乙醇的设施。利用OFMSW的可用性,本研究设计了一个生物乙醇生产厂,并使用ReCiPe (H)模型通过归因生命周期评估来评估其环境可持续性。结果表明,每1吨有机废物可生产154公斤生物乙醇。与目前的填埋方法相比,从OFMSW中生产生物乙醇具有更低的环境负担,包括气候变化潜力(3.05E-05 kg CO₂当量)、光化学臭氧形成(132 kg NOx当量)、人体毒性(13.6 kg 1,4- db当量)、富营养化潜力(10.9 kg P当量)、臭氧消耗潜力(0.0111 kg CFC-11当量)和酸化潜力(- 5.39E-03 kg SO₂当量)。在情景模拟中,对光伏太阳能电池的电力供应进行了综合评估,结果显示,细颗粒物的排放量从67.8公斤减少到0.766公斤。与电网电力相比,₅eq。热点分析确定了造成环境负担的主要影响类别。经济评估显示,生物乙醇销售的年收入潜力约为528,330美元。总的来说,从OFMSW中生产生物乙醇是一种可行的替代燃料途径,既有利于环境,又有利于经济,减少对垃圾填埋场的依赖,并支持循环经济原则。这一战略直接有助于实现联合国可持续发展目标(sdg),包括负责任的消费和生产、负担得起的清洁能源和气候行动。
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引用次数: 0
Transforming arid regions: CLEWs–OSeMOSYS pathways for low-carbon jobs and circular resource loops 改造干旱地区:低碳工作和资源循环的CLEWs-OSeMOSYS途径
IF 9.5 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100552
Amirreza Khaleghian , Masoumeh Bararzadeh Ledari , Roya Vahedi , Maryam Fani
Arid regions face acute water scarcity, with traditional farming dominating groundwater use and employment. This study asks whether strict groundwater and carbon limits can sustain jobs while reducing emissions. Using the CLEWs–OSeMOSYS framework in Iran’s Khash region, this study quantifies low-carbon employment pathways and model circular resource loops—wastewater reuse, biowaste-to-energy, and CO₂ use in greenhouses.
Three 2020–2050 scenarios impose a 50 % groundwater cut and reduce traditional agriculture/livestock by 50–90 % under carbon caps of 30–90 %. In the base case, agriculture employs ∼32 000 workers (75 % of jobs), consumes 367 MCM of water, and emits 0.3 Mt CO₂. Under the most stringent pathway (SC III), withdrawals fall to 62 MCM (–84 %), emissions drop 90 %, and farm jobs shrink by 90 %. Yet total employment rises slightly (∼40 000), with 28 600 jobs in renewables, 8 100 in greenhouse farming, and 5 100 in CCUS-based ethylene. Circular measures generate 18.6 MW of biopower, meet 46 % of domestic water demand, and support 31.7 ha of CO₂-enriched greenhouses.
These results show that resource constraints can drive structural shifts toward resilient, low-carbon economies. Policy priorities include greenhouse adoption with reskilling, expansion of renewables and CCUS petrochemicals, and tariff reforms to incentivize reuse and biogas.
干旱地区面临着严重的水资源短缺,传统农业主导着地下水的使用和就业。这项研究的问题是,严格的地下水和碳排放限制能否在减少排放的同时维持就业。本研究利用伊朗卡什地区的CLEWs-OSeMOSYS框架,量化了低碳就业途径,并建立了循环资源循环模型——废水回用、生物废物转化为能源和温室中的二氧化碳利用。2020-2050年的三种情景要求地下水减少50%,在碳排放上限为30 - 90%的情况下,传统农业/畜牧业减少50 - 90%。在基本情况下,农业雇佣了约3.2万名工人(占就业岗位的75%),消耗了3.67亿立方米的水,排放了30亿吨的二氧化碳。在最严格的途径(SC III)下,提取量下降到62mcm(- 84%),排放量下降90%,农业就业减少90%。然而,总就业人数略有增加(约4万人),其中可再生能源行业就业人数为28600人,温室农业就业人数为8100人,以ccus为基础的乙烯行业就业人数为5100人。循环措施产生了18.6兆瓦的生物能源,满足了46%的生活用水需求,并支持了31.7公顷的二氧化碳富集温室。这些结果表明,资源约束可以推动结构性转变,使其向有弹性的低碳经济转变。政策重点包括温室气体采用再培训,可再生能源和CCUS石化产品的扩大,以及激励再利用和沼气的关税改革。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy nexus
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