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Regression and validation studies of the spread of novel COVID-19 in Iraq using mathematical and dynamic neural networks models: A case of the first six months of 2020 基于数学和动态神经网络模型的新型冠状病毒在伊拉克传播的回归与验证研究:以2020年前六个月为例
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/cjes.2021.4930
A. Khadom, A. K. Al-Jiboory, Mustafa S. Mahdi, Hameed B. Mahood
The dramatic spread of COVID-19 has put the entire world at risk. In this work, the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq has been studied. Due to the increase in the number of positive cases and deaths with this disease, huge pressure acts on the economy and world professionals worldwide. Therefore, building mathematical models to predict the growth of this serious disease is extremely useful. It helps to predict the future numbers of cases in Iraq. Therefore, dynamic neural networks and curve fitting techniques have been developed to construct such a model. Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) are used as a source for mathematical model construction. The period between 25, February to 18, June 2020 was used for regression, validation, and model construction of Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN). Nine samples (19 – 27 June 2020) were used for predicting the future infected and death cases. Descriptive statistical studies showed that the standard deviation varies sharply on June as compared with earlier months of 2020. Three mathematical models are proposed. Linear, polynomials (2nd, 3rd, and 4th orders), and exponential models are used to correlate confirmed infected cases (CIC) and confirmed death cases (CDC) that represent the dependent variables as function of time (independent variable). Nonlinear regression based on least-square method is used to estimate the coefficients of models.  Exponential models were the most significant with 0.9964 and 0.9974 correlation coefficients for CIC and CDC, respectively. Validation analysis showed a significant deviation between real and predicted cases using exponential models. However, DNN models showed better response than exponential models. This is evidenced by objective and subjective comparisons. Finally, the CIC and CDC may be increased with time to approach 50000 and 2000 respectively at the end of June 2020.
新冠肺炎的急剧传播使整个世界处于危险之中。在这项工作中,研究了新冠肺炎在伊拉克的传播。由于这种疾病的阳性病例和死亡人数的增加,全球经济和世界专业人员面临巨大压力。因此,建立数学模型来预测这种严重疾病的发展是非常有用的。它有助于预测伊拉克未来的病例数。因此,已经开发了动态神经网络和曲线拟合技术来构建这样的模型。来自世界卫生组织(世界卫生组织)的数据被用作数学模型构建的来源。2020年2月25日至6月18日期间用于动态神经网络(DNN)的回归、验证和模型构建。九个样本(2020年6月19日至27日)用于预测未来的感染和死亡病例。描述性统计研究表明,与2020年前几个月相比,6月份的标准差变化很大。提出了三个数学模型。线性、多项式(二阶、三阶和四阶)和指数模型用于关联确诊感染病例(CIC)和确诊死亡病例(CDC),这些模型将因变量表示为时间的函数(自变量)。采用基于最小二乘法的非线性回归方法来估计模型的系数。指数模型最显著,CIC和CDC的相关系数分别为0.9964和0.9974。验证分析显示,使用指数模型的真实病例和预测病例之间存在显著偏差。然而,DNN模型显示出比指数模型更好的响应。客观和主观的比较证明了这一点。最后,CIC和CDC可能会随着时间的推移而增加,到2020年6月底分别接近50000和2000。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of trace element contents and human health risk assessment via consumption of Liza aurata from the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, Iran 通过食用伊朗里海南部海岸的丽萨进行微量元素含量评估和人类健康风险评估
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4900
M. Norouzi
Knowledge of the effects of trace element accumulations in fish tissues on consumer health is of great importance. Concentration of trace elements (Hg, Pb, Cr, Cd, As, Fe, Zn, Mn, Co, Cu, Ni, Al, Sn, Ti, V) were determined in muscle of Liza aurata, wild fish caught from the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea in 2014 and 2015 in order to understand the accumulation pattern of trace elements in this fish and to assess the potential health risk posed by fish consumption. Following the standard instructions, the preparation and chemical digestion of the samples were performed using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). The highest and lowest accumulations in the muscle belonged to Fe and V (13.988 ± 3.4 and 0.0009 ± 0.00079 µg g-1 wet weight) respectively. The accumulations of these elements were lower than the permissible range proposed by the WHO for human consumption. Results showed that element accumulations were not affected by sex. Negative correlation coefficients were found between Pb, Cd, As, Zn, Al, Cu, Mn and V levels in the tissues and the fish weight and total length. Moreover, in this study, the value of the hazard index (HI) was calculated to be 0.065. Estimated daily intakes (EDIs) of the elements were in the range of 0.0045 to 7.5934 for adults, and 0.021 to 36.675 for children, while the target hazard quotients (THQ) was below 1.0 for each element. These results exhibit that the consumption of the investigated L. aurata from the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea does not cause significant adverse health effects. However, some considerations should be observed regarding the consumption of fish by infants and pregnant women.
了解鱼类组织中微量元素积累对消费者健康的影响非常重要。测定了2014年和2015年从里海南部海岸捕获的野生鱼类金丽鱼肌肉中微量元素(Hg、Pb、Cr、Cd、As、Fe、Zn、Mn、Co、Cu、Ni、Al、Sn、Ti、V)的浓度,以了解金丽鱼中微量元素的积累模式,并评估鱼类消费对健康的潜在风险。按照标准说明,使用原子吸收分光光度计(AAS)进行样品的制备和化学消化。肌肉中的最高和最低积累分别属于Fe和V(13.988±3.4和0.0009±0.00079µg g-1湿重)。这些元素的累积量低于世界卫生组织提出的人类消费的允许范围。结果表明,元素积累不受性别影响。组织中Pb、Cd、As、Zn、Al、Cu、Mn和V的含量与鱼的体重和总长度呈负相关。此外,在本研究中,危险指数(HI)的计算值为0.065。成人元素的估计日摄入量(EDIs)在0.0045至7.5934之间,儿童在0.021至36.675之间,而每种元素的目标危险系数(THQ)均低于1.0。这些结果表明,食用来自里海南部海岸的受调查金黄色葡萄不会对健康造成重大不利影响。然而,在婴儿和孕妇食用鱼类方面,应注意一些问题。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluating the environmental and therapeutic impacts of dietary supplement (Case study: The supplement Oyox for prevention of environment damages, treatment and disorders in the hepatobilliary system) 评估膳食补充剂对环境和治疗的影响(案例研究:补充剂Oyox用于预防环境损害、治疗肝胆系统疾病)
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4923
R. Roitman, W. Schatton, Evgeny Ilyich Maevsky
Globally recommended diets are a powerful method for raising the public's awareness of dietary choices. Although dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes, these diets make almost no reference to environmental impacts. Besides, Encephalic damage and disorders of the hepatobiliary system occur against the background of metabolic disorders. Metabolic processes largely depend on the activity and the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of sirtuin-type proteins. Protein deficiency can be filled by artificially introducing them into the body through dietary supplements. The study aimed to analyze the possibilities of using the dietary supplement OYOX to prevent environmental harm as well as treating encephalic damage and disorders of the hepatobiliary system. We used theoretical and practical research methods. In particular, the methods of analysis of literature sources, statistical data, results of clinical and preclinical studies were used. The method of generalization, analysis, systematization, classification of the obtained data was used. The results were evaluated 3 and 6 months after taking the dietary supplement. In the group of people taking OYOX, a statistically significant decrease was observed in the percentage of short telomeres (p = 0.029); a decrease in the percentage of senescent cytotoxic (CD8+ / CD28-) T cells (by 1.5%; 4.4%; 8.6% and 7.5% after 3 and 6 months respectively); improvement in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA, 1%) by 4.9% (p = 0.01), total cholesterol 5.7 mmol  L-1 (p = 0.003), low density lipoprotein (LCL-C): 3.82 mmol  L-1 (p = 0.0021), homocysteine: 3.4 mmol L-1  (p = 0.001). In conclusions, dietary supplement OYOX is effectively used to eliminate the deficiency of sirtuin-type proteins SIR1, SIR3, SIR6.
全球推荐饮食是提高公众对饮食选择意识的有力方法。尽管饮食选择会影响健康和环境,但这些饮食几乎没有提及环境影响。此外,脑损伤和肝胆系统紊乱是在代谢紊乱的背景下发生的。代谢过程在很大程度上取决于sirtuin型蛋白质的活性以及定性和定量特征。蛋白质缺乏可以通过膳食补充剂人工将其引入体内来填补。本研究旨在分析使用膳食补充剂OYOX预防环境危害以及治疗颅内损伤和肝胆系统疾病的可能性。我们采用了理论和实践相结合的研究方法。特别是,使用了文献来源、统计数据、临床和临床前研究结果的分析方法。对所获得的数据采用了归纳、分析、系统化、分类的方法。在服用膳食补充剂3个月和6个月后对结果进行评估。在服用OYOX的人群中,观察到短端粒的百分比在统计学上显著下降(p=0.029);衰老细胞毒性(CD8+/CD28-)T细胞的百分比降低(3个月和6个月后分别降低1.5%、4.4%、8.6%和7.5%);脂质和碳水化合物代谢改善糖化血红蛋白(HbA,1%)4.9%(p=0.01),总胆固醇5.7mmol L-1(p=0.003),低密度脂蛋白(LCL-C)3.82mmol L-1(p=0.0021),同型半胱氨酸3.4mmol L-1(p=0.001)。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological and hydrogeological state of oil and gas bearing areas of the Barents and Kara seas shelf 巴伦支海架和卡拉海架含油气区的生态和水文地质状况
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4954
S. Vlasenko, S. Sudarikov
The article deals with the ecological and hydrogeological conditions of the hydrogeological structures in the Barents-Kara shelf. Based on the hydrogeological and geoecological state of the Barents-Kara shelf, geoecological hazards were considered and distributed within the oil and gas regions of the West Siberian and East Barents oil and gas provinces. Preliminary geoecological zoning was performed and eco-geological zones were identified on the territory of first-order hydrogeological structures corresponding to the borders of several oil and gas-bearing regions of the East Barents and West Siberian oil and gas-bearing provinces. Thus, the current geoecological state of the Barents-Kara shelf was assessed. When drawing up the map of geoecological hazards, the hazards of technogenic origin caused by human economic activity and natural origin were taken into account, in particular, the influence of the neotectonic mode on the territory of the Barents-Kara shelf.
本文论述了巴伦支-卡拉陆架水文地质构造的生态和水文地质条件。根据巴伦支-卡拉陆架的水文地质和地质生态状况,考虑了地质生态灾害,并将其分布在西西伯利亚和东巴伦支油气省的油气区内。初步进行了地质生态区划,并在与东巴伦支和西西伯利亚含油气省几个含油气区边界相对应的一级水文地质结构区域上确定了生态地质带。因此,对巴伦支-卡拉大陆架目前的地质生态状况进行了评估。在绘制地质生态灾害图时,考虑了人类经济活动引起的技术成因灾害和自然成因灾害,特别是新构造模式对巴伦支-卡拉大陆架领土的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis of NDVI and CHIRPS-based SPI to assess drought impacts on crop yield in Basrah Governorate, Iraq NDVI和基于chirps的SPI在伊拉克巴士拉省干旱对作物产量影响评估中的比较分析
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4941
Raheem Attafi, A. D. Boloorani, Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi, F. Amiraslani
Drought is a climatological phenomenon that occurs across all climate zones of the world. It causes environmental and economic loss and can negatively affect agricultural profit, especially in dry and semi-arid areas. This study used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to model drought impacts on agricultural production. The role of meteorological and hydrological parameters was considered simultaneously. The results revealed that: (1) the increase of drought intensity leads to the reduction of crop production, while in the case of high-level drought, the production stays consistent; (2) NDVI could model the impacts of drought on crops production (R2 = 0.60 and RMSE = 0.42); (3) NDVI had a better ability for showing SPI fluctuations, but in higher drought intensities, it was less sensitive to SPI fluctuations; (4) the spatial pattern of drought in the study area showed that the northern parts of the Basrah Governorate have the highest sensitivity to drought; (5) the temporal pattern of long-term SPI showed a high level of risk for agricultural activities due to drought; and (6) air temperature and humidity are the main meteorological parameters of crops production affecting the interpretation of the impacts of drought on agriculture production in Basrah, Iraq
干旱是一种发生在世界所有气候带的气候现象。它造成环境和经济损失,并可能对农业利润产生负面影响,特别是在干旱和半干旱地区。本研究采用标准化降水指数(SPI)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)模拟干旱对农业生产的影响。同时考虑了气象和水文参数的作用。结果表明:(1)干旱强度增加导致作物产量下降,而在干旱程度较高的情况下,产量保持不变;(2) NDVI可以模拟干旱对作物生产的影响(R2 = 0.60, RMSE = 0.42);(3) NDVI对SPI波动的反映能力较好,但在干旱强度较大时,对SPI波动的敏感性较低;(4)研究区干旱空间格局显示,巴士拉省北部地区对干旱的敏感性最高;(5)长期SPI的时间格局显示干旱对农业活动具有较高的风险;气温和湿度是影响伊拉克巴士拉地区干旱对农业生产影响的主要气象参数
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引用次数: 1
Protective Function of Lipid Rafts 脂筏的保护作用
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4963
I. Kapustina, N. Ozolina, V. Gurina, E. Spiridonova, A. V. Tretyakova
The study of lipid rafts allowed us to take a new look at the morphology, organization and functioning of membranes, both of animal and plant origin. However, lipid rafts and their function in the cell membranes of plants are poorly understood in comparison with the membranes of animal cells. The protective function of the plant cell is of great importance for the body as a whole because plants lead an attached mode of life. To date, it is known that lipid rafts are involved in the membrane mechanisms of cell protection in response to negative effects. In this review, we summarized the literature data showing the participation of lipid rafts of plant membranes (plasmalemma, Golgi complex membranes, chloroplasts, mitochondria, and vacuoles) in the protective function of cells.
对脂筏的研究使我们能够对动物和植物来源的膜的形态、组织和功能有一个新的认识。然而,与动物细胞膜相比,人们对植物细胞膜中的脂筏及其功能知之甚少。植物细胞的保护功能对整个身体非常重要,因为植物有一种附加的生活模式。迄今为止,已知脂筏参与细胞保护的膜机制,以应对负面影响。在这篇综述中,我们总结了表明植物膜(质膜、高尔基复合体膜、叶绿体、线粒体和液泡)的脂筏参与细胞保护功能的文献数据。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of land use change on macroinvertebrate community composition in upper reaches of the Chehel-Chai chatchment, Iran 土地利用变化对伊朗Chehel-Chai河上游大型无脊椎动物群落组成的影响
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4938
M. Gholizadeh, Seied Ali Rezvani, M. Zibaei
Urbanization of catchment regions is a major cause of freshwater ecosystem degradation worldwide. As catchments become more developed and river ecosystems become increasingly engulfed in various land use activities, there is a growing need to understand these impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate are extensively used as indicators of ecosystem health and have been an instrument tool in ecosystem monitoring and management. Five stations with different types of land use (reference station, forest, recreational, agricultural, urban area) of Chehel Chai River, Iran were sampled in 2018. A total of 2040 macroinvertebrate belonging to 6 orders from 12 families were identified. The highest abundance was related to the diversity of the Ephemeroptera (Batidae). According to the results, the abundance of macroinvertebrate was significantly different in the seasons and sampling stations. The maximum value of diversity indices was measured to the Shannon index (S1= 1.06, autumn), Simpson's Index (S1= 0.63, autumn), Margalef richness (S1= 0.9, spring) and Pielou's index (S3= 0.92, summer). Stations in up-stream (forest area) recorded highest species richness, abundance and proportion of sensitive macroinvertebrates compared to the agricultural and urban development area. Cluster and nMDS analysis revealed that among the macroinvertebrates, Ephemeroptera were distinct in the forest sites and Diptera and Oligochaeta in urban area of Chehel Chai River. This finding suggests that present environment problem (such as: agriculture, tourism and urban area) caused serious impacts on the biodiversity of Chehel Chai River.
集水区城市化是全球淡水生态系统退化的主要原因。随着集水区越来越发达,河流生态系统越来越被各种土地利用活动所吞噬,越来越需要了解这些对淡水生态系统的影响。大型无脊椎动物被广泛用作生态系统健康指标,已成为生态系统监测和管理的重要工具。2018年对伊朗Chehel Chai河5个不同土地利用类型的站点(参考站点、森林站点、休闲站点、农业站点和城区站点)进行了采样。共发现大型无脊椎动物2040只,隶属于12科6目。丰度最高的是蜉蝣目的多样性。结果表明,大型无脊椎动物的丰度在季节和采样点之间存在显著差异。多样性指数的最大值分别为Shannon指数(S1= 1.06,秋季)、Simpson指数(S1= 0.63,秋季)、Margalef丰富度(S1= 0.9,春季)和Pielou指数(S3= 0.92,夏季)。与农业和城市发展区相比,上游(林区)站点的物种丰富度、丰度和敏感大型无脊椎动物比例最高。聚类分析和nMDS分析表明,柴柴河流域大型无脊椎动物中,森林遗址区以蜉蝣目为主,城区以双翅目和寡毛目为主。这一发现表明,目前的环境问题(如:农业、旅游和城市地区)对切赫柴河的生物多样性造成了严重影响。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal dynamics and quantity distribution of zoobenthos in the north-west part of the South Caspian Sea 南里海西北部底栖动物的季节动态和数量分布
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4728
G. Mirzoev
The article is devoted to the study of seasonal dynamics and quantity of the zoobenthos distribution in the north-west part of the South Caspian Sea. During the research covering the period from 2009 until 2010, 59 macrobenthos organisms belonging to the ten systemic groups were identified. Maximum quantity of species was identified in spring and summer (31 - 59 species), while minimum in autumn (24 - 42 species). Maximum development of organisms was identified in summer (146.27 g m-2), while minimum in autumn (77.12 g m-2). The key role in the benthos biomass formation belonged to shellfish, comprising 67.7 to 69.1% of total benthos biomass
本文对南里海西北部底栖动物的季节动态和数量分布进行了研究。2009 - 2010年共鉴定出10个系统类群59种大型底栖动物。其中,春夏季种类最多(31 ~ 59种),秋季最少(24 ~ 42种)。夏季发育最多(146.27 g m-2),秋季发育最少(77.12 g m-2)。贝类在底栖动物生物量的形成中起着关键作用,占底栖动物总生物量的67.7 ~ 69.1%
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引用次数: 0
Correlation between international and national law rules in the Russian Federation concerning to environmental protection of the Caspian Sea 俄罗斯联邦关于里海环境保护的国际法和国内法规则之间的相互关系
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4752
Аraz Mursaliev, Ogtay Ogli
The adoption of the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea is of great importance for the protection of the Caspian environment, as it establishes a clear legal status of the Caspian Sea. At the same time, the provisions of the Convention of 2018 and the Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea of 2003 (Tehran Convention) require further addition, primarily in the form of additional protocols to the Tehran Convention. In addition, the development of international legal norms should facilitate the harmonization of applicable national legislation in the Caspian States. To study the relationship between international legal norms on environmental protection of the Caspian Sea and Russian national legislation and the possibility of supplementing the international legal regime with domestic norms. Methods: methods of analysis and synthesis, empirical methods of comparison, description, interpretation; legal-dogmatic and method of interpretation of legal norms. Results: The author shows that while the provisions of the Tehran Convention, its protocols and the applicable legal acts of the Russian Federation generally comply, the national legislation establishes more detailed approaches to environmental protection of the Caspian region in certain aspects. In conclusion, the legislation of the Russian Federation may help to fill a number of gaps in regional international legal regulation of the Caspian environmental protection. In particular, it is relevant in terms of legal protection from oil spill damage, as well as in the area of river runoff regulation (within the context of the basin approach to the management of the Caspian Sea resources).
2018年《里海法律地位公约》的通过对保护里海环境具有重要意义,因为它确立了里海的明确法律地位。与此同时,2018年《公约》和2003年《保护里海海洋环境框架公约》(《德黑兰公约》)的规定需要进一步补充,主要是以《德黑兰公约》的附加议定书的形式。此外,国际法律规范的制定应促进里海各国适用的国家立法的协调。研究关于里海环境保护的国际法律规范与俄罗斯国家立法之间的关系,以及用国内规范补充国际法律制度的可能性。方法:分析综合法、实证比较法、描述法、解释法;法律教条主义与解释法律规范的方法。结果:发件人指出,虽然《德黑兰公约》及其议定书的规定和俄罗斯联邦适用的法律行为大体上是符合的,但国家立法在某些方面为里海地区的环境保护规定了更详细的办法。最后,俄罗斯联邦的立法可能有助于填补里海环境保护区域国际法律条例中的一些空白。特别是,在防止溢油损害的法律保护方面,以及在河流径流管理领域(在里海资源管理的盆地办法范围内),它是相关的。
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引用次数: 1
Scale deformities in three species of the genus Garra (Actinopterygii: Cyprinidae) Garra属三种鱼类的鳞片畸形(放线菌目:鲤鱼科)
Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.22124/CJES.2021.4734
H. Zareian, H. Esmaeili, A. Gholamhosseini
Different types of scale deformities have been reported from fishes worldwide, however there is no available study on the abnormal scales in the genus Garra except for G. variabilis. In the present study, scale deformities of three species of Garra including G. rufa, G. persica and Garra sp. from 6 sites of the Iranian drainages were examined and described. Different deformations were observed in focus, anterior, posterior and lateral sides of scales in the studied species, showing both slight and severe abnormalities. The occurrence of twin scales was one of the most interesting cases among various types of scale deformities observed on G. persica and Garra sp. Genetic disorders, diseases (including infection and lesions), developmental anomalies, incomplete regeneration after wounding, physical, and chemical environmental variables including pollutions might be considered as potential factors for scale abnormalities remained to be investigated.
世界各地的鱼类都有不同类型的鳞片畸形的报道,但除了栓皮鱼(G.variabilis)外,没有关于盖拉属鳞片异常的研究。在本研究中,对来自伊朗6个流域的三种Garra,包括G.rufa、G.persica和Garra sp.的鳞片畸形进行了检查和描述。在研究物种的鳞片的焦点、前侧、后侧和外侧观察到不同的变形,表现出轻微和严重的异常。双鳞片的发生是在G.persica和Garra sp.上观察到的各种鳞片畸形中最有趣的病例之一。遗传障碍、疾病(包括感染和病变)、发育异常、创伤后再生不完全、身体,包括污染在内的化学环境变量可能被认为是规模异常的潜在因素,仍有待研究。
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引用次数: 0
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caspian journal of environmental sciences
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