Cold Regions Science and Technology最新文献_第9页

Quantifying the influence of avalanche release volume on runout probability: A case study of a mountain road section 雪崩释放量对跳动概率影响的量化：以某山地公路路段为例

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104734

Stefan Oberndorfer , Jan-Thomas Fischer , Sven Fuchs

Mountain roads are frequently exposed to snow avalanches, making effective hazard and risk management strategies necessary. Historically, snow avalanche hazard assessments have been based on deterministic hazard analyses, which rely on discrete input data. In practice, the results are usually presented as hazard maps that focus on calculating the run-out length or area, including the spatial distribution of intensity, for predefined scenarios, but neglect inherent uncertainty. To examine the potential of probabilistic avalanche hazard assessment, we present and exemplify an approach that specifically considers uncertainties associated with avalanche release and apply it to a road segment in the Austrian Alps. We demonstrate that potential sources of uncertainty within the initial conditions of computational avalanche simulations result in a bias in release volume. Using probabilistic, thickness integrated avalanche simulations in three-dimensional terrain, we illustrate probability maps for showing the potential impact of avalanches on the road. This demonstrates the potential variability in the simulation results, such as peak pressure. Therefore, the developed framework allows the quantification of uncertainties inherent in snow avalanche simulations and increases the density of information for hazard assessment, particularly with regard to potential biases in runout length, width and affected area. The results showed considerable variation in both spatial coverage and linear spreading across different return periods and intensity limits, with values ranging from 0.2 ha to 2.7 ha and from 26 m to 167 m, respectively. Consequently, the limitations of the deterministic hazard assessment for traffic lines were revealed and the underlying uncertainties quantified, thereby demonstrating the value of a probability-based hazard analysis. The research outcomes demonstrate the effectiveness of a probabilistic approach for snow avalanche hazard assessment, which could assist road authorities to make informed decisions about avalanche mitigation and adaptation.

山路经常遭遇雪崩，因此必须采取有效的灾害和风险管理策略。历史上，雪崩危害评估一直基于确定性危害分析，依赖于离散输入数据。在实践中，结果通常以危险图的形式呈现，其重点是计算预先确定的情景的运行长度或面积，包括强度的空间分布，但忽略了固有的不确定性。为了检验概率雪崩危险评估的潜力，我们提出并举例说明了一种方法，该方法特别考虑了与雪崩释放相关的不确定性，并将其应用于奥地利阿尔卑斯山的一段道路。我们证明，在计算雪崩模拟的初始条件下，潜在的不确定性来源会导致释放量的偏差。利用三维地形的概率、厚度综合雪崩模拟，我们绘制了显示雪崩对道路潜在影响的概率图。这证明了模拟结果中的潜在可变性，例如峰值压力。因此，开发的框架可以量化雪崩模拟中固有的不确定性，并增加危害评估的信息密度，特别是关于跳动长度、宽度和受影响地区的潜在偏差。结果表明，在不同的回归期和强度范围内，空间覆盖度和线性分布存在较大差异，分别为0.2 ha ~ 2.7 ha和26 m ~ 167 m。因此，揭示了交通线路确定性危害评估的局限性，并对潜在的不确定性进行了量化，从而证明了基于概率的危害分析的价值。研究结果证明了概率方法对雪崩危害评估的有效性，可以帮助道路管理部门做出关于雪崩缓解和适应的明智决策。

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引用次数: 0

Development and application of a new simple algorithm for stochastic modeling of daily ground snow loads: A case study in Northeastern China 日地面雪荷载随机模拟新算法的开发与应用——以东北地区为例

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104721

Huamei Mo , Yuanyuan Li , H.P. Hong , Guolong Zhang , Qingwen Zhang , Feng Fan

The simulation or modeling of daily ground snow loads is a fundamental prerequisite for assessing the reliability of building structures subjected to the combined effects of snow and other loads. Taking northeastern China as an example, a novel and streamlined algorithm is introduced in this study to simulate daily ground snow loads, where the concept of daily snow declination rate was introduced, making the algorithm more logically explicit and more in line with reality when compared to existing models. The proposed algorithm models the arrival of snow events as a Poisson process, and five variables are involved in simulating the daily ground snow loads (represented by snow water equivalent, SWE), including the length of the snow period, T (days), the starting day, SD (dimensionless), the snow event arrival rate, v (dimensionless), the snow intensity, A (mm), and the daily snow declination rate, d (mm/day). Probabilistic models of the variables are determined from historical records of ground snow loads, and random samples of these variables are accordingly generated in the simulation. The implementation of this algorithm in the snowy region of northeastern China demonstrated its effectiveness. It's found that the simulated daily ground snow loads not only successfully replicate various patterns of snow accumulation but also align with the 50-year return period values of ground snow load. This validation underscores the algorithm's capability in simulating daily ground snow loads, thereby facilitating the investigation of the combined effects of snow load and other loading conditions.

日常地面雪荷载的模拟或建模是评估建筑结构在雪和其他荷载联合作用下的可靠性的基本前提。该算法将积雪事件的到达建模为泊松过程，模拟日地面雪荷载（用雪水当量SWE表示）涉及5个变量，包括雪期长度T（天）、起始日SD（无因次）、降雪事件到达率v（无因次）、雪强度a （mm）和日雪纬率d （mm/天）。根据地面雪荷载的历史记录确定变量的概率模型，并在模拟中生成这些变量的随机样本。该算法在东北多雪地区的应用验证了其有效性。结果表明，模拟的日地面雪荷载不仅成功地复制了积雪的各种累积模式，而且与地面雪荷载的50年回归周期值一致。这一验证强调了该算法在模拟日常地面雪荷载方面的能力，从而便于研究雪荷载和其他荷载条件的综合影响。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Shear failure behavior of the interface between asphalt mixture and ice layer by electromagnetic induction heating” [Cold Regions Science and Technology, 240 (2025) 104627] “电磁感应加热下沥青混合料与冰层界面剪切破坏行为”的勘误[j] .寒区科技，240(2025)104627。

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104720

Lulu Fan , Wenwei Huang , Hao Chen , Gang Liu , Jinjun Liu , Yangshi Liang , Federico Ignacio Ortiz de Zarate , Inge Hoff

引用次数: 0

Constraints of the enhanced snow melt in the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the 2021/22 melt season from Sentinel-1 data and in-situ observations 基于Sentinel-1数据和现场观测的南极半岛北部2021/22年融雪季融雪增强的制约因素

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104722

Kateřina Fárová , Kamil Láska , Zbyněk Engel

A time series of 32 Sentinel-1 images were used to establish the constraints of the surface melt on the Trinity Peninsula and James Ross Island from October 2021 to April 2022. The consistency of the decrease in the backscatter coefficient (σ⁰) with the rise in air temperature above 0 °C was validated through in-situ measured meteorological data. The correlation coefficient between the air temperature characteristics and σ⁰ was highest in the accumulation area of the glaciers on James Ross Island. A decrease of σ⁰ by −4 dB, compared to the winter mean value, was chosen as the threshold for the melt constraint. The number of melt days, derived from the Sentinel-1 data, was in better agreement with the same characteristics retrieved from the six-day mean air temperature, than that from the sum of positive degree days. The method proved to be useful when applied to the percolation zone, but unsuitable for the termination zone of glaciers with bare ice and for the dry snow zone. The snow-melt indices were subject to detailed analysis along selected transects across the Trinity Peninsula and James Ross Island in terms of both elevation and local/regional differences. The maximum number of melt days ranged from 150 to 180 days on the west coast of the Trinity Peninsula to 90–120 days on the southeastern part of James Ross Island. The earliest occurrence and longest duration of snow melt was observed on the northwestern coast of the Trinity Peninsula. On the east coast of the Peninsula, in the area from 200 to 600 m a.s.l., the melt duration was approximately 100 days. During a significant temperature anomaly in early February 2022, the snow melt extended to the summit of Mt. Haddington. At the same time, surface snow melting advanced to an elevation of 1600 m a.s.l. on the Trinity Peninsula. Apart from this extreme event, melting at altitudes above 1000–1200 m a.s.l. was rarely observed.

利用Sentinel-1卫星的32张时间序列图像，建立了2021年10月至2022年4月期间三一半岛和詹姆斯罗斯岛表面融化的约束条件。通过实测气象资料验证了后向散射系数（σ0）随0℃以上气温升高而减小的一致性。气温特征与σ0的相关系数在詹姆斯罗斯岛冰川堆积区最高。与冬季平均值相比，σ0下降- 4 dB作为熔体约束的阈值。从Sentinel-1数据中得到的融化日数与从6天平均气温中得到的相同特征比从正度日数中得到的特征更符合。结果表明，该方法适用于渗流带，但不适用于裸冰冰川终止带和干雪带。在选定的三位一体半岛和詹姆斯罗斯岛的样带上，对融雪指数进行了详细的分析，包括海拔和局部/区域差异。最大融化日数在三一半岛西海岸为150 - 180天，在詹姆斯罗斯岛东南部为90-120天。融雪发生最早、持续时间最长的地区是三一半岛西北海岸。在半岛东海岸，在海拔200至600米的区域，融化持续时间约为100天。在2022年2月初的一次明显的温度异常中，融雪延伸到了哈丁顿山的山顶。与此同时，在三一半岛，地表融雪推进到海拔1600米。除了这一极端事件外，在海拔1000-1200米以上的高度很少观察到融化。

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引用次数: 0

Enhanced mercury removal from contaminated soils in cold regions via KI leaching and freeze-thaw cycle KI浸出和冻融循环对寒冷地区污染土壤中汞的去除效果

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104719

Shuna Feng , Junru Chen , Nasrin Azad , Vilim Filipović , Jialong Lv , Hailong He

Mercury (Hg) contamination in seasonally frozen soils presents significant environmental and health risks, with effective remediation remaining challenging. The study explores a novel remediation approach combining potassium iodide (KI) leaching with freeze-thaw cycle to enhance Hg removal. Laboratory aging and batch experiments were used to elucidate factors controlling Hg adsorption, desorption, and mobility. Soil column experiments evaluated four strategies: (i) water leaching, (ii) KI leaching, (iii) KI saturation and water leaching, and (iv) KI saturation, freeze-thaw cycle and water leaching. Results showed that Hg adsorption was controlled by soil organic matter and clay content, while KI-induced Hg release involved complex desorption via heterogeneous diffusion. Water leaching showed negligible Hg removal (0.59 %), while KI leaching removed 78.96 % Hg and increased residual mobile Hg fractions and soil toxicity. Optimized methods (iii: 73.31 %; iv: 76.37 %) enhanced Hg removal while reducing toxicity and saving 90 % KI dosage. Crucially, the freeze-thaw-enhanced method soil exhibited significantly lower Hg mobility, reducing mobile and semi-mobile fractions by 21.00 % and 8.21 %, respectively, compared to non-freeze-thaw treatment. This enhancement stems from frozen front-driven Hg migration, where freeze-thaw cycle disrupts soil structures, releasing bounded Hg and enhancing hydraulic conductivity for effective contaminant removal. Moreover, this approach eliminates the need for engineered well and pump systems required by regular chemical washing/leaching methods. Integrating KI leaching with freeze-thaw cycle offers a promising, cost-effective, and less toxic strategy for Hg remediation in seasonally frozen regions. These findings advance nature-based remediation solutions and contribute to the development of theoretical models for pollutant transport under dynamic environmental conditions.

季节性冻土中的汞污染带来了重大的环境和健康风险，有效的补救措施仍然具有挑战性。本研究探索了一种碘化钾浸出与冻融循环相结合的新型修复方法，以提高汞的去除效果。通过室内老化和批量实验，阐明了控制汞吸附、解吸和迁移的因素。土柱试验评估了四种策略：(i)水浸出，（ii） KI浸出，（iii） KI饱和和水浸出，以及（iv） KI饱和、冻融循环和水浸出。结果表明，汞的吸附受土壤有机质和粘土含量的控制，而ki诱导的汞释放则通过非均相扩散进行复杂的解吸。水浸对汞的去除率可忽略不计（0.59%），而KI浸对汞的去除率为78.96%，并增加了残余流动汞组分和土壤毒性。优化后的方法（iii: 73.31%; iv: 76.37%）在降低毒性的同时提高了汞的去除率，并节省了90%的KI用量。重要的是，冻融强化土壤的汞迁移率显著降低，与非冻融处理相比，土壤的流动和半流动组分分别降低了21.00%和8.21%。这种增强源于冻结前沿驱动的汞迁移，其中冻融循环破坏了土壤结构，释放有界汞并增强了有效去除污染物的水力导电性。此外，该方法消除了常规化学洗涤/浸出方法所需要的工程井和泵系统。将KI浸出与冻融循环相结合，为季节性冻结地区的汞修复提供了一种有前景、经济有效且毒性较小的策略。这些发现促进了基于自然的修复解决方案，并有助于发展动态环境条件下污染物迁移的理论模型。

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引用次数: 0

Experimental investigation of wave-forced heat convection across water-permafrost boundaries 水-冻土边界波浪热对流的实验研究

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104718

Olorunfemi Omonigbehin , Hatim Ben Said , Jacob Stolle , Pierre Francus , Barret L. Kurylyk , Julia A. Guimond , David Didier , Stéphanie Coulombe , Nils Goseberg

Arctic permafrost coastlines are retreating faster as climate warming intensifies. Accurate modelling of the thermomechanical process is hindered by a lack of direct measurement of heat flux or heat transfer coefficients (

h_{w}

) at the water-permafrost interface. This study presents the first, direct laboratory measurements of wave-induced convective heat transfer coefficients. In twelve wave-flume experiments, artificial permafrost samples were exposed to air, still water, and irregular waves (0.02–0.04 m height; 0.8–1.2 s period). Embedded resistance temperature detectors tracked temperature changes at high spatial and temporal resolution, allowing for precise heat flux and heat transfer coefficient calculations. Under wave action, thaw-front advanced rapidly into the permafrost blocks at about 160–350 mmh⁻¹ compared to 3.24 mmh⁻¹ in air and 50.14 mmh⁻¹ in still water. Similarly, heat transfer coefficient ranged from 459 to 1210 Wm⁻² K⁻¹ in wave tests, significantly exceeding those for still water (∼165 Wm⁻² K⁻¹) and air exposure (∼4.4 Wm⁻² K⁻¹) tests. Heat flux correlated most strongly with wave height; higher ice content slowed thawing but did not evidently affect

h_{w}

magnitude. A novel empirical model was developed that pioneers the linking of

h_{w}

to surf similarity and dimensionless wave height and period. With strong predictive performance (R² = 0.89, RMSE = 81.1 Wm⁻² K⁻¹), the model provides a practical, experimentally validated tool for specifying

h_{w}

in coastal permafrost erosion models, eliminating the reliance on parameter tuning required by previous analytical approaches. Overall, this study demonstrates the critical role of waves in heat delivery to permafrost coastlines.

随着气候变暖的加剧，北极永久冻土海岸线正在加速退缩。由于缺乏对水-永久冻土界面的热流密度或传热系数（hw）的直接测量，妨碍了对热力过程的精确建模。本研究首次在实验室直接测量了波致对流换热系数。在12个波浪水槽实验中，人工冻土样品暴露于空气、静水和不规则波浪（高度0.02-0.04 m, 0.8-1.2 s周期）中。嵌入式电阻温度检测器以高空间和时间分辨率跟踪温度变化，允许精确的热流密度和传热系数计算。在波浪作用下，融锋以大约160-350 mmh−1的速度快速推进到永久冻土区，而在空气中为3.24 mmh−1，在静止水中为50.14 mmh−1。同样，波浪试验中的传热系数范围为459至1210 Wm−2 K−1，显著超过静水（~ 165 Wm−2 K−1）和空气暴露（~ 4.4 Wm−2 K−1）试验。热通量与波高相关性最强；较高的冰含量减缓了融化，但对融化程度没有明显影响。建立了一个新的经验模型，将冲浪相似度与无量纲浪高和周期联系起来。该模型具有较强的预测性能（R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 81.1 Wm−2 K−1），为确定沿海永久冻土侵蚀模型中的hw提供了一个实用的、经过实验验证的工具，消除了以往分析方法对参数调整的依赖。总的来说，这项研究证明了波浪在向永久冻土海岸线输送热量方面的关键作用。

{"title":"Experimental investigation of wave-forced heat convection across water-permafrost boundaries","authors":"Olorunfemi Omonigbehin , Hatim Ben Said , Jacob Stolle , Pierre Francus , Barret L. Kurylyk , Julia A. Guimond , David Didier , Stéphanie Coulombe , Nils Goseberg","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic permafrost coastlines are retreating faster as climate warming intensifies. Accurate modelling of the thermomechanical process is hindered by a lack of direct measurement of heat flux or heat transfer coefficients (<span><math><msub><mi>h</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span>) at the water-permafrost interface. This study presents the first, direct laboratory measurements of wave-induced convective heat transfer coefficients. In twelve wave-flume experiments, artificial permafrost samples were exposed to air, still water, and irregular waves (0.02–0.04 m height; 0.8–1.2 s period). Embedded resistance temperature detectors tracked temperature changes at high spatial and temporal resolution, allowing for precise heat flux and heat transfer coefficient calculations. Under wave action, thaw-front advanced rapidly into the permafrost blocks at about 160–350 mmh<sup>−1</sup> compared to 3.24 mmh<sup>−1</sup> in air and 50.14 mmh<sup>−1</sup> in still water. Similarly, heat transfer coefficient ranged from 459 to 1210 Wm<sup>−2</sup> K<sup>−1</sup> in wave tests, significantly exceeding those for still water (∼165 Wm<sup>−2</sup> K<sup>−1</sup>) and air exposure (∼4.4 Wm<sup>−2</sup> K<sup>−1</sup>) tests. Heat flux correlated most strongly with wave height; higher ice content slowed thawing but did not evidently affect <span><math><msub><mi>h</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span> magnitude. A novel empirical model was developed that pioneers the linking of <span><math><msub><mi>h</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span> to surf similarity and dimensionless wave height and period. With strong predictive performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89, RMSE = 81.1 Wm<sup>−2</sup> K<sup>−1</sup>), the model provides a practical, experimentally validated tool for specifying <span><math><msub><mi>h</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span> in coastal permafrost erosion models, eliminating the reliance on parameter tuning required by previous analytical approaches. Overall, this study demonstrates the critical role of waves in heat delivery to permafrost coastlines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104718"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145323540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research on the mechanism of propylene glycol butyl ether in improving the performance of cementitious materials for bored piles in permafrost regions 丙二醇丁醚改善多年冻土区钻孔灌注桩胶凝材料性能的机理研究

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104717

Baihong Shang , Chong Wang , Xiyin Zhang , Mingyi Zhang , Wansheng Pei , Tengzhou Zhang , Yapeng Li , Huijun Tong

The bored pile is frequently used in permafrost regions due to its excellent bearing capacity and well-established construction technology. However, the average annual ground temperature in these regions remains negative, which has adverse effects on the concrete performances. Propylene glycol butyl ether (PGBE), a compound with a low freezing point, is commonly applied in foam insulation boards and coatings, yet its application in cement-based materials is limited. To enhance the property of cement-based materials cured under permafrost environments, this study investigates the effects of PGBE on mortar performances cured at −2.0 °C. The results indicate that adding a moderate content of PGBE increases the compressive strength of mortar at various ages (3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days), with 0.4% PGBE showing the most pronounced enhancement. This content of PGBE most effectively improves the hydration of cement, increasing the generation of hydration products and refining the microstructure and pore characteristics of the mortar. Consequently, the 28-day compressive strength increases by 17.85%, and the mortar exhibits optimal resistance to chloride ion penetration. This investigation provides a novel methodology for optimizing the performance of cement-based materials cured under permafrost environments.

钻孔灌注桩以其优良的承载力和成熟的施工技术，在多年冻土区得到了广泛的应用。然而，这些地区的年平均地温仍然是负的，这对混凝土的性能有不利影响。丙二醇丁基醚（PGBE）是一种冰点较低的化合物，常用于泡沫保温板和涂料中，但在水泥基材料中的应用有限。为了提高多年冻土环境下固化水泥基材料的性能，本研究探讨了PGBE对- 2.0℃固化砂浆性能的影响。结果表明：添加适量的PGBE可提高砂浆在3、7、14、21、28天龄期的抗压强度，其中0.4%的PGBE增强效果最为显著；该含量的PGBE最有效地改善了水泥的水化，增加了水化产物的生成，细化了砂浆的微观结构和孔隙特征。因此，砂浆的28天抗压强度提高了17.85%，并表现出最佳的抗氯离子渗透性能。该研究为优化水泥基材料在永久冻土环境下的固化性能提供了一种新的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Creating probability maps for avalanche hazardous areas reflecting snowpack uncertainty updates 创建雪崩危险区域的概率图，反映积雪不确定性的更新

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104716

Takahiro Tanabe , Sojiro Sunako , Kouichi Nishimura

Snow avalanches in snowy regions can become natural disasters when their flow paths intersect settlement areas or affect infrastructures. Hazard maps indicating avalanche runout areas can assist in decision-making to mitigate avalanche damage. Avalanche simulators can predict runout areas but require uncertain input variables, such as initial flow thickness and basal friction parameters. This study represents the uncertainty of input variables using probability distributions based on meteorological and snowpack measurements, and delineates hazardous regions with exceedance probabilities. By combining these distributions with a simulator, a probability map was created. The exceedance probabilities represent the likelihood of the simulator output (e.g., maximum flow thickness) exceeding a threshold value, and the probability map shows its spatial distribution. As probabilistic evaluations require a large number of numerical simulations, a polynomial emulator based on the polynomial chaos quadrature method was developed and validated for specific cases. We targeted a specific release area and assumed probability distributions based on data from an automated weather station near the release area. The probability maps, obtained using three different input probability distributions assumed for distinct cases, demonstrated that the input distributions influence both the probability values and runout zones. Sensitivity analyses identified influential input variables for each case. The simulated hazardous areas under appropriate input conditions correspond well to observed runout areas of a historical avalanche. Additionally, temporal variations in probability maps, which account for snow conditions, provide dynamic assessments of hazardous areas based on daily snowpack conditions.

雪区的雪崩，当其流道与居民点相交或影响基础设施时，就会成为自然灾害。指示雪崩爆发区域的危险地图可以帮助制定减轻雪崩损害的决策。雪崩模拟器可以预测跳动区域，但需要不确定的输入变量，如初始流动厚度和基础摩擦参数。本研究使用基于气象和积雪测量的概率分布来表示输入变量的不确定性，并描绘了具有超越概率的危险区域。通过将这些分布与模拟器相结合，创建了一个概率图。超出概率表示模拟器输出（例如，最大流厚度）超过阈值的可能性，概率图显示其空间分布。针对概率评估需要大量数值模拟的特点，基于多项式混沌正交法开发了多项式仿真器，并进行了实例验证。我们以特定的释放区域为目标，并根据释放区域附近自动气象站的数据假设概率分布。使用针对不同情况假设的三种不同输入概率分布获得的概率图表明，输入分布对概率值和跳动区都有影响。敏感性分析确定了每种情况的影响输入变量。在适当的输入条件下，模拟的危险区域与历史上观测到的雪崩跳动区很好地对应。此外，考虑雪况的概率图的时间变化，根据每日积雪情况提供危险区域的动态评估。

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引用次数: 0

Large strain thaw consolidation model for ice-rich fine-grained permafrost considering adsorptive and capillary unfrozen water and secondary compression 考虑吸附和毛细非冻水及二次压缩的富冰细粒冻土大应变融化固结模型

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104714

Ziyi Wang , Ming Xiao

This paper presents a second-order, implicit numerical model for one-dimensional, large strain thaw consolidation of ice-rich, fine-grained permafrost. The phase composition of permafrost at sub-freezing temperatures is determined using an unfrozen water content model that accounts for both capillary and adsorptive unfrozen water. The model incorporates secondary compression to improve the accuracy of long-term thaw consolidation simulations. The algorithm incorporates conduction, advection, and phase change in heat transfer and simultaneous occurrence of primary consolidation and secondary compression. Benchmarking and verification of the model show good agreement with existing numerical models. The proposed model is validated against experimental observations. The model indicates that adsorbed unfrozen water dominates over a wide range of sub-freezing temperatures, while capillary unfrozen water freezes at temperatures just below the freezing point. Numerical simulations suggest that ignoring secondary compression can lead to underestimation of excess pore pressure and settlement during both thaw and post-thaw consolidation. Void ratio and average degree of consolidation are overestimated when secondary compression is not considered. The effect of secondary compression on excess pore pressure and void ratio during thawing becomes more pronounced in thicker, field-scale permafrost layers. Results from this study highlight the importance of considering adsorptive and capillary unfrozen water to determine permafrost composition and incorporating secondary compression in thaw consolidation modeling and thaw settlement estimation for long-term civil infrastructure planning in cold regions. The proposed model provides a comprehensive framework for simulating thaw consolidation processes in permafrost regions.

本文提出了富冰细粒冻土一维大应变融化固结的二阶隐式数值模型。在亚冰点温度下，冻土的相组成是用考虑毛细和吸附的未冻水的未冻水含量模型来确定的。该模型加入了二次压缩，以提高长期融化固结模拟的准确性。该算法结合了传热中的传导、平流和相变以及同时发生的一次固结和二次压缩。对标和验证表明，该模型与现有数值模型吻合较好。根据实验结果验证了所提出的模型。该模型表明，在冰点以下的温度范围内，吸附的未冻水占主导地位，而毛细管未冻水在冰点以下的温度下冻结。数值模拟表明，忽略二次压缩会导致低估解冻和解冻后固结过程中的超孔隙压力和沉降。当不考虑二次压缩时，孔隙比和平均固结度被高估。在较厚的、野外尺度的多年冻土层中，二次压缩对融化过程中超孔隙压力和孔隙比的影响更为明显。这项研究的结果强调了考虑吸附水和毛细非冻结水来确定永久冻土组成的重要性，以及在寒冷地区的长期民用基础设施规划中，将二次压缩纳入融化固结模型和融化沉降估算的重要性。该模型为模拟多年冻土区的融化固结过程提供了一个全面的框架。

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引用次数: 0

A novel mechanical model for frost heave failure of concrete canal lining: Considering elastic boundaries 考虑弹性边界的混凝土渠道衬砌冻胀破坏力学模型

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104715

Pengfei He , Wenhai Zhang , Xiangbing Kong , Feng Yue , Ruige Shi , Fuping Zhang

Frost heave failure of concrete canal linings in cold regions poses a significant threat to the safe operation of water conveyance systems. This study proposes a novel mechanical model for frost heave failure based on dual-parameter elastic foundation beam theory, incorporating the non-uniform deformation behavior commonly observed in engineering practice. The interaction between foundation soil frost heave and the lining is represented by a system of springs, with the lining boundaries modeled as elastic supports. Model accuracy is validated through comparison with field measurements and prior studies. Results show that the elastic boundary more accurately captures the deformation behavior near the top and foot of the lining. Compared with elastic boundaries, simply supported conditions result in 28.05 % greater peak displacement, 29.75 % higher peak bending moment, and 49.13 % lower shear force at the top of the lining. When elastic boundaries are included, negative bending moments emerge near the lining ends. As the vertical spring stiffness increases, the peak frost heave displacement initially decreases and then rises, while the extent of the negative bending moment regime contracts. A similar non-monotonic trend is observed for peak bending moment with increasing torsional spring stiffness, accompanied by expansion of the negative moment regions at the top and foot. When the torsional stiffness becomes excessively large, the absolute value of the negative moment exceeds that of the positive moment at the boundary, leading to a shift in the critical failure location. Increasing the lining thickness from 6 cm to 14 cm results in a 48.12 % reduction in peak frost heave displacement, with the location of maximum displacement shifting 15 cm toward the center of the lining.

寒冷地区混凝土渠道衬砌冻胀破坏对输水系统的安全运行构成重大威胁。基于双参数弹性地基梁理论，结合工程实践中常见的非均匀变形特性，提出了一种新的冻胀破坏力学模型。地基土冻胀与衬砌的相互作用用弹簧系统来表示，衬砌边界用弹性支撑来模拟。通过与现场测量和前人研究的比较，验证了模型的准确性。结果表明，弹性边界更准确地反映了衬砌顶部和底部附近的变形行为。与弹性边界相比，简支条件下衬砌顶部峰值位移增大28.05%，峰值弯矩增大29.75%，剪力减小49.13%。当包含弹性边界时，衬砌两端附近出现负弯矩。随着竖向弹簧刚度的增大，峰值冻胀位移先减小后增大，负弯矩状态的范围减小。随着扭转弹簧刚度的增加，峰值弯矩也呈现出类似的非单调趋势，并伴随着顶部和底部负弯矩区域的扩大。当扭转刚度过大时，边界处的负弯矩绝对值超过正弯矩绝对值，导致临界破坏位置发生偏移。将衬砌厚度从6 cm增加到14 cm，冻胀位移峰值减小48.12%，最大位移位置向衬砌中心移动15 cm。

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引用次数: 0