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Pre-Construction predictions of the Loads from large Ice Ridges Interacting with the Confederation Bridge Piers 施工前对大型冰脊与联邦大桥桥墩相互作用荷载的预测
IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104263
G.W. Timco

During the design phase of the Confederation Bridge in Canada, the Canadian government Public Works and Government Services Canada asked the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada to provide information on ice loads from large ridges using a wide range of predictive technologies. The NRC put together a team that looked at loads from several sources including analytical models, physical model tests, finite element models, discrete particle models, and full-scale data. The ice loading scenario was an extreme first-year ridge loading one of the bridge piers. A large number of analytical models were used and the load components were separated into those from the consolidated layer, the sail, and the keel. An upper bound prediction from this approach gave a value of 16 MN on a pier, but the assumptions that were used to arrive at this value did not match observed behavior in the physical and numerical studies of the program. Physical model tests indicated that the loads could be 10.5 MN with a load of 7.3 MN from the keel and 3.2 MN from the consolidated layer and sail. A finite element analysis indicted a range of predicted values of 10 MN to 12 MN depending upon the assumptions used. A discrete particle analysis predicted load values from 2.2 MN to 9.5 MN depending upon the assumptions used in describing the stiffness of the ridge. A review of full-scale measurements on lighthouses and ships suggested that the loads could range from 7.3 MN to 10.4 MN. These predicted values compare to the highest load measured on the Confederation Bridge over a twenty-year span of just over 8 MN. This paper outlines the approaches used for this prediction study and their resulting predictions. It shows the value of using multiple approaches for load predictions for offshore structures in ice-covered waters.

在加拿大联邦大桥的设计阶段,加拿大政府加拿大公共工程和政府服务部要求加拿大国家研究委员会(NRC)利用各种预测技术提供有关大山脊冰荷载的信息。NRC 组建了一个团队,从多个方面研究荷载,包括分析模型、物理模型试验、有限元模型、离散颗粒模型和全尺寸数据。冰加载情景是第一年的极端山脊加载其中一个桥墩。使用了大量的分析模型,并将荷载成分分为来自固结层、帆和龙骨的荷载成分。这种方法的预测值上限为桥墩上的 16 兆牛顿,但得出该值的假设条件与该项目物理和数值研究中观察到的行为不符。物理模型试验表明,荷载可能为 10.5 兆牛顿,其中龙骨荷载为 7.3 兆牛顿,加固层和船帆荷载为 3.2 兆牛顿。有限元分析表明,根据所使用的假设,预测值范围在 10 兆牛顿至 12 兆牛顿之间。离散颗粒分析预测的荷载值为 2.2 MN 至 9.5 MN,具体取决于在描述脊的刚度时所使用的假设。对灯塔和船只的全尺寸测量结果表明,荷载可能在 7.3 MN 到 10.4 MN 之间。与这些预测值相比,在联邦大桥上二十年间测量到的最高荷载略高于 8 MN。本文概述了此次预测研究采用的方法及其预测结果。它显示了使用多种方法对冰覆盖水域的近海结构进行荷载预测的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental analysis of the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupling in freezing vertical shafts of unsaturated sandy soil 非饱和砂土冻结竖井中的热-水-机械(THM)耦合实验分析
IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104254
Guanren Chen , Dongwei Li , Junhao Chen , Hao Chen , Jindong Wang , Zhiwen Jia , Qiao Sun , Minghai Xia
The evolutionary mechanism of frozen soil involves complex dynamic coupling among temperature, moisture and the stress field. However, existing research has struggled to adequately describe the interplay between these factors. To address this, we independently designed and developed a multifunctional loading system appropriate for geotechnical engineering experimentation and a corresponding loading technology. Using a model of vertical shaft freezing, we studied the spatiotemporal evolution of thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) multi-field coupling. The research findings indicate that, compared to the freezing interface, the main section experiences not only more intense variations in the temperature field but also heightened activity in terms of in-situ freezing and moisture migration. Both the radial and circumferential characteristic faces exhibit wave-like variations in moisture gradient evolution. The circumferential face features a critical gradient at 3.8 m−1, whereas the moisture gradient curve of the radial face undergoes temporal elongation at the peak, resulting in no discernible extremities. Each characteristic position of the frost heave force growth undergoes three distinct phases: incubation, rapid increase and stabilisation. During the same phases, the response times for the growth of frost heave forces on the radial characteristic face are roughly equivalent. However, when moving outward along the equivalent freezing radius, the response time on the circumferential face becomes progressively delayed.
冻土的演变机制涉及温度、湿度和应力场之间复杂的动态耦合。然而,现有研究难以充分描述这些因素之间的相互作用。针对这一问题,我们自主设计并开发了适合岩土工程实验的多功能加载系统和相应的加载技术。利用竖井冻结模型,我们研究了热-水-机械(THM)多场耦合的时空演变。研究结果表明,与冻结界面相比,主截面不仅温度场变化更剧烈,而且原位冻结和水分迁移的活动也更频繁。径向和周向特征面在湿度梯度演变方面都表现出波浪式变化。周向特征面的临界梯度为 3.8 m-1,而径向特征面的湿度梯度曲线在峰值处经历了时间伸长,因此没有明显的极值。冻胀力增长的每个特征位置都经历了三个不同的阶段:潜伏期、快速增长期和稳定期。在同一阶段,径向特征面上的冻胀力增长响应时间大致相同。然而,当沿等效冰冻半径向外移动时,圆周面上的响应时间会逐渐延迟。
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引用次数: 0
Theoretical analysis of the mechanical response of a lined canal induced by soil frost heave behavior based on improved foundation beam models 基于改进的地基梁模型,对土壤冻胀行为诱发的衬砌运河力学响应进行理论分析
IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104252
Haoyuan Jiang , Mingyi Zhang , Zhengzhong Wang , Jiawei Gong , Xinjian Sun

Lined canals in cold regions often experience severe frost damage, posing a significant threat to the water supply safety. This paper proposes a modified analytical solution for the response of canal lining under soil frost heave, which is based on a Timoshenko beam on a Pasternak foundation considering tangential contact between the lining and frozen soil. This analytical solution can provide any solution using Timoshenko or Euler–Bernoulli beams on Pasternak or Winkler foundations with or without tangential contact. Then, the modified analytical solution, along with the traditional analytical solutions using Euler–Bernoulli beams on Winkle foundations, is compared against both model test and numerical simulation results. The modified analytical solution performs better than the traditional solution. Finally, the effects of foundation model, beam model, and tangential contact in simulating canal frost heave were discussed, and some measures to mitigate canal frost heave are proposed. The results show that solutions based on Winkler foundation overestimate frost heaves and tensile stresses of canal linings, and solutions without considering tangential contact only obtains overestimated frost heave. In addition, solutions based on Euler–Bernoulli beams underestimate frost heaves slightly and overestimate tensile stresses slightly. Therefore, the Pasternak foundation, Euler–Bernoulli beam, and tangential contact model can be used to simulate canal frost heave. The modified analytical solution directly uses field measurements of soil free frost heave to calculate canal frost heave, thereby enhancing result reliability. This analytical solution provides a simple method for canal frost heave design, and can be applied to frost heave analyses of flat and inclined structures.

寒冷地区有衬砌的运河经常会遭受严重的冻害,对供水安全构成重大威胁。本文提出了一种运河衬砌在土壤冻胀下响应的修正分析方案,该方案基于帕斯捷尔纳克地基上的季莫申科梁,考虑了衬砌与冻土之间的切向接触。无论是否存在切向接触,该分析解决方案都能提供在帕斯捷尔纳克地基或温克勒地基上使用季莫申科梁或欧拉-伯努利梁的任何解决方案。然后,将修改后的分析解决方案与温克尔地基上使用欧拉-伯努利梁的传统分析解决方案,与模型试验和数值模拟结果进行比较。修改后的分析方案比传统方案表现更好。最后,讨论了地基模型、梁模型和切向接触对模拟运河冻浪的影响,并提出了一些缓解运河冻浪的措施。结果表明,基于温克勒地基的方案高估了冻胀和运河衬砌的拉应力,而不考虑切向接触的方案仅高估了冻胀。此外,基于 Euler-Bernoulli 梁的解决方案略微低估了冻胀,略微高估了拉应力。因此,帕斯捷尔纳克地基、欧拉-伯努利梁和切向接触模型可用于模拟运河冻胀。修改后的分析方案直接使用土壤自由冻浪的实地测量结果来计算运河冻浪,从而提高了结果的可靠性。该分析方案为运河冻浪设计提供了一种简单的方法,并可应用于平面和倾斜结构的冻浪分析。
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引用次数: 0
Acoustic properties of hydrate-bearing sediments in permafrost from hydrate formation to shear processes 从水合物形成到剪切过程的永久冻土中含水合物沉积物的声学特性
IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104253
Linghui Huang, Chengshun Xu, Kamran Iqbal

Under depressurization, the hydrate reservoirs undergo complex mechanical behaviors such as consolidation or shear. To deeply understand the evolution in the mechanical properties of soil, triaxial equipment with an ultrasonic system was used to detect the shear wave velocity in hydrate-bearing sediments. The effects of hydrate saturation, water, and stress state on shear-wave velocity are studied. The experimental results show that: The hydrate saturation significantly affects the wave velocity in the hydrate formation stage, while the water content has little influence on it. During the consolidation period, the notable increase in shear wave velocity indicates a decrease in soil void ratio, which means the soil has significant settlement deformation. With continuous shearing, the soil elastic modulus is damaged, and finally, the maximum damage can reach 35%. The conclusions can deepen understanding of the physical and mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments in permafrost, and provide a reference for predicting the stratum stability during hydrate exploitation.

在减压情况下,水合物储层会发生固结或剪切等复杂的力学行为。为了深入了解土壤力学性质的演变,使用了带有超声波系统的三轴设备来检测含水泥土中的剪切波速度。研究了水合物饱和度、水和应力状态对剪切波速度的影响。实验结果表明在水合物形成阶段,水合物饱和度对波速的影响很大,而含水量对波速的影响很小。在固结期,剪切波速的显著增加表明土壤空隙率下降,这意味着土壤有明显的沉降变形。随着持续剪切,土壤弹性模量受到破坏,最后最大破坏可达 35%。这些结论可以加深对冻土带水合物沉积物物理力学性质的理解,并为预测水合物开采过程中的地层稳定性提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent prediction of unfrozen water content of artificially frozen clay along one-dimensional column based on LF-NMR 基于 LF-NMR 的一维柱状人工冻结粘土未冻结含水量的智能预测
IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104251
Jie Zhou , Huade Zhou , Chuanhe Wang , Wansheng Pei , Zongming Song

The unfrozen water content (UWC) plays a crucial role in frozen soil engineering, however, traditional unfrozen water measurement or calculation methods are time-consuming and costly, and it is difficult to express the non-linearity among the influencing factors. Currently, LF-NMR is widely recognized as an effective tool for measuring unfrozen water. In this study, a calibration curve that can describe the relationship between the NMR signal and water content was derived. Moreover, the effects of temperature, initial water content, and soil height on UWC are explored along one-dimensional large-diameter columns based on LF-NMR data. Combined with the ML algorithm and the UWC test data under different factors based on LF-NMR, an intelligent prediction method that can consider the nonlinear characteristics of multiple factors is proposed. The results showed that the NMR accuracy is 176.64 semaphore per 1% water content, the error between the water content calculated from the calibration curve and that obtained from the drying method is small (average error is 0.97%), and the linearity degree of the calibration curve is good (R2 = 0.999). Moreover, due to the strong correlation between unfrozen water and temperature, initial water content, and other factors, the results indicated that the GPR model can better describe this correlation and has the best prediction effect, which was evaluated with the quantitative indicators: R2 = 0.96, RMSE = 1.07, MAE = 1.00, and again verifies the superiority of this model in combination with other literature data. Overall, this paper offers a technical basis for controlling and preventing freezing and thawing disasters in cold regions and artificial freezing engineering projects.

解冻水含量(UWC)在冻土工程中起着至关重要的作用,然而,传统的解冻水测量或计算方法耗时长、成本高,而且难以表达各影响因素之间的非线性关系。目前,LF-NMR 被公认为测量未冻水的有效工具。在本研究中,得出了一条能描述核磁共振信号与含水量之间关系的校准曲线。此外,基于 LF-NMR 数据,沿一维大直径柱探讨了温度、初始含水量和土壤高度对 UWC 的影响。结合基于 LF-NMR 的 ML 算法和不同因素下的 UWC 试验数据,提出了一种可考虑多因素非线性特性的智能预测方法。结果表明,每 1%含水量的核磁共振准确度为 176.64 个信号,校准曲线计算的含水量与干燥法得到的含水量误差小(平均误差为 0.97%),校准曲线的线性度良好(R2 = 0.999)。此外,由于解冻水与温度、初始含水量等因素有较强的相关性,结果表明 GPR 模型能较好地描述这种相关性,预测效果最好,用定量指标进行评价:R2 = 0.96,RMSE = 1.07,MAE = 1.00,结合其他文献数据再次验证了该模型的优越性。总之,本文为控制和预防寒冷地区冻融灾害及人工冻结工程提供了技术依据。
{"title":"Intelligent prediction of unfrozen water content of artificially frozen clay along one-dimensional column based on LF-NMR","authors":"Jie Zhou ,&nbsp;Huade Zhou ,&nbsp;Chuanhe Wang ,&nbsp;Wansheng Pei ,&nbsp;Zongming Song","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The unfrozen water content (UWC) plays a crucial role in frozen soil engineering, however, traditional unfrozen water measurement or calculation methods are time-consuming and costly, and it is difficult to express the non-linearity among the influencing factors. Currently, LF-NMR is widely recognized as an effective tool for measuring unfrozen water. In this study, a calibration curve that can describe the relationship between the NMR signal and water content was derived. Moreover, the effects of temperature, initial water content, and soil height on UWC are explored along one-dimensional large-diameter columns based on LF-NMR data. Combined with the ML algorithm and the UWC test data under different factors based on LF-NMR, an intelligent prediction method that can consider the nonlinear characteristics of multiple factors is proposed. The results showed that the NMR accuracy is 176.64 semaphore per 1% water content, the error between the water content calculated from the calibration curve and that obtained from the drying method is small (average error is 0.97%), and the linearity degree of the calibration curve is good (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.999). Moreover, due to the strong correlation between unfrozen water and temperature, initial water content, and other factors, the results indicated that the GPR model can better describe this correlation and has the best prediction effect, which was evaluated with the quantitative indicators: R<sup>2</sup> = 0.96, RMSE = 1.07, MAE = 1.00, and again verifies the superiority of this model in combination with other literature data. Overall, this paper offers a technical basis for controlling and preventing freezing and thawing disasters in cold regions and artificial freezing engineering projects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104251"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141484501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of thermal stability and application of engineering solutions to preserve the degrading road embankment near Hudson Bay Coast, Canada 热稳定性评估和工程解决方案的应用,以保护加拿大哈德逊湾海岸附近正在退化的路堤
IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104230
Xiangbing Kong , Guy Doré

There are 14 northern communities in Nunavik, the Arctic region of Quebec province, Canada. Transportation infrastructure plays a vital role in the social and economic development of these localities. The thawing of permafrost compromises the stability of northern transportation infrastructure. Harsh Arctic climate conditions limit the installation of effective monitoring systems to assess infrastructure stability. In Akulivik, the access road connects the Akulivik airport and the village of Akulivik. There is no monitoring to observe the thermal condition of the permafrost foundation of the access road, hindering the capacity to perform preventive maintenance activities, especially in the context of observed climate warming in Nunavik. This paper describes a project aiming at the assessment of the stability of the access road using a new approach and proposes adaptation solutions to stabilize the road, based on design tools recently developed. Particular attention was paid to the foundation soil under the side slope where relatively rapid permafrost degradation was occurring due to accumulated snow. The results indicate a positive thermal gradient of 0.29 °C/m under the side slope and a near-zero thermal gradient under the centerline. Projected climate warming was also considered to further investigate the thermal condition, providing a safety margin for the design of promising adaptation solutions. These results assist government agencies in evaluating the thermal conditions of underlying permafrost and deploying potential adaptation solutions in Akulivik.

加拿大魁北克省北极地区的努纳维克有 14 个北部社区。交通基础设施在这些地区的社会和经济发展中发挥着至关重要的作用。永久冻土的融化损害了北部交通基础设施的稳定性。严酷的北极气候条件限制了安装有效的监测系统来评估基础设施的稳定性。在阿库利维克,通道连接阿库利维克机场和阿库利维克村。目前还没有监测系统来观察通路永久冻土地基的热状况,这阻碍了开展预防性维护活动的能力,尤其是在努纳维克气候变暖的情况下。本文介绍了一个旨在使用新方法评估通路稳定性的项目,并根据最近开发的设计工具提出了稳定道路的适应性解决方案。本文特别关注了边坡下的地基土壤,由于积雪的影响,这里的冻土层退化相对较快。结果表明,边坡下的热梯度为 0.29 °C/m,中线下的热梯度几乎为零。为了进一步研究热状况,还考虑了气候变暖的预测,为设计有前景的适应解决方案提供了安全系数。这些结果有助于政府机构评估地下永久冻土的热状况,并在阿库里维克部署潜在的适应解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Multiscale mechanical analysis of Frozen Clay: Triaxial testing and discrete element modeling 冻土的多尺度力学分析:三轴测试和离散元素建模
IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104250
Yihui Yan , Dan Chang , Jiankun Liu , Anhua Xu , Lizhen Feng

The macroscopic and microscopic mechanical characteristics of subgrade soil in cold regions play an important role in the stability of embankment engineering in cold regions. In this study, we conduct triaxial tests and isotropic loading-unloading tests on frozen clay in the cold region subgrade. The tests are conducted under different temperatures and confining pressures to obtain its macroscopic strength and deformation characteristics. Meanwhile, we establish a discrete element model of frozen clay based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to simulate conventional triaxial and isotropic loading-unloading tests, and analyze its mechanical characteristics from a microscopic perspective. The results of the study indicate that the strength and deformation of frozen clay are greatly affected by the cooling temperature and confining pressure. As the cooling temperature decreases, the cohesion of the specimen significantly increases, and the internal friction angle slightly increases, along with the elastic moduli. Under low confining pressure, the specimen exhibits significant volumetric expansion, while under high confining pressure, the specimen mainly undergoes volumetric contraction. Through discrete element numerical simulation, we obtain the microscopic mechanical characteristics of frozen clay, explain the “bulging” phenomenon of the specimen from a microscopic perspective, and verify the applicability of the flexible membrane. Meanwhile, the influence rules of various microscopic parameters on the mechanical properties of frozen clay are also obtained through a series of parameter calibration works.

寒冷地区路基土的宏观和微观力学特性对寒冷地区路堤工程的稳定性起着重要作用。本研究对寒区路基冻土进行了三轴试验和各向同性加载-卸载试验。试验在不同温度和约束压力下进行,以获得其宏观强度和变形特性。同时,基于离散元法(DEM)建立冻土离散元模型,模拟常规三轴和各向同性加载-卸载试验,从微观角度分析其力学特性。研究结果表明,冻土的强度和变形受冷却温度和约束压力的影响很大。随着冷却温度的降低,试样的内聚力显著增加,内摩擦角略有增大,弹性模量也随之增大。在低约束压力下,试样表现出明显的体积膨胀,而在高约束压力下,试样主要发生体积收缩。通过离散元数值模拟,我们获得了冻土的微观力学特性,从微观角度解释了试样的 "鼓胀 "现象,验证了柔性膜的适用性。同时,通过一系列的参数标定工作,还得到了各种微观参数对冻土力学性能的影响规律。
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引用次数: 0
Flight tests results of a Fiber Bragg Gratings based ice sensor 基于布拉格光栅的冰传感器的飞行测试结果
IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104248
M. Gonzalez del Val , M. Frövel

Icing has been an aeronautical industry problem for safety and for energy consumption save from the beginning of aviation. It affects the safety reducing the lift, decreasing the stall angle of attack, affecting the aircraft stability and reducing the control efficiency. The European project SENS4ICE (2019–2023) introduces a new technology based on hybridization of different detection techniques, combining indirect ice sensing with direct, using atmospheric and ice accretion sensors. In the present work a study about a Fiber Optic Detector based on latent heat that uses a Fiber Bragg Grating for measuring the surface temperature. The Fiber Optic Detector (FOD) was tested in a SAFIRE Flight Testing Platform ATR42 during 40 h of Flight testing, having Liquid Water encounters in all flights. The sensor performance and its ability for measuring the icing severity is evaluated in the paper, showing results in a representative Flight test.

During Flight Test, different icing conditions were seen, adapting the detection and severity evaluations to the data seen with other reference atmospheric sensors. For ice detection Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) was used using different levels in order to detect all the possible events during the Flight test. The DWT ice severity assessment results were compared with a Messinger Model and with the DLR Nevzorov data in order to evaluate the precision and the sensor performance.

自航空业诞生以来,结冰一直是航空业在安全和节能方面的一个难题。结冰会降低升力、减小失速攻角、影响飞机稳定性并降低控制效率,从而影响飞行安全。欧洲 SENS4ICE 项目(2019-2023 年)引入了一种基于不同检测技术混合的新技术,将间接冰感应与直接冰感应相结合,使用大气和冰吸积传感器。在本研究中,我们将对基于潜热的光纤探测器进行研究,该探测器使用光纤布拉格光栅测量表面温度。光纤探测器(FOD)在 SAFIRE 飞行测试平台 ATR42 上进行了 40 小时的飞行测试,在所有飞行中都遇到了液态水。本文对传感器的性能及其测量结冰严重程度的能力进行了评估,并展示了一次代表性飞行测试的结果。在飞行测试过程中,出现了不同的结冰情况,根据其他参考大气传感器的数据对检测和严重程度进行了评估。为了检测结冰,使用了不同级别的离散小波变换 (DWT),以检测飞行测试期间所有可能发生的事件。DWT 冰严重程度评估结果与梅辛格模型和德国航天中心 Nevzorov 数据进行了比较,以评估精度和传感器性能。
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引用次数: 0
A metaheuristic-optimization-based neural network for icing prediction on transmission lines 基于元搜索优化的输电线路结冰预测神经网络
IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104249
Reda Snaiki , Abdeslam Jamali , Ahmed Rahem , Mehdi Shabani , Brian L. Barjenbruch

Ice accretion on overhead transmission line systems is a leading cause of power outages and can lead to substantial economic losses in northern regions. Therefore, accurately and rapidly predicting ice accretion on power lines is crucial for ensuring the safe operation of the power grid. This study introduces a machine learning method for predicting the ice-to-liquid ratio (ILR), an important parameter for assessing ice accretion efficiency. While estimating ILR is vital for operational forecasting, many existing ice accretion models do not include this capability. A feedforward neural network (FFNN) trained with stochastic gradient descent and various metaheuristic optimizers - specifically particle swarm optimization, grey wolf optimizer, whale optimizer, and slime mold optimizer - is employed to forecast hourly ILR. Environmental data required for training and testing the FFNN model were obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). A global sensitivity analysis using the Sobol index, evaluated via the coefficients of a polynomial chaos expansion, was conducted to identify the most influential input parameters. The results indicate that only four input parameters significantly contribute to the variance in the response: precipitation, temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed. Furthermore, the FFNN model trained with metaheuristic optimizers outperformed the stochastic gradient descent approach. With the predicted ILR, ice accumulation can be easily calculated as the product of ILR and the amount of liquid precipitation depth.

架空输电线路系统上的积冰是造成停电的主要原因,在北方地区会导致巨大的经济损失。因此,准确、快速地预测输电线路上的积冰对确保电网安全运行至关重要。本研究介绍了一种预测冰液比(ILR)的机器学习方法,冰液比(ILR)是评估覆冰效率的重要参数。虽然估算冰液比(ILR)对运行预测至关重要,但许多现有的增冰模型都不具备这一功能。采用随机梯度下降和各种元启发式优化器(特别是粒子群优化器、灰狼优化器、鲸鱼优化器和粘菌优化器)训练的前馈神经网络(FFNN)来预测每小时的ILR。训练和测试 FFNN 模型所需的环境数据来自自动地表观测系统(ASOS)。为了确定影响最大的输入参数,使用索博尔指数(通过多项式混沌展开的系数进行评估)进行了全局敏感性分析。结果表明,只有四个输入参数对响应差异有显著影响:降水、温度、露点温度和风速。此外,使用元启发式优化器训练的 FFNN 模型优于随机梯度下降方法。利用预测的 ILR,可以很容易地计算出积冰量,即 ILR 与液态降水深度的乘积。
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引用次数: 0
Performance-based ice engineering framework: A data-driven multi-scale approach 基于性能的冰工程框架:数据驱动的多尺度方法
IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104247
Reda Snaiki

Ice storms are one of the most devastating natural hazards which have the potential to inflict significant damage to the built environment. The multi-hazard nature of ice events complicates the analysis of their induced risk due to their inherent nonlinear interactions. In addition, the concurrent and interacting hazards are often responsible for several aerodynamical/dynamical instabilities such as the galloping mechanism. Moreover, the existing risk approaches are usually not suited for large-scale risk evaluation over extended geographical regions due to the involved high-computational costs. Therefore, in this study, a novel data-driven multi-scale performance-based ice engineering (PBIE) framework is developed to support the design of new structures subjected to ice storms or the rehabilitation of existing ones. In addition, the proposed PBIE is capable of rapidly estimating the real-time risk over an extended region due to an ice event. Specifically, it leverages the superior capabilities of state-of-the-art data-driven techniques (e.g., machine learning) to efficiently generate the corresponding risk maps and identify the high-risk areas. The proposed PBIE framework is applied to a simplified example in which the galloping-induced risk on iced conductors, in terms of the galloping amplitude, is evaluated for both local and regional scales. The resulting PBIE framework can be readily applied for design or retrofitting purposes or integrated within an emergency response management system to inform preventive actions that can mitigate the ice storm-induced damages and save lives.

冰风暴是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,有可能对建筑环境造成重大破坏。由于冰雪灾害本身具有非线性相互作用的特点,其多重灾害性质使得对其诱发风险的分析变得更加复杂。此外,并发和相互影响的灾害通常会导致多种空气动力/动力不稳定性,如奔腾机制。此外,由于计算成本较高,现有的风险评估方法通常不适合在较广的地理区域内进行大规模风险评估。因此,本研究开发了一种新颖的数据驱动多尺度基于性能的冰工程(PBIE)框架,以支持受冰风暴影响的新结构设计或现有结构的修复。此外,所提出的基于性能的冰工程框架还能快速估算冰雪事件对整个区域造成的实时风险。具体来说,它利用最先进的数据驱动技术(如机器学习)的卓越能力,高效生成相应的风险地图并识别高风险区域。所提出的 PBIE 框架被应用于一个简化的示例中,在该示例中,以奔腾振幅为单位,对局部和区域尺度的结冰导线上的奔腾诱发风险进行评估。由此产生的 PBIE 框架可随时应用于设计或改造目的,或集成到应急响应管理系统中,为预防行动提供信息,从而减轻冰风暴造成的损失并挽救生命。
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Cold Regions Science and Technology
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