Pub Date : 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104758
Jiawei Zhai , Shibing Huang , Luobin Zheng , Lichen Li , Yonglong Yang , Qibiao Wei
The reduction in the shear strength of frozen coarse-grained soil (CGS) slopes during the warming process has led to many landslide disasters in cold regions. In this study, a series of direct shear tests were conducted to explore the effect of sand content and freezing temperature on the shear strength of CGS. The test results show that the CGS displays strain softening characteristics at freezing status and strain hardening characteristics at a room temperature. With the increase of freezing temperature, the brittleness of samples decreases while the plasticity increases. As the freezing temperature rises from −15 °C to −1 °C, the shear strength of CGS rapidly decreases by a maximum value of 71 %. A key finding is that the reduction in shear strength with increasing temperature is primarily attributed to a decrease in cohesion, while changes in the internal friction angle are negligible. Cohesion decreases sharply from 1.49 MPa at −15 °C to 0.057 MPa at 25 °C. Furthermore, the effect of sand content on strength parameters depends on temperature: at low freezing temperatures, higher sand content enhances cohesion, but at room temperatures it reduces cohesion. In all cases, the internal friction angle increases with sand content. This study can provide a better understanding of the shear strength degradation mechanism of CGS with different sand contents and related warming landslides in cold regions.
{"title":"Experimental investigation on the shear strength variation of frozen coarse-grained soil considering sand content and temperature effects","authors":"Jiawei Zhai , Shibing Huang , Luobin Zheng , Lichen Li , Yonglong Yang , Qibiao Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reduction in the shear strength of frozen coarse-grained soil (CGS) slopes during the warming process has led to many landslide disasters in cold regions. In this study, a series of direct shear tests were conducted to explore the effect of sand content and freezing temperature on the shear strength of CGS. The test results show that the CGS displays strain softening characteristics at freezing status and strain hardening characteristics at a room temperature. With the increase of freezing temperature, the brittleness of samples decreases while the plasticity increases. As the freezing temperature rises from −15 °C to −1 °C, the shear strength of CGS rapidly decreases by a maximum value of 71 %. A key finding is that the reduction in shear strength with increasing temperature is primarily attributed to a decrease in cohesion, while changes in the internal friction angle are negligible. Cohesion decreases sharply from 1.49 MPa at −15 °C to 0.057 MPa at 25 °C. Furthermore, the effect of sand content on strength parameters depends on temperature: at low freezing temperatures, higher sand content enhances cohesion, but at room temperatures it reduces cohesion. In all cases, the internal friction angle increases with sand content. This study can provide a better understanding of the shear strength degradation mechanism of CGS with different sand contents and related warming landslides in cold regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104758"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104741
Anna Siebenbrunner , Robert Delleske , Rolf-Ole Rydeng Jenssen , Markus Keuschnig
This study explores the potential of unoccupied aerial vehicle- (UAV-) borne ground penetrating radar (GPR) for high-resolution, slope-scale snow depth monitoring in challenging alpine environments to advance current methods of assessing the avalanche formation probability. To ensure accuracy under varying flight conditions, we systematically examined how UAV altitude and orientation influenced radar backscatter, assessing the necessity for altitude-based power calibration. These experiments revealed the impact of flight dynamics on signal return and helped refine data processing in complex terrain. Field campaigns were conducted across various sites in the Austrian Alps over two winter seasons, comparing GPR data with traditional reference measurements. Results revealed a strong correlation between GPR-derived and probe-measured snow depth (, ), demonstrating the reliability of the UAV-borne GPR method. Additionally, our findings highlight substantial small-scale variability in snow depth, even over short distances, underscoring the limitations of conventional point-scale observations. The UAV-borne GPR system used in this study features minimal deployment complexity, relying on off-the-shelf components, making it accessible to both scientists and practitioners. By providing high-resolution snow depth mapping, it complements fixed weather stations and significantly enhances traditional in situ observations as well as air- and spaceborne snow depth products. This method offers a safer, more efficient, and more detailed approach to data acquisition, with the potential to enhance avalanche monitoring and forecasting while contributing to improved safety measures in alpine environments.
{"title":"Towards slope-scale assessment of avalanche formation: Exploring UAV-borne GPR for unveiling spatial snowpack variability","authors":"Anna Siebenbrunner , Robert Delleske , Rolf-Ole Rydeng Jenssen , Markus Keuschnig","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104741","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104741","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the potential of unoccupied aerial vehicle- (UAV-) borne ground penetrating radar (GPR) for high-resolution, slope-scale snow depth monitoring in challenging alpine environments to advance current methods of assessing the avalanche formation probability. To ensure accuracy under varying flight conditions, we systematically examined how UAV altitude and orientation influenced radar backscatter, assessing the necessity for altitude-based power calibration. These experiments revealed the impact of flight dynamics on signal return and helped refine data processing in complex terrain. Field campaigns were conducted across various sites in the Austrian Alps over two winter seasons, comparing GPR data with traditional reference measurements. Results revealed a strong correlation between GPR-derived and probe-measured snow depth (<span><math><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>94</mn></mrow></math></span>, <span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>97</mn></mrow></math></span>), demonstrating the reliability of the UAV-borne GPR method. Additionally, our findings highlight substantial small-scale variability in snow depth, even over short distances, underscoring the limitations of conventional point-scale observations. The UAV-borne GPR system used in this study features minimal deployment complexity, relying on off-the-shelf components, making it accessible to both scientists and practitioners. By providing high-resolution snow depth mapping, it complements fixed weather stations and significantly enhances traditional in situ observations as well as air- and spaceborne snow depth products. This method offers a safer, more efficient, and more detailed approach to data acquisition, with the potential to enhance avalanche monitoring and forecasting while contributing to improved safety measures in alpine environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104741"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145576642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104756
Hongbo Zhang , Weixing Bao , Jie Li , Puerhaiti Ainiwaer , Xiaodong Li , Cheng Yuan , Xiaolin Guan
This study aims to evaluate the mechanisms of mechanical property changes and the internal damage deformation mechanism of warm permafrost under conditions with moisture contents ranging from ultra-high (25 % and 50 %) to low (8 % and 13.3 %). Triaxial compression tests were performed under three characteristic moisture content conditions at −0.3 °C, −0.7 °C, and − 1.2 °C, and at the confining pressures of 0.05 MPa, 0.15 MPa, and 0.3 MPa. The test results showed that the samples' moisture contents of 8 % and 13.3 % (saturation) exhibited strain-softening behaviour, with the 8 % moisture content samples demonstrating more pronounced strain-softening effects. The 25 % and 50 % moisture content samples displayed strain-hardening behaviour and exhibited the characteristic of the initial modulus rapidly dropping to a lower stable value, while the strength and residual strength for each moisture content showed a linear increase with decreasing temperature and increasing confining pressure. Variations in initial moisture content and dry density affected the internal bonding structure and skeletal framework of warm permafrost, and the internal bonding structure and skeletal composition determined the upper and lower strength limits, respectively. The impacts of temperature, confining pressure, and initial moisture content on modulus varied considerably. As the initial moisture content increased, warm permafrost transitioned from brittle shear to plastic bulging failure. In addition, the structural properties, deformation behaviour, and failure mechanisms of warm permafrost varied considerably with changes in the moisture content. Confining pressure and temperature influenced the mechanical damage, deformation, and failure behaviour of warm permafrost through distinct mechanisms. A more versatile nonlinear elastic damage model was developed based on the specific damage-deformation characteristics of warm permafrost. The prediction model yielded results that agreed closely with the experimental data.
{"title":"Mechanical characteristics and constitutive elastic damage modelling of warm frozen silty sand with different moisture contents","authors":"Hongbo Zhang , Weixing Bao , Jie Li , Puerhaiti Ainiwaer , Xiaodong Li , Cheng Yuan , Xiaolin Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104756","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104756","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to evaluate the mechanisms of mechanical property changes and the internal damage deformation mechanism of warm permafrost under conditions with moisture contents ranging from ultra-high (25 % and 50 %) to low (8 % and 13.3 %). Triaxial compression tests were performed under three characteristic moisture content conditions at −0.3 °C, −0.7 °C, and − 1.2 °C, and at the confining pressures of 0.05 MPa, 0.15 MPa, and 0.3 MPa. The test results showed that the samples' moisture contents of 8 % and 13.3 % (saturation) exhibited strain-softening behaviour, with the 8 % moisture content samples demonstrating more pronounced strain-softening effects. The 25 % and 50 % moisture content samples displayed strain-hardening behaviour and exhibited the characteristic of the initial modulus rapidly dropping to a lower stable value, while the strength and residual strength for each moisture content showed a linear increase with decreasing temperature and increasing confining pressure. Variations in initial moisture content and dry density affected the internal bonding structure and skeletal framework of warm permafrost, and the internal bonding structure and skeletal composition determined the upper and lower strength limits, respectively. The impacts of temperature, confining pressure, and initial moisture content on modulus varied considerably. As the initial moisture content increased, warm permafrost transitioned from brittle shear to plastic bulging failure. In addition, the structural properties, deformation behaviour, and failure mechanisms of warm permafrost varied considerably with changes in the moisture content. Confining pressure and temperature influenced the mechanical damage, deformation, and failure behaviour of warm permafrost through distinct mechanisms. A more versatile nonlinear elastic damage model was developed based on the specific damage-deformation characteristics of warm permafrost. The prediction model yielded results that agreed closely with the experimental data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104756"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145576707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104755
Lihua Chen , Yanjun Che , Yun Cao , Mingjun Zhang , Lailei Gu , Shijin Wang
As an important part of the glaciated region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the western part of the Kunlun Mountains has mainly been studied, while little research has been conducted in the eastern part of the Kunlun Mountains due to its harsh environment and poor accessibility. In this study, the Ulugh Muztagh region of the largest glaciated region in the eastern Kunlun Mountains was selected as the study area to estimate the changes in the glaciers, glacial lakes, and local climate. The outlines of the glaciers and glacial lakes were manually extracted to obtain an accurate glacier inventory, and the characteristics of these glaciers and glacial lakes during 1990–2020 were analyzed. The results revealed that there were 245 glaciers and 16 glacial lakes in 1990 and 2020. During this period, the glacier area decreased by 7.95 ± 1.26 km2 and the glacial lake area decreased by 0.24 km2. The area of these glaciers exhibited a slight retreat, and the area of the glacial lakes shrank by 7.2 km2. The number of glacial lakes exhibited a fluctuating increasing trend. Two glacial lake outbursts occurred in an ice-dammed lake in the northwestern part of Ulugh Muztagh during 1998–2002, exhibiting a periodic outburst pattern. In addition, the recession of the glaciers in contact with glacial lakes was more significant than that of the glaciers not in contact with glacial lakes. The significant increase in summer precipitation was a main driving factor in the evolution of the glacial lakes. The slight retreat of the glaciers in this region did not exhibit a significant correlation with the summer air temperature, but it did exhibit a correlation with the precipitation.
{"title":"Glacier and glacial lake evolution in response to local climate forcing: A quantitative assessment in Ulugh Muztagh, Eastern Kunlun Mountains","authors":"Lihua Chen , Yanjun Che , Yun Cao , Mingjun Zhang , Lailei Gu , Shijin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104755","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104755","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As an important part of the glaciated region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the western part of the Kunlun Mountains has mainly been studied, while little research has been conducted in the eastern part of the Kunlun Mountains due to its harsh environment and poor accessibility. In this study, the Ulugh Muztagh region of the largest glaciated region in the eastern Kunlun Mountains was selected as the study area to estimate the changes in the glaciers, glacial lakes, and local climate. The outlines of the glaciers and glacial lakes were manually extracted to obtain an accurate glacier inventory, and the characteristics of these glaciers and glacial lakes during 1990–2020 were analyzed. The results revealed that there were 245 glaciers and 16 glacial lakes in 1990 and 2020. During this period, the glacier area decreased by 7.95 ± 1.26 km<sup>2</sup> and the glacial lake area decreased by 0.24 km<sup>2</sup>. The area of these glaciers exhibited a slight retreat, and the area of the glacial lakes shrank by 7.2 km<sup>2</sup>. The number of glacial lakes exhibited a fluctuating increasing trend. Two glacial lake outbursts occurred in an ice-dammed lake in the northwestern part of Ulugh Muztagh during 1998–2002, exhibiting a periodic outburst pattern. In addition, the recession of the glaciers in contact with glacial lakes was more significant than that of the glaciers not in contact with glacial lakes. The significant increase in summer precipitation was a main driving factor in the evolution of the glacial lakes. The slight retreat of the glaciers in this region did not exhibit a significant correlation with the summer air temperature, but it did exhibit a correlation with the precipitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104755"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145576643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The high mountainous regions of western Mongolia serve as vital “water towers” for Indigenous herders and fragile ecosystems. However, climate change presents serious threats to the high-altitude cryosphere—glaciers and permafrost—jeopardizing water security. Artificial ice reservoir technologies have emerged as adaptive solutions to address seasonal water shortages, especially in the spring. These systems involve freezing diverted melt water during winter and gradually releasing it as it melts in warmer months for drinking, irrigation, and livestock watering.
This review systematically evaluates four major approaches—traditional ice harvesting, diversion-based artificial glaciers, in-stream glacier enhancement, and recent innovations such as Ice Walls and Ice Stupas. Beyond describing techniques, we critically analyze their efficiency, scalability, and applicability under different climatic and socio-economic conditions. The Ice Stupa, initially developed in Ladakh, shows promising potential for adaptation in the Mongolian Altai due to its low-cost construction, flexibility, and controlled seasonal release. However, its success still depends heavily on local hydrological conditions, community participation, and ongoing maintenance.
To our knowledge, this is the first review to contextualize artificial ice reservoir technologies for Mongolia. By synthesizing global experiences with local environmental challenges, we highlight lessons learned, outline key design and implementation criteria, and suggest directions for future field testing. As climate pressures grow, these nature-based solutions could help enhance long-term water resilience strategies in high-altitude, arid regions.
{"title":"Considerable potential for artificial ice reservoirs in the Mongolian Altai mountains to mitigate the impact of climate change on water security in arid western Mongolia","authors":"Zolbayar Jargalsaikhan , Batsuren Dorjsuren , Otgonbayar Demberel , Altanbold Enkhbold , Dashlkham Batmunkh , Muhammad Adnan , Hongkai Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The high mountainous regions of western Mongolia serve as vital “water towers” for Indigenous herders and fragile ecosystems. However, climate change presents serious threats to the high-altitude cryosphere—glaciers and permafrost—jeopardizing water security. Artificial ice reservoir technologies have emerged as adaptive solutions to address seasonal water shortages, especially in the spring. These systems involve freezing diverted melt water during winter and gradually releasing it as it melts in warmer months for drinking, irrigation, and livestock watering.</div><div>This review systematically evaluates four major approaches—traditional ice harvesting, diversion-based artificial glaciers, in-stream glacier enhancement, and recent innovations such as Ice Walls and Ice Stupas. Beyond describing techniques, we critically analyze their efficiency, scalability, and applicability under different climatic and socio-economic conditions. The Ice Stupa, initially developed in Ladakh, shows promising potential for adaptation in the Mongolian Altai due to its low-cost construction, flexibility, and controlled seasonal release. However, its success still depends heavily on local hydrological conditions, community participation, and ongoing maintenance.</div><div>To our knowledge, this is the first review to contextualize artificial ice reservoir technologies for Mongolia. By synthesizing global experiences with local environmental challenges, we highlight lessons learned, outline key design and implementation criteria, and suggest directions for future field testing. As climate pressures grow, these nature-based solutions could help enhance long-term water resilience strategies in high-altitude, arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104748"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104754
Heqing Gou , Xinchun Guan
This study establishes a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to describe the damage evolution of cementitious materials with dissolved salts under freeze-thaw conditions, from unsaturated to saturated states of water. A pore pressure calculation equation, accounting for air, is proposed based on the thermodynamic equilibrium of substances in the pores and the initial material state, and integrated into the pore elastoplastic model.The model also considers the convective diffusion of the gas phase and the permeation adsorption process of dissolved salts. The freeze-thaw process is simulated using the equilibrium method, incorporating hysteresis effects, and combined with the saturation function to quantify the uneven ice distribution due to the saturation gradient from external moisture absorption.The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through comparisons with experimental data and the results of classical models from the literature. The discussion section demonstrates that the model effectively describes the process of moisture replacing air in pores during freeze-thaw cycles and incorporates this into the subsequent cycle. It also shows that the surface moisture saturation is significantly higher than that of the interior, which is a key factor contributing to surface frost damage in the material.
{"title":"The freeze-thaw model of cementitious materials partially saturated with dissolved salts: From elastic deformation to non-uniform plastic deformation","authors":"Heqing Gou , Xinchun Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104754","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104754","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study establishes a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to describe the damage evolution of cementitious materials with dissolved salts under freeze-thaw conditions, from unsaturated to saturated states of water. A pore pressure calculation equation, accounting for air, is proposed based on the thermodynamic equilibrium of substances in the pores and the initial material state, and integrated into the pore elastoplastic model.The model also considers the convective diffusion of the gas phase and the permeation adsorption process of dissolved salts. The freeze-thaw process is simulated using the equilibrium method, incorporating hysteresis effects, and combined with the saturation function to quantify the uneven ice distribution due to the saturation gradient from external moisture absorption.The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through comparisons with experimental data and the results of classical models from the literature. The discussion section demonstrates that the model effectively describes the process of moisture replacing air in pores during freeze-thaw cycles and incorporates this into the subsequent cycle. It also shows that the surface moisture saturation is significantly higher than that of the interior, which is a key factor contributing to surface frost damage in the material.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104754"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104735
Ali Fatolahzadeh Gheysari , Pooneh Maghoul
Infrastructure in northern regions is increasingly threatened by climate change, mainly due to permafrost thaw. Prediction of permafrost stability is essential for assessing the long-term stability of such infrastructure. A key aspect of geotechnical problems subject to climate change is addressing the surface energy balance (SEB). In this study, we evaluated three methodologies for applying surface boundary conditions in long-term thermal geotechnical analyses, including SEB heat flux, n-factors, and machine learning (ML) models by using ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data until 2100. We aimed to determine the most effective approach for accurately predicting ground surface temperatures for climate-resilient design of northern infrastructure. The evaluation results indicated that the ML-based approach outperformed both the SEB heat flux and n-factors methods, demonstrating significantly lower prediction errors. The feasibility of long-term thermal analysis of geotechnical problems using ML-predicted ground surface temperatures was then demonstrated through a permafrost case study in the community of Salluit in northern Canada, for which the thickness of the active layer and talik were calculated under moderate and extreme climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Finally, we discussed the application and limitations of surface boundary condition methodologies, such as the limited applicability of the n-factors in long-term analysis and the sensitivity of the SEB heat flux to inputs and thermal imbalance. The findings highlight the importance of selecting suitable boundary condition methodologies in enhancing the reliability of thermal geotechnical analyses in cold regions.
{"title":"Ground surface boundary condition methods for analysis of climate-driven permafrost thaw: A comparative study and long-term projections for Nunavik, Canada","authors":"Ali Fatolahzadeh Gheysari , Pooneh Maghoul","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Infrastructure in northern regions is increasingly threatened by climate change, mainly due to permafrost thaw. Prediction of permafrost stability is essential for assessing the long-term stability of such infrastructure. A key aspect of geotechnical problems subject to climate change is addressing the surface energy balance (SEB). In this study, we evaluated three methodologies for applying surface boundary conditions in long-term thermal geotechnical analyses, including SEB heat flux, n-factors, and machine learning (ML) models by using ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data until 2100. We aimed to determine the most effective approach for accurately predicting ground surface temperatures for climate-resilient design of northern infrastructure. The evaluation results indicated that the ML-based approach outperformed both the SEB heat flux and n-factors methods, demonstrating significantly lower prediction errors. The feasibility of long-term thermal analysis of geotechnical problems using ML-predicted ground surface temperatures was then demonstrated through a permafrost case study in the community of Salluit in northern Canada, for which the thickness of the active layer and talik were calculated under moderate and extreme climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Finally, we discussed the application and limitations of surface boundary condition methodologies, such as the limited applicability of the n-factors in long-term analysis and the sensitivity of the SEB heat flux to inputs and thermal imbalance. The findings highlight the importance of selecting suitable boundary condition methodologies in enhancing the reliability of thermal geotechnical analyses in cold regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104735"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104752
Wei Liu , Xiangtian Xu , Xinran Sun , Wenli Zhao
Pisha sandstone, as the main geotechnical composition in the Ordos region, directly affects the safety and stability of transportation infrastructure due to its pore pressures. This study investigates the pore pressure variation in unsaturated frozen Pisha sandstone and develops a novel testing system capable of simultaneously measuring pore water pressure and pore air pressure, overcoming the limitations of traditional single-phase testing devices. The main advantage of this system is that it separates pore water pressure testing from pore air pressure testing, overcoming the limitation of traditional methods that cannot distinguish between the two, allowing for a clearer understanding of how moisture migration affects frost heaving. Using this system, freezing experiments were carried out on unsaturated frozen Pisha sandstone samples with varying initial saturations under a − 15 °C cold bath condition. Data on the changes in pore pressure and frost heave deformation during the freezing process were collected. The results indicate that pore water pressure decays exponentially during freezing, and its variation is closely linked to the unfrozen water content. In the early stage of freezing, the pore water pressure decreases sharply and then stabilizes in the steady state. At higher saturation levels, the rate of decrease in pore water pressure slows down significantly. Specifically, when the initial saturation is 37.19 % and 74.38 %, the peak pore water pressure values are −52.6 kPa and − 61.5 kPa, respectively. In samples with higher saturation, the pore water pressure approaches −74.1 kPa and − 74.8 kPa, indicating a clear enhancement of pore water pressure due to higher saturation. The pore air pressure decreases sharply in the early stages of freezing, particularly in high-saturation samples, where a pronounced nonlinear variation in pore air pressure is observed, and shallow air pressure is significantly higher than deep air pressure. The coordinated evolution of pore air and pore water pressures during freezing reflects the interactions among the ice-water-air three-phase medium, particularly during ice crystal expansion and water-ice phase transition. The findings provide support for the study of pore pressure in unsaturated frozen soil and offer technical support for the stability assessment of engineering in frozen soil areas.
{"title":"Experimental study on the variation of pore pressure and the frost heave characteristics of unsaturated frozen Pisha sandstone","authors":"Wei Liu , Xiangtian Xu , Xinran Sun , Wenli Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pisha sandstone, as the main geotechnical composition in the Ordos region, directly affects the safety and stability of transportation infrastructure due to its pore pressures. This study investigates the pore pressure variation in unsaturated frozen Pisha sandstone and develops a novel testing system capable of simultaneously measuring pore water pressure and pore air pressure, overcoming the limitations of traditional single-phase testing devices. The main advantage of this system is that it separates pore water pressure testing from pore air pressure testing, overcoming the limitation of traditional methods that cannot distinguish between the two, allowing for a clearer understanding of how moisture migration affects frost heaving. Using this system, freezing experiments were carried out on unsaturated frozen Pisha sandstone samples with varying initial saturations under a − 15 °C cold bath condition. Data on the changes in pore pressure and frost heave deformation during the freezing process were collected. The results indicate that pore water pressure decays exponentially during freezing, and its variation is closely linked to the unfrozen water content. In the early stage of freezing, the pore water pressure decreases sharply and then stabilizes in the steady state. At higher saturation levels, the rate of decrease in pore water pressure slows down significantly. Specifically, when the initial saturation is 37.19 % and 74.38 %, the peak pore water pressure values are −52.6 kPa and − 61.5 kPa, respectively. In samples with higher saturation, the pore water pressure approaches −74.1 kPa and − 74.8 kPa, indicating a clear enhancement of pore water pressure due to higher saturation. The pore air pressure decreases sharply in the early stages of freezing, particularly in high-saturation samples, where a pronounced nonlinear variation in pore air pressure is observed, and shallow air pressure is significantly higher than deep air pressure. The coordinated evolution of pore air and pore water pressures during freezing reflects the interactions among the ice-water-air three-phase medium, particularly during ice crystal expansion and water-ice phase transition. The findings provide support for the study of pore pressure in unsaturated frozen soil and offer technical support for the stability assessment of engineering in frozen soil areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104752"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104750
Guanya Lu , Zhengyu Li , Xiyin Zhang , Bingzhe Zhang
For bridge design and analysis in frozen-soil regions, the p-y curve is a widely used and effective method for simulating the mechanical behavior of pile-frozen soil interaction. Two key parameters that define this curve are the unconfined compressive strength (UCS, σm) and strain corresponding to 50 % ultimate strength (ε50). However, rapidly and accurately predicting how critical factors such as temperature, strain rate, and dry density affect frozen soil behavior and the resulting p-y curve remains a persistent challenge. This study presents a comprehensive database of 761 experimental samples derived from established unconfined compression tests on frozen soils. Automated machine learning models were developed to predict σm and ε50, and their applicability domains and prediction intervals were established. These models outperformed five traditional machine learning algorithms. Moreover, SHapley Additive exPlanations were used to interpret the contribution of temperature, strain rate, dry density, and soil type to model predictions, enhancing the understanding of their interactions. The results show that the proposed approach effectively captures the effects of key parameters across a broad range of conditions. Additionally, comparisons with classical empirical equations reveal that the AutoML models offer improved accuracy in predicting σm and ε50. An engineering recommendation table was also constructed to enhance the models' practical applicability. The established AutoML model provides a solution for estimating the mechanical properties of frozen soils, particularly under unconfined or low-confinement scenarios.
{"title":"Automated machine learning and interpretability analysis for predicting frozen soil properties in p–y curve calibration","authors":"Guanya Lu , Zhengyu Li , Xiyin Zhang , Bingzhe Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104750","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For bridge design and analysis in frozen-soil regions, the <em>p-y</em> curve is a widely used and effective method for simulating the mechanical behavior of pile-frozen soil interaction. Two key parameters that define this curve are the unconfined compressive strength (UCS, <em>σ</em><sub><em>m</em></sub>) and strain corresponding to 50 % ultimate strength (<em>ε</em><sub>50</sub>). However, rapidly and accurately predicting how critical factors such as temperature, strain rate, and dry density affect frozen soil behavior and the resulting <em>p</em>-<em>y</em> curve remains a persistent challenge. This study presents a comprehensive database of 761 experimental samples derived from established unconfined compression tests on frozen soils. Automated machine learning models were developed to predict <em>σ</em><sub><em>m</em></sub> and <em>ε</em><sub>50</sub>, and their applicability domains and prediction intervals were established. These models outperformed five traditional machine learning algorithms. Moreover, SHapley Additive exPlanations were used to interpret the contribution of temperature, strain rate, dry density, and soil type to model predictions, enhancing the understanding of their interactions. The results show that the proposed approach effectively captures the effects of key parameters across a broad range of conditions. Additionally, comparisons with classical empirical equations reveal that the AutoML models offer improved accuracy in predicting <em>σ</em><sub><em>m</em></sub> and <em>ε</em><sub>50</sub>. An engineering recommendation table was also constructed to enhance the models' practical applicability. The established AutoML model provides a solution for estimating the mechanical properties of frozen soils, particularly under unconfined or low-confinement scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104750"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104753
Kunyu Li , Chong Wang , Ying Lai , Jiaqi Tian , Fanshuo Meng , Junping Ren , Shuangyang Li
Controlling soil freezing in cold regions can mitigate engineering problems caused by freezing-thawing cycles. The challenge lies in predicting the duration of soil supercooling and determining its limiting temperature. Based on the thermodynamic and crystallization dynamics methods, we constructed a theoretical model to estimate the duration of soil supercooling by analyzing phase changes and energy evolution during the supercooling process. We also explored and designed a comprehensive scheme for controlling soil supercooling and freezing. The following conclusions were obtained: the validity of the proposed theoretical model (RMSE≈0.011 h, MAPE≈2.14 %, R2 ≈ 0.98) was confirmed using the soil freezing observation test data carried out by several groups of scholars under different conditions. The supercooling process can be divided into two phases: “cooling” and “recovery”. Usually, the recovery phase is very short and can be neglected in saline and clay soils. Within the scope of common operating conditions, sensitivities to the supercooling duration, in descending order, are pore radius, salinity, pore ratio and pore saturation. Supercooling duration is inversely proportional to pore size and directly proportional to pore ratio and saturation. Increasing soil porosity and saturation while decreasing soil pore radius significantly enhances soil supercooling properties. However, to prevent frost heave, saturation should not exceed 0.9. In areas with high salinity or non-saline areas, maintaining consistent local salinity helps preserve soil supercooling properties. In salinized soils, replacing non-saline soils at appropriate project depths can optimize supercooling and reduce the risk of salt expansion related issues.
{"title":"Study of supercooling phenomena in soil-water systems based on nucleation theory: quantifying supercooling duration","authors":"Kunyu Li , Chong Wang , Ying Lai , Jiaqi Tian , Fanshuo Meng , Junping Ren , Shuangyang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104753","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104753","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Controlling soil freezing in cold regions can mitigate engineering problems caused by freezing-thawing cycles. The challenge lies in predicting the duration of soil supercooling and determining its limiting temperature. Based on the thermodynamic and crystallization dynamics methods, we constructed a theoretical model to estimate the duration of soil supercooling by analyzing phase changes and energy evolution during the supercooling process. We also explored and designed a comprehensive scheme for controlling soil supercooling and freezing. The following conclusions were obtained: the validity of the proposed theoretical model (RMSE≈0.011 h, MAPE≈2.14 %, R<sup>2</sup> ≈ 0.98) was confirmed using the soil freezing observation test data carried out by several groups of scholars under different conditions. The supercooling process can be divided into two phases: “cooling” and “recovery”. Usually, the recovery phase is very short and can be neglected in saline and clay soils. Within the scope of common operating conditions, sensitivities to the supercooling duration, in descending order, are pore radius, salinity, pore ratio and pore saturation. Supercooling duration is inversely proportional to pore size and directly proportional to pore ratio and saturation. Increasing soil porosity and saturation while decreasing soil pore radius significantly enhances soil supercooling properties. However, to prevent frost heave, saturation should not exceed 0.9. In areas with high salinity or non-saline areas, maintaining consistent local salinity helps preserve soil supercooling properties. In salinized soils, replacing non-saline soils at appropriate project depths can optimize supercooling and reduce the risk of salt expansion related issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104753"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}