Pub Date : 2024-11-03DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01819-4
Tiffany A. Shaw, Osamu Miyawaki, Hsing-Hung Chou, Russell Blackport
Earth’s upper-level jet streams primarily flow in the eastward direction. They often exhibit a north-south component or waviness connected to extreme weather at the surface. Recently the upper-level eastward jet stream was found to exhibit a fast-get-faster response under climate change explained by the impact of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation on the latitudinal density contrast. Here we show the fast-get-faster mechanism also applies to the upper-level north-south jet stream wind and the longitudinal density contrast, implying increased waviness under climate change. Arctic Sea ice loss, which has been proposed as a driver of increased waviness, cannot explain the response. It leads to a fast-get-slower waviness response at all vertical levels. We demonstrate the fast-get-faster waviness signal has emerged in reanalysis data in the Southern Hemisphere but not yet in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show the fast-get-faster mechanism explains upper-level waviness changes and highlights a tug of war between upper- and mid-level waviness under climate change. Climate change causes upper-level jet stream waviness to increase in both hemispheres, with extreme southward and northward excursions increasing faster than the mean, according to results from a fast-get-faster mechanism connecting waviness to density contrast changes.
{"title":"Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change","authors":"Tiffany A. Shaw, Osamu Miyawaki, Hsing-Hung Chou, Russell Blackport","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01819-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01819-4","url":null,"abstract":"Earth’s upper-level jet streams primarily flow in the eastward direction. They often exhibit a north-south component or waviness connected to extreme weather at the surface. Recently the upper-level eastward jet stream was found to exhibit a fast-get-faster response under climate change explained by the impact of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation on the latitudinal density contrast. Here we show the fast-get-faster mechanism also applies to the upper-level north-south jet stream wind and the longitudinal density contrast, implying increased waviness under climate change. Arctic Sea ice loss, which has been proposed as a driver of increased waviness, cannot explain the response. It leads to a fast-get-slower waviness response at all vertical levels. We demonstrate the fast-get-faster waviness signal has emerged in reanalysis data in the Southern Hemisphere but not yet in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show the fast-get-faster mechanism explains upper-level waviness changes and highlights a tug of war between upper- and mid-level waviness under climate change. Climate change causes upper-level jet stream waviness to increase in both hemispheres, with extreme southward and northward excursions increasing faster than the mean, according to results from a fast-get-faster mechanism connecting waviness to density contrast changes.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01819-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01803-y
Michael D. Garber, Tarik Benmarhnia, Weiqi Zhou, Pierpaolo Mudu, David Rojas-Rueda
Urban green space and urban compactness are each important principles for designing healthy, climate-resilient cities. The principles can co-exist, but greening may come at density’s expense if not considered deliberately. Existing studies estimating health impacts of greening scenarios have not considered what level of greenness is attainable for different population densities. Here, using the square kilometer as the unit of analysis, we estimate non-accidental mortality that could be prevented among adults older than 30 by greening that small area to a level of greenness assumed to be attainable based on its broader urban area (N = 15,917 globally), population density, and ecological zone. Results suggest a large potential for urban greening even in the most population-dense parts of cities such that on average 54 deaths per 100,000 could be prevented per year in those areas. That estimate may be about 25% higher or lower due to uncertainty in the underlying model. Greening urban areas to attainable levels for their population density and ecological zone could decrease nonaccidental mortality by about 50 deaths per year per 100,000 adults older than 30, according to epidemiologic analyses from 15,917 urban areas.
{"title":"Greening urban areas in line with population density and ecological zone can reduce premature mortality","authors":"Michael D. Garber, Tarik Benmarhnia, Weiqi Zhou, Pierpaolo Mudu, David Rojas-Rueda","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01803-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01803-y","url":null,"abstract":"Urban green space and urban compactness are each important principles for designing healthy, climate-resilient cities. The principles can co-exist, but greening may come at density’s expense if not considered deliberately. Existing studies estimating health impacts of greening scenarios have not considered what level of greenness is attainable for different population densities. Here, using the square kilometer as the unit of analysis, we estimate non-accidental mortality that could be prevented among adults older than 30 by greening that small area to a level of greenness assumed to be attainable based on its broader urban area (N = 15,917 globally), population density, and ecological zone. Results suggest a large potential for urban greening even in the most population-dense parts of cities such that on average 54 deaths per 100,000 could be prevented per year in those areas. That estimate may be about 25% higher or lower due to uncertainty in the underlying model. Greening urban areas to attainable levels for their population density and ecological zone could decrease nonaccidental mortality by about 50 deaths per year per 100,000 adults older than 30, according to epidemiologic analyses from 15,917 urban areas.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01803-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01849-y
Shouwei Li, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Se-Yong Song, Qinxue Gu
While the changes in ocean heat uptake in a warming climate have been well explored, the changes in response to climate mitigation efforts remain unclear. Using coupled climate model simulations, here we find that in response to a hypothesized reduction of greenhouse gases in the late 21st century, ocean heat uptake would significantly decline in all ocean basins except the North Atlantic, where a persistently weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation results in sustained heat uptake. These prolonged circulation anomalies further lead to interbasin heat exchanges, characterized by a sustained heat export from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and a portion of heat transfer from the Southern Ocean to the Indo-Pacific. Due to ocean heat uptake decline and interbasin heat export, the Southern Ocean experiences the strongest decline in ocean heat storage therefore emerging as the primary heat exchanger, while heat changes in the Indo-Pacific basin are relatively limited. Climate mitigation efforts will decrease ocean heat uptake in all ocean basins, except the North Atlantic, where weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation leads to sustained heat uptake, according to results from climate simulations to analyze changes in global ocean heat due to a projected greenhouse gas reduction.
{"title":"Mitigation-driven global heat imbalance in the late 21st century","authors":"Shouwei Li, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Se-Yong Song, Qinxue Gu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01849-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01849-y","url":null,"abstract":"While the changes in ocean heat uptake in a warming climate have been well explored, the changes in response to climate mitigation efforts remain unclear. Using coupled climate model simulations, here we find that in response to a hypothesized reduction of greenhouse gases in the late 21st century, ocean heat uptake would significantly decline in all ocean basins except the North Atlantic, where a persistently weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation results in sustained heat uptake. These prolonged circulation anomalies further lead to interbasin heat exchanges, characterized by a sustained heat export from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and a portion of heat transfer from the Southern Ocean to the Indo-Pacific. Due to ocean heat uptake decline and interbasin heat export, the Southern Ocean experiences the strongest decline in ocean heat storage therefore emerging as the primary heat exchanger, while heat changes in the Indo-Pacific basin are relatively limited. Climate mitigation efforts will decrease ocean heat uptake in all ocean basins, except the North Atlantic, where weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation leads to sustained heat uptake, according to results from climate simulations to analyze changes in global ocean heat due to a projected greenhouse gas reduction.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01849-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01828-3
E. Bollinger, P. Schwilden, F. Y. Lai, R. Schulz, M. Bundschuh, S. Filker
Methane (CH4) emissions from natural systems are rising in a concerning manner with an incomplete understanding of its drivers. Recently, chemical stressors such as antibiotics have been suggested as a thus far overlooked factor increasing methanogenesis in freshwaters. Since usage and toxicological impact of antibiotics could increase in a warming climate, we assessed the temperature-dependence of antibiotic effects on methanogenesis. In this light, we conducted anaerobic incubations with freshwater sediment at 10, 15, and 20 °C in presence of a mixture of five antibiotics at field-relevant concentrations. Weekly measurements of CH4 showed a strong temperature dependence of antibiotic effects by changing effect sizes, directions and dynamics. While antibiotics reduced CH4 production at 10 °C, methanogenesis was elevated at 15 °C with the most pronounced increase occurring at 20 °C. Furthermore, antibiotics changed the prokaryotic assemblage at all temperatures and effect patterns of CH4 producing Methanomicrobia strongly followed the patterns observed for methanogenesis. While analyses of compound-specific stable isotopes and the metatranscriptome suggest the acetoclastic pathway as most relevant, linking prokaryotic structure to function remains one of the most significant research challenges. Nevertheless, the evidence provided by this study suggests a positive relationship between temperature and the stimulating effects of antibiotics on CH4 production. Temperature increases the potential harmful effects of antibiotics on the concentration of greenhouse gases through increased methanogenesis, according to anaerobic incubation experiments with freshwater sediments.
{"title":"Higher temperatures exacerbate effects of antibiotics on methanogenesis in freshwater sediment","authors":"E. Bollinger, P. Schwilden, F. Y. Lai, R. Schulz, M. Bundschuh, S. Filker","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01828-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01828-3","url":null,"abstract":"Methane (CH4) emissions from natural systems are rising in a concerning manner with an incomplete understanding of its drivers. Recently, chemical stressors such as antibiotics have been suggested as a thus far overlooked factor increasing methanogenesis in freshwaters. Since usage and toxicological impact of antibiotics could increase in a warming climate, we assessed the temperature-dependence of antibiotic effects on methanogenesis. In this light, we conducted anaerobic incubations with freshwater sediment at 10, 15, and 20 °C in presence of a mixture of five antibiotics at field-relevant concentrations. Weekly measurements of CH4 showed a strong temperature dependence of antibiotic effects by changing effect sizes, directions and dynamics. While antibiotics reduced CH4 production at 10 °C, methanogenesis was elevated at 15 °C with the most pronounced increase occurring at 20 °C. Furthermore, antibiotics changed the prokaryotic assemblage at all temperatures and effect patterns of CH4 producing Methanomicrobia strongly followed the patterns observed for methanogenesis. While analyses of compound-specific stable isotopes and the metatranscriptome suggest the acetoclastic pathway as most relevant, linking prokaryotic structure to function remains one of the most significant research challenges. Nevertheless, the evidence provided by this study suggests a positive relationship between temperature and the stimulating effects of antibiotics on CH4 production. Temperature increases the potential harmful effects of antibiotics on the concentration of greenhouse gases through increased methanogenesis, according to anaerobic incubation experiments with freshwater sediments.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01828-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w
Mark J. Grosvenor, Vissia Ardiyani, Martin J. Wooster, Stefan Gillott, David C. Green, Puji Lestari, Wiranda Suri
Tropical peatland fires generate substantial quantities of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and in Indonesia are intensified during El Niño-related drought leading to severe air quality impacts affecting local and distant populations. Limited in-situ data often necessitates reliance on air quality models, like that of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, whose accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood. Here we demonstrate how a network of low-cost sensors around Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan during the 2019 fire season, quantified extreme air quality and city-scale variability. The data indicates relatively strong model performance. Health impacts are substantial with estimates of over 1200 excess deaths in the Palangka Raya region, over 3200 across Central Kalimantan and more than 87,000 nationwide in 2019 due to fire-induced PM2.5 exposure. These findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate extreme fire events, including reducing fire use and landscape remediation to prevent peat fire ignition. Networks of low-cost sensors can be used with atmospheric models to understand variability of air quality on a fine scale and show that emissions from peatland fires contribute to many excess deaths, suggests an analysis from the 2019 fire season in Kalimantan
{"title":"Catastrophic impact of extreme 2019 Indonesian peatland fires on urban air quality and health","authors":"Mark J. Grosvenor, Vissia Ardiyani, Martin J. Wooster, Stefan Gillott, David C. Green, Puji Lestari, Wiranda Suri","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical peatland fires generate substantial quantities of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and in Indonesia are intensified during El Niño-related drought leading to severe air quality impacts affecting local and distant populations. Limited in-situ data often necessitates reliance on air quality models, like that of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, whose accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood. Here we demonstrate how a network of low-cost sensors around Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan during the 2019 fire season, quantified extreme air quality and city-scale variability. The data indicates relatively strong model performance. Health impacts are substantial with estimates of over 1200 excess deaths in the Palangka Raya region, over 3200 across Central Kalimantan and more than 87,000 nationwide in 2019 due to fire-induced PM2.5 exposure. These findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate extreme fire events, including reducing fire use and landscape remediation to prevent peat fire ignition. Networks of low-cost sensors can be used with atmospheric models to understand variability of air quality on a fine scale and show that emissions from peatland fires contribute to many excess deaths, suggests an analysis from the 2019 fire season in Kalimantan","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01813-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8
Michael Schindler, Jie Xu, Michael F. Hochella Jr
Nanomaterials have unique properties and play critical roles in the budget, cycling, and chemical processing of elements on Earth. An understanding of the cycling of nanomaterials can be greatly improved if the pathways of their formation are clearly recognized and understood. Here, we show that nanomaterial formation pathways mediated by aqueous fluids can be grouped into four major categories, abiotic and biotic processes coupled and decoupled from weathering processes. These can be subdivided in 18 subcategories relevant to the critical zone, and environments such as ocean hydrothermal vents and the upper mantle. Similarly, pathways in the gas phase such as volcanic fumaroles, wildfires and particle formation in the stratosphere and troposphere can be grouped into two major groups and five subcategories. In the most fundamental sense, both aqueous-fluid and gaseous pathways provide an understanding of the formation of all minerals which are inherently based on nanoscale precursors and reactions. The formation of nanomaterials in aqueous fluids can be explained by four different pathways: formation by biotic and abiotic processes, coupled and decoupled with weathering processes. In the Earth’s critical zone, these pathways can be classified into 18 subcategories based on the surrounding environment.
{"title":"Abiotic and biotic-controlled nanomaterial formation pathways within the Earth’s nanomaterial cycle","authors":"Michael Schindler, Jie Xu, Michael F. Hochella Jr","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8","url":null,"abstract":"Nanomaterials have unique properties and play critical roles in the budget, cycling, and chemical processing of elements on Earth. An understanding of the cycling of nanomaterials can be greatly improved if the pathways of their formation are clearly recognized and understood. Here, we show that nanomaterial formation pathways mediated by aqueous fluids can be grouped into four major categories, abiotic and biotic processes coupled and decoupled from weathering processes. These can be subdivided in 18 subcategories relevant to the critical zone, and environments such as ocean hydrothermal vents and the upper mantle. Similarly, pathways in the gas phase such as volcanic fumaroles, wildfires and particle formation in the stratosphere and troposphere can be grouped into two major groups and five subcategories. In the most fundamental sense, both aqueous-fluid and gaseous pathways provide an understanding of the formation of all minerals which are inherently based on nanoscale precursors and reactions. The formation of nanomaterials in aqueous fluids can be explained by four different pathways: formation by biotic and abiotic processes, coupled and decoupled with weathering processes. In the Earth’s critical zone, these pathways can be classified into 18 subcategories based on the surrounding environment.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11530374/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142567804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.
{"title":"Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown","authors":"Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x","url":null,"abstract":"The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Xuqian Li, Qingxiang Li, Martin Wild, Phil Jones
Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown. Estimated changes in the energy balance at the Earth’s surface are consistent with observations of ocean heat content and have been relatively stable between about 1960 to 1995 with an intensification thereafter, suggest estimates of the surface energy imbalance with Bayesian model averaging and up-to-date observations.
{"title":"An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century","authors":"Xuqian Li, Qingxiang Li, Martin Wild, Phil Jones","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z","url":null,"abstract":"Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown. Estimated changes in the energy balance at the Earth’s surface are consistent with observations of ocean heat content and have been relatively stable between about 1960 to 1995 with an intensification thereafter, suggest estimates of the surface energy imbalance with Bayesian model averaging and up-to-date observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01802-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w
Sören Drabesch, Oliver J. Lechtenfeld, Esmira Bibaj, José M. León Ninin, Juan Lezama Pachecco, Scott Fendorf, Britta Planer-Friedrich, Andreas Kappler, E. Marie Muehe
Climate change and metals independently stress soil microbiomes, but their combined effects remain unresolved. Here we show that future climate affects soil cadmium through altered soil microbiome and nutrient cycles, with soil pH as critical factor. In soils with pH<7 and during summer temperatures, future climate increased porewater cadmium, shifting total and potentially active taxonomic microbiome structures. Microbial ammonium oxidation released protons liberating cadmium through cation exchange from mineral surfaces. When porewater cadmium levels became toxic to non-cadmium-tolerant bacteria, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling decreased, reducing carbon and nitrogen emissions. In contrast, pH>7 soil show no climate impacts on cadmium mobilization, though imprints on microbiome structure were apparent. Subsequent nutrient cycling increased under future climate, stimulating soil respiration and nitrous oxide release. These findings underscore complex interactions between climate change and soil contaminants affecting the soil microbiome and its activity and highlights potential impacts on crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback. Complex interactions between future climate, soil microbiome, and soil cadmium negatively impact microbial activity and nutrient cycling in soil with pH below 7, which potentially affects crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback, according to a series of laboratory experiments conducted with sampled soil.
{"title":"Climate induced microbiome alterations increase cadmium bioavailability in agricultural soils with pH below 7","authors":"Sören Drabesch, Oliver J. Lechtenfeld, Esmira Bibaj, José M. León Ninin, Juan Lezama Pachecco, Scott Fendorf, Britta Planer-Friedrich, Andreas Kappler, E. Marie Muehe","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and metals independently stress soil microbiomes, but their combined effects remain unresolved. Here we show that future climate affects soil cadmium through altered soil microbiome and nutrient cycles, with soil pH as critical factor. In soils with pH<7 and during summer temperatures, future climate increased porewater cadmium, shifting total and potentially active taxonomic microbiome structures. Microbial ammonium oxidation released protons liberating cadmium through cation exchange from mineral surfaces. When porewater cadmium levels became toxic to non-cadmium-tolerant bacteria, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling decreased, reducing carbon and nitrogen emissions. In contrast, pH>7 soil show no climate impacts on cadmium mobilization, though imprints on microbiome structure were apparent. Subsequent nutrient cycling increased under future climate, stimulating soil respiration and nitrous oxide release. These findings underscore complex interactions between climate change and soil contaminants affecting the soil microbiome and its activity and highlights potential impacts on crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback. Complex interactions between future climate, soil microbiome, and soil cadmium negatively impact microbial activity and nutrient cycling in soil with pH below 7, which potentially affects crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback, according to a series of laboratory experiments conducted with sampled soil.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01794-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6
Filomena Silva, Ramia Al Bakain, Gilles Pradeau, Mathieu Ben Braham, Jelena Prtorić, Nassim Ait-Mouheb, Elena Gomez, Patrick Allard
Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. We argue that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress. Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. This Comment argues that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress.
{"title":"Protection over restoration to ensure water sustainability","authors":"Filomena Silva, Ramia Al Bakain, Gilles Pradeau, Mathieu Ben Braham, Jelena Prtorić, Nassim Ait-Mouheb, Elena Gomez, Patrick Allard","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6","url":null,"abstract":"Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. We argue that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress. Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. This Comment argues that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01798-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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