Pub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5
Jonathan P. Rosser, Ricarda Winkelmann, Nico Wunderling
The Earth’s climate is a complex system including key components such as the Arctic Summer Sea Ice and the El Niño Southern Oscillation alongside climate tipping elements including polar ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and the Amazon rainforest. Crossing thresholds of these elements can lead to a qualitatively different climate state, endangering human societies. The cryosphere elements are vulnerable at current levels of global warming (1.3 °C) while also having long response times and large uncertainties. We assess the impact of interacting Earth system components on tipping risks using an established conceptual network model of these components. Polar ice sheets (Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets) are most decisive for tipping likelihoods and cascading effects within our model. At a global warming level of 1.5 °C, neglecting the polar ice sheets can alter the expected number of tipped elements by more than a factor of 2. This is concerning as overshooting 1.5 °C of global warming is becoming inevitable, while current state-of-the-art IPCC-type models do not (yet) include dynamic ice sheets. Our results suggest that polar ice sheets are critical to improving understanding of tipping risks and cascading effects. Therefore, improved observations and integrated model development are crucial. The polar ice sheets are key contributors to the uncertainty of future climate change projection, according to an analysis using an Earth system network model to assess the contribution of six Earth system components at 1.5 and 4.0 °C of warming.
{"title":"Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections","authors":"Jonathan P. Rosser, Ricarda Winkelmann, Nico Wunderling","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5","url":null,"abstract":"The Earth’s climate is a complex system including key components such as the Arctic Summer Sea Ice and the El Niño Southern Oscillation alongside climate tipping elements including polar ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and the Amazon rainforest. Crossing thresholds of these elements can lead to a qualitatively different climate state, endangering human societies. The cryosphere elements are vulnerable at current levels of global warming (1.3 °C) while also having long response times and large uncertainties. We assess the impact of interacting Earth system components on tipping risks using an established conceptual network model of these components. Polar ice sheets (Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets) are most decisive for tipping likelihoods and cascading effects within our model. At a global warming level of 1.5 °C, neglecting the polar ice sheets can alter the expected number of tipped elements by more than a factor of 2. This is concerning as overshooting 1.5 °C of global warming is becoming inevitable, while current state-of-the-art IPCC-type models do not (yet) include dynamic ice sheets. Our results suggest that polar ice sheets are critical to improving understanding of tipping risks and cascading effects. Therefore, improved observations and integrated model development are crucial. The polar ice sheets are key contributors to the uncertainty of future climate change projection, according to an analysis using an Earth system network model to assess the contribution of six Earth system components at 1.5 and 4.0 °C of warming.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01799-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142754204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01918-2
Ernie I. H. Lee, Heidi Nepf
{"title":"Author Correction: Marsh restoration in front of seawalls is an economically justified nature-based solution for coastal protection","authors":"Ernie I. H. Lee, Heidi Nepf","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01918-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01918-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01918-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142754217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01896-5
Giacomo Traversa, Biagio Di Mauro
The penetration of shortwave radiation beneath glacier surfaces has the potential to induce melting leading to the formation of a porous white layer commonly known as weathering crust. Very little is known about its role in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we provide unprecedented observational evidence for the weathering crust formation over blue ice areas of ice shelves of the Northern Victoria Land in austral summer 2022–2023, by means of in-situ and remote-sensing observations. Then, we estimated the radiative impact of the weathering crust, demonstrating a predominant negative albedo feedback over blue ice areas (on 93% of the study area), with respect to positive melt-albedo feedback (supraglacial-pond formation). Furthermore, weathering crust occurred after a period of increasing temperature, relative humidity, low wind speed and clear sky conditions. Moreover, we claim that this new process should be included in regional climate modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Weathering crust formation over blue ice areas of ice shelves may lead to negative albedo feedback in Antarctic coasts, according to in-situ and remote-sensing observations.
{"title":"Weathering crust formation outpaces melt-albedo feedback on blue ice shelves of East Antarctica","authors":"Giacomo Traversa, Biagio Di Mauro","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01896-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01896-5","url":null,"abstract":"The penetration of shortwave radiation beneath glacier surfaces has the potential to induce melting leading to the formation of a porous white layer commonly known as weathering crust. Very little is known about its role in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we provide unprecedented observational evidence for the weathering crust formation over blue ice areas of ice shelves of the Northern Victoria Land in austral summer 2022–2023, by means of in-situ and remote-sensing observations. Then, we estimated the radiative impact of the weathering crust, demonstrating a predominant negative albedo feedback over blue ice areas (on 93% of the study area), with respect to positive melt-albedo feedback (supraglacial-pond formation). Furthermore, weathering crust occurred after a period of increasing temperature, relative humidity, low wind speed and clear sky conditions. Moreover, we claim that this new process should be included in regional climate modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Weathering crust formation over blue ice areas of ice shelves may lead to negative albedo feedback in Antarctic coasts, according to in-situ and remote-sensing observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01896-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142754190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01844-3
Merja Elo, Santtu Kareksela, Otso Ovaskainen, Nerea Abrego, Jenni Niku, Sara Taskinen, Kaisu Aapala, Janne S. Kotiaho
Ecosystem restoration will increase following the ambitious international targets, which calls for a rigorous evaluation of restoration effectiveness. Here, we present results from a long-term before-after control-impact experiment on the restoration of forestry-drained boreal peatland ecosystems. Our data comprise 151 sites, representing six ecosystem types. Species-level vegetation sampling has been conducted before, two, five, and ten years after restoration. With joint species distribution modelling, we show that, on average, not restoring leads to further degradation, but restoration stops and reverses this trend. The variation in restoration outcomes largely arises from ecosystem types: restoration of nutrient-poor ecosystems has a higher probability of failure. Yet, the ten-year study period is insufficient to capture the restoration effects in slow-recovering ecosystems. Altogether, restoration can effectively halt the biodiversity loss of degraded ecosystems, although ecosystem attributes affect the outcome. This variability in outcomes underlies the need for evidence-based prioritization of restoration efforts across ecosystems. Restoration halts and reverses degradation of boreal peatlands in nutrient-rich ecosystems, though the impact may be weak in nutrient-poor ones, according to a long-term experiment in Finland comprising 151 sites and 6 ecosystem types
{"title":"Restoration of forestry-drained boreal peatland ecosystems can effectively stop and reverse ecosystem degradation","authors":"Merja Elo, Santtu Kareksela, Otso Ovaskainen, Nerea Abrego, Jenni Niku, Sara Taskinen, Kaisu Aapala, Janne S. Kotiaho","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01844-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01844-3","url":null,"abstract":"Ecosystem restoration will increase following the ambitious international targets, which calls for a rigorous evaluation of restoration effectiveness. Here, we present results from a long-term before-after control-impact experiment on the restoration of forestry-drained boreal peatland ecosystems. Our data comprise 151 sites, representing six ecosystem types. Species-level vegetation sampling has been conducted before, two, five, and ten years after restoration. With joint species distribution modelling, we show that, on average, not restoring leads to further degradation, but restoration stops and reverses this trend. The variation in restoration outcomes largely arises from ecosystem types: restoration of nutrient-poor ecosystems has a higher probability of failure. Yet, the ten-year study period is insufficient to capture the restoration effects in slow-recovering ecosystems. Altogether, restoration can effectively halt the biodiversity loss of degraded ecosystems, although ecosystem attributes affect the outcome. This variability in outcomes underlies the need for evidence-based prioritization of restoration efforts across ecosystems. Restoration halts and reverses degradation of boreal peatlands in nutrient-rich ecosystems, though the impact may be weak in nutrient-poor ones, according to a long-term experiment in Finland comprising 151 sites and 6 ecosystem types","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11599035/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142750260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01858-x
Kseniia Safonova, H. E. Markus Meier, Matthias Gröger
{"title":"Author Correction: Summer heatwaves on the Baltic Sea seabed contribute to oxygen deficiency in shallow areas","authors":"Kseniia Safonova, H. E. Markus Meier, Matthias Gröger","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01858-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01858-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-3"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01858-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142694859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01910-w
Lingyu Zhang, Fei Jiang, Wei He, Mousong Wu, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, Hengmao Wang, Yongguang Zhang, Stephen Sitch, Jing M. Chen
Accurate national terrestrial net ecosystem exchange estimates are crucial for the global stocktake. Net ecosystem exchange estimates from different inversion models vary greatly at national scale, and the relative impacts of prior fluxes and observations on these inversions remain unclear. Here we estimate the net ecosystem exchange of 51 land regions for the 2017-2019 period, focusing on the 10 largest countries, using prior fluxes from 12 terrestrial biosphere models and XCO2 retrievals from GOSAT and OCO-2 satellites as constraints. The average uncertainty reduction for the 10 countries increases from 37% with GOSAT and 45% with OCO-2 to 50% with combined observations, indicating a trend towards robust estimates. At finer spatial scales, even with combined observations, the uncertainty reduction is only 33%, i.e., the prior flux dominates the estimates. This finding underscores the critical importance of integrating multi-source observations and refining prior fluxes to improve the accuracy of carbon flux estimates. Choice of ecosystem model and input satellite data has a significant impact on modelled carbon dioxide flux and its associated uncertainty for large countries, according to atmospheric inversions using GOSAT and OCO-2 data.
{"title":"Improved estimates of net ecosystem exchanges in mega-countries using GOSAT and OCO-2 observations","authors":"Lingyu Zhang, Fei Jiang, Wei He, Mousong Wu, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, Hengmao Wang, Yongguang Zhang, Stephen Sitch, Jing M. Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01910-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01910-w","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate national terrestrial net ecosystem exchange estimates are crucial for the global stocktake. Net ecosystem exchange estimates from different inversion models vary greatly at national scale, and the relative impacts of prior fluxes and observations on these inversions remain unclear. Here we estimate the net ecosystem exchange of 51 land regions for the 2017-2019 period, focusing on the 10 largest countries, using prior fluxes from 12 terrestrial biosphere models and XCO2 retrievals from GOSAT and OCO-2 satellites as constraints. The average uncertainty reduction for the 10 countries increases from 37% with GOSAT and 45% with OCO-2 to 50% with combined observations, indicating a trend towards robust estimates. At finer spatial scales, even with combined observations, the uncertainty reduction is only 33%, i.e., the prior flux dominates the estimates. This finding underscores the critical importance of integrating multi-source observations and refining prior fluxes to improve the accuracy of carbon flux estimates. Choice of ecosystem model and input satellite data has a significant impact on modelled carbon dioxide flux and its associated uncertainty for large countries, according to atmospheric inversions using GOSAT and OCO-2 data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01910-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142694870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01900-y
Jiwon Kim, Jacob Ladenburg
Carbon capture and storage is vital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, albeit research on the public willingness to pay for it remains limited. Here we address this gap by considering information effects, development magnitude effects and prior familiarity relations on willingness to pay towards carbon capture and storage. Based on national-wide online survey targeting Danish public, conducted from June to August 2022, the contingent valuation method is employed. The study reveals that, irrespective of CO2 reduction goals, enhancing familiarity with carbon capture storage can influence public support. Additionally, we estimate willingness to pay elasticities related to development magnitude using a scope test, ensuring economic significance and validity of our findings. Ultimately, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, supporting and enabling the design of effective strategies to promote public support for carbon capture and storage, and contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts. Regardless of Denmark’s carbon dioxide emission reduction goal, knowledge and familiarity influence public support and willingness to pay for carbon capture and storage, according to an online survey and econometric model analysis.
{"title":"Public demand for carbon capture and storage varies with information, development magnitude and prior familiarity","authors":"Jiwon Kim, Jacob Ladenburg","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01900-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01900-y","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon capture and storage is vital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, albeit research on the public willingness to pay for it remains limited. Here we address this gap by considering information effects, development magnitude effects and prior familiarity relations on willingness to pay towards carbon capture and storage. Based on national-wide online survey targeting Danish public, conducted from June to August 2022, the contingent valuation method is employed. The study reveals that, irrespective of CO2 reduction goals, enhancing familiarity with carbon capture storage can influence public support. Additionally, we estimate willingness to pay elasticities related to development magnitude using a scope test, ensuring economic significance and validity of our findings. Ultimately, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, supporting and enabling the design of effective strategies to promote public support for carbon capture and storage, and contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts. Regardless of Denmark’s carbon dioxide emission reduction goal, knowledge and familiarity influence public support and willingness to pay for carbon capture and storage, according to an online survey and econometric model analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01900-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142754200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01884-9
Sophie Opfergelt, François Gaspard, Catherine Hirst, Laurence Monin, Bennet Juhls, Anne Morgenstern, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin
The ice-covered period of large Arctic rivers is shortening. To what extent will this affect biogeochemical processing of nutrients? Here we reveal, with silicon isotopes (δ30Si), a key winter pathway for nutrients under river ice. During colder winter phases in the Lena River catchment, conditions are met for frazil ice accumulation, which creates microzones. These are conducive to a lengthened reaction time for biogeochemical processes under ice. The heavier δ30Si values (3.5 ± 0.5 ‰) in river water reflect that 39 ± 11% of the Lena River discharge went through these microzones. Freezing-driven amorphous silica precipitation concomitant to increased ammonium concentration and changes in dissolved organic carbon aromaticity in Lena River water support microbially mediated processing of nutrients in the microzones. Upon warming, suppressing loci for winter intra-river nitrogen processing is likely to modify the balance between N2O production and consumption, a greenhouse gas with a large global warming potential. Frazil ice accumulation during winter creates micro-zones in the Lena River catchment that prolong reaction time for biogeochemical processing of nutrients under ice, according to a high resolution silicon isotope study.
{"title":"Frazil ice changes winter biogeochemical processes in the Lena River","authors":"Sophie Opfergelt, François Gaspard, Catherine Hirst, Laurence Monin, Bennet Juhls, Anne Morgenstern, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01884-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01884-9","url":null,"abstract":"The ice-covered period of large Arctic rivers is shortening. To what extent will this affect biogeochemical processing of nutrients? Here we reveal, with silicon isotopes (δ30Si), a key winter pathway for nutrients under river ice. During colder winter phases in the Lena River catchment, conditions are met for frazil ice accumulation, which creates microzones. These are conducive to a lengthened reaction time for biogeochemical processes under ice. The heavier δ30Si values (3.5 ± 0.5 ‰) in river water reflect that 39 ± 11% of the Lena River discharge went through these microzones. Freezing-driven amorphous silica precipitation concomitant to increased ammonium concentration and changes in dissolved organic carbon aromaticity in Lena River water support microbially mediated processing of nutrients in the microzones. Upon warming, suppressing loci for winter intra-river nitrogen processing is likely to modify the balance between N2O production and consumption, a greenhouse gas with a large global warming potential. Frazil ice accumulation during winter creates micro-zones in the Lena River catchment that prolong reaction time for biogeochemical processing of nutrients under ice, according to a high resolution silicon isotope study.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01884-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142694858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01902-w
Bastien Parisy, Niels M. Schmidt, Alyssa R. Cirtwill, Edith Villa-Galaviz, Mikko Tiusanen, Cornelya F. C. Klütsch, Paul E. Aspholm, Katrine Raundrup, Eero J. Vesterinen, Helena Wirta, Tomas Roslin
Global environmental change may lead to changes in community structure and in species interactions, ultimately changing ecosystem functioning. Focusing on spatial variation in fungus–plant interactions across the rapidly changing Arctic, we quantified variation in the identity of interaction partners. We then related interaction turnover to variation in the bioclimatic environment by combining network analyses with general dissimilarity modelling. Overall, we found species associations to be highly plastic, with major rewiring among interaction partners across variable environmental conditions. Of this turnover, a major part was attributed to specific environmental properties which are likely to change with progressing climate change. Our findings suggest that the current structure of plant-root associated interactions may be severely altered by rapidly advancing global warming. Nonetheless, flexibility in partner choice may contribute to the resilience of the system. Fungus-plant interactions in the Arctic are highly pliable and can alter under changing temperature and soil conditions, according to modelling of plant and fungal communities using DNA metabarcoding data.
{"title":"Arctic plant-fungus interaction networks show major rewiring with environmental variation","authors":"Bastien Parisy, Niels M. Schmidt, Alyssa R. Cirtwill, Edith Villa-Galaviz, Mikko Tiusanen, Cornelya F. C. Klütsch, Paul E. Aspholm, Katrine Raundrup, Eero J. Vesterinen, Helena Wirta, Tomas Roslin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01902-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01902-w","url":null,"abstract":"Global environmental change may lead to changes in community structure and in species interactions, ultimately changing ecosystem functioning. Focusing on spatial variation in fungus–plant interactions across the rapidly changing Arctic, we quantified variation in the identity of interaction partners. We then related interaction turnover to variation in the bioclimatic environment by combining network analyses with general dissimilarity modelling. Overall, we found species associations to be highly plastic, with major rewiring among interaction partners across variable environmental conditions. Of this turnover, a major part was attributed to specific environmental properties which are likely to change with progressing climate change. Our findings suggest that the current structure of plant-root associated interactions may be severely altered by rapidly advancing global warming. Nonetheless, flexibility in partner choice may contribute to the resilience of the system. Fungus-plant interactions in the Arctic are highly pliable and can alter under changing temperature and soil conditions, according to modelling of plant and fungal communities using DNA metabarcoding data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01902-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142694862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01890-x
Zhiqi Yang, Michael J. DeFlorio, Agniv Sengupta, Jiabao Wang, Christopher M. Castellano, Alexander Gershunov, Kristen Guirguis, Emily Slinskey, Bin Guan, Luca Delle Monache, F. Martin Ralph
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of intense water vapor transport, shaping precipitation, floods, and economies. Temporal clustering of ARs tripled losses compared to isolated events, yet the reasons behind this clustering remain unclear. AR orientation further modulates hydrological impacts through terrain interaction. Here we identify unique ARs over the North Pacific and Western U.S. and utilize Cox regression and composite analysis to examine how six major climate modes influence temporal clustering of unique ARs and orientation during extended boreal winter (November to March). Results show that climate modes condition temporal clustering of unique ARs. The Pacific-North American weather pattern strongly modulates the clustering over the Western U.S. from early to late winter. The quasi-biennial oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation affect late winter clustering, while the Arctic oscillation dominates early winter. Climate modes also strongly influence AR orientation, with ENSO particularly affecting the orientation of temporally clustered ARs. The Pacific-North American weather pattern significantly influences unique atmospheric river temporal clustering in the Western U.S., with quasi-biennial oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation affecting late winter clustering and Arctic oscillation dominating early winter, according to analysis of six climate modes’ influence on unique atmospheric river clustering.
大气河流（ARs）是强烈水汽输送的狭窄走廊，影响着降水、洪水和经济。与孤立事件相比，AR 的时间集群使损失增加了两倍，但这种集群背后的原因仍不清楚。AR 方向通过地形相互作用进一步调节水文影响。在此，我们确定了北太平洋和美国西部的独特 AR，并利用考克斯回归和综合分析来研究六种主要气候模式如何在延长的北方冬季（11 月至次年 3 月）影响独特 AR 的时间集群和方向。结果表明，气候模式对独特 AR 的时间聚类有影响。从初冬到晚冬，太平洋-北美天气模式对美国西部的集群有强烈的调节作用。准两年涛动和太平洋十年涛动影响冬末集群，而北极涛动则主导冬初集群。气候模式也强烈影响着AR的方向，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动尤其影响着时间上聚集的AR的方向。根据六种气候模式对美国西部独特的大气河流时间聚类的影响分析，太平洋-北美气候模式对美国西部独特的大气河流时间聚类有显著影响，准双年性涛动和太平洋十年涛动影响晚冬的聚类，而北极涛动主导早冬的聚类。
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