Managing eutrophication is particularly challenging in lake chains where surface water flows from one lake to another. In such longitudinal surface-water connected systems, nutrient-enriched water from upstream lakes can exacerbate nutrient-related issues in less enriched downstream lakes. Inflow diversion offers a potential management strategy by reducing the transfer of nutrient-enriched waters from upstream to downstream lakes; however, its effectiveness remains unclear. We present a modelling study of two surface-water connected lakes in New Zealand: mesotrophic Lake Rotoiti, which receives water from eutrophic Lake Rotorua, and an in-lake diversion wall in Lake Rotoiti designed to protect its water quality by redirecting Rotorua-derived water to its only outflow. We assessed the wall's effectiveness by calibrating 3D hydrodynamic and hydrodynamic-ecological lake models to simulate the impacts of its hypothetical removal on lake hydrodynamics and water quality, thereby informing management decisions aimed at protecting Lake Rotoiti. Scenario simulations revealed the wall to be effective in reducing the propagation and accumulation of inflow water in the lake and consequently extending the lake's residence time threefold. Simulations also indicated that removal of the wall would lead to moderate and mixed water quality changes, including small increases in total nitrogen and chlorophyll a, and decreases in total phosphorus, even when Lake Rotorua met its water quality targets. From a management perspective, our findings highlight both the challenges and opportunities of managing longitudinal surface-water connected systems. Further, they emphasise the need for coordinated management strategies and aligned water quality targets to achieve optimal management outcomes across such systems.
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