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Where Will Commoditization Take Us? 商品化将把我们带向何方?
Pub Date : 2008-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1287500
A. Holmes, John Ryan
Predicting the future is an imprecise science, and something that should always be carried out carefully and the results should be taken with a pinch of salt. That said it is sensible to assume that most of the drivers of commoditization are likely to remain in force for the foreseeable future. Unlike the futurologists who attempt to predict how society and technology will change over the next fifty years, we are only going to look a few years ahead, which is a more sensible time horizon. History is not always a good predictor of the future, but in the case of commoditization we think it is. It is clear that when we look back in time we can see how the process of commoditization has subsumed great tranches of industry, eliminated significant numbers of manual labourers and increased the general efficiency and effectiveness of society. In many respects we could argue that it was important to the advancement of the industrialised economies of the West. In projecting forward from this point, we should expect commoditization to continue to expand its footprint into areas which we currently think are outside of the realms of possibility. After all, no one would have expected the IT industry to have become so commoditized when it first emerged during the 1940s. And in the same way that white collar workers were caught out when they believed they were immune from the initial waves of downsizing and offshoring that affected the manufacturing sector, others at the mid- and high-end of the workforce may also be caught out sometime in the future. And as commoditization continues to advance it will touch on many more peoples' lives and livelihoods.
预测未来是一门不精确的科学,应该一直小心翼翼地进行,结果也应该有所保留。也就是说,我们可以合理地假设,在可预见的未来,商品化的大多数驱动因素可能会继续发挥作用。与那些试图预测未来50年社会和技术将如何变化的未来学家不同,我们只会展望未来几年,这是一个更合理的时间范围。历史并不总是能很好地预测未来,但在商品化的情况下,我们认为它是。很明显,当我们回顾过去的时候,我们可以看到商品化的过程是如何包含了大量的工业,消除了大量的体力劳动者,提高了社会的总体效率和效益。在许多方面,我们可以说,它对西方工业化经济的发展是重要的。从这一点出发,我们应该期待商品化将继续扩大其足迹,进入我们目前认为不可能的领域。毕竟,当IT行业在20世纪40年代首次出现时,没有人会预料到它会变得如此商品化。在最初影响制造业的裁员和离岸外包浪潮中,白领工人自以为不受影响,结果却陷入困境,同样,其他中高端劳动力也可能在未来某个时候陷入困境。随着商品化的不断推进,它将触及更多人的生活和生计。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in the Portfolio Allocation of Private Colleges' Endowments: Recent Trends and Implications for Relative Investment Performance 私立大学捐赠基金组合配置的变化:近期趋势及其对相对投资绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2008-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1339890
Donald L. Basch
Over the past fifteen years, many U.S. colleges have engaged in a substantial reallocation of their endowment investment portfolios, reducing the share allocated to U.S. stocks and bonds and raising the share allocated to alternatives investments including hedge funds, venture capital, private equity, natural resources, and real estate. The present study, while affirming the presence of an overall reallocation trend, emphasizes the variation that exists among colleges in the extent of reallocation and its impact on investment performance. As has been widely reported, more highly-endowed private colleges have tended to move earlier and more extensively to an alternatives allocation. That pattern has persisted from 1995 to 2007 with some evidence of an increasing divergence among colleges of different endowment sizes in their alternatives allocation. Also as has been widely reported, more highly-endowed private colleges have tended to earn higher cumulative investment returns than less highly-endowed private colleges from 1995 to 2007. Dividing the overall time period into three four-year periods, this tendency is more apparent from 2000 to 2003 and from 2004 to 2007 and less apparent (though still present to a more limited degree) from 1996 to 1999. Some of the impact of endowment size is realized through more highly-endowed colleges' tendency to invest more extensively in alternative assets. Investing more highly in alternatives has a positive effect from 2000 to 2003 and from 2004 to 2007 but actually tends to suppress investment returns from 1996 to 1999. Thus, any analysis of the impact of endowment size and alternatives allocation on investment returns must be sensitive to variation across different years.
在过去的15年里,许多美国大学对其捐赠基金投资组合进行了大量的重新配置,减少了分配给美国股票和债券的份额,增加了分配给另类投资的份额,包括对冲基金、风险资本、私募股权、自然资源和房地产。本研究在肯定总体再配置趋势存在的同时,强调了高校之间在再配置程度及其对投资绩效的影响方面存在的差异。正如广泛报道的那样,更多的高捐赠私立大学倾向于更早、更广泛地转向另一种分配方式。这种模式从1995年一直持续到2007年,有一些证据表明,不同捐赠规模的大学在选择分配方面的分歧越来越大。此外,正如广泛报道的那样,从1995年到2007年,捐赠额较高的私立大学往往比捐赠额较低的私立大学获得更高的累计投资回报。将整个时间段划分为三个四年期,这种趋势在2000年至2003年和2004年至2007年期间更为明显,而在1996年至1999年期间则不那么明显(尽管在更有限的程度上仍然存在)。捐赠规模的一些影响是通过捐赠越多的大学倾向于更广泛地投资于另类资产来实现的。在2000年至2003年和2004年至2007年期间,对另类投资的高度投资具有积极影响,但实际上倾向于抑制1996年至1999年期间的投资回报。因此,任何对禀赋规模和替代方案配置对投资回报影响的分析都必须对不同年份的变化敏感。
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引用次数: 1
Students and Video Game Players 学生和电子游戏玩家
Pub Date : 2008-08-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1302868
Moisy Magali
Some studies show that video games are used in teaching (Foreman 2004) and others report on players learning through their leisure activities online (Perriault 1987; Berry 2007), as formerly was the case through ordinary games. Even though the latter have been recognized by many researchers as leisure activities (Natkin 2003; Lafrance 2006), they were already used as learning tools (Brougere 1995, 2004). However, since the beginning of time, play has been more or less directly opposed to work (Caillois 1967; Henriot 1989). The term "work" can be related to the notion of school work for children and adolescents, and to academic work for young adults. But, if for the former, parental and teacher supervision proves to be sufficient so that game playing does not encroach too much upon school work, what are the effects when institutional and parental frameworks are less evident? Such is the situation in which most university students who play video games find themselves. In fact, recent studies mention the risk that these young adults who play on the Internet could potentially put less effort into their studies to spend more time playing on-line games (Valleur 2003; Griffiths 2004). This paper presents part of the results of a study being done for a doctoral degree in Education, using a psychoanalytically-oriented clinical approach (Blanchard-Laville, Chaussecourte, Hatchuel et Pechberty, 2005). My research analyzes students' psychological investment in video games and their game-study relationship. The objective is to show, through the in-depth analysis of three non-directive interviews done with student gamers, how video games are experienced as leisure tools, but also as learning tools at the same time. For the first two students, their intensive use of video games, which became their object of study for a time, was transformed into what we can call addictive. However, in the end this particular experience of video games permitted them to better come to know themselves. As regards the third student, video games are for her as for her mother informal tools for leisure and learning which do not conflict with her studies.
一些研究表明,电子游戏被用于教学(Foreman 2004),其他研究报告称,玩家通过在线休闲活动学习(Perriault 1987;Berry 2007),就像以前通过普通游戏一样。尽管后者已被许多研究人员认为是休闲活动(Natkin 2003;Lafrance 2006),它们已经被用作学习工具(Brougere 1995,2004)。然而,从一开始,游戏就或多或少地与工作直接对立(Caillois 1967;Henriot 1989)。“工作”一词可以与儿童和青少年的学校工作概念有关,也可以与年轻人的学术工作有关。但是,如果对于前者来说,父母和老师的监督证明是足够的,这样游戏就不会过多地侵犯学校作业,那么当制度和父母的框架不那么明显时,会产生什么影响呢?这就是大多数玩电子游戏的大学生所处的情况。事实上,最近的研究提到了这样一种风险,即上网的年轻人可能会把更少的精力放在学习上,而把更多的时间花在玩网络游戏上(Valleur 2003;格里菲思2004)。本文介绍了为获得教育学博士学位而进行的一项研究的部分结果,该研究采用了以精神分析为导向的临床方法(Blanchard-Laville, Chaussecourte, Hatchuel et Pechberty, 2005)。我的研究分析了学生对电子游戏的心理投入以及他们的游戏-学习关系。通过对学生玩家进行的三次非指导性访谈的深入分析,我们的目标是展示电子游戏是如何作为休闲工具同时也是学习工具的。对于前两名学生来说,他们对电子游戏的大量使用,一度成为他们的研究对象,已经变成了我们所说的上瘾。然而,最终这种特殊的电子游戏体验让他们更好地了解自己。至于第三个学生,电子游戏对她和她母亲来说都是休闲和学习的非正式工具,与她的学习并不冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Vocational Training and the Labour Market in Liberal and Coordinated Economies 自由和协调经济中的职业培训和劳动力市场
Pub Date : 2008-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2338.2008.00497.x
Gerhard Bosch, J. Charest
In recent decades, the differences between the education and training systems in the liberal and coordinated market economies have increased. It is not possible to understand such different developments by focusing exclusively on the internal dynamics of vocational and general education systems. Vocational education and training (VET), and particularly apprenticeship systems rather than school-based VET, are deeply embedded in the different national production, labour market, industrial relations and status systems. In order to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of VET, we examine recent developments in general and vocational training and its links to the labour and product market in five contrasting countries, namely, Denmark, Canada, Germany, Korea and the USA. In particular, differences in industrial relations, welfare states, income distribution and product markets are the main reason for the persistent high level of diversity in vocational training systems. The difference can perhaps be summarized as follows: in the coordinated market economies, the modernisation of vocational training is seen as a contribution to innovation in the economy, while in liberal market economies, it is seen as a siding into which weaker pupils can conveniently be shunted.
近几十年来,自由和协调的市场经济的教育和培训制度之间的差异有所增加。如果只关注职业教育系统和普通教育系统的内部动态,就不可能理解这些不同的发展。职业教育和培训(VET),特别是学徒制度,而不是以学校为基础的VET,深深植根于不同的国家生产、劳动力市场、劳资关系和地位制度中。为了更好地理解职业教育培训的动态,我们研究了丹麦、加拿大、德国、韩国和美国这五个对比鲜明的国家的普通和职业培训的最新发展及其与劳动力和产品市场的联系。特别是,劳资关系、福利国家、收入分配和产品市场的差异是职业培训体系持续高度多样化的主要原因。两者的区别或许可以概括如下:在协调的市场经济中,职业培训的现代化被视为对经济创新的贡献,而在自由市场经济中,它被视为一条支线,可以方便地分流较弱的学生。
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引用次数: 165
The Returns to Cognitive Abilities and Personality Traits in Germany 德国人认知能力与人格特质的回归
Pub Date : 2008-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1259705
G. Heineck, Silke Anger
We provide the first joint evidence on the relationship between individuals' cognitive abilities, their personality and earnings for Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, we employ scores from an ultra-short IQ-test and a set of measures of personality traits, namely locus of control, reciprocity and all basic items from the Five Factor Personality Inventory. Our estimates suggest a positive effect of so-called fluid intelligence or speed of cognition on males' wages only. Findings for personality traits are more heterogeneous. However, there is a robust wage penalty for an external locus of control for both men and women.
我们为德国提供了第一个关于个人认知能力、个性和收入之间关系的联合证据。利用德国社会经济小组研究的数据,我们采用了一项超短智商测试的分数和一套人格特征测量方法,即控制点、互惠性和五因素人格量表中的所有基本项目。我们的估计表明,所谓的流动智力或认知速度只对男性的工资有积极影响。关于人格特质的研究结果则更为复杂。然而,对于男性和女性来说,外部控制点都有很强的工资惩罚。
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引用次数: 513
Stemming Inequality? Employment and Pay of Female and Minority Scientists and Engineers in the Federal and Private Sectors 造成不平等吗?联邦和私营部门女性和少数族裔科学家和工程师的就业和薪酬
Pub Date : 2008-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1260398
S. Oh, Gregory B. Lewis
Objective. We test whether the increasing tendency of women, blacks, and Latinos to study science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is decreasing gender and race pay inequality in the federal civil service and the U.S. economy. Method. Using logit analysis on a one percent sample of federal personnel records for college graduates in 1983 and 2003, we examine whether unexplained gender and race pay differences have declined more rapidly for degree-holders in STEM or non-STEM fields. Using logit analysis on a five percent sample of college graduates from the 2000 Census, we examine whether unexplained gender and race pay differences are smaller in STEM or non-STEM fields in the federal and private sectors. Findings. Women and non-Asian minorities earn more, relative to comparable white men, in STEM than in non-STEM fields in both the federal and private sectors. Conclusion. Women and minorities gain even more than white men from studying STEM fields.
目标。我们测试女性、黑人和拉丁裔学习科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)的趋势是否正在减少联邦公务员和美国经济中的性别和种族薪酬不平等。方法。我们对1983年和2003年大学毕业生联邦人事记录的1%样本进行了logit分析,研究了在STEM或非STEM领域的学位持有者中,无法解释的性别和种族薪酬差异是否下降得更快。我们对2000年人口普查中5%的大学毕业生样本进行了logit分析,研究了在联邦和私营部门的STEM或非STEM领域,无法解释的性别和种族薪酬差异是否较小。发现。与白人男性相比,女性和非亚裔少数族裔在STEM领域的收入高于联邦和私营部门的非STEM领域。结论。女性和少数族裔从学习STEM领域中获得的收益甚至超过白人男性。
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引用次数: 0
R&D Spillovers in an Endogenous Growth Model with Physical Capital, Human Capital and Varieties 基于物质资本、人力资本和品种的内生增长模型中的研发溢出效应
Pub Date : 2008-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1299032
T. Sequeira
There is a family of models with Physical, Human capital and R&D for which convergence properties have been discussed (Arnold, 2000a; Gomez, 2005). However, spillovers in R&D have been ignored in this context. We introduce spillovers in this model and derive its steady-state and stability properties. This new feature implies that the model is characterized by a system of four differential equations. A unique Balanced Growth Path along with a two dimensional stable manifold are obtained under simple and reasonable conditions. Transition is oscillatory toward the steady-state for plausible values of parameters.
有一个具有物理、人力资本和研发的模型家族,其收敛特性已经被讨论过(Arnold, 2000;戈麦斯,2005)。然而,在这种背景下,研发的溢出效应一直被忽视。我们在该模型中引入了溢出效应,并推导了其稳态和稳定性性质。这个新特征意味着该模型的特征是由四个微分方程组成的系统。在简单合理的条件下,得到了唯一的平衡生长路径和二维稳定流形。对于合理的参数值,向稳态的过渡是振荡的。
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引用次数: 16
Global Campaign for Education (GCE): A Dedicated INGO (Universal Primary Education) 全球教育运动(GCE):一个专门的非政府组织(普及初等教育)
Pub Date : 2008-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1358718
J. Shrestha
To emerge from the grip of its problems, the world leaders had foreseen education as one of the main medium in addressing the problems. This paved the way to the UN Millennium Development Goal where Universal Primary Education has been its second agenda. Education brings change, development, peace and prosperity in a country. In short, it is the best solution to all. Hence, hundreds of International Non- governmental Organizations and government organizations are working hand in hand to make this dream of delivering primary education to all into a reality. One such organization working hand in hand to secure this dream has been Global Campaign for Education (GCE)- A dedicated INGO.
为了摆脱这些问题的控制,世界领导人预见到教育是解决这些问题的主要媒介之一。这为实现联合国千年发展目标铺平了道路,普及初等教育已成为其第二个议程。教育给一个国家带来变化、发展、和平与繁荣。简而言之,这是最好的解决方案。因此,数以百计的国际非政府组织和政府组织正在携手合作,使人人享有初等教育的梦想成为现实。全球教育运动组织(GCE)就是这样一个致力于实现这一梦想的非政府组织。
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引用次数: 2
Job-Related Training and Benefits for Individuals: A Review of Evidence and Explanations 职业相关培训与个人福利:证据与解释综述
Pub Date : 2008-07-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1347622
Bo Mikael Hansson
This paper reviews the literature on job-related training and the effects of these investments for different groups of individuals. The paper also elaborates on the theories, empirical explanations, and policy implications that can be drawn from these findings. Employer-provided training is by far the most important source of further education and training after an individual enters the labour market. A substantial portion of these human capital investments are financed by firms and it appears that the contribution by individuals are in most circumstances relatively modest. At the same time, substantial gains for individuals participating in training are documented in a large number of studies. The benefits are not only confined to wage returns as research has also shown that training leads to increased internal employability and job-security; and external labour market effects such as higher labour participation rates, lower unemployment, and shorter unemployment periods. Training is not equally distributed among employees. Older, low skilled workers, and to some extent female workers typically receive less training than other groups of employees. However, we do not find any clear-cut evidence that returns to training varies with gender, educational or skills levels, which suggests that inequalities do not arise because of differences in returns to training, but are more a consequence of inequalities of the distribution of training investments. The findings of this review further suggest that the returns to training are higher in the case that it is financed by the employer and that the returns to training are substantially higher for those leaving for a new employer. Employer-financed training appears, however, to lower the probability of an individual leaving for a new job elsewhere. The analysis of the distribution of returns to training reveals that although individuals benefit from these investments, the employer reaps most of the returns to training which suggests that the productivity effects are substantially larger than wage effects.
本文回顾了有关职业相关培训的文献,以及这些投资对不同人群的影响。本文还详细阐述了从这些发现中可以得出的理论、实证解释和政策含义。在个人进入劳动力市场后,雇主提供的培训是最重要的继续教育和培训来源。这些人力资本投资的很大一部分是由公司提供的,在大多数情况下,个人的贡献似乎相对较小。与此同时,大量研究表明,参加培训的个人获得了可观的收益。好处不仅限于工资回报,研究还表明,培训可以提高内部就业能力和工作保障;以及外部劳动力市场效应,如更高的劳动参与率、更低的失业率和更短的失业期。培训在员工之间分配不均。年龄较大、技能较低的工人,以及在某种程度上是女性工人,通常比其他群体的雇员接受的培训要少。然而,我们没有发现任何明确的证据表明培训回报因性别、教育或技能水平而异,这表明不平等不是由于培训回报的差异而产生的,而更多地是培训投资分配不平等的结果。这项审查的结果进一步表明,由雇主资助的培训的回报更高,而离开雇主去找新雇主的培训的回报要高得多。然而,雇主资助的培训似乎降低了个人跳槽的可能性。对培训回报分布的分析表明,尽管个人从这些投资中受益,但雇主获得了大部分培训回报,这表明生产率效应远远大于工资效应。
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引用次数: 59
The Individual Impacts of Commoditization 商品化对个人的影响
Pub Date : 2008-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1156179
A. Holmes, R. John
The process of commoditization has now entered its most significant phase. White collar work long the preserve of the educated elite is now going undergoing a significant transformation as it starts to commoditize. The principal impacts on the white collar employee include: One company, but many owners as the impacts of foreign ownership, buy-outs by private equity and takeovers by rivals continue to change the pattern of company ownership as well as employment. Few of us can expect to remain within a single company that retains its ownership for a lengthy period of time and with this comes additional uncertainty and insecurity The potential for most if not every white collar job being at risk from commoditization; perhaps not now, but certainly in the future. Remember, any job that can be codified is potentially at risk An increase in low level, routine work at the expense of the intrinsically interesting work most white collar workers have come to expect. This does not necessarily mean that work will be any less pressured. Evidence is pointing to the intensification of routine white collar work which is becoming more demanding not less. The loss of an obvious career path making it much harder to navigate through your working life. This is further compounded by the weakening of the relationship between education and employability which has until very recently been central to a successful career Economic instability and income stagnation as the China Price moves to the white collar labour market.
商品化的进程现在进入了最重要的阶段。白领工作长期以来一直是受过良好教育的精英的领地,随着它开始商品化,它正在经历一场重大变革。对白领员工的主要影响包括:一个公司,但许多所有者,因为外资所有权、私人股本收购和竞争对手收购的影响继续改变公司所有权和就业模式。我们中很少有人能指望长期呆在一家保留所有权的公司里,随之而来的是额外的不确定性和不安全感。也许不是现在,但肯定是将来。记住,任何可以被编纂的工作都有潜在的风险:低水平的常规工作的增加,以牺牲大多数白领工人所期望的内在有趣的工作为代价。这并不一定意味着工作压力会减轻。有证据表明,白领的日常工作正在加强,要求越来越高,而不是越来越低。失去一条明确的职业道路会让你的工作生活更加难以驾驭。直到最近,教育和就业能力之间的关系一直是成功职业生涯的核心,而随着中国价格向白领劳动力市场转移,经济不稳定和收入停滞,这进一步加剧了这种情况。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Labor: Human Capital
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