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Vertical and spatial differences in ozone formation sensitivities under different ozone pollution levels in eastern Chinese cities 中国东部城市不同臭氧污染水平下臭氧形成敏感性的垂直和空间差异
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00855-3
Zhuang Wang, Hao Zhang, Chune Shi, Xianguang Ji, Yizhi Zhu, Congzi Xia, Xiaoyun Sun, Meng Zhang, Xinfeng Lin, Shaowei Yan, Yuan Zhou, Chengzhi Xing, Yujia Chen, Cheng Liu

Ozone is the primary air pollutant in eastern China during the warm season. Clarifying the differences in the spatio–temporal evolution of the ozone formation sensitivity between ozone polluted days and clean air days is key for the precise formulation of ozone prevention policies. By combining ground–and satellite–based remote sensing with ground station observations, we identified large spatio–temporal differences in the ozone formation sensitivity in eastern Chinese cities under different ozone pollution levels. Diurnally, the NO2 concentration was higher in the morning and lower at noon on the ozone exceedance days. The HCHO concentration was higher throughout the day, and the transition limited regime or NOx–limited regime contributed more to the ozone formation sensitivity on the ozone exceedance days. Vertically, the ratio of HCHO to NO2 (FNR) was higher on ozone exceedance days, and the contributions of NOx–limited regime at 0–2 km and the transition limited regime at 0–1 km on ozone exceedance days increased considerably. Spatially, HCHO in the North China Plain and middle–lower Yangtze River Plain was significantly increased on ozone exceedance days, while the NO2 concentration in the southeast hills was increased on ozone exceedance days. The difference in FNR values between northern and southern cities in eastern China on O3 exceedance days narrowed, and the ozone formation sensitivity in eastern China tended to be under a transition limited regime. The shifts in the ozone formation sensitivity under different ozone pollution levels implies that controlling only one of the precursors cannot achieve the best O3 prevention effect, and the most appropriate ratio of O3 precursor emission reductions should be designed according to ozone formation sensitivity in the different regions.

臭氧是中国东部暖季主要的大气污染物。明确臭氧污染日与清洁日臭氧形成敏感性的时空演化差异,是准确制定臭氧防治政策的关键。通过地星遥感与地面站观测相结合,发现不同臭氧污染水平下中国东部城市臭氧形成敏感性存在较大时空差异。臭氧超标日NO2浓度以上午高中午低为主;在臭氧超标日,HCHO浓度全天较高,过渡限制状态或nox限制状态对臭氧形成敏感性贡献较大。垂直方向上,臭氧超标日HCHO / NO2 (FNR)比值较高,0 ~ 2 km区间nox限制和0 ~ 1 km过渡限制对臭氧超标日的贡献显著增加。从空间上看,华北平原和长江中下游平原的HCHO在臭氧超标日显著增加,东南丘陵NO2浓度在臭氧超标日显著增加。东部城市臭氧超限日FNR值差异缩小,东部地区臭氧形成敏感性处于过渡性有限状态。不同臭氧污染水平下臭氧形成敏感性的变化表明,仅控制一种前体不能达到最佳的O3防治效果,应根据不同地区臭氧形成敏感性设计最合适的O3前体减排比例。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Tibetan plateau warming amplification on the interannual variations in East Asia Summer precipitation 青藏高原变暖放大对东亚夏季降水年际变化的影响
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00920-5
XiaoJing Jia, XinHai Chen, Wei Dong, Hao Ma, JingWen Ge, QiFeng Qian

The amplified warming on the Tibetan Plateau (TA) is a distinctive characteristic of global climate change, leading to various climate responses with far-reaching implications. This study investigates the influence of interannual variation of TA on summer precipitation over East Asia (Pre_EA) using observational data and a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). When TA exceeds the Northern Hemisphere average, summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley significantly decreases, while it increases in North China and South China, resulting in a tripole Pre_EA pattern. Notably, the relationship between TA and Pre_EA is independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and explains more variance in Pre_EA than ENSO. Our analysis reveals that TA enhances the tripole Pre_EA pattern by modulating moisture transport and vertical motion in the East Asia-North Pacific regions. Specifically, positive TA is linked to significant local tropospheric warming, which intensifies and eastward expands the South Asian High, creating a double-gyre meridional circulation over East Asia. Additionally, positive TA induces an eastward-propagating wave, reinforcing a midlatitude anomalous high-pressure belt over East Asia and the western North Pacific regions. These circulation changes weaken the East Asian subtropical jet, form a notable double jet configuration, and promote subsidence over mid-latitude East Asia. Moreover, anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Northwestern Pacific reinforce the TA-Pre_EA relationship by contributing to the mid-latitude East Asia-North Pacific high-pressure belt. Our LBM model experiments support these findings. Our study provides an in-depth understanding of the physical processes influencing summer precipitation variability in East Asia.

青藏高原增温放大是全球气候变化的一个显著特征,导致各种气候响应,影响深远。利用实测资料和线性斜压模式(LBM)研究了TA年际变化对东亚夏季降水的影响。当TA超过北半球平均水平时,长江流域夏季降水显著减少,华北和华南夏季降水增加,形成Pre_EA三极型。值得注意的是,TA和Pre_EA之间的关系与El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)无关,并且解释了Pre_EA比ENSO更大的方差。分析表明,热作用通过调节东亚-北太平洋地区的水汽输送和垂直运动增强了三极子Pre_EA型。具体来说,正TA与显著的局部对流层变暖有关,该变暖加剧并向东扩展南亚高压,在东亚上空形成双环流经向环流。此外,正TA诱发一个向东传播的波,加强了东亚和北太平洋西部地区的中纬度异常高压带。这些环流变化减弱了东亚副热带急流,形成了显著的双急流构型,促进了东亚中纬度地区的下沉。此外,西北太平洋海表温度异常温暖,通过促进中纬度东亚-北太平洋高压带,加强了TA-Pre_EA关系。我们的LBM模型实验支持这些发现。我们的研究提供了对影响东亚夏季降水变率的物理过程的深入理解。
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引用次数: 0
Reversed link between central pacific ENSO and Greenland–Barents sea ice 中太平洋ENSO与格陵兰-巴伦支海冰之间的反向联系
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00912-5
Yuxin Xie, Anmin Duan, Chao Zhang, Chuangzhi He, Qi Mao, Bingxian Liu

Winter Arctic sea ice is a crucial climate indicator, declining at an accelerated rate compared to the past and playing a significant role in Arctic amplification over recent decades. The sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Greenland–Barents Sea (GBS) shows considerable interannual variability, yet the link between this variability and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains uncertain. Here, we identify a reversed relationship between the autumn Central Pacific (CP)-type ENSO and the winter GBS SIC around the mid-1980s. Observational and model experiments demonstrate that, before the mid-1980s, CP ENSO triggered a double wave pattern propagating toward the Arctic, generating a positive geopotential height anomaly in the Arctic. Such an anomaly, along with a northerly anomaly, favored cold-air advection and intrusion into the GBS, resulting in an increased SIC. After the mid-1980s, however, CP ENSO only induced a single wave train towards the Arctic, favoring a positive geopotential height anomaly over Iceland. As a result, the southerly anomaly transported abundant moisture into the GBS and consequently reduced the SIC. The variation in wave patterns can largely be attributed to the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Atlantic induced by CP ENSO. Our findings highlight the unstable connection between tropical and polar regions, which provides a basis for better understanding the mechanisms of Arctic sea-ice changes.

北极冬季海冰是一个重要的气候指标,与过去相比,其下降速度加快,并在近几十年的北极放大中发挥了重要作用。格陵兰-巴伦支海(GBS)的海冰浓度(SIC)表现出相当大的年际变化,但这种变化与厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)之间的联系仍不确定。本研究发现,20世纪80年代中期前后,秋季中太平洋(CP)型ENSO与冬季GBS - SIC之间存在反向关系。观测和模式实验表明,在20世纪80年代中期之前,CP ENSO引发了一个向北极传播的双波型,在北极产生了一个正的位势高度异常。这种异常与偏北异常一起,有利于冷空气平流侵入GBS,导致SIC增加。然而,在20世纪80年代中期之后,CP ENSO只诱导了一股向北极的波列,有利于冰岛上空的正位势高度异常。结果表明,南向异常向GBS输送了丰富的水汽,降低了SIC。这种波型的变化在很大程度上可归因于CP ENSO引起的热带大西洋海温异常。我们的发现强调了热带和极地地区之间不稳定的联系,这为更好地理解北极海冰变化的机制提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Characterisation of environmentally persistent free radicals and their contributions to oxidative potential and reactive oxygen species in sea spray and size-resolved ambient particles 环境持久性自由基的特征及其对海洋喷雾和大小分辨环境颗粒中氧化电位和活性氧的贡献
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00911-6
Xinji Zhang, Fanyi Wei, Haiyan Fu, Huibin Guo

Aerosols, derived from natural processes and human activities, present various risks to the environment and human health. In this regard, the role of recent pollutant environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) should not be overlooked. However, the oxidative toxicity and mass transfer processes of EPFRs in liquid-phase environments remain completely understood. In this study, the dispersion characteristics of EPFRs and their contributions to the oxidation potential (OP) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) in sea spray and size-resolved PM were investigated and compared. The results showed that the sea spray contained fast-decaying C-centred EPFRs with a half-life of 0.32 years. The concentration ranged from 0.3 × 1013 spins/m3 to 7.5 × 1013 spins/m3. It increased as the samples approached the coast. Moreover, the size-resolved PM contained slow-decaying O-centred EPFRs with a half-life of 0.51 years. The concentration ranged from 4.57 × 1013 spins/m3 to 11.46 × 1013 spins/m3, which was higher than that of most sea spray samples. The interaction between sea spray and water mainly generated hydroxyl free radicals (54 ± 3%), whereas the size-resolved PM mainly generated organic free radicals (64 ± 5%). Correlation analysis revealed that EPFRs may be involved in ROS generation. In addition, the mass transfer of EPFRs between the PM and sea spray may have been controlled by both gas and liquid films. The concentration of EPFRs at the phase interface was calculated to be 4.92 × 1013 spins/m3. In summary, EPFRs positively contribute to OP and ROS production.

来自自然过程和人类活动的气溶胶对环境和人类健康构成各种风险。在这方面,近期污染物环境持久性自由基(EPFRs)的作用不容忽视。然而,epfr在液相环境中的氧化毒性和传质过程仍未完全了解。本研究研究并比较了EPFRs在浪花和粒径分解PM中的分散特性及其对氧化电位(OP)和活性氧(ROS)的贡献。结果表明,海雾中含有快速衰变的c中心EPFRs,半衰期为0.32年。浓度范围为0.3 × 1013自旋/m3 ~ 7.5 × 1013自旋/m3。当样本靠近海岸时,它增加了。此外,尺寸分辨的PM含有慢衰变的o中心epfr,半衰期为0.51年。浓度范围为4.57 ~ 11.46 × 1013旋/m3,高于大部分海雾样品。浪花与水的相互作用主要产生羟基自由基(54±3%),而粒径分解PM主要产生有机自由基(64±5%)。相关分析显示EPFRs可能参与ROS的生成。此外,epfr在PM和海喷雾之间的传质可能受到气膜和液膜的控制。计算出EPFRs在相界面处的浓度为4.92 × 1013自旋/m3。综上所述,EPFRs积极促进OP和ROS的产生。
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引用次数: 0
Risks and sustainability of outdoor ski resorts in China under climate changes 气候变化下中国户外滑雪场的风险与可持续性
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00917-0
Yanqiang Wei, Jing Li, Dongliang Luo, Xuejie Tang, Zihao Wu, Xufeng Wang

Global warming is jeopardizing the artificial snow making conditions, shortening outdoor ski resorts opening days and increasing operation cost, severely threatening the sustainability of outdoor ski industry. The sustainability of 772 outdoor ski resorts in China under RCP 4.5 climate scenarios in 2030 s and 2050 s had been analyzed. (1) The skiing sports developed prominently during 1996 to 2023 and will boom in China in the coming decades. (2) Accelerated global warming is the main threat to the sustainability of outdoor ski resorts of China. However, snowfall isn’t a critical influencing factor in the coming decades. (3) The outdoor ski resorts in south China are facing the most threats and are the most unsustainable resorts. We proposed a nexus of Government-Operator-Skier adaptation framework for adapting climate change threats and advocating the temporal small-scale ski resorts are more adaptive as their high water and energy efficiencies for saving water and electricity resources.

全球气候变暖破坏了人工造雪条件,缩短了户外滑雪场的开放日,增加了运营成本,严重威胁着户外滑雪产业的可持续发展。本文对中国 772 家户外滑雪场在 2030 年和 2050 年 RCP 4.5 气候情景下的可持续性进行了分析。(1)滑雪运动在 1996 年至 2023 年期间得到了长足发展,并将在未来几十年在中国蓬勃兴起。(2)全球变暖加速是中国户外滑雪场可持续发展的主要威胁。然而,降雪量并不是未来几十年的关键影响因素。(3)中国南方的户外滑雪场面临的威胁最大,也是最难以为继的滑雪场。我们提出了一个 "政府-经营者-滑雪者 "的适应气候变化威胁的框架,并提倡临时性的小型滑雪场更具有适应性,因为它们的用水和能源效率高,可以节省水电资源。
{"title":"Risks and sustainability of outdoor ski resorts in China under climate changes","authors":"Yanqiang Wei, Jing Li, Dongliang Luo, Xuejie Tang, Zihao Wu, Xufeng Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00917-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00917-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming is jeopardizing the artificial snow making conditions, shortening outdoor ski resorts opening days and increasing operation cost, severely threatening the sustainability of outdoor ski industry. The sustainability of 772 outdoor ski resorts in China under RCP 4.5 climate scenarios in 2030 s and 2050 s had been analyzed. (1) The skiing sports developed prominently during 1996 to 2023 and will boom in China in the coming decades. (2) Accelerated global warming is the main threat to the sustainability of outdoor ski resorts of China. However, snowfall isn’t a critical influencing factor in the coming decades. (3) The outdoor ski resorts in south China are facing the most threats and are the most unsustainable resorts. We proposed a nexus of Government-Operator-Skier adaptation framework for adapting climate change threats and advocating the temporal small-scale ski resorts are more adaptive as their high water and energy efficiencies for saving water and electricity resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142990046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood modeling prior to the instrumental era reveals limited magnitude of 1931 Yangtze flood 在仪器时代之前的洪水模型显示了1931年长江洪水的有限震级
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00908-1
Ling Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Lu Li, Xiaoling Chen, Xijin Wang, Entao Yu, Pratik Kad, Odd Helge Otterå, Chuncheng Guo, Jianzhong Lu, Mingna Wu

The global flood risk urges an improved understanding of flood magnitude and its mechanism, which needs insights from pre-instrumental flood investigations. Due to data scarcity, reconstructing pre-instrumental flood magnitudes relies on statistical downscaling, failing to capture nonlinear and dynamic characteristics. We developed a dynamical approach, NorESM-WRF-SWAT, integrating a global climate, a regional, and a hydrologic model to investigate the 1931 Yangtze River flood (the deadliest in the world) and compared it with the 1998’s. Through validation, our method outperforms the statistical method in simulating precipitations and river discharges. For the first time, we presented detailed insights into the intensity and duration of the 1931 flood, revealing a smaller magnitude but associated with an amplified loss, likely due to social vulnerability and reduced societal resilience compared to the 1998’s. While successful simulation can be interfered with by model variability, our dynamical method shows promise for simulating pre-instrumental flood and building a long-term pre-instrumental-hydrology database.

全球洪水风险促使人们更好地了解洪水的震级及其机制,这需要从仪器前的洪水调查中获得见解。由于数据稀缺,重建仪器前洪水震级依赖于统计降尺度,无法捕捉非线性和动态特征。我们开发了一种动态方法,NorESM-WRF-SWAT,整合了全球气候、区域和水文模型来调查1931年长江洪水(世界上最致命的洪水),并将其与1998年的洪水进行了比较。通过验证,该方法在模拟降水和河流流量方面优于统计方法。我们首次对1931年洪水的强度和持续时间进行了详细的分析,揭示了与1998年的洪水相比,1931年的洪水规模较小,但损失却更大,这可能是由于社会脆弱性和社会恢复力的降低。虽然成功的模拟可能会受到模式变率的干扰,但我们的动态方法显示出模拟仪器前洪水和建立仪器前长期水文数据库的希望。
{"title":"Flood modeling prior to the instrumental era reveals limited magnitude of 1931 Yangtze flood","authors":"Ling Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Lu Li, Xiaoling Chen, Xijin Wang, Entao Yu, Pratik Kad, Odd Helge Otterå, Chuncheng Guo, Jianzhong Lu, Mingna Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00908-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00908-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The global flood risk urges an improved understanding of flood magnitude and its mechanism, which needs insights from pre-instrumental flood investigations. Due to data scarcity, reconstructing pre-instrumental flood magnitudes relies on statistical downscaling, failing to capture nonlinear and dynamic characteristics. We developed a dynamical approach, NorESM-WRF-SWAT, integrating a global climate, a regional, and a hydrologic model to investigate the 1931 Yangtze River flood (the deadliest in the world) and compared it with the 1998’s. Through validation, our method outperforms the statistical method in simulating precipitations and river discharges. For the first time, we presented detailed insights into the intensity and duration of the 1931 flood, revealing a smaller magnitude but associated with an amplified loss, likely due to social vulnerability and reduced societal resilience compared to the 1998’s. While successful simulation can be interfered with by model variability, our dynamical method shows promise for simulating pre-instrumental flood and building a long-term pre-instrumental-hydrology database.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"532 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142989063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Excessive equatorial light rain causes modeling dry bias of Indian summer monsoon rainfall 赤道小雨过多导致印度夏季季风降水的模拟干偏
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00916-1
Gudongze Li, Chun Zhao, Jun Gu, Jiawang Feng, Mingyue Xu, Xiaoyu Hao, Junshi Chen, Hong An, Wenju Cai, Tao Geng

Simulating accurately the South Asian summer monsoon is crucial for food security of several South Asian countries yet challenging for global climate models (GCMs). The GCMs suffer from some systematic biases including dry bias in mean monsoon rainfall over the India subcontinent and excessive equatorial light rain between which the relationship was rarely discussed. Numerical experiments are conducted for one month during active monsoon with global quasi-uniform resolution of 60 km (U60 km) and 3 km (U3 km) separately. Evaluation with observations shows that U3 km reduces the dry bias over northern India and excessive light rain over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) that are both prominent in U60 km. Excessive light rain in U60 km contributes critically to stronger rainfall and latent heating over the EIO. A Hadley-type anomalous circulation is thus induced, whose subsidence branch suppresses updrafts and reduces moisture transport into northern India, contributing to the dry bias. The findings highlight the importance of constraining excessive light rain for regional climate projection in GCMs.

准确模拟南亚夏季风对一些南亚国家的粮食安全至关重要,但对全球气候模式(GCMs)却具有挑战性。gcm存在一些系统偏差,包括印度次大陆季风平均降雨量的干燥偏差和赤道小雨过多,两者之间的关系很少被讨论。在季风活跃期进行了为期一个月的数值试验,全球准均匀分辨率分别为60 km (U60 km)和3 km (U3 km)。观测资料评估表明,U3 km减少了印度北部的干偏和赤道印度洋(EIO)的过度小雨,这两者在U60 km中都很突出。U60公里范围内的过量小雨对影响东热带的强降雨和潜热有重要影响。哈德利型异常环流由此产生,其下沉分支抑制上升气流,减少水汽输送到印度北部,造成干燥偏压。这些发现强调了在gcm中限制过度小雨对区域气候预测的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Predictability of tropical cyclone track density in S2S reforecast S2S再预报中热带气旋路径密度的可预测性
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00909-0
Chi Lok Loi, Kai-Chih Tseng, Chun-Chieh Wu

In this study, we examine the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) track density in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) reforecast ensembles of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using the method of average predictability time (APT). Eleven of the retrieved APT modes (APTMs) of TC track density possess an APT longer than 1 week. The most predictable of them, APTM-1, has an APT of almost three weeks and is found to be closely linked to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and monsoon variability. Another discovery is the strong relationship between APTM-7 and the activity of mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves and tropical depression (TD) type disturbances despite its short APT of ~12 days. We further carry out a simple case analysis to see how the relatively high predictability of APTM-1 manifests in the S2S model. Our work provides a new possibility for improving medium-range TC forecast skill, and has revealed how underlying tropical variability can play a role in determining TC predictability.

本研究利用平均可预测时间(APT)方法研究了欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)亚季节到季节(S2S)重预报组合中热带气旋(TC)路径密度的可预测性。在TC径迹密度检索到的APT模态(APTMs)中,有11个APT模态的APT周期大于1周。其中最可预测的是APTM-1,其APT几乎为三周,并且被发现与北方夏季季内振荡(BSISO)和季风变率密切相关。另一个发现是APTM-7与混合罗斯重力波(MRG)和热带低气压(TD)型扰动的活动有很强的关系,尽管它的APT只有约12天。我们进一步进行了简单的案例分析,以了解APTM-1相对较高的可预测性如何在S2S模型中体现出来。我们的工作为提高中期TC预报技能提供了新的可能性,并揭示了潜在的热带变率如何在确定TC可预测性方面发挥作用。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of fine terrain complexity on cloud and precipitation changes over the Tibetan Plateau: a modeling study 精细地形复杂性对青藏高原云和降水变化影响的模拟研究
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00907-2
Kai Yang, Jinghua Chen, Tianliang Zhao, Chunsong Lu, Xiangde Xu, Yuehan Luo, Qingjian Yang, Chenghao Tan, Weikang Fu, Ziyue Wang

Inaccurate characterization of complex topography leads to the wet bias in climate models, particularly affecting terrain effects in regions like the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multiple terrain datasets and introduces the terrain complexity index (TCI) to quantify the degree of terrain changes, aiming to evaluate how terrain complexity affects the cloud and precipitation processes over the TP. The results indicate that fine terrain complexity primarily causes earlier cloud formation and precipitation, resulting in more heavy precipitation on the southern slope of the TP (SSTP) and more light precipitation on the TP platform. The structure of moisture transport and microphysical processes further reveals that this promotes the formation of more medium and high clouds, increasing the proportion of solid precipitation over the SSTP. Over the TP platform, the restriction of medium and high cloud development with enhancing the proportion of low clouds for more liquid precipitation. These findings deepen the understanding of the TP’s complex terrain effect on cloud and precipitation changes in the Asian water cycle.

对复杂地形的描述不准确会导致气候模式的湿偏差,尤其会影响青藏高原(TP)等地区的地形效应。本研究利用气象研究和预报(WRF)模式与多个地形数据集,并引入地形复杂性指数(TCI)来量化地形变化程度,旨在评估地形复杂性如何影响青藏高原的云和降水过程。结果表明,精细的地形复杂性主要导致云的形成和降水的提前,从而使大埔南坡(SSTP)出现更多的强降水,而大埔平台则出现更多的轻降水。水汽输送和微物理过程的结构进一步表明,这促进了更多中云和高云的形成,增加了SSTP上固体降水的比例。在热带潮汐平台上,中云和高云的发展受到限制,低云的比例增加,从而产生更多的液态降水。这些发现加深了人们对亚洲水循环中大埔复杂地形对云和降水变化影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis of methods for seasonal particulate organic nitrate estimation in urban areas 城市季节颗粒物有机硝酸盐估算方法的比较分析
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00904-5
Wenfei Zhu, Jialin Shi, Song Guo, Qinghong Wang, Jun Chen, Shengrong Lou, Min Hu

Accurately estimating particulate organic nitrate under high NOx and oxidizing conditions is critical. This study compared the NOx+ ratio, unconstrained Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), and Multilinear Engine-2 (ME2) methods to estimate particulate organic nitrate in Shanghai across different seasons. The factors associated with organic nitrate, as identified through two receptor methods, exhibited consistent daily patterns in spring, summer, and autumn, although source contributions varied. The NOx+ ratio method reported higher organic nitrate levels than the PMF and ME2 methods, likely due to the fixed RON/RAN parameter. Seasonal RON/RAN parameters were optimized based on precursor emissions in Shanghai, achieving values of 3.13 in spring, 2.25 in summer, and 1.88 in autumn. This optimization reduced discrepancies in organic nitrate using the NOx+ ratio to 3.2–7.4%. The optimized parameters in this study support the rapid and accurate estimation of organic nitrate during different seasons in urban areas.

在高NOx和氧化条件下准确估计颗粒有机硝酸盐是至关重要的。本研究比较了NOx+比值、无约束正矩阵分解(PMF)和多线性Engine-2 (ME2)方法在不同季节对上海大气颗粒物有机硝酸盐的估算。通过两种受体方法确定的与有机硝酸盐相关的因子在春季、夏季和秋季表现出一致的日模式,尽管来源贡献不同。与PMF和ME2方法相比,NOx+比值法报告的有机硝酸盐含量更高,这可能是由于固定的RON/RAN参数。基于上海市前体排放对季节RON/RAN参数进行优化,得到春季为3.13,夏季为2.25,秋季为1.88。该优化将有机硝酸盐的差异降低到3.2-7.4%,使用NOx+比率。本研究优化的参数支持了城市不同季节有机硝酸盐的快速准确估算。
{"title":"Comparative analysis of methods for seasonal particulate organic nitrate estimation in urban areas","authors":"Wenfei Zhu, Jialin Shi, Song Guo, Qinghong Wang, Jun Chen, Shengrong Lou, Min Hu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00904-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00904-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately estimating particulate organic nitrate under high NO<sub>x</sub> and oxidizing conditions is critical. This study compared the NO<sub>x</sub><sup>+</sup> ratio, unconstrained Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), and Multilinear Engine-2 (ME2) methods to estimate particulate organic nitrate in Shanghai across different seasons. The factors associated with organic nitrate, as identified through two receptor methods, exhibited consistent daily patterns in spring, summer, and autumn, although source contributions varied. The NO<sub>x</sub><sup>+</sup> ratio method reported higher organic nitrate levels than the PMF and ME2 methods, likely due to the fixed R<sub>ON</sub>/R<sub>AN</sub> parameter. Seasonal R<sub>ON</sub>/R<sub>AN</sub> parameters were optimized based on precursor emissions in Shanghai, achieving values of 3.13 in spring, 2.25 in summer, and 1.88 in autumn. This optimization reduced discrepancies in organic nitrate using the NO<sub>x</sub><sup>+</sup> ratio to 3.2–7.4%. The optimized parameters in this study support the rapid and accurate estimation of organic nitrate during different seasons in urban areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"39 14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142987636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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