Pub Date : 2024-12-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6
Xiao Chen, Jialin Wang, Feifei Pan, Binxiang Huang, Pengshuai Bi, Na Huang, Riping Gao, Jingyu Men, Fangxiao Zhang, Zhanrui Huang, Buju Long, Ju Liang, Zhihua Pan
Widespread spring vegetation greening (inferred by LAI) in the Northern Hemisphere leads to additional summer soil moisture (SM) deficits through increasing transpiration. Meanwhile, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has also been rising, which can increase atmospheric evaporative demand. However, the extent and magnitude of influence of these two factors on SM changes have not been elucidated. Here, based on the state-of-the-art reanalysis and remote sensing data, we use three statistical methods to quantify the contributions of spring LAI and summer VPD to summer SM deficit. The results show that summer VPD contributes more to SM change than spring LAI in the southwestern and northern regions of North America, northeastern Europe, and central and southeastern Asia, covering 13.4% of the vegetated areas despite of the certain influence of spring vegetation greening on summer soil drying. The results are of great significance for climate change adaptation and the enhancement of surface water management.
{"title":"Summer atmospheric drying could contribute more to soil moisture change than spring vegetation greening","authors":"Xiao Chen, Jialin Wang, Feifei Pan, Binxiang Huang, Pengshuai Bi, Na Huang, Riping Gao, Jingyu Men, Fangxiao Zhang, Zhanrui Huang, Buju Long, Ju Liang, Zhihua Pan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6","url":null,"abstract":"Widespread spring vegetation greening (inferred by LAI) in the Northern Hemisphere leads to additional summer soil moisture (SM) deficits through increasing transpiration. Meanwhile, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has also been rising, which can increase atmospheric evaporative demand. However, the extent and magnitude of influence of these two factors on SM changes have not been elucidated. Here, based on the state-of-the-art reanalysis and remote sensing data, we use three statistical methods to quantify the contributions of spring LAI and summer VPD to summer SM deficit. The results show that summer VPD contributes more to SM change than spring LAI in the southwestern and northern regions of North America, northeastern Europe, and central and southeastern Asia, covering 13.4% of the vegetated areas despite of the certain influence of spring vegetation greening on summer soil drying. The results are of great significance for climate change adaptation and the enhancement of surface water management.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00844-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Under global warming, summer precipitation over East China was projected to increase by current state-of-the-art climate models, but a large inter-model spread exists. Here we try to reduce the projection uncertainty by imposing constraints. Our procedure consists of first decomposing the projected future precipitation into inter-model principal components. The two leading modes (region-wide uniform monopole and north-south dipole, accounting for 55% of variability), by emergent constraints, are then linked to the simulation of historical precipitation in the northwest Pacific and the tropical Pacific (constraining areas). This allows us to reduce the uncertainties by 23% and obtain a smaller increase of projected precipitation in East China, relative to previous multi-model ensemble projections. Quasi-uniform increases, although weak, are obtained for the first mode, while the second mode shows a contrast pattern with a decrease in the south and an increase in the north, which both contribute to the spatial structure of constrainted projection. It is also shown that the emergent relations of both modes are physically consistent, with an enhancement of future zonal land-sea thermal contrast and a La Niña-like pattern, respectively. The use of emergent constraints inspires more confidence in the future regional precipitation projection and helps policymakers and stakeholders adjust their management policies.
{"title":"Improve the projection of East China summer precipitation with emergent constraints","authors":"Huanhuan Zhu, Zhihong Jiang, Laurent Li, Wei Li, Sheng Jiang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00863-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00863-3","url":null,"abstract":"Under global warming, summer precipitation over East China was projected to increase by current state-of-the-art climate models, but a large inter-model spread exists. Here we try to reduce the projection uncertainty by imposing constraints. Our procedure consists of first decomposing the projected future precipitation into inter-model principal components. The two leading modes (region-wide uniform monopole and north-south dipole, accounting for 55% of variability), by emergent constraints, are then linked to the simulation of historical precipitation in the northwest Pacific and the tropical Pacific (constraining areas). This allows us to reduce the uncertainties by 23% and obtain a smaller increase of projected precipitation in East China, relative to previous multi-model ensemble projections. Quasi-uniform increases, although weak, are obtained for the first mode, while the second mode shows a contrast pattern with a decrease in the south and an increase in the north, which both contribute to the spatial structure of constrainted projection. It is also shown that the emergent relations of both modes are physically consistent, with an enhancement of future zonal land-sea thermal contrast and a La Niña-like pattern, respectively. The use of emergent constraints inspires more confidence in the future regional precipitation projection and helps policymakers and stakeholders adjust their management policies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00863-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2023, the global temperature rose significantly, triggering a marine heatwave (MHW) in the East China Sea (ECS) from August 12 to October 13. Unlike the typical July onset, this event was delayed. Here we investigate the mechanisms behind the late onset and prolonged duration of the 2023 MHW in the ECS and its potential linkage to global warming. The early phase was driven by shortwave radiation and ocean dynamics, while the later phase saw reduced northerly winds, allowing warmer, more humid southerlies to dominate. This shift decreased the air-sea humidity difference, enhancing downward latent heat fluxes. Future CMIP6 projections also suggest that delayed MHWs are linked to weak heat exchanges, limiting the oceanic heat transport to the atmosphere. Our findings highlight the increasing risk of prolonged MHWs in the ECS and the urgent need for improved climate preparedness.
{"title":"Late-arriving 2023 summer marine heatwave in the East China Sea and implications for global warming","authors":"Hyoeun Oh, Jung-Eun Chu, Yongchim Min, Go-Un Kim, Jongmin Jeong, Suchan Lee, Jaeik Lee, Jin-Young Jeong","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00846-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00846-4","url":null,"abstract":"In 2023, the global temperature rose significantly, triggering a marine heatwave (MHW) in the East China Sea (ECS) from August 12 to October 13. Unlike the typical July onset, this event was delayed. Here we investigate the mechanisms behind the late onset and prolonged duration of the 2023 MHW in the ECS and its potential linkage to global warming. The early phase was driven by shortwave radiation and ocean dynamics, while the later phase saw reduced northerly winds, allowing warmer, more humid southerlies to dominate. This shift decreased the air-sea humidity difference, enhancing downward latent heat fluxes. Future CMIP6 projections also suggest that delayed MHWs are linked to weak heat exchanges, limiting the oceanic heat transport to the atmosphere. Our findings highlight the increasing risk of prolonged MHWs in the ECS and the urgent need for improved climate preparedness.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00846-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-02DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5
Mariana Villarreal-Marines, Michael Pérez-Rodríguez, Yasmany Mancilla, Gabriela Ortiz, Alberto Mendoza
Low-cost sensors (LCS) for suspended particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) have attracted worldwide attention for crowdsourcing air quality data. Here, we analyze one year’s worth of PM2.5 data from light-scattering LCS deployed in Monterrey, Mexico, one of the most polluted conurbations of Latin America. We also tested the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for classification and field calibration of the PM2.5 data derived from the LCS. Regression model performance increased from a low baseline (compared to other studies) of R2 ≈ 0.3 to R2 ≈ 0.5, with XGBoost outperforming the other machine learning algorithms tested. Differences in local climate and emission conditions emphasize the significance of considering regional distinctions when interpreting and comparing LCS responses and field calibration efforts. When using rank-level confusion matrices, True Positive air quality classification of predicted PM2.5 levels by XGBoost rated between 71% and 88%.
{"title":"Field calibration of fine particulate matter low-cost sensors in a highly industrialized semi-arid conurbation","authors":"Mariana Villarreal-Marines, Michael Pérez-Rodríguez, Yasmany Mancilla, Gabriela Ortiz, Alberto Mendoza","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5","url":null,"abstract":"Low-cost sensors (LCS) for suspended particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) have attracted worldwide attention for crowdsourcing air quality data. Here, we analyze one year’s worth of PM2.5 data from light-scattering LCS deployed in Monterrey, Mexico, one of the most polluted conurbations of Latin America. We also tested the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for classification and field calibration of the PM2.5 data derived from the LCS. Regression model performance increased from a low baseline (compared to other studies) of R2 ≈ 0.3 to R2 ≈ 0.5, with XGBoost outperforming the other machine learning algorithms tested. Differences in local climate and emission conditions emphasize the significance of considering regional distinctions when interpreting and comparing LCS responses and field calibration efforts. When using rank-level confusion matrices, True Positive air quality classification of predicted PM2.5 levels by XGBoost rated between 71% and 88%.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00837-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8
María Santolaria-Otín, Javier García-Serrano
The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the leading modes of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere and key driver of surface climate anomalies, was long considered to be spatially stable. Yet, its northern center-of-action – the Icelandic Low (IL) – shifted eastward in the late 1970s compared to the preceding decades of the mid-20th century. The responsible processes are still uncertain, particularly after the decline of the positive NAO trend in the 21st century. Here, we present observational and model evidence that the NAO-IL moves naturally alternating between two preferential locations, west/east of Iceland, with no need for changes in anthropogenic forcing or low-frequency oceanic variability. These recurrent longitudinal displacements of the NAO pattern appear linked to zonal changes in the fluctuations (not mean-state) of transient-eddy activity, emphasizing the relevance of internal atmospheric variability, and could represent a major source of uncertainty in regional climate prediction and projection.
{"title":"Internal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation longitudinal displacements","authors":"María Santolaria-Otín, Javier García-Serrano","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8","url":null,"abstract":"The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the leading modes of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere and key driver of surface climate anomalies, was long considered to be spatially stable. Yet, its northern center-of-action – the Icelandic Low (IL) – shifted eastward in the late 1970s compared to the preceding decades of the mid-20th century. The responsible processes are still uncertain, particularly after the decline of the positive NAO trend in the 21st century. Here, we present observational and model evidence that the NAO-IL moves naturally alternating between two preferential locations, west/east of Iceland, with no need for changes in anthropogenic forcing or low-frequency oceanic variability. These recurrent longitudinal displacements of the NAO pattern appear linked to zonal changes in the fluctuations (not mean-state) of transient-eddy activity, emphasizing the relevance of internal atmospheric variability, and could represent a major source of uncertainty in regional climate prediction and projection.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00842-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7
Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden
Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.
{"title":"Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves","authors":"Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","url":null,"abstract":"Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00851-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6
Kangjie Ma, Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Bo Liu, Yulan Li, Huanhuan Ran, Wen Chen
In August 2022, unprecedented and long-lasting extreme heatwaves attacked the Northern Hemisphere, with simultaneous record-breaking surface air temperature (SAT) in Eastern Europe (EE), Southern China (SC), and Western North America (WNA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms of these concurrent heatwaves, and the extent to which they are driven by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remain unclear. Our analysis using the HadGEM3-A-N216 large ensemble attribution model reveals that anthropogenic forcing is responsible for approximately 50% of the heatwaves in EE and SC, and over 80% in WNA. Furthermore, an internally-generated circumglobal atmospheric wave train is identified as a key circulation factor facilitating these simultaneous heatwaves. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that extreme warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Barents Sea, along with extreme cold SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, are critical in the formation and maintenance of this atmospheric teleconnection wave train. Under future high-emission scenarios, the influence of the internally-generated atmospheric teleconnection on concurrent heatwaves may be enhanced, particularly in WNA.
{"title":"Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Kangjie Ma, Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Bo Liu, Yulan Li, Huanhuan Ran, Wen Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6","url":null,"abstract":"In August 2022, unprecedented and long-lasting extreme heatwaves attacked the Northern Hemisphere, with simultaneous record-breaking surface air temperature (SAT) in Eastern Europe (EE), Southern China (SC), and Western North America (WNA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms of these concurrent heatwaves, and the extent to which they are driven by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remain unclear. Our analysis using the HadGEM3-A-N216 large ensemble attribution model reveals that anthropogenic forcing is responsible for approximately 50% of the heatwaves in EE and SC, and over 80% in WNA. Furthermore, an internally-generated circumglobal atmospheric wave train is identified as a key circulation factor facilitating these simultaneous heatwaves. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that extreme warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Barents Sea, along with extreme cold SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, are critical in the formation and maintenance of this atmospheric teleconnection wave train. Under future high-emission scenarios, the influence of the internally-generated atmospheric teleconnection on concurrent heatwaves may be enhanced, particularly in WNA.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00828-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142718957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1
Parvathi Kooloth, Jian Lu, Craig Bakker, Derek DeSantis, Adam Rupe
Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.
{"title":"Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points","authors":"Parvathi Kooloth, Jian Lu, Craig Bakker, Derek DeSantis, Adam Rupe","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1","url":null,"abstract":"Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00768-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142712559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3
Sujuan Chen, Maigeng Zhou, De Li Liu, Shilu Tong, Zhiwei Xu, Mengmeng Li, Michael Tong, Qiyong Liu, Jun Yang
Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.
{"title":"Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China","authors":"Sujuan Chen, Maigeng Zhou, De Li Liu, Shilu Tong, Zhiwei Xu, Mengmeng Li, Michael Tong, Qiyong Liu, Jun Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00839-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142691027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00838-4
Martin Bauer, Hendryk Czech, Lukas Anders, Johannes Passig, Uwe Etzien, Jan Bendl, Thorsten Streibel, Thomas W. Adam, Bert Buchholz, Ralf Zimmermann
Ship traffic substantially contributes to air pollution, thus affecting climate and human health. Recently introduced regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the fuel sulfur content (FSC) caused a shift in marine fuel onsumption from heavy fuel oils (HFO) to diesel-like distillate fuels, but also to alternative hybrid fuels and the operation of sulfur scrubbers. Using multi-wavelength thermal-optical carbon analysis (MW-TOCA), our study provides emission factors (EF) of carbonaceous aerosol particles and link the fuel composition to features observed in the soot microstructure, which may be exploited in online monitoring by single-particle mass spectrometry (SPMS). Particulate matter from distillate fuels absorbs stronger light of the visible UV and near-infrared range than HFO. However, Simple Forcing Efficiency (SFE) of absorption weighted by EF of total carbon compensated the effect, leading to a net reduction by >50% when changing form HFO to distillate fuels.
船舶交通严重加剧了空气污染，从而影响气候和人类健康。国际海事组织（IMO）最近出台了关于燃料硫含量（FSC）的规定，导致船舶燃料消费从重油（HFO）转向柴油类馏分燃料，同时也转向替代性混合燃料和硫洗涤器的运行。通过使用多波长热光学碳分析（MW-TOCA），我们的研究提供了碳质气溶胶颗粒的排放因子（EF），并将燃料成分与烟尘微观结构中观察到的特征联系起来，这些特征可在单颗粒质谱仪（SPMS）在线监测中加以利用。与氢氟烯烃相比，来自馏分燃料的颗粒物质吸收更强的可见紫外线和近红外光。然而，以总碳的 EF 加权的吸收简单强迫效率（SFE）弥补了这一影响，当从氢氟烯烃燃料转变为馏分燃料时，吸收简单强迫效率净减少了 50%。
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