Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01253-z
Rajat Joshi, Rong Zhang
We investigate key mechanisms driving the Atlantic extratropical-tropical teleconnection and associated Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift in boreal summer under a strong external freshwater forcing using a coupled climate model. Our analysis reveals that the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (SST) feedback is not the primary mechanism. Instead, the southward advection of the upper extratropical North Atlantic signal by the North Atlantic subtropical gyre along a horseshoe pathway is a key mechanism for forming the horseshoe pattern of cold SST anomalies. Additionally, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes the upper tropical North Atlantic western boundary current. This change is amplified by enhanced surface wind stress curl over the tropical North Atlantic, contributing to warmer tropical Atlantic subsurface thermocline temperature and SST in the tropical South Atlantic. The dipole Atlantic SST anomalies lead to the trade wind response and associated southward ITCZ shift over the tropical Atlantic.
{"title":"On the Atlantic extratropical-tropical teleconnection in response to external freshwater forcing","authors":"Rajat Joshi, Rong Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01253-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01253-z","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate key mechanisms driving the Atlantic extratropical-tropical teleconnection and associated Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift in boreal summer under a strong external freshwater forcing using a coupled climate model. Our analysis reveals that the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (SST) feedback is not the primary mechanism. Instead, the southward advection of the upper extratropical North Atlantic signal by the North Atlantic subtropical gyre along a horseshoe pathway is a key mechanism for forming the horseshoe pattern of cold SST anomalies. Additionally, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes the upper tropical North Atlantic western boundary current. This change is amplified by enhanced surface wind stress curl over the tropical North Atlantic, contributing to warmer tropical Atlantic subsurface thermocline temperature and SST in the tropical South Atlantic. The dipole Atlantic SST anomalies lead to the trade wind response and associated southward ITCZ shift over the tropical Atlantic.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01250-2
Yue Chen, Ping Huang, Jun Ying
{"title":"El Niño-like warming underestimated in a warmer climate due to ENSO rectification effect","authors":"Yue Chen, Ping Huang, Jun Ying","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01250-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01250-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01248-w
I. Vilela, P. De Luca, S. Koseki, T. Silva, D. Veleda, N. Keenlyside
Global warming is expected to substantially weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, climate models disagree greatly on the magnitude of AMOC weakening. This adds uncertainties in climate change projections, across the globe, through influencing poleward ocean and atmospheric energy transports. Here, we show through multi-model analysis of future climate change projections that AMOC weakening during this century will strongly influence precipitation and its extremes over Brazil. Such weakening dominates over the direct global warming impacts, causing drying in the Amazon, while completely mitigating them in northeast Brazil. We trace this to a tropical Atlantic warming, consistent with weakened heat transport along the southern branch of the South Equatorial Current. This induces a cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient and changes in latent heat flux, shifting the intertropical convergence zone southward. Our findings highlight the need to reduce uncertainties in the AMOC response to global warming and its oceanic mediated influences on Brazilian climate.
{"title":"AMOC weakening modulates global warming impacts on precipitation over Brazil","authors":"I. Vilela, P. De Luca, S. Koseki, T. Silva, D. Veleda, N. Keenlyside","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01248-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01248-w","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming is expected to substantially weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, climate models disagree greatly on the magnitude of AMOC weakening. This adds uncertainties in climate change projections, across the globe, through influencing poleward ocean and atmospheric energy transports. Here, we show through multi-model analysis of future climate change projections that AMOC weakening during this century will strongly influence precipitation and its extremes over Brazil. Such weakening dominates over the direct global warming impacts, causing drying in the Amazon, while completely mitigating them in northeast Brazil. We trace this to a tropical Atlantic warming, consistent with weakened heat transport along the southern branch of the South Equatorial Current. This induces a cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient and changes in latent heat flux, shifting the intertropical convergence zone southward. Our findings highlight the need to reduce uncertainties in the AMOC response to global warming and its oceanic mediated influences on Brazilian climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01247-x
Xinyan Li, Fan Wang, Xiaorui Zhang, Pak Wai Chan, Yuanjian Yang, Chunsong Lu, Meng Gao
{"title":"Anomalous increase in sea fog frequency along coastal China in the early 21st century and the aerosol influence","authors":"Xinyan Li, Fan Wang, Xiaorui Zhang, Pak Wai Chan, Yuanjian Yang, Chunsong Lu, Meng Gao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01247-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01247-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01246-y
Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Thao
The chaotic nature of the climate has motivated the production of large ensembles of simulations. To exploit those ensembles for impact or attribution studies, models are either considered separately or pooled together to increase the statistical significance of the results. The latter assumes that models are interchangeable. Care is necessary when fields, like temperature, yield obvious biases. Synoptic fields like SLP do not yield obvious biases, which might justify their use to enrich reanalysis data. Here, we examine this hypothesis through a neural network classification approach. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to recognize a climate model from a single SLP map over the North Atlantic. We find that models are highly identifiable in the summer (and less so in other seasons). From this classification, we identify families of climate models and investigate how climate change can affect SLP daily patterns toward the end of the 21st century. This study allows identifying which climate models could be used as input for AI-based forecasts.
{"title":"Using artificial intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps","authors":"Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Thao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01246-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01246-y","url":null,"abstract":"The chaotic nature of the climate has motivated the production of large ensembles of simulations. To exploit those ensembles for impact or attribution studies, models are either considered separately or pooled together to increase the statistical significance of the results. The latter assumes that models are interchangeable. Care is necessary when fields, like temperature, yield obvious biases. Synoptic fields like SLP do not yield obvious biases, which might justify their use to enrich reanalysis data. Here, we examine this hypothesis through a neural network classification approach. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to recognize a climate model from a single SLP map over the North Atlantic. We find that models are highly identifiable in the summer (and less so in other seasons). From this classification, we identify families of climate models and investigate how climate change can affect SLP daily patterns toward the end of the 21st century. This study allows identifying which climate models could be used as input for AI-based forecasts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"171 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01241-3
Yilin Duo, Jie Zhang
{"title":"Arctic ice loss is delaying monsoon retreat over the Indochina Peninsula","authors":"Yilin Duo, Jie Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01241-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01241-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01240-4
Junling Ma, Jian Shi, Neil J. Holbrook, Jiajie Chen, Zhongxian Li
In recent decades, the northeast Pacific (NEP) has experienced multiple long-lasting and intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), which have significantly impacted both local ecosystems and climate in nearby regions. This study investigates the remote effects of NEP MHWs during early winter on downstream regions, particularly the North Atlantic and western Europe. First, we identify 14 MHWs in the NEP from 1981 to 2023, with peak day (i.e., the day when MHWs reach maximum intensity) occurring between November and December. Our results show that after the peak day, the ocean transfers heat to the atmosphere via surface heat fluxes, accompanied by positive diabatic heating anomalies in the lower troposphere. The diabatic heating anomalies induce a reversal in the low-level atmospheric circulation, transforming from high-pressure anomalies before the peak of the MHWs to large-scale low-pressure anomalies thereafter. Moreover, the low-pressure anomalies are also present in the upper troposphere after the peak. Accordingly, precipitation along the west coast of North America increases, which is associated with the intensification and northeastward extension of atmospheric rivers. Then, atmospheric Rossby waves are stimulated, due to increased precipitation and related circulation anomalies, and travel across the Atlantic to arrive in western Europe. The development of high-pressure anomalies in southern Europe and low-pressure anomalies in the central North Atlantic results in anomalous warm advection, which largely contributes to the warmer-than-normal temperatures in western Europe. Finally, we employ an atmospheric linear baroclinic model and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.0 to evaluate the aforementioned teleconnection mechanisms. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the linkage between NEP MHWs and temperatures in western Europe, providing an example of the remote climatic impacts that can be modulated by MHWs.
{"title":"A pathway for Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves to influence temperatures in western Europe during early winter","authors":"Junling Ma, Jian Shi, Neil J. Holbrook, Jiajie Chen, Zhongxian Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01240-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01240-4","url":null,"abstract":"In recent decades, the northeast Pacific (NEP) has experienced multiple long-lasting and intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), which have significantly impacted both local ecosystems and climate in nearby regions. This study investigates the remote effects of NEP MHWs during early winter on downstream regions, particularly the North Atlantic and western Europe. First, we identify 14 MHWs in the NEP from 1981 to 2023, with peak day (i.e., the day when MHWs reach maximum intensity) occurring between November and December. Our results show that after the peak day, the ocean transfers heat to the atmosphere via surface heat fluxes, accompanied by positive diabatic heating anomalies in the lower troposphere. The diabatic heating anomalies induce a reversal in the low-level atmospheric circulation, transforming from high-pressure anomalies before the peak of the MHWs to large-scale low-pressure anomalies thereafter. Moreover, the low-pressure anomalies are also present in the upper troposphere after the peak. Accordingly, precipitation along the west coast of North America increases, which is associated with the intensification and northeastward extension of atmospheric rivers. Then, atmospheric Rossby waves are stimulated, due to increased precipitation and related circulation anomalies, and travel across the Atlantic to arrive in western Europe. The development of high-pressure anomalies in southern Europe and low-pressure anomalies in the central North Atlantic results in anomalous warm advection, which largely contributes to the warmer-than-normal temperatures in western Europe. Finally, we employ an atmospheric linear baroclinic model and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.0 to evaluate the aforementioned teleconnection mechanisms. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the linkage between NEP MHWs and temperatures in western Europe, providing an example of the remote climatic impacts that can be modulated by MHWs.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"152 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145508809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01237-z
Min-Gyung Seo, Hyun Mee Kim, Soon-Il An
{"title":"Effects of El Niño-induced climate change on CO2 concentrations and the carbon cycle in East Asia","authors":"Min-Gyung Seo, Hyun Mee Kim, Soon-Il An","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01237-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01237-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145492462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：