Pub Date : 2024-11-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8
María Santolaria-Otín, Javier García-Serrano
The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the leading modes of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere and key driver of surface climate anomalies, was long considered to be spatially stable. Yet, its northern center-of-action – the Icelandic Low (IL) – shifted eastward in the late 1970s compared to the preceding decades of the mid-20th century. The responsible processes are still uncertain, particularly after the decline of the positive NAO trend in the 21st century. Here, we present observational and model evidence that the NAO-IL moves naturally alternating between two preferential locations, west/east of Iceland, with no need for changes in anthropogenic forcing or low-frequency oceanic variability. These recurrent longitudinal displacements of the NAO pattern appear linked to zonal changes in the fluctuations (not mean-state) of transient-eddy activity, emphasizing the relevance of internal atmospheric variability, and could represent a major source of uncertainty in regional climate prediction and projection.
{"title":"Internal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation longitudinal displacements","authors":"María Santolaria-Otín, Javier García-Serrano","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8","url":null,"abstract":"The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the leading modes of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere and key driver of surface climate anomalies, was long considered to be spatially stable. Yet, its northern center-of-action – the Icelandic Low (IL) – shifted eastward in the late 1970s compared to the preceding decades of the mid-20th century. The responsible processes are still uncertain, particularly after the decline of the positive NAO trend in the 21st century. Here, we present observational and model evidence that the NAO-IL moves naturally alternating between two preferential locations, west/east of Iceland, with no need for changes in anthropogenic forcing or low-frequency oceanic variability. These recurrent longitudinal displacements of the NAO pattern appear linked to zonal changes in the fluctuations (not mean-state) of transient-eddy activity, emphasizing the relevance of internal atmospheric variability, and could represent a major source of uncertainty in regional climate prediction and projection.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00842-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7
Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden
Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.
{"title":"Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves","authors":"Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","url":null,"abstract":"Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00851-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6
Kangjie Ma, Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Bo Liu, Yulan Li, Huanhuan Ran, Wen Chen
In August 2022, unprecedented and long-lasting extreme heatwaves attacked the Northern Hemisphere, with simultaneous record-breaking surface air temperature (SAT) in Eastern Europe (EE), Southern China (SC), and Western North America (WNA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms of these concurrent heatwaves, and the extent to which they are driven by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remain unclear. Our analysis using the HadGEM3-A-N216 large ensemble attribution model reveals that anthropogenic forcing is responsible for approximately 50% of the heatwaves in EE and SC, and over 80% in WNA. Furthermore, an internally-generated circumglobal atmospheric wave train is identified as a key circulation factor facilitating these simultaneous heatwaves. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that extreme warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Barents Sea, along with extreme cold SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, are critical in the formation and maintenance of this atmospheric teleconnection wave train. Under future high-emission scenarios, the influence of the internally-generated atmospheric teleconnection on concurrent heatwaves may be enhanced, particularly in WNA.
{"title":"Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Kangjie Ma, Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Bo Liu, Yulan Li, Huanhuan Ran, Wen Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6","url":null,"abstract":"In August 2022, unprecedented and long-lasting extreme heatwaves attacked the Northern Hemisphere, with simultaneous record-breaking surface air temperature (SAT) in Eastern Europe (EE), Southern China (SC), and Western North America (WNA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms of these concurrent heatwaves, and the extent to which they are driven by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remain unclear. Our analysis using the HadGEM3-A-N216 large ensemble attribution model reveals that anthropogenic forcing is responsible for approximately 50% of the heatwaves in EE and SC, and over 80% in WNA. Furthermore, an internally-generated circumglobal atmospheric wave train is identified as a key circulation factor facilitating these simultaneous heatwaves. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that extreme warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Barents Sea, along with extreme cold SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, are critical in the formation and maintenance of this atmospheric teleconnection wave train. Under future high-emission scenarios, the influence of the internally-generated atmospheric teleconnection on concurrent heatwaves may be enhanced, particularly in WNA.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00828-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142718957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1
Parvathi Kooloth, Jian Lu, Craig Bakker, Derek DeSantis, Adam Rupe
Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.
{"title":"Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points","authors":"Parvathi Kooloth, Jian Lu, Craig Bakker, Derek DeSantis, Adam Rupe","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1","url":null,"abstract":"Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00768-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142712559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3
Sujuan Chen, Maigeng Zhou, De Li Liu, Shilu Tong, Zhiwei Xu, Mengmeng Li, Michael Tong, Qiyong Liu, Jun Yang
Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.
{"title":"Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China","authors":"Sujuan Chen, Maigeng Zhou, De Li Liu, Shilu Tong, Zhiwei Xu, Mengmeng Li, Michael Tong, Qiyong Liu, Jun Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00839-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142691027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00838-4
Martin Bauer, Hendryk Czech, Lukas Anders, Johannes Passig, Uwe Etzien, Jan Bendl, Thorsten Streibel, Thomas W. Adam, Bert Buchholz, Ralf Zimmermann
Ship traffic substantially contributes to air pollution, thus affecting climate and human health. Recently introduced regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the fuel sulfur content (FSC) caused a shift in marine fuel onsumption from heavy fuel oils (HFO) to diesel-like distillate fuels, but also to alternative hybrid fuels and the operation of sulfur scrubbers. Using multi-wavelength thermal-optical carbon analysis (MW-TOCA), our study provides emission factors (EF) of carbonaceous aerosol particles and link the fuel composition to features observed in the soot microstructure, which may be exploited in online monitoring by single-particle mass spectrometry (SPMS). Particulate matter from distillate fuels absorbs stronger light of the visible UV and near-infrared range than HFO. However, Simple Forcing Efficiency (SFE) of absorption weighted by EF of total carbon compensated the effect, leading to a net reduction by >50% when changing form HFO to distillate fuels.
船舶交通严重加剧了空气污染，从而影响气候和人类健康。国际海事组织（IMO）最近出台了关于燃料硫含量（FSC）的规定，导致船舶燃料消费从重油（HFO）转向柴油类馏分燃料，同时也转向替代性混合燃料和硫洗涤器的运行。通过使用多波长热光学碳分析（MW-TOCA），我们的研究提供了碳质气溶胶颗粒的排放因子（EF），并将燃料成分与烟尘微观结构中观察到的特征联系起来，这些特征可在单颗粒质谱仪（SPMS）在线监测中加以利用。与氢氟烯烃相比，来自馏分燃料的颗粒物质吸收更强的可见紫外线和近红外光。然而，以总碳的 EF 加权的吸收简单强迫效率（SFE）弥补了这一影响，当从氢氟烯烃燃料转变为馏分燃料时，吸收简单强迫效率净减少了 50%。
{"title":"Impact of fuel sulfur regulations on carbonaceous particle emission from a marine engine","authors":"Martin Bauer, Hendryk Czech, Lukas Anders, Johannes Passig, Uwe Etzien, Jan Bendl, Thorsten Streibel, Thomas W. Adam, Bert Buchholz, Ralf Zimmermann","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00838-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00838-4","url":null,"abstract":"Ship traffic substantially contributes to air pollution, thus affecting climate and human health. Recently introduced regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the fuel sulfur content (FSC) caused a shift in marine fuel onsumption from heavy fuel oils (HFO) to diesel-like distillate fuels, but also to alternative hybrid fuels and the operation of sulfur scrubbers. Using multi-wavelength thermal-optical carbon analysis (MW-TOCA), our study provides emission factors (EF) of carbonaceous aerosol particles and link the fuel composition to features observed in the soot microstructure, which may be exploited in online monitoring by single-particle mass spectrometry (SPMS). Particulate matter from distillate fuels absorbs stronger light of the visible UV and near-infrared range than HFO. However, Simple Forcing Efficiency (SFE) of absorption weighted by EF of total carbon compensated the effect, leading to a net reduction by >50% when changing form HFO to distillate fuels.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00838-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00824-w
Wu Su, Binghao Wang, Hanyue Chen, Lin Zhu, Xiaogu Zheng, Song Xi Chen
Accurate estimation of carbon removal by terrestrial ecosystems and oceans is crucial to the success of global carbon mitigation initiatives. The emergence of multi-source CO2 observations offers prospects for an improved assessment of carbon fluxes. However, the utility of these diverse observations has been limited by their heterogeneity, leading to much variation in estimated carbon fluxes. To harvest the diverse data types, this paper develops a multi-observation carbon assimilation system (MCAS), which simultaneously integrates both satellite and ground-based observations. MCAS modifies the ensemble Kalman filter to apply different inflation factors to different types of observation errors, addressing the heterogeneity between satellite and in situ data. In commonly used independent validation datasets, the carbon flux derived from MCAS outperformed those obtained from a single source, demonstrating a 20% reduction in error compared to existing carbon flux products. We use MCAS to conduct ecosystem and ocean carbon flux inversion for the period of 2016–2020, which reveals that the 5-year average global net terrestrial and ocean sink was 1.84 ± 0.60 and 2.74 ± 0.49 petagrams, absorbing approximately 47% of human-caused CO2 emissions together, which were consistent with the global carbon project estimates of 1.82 and 2.66 petagrams. All these facts suggest MCAS is a better methodology than those for assimilating single-source observation only.
{"title":"A new global carbon flux estimation methodology by assimilation of both in situ and satellite CO2 observations","authors":"Wu Su, Binghao Wang, Hanyue Chen, Lin Zhu, Xiaogu Zheng, Song Xi Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00824-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00824-w","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate estimation of carbon removal by terrestrial ecosystems and oceans is crucial to the success of global carbon mitigation initiatives. The emergence of multi-source CO2 observations offers prospects for an improved assessment of carbon fluxes. However, the utility of these diverse observations has been limited by their heterogeneity, leading to much variation in estimated carbon fluxes. To harvest the diverse data types, this paper develops a multi-observation carbon assimilation system (MCAS), which simultaneously integrates both satellite and ground-based observations. MCAS modifies the ensemble Kalman filter to apply different inflation factors to different types of observation errors, addressing the heterogeneity between satellite and in situ data. In commonly used independent validation datasets, the carbon flux derived from MCAS outperformed those obtained from a single source, demonstrating a 20% reduction in error compared to existing carbon flux products. We use MCAS to conduct ecosystem and ocean carbon flux inversion for the period of 2016–2020, which reveals that the 5-year average global net terrestrial and ocean sink was 1.84 ± 0.60 and 2.74 ± 0.49 petagrams, absorbing approximately 47% of human-caused CO2 emissions together, which were consistent with the global carbon project estimates of 1.82 and 2.66 petagrams. All these facts suggest MCAS is a better methodology than those for assimilating single-source observation only.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00824-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00840-w
Longhuan Wang, Binghao Jia, Xing Yuan, Zhenghui Xie, Kun Yang, Jiancheng Shi
The change of groundwater storage (GWS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is vital for water resources management and regional sustainability, but its estimation has large uncertainty due to insufficient hydrological measurements and diverse future climate scenarios. Here, we employ high-resolution land surface modeling, advanced satellite observations, global climate model data, and deep learning to estimate GWS changes in the past and future. We find a 3.51 ± 2.40 Gt yr−1 increase in GWS from 2002–2018, especially in exorheic basins, attributed to glacier melting. The GWS will persistently increase in the future, but the growth rate is slowing down (0.14 Gt yr−1 for 2079–2100 under a high emission scenario). Increasing GWS is projected over most endorheic basins, which is associated with increasing precipitation and decreasing shortwave radiation. In contrast, decreasing GWS is projected over the headwaters of Amu Darya, Yangtze, and Yellow river basins. These insights have implications for sustainable water resource management in a changing climate.
{"title":"The slowdown of increasing groundwater storage in response to climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Longhuan Wang, Binghao Jia, Xing Yuan, Zhenghui Xie, Kun Yang, Jiancheng Shi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00840-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00840-w","url":null,"abstract":"The change of groundwater storage (GWS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is vital for water resources management and regional sustainability, but its estimation has large uncertainty due to insufficient hydrological measurements and diverse future climate scenarios. Here, we employ high-resolution land surface modeling, advanced satellite observations, global climate model data, and deep learning to estimate GWS changes in the past and future. We find a 3.51 ± 2.40 Gt yr−1 increase in GWS from 2002–2018, especially in exorheic basins, attributed to glacier melting. The GWS will persistently increase in the future, but the growth rate is slowing down (0.14 Gt yr−1 for 2079–2100 under a high emission scenario). Increasing GWS is projected over most endorheic basins, which is associated with increasing precipitation and decreasing shortwave radiation. In contrast, decreasing GWS is projected over the headwaters of Amu Darya, Yangtze, and Yellow river basins. These insights have implications for sustainable water resource management in a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00840-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142678658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00836-6
Iravati Ray, Shoumick Mitra, Jariya Kayee, Shufang Yuan, S. M. Shiva Nagendra, Xianfeng Wang, Reshmi Das
India, heavily reliant on coal for power generation, has been a significant emitter of particulate matter (PM) bound lead (Pb) and other heavy metals. It is crucial to understand whether implementation of stricter norms in recent years have effectively reduced emissions from coal combustion. This study aims to investigate and quantify the primary sources of PM2.5 in an area housing a major lignite-fired power plant in South India using Pb isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations. Characteristic ratios such as V/Pb and Cu/Pb demonstrate negligible influence from coal combustion, and indicate that summer aerosols are influenced by open burning. In Pb triple-isotope space the PM2.5 aerosols plot away from coal, overlapping with open burning signatures. These indicate that the atmosphere is predominantly influenced by open burning of solid waste and biomass rather than coal combustion, suggesting a promising decrease in coal emissions. Bayesian mixing model demonstrates that solid waste & biomass burning is the largest anthropogenic contributor towards atmospheric Pb (up to 26%), even in a region of coal combustion and presence of medium and small-scale industries. The dominance of open burning as a pollution source in the vicinity of a lignite fired power plant highlights the necessity for better waste management strategies.
{"title":"Dominance of open burning signatures in PM2.5 near coal plant should redefine pollutant priorities of India","authors":"Iravati Ray, Shoumick Mitra, Jariya Kayee, Shufang Yuan, S. M. Shiva Nagendra, Xianfeng Wang, Reshmi Das","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00836-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00836-6","url":null,"abstract":"India, heavily reliant on coal for power generation, has been a significant emitter of particulate matter (PM) bound lead (Pb) and other heavy metals. It is crucial to understand whether implementation of stricter norms in recent years have effectively reduced emissions from coal combustion. This study aims to investigate and quantify the primary sources of PM2.5 in an area housing a major lignite-fired power plant in South India using Pb isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations. Characteristic ratios such as V/Pb and Cu/Pb demonstrate negligible influence from coal combustion, and indicate that summer aerosols are influenced by open burning. In Pb triple-isotope space the PM2.5 aerosols plot away from coal, overlapping with open burning signatures. These indicate that the atmosphere is predominantly influenced by open burning of solid waste and biomass rather than coal combustion, suggesting a promising decrease in coal emissions. Bayesian mixing model demonstrates that solid waste & biomass burning is the largest anthropogenic contributor towards atmospheric Pb (up to 26%), even in a region of coal combustion and presence of medium and small-scale industries. The dominance of open burning as a pollution source in the vicinity of a lignite fired power plant highlights the necessity for better waste management strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00836-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00832-w
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Newman, Andrew Hoell
Climate models exhibit errors in their simulation of historical trends of variables including sea surface temperature, winds, and precipitation, with important implications for regional and global climate projections. Here, we show that the same trend errors are also present in a suite of initialised seasonal re-forecasts for the years 1993–2016. These re-forecasts are produced by operational models that are similar to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-class models and share their historical external forcings (e.g. CO2/aerosols). The trend errors, which are often well-developed at very short lead times, represent a roughly linear change in the model mean biases over the 1993–2016 re-forecast record. The similarity of trend errors in both the re-forecasts and historical simulations suggests that climate model trend errors likewise result from evolving mean biases, responding to changing external radiative forcings, instead of being an erroneous long-term response to external forcing. Therefore, these trend errors may be investigated by examining their short-lead development in initialised seasonal forecasts/re-forecasts, which we suggest should also be made by all CMIP models.
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