Pub Date : 2024-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105419
Marco Baudino
This study examines the threshold and moderating effects of oil rents on renewable energy consumption in OPEC+ members for different financial development indicators. For this, dynamic panel threshold and GMM estimators are employed for the time period 1999-2019. The empirical findings of the analysis reveal significant and negative threshold and moderating effects for financial market and total financial development, but not for financial institution development. Specifically, oil rents are found to reduce renewable energy consumption, with this negative effect becoming more pronounced at higher levels of financial market and total financial development. Overall, the results do not support the energy transition theory for OPEC+ members for which revenues from oil rents are transferred toward renewable energy investments. Rather, the presence of lobbying influences and inadequate support from financial markets and institutions is validated. These findings provide an additional debating point on the role of oil endowments on sustainable growth.
{"title":"Oil rents, renewable energy and the role of financial development: Evidence from OPEC+ members","authors":"Marco Baudino","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the threshold and moderating effects of oil rents on renewable energy consumption in OPEC+ members for different financial development indicators. For this, dynamic panel threshold and GMM estimators are employed for the time period 1999-2019. The empirical findings of the analysis reveal significant and negative threshold and moderating effects for financial market and total financial development, but not for financial institution development. Specifically, oil rents are found to reduce renewable energy consumption, with this negative effect becoming more pronounced at higher levels of financial market and total financial development. Overall, the results do not support the energy transition theory for OPEC+ members for which revenues from oil rents are transferred toward renewable energy investments. Rather, the presence of lobbying influences and inadequate support from financial markets and institutions is validated. These findings provide an additional debating point on the role of oil endowments on sustainable growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105419"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142742900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105423
Laura Buarque Andrade , Max Frenzel , Britta Bookhagen , Carolin Kresse , Michael Schmidt , Nedal Nassar , Elisa Alonso , Ensieh Shojaeddini , Dirk Sandmann
Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.
{"title":"From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects","authors":"Laura Buarque Andrade , Max Frenzel , Britta Bookhagen , Carolin Kresse , Michael Schmidt , Nedal Nassar , Elisa Alonso , Ensieh Shojaeddini , Dirk Sandmann","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105423"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142742906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105415
Xiaoyu Zhang , Yanling Xi
Private investment and green finance have significantly influenced the fossil fuel industries in various countries. This study investigates the impact of green finance and private investment on fossil fuel rents in 20 major carbon-emitting nations from 2000 to 2020. Using ARDL estimation, findings reveal that a 1% increase in green finance reduces fossil fuel rents by 0.37% in the short term and 0.40% in the long term, driven by greater investments in sustainable energy. Conversely, a 1% increase in private investment leads to a 0.17% short-term and 0.23% long-term rise in fossil fuel rents, indicating limited private green investment. To address this gap, the study recommends policies such as green bond incentives, strengthened ESG reporting, improved financial risk management, enhanced business climates, digitalization of green financial markets, and sustainable governance in the fossil fuel sector.
{"title":"Green finance, private investments and fossil fuels rents","authors":"Xiaoyu Zhang , Yanling Xi","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Private investment and green finance have significantly influenced the fossil fuel industries in various countries. This study investigates the impact of green finance and private investment on fossil fuel rents in 20 major carbon-emitting nations from 2000 to 2020. Using ARDL estimation, findings reveal that a 1% increase in green finance reduces fossil fuel rents by 0.37% in the short term and 0.40% in the long term, driven by greater investments in sustainable energy. Conversely, a 1% increase in private investment leads to a 0.17% short-term and 0.23% long-term rise in fossil fuel rents, indicating limited private green investment. To address this gap, the study recommends policies such as green bond incentives, strengthened ESG reporting, improved financial risk management, enhanced business climates, digitalization of green financial markets, and sustainable governance in the fossil fuel sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105415"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105389
Yu Li , Wei Wei
This paper explores the link between education expenditure from both public and private sectors and the alleviation of the resource curse in 11 OPEC countries from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing the PMG-ARDL estimator, the study finds that a 1% increase in state education investment results in a 0.08% short-term and a 0.17% long-term rise in oil rent. In contrast, a 1% increase in private education investment leads to a 0.10% decrease in short-term and a 0.35% decrease in long-term oil rent. The research highlights the positive effects of GDP growth, trade volume, and electricity consumption in promoting economic diversification. The findings suggest that OPEC nations should enhance private sector education investments and focus on “greening” education to foster sustainable development and economic resilience.
{"title":"Evidence of the relationship between education expenditure by state and private sectors on solving resource curse in OPEC member countries","authors":"Yu Li , Wei Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the link between education expenditure from both public and private sectors and the alleviation of the resource curse in 11 OPEC countries from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing the PMG-ARDL estimator, the study finds that a 1% increase in state education investment results in a 0.08% short-term and a 0.17% long-term rise in oil rent. In contrast, a 1% increase in private education investment leads to a 0.10% decrease in short-term and a 0.35% decrease in long-term oil rent. The research highlights the positive effects of GDP growth, trade volume, and electricity consumption in promoting economic diversification. The findings suggest that OPEC nations should enhance private sector education investments and focus on “greening” education to foster sustainable development and economic resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105389"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105427
Luis Suárez Nieto , Gregorio Fidalgo Valverde , Alicja Krzemień , Pedro Riesgo Fernández , Francisco Javier Iglesias Rodríguez
Mining projects are highly exposed to cost overruns, ahead of oil and gas, power generation and infrastructure projects. Precisely, warnings related to sharp increases in capital and production costs of around 40% are expected to be found in the corresponding literature. This paper analyses the economic risks related to capital cost presented by public investment offers in copper mining projects. To detect the economic risks of copper mining projects presented to the public, the research pays particular attention to the existing methodologies for the valuation of mining assets, as well as for the preparation of technical reports with internationally recognised codes that aim to offer the expert in charge of the valuation a series of guidelines to carry out this work. For this purpose, an in-depth study and analysis of four National Instrument 41–101 technical reports of current copper mining projects selected following criteria of geographic, business, exploitation and size diversification is carried out: Arctic Project (Northwest Alaska, United States), Kutcho Project (British Columbia, Canada), Josemaría Copper-Gold Project (San Juan, Argentina) and Eva Copper Project (Queensland, Australia). The research concludes that it would be advisable that mining companies and, especially, Competent persons responsible for preparing technical reports apply the recommended practices, being extremely conservative with the ranges of precision and contingencies contemplated in each phase. It should be a significant turning point for the sector, which, to prosper and reinforce investment decisions, must leverage transmitting trust, transparency, cleanliness and professionalism to the market.
与石油和天然气、发电和基础设施项目相比，采矿项目极易出现成本超支。确切地说，在相应的文献中可以发现与资本和生产成本急剧增加 40% 左右有关的警告。本文分析了铜矿项目公共投资报价中与资本成本相关的经济风险。为了发现铜矿开采项目的经济风险，本研究特别关注了现有的矿业资产评估方法，以及国际公认的技术报告编写规范，这些规范旨在为负责评估的专家提供一系列开展这项工作的指导。为此，我们对目前铜矿项目的四份国家文件 41-101 技术报告进行了深入研究和分析，这些报告是按照地理、业务、开采和规模多样化的标准选定的：北极项目（美国阿拉斯加西北部）、Kutcho 项目（加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省）、Josemaría 铜金项目（阿根廷圣胡安）和 Eva 铜矿项目（澳大利亚昆士兰）。研究得出的结论是，矿业公司，尤其是负责编写技术报告的合资格人士，最好采用建议的做法，对每个阶段的精度范围和考虑的意外情况采取极为保守的态度。这应该是该行业的一个重要转折点，该行业要想繁荣和加强投资决策，就必须向市场传递信任、透明、廉洁和专业精神。
{"title":"Economic risks in mining investments: A prospective analysis of capital cost estimation in copper mining projects","authors":"Luis Suárez Nieto , Gregorio Fidalgo Valverde , Alicja Krzemień , Pedro Riesgo Fernández , Francisco Javier Iglesias Rodríguez","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mining projects are highly exposed to cost overruns, ahead of oil and gas, power generation and infrastructure projects. Precisely, warnings related to sharp increases in capital and production costs of around 40% are expected to be found in the corresponding literature. This paper analyses the economic risks related to capital cost presented by public investment offers in copper mining projects. To detect the economic risks of copper mining projects presented to the public, the research pays particular attention to the existing methodologies for the valuation of mining assets, as well as for the preparation of technical reports with internationally recognised codes that aim to offer the expert in charge of the valuation a series of guidelines to carry out this work. For this purpose, an in-depth study and analysis of four National Instrument 41–101 technical reports of current copper mining projects selected following criteria of geographic, business, exploitation and size diversification is carried out: Arctic Project (Northwest Alaska, United States), Kutcho Project (British Columbia, Canada), Josemaría Copper-Gold Project (San Juan, Argentina) and Eva Copper Project (Queensland, Australia). The research concludes that it would be advisable that mining companies and, especially, Competent persons responsible for preparing technical reports apply the recommended practices, being extremely conservative with the ranges of precision and contingencies contemplated in each phase. It should be a significant turning point for the sector, which, to prosper and reinforce investment decisions, must leverage transmitting trust, transparency, cleanliness and professionalism to the market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105427"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105420
Tufail Muhammad , Guohua Ni , Zhenling Chen , Sabrine Mallek , Marek Dudek , Grzegorz Mentel
This study explores the impact of oil resource abundance on industrial structure in 57 oil-exporting countries within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 1990 to 2020. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) models, the research highlights a negative correlation between oil exports and industrial structure dimensions. Countries such as Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Chad, Congo, Iraq, and Libya are particularly affected by the resource curse, facing slower industrial development, while China, Lithuania, Malaysia, and New Zealand demonstrate resilience and positive industrial outcomes. The study also shows that oil abundance influences foreign direct investment (FDI), though this influx does not consistently translate into industrial growth. Policymakers are advised to implement strategies that balance oil revenue management, promote industrial diversification, and align education spending with industry needs. Trade openness is also emphasized as key to fostering industrial progress. These findings offer critical guidance for addressing the resource curse and achieving long-term sustainable industrial growth.
{"title":"Addressing resource curse: How mineral resources influence industrial structure dynamics of the BRI 57 oil-exporting countries","authors":"Tufail Muhammad , Guohua Ni , Zhenling Chen , Sabrine Mallek , Marek Dudek , Grzegorz Mentel","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of oil resource abundance on industrial structure in 57 oil-exporting countries within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 1990 to 2020. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) models, the research highlights a negative correlation between oil exports and industrial structure dimensions. Countries such as Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Chad, Congo, Iraq, and Libya are particularly affected by the resource curse, facing slower industrial development, while China, Lithuania, Malaysia, and New Zealand demonstrate resilience and positive industrial outcomes. The study also shows that oil abundance influences foreign direct investment (FDI), though this influx does not consistently translate into industrial growth. Policymakers are advised to implement strategies that balance oil revenue management, promote industrial diversification, and align education spending with industry needs. Trade openness is also emphasized as key to fostering industrial progress. These findings offer critical guidance for addressing the resource curse and achieving long-term sustainable industrial growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105420"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing demand for clean minerals and the rise of new-age technologies present significant challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. This study aims to explore how artificial intelligence (AI) and financial technology (FinTech) affect the exploitation of clean minerals in the pursuit of sustainable development. Employing wavelet analysis and quantile value-at-risk (QVaR), we provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationships, risks, and returns associated between clean minerals and these technological innovations. Our wavelet findings indicate that there are strong co-movements for aluminum, copper, and zinc with various clean and technological indices while nickel shows weak co-movements. Our QVaR results reveal significant differences in risk and return profiles across indices, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward nature of clean and technological sectors. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating AI and FinTech into regulatory frameworks and industry practices, advocating for a collaborative approach to leverage these technologies to influence the exploitation of clean minerals toward greater sustainability. Therefore, the novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive methodological approach to scrutinize the linkages between clean minerals and new-age technologies, with significant multi-stakeholder implications for policy and practice, aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
{"title":"AI, FinTech and clean minerals: A wavelet analysis and quantile value-at-risk investigation","authors":"Sitara Karim , Afzol Husain , Weng Marc Lim , Ling-Foon Chan , Shehnaz Tehseen","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing demand for clean minerals and the rise of new-age technologies present significant challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. This study aims to explore how artificial intelligence (AI) and financial technology (FinTech) affect the exploitation of clean minerals in the pursuit of sustainable development. Employing wavelet analysis and quantile value-at-risk (QVaR), we provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationships, risks, and returns associated between clean minerals and these technological innovations. Our wavelet findings indicate that there are strong co-movements for aluminum, copper, and zinc with various clean and technological indices while nickel shows weak co-movements. Our QVaR results reveal significant differences in risk and return profiles across indices, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward nature of clean and technological sectors. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating AI and FinTech into regulatory frameworks and industry practices, advocating for a collaborative approach to leverage these technologies to influence the exploitation of clean minerals toward greater sustainability. Therefore, the novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive methodological approach to scrutinize the linkages between clean minerals and new-age technologies, with significant multi-stakeholder implications for policy and practice, aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105320"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Coal, as the primary energy source in China, significantly affects the country's energy security and national economic stability. However, the highly nonlinear and non-stationary nature of coal prices poses challenges for accurate forecasting. In this study, we propose the Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods series model based on the "divide and conquer" approach to predict the Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), involving the integration of multiple methods, including ANN, CNN, LSTM, GRU, LightGBM, and ERT. Unlike conventional univariate forecasting, we comprehensively summarise the factors influencing coal prices into eight categories, totalling 27 variables, with the aim of capturing more meaningful information. By employing the window-rolling decomposition-ensemble forecasting method, we effectively avoided information leakage and boundary effects, leading to a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods outperforms other Rolling Methods in terms of accuracy and stability. Novel variables, such as attention, and the other seven categories of influencing factors contribute to enhanced prediction accuracy, among which past coal prices exhibit higher importance in determining forecast results. The findings offer valuable guidance to coal enterprises in making production decisions and provide a basis for the government to formulate macroeconomic energy policies.
{"title":"Predicting China's thermal coal price: Does multivariate decomposition-integrated forecasting model with window rolling work?","authors":"Qihui Shao , Yongqiang Du , Wenxuan Xue , Zhiyuan Yang , Zhenxin Jia , Xianzhu Shao , Xue Xu , Hongbo Duan , Zhipeng Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coal, as the primary energy source in China, significantly affects the country's energy security and national economic stability. However, the highly nonlinear and non-stationary nature of coal prices poses challenges for accurate forecasting. In this study, we propose the Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods series model based on the \"divide and conquer\" approach to predict the Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), involving the integration of multiple methods, including ANN, CNN, LSTM, GRU, LightGBM, and ERT. Unlike conventional univariate forecasting, we comprehensively summarise the factors influencing coal prices into eight categories, totalling 27 variables, with the aim of capturing more meaningful information. By employing the window-rolling decomposition-ensemble forecasting method, we effectively avoided information leakage and boundary effects, leading to a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed Rolling ICEEMDAN-Methods outperforms other Rolling Methods in terms of accuracy and stability. Novel variables, such as attention, and the other seven categories of influencing factors contribute to enhanced prediction accuracy, among which past coal prices exhibit higher importance in determining forecast results. The findings offer valuable guidance to coal enterprises in making production decisions and provide a basis for the government to formulate macroeconomic energy policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105410"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105417
Lu Tong , Yong Geng , Yueru Mei , Ziyan Gao , Sijie Liu
Zinc is one of strategic metals for economic advancement owing to its extensive utilization in various sectors. China is the largest zinc producer and consumer in the world and plays an important role in the global zinc supply chain. However, a clear picture of zinc metabolism, including its flows and stocks, remains unclear in China. This study investigates the anthropogenic zinc cycle within China's mainland for a period of 2000–2021 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis approach. Our results indicate that the demand for zinc ores increased from 1.86 Mt (megatons) in 2000 to 7.77 Mt in 2021, while the domestic zinc consumption increased from 1.51 Mt in 2000 to 6.39 Mt in 2021. In the use stage, galvanized zinc products dominated zinc consumption with a proportion of 62.49%, with the construction sector serving as the largest end-user with a proportion of 44.17%. However, the average zinc recycling rate was only 49.4%, primarily from new scraps collected in the manufacturing stage. In order to respond to the ambitious carbon neutrality target and rapid urbanization, the Chinese government has implemented mining restriction policies to curb domestic emissions, which induced more zinc imports. Consequently, the reliance on international trade increased from 27.57% in 2013 to 46.77% in 2021. Based upon these findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including preparing regulatory frameworks, promoting technological advancements, and applying various economic instruments. These recommendations can facilitate sustainable zinc resource management.
{"title":"Mapping the anthropogenic zinc cycle in China from 2000 to 2021: A dynamic material flow analysis","authors":"Lu Tong , Yong Geng , Yueru Mei , Ziyan Gao , Sijie Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Zinc is one of strategic metals for economic advancement owing to its extensive utilization in various sectors. China is the largest zinc producer and consumer in the world and plays an important role in the global zinc supply chain. However, a clear picture of zinc metabolism, including its flows and stocks, remains unclear in China. This study investigates the anthropogenic zinc cycle within China's mainland for a period of 2000–2021 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis approach. Our results indicate that the demand for zinc ores increased from 1.86 Mt (megatons) in 2000 to 7.77 Mt in 2021, while the domestic zinc consumption increased from 1.51 Mt in 2000 to 6.39 Mt in 2021. In the use stage, galvanized zinc products dominated zinc consumption with a proportion of 62.49%, with the construction sector serving as the largest end-user with a proportion of 44.17%. However, the average zinc recycling rate was only 49.4%, primarily from new scraps collected in the manufacturing stage. In order to respond to the ambitious carbon neutrality target and rapid urbanization, the Chinese government has implemented mining restriction policies to curb domestic emissions, which induced more zinc imports. Consequently, the reliance on international trade increased from 27.57% in 2013 to 46.77% in 2021. Based upon these findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including preparing regulatory frameworks, promoting technological advancements, and applying various economic instruments. These recommendations can facilitate sustainable zinc resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105417"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-21DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105399
Taşkın Deniz Yıldız
The need for a sustainable mining waste management/legislation and mineral recovery from tailings is increasing day by day in the world. There is a need to draw a perspective for mining companies and public authorities & Sustainable Development Organizations (SDOs) on the sustainable recovery of mine waste from both mining operations and urban mining. Although there are many publications in the literature on mineral recovery from mine wastes, there is a lack of a study that will respond to the information needs of public authorities & SDOs in terms of both mining enterprises and urban mining sector on sustainable mineral recovery by covering the latest developments in the world and making the distinction between waste and tailing. Considering this deficiency in the literature, this study firstly emphasizes the on-site mitigation of mine wastes and their environmental impacts, and briefly discusses mine wastes & tailings dams in the mining process. Then, the mitigation of negative environmental impacts in landfills and the feasibility of mineral recovery from mining tailings and urban mining wastes are evaluated. Finally, the objective of mineral recovery in the context of sustainable development and legislative efforts are discussed. The results of the study are as follows: The wastes generated as a result of mining operations have increased worldwide. These mine wastes are used to recycle mines. The necessity and nature of the recovery of minerals from wastes necessitates the efficient management of these wastes. At this point, there is a need for effective and up-to-date mining waste legislation, incentives and practices to ensure an sustainable mining waste management and optimum mineral recovery from mining tailings. The categories of "mineral recovery from mining tailings" and "mineral recycling from urban mining waste" were compared by assigning an estimated score out of ten, considering the level of development of the countries and the characteristics of the categories. In this comparison, the contribution/relationships of the activities in these categories to different sustainability criteria are shown and in-text citations are considered in the scoring. By considering these contribution levels or lack thereof, countries with different levels of development in different geographies around the world can develop their mineral waste management and mineral recovery policies in much more detail, considering their mineral requirements and waste inventories. This study may contribute to less mineral waste generation and cleaner, more efficient, and sustainable mineral recovery in mining operations, thanks to the awareness it will create for mining companies and public authorities & SDOs. This study serves as a guide for SDOs and countries’ policymakers & mining sector on mineral recovery from waste in countries.
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