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Revisiting the resource curse: Natural resource rents as drivers of economic growth in Ghana using advanced nonlinear techniques 重新审视资源诅咒:利用先进的非线性技术,自然资源租金作为加纳经济增长的驱动力
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105766
Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh , Mohammed Musah , Thomas Appiah , Felix Kwabena Danso
Given that Ghana has implemented progressive governance frameworks including the Petroleum Revenue Management Act (2011) and established the Public Interest and Accountability Committee to manage its diverse natural resource endowments, this study assesses the impacts of natural resource rents, financial development, trade openness, and urbanisation on Ghana's economic growth performances while examining whether resource curse effects operate at the sectoral rather than country level. In this regard, this study uses annual data spanning from 1980 to 2021 and employs advanced nonlinear econometric techniques, including Kernel-based Regularised Least Squares (KRLS) and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR), to capture heterogeneous relationships across the growth distribution. According to the findings, Ghana simultaneously experiences both blessings and curses in terms of resources across various sectors. Specifically, mineral rents and oil rents exhibit positive growth effects, while forest rents and natural gas rents demonstrate negative impacts. Financial development shows threshold effects, influencing growth only beyond certain maturity levels, while urbanisation consistently drives growth across all quantiles. Trade openness exhibits conditional relationships with adverse effects at lower development stages that improve at higher stages. Furthermore, the Granger causality test findings reveal bidirectional relationships between urbanisation and economic growth, as well as unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development. These results have important policy implications, particularly for Ghana's prospects of transforming resource curse sectors into blessing sectors through differentiated governance strategies. Considering the key findings, the Ghanaian government should strengthen regulatory frameworks and transparency mechanisms in curse sectors (forest and natural gas) by adopting institutional arrangements similar to those successfully implemented in the blessing sectors (mining and oil). Further, to maximise growth benefits, the government should pursue sequenced financial sector development, recognising threshold effects. It should carefully stage trade liberalisation to ensure domestic industrial competitiveness and sustain urban development investments. Additionally, implementing balanced regional development strategies will address urban-rural disparities and ensure inclusive growth across Ghana's diverse economic landscape.
鉴于加纳已经实施了包括《石油收入管理法》(2011年)在内的渐进式治理框架,并建立了公共利益和问责委员会来管理其多样化的自然资源禀赋,本研究评估了自然资源租金、金融发展、贸易开放和城市化对加纳经济增长表现的影响,同时考察了资源诅咒效应是否在部门而不是国家层面上发挥作用。在这方面,本研究使用了1980年至2021年的年度数据,并采用了先进的非线性计量经济学技术,包括基于核的正则化最小二乘(KRLS)和分位数对分位数回归(QQR),以捕捉整个增长分布中的异质关系。根据调查结果,加纳在各个部门的资源方面同时经历了祝福和诅咒。具体而言,矿产租金和石油租金表现为正增长效应,而森林租金和天然气租金表现为负增长效应。金融发展表现出阈值效应,仅在某些成熟度水平以上才会影响增长,而城市化则持续推动所有分位数的增长。贸易开放在较低发展阶段表现出不利影响的条件关系,在较高发展阶段有所改善。此外,格兰杰因果检验结果揭示了城镇化与经济增长之间的双向关系,以及经济增长与金融发展之间的单向因果关系。这些结果具有重要的政策意义,特别是对于加纳通过差异化治理战略将资源诅咒部门转变为祝福部门的前景。考虑到主要发现,加纳政府应通过采用类似于成功实施的福利部门(采矿和石油)的制度安排,加强诅咒部门(森林和天然气)的监管框架和透明度机制。此外,为了实现增长效益最大化,政府应追求有序的金融业发展,认识到门槛效应。中国应谨慎推进贸易自由化,以确保国内工业竞争力,并维持城市发展投资。此外,实施平衡的区域发展战略将解决城乡差距问题,确保加纳多样化经济格局的包容性增长。
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引用次数: 0
From opposition to conditional acceptance: Corporate environmental and socio-economic engagement in critical minerals mining in Michigan 从反对到有条件接受:密歇根州关键矿产开采中的企业环境和社会经济参与
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105760
Raphael Deberdt , Nicole M. Smith , Aaron Malone , Robin Bullock
Eagle Mine, a subsidiary of Lundin Mining, is the only primary nickel producer in the United States. Located near the shores of Lake Superior in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the mine faced significant opposition in the beginning of the project. Community members mobilized against the mine's potential for environmental pollution, the impacts of its proposed transportation corridors, and the possible destruction of a culturally significant site. Informed by 24 interviews with political, corporate, economic, and social leaders, site visits, and an in-depth analysis of literature, this article examines the shift in community perceptions of the mine, from opposition to conditional acceptance. We introduce the concept of post-opening acceptance to describe the slow acceptance of industrial infrastructure, in this case a mine, that emerges during the operations phase, despite opposition earlier on. Post-opening acceptance of Eagle Mine was achieved in part, through community-based environmental monitoring and community economic and educational engagement initiatives. However, this acceptance remains contingent on the company's sustained performance, including the absence of acute and chronic environmental impacts, continuous community support, and a visible and accessible presence. This research brings new layers to the SLO and CSR scholarship. It places post-opening acceptance between the consensual approach that mining companies often describe in their community relationship efforts and the most conflictual community-company interactions that have long defined the extractive sector.
鹰矿(Eagle Mine)是伦丁矿业(Lundin Mining)的子公司,是美国唯一的初级镍生产商。该矿位于密歇根州上半岛的苏必利尔湖岸边附近,在项目开始时面临着巨大的反对。社区成员动员起来,反对该矿可能造成的环境污染、拟议的运输走廊的影响,以及可能破坏具有重要文化意义的地点。通过对24位政治、企业、经济和社会领袖的采访、实地考察和对文献的深入分析,本文考察了社区对该矿的看法从反对到有条件接受的转变。我们引入开放后验收的概念来描述工业基础设施的缓慢验收,在本例中是矿山,尽管早期反对,但在运营阶段出现。通过社区环境监测和社区经济和教育参与倡议,鹰矿的开矿验收部分实现了。然而,这种接受仍然取决于公司的持续表现,包括没有急性和慢性环境影响,持续的社区支持,以及可见和可访问的存在。本研究为企业社会责任与企业社会责任研究带来了新的内涵。它将开放后的接受置于矿业公司在其社区关系努力中经常描述的共识方法与长期以来定义采掘业的最具冲突的社区-公司互动之间。
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引用次数: 0
Green but different: ESG component effects in mineral sector portfolios using advanced risk metrics and optimization algorithms 绿色但不同:使用先进风险指标和优化算法的矿产部门投资组合中的ESG成分效应
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105764
Zahra Hosseini Vajari , Gholamreza Mansourfar , Fahimeh Biglari , Tohid Ghanizadeh Bolandi
This study examines the distinct effects of Environmental (E), Social (S), and Governance (G) components on portfolio performance in the mining sector. Using 2017–2021 data and the Glue VaR risk metric, we compared two optimization algorithms (QPA and MIPSO), finding QPA superior for constructing optimal portfolios. Employing QPA and supplementary Mean-Variance analysis, results clearly demonstrated that the Environmental (E) component is the most significant driver of risk-adjusted returns, consistently outperforming both Governance (G) and Social (S) factors. These findings offer crucial insights for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers in the mineral sector, highlighting the need for differentiated ESG evaluation frameworks.
本研究考察了环境(E)、社会(S)和治理(G)三个组成部分对矿业部门投资组合绩效的不同影响。使用2017-2021年的数据和Glue VaR风险指标,我们比较了两种优化算法(QPA和MIPSO),发现QPA更适合构建最优投资组合。采用QPA和补充均值方差分析,结果清楚地表明,环境(E)成分是风险调整后收益的最重要驱动因素,始终优于治理(G)和社会(S)因素。这些发现为矿产行业的投资者、投资组合经理和政策制定者提供了重要见解,强调了建立差异化ESG评估框架的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Military intervention in informal mining: Allegations of bias and power dynamics in local and foreign mining operations 对非正式采矿的军事干预:对当地和外国采矿作业中的偏见和权力动态的指控
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105761
Kenneth Joseph Bansah , Abigail Boafo , Paul Junior Acquah , Benitta Wiafe , Lilian Owusu
This study examines how artisanal and small-scale miners perceive military interventions. Drawing on field interviews conducted in southwestern Ghana and informed by the concepts of social justice and unintended consequences, the findings reveal that enforcement actions disproportionately target local miners, while foreign operators, particularly Chinese nationals, often avoid penalties. Miners report arrests, extortion, destruction of equipment, and physical abuse, reinforcing widespread perceptions of corruption and bias shaped by social and political connections. To explain this dynamic, the study introduces the Informal Mining Repression Cycle, which illustrates how military interventions fail to deter informal mining, entrench social and economic inequalities, and sustain its persistence. Many miners, facing unemployment and lacking viable alternatives, return to mining despite repeated crackdowns. Military enforcement is perceived as selective, inconsistent, and influenced by bribery and favoritism. Those without connections face harsher treatment, while individuals with political or financial backing often avoid sanctions. The findings highlight the limitations of militarized responses and point to the need for transparent, accountable, and development-oriented approaches. Even if military interventions are considered necessary, rotating enforcement personnel, enhancing oversight, and addressing the underlying economic, governance, and systemic drivers are essential steps toward disrupting the cycle of repression and achieving more sustainable outcomes.
本研究考察了手工和小规模矿工如何看待军事干预。根据在加纳西南部进行的实地采访,并根据社会正义和意外后果的概念,调查结果显示,执法行动不成比例地针对当地矿工,而外国运营商,特别是中国公民,往往逃避处罚。矿工们报告了逮捕、勒索、破坏设备和身体虐待的情况,这加强了人们对腐败和社会和政治关系造成的偏见的普遍看法。为了解释这一动态,该研究引入了非正式采矿镇压周期,该周期说明了军事干预如何未能阻止非正式采矿,巩固社会和经济不平等,并维持其持久性。许多矿工面临失业和缺乏可行的替代选择,尽管政府一再打压,他们还是回到了采矿业。军事执法被认为是有选择性的、不一致的,并受到贿赂和偏袒的影响。那些没有关系的人面临更严厉的待遇,而有政治或经济背景的人往往可以避免制裁。调查结果强调了军事化应对的局限性,并指出需要采取透明、负责任和面向发展的方法。即使军事干预被认为是必要的,轮换执法人员,加强监督,解决潜在的经济、治理和系统驱动因素是打破镇压循环和实现更可持续成果的必要步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing critical mineral occurrence in battery technologies 评估电池技术中关键矿物的含量
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105755
Elsa Camuamba , Bruno Damásio , Sandro Mendonça
The prevailing geopolitical context has amplified the centrality of core material inputs in the interaction between technological innovation, economic security, and the climate emergency. Battery technologies represent one of the frontiers in this evolving landscape. In this paper, we examine the link between innovation in these technologies and their material inputs, assessed in terms of mineral occurrence in a sample of 33,036 full-text battery patents published from 2000 to 2021. Our findings, which cover 19 battery technologies, show that, on average, battery technologies increasingly rely on critical minerals. The analysis further reveals a rich tapestry of critical minerals beyond the conventional set of key battery minerals, namely lithium. Evidence shows that chromium, gallium, germanium, molybdenum, niobium, phosphate, silicon, tantalum, tellurium, titanium, and zirconium are all growing in relative importance. Analysis of battery technology specialisation profiles and patterns further highlight inventor countries’ critical mineral needs. While the United States has grown more specialised in sodium-ion batteries, China shows a relative advantage in magnesium-ion, sodium-ion and lithium-ion batteries. Significantly, these patterns similarly reflect diverging paradigmatic shifts in battery innovation along a global “North-South” divide. We conclude with a discussion of potential pathways for battery development and propose avenues for further enquiry at the interface of mineral criticality and geoeconomics.
当前的地缘政治背景放大了核心物质投入在技术创新、经济安全和气候紧急情况之间相互作用中的中心地位。电池技术代表了这一不断发展的领域的前沿之一。在本文中,我们研究了这些技术的创新与其材料投入之间的联系,并根据2000年至2021年发表的33,036个全文电池专利样本中的矿物含量进行了评估。我们的研究涵盖了19种电池技术,结果表明,平均而言,电池技术越来越依赖于关键矿物质。分析进一步揭示了除了传统的关键电池矿物(即锂)之外,还有丰富的关键矿物。有证据表明,铬、镓、锗、钼、铌、磷酸盐、硅、钽、碲、钛和锆的相对重要性都在增长。对电池技术专业化概况和模式的分析进一步突出了发明国的关键矿物需求。虽然美国在钠离子电池方面变得更加专业化,但中国在镁离子、钠离子和锂离子电池方面显示出相对优势。值得注意的是,这些模式同样反映了电池创新沿着全球“南北”鸿沟的不同范式转变。最后,我们讨论了电池发展的潜在途径,并提出了在矿物临界性和地缘经济学的界面上进一步研究的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Anticipatory CSR: Legitimacy politics in Uganda's pre-production oil sector 预期的企业社会责任:乌干达生产前石油部门的合法性政治
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105756
Laura Smith, Anne Tallontire, James Van Alstine
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become a taken-for-granted practice used by the global extractive industries, yet its role in the early stages of large-scale oil and mining projects remains underexplored. This paper presents a longitudinal study of how Western and Chinese oil companies implemented CSR in Uganda's Albertine Graben between 2006 and 2016. Drawing on over a hundred interviews and document analysis, we trace how CSR shifted from ad hoc local philanthropy to more professionalised and strategically targeted interventions as companies sought to establish operations over an unusually long exploration period. Using the lens of political CSR, we show how CSR functioned as an anticipatory political practice, through which companies negotiated legitimacy across scales, managed elite relationships, and shaped regulatory space before oil production began. We further demonstrate that CSR operated as political currency, strategically deployed to secure economic and political licences by negotiating with local communities, subnational elites, and national government actors. While companies framed CSR around the ‘social licence to operate’, in practice the economic and political licences took precedence as firms sought to mitigate risk, secure investor confidence, and manage state relations. The findings extend debates on political CSR by highlighting its anticipatory role, its use as political currency, and its implications for governance and benefit-sharing in Africa's contemporary extractive industries.
企业社会责任(CSR)已经成为全球采掘业使用的一种理所当然的做法,但它在大型石油和采矿项目早期阶段的作用仍未得到充分探索。本文对2006年至2016年西方和中国石油公司在乌干达艾伯丁地堑实施企业社会责任的情况进行了纵向研究。通过一百多次访谈和文献分析,我们追踪了企业社会责任是如何从临时的地方慈善事业转变为更专业、更有战略针对性的干预措施的,因为企业寻求在异常漫长的探索期内建立业务。通过政治企业社会责任的视角,我们展示了企业社会责任是如何作为一种预期的政治实践发挥作用的,通过这种实践,企业可以在石油生产开始之前就规模上的合法性进行谈判,管理精英关系,并塑造监管空间。我们进一步证明,企业社会责任作为政治货币运作,通过与当地社区、次国家精英和国家政府行为者谈判,战略性地部署以获得经济和政治许可。虽然企业将企业社会责任框架围绕“社会经营许可证”,但在实践中,经济和政治许可证优先考虑,因为企业寻求降低风险,确保投资者信心,并管理国家关系。研究结果通过强调政治企业社会责任的预期作用、作为政治货币的用途及其对非洲当代采掘业治理和利益分享的影响,扩展了关于政治企业社会责任的辩论。
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引用次数: 0
Occupational health and safety concerns in the artisanal and small-scale mining sector: A review 手工和小规模采矿部门的职业健康和安全问题:审查
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105733
Gavin Hilson
This review examines the health and safety record in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, offering explanations as to why problems in this area have persisted and intensified over time. It argues that most of the health and safety concerns on display at ASM sites worldwide are attributable to the sector's confinement to the informal economy. After reviewing scholarly work that singles out and examines the pervasiveness of individual health and safety concerns in ASM, and attempts made to address them, the paper pivots to four country cases – Brazil, Colombia, Uganda and Zimbabwe – where research is currently being undertaken by the author and colleagues to profile more closely the health and safety record of the sector. These cases are used to reinforce the argument that the poor health and safety record of the ASM sector is linked to its persistent informality, which regulations and policies are responsible for ‘creating’.
本审查审查了手工和小规模采矿(ASM)部门的健康和安全记录,解释了为什么这一领域的问题持续存在并随着时间的推移而加剧。它认为,在世界各地的ASM现场展示的大多数健康和安全问题都可归因于该部门被限制在非正规经济中。在回顾了一些学术工作,这些工作挑选出并检查了ASM中普遍存在的个人健康和安全问题,并试图解决这些问题之后,本文将重点放在四个国家的案例上——巴西、哥伦比亚、乌干达和津巴布韦——作者和同事们目前正在对这些国家进行研究,以更密切地了解该部门的健康和安全记录。这些案例被用来加强这样一种观点,即ASM部门的不良健康和安全记录与其持续的非正式性有关,而这种非正式性是法规和政策造成的。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable mining development in Ghana: An integrated AHP-TOPSIS-Manhattan distance approach 加纳可持续矿业发展:ahp - topsis -曼哈顿距离综合方法
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105757
Mohammed Gadafi Tamimu , Decui Liang
This study presents a comprehensive, expert-guided decision-support framework for assessing the sustainability performance of mining operations in Ghana. To tackle the persistent challenges of illegal mining and advocate for improved resource management in the country, the study employs an integrated decision-making model incorporating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Manhattan Distance. The framework aims to improve ranking sensitivity, mitigate distortion from extreme scores, and offer a transparent, replicable approach for evaluating lawful mining sites according to many sustainability criteria. Twelve sustainability indicators spanning policy, technical, organizational, and environmental dimensions were evaluated utilizing data gathered from 20 business and academic experts. Five legally recognized and geographically dispersed mining sites were assessed: Newmont Golden Ridge Ltd. (Akyem), AngloGold Ashanti (Obuasi), Gold Fields Ghana Ltd. (Tarkwa), Chirano Gold Mines Ltd.(Bibiani), and Cardinal Namdini Mining Ltd. (Bolgatanga). The model demonstrated considerable variations in performance among regions. Newmont Akyem distinguished itself as the highest-performing site because to its strong environmental practices and adherence to regulations, whilst Namdini placed lowest, revealing deficiencies in community integration and environmental management. The sensitivity analysis validated the resilience of the results across several weighting situations. The findings highlight the necessity for tailored policy interventions, strategic investment prioritization, and governance assistance to enhance sustainability outcomes. This research presents methodological enhancements beyond conventional instruments such as the Best–Worst Method (BWM), establishing a scalable framework for sustainable mining evaluation and decision-making in Ghana and analogous environments.
本研究提出了一个全面的、专家指导的决策支持框架,用于评估加纳采矿业务的可持续性绩效。为了解决非法采矿的持续挑战并倡导改善该国的资源管理,该研究采用了一种综合决策模型,该模型结合了层次分析法(AHP)、理想解决方案相似性排序偏好技术(TOPSIS)和曼哈顿距离。该框架旨在提高排名的敏感性,减轻极端分数的扭曲,并根据许多可持续性标准提供透明、可复制的方法来评估合法的采矿地点。利用从20位商业和学术专家收集的数据,对涵盖政策、技术、组织和环境维度的12项可持续性指标进行了评估。评估了5个法律认可且地理位置分散的矿区:Newmont Golden Ridge Ltd (Akyem)、AngloGold Ashanti (Obuasi)、Gold Fields Ghana Ltd (Tarkwa)、Chirano Gold Mines Ltd (Bibiani)和Cardinal Namdini mining Ltd (Bolgatanga)。该模型显示,不同地区的表现差异很大。Newmont Akyem因其强大的环保实践和对法规的遵守而成为表现最好的场地,而Namdini排名最低,暴露了社区整合和环境管理方面的不足。敏感性分析验证了结果在几个加权情况下的弹性。研究结果强调,有必要采取有针对性的政策干预措施、确定战略投资的优先次序和提供治理援助,以提高可持续性成果。本研究提出了超越传统工具(如最佳最差方法(BWM))的方法改进,为加纳和类似环境的可持续采矿评估和决策建立了一个可扩展的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of semi-mobile in-pit crushing and conveying production scheduling 半移动式坑内破碎输送生产调度优化
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105751
Mohammad Shamsi , Mohammad Ataei , Micah Nehring , Yashar Pourrahimian
One of the most important problems of open-pit mining is the transportation system's high cost, accounting for up to 50 % of operating costs. Nowadays, In-Pit Crushing and Conveying systems (IPCC) receive more awareness and attention because of lower operating costs and compatible environment-friendly conditions against traditional Truck and Shovel system (TS). This paper describes the principle elements of Semi-Mobile In-Pit Crushing and Conveying haulage system (SMIPCC) production scheduling. A mathematical Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model was developed to maximize the Net Present Value (NPV) of long-term open-pit mine production scheduling considering the SMIPCC for concurrently transporting ore and waste material. The model simultaneously determines the production schedule while considering the waste and ore semi-mobile crusher's optimum number, location, relocation time, and future positioning. The crusher's capacity and relocation time consumption due to a decreasing production rate are also considered. This approach aims to maximize the NPV and ensure a suitable feed for the processing plant over the mine life, considering all mining and transportation constraints and treating these factors as a joint optimization problem. The model is subsequently applied to a case study to determine the variables' optimal values and highlight the importance of the interconnected factors within the proposed comprehensive approach.
露天采矿最重要的问题之一是运输系统的高成本,占到运营成本的50%。目前,井下破碎输送系统(IPCC)因其较低的运行成本和与传统的卡车和铲系统(TS)兼容的环境友好性而受到越来越多的关注和重视。介绍了半移动式井下破碎输送运输系统(SMIPCC)生产调度的基本原理。为使长期露天矿生产计划的净现值(NPV)最大化,考虑矿废同时运输的SMIPCC,建立了数学混合整数线性规划(MILP)优化模型。该模型在考虑废矿半移动式破碎机的最优数量、位置、搬迁时间和未来定位的同时确定生产计划。还考虑了由于生产率下降而导致的破碎机容量和重新定位时间的消耗。该方法考虑了所有采矿和运输约束,并将这些因素视为一个联合优化问题,旨在最大化NPV并确保在矿山生命周期内为加工厂提供合适的饲料。该模型随后被应用到一个案例研究中,以确定变量的最优值,并强调在所提出的综合方法中相互关联的因素的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Deconstructing cost overrun and delay in mining projects: A system-based model of prices, quantities, and time 解构采矿项目的成本超支和延迟:基于系统的价格、数量和时间模型
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105754
Patricio Faúndez , Juan Ignacio Guzmán
Cost overruns and project delays are persistent challenges in mining project development, with far-reaching financial and economic implications. This study analyzes a unique dataset of 256 observations from 202 mining projects across six continents, spanning evaluation periods from 1994 to 2020. We propose and empirically test a decomposition of capital cost overruns into price-driven (Δp) and quantity-driven (Δq) components. This framework allows for a more granular understanding of the internal and external drivers of deviation and, to our knowledge, represents the first application of a simultaneous system of equations linking Δp, Δq, and project delay (Δτ) in the mining sector.
The results validate three key hypotheses: (1) Using the reduced-form solution of the simultaneous system, we find that a one-month structural delay shock is associated, on average, with a 0.30 % increase in input prices and a 0.38 % increase in project quantities. Under the cost overrun identity, these marginal effects jointly imply an average 0.68 % monthly increase in total project cost; (2) increases in prices and quantities significantly contribute to schedule delays, confirming a feedback loop; and (3) prices and quantities exhibit a statistically significant inverse relationship, suggesting a substitution dynamic under budget pressure.
These results underscore the need for a systems-based approach to project planning and risk management. The study offers practical recommendations for firms and policymakers, including the use of early-warning indicators, scenario-based contingency planning, and countercyclical investment strategies. By providing the first empirical validation of this structural framework in mining megaprojects, the paper advances both academic understanding and industry practice in capital project governance.
成本超支和项目延误是采矿项目开发的长期挑战,具有深远的财政和经济影响。本研究分析了一个独特的数据集,其中包含来自六大洲202个采矿项目的256个观测数据,涵盖了1994年至2020年的评估期。我们提出并实证测试了资本成本超支分解为价格驱动(Δp)和数量驱动(Δq)组件。该框架允许对偏差的内部和外部驱动因素进行更细致的理解,据我们所知,它代表了在采矿部门连接Δp、Δq和项目延迟(Δτ)的同步方程组的首次应用。结果验证了三个关键假设:(1)使用同步系统的简化解,我们发现一个月的结构延迟冲击与投入价格平均增加0.30%和工程量增加0.38%相关。在成本超支的情况下,这些边际效应共同意味着项目总成本平均每月增加0.68%;(2)价格和数量的增加显著导致了进度延迟,确认了一个反馈回路;(3)价格与数量呈显著的负相关关系,表明在预算压力下存在替代动态。这些结果强调了采用基于系统的方法进行项目规划和风险管理的必要性。该研究为企业和政策制定者提供了实用建议,包括预警指标的使用、基于场景的应急计划和逆周期投资策略。通过首次在矿业大型项目中对这一结构框架进行实证验证,本文促进了对资本项目治理的学术理解和行业实践。
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引用次数: 0
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