Resources Policy最新文献_第9页

A global analysis of asymmetric sustainability effects of human and natural capital resources 人力和自然资本资源不对称可持续性效应的全球分析

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105744

Konstantinos Eleftheriou , Peter Nijkamp , Michael L. Polemis

Assessing whether and how a country is achieving sustainable growth remains one of the most controversial issues in environmental and resource economics. In particular, there is no clear empirical consensus in the existing literature on the degree of substitutability (complementarity) between human and natural capital resources, especially when spatial spillovers are present. This challenging issue calls for further theoretical and empirical insights. To advance and highlight the ongoing debate, we use a sample of 124 countries for the period 1995–2018 and utilise both an Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) and an Asymmetric Spatial Error Correction Model (ASpECM) to explore the degree of substitutability between the two forms of capital. The empirical findings unveil a short-run asymmetric behaviour between human and natural capital which is evident in both types of models (spatial and non-spatial). It is noteworthy that a complementarity relationship appears to be evident when natural capital increases. However, this result is reversed when natural capital decreases, indicating that the two forms of capital are then substitutes. Finally, we find that the existence of long-run symmetry in the non-spatial model embodies a strong bias, if we take account of the existence of spatial dependence, meaning that human capital adjusts more rapidly in response to a negative deviation from its long-run equilibrium with natural capital than to a positive deviation.

评估一个国家是否以及如何实现可持续增长仍然是环境和资源经济学中最具争议的问题之一。特别是，在现有文献中，对于人力资本和自然资本资源之间的可替代性（互补性）程度，特别是在存在空间溢出的情况下，没有明确的经验共识。这个具有挑战性的问题需要进一步的理论和实证见解。为了推进和突出正在进行的辩论，我们使用了1995-2018年期间124个国家的样本，并利用不对称误差修正模型（AECM）和不对称空间误差修正模型（ASpECM）来探索两种资本形式之间的可替代性程度。实证结果揭示了人力资本和自然资本之间的短期不对称行为，这在两种类型的模型（空间和非空间）中都很明显。值得注意的是，当自然资本增加时，互补性关系似乎很明显。然而，当自然资本减少时，这一结果是相反的，这表明两种形式的资本是替代的。最后，我们发现，如果考虑到空间依赖性的存在，非空间模型中长期对称性的存在体现了一种强烈的偏差，这意味着人力资本对其与自然资本的长期平衡的负偏离比正偏离的调整更快。

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引用次数: 0

Drilling down: Oil prices, oil production, and production taxes in North Dakota 钻探：北达科他州的石油价格、石油生产和生产税

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105748

Dragan Miljkovic , Puneet Vatsa

This paper examines the relationships between cycles in oil prices, oil output, and production tax revenue in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the United States. The oil industry contributed over 50% to North Dakota's total tax revenue from 2018 to 2022, highlighting the importance of understanding these relationships. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we use the Hamilton filter to decompose the three time series to extract their cyclical components. Then, we employ Shannon transfer entropy, an information-theoretic non-parametric technique, to analyze the lead-lag relationships between these cycles. The results show significant information flow from oil price changes to oil production tax revenue and oil output, suggesting that oil market dynamics in North Dakota were primarily driven by price changes; the most considerable flow of information occurred contemporaneously. The results also point to limited feedback from production levels to prices. Overall, these findings underscore the critical role of oil prices in shaping the state's oil production and fiscal outcomes.

本文考察了美国第三大产油州北达科他州的油价周期、石油产量和生产税收之间的关系。从2018年到2022年，石油行业贡献了北达科他州总税收的50%以上，这凸显了理解这些关系的重要性。分析分两个阶段进行。首先，我们使用Hamilton滤波器对三个时间序列进行分解，提取它们的周期分量。然后，我们利用Shannon转移熵——一种信息论的非参数技术，来分析这些周期之间的超前-滞后关系。结果显示，从油价变化到石油生产税收和石油产量的信息流显著，表明北达科他州的石油市场动态主要由价格变化驱动；最重要的信息流动同时发生。调查结果还表明，从生产水平到价格的反馈有限。总的来说，这些发现强调了油价在影响国家石油生产和财政结果方面的关键作用。

引用次数: 0

Anticipatory CSR: Legitimacy politics in Uganda's pre-production oil sector 预期的企业社会责任：乌干达生产前石油部门的合法性政治

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105756

Laura Smith, Anne Tallontire, James Van Alstine

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become a taken-for-granted practice used by the global extractive industries, yet its role in the early stages of large-scale oil and mining projects remains underexplored. This paper presents a longitudinal study of how Western and Chinese oil companies implemented CSR in Uganda's Albertine Graben between 2006 and 2016. Drawing on over a hundred interviews and document analysis, we trace how CSR shifted from ad hoc local philanthropy to more professionalised and strategically targeted interventions as companies sought to establish operations over an unusually long exploration period. Using the lens of political CSR, we show how CSR functioned as an anticipatory political practice, through which companies negotiated legitimacy across scales, managed elite relationships, and shaped regulatory space before oil production began. We further demonstrate that CSR operated as political currency, strategically deployed to secure economic and political licences by negotiating with local communities, subnational elites, and national government actors. While companies framed CSR around the ‘social licence to operate’, in practice the economic and political licences took precedence as firms sought to mitigate risk, secure investor confidence, and manage state relations. The findings extend debates on political CSR by highlighting its anticipatory role, its use as political currency, and its implications for governance and benefit-sharing in Africa's contemporary extractive industries.

企业社会责任（CSR）已经成为全球采掘业使用的一种理所当然的做法，但它在大型石油和采矿项目早期阶段的作用仍未得到充分探索。本文对2006年至2016年西方和中国石油公司在乌干达艾伯丁地堑实施企业社会责任的情况进行了纵向研究。通过一百多次访谈和文献分析，我们追踪了企业社会责任是如何从临时的地方慈善事业转变为更专业、更有战略针对性的干预措施的，因为企业寻求在异常漫长的探索期内建立业务。通过政治企业社会责任的视角，我们展示了企业社会责任是如何作为一种预期的政治实践发挥作用的，通过这种实践，企业可以在石油生产开始之前就规模上的合法性进行谈判，管理精英关系，并塑造监管空间。我们进一步证明，企业社会责任作为政治货币运作，通过与当地社区、次国家精英和国家政府行为者谈判，战略性地部署以获得经济和政治许可。虽然企业将企业社会责任框架围绕“社会经营许可证”，但在实践中，经济和政治许可证优先考虑，因为企业寻求降低风险，确保投资者信心，并管理国家关系。研究结果通过强调政治企业社会责任的预期作用、作为政治货币的用途及其对非洲当代采掘业治理和利益分享的影响，扩展了关于政治企业社会责任的辩论。

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引用次数: 0

Occupational health and safety concerns in the artisanal and small-scale mining sector: A review 手工和小规模采矿部门的职业健康和安全问题：审查

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105733

Gavin Hilson

This review examines the health and safety record in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, offering explanations as to why problems in this area have persisted and intensified over time. It argues that most of the health and safety concerns on display at ASM sites worldwide are attributable to the sector's confinement to the informal economy. After reviewing scholarly work that singles out and examines the pervasiveness of individual health and safety concerns in ASM, and attempts made to address them, the paper pivots to four country cases – Brazil, Colombia, Uganda and Zimbabwe – where research is currently being undertaken by the author and colleagues to profile more closely the health and safety record of the sector. These cases are used to reinforce the argument that the poor health and safety record of the ASM sector is linked to its persistent informality, which regulations and policies are responsible for ‘creating’.

本审查审查了手工和小规模采矿（ASM）部门的健康和安全记录，解释了为什么这一领域的问题持续存在并随着时间的推移而加剧。它认为，在世界各地的ASM现场展示的大多数健康和安全问题都可归因于该部门被限制在非正规经济中。在回顾了一些学术工作，这些工作挑选出并检查了ASM中普遍存在的个人健康和安全问题，并试图解决这些问题之后，本文将重点放在四个国家的案例上——巴西、哥伦比亚、乌干达和津巴布韦——作者和同事们目前正在对这些国家进行研究，以更密切地了解该部门的健康和安全记录。这些案例被用来加强这样一种观点，即ASM部门的不良健康和安全记录与其持续的非正式性有关，而这种非正式性是法规和政策造成的。

引用次数: 0

Sustainable mining development in Ghana: An integrated AHP-TOPSIS-Manhattan distance approach 加纳可持续矿业发展：ahp - topsis -曼哈顿距离综合方法

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105757

Mohammed Gadafi Tamimu , Decui Liang

This study presents a comprehensive, expert-guided decision-support framework for assessing the sustainability performance of mining operations in Ghana. To tackle the persistent challenges of illegal mining and advocate for improved resource management in the country, the study employs an integrated decision-making model incorporating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Manhattan Distance. The framework aims to improve ranking sensitivity, mitigate distortion from extreme scores, and offer a transparent, replicable approach for evaluating lawful mining sites according to many sustainability criteria. Twelve sustainability indicators spanning policy, technical, organizational, and environmental dimensions were evaluated utilizing data gathered from 20 business and academic experts. Five legally recognized and geographically dispersed mining sites were assessed: Newmont Golden Ridge Ltd. (Akyem), AngloGold Ashanti (Obuasi), Gold Fields Ghana Ltd. (Tarkwa), Chirano Gold Mines Ltd.(Bibiani), and Cardinal Namdini Mining Ltd. (Bolgatanga). The model demonstrated considerable variations in performance among regions. Newmont Akyem distinguished itself as the highest-performing site because to its strong environmental practices and adherence to regulations, whilst Namdini placed lowest, revealing deficiencies in community integration and environmental management. The sensitivity analysis validated the resilience of the results across several weighting situations. The findings highlight the necessity for tailored policy interventions, strategic investment prioritization, and governance assistance to enhance sustainability outcomes. This research presents methodological enhancements beyond conventional instruments such as the Best–Worst Method (BWM), establishing a scalable framework for sustainable mining evaluation and decision-making in Ghana and analogous environments.

本研究提出了一个全面的、专家指导的决策支持框架，用于评估加纳采矿业务的可持续性绩效。为了解决非法采矿的持续挑战并倡导改善该国的资源管理，该研究采用了一种综合决策模型，该模型结合了层次分析法（AHP）、理想解决方案相似性排序偏好技术（TOPSIS）和曼哈顿距离。该框架旨在提高排名的敏感性，减轻极端分数的扭曲，并根据许多可持续性标准提供透明、可复制的方法来评估合法的采矿地点。利用从20位商业和学术专家收集的数据，对涵盖政策、技术、组织和环境维度的12项可持续性指标进行了评估。评估了5个法律认可且地理位置分散的矿区：Newmont Golden Ridge Ltd （Akyem）、AngloGold Ashanti （Obuasi）、Gold Fields Ghana Ltd （Tarkwa）、Chirano Gold Mines Ltd （Bibiani）和Cardinal Namdini mining Ltd （Bolgatanga）。该模型显示，不同地区的表现差异很大。Newmont Akyem因其强大的环保实践和对法规的遵守而成为表现最好的场地，而Namdini排名最低，暴露了社区整合和环境管理方面的不足。敏感性分析验证了结果在几个加权情况下的弹性。研究结果强调，有必要采取有针对性的政策干预措施、确定战略投资的优先次序和提供治理援助，以提高可持续性成果。本研究提出了超越传统工具（如最佳最差方法（BWM））的方法改进，为加纳和类似环境的可持续采矿评估和决策建立了一个可扩展的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Natural resource extraction, energy efficiency moderation, and sustainable development in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries 海湾合作委员会国家的自然资源开采、能源效率调节和可持续发展

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105750

Jamal Alnsour

Social development plays a crucial role in shaping societies, enhancing the overall quality of life, addressing social challenges, strengthening social structures, boosting economic performance, improving human resource skills, stimulating creative solutions, and creating sustainable development. The Social Progress Index (SPI) encompasses all these characteristics. The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of natural resource extraction on social development in a quadratic manner across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2011 to 2023. We use energy efficiency as a social development factor and a moderator of the relationship between natural resource consumption and sustainable social development. Previous studies have hardly linked these dynamics to each other, and none have focused on GCC countries. Assessing the quadratic relationship contributes to understanding the nonlinear relationships between the variables, determining how the impacts can vary in strength or direction at different levels of the variables. To this end, we employ Bayesian regression. The empirical outcomes show that the link between natural resource extraction and social development follows a U-shaped curve. Energy efficiency improves sustainable social development and increases natural resource sustainability. We also use several control variables, including population density and technological innovation, with both factors showing a positive impact on social development. Based on these results, this study suggests establishing a comprehensive program to invest in environmental technologies that reduce energy use and improve energy efficiency. The details of this program were discussed in depth.

社会发展在塑造社会、提高整体生活质量、应对社会挑战、加强社会结构、促进经济绩效、提高人力资源技能、激发创造性解决方案和创造可持续发展方面发挥着至关重要的作用。社会进步指数（SPI）包含了所有这些特征。本研究旨在探讨2011 - 2023年海湾合作委员会（GCC）成员国自然资源开采对社会发展的二次曲线影响。我们使用能源效率作为社会发展因素和自然资源消耗与社会可持续发展之间关系的调节因子。以前的研究几乎没有将这些动态相互联系起来，而且没有一个研究集中在海湾合作委员会国家。评估二次关系有助于理解变量之间的非线性关系，确定影响在不同变量水平上的强度或方向如何变化。为此，我们采用贝叶斯回归。实证结果表明，自然资源开采与社会发展的关系呈u型曲线。提高能源效率可以促进社会可持续发展，提高自然资源的可持续性。我们还使用了几个控制变量，包括人口密度和技术创新，这两个因素都显示出对社会发展的积极影响。基于这些结果，本研究建议建立一个综合计划，投资于减少能源使用和提高能源效率的环境技术。对该方案的具体内容进行了深入讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Deconstructing cost overrun and delay in mining projects: A system-based model of prices, quantities, and time 解构采矿项目的成本超支和延迟：基于系统的价格、数量和时间模型

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105754

Patricio Faúndez , Juan Ignacio Guzmán

Cost overruns and project delays are persistent challenges in mining project development, with far-reaching financial and economic implications. This study analyzes a unique dataset of 256 observations from 202 mining projects across six continents, spanning evaluation periods from 1994 to 2020. We propose and empirically test a decomposition of capital cost overruns into price-driven (

Δ p

) and quantity-driven (

Δ q

) components. This framework allows for a more granular understanding of the internal and external drivers of deviation and, to our knowledge, represents the first application of a simultaneous system of equations linking

Δ p

,

Δ q

, and project delay (

Δ τ

) in the mining sector.

The results validate three key hypotheses: (1) Using the reduced-form solution of the simultaneous system, we find that a one-month structural delay shock is associated, on average, with a 0.30 % increase in input prices and a 0.38 % increase in project quantities. Under the cost overrun identity, these marginal effects jointly imply an average 0.68 % monthly increase in total project cost; (2) increases in prices and quantities significantly contribute to schedule delays, confirming a feedback loop; and (3) prices and quantities exhibit a statistically significant inverse relationship, suggesting a substitution dynamic under budget pressure.

These results underscore the need for a systems-based approach to project planning and risk management. The study offers practical recommendations for firms and policymakers, including the use of early-warning indicators, scenario-based contingency planning, and countercyclical investment strategies. By providing the first empirical validation of this structural framework in mining megaprojects, the paper advances both academic understanding and industry practice in capital project governance.

成本超支和项目延误是采矿项目开发的长期挑战，具有深远的财政和经济影响。本研究分析了一个独特的数据集，其中包含来自六大洲202个采矿项目的256个观测数据，涵盖了1994年至2020年的评估期。我们提出并实证测试了资本成本超支分解为价格驱动（Δp）和数量驱动（Δq）组件。该框架允许对偏差的内部和外部驱动因素进行更细致的理解，据我们所知，它代表了在采矿部门连接Δp、Δq和项目延迟（Δτ）的同步方程组的首次应用。结果验证了三个关键假设：(1)使用同步系统的简化解，我们发现一个月的结构延迟冲击与投入价格平均增加0.30%和工程量增加0.38%相关。在成本超支的情况下，这些边际效应共同意味着项目总成本平均每月增加0.68%；(2)价格和数量的增加显著导致了进度延迟，确认了一个反馈回路；(3)价格与数量呈显著的负相关关系，表明在预算压力下存在替代动态。这些结果强调了采用基于系统的方法进行项目规划和风险管理的必要性。该研究为企业和政策制定者提供了实用建议，包括预警指标的使用、基于场景的应急计划和逆周期投资策略。通过首次在矿业大型项目中对这一结构框架进行实证验证，本文促进了对资本项目治理的学术理解和行业实践。

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引用次数: 0

Energy, critical minerals, and precious metals: Navigating interconnectedness and portfolio strategies in investment risk management 能源、关键矿产和贵金属：在投资风险管理中的互联性和投资组合策略导航

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105747

Seyi Saint Akadiri , Oktay Ozkan

Commodity markets are becoming increasingly interdependent, exposing investors and policymakers to systemic risks that intensify during financial crises, geopolitical shocks, and the global energy transition. However, most analyses examine energy, critical minerals, and precious metals in isolation, overlooking how shocks in one market propagate to others. This study addresses this gap by integrating these three asset classes into a single connectedness framework. Using a Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model and monthly data from January 1984 to December 2024, the results show that energy commodities consistently act as the primary transmitters of spillovers, while critical minerals and precious metals play a dual role, sometimes cushioning portfolios against shocks, but at other times amplifying contagion depending on macroeconomic conditions. Evidence from the Total Connectedness Index and network visualisations highlights shifting spillover patterns, with systemic risk concentrated in coal, aluminium, copper, and silver. Portfolio-based cumulative return analysis further demonstrates that incorporating critical minerals and precious metals enhances resilience against energy-driven volatility. Robustness checks across three- and five-year horizons confirm these dynamics. These findings underscore the need to manage commodity interdependencies to mitigate systemic risk, strengthen financial stability, and build resilient investment strategies in an era of accelerating energy transition and heightened resource dependency.

大宗商品市场正变得越来越相互依赖，使投资者和政策制定者面临系统性风险，这种风险在金融危机、地缘政治冲击和全球能源转型期间会加剧。然而，大多数分析孤立地考察能源、关键矿物和贵金属，忽视了一个市场的冲击如何传播到其他市场。本研究通过将这三种资产类别整合到一个单一的连通性框架中来解决这一差距。使用分位向量自回归（QVAR）模型和1984年1月至2024年12月的月度数据，结果表明，能源商品一直是溢出效应的主要传播者，而关键矿产和贵金属则发挥双重作用，有时可以缓冲投资组合抵御冲击，但有时会根据宏观经济条件放大传染。来自总连通性指数和网络可视化的证据表明，溢出模式正在发生变化，系统性风险集中在煤炭、铝、铜和银。基于投资组合的累积回报分析进一步表明，纳入关键矿产和贵金属可以增强抵御能源驱动波动的弹性。3年和5年的稳健性检查证实了这些动态。这些研究结果强调，在能源转型加速和资源依赖度提高的时代，需要管理大宗商品的相互依赖性，以减轻系统性风险，加强金融稳定性，并建立有弹性的投资战略。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment of critical minerals supply chain for the United States in perspective of trade restriction by foreign countries 从外国贸易限制的角度对美国关键矿产供应链的评估

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105726

Ji Won Moon, Sean Y. Xun, Jaewon Chung, Steven D. Textoris

In this study, major global producers of the 50 critical minerals designated by the United States government in 2022 were investigated to analyze the supply chain vulnerability to the United States by screening a single foreign country’s role at extraction, processing, and trade. The “freedom in the world” indicator was integrated into these stages to calculate the score of potential risk (Spr), which this study introduced to assess the likelihood of supply chain disruptions. The commodities with high scores of Spr (Tier 1) matched the ones with existing export-controlled critical minerals imposed by China until 2023, which include gallium, germanium, graphite, rare earths, and tungsten. In order of Spr, the remaining minerals were classified into tiers of potential supply risk: Tier 1 (Spr ≥ 50%) indicates high risk (bismuth, magnesium, antimony, and tellurium); Tier 2 (50% > Spr ≥ 32%), moderate risk (indium, vanadium, arsenic, tantalum, and zirconium); and Tier 3 (Spr < 32% with high potential risk if geopolitical conditions change), low to sensitive risk (niobium and platinum). The effectiveness of the approach was further demonstrated by the 2024 export controls implemented by China on antimony, bismuth, and magnesium, which were all classified as Tier 1 prior to the restriction. A short list of critical minerals in this study may be monitored although the current risk is low. The Spr of critical minerals provided an indicator in determining the levels and sources of potential supply risk as well as informing mitigation strategies in the years ahead.

在这项研究中，调查了美国政府在2022年指定的50种关键矿物的全球主要生产商，通过筛选单个外国在开采、加工和贸易方面的作用，分析了供应链对美国的脆弱性。“世界自由”指标被整合到这些阶段来计算潜在风险（Spr）的分数，本研究引入Spr来评估供应链中断的可能性。具有高Spr（一级）分数的商品与中国在2023年之前实施的现有出口控制关键矿物相匹配，包括镓、锗、石墨、稀土和钨。根据Spr大小，将剩余矿种划分为潜在供应风险等级：一级（Spr≥50%）为高风险（铋、镁、锑、碲）；2级（50% > Spr≥32%），中度风险（铟、钒、砷、钽和锆）；第三级（Spr < 32%，如果地缘政治条件发生变化，潜在风险很高），低至敏感风险（铌和铂）。中国在2024年对锑、铋和镁实施的出口管制进一步证明了这种方法的有效性，这些产品在限制之前都被列为一级。虽然目前的风险很低，但这项研究中的一小部分关键矿物质可能会受到监测。关键矿物的战略资源为确定潜在供应风险的水平和来源以及为今后几年的缓解战略提供信息提供了一个指标。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring mining extraction dynamics in Africa: A Hotelling model perspective with non-linear costs 探索非洲的采矿开采动态：具有非线性成本的Hotelling模型视角

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105745

Sassire Napo , Didier Tatoutchoup , Eloi Somtinda Sondo

This paper assesses the applicability of the Hotelling model to non-renewable resource extraction in Africa by examining seven key minerals (bauxite, copper, gold, iron, nickel, phosphate, and tin) across 18 major producing countries. Our findings systematically reject the Hotelling model’s predictions: estimated discount rates are significantly negative across most countries and commodities, contradicting the theoretical assumption of intertemporal profit maximization. Furthermore, observed depletion times (averaging 105 years) fall markedly short of theoretical optima (240–256 years), suggesting systemic over-extraction. Results vary substantially by mineral and country, with phosphate reserves (e.g., Morocco) showing slower depletion, while copper and gold sectors (e.g., DRC, Ghana) exhibit faster extraction. These deviations suggest that the Hotelling model may be inadequate for capturing the complex realities of resource extraction in developing economies, where factors such as widespread illegal mining, institutional rigidities, political instability, and regulatory weaknesses that facilitate resource predation create different optimization conditions than those assumed by the classical model.

本文通过考察18个主要生产国的7种关键矿物（铝土矿、铜、金、铁、镍、磷酸盐和锡），评估了Hotelling模型在非洲不可再生资源开采中的适用性。我们的研究结果系统性地否定了Hotelling模型的预测：估计的贴现率在大多数国家和商品中都是显著负的，这与跨期利润最大化的理论假设相矛盾。此外，观测到的枯竭时间（平均105年）明显低于理论最佳值（240-256年），表明系统过度开采。不同矿物和国家的结果差别很大，磷酸盐储量（如摩洛哥）的枯竭速度较慢，而铜和黄金部门（如刚果民主共和国、加纳）的开采速度较快。这些偏差表明，霍特林模型可能不足以捕捉发展中经济体中资源开采的复杂现实，在发展中经济体中，广泛的非法采矿、制度僵化、政治不稳定和监管薄弱等因素助长了资源掠夺，这些因素创造了与经典模型假设的不同的优化条件。

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引用次数: 0