Reviews of Geophysics最新文献

Observation-based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half-century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land-use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.

Bank retreat plays a fundamental role in fluvial and estuarine dynamics. It affects the cross-sectional evolution of channels, provides a source of sediment, and modulates the diversity of habitats. Understanding and predicting the geomorphological response of fluvial/tidal channels to external driving forces underpins the robust management of water courses and the protection of wetlands. Here, we review bank retreat with respect to mechanisms, observations, and modeling, covering both rivers and (previously neglected) tidal channels. Our review encompasses both experimental and in situ observations of failure mechanisms and bank retreat rates, modeling approaches and numerical methods to simulate bank erosion. We identify that external forces, despite their distinct characteristics, may have similar effects on bank stability in both river and tidal channels, leading to the same failure mode. We review existing data and empirical functions for bank retreat rate across a range of spatial and temporal scales, and highlight the necessity to account for both hydraulic and geotechnical controls. Based on time scale considerations, we propose a new hierarchy of modeling styles that accounts for bank retreat, leading to clear recommendations for enhancing existing modeling approaches. Finally, we discuss systematically the feedbacks between bank retreat and morphodynamics, and suggest that to move this agenda forward will require a better understanding of multifactor-driven bank retreat across a range of temporal scales, with particular attention to the differences (and similarities) between riverine and estuarine environments, and the role of feedbacks exerted by the collapsed bank soil.

Convergent plate boundaries are key sites for continental crustal formation and recycling. Quantifying the evolution of crustal thickness and paleoelevation along ancient convergent margins represents a major goal in orogenic system analyses. Chemical and in some cases isotopic compositions of igneous rocks formed in modern supra-subduction arcs and collisional belts are sensitive to Moho depths at the location of magmatism, implying that igneous suites from fossil orogens carry information about crustal thickness from the time they formed. Several whole-rock chemical parameters correlate with crustal thickness, some of which were calibrated to serve as “mohometers,” that is, quantitative proxies of paleo-Moho depths. Based on mineral-melt partition coefficients, this concept has been extended to detrital zircons, such that combined chemical and geochronological information extracted from these minerals allows us to reconstruct the crustal thickness evolution using the detrital archive. We discuss here the mohometric potential of a variety of chemical and isotopic parameters and show that their combined usage improves paleocrustal thickness estimates. Using a MATLAB^® app developed for the underlying computations, we present examples from the modern and the deeper time geologic record to illustrate the promises and pitfalls of the technique. Since arcs are in isostatic equilibrium, mohometers are useful in reconstructing orogenic paleoelevation as well. Our analysis suggests that many global-scale correlations between magma composition and crustal thickness used in mohometry originate in the sub-arc mantle; additional effects resulting from intracrustal igneous differentiation depend on the compatible or incompatible behavior of the involved parameters.

Glaciers play a crucial role in the Earth System: they are important water suppliers to lower-lying areas during hot and dry periods, and they are major contributors to the observed present-day sea-level rise. Glaciers can also act as a source of natural hazards and have a major touristic value. Given their societal importance, there is large scientific interest in better understanding and accurately simulating the temporal evolution of glaciers, both in the past and in the future. Here, we give an overview of the state of the art of simulating the evolution of individual glaciers over decadal to centennial time scales with ice-dynamical models. We hereby highlight recent advances in the field and emphasize how these go hand-in-hand with an increasing availability of on-site and remotely sensed observations. We also focus on the gap between simplified studies that use parameterizations, typically used for regional and global projections, and detailed assessments for individual glaciers, and explain how recent advances now allow including ice dynamics when modeling glaciers at larger spatial scales. Finally, we provide concrete recommendations concerning the steps and factors to be considered when modeling the evolution of glaciers. We suggest paying particular attention to the model initialization, analyzing how related uncertainties in model input influence the modeled glacier evolution and strongly recommend evaluating the simulated glacier evolution against independent data.

The discipline of seismology is based on observations of ground motion that are inherently undersampled in space and time. Our basic understanding of earthquake processes and our ability to resolve 4D Earth structure are fundamentally limited by data volume. Today, Big Data Seismology is an emergent revolution involving the use of large, data-dense inquiries that is providing new opportunities to make fundamental advances in these areas. This article reviews recent scientific advances enabled by Big Data Seismology through the context of three major drivers: the development of new data-dense sensor systems, improvements in computing, and the development of new types of techniques and algorithms. Each driver is explored in the context of both global and exploration seismology, alongside collaborative opportunities that combine the features of long-duration data collections (common to global seismology) with dense networks of sensors (common to exploration seismology). The review explores some of the unique challenges and opportunities that Big Data Seismology presents, drawing on parallels from other fields facing similar issues. Finally, recent scientific findings enabled by dense seismic data sets are discussed, and we assess the opportunities for significant advances made possible with Big Data Seismology. This review is designed to be a primer for seismologists who are interested in getting up-to-speed with how the Big Data revolution is advancing the field of seismology.

Reviews of Geophysics is the top-rated journal in Geochemistry and Geophysics (ISI Web of Knowledge category) reflecting the many excellent contributions we received. It is an important milestone achieved with the reviewers' investment of time and effort. Their expertise ensures that the papers published in this journal meet the standards that the research community expects. We sincerely appreciate the time the reviewers spent reading and commenting on manuscripts, and we are very grateful for their willingness and readiness to serve in this role.

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud freezing processes, with important implications for precipitation formation and cloud radiative properties, and thus for weather and climate. Additionally, INP emissions respond to changes in the Earth System and climate, for example, desertification, agricultural practices, and fires, and therefore may introduce climate feedbacks that are still poorly understood. As knowledge of the nature and origins of INPs has advanced, regional and global weather, climate, and Earth system models have increasingly begun to link cloud ice processes to model-simulated aerosol abundance and types. While these recent advances are exciting, coupling cloud processes to simulated aerosol also makes cloud physics simulations increasingly susceptible to uncertainties in simulation of INPs, which are still poorly constrained by observations. Advancing the predictability of INP abundance with reasonable spatiotemporal resolution will require an increased focus on research that bridges the measurement and modeling communities. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge and identifies critical knowledge gaps from both observational and modeling perspectives. In particular, we emphasize needs in two key areas: (a) observational closure between aerosol and INP quantities and (b) skillful simulation of INPs within existing weather and climate models. We discuss the state of knowledge on various INP particle types and briefly discuss the challenges faced in understanding the cloud impacts of INPs with present-day models. Finally, we identify priority research directions for both observations and models to improve understanding of INPs and their interactions with the Earth System.

Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter-annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high-latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire-prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre-industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressu

Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) abundance by about 50% since the beginning of the industrial age. The atmospheric CO₂ growth rates would have been much larger if natural sinks in the land biosphere and ocean had not removed over half of this anthropogenic CO₂. As these CO₂ emissions grew, uptake by the ocean increased in response to increases in atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂). On land, gross primary production also increased, but the dynamics of other key aspects of the land carbon cycle varied regionally. Over the past three decades, CO₂ uptake by intact tropical humid forests declined, but these changes are offset by increased uptake across mid- and high-latitudes. While there have been substantial improvements in our ability to study the carbon cycle, measurement and modeling gaps still limit our understanding of the processes driving its evolution. Continued ship-based observations combined with expanded deployments of autonomous platforms are needed to quantify ocean-atmosphere fluxes and interior ocean carbon storage on policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is also an urgent need for more comprehensive measurements of stocks, fluxes and atmospheric CO₂ in humid tropical forests and across the Arctic and boreal regions, which are experiencing rapid change. Here, we review our understanding of the atmosphere, ocean, and land carbon cycles and their interactions, identify emerging measurement and modeling capabilities and gaps and the need for a sustainable, operational framework to ensure a scientific basis for carbon management.

Because quartz veins are common in fault zones exhumed from earthquake nucleation temperatures (150°C–350°C), quartz cementation may be an important mechanism of strength recovery between earthquakes. This interpretation requires that cementation occurs within a single interseismic period. We review slip-related processes that have been argued to allow rapid quartz precipitation in faults, including: advection of silica-saturated fluids, coseismic pore-fluid pressure drops, frictional heating, dissolution-precipitation creep, precipitation of amorphous phases, and variations in fluid and mineral-surface chemistry. We assess the rate and magnitude of quartz growth that may result from each of the examined mechanisms. We find limitations to the kinetics and mass balance of silica precipitation that emphasize two end-member regimes. First, the mechanisms we explore, given current kinetic constraints, cannot explain mesoscale fault-fracture vein networks developing, even incrementally, on interseismic timescales. On the other hand, some mechanisms appear capable, isolated or in combination, of cementing micrometer-to-millimeter thick principal slip surfaces in days to years. This does not explain extensive vein networks in fault damage zones, but allows the involvement of quartz cements in fault healing. These end-members lead us to hypothesize that high flux scenarios, although more important for voluminous hydrothermal mineralization, may be of subsidiary importance to local, diffusive mass transport in low fluid-flux faults when discussing the mechanical implications of quartz cements. A renewed emphasis on the controls on quartz cementation rates in fault zones will, however, be integral to developing a more complete understanding of strength recovery following earthquake rupture.