Reviews of Geophysics最新文献

Fault displacement hazard poses significant risks to critical infrastructure such as buildings, roads, and pipelines. While some structures can tolerate a certain degree of surface displacement, others, such as buildings, are far more vulnerable. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Assessment (PFDHA) quantifies the probability of exceeding a certain level of displacement at a site due to surface-rupturing earthquakes. A PFDHA model consists primarily of two components: the surface rupture probability and the fault displacement models (FDMs). FDMs distinguish between principal fault rupture and distributed rupture. Principal fault rupture occurs along the primary fault plane, where seismic energy is primarily released during an earthquake. In contrast, distributed rupture refers to all other tectonic surface ruptures occurring away from the principal fault. This differentiation was first introduced during the pioneering PFDHA study conducted for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository (Nevada, USA) in the early 2000s. Since then, the methodology has been applied to various fault types, including strike-slip and reverse faults. In recent years, the number of new models and the awareness of PFDHA has grown thanks to several international initiatives such as the worldwide and unified database of surface ruptures, the fault displacement hazard initiative, and the benchmark project led by the International Atomic Energy Agency. With growing interest and rapid advancements in this field, this article aims to provide a complete overview of all published models, discuss their applicability and limitations, standardize the terminology, and outline the necessary developments to guide future research.

Stemflow hydrodynamics is the study of water movement along the exterior surface area of plants. Its primary goal is to describe water velocity and water depth along the stem surface area. Its significance in enriching the rhizosphere with water and nutrients is not in dispute. Yet, the hydrodynamics of stemflow have been entirely overlooked. This review seeks to fill this knowledge gap by drawing from thin film theories to seek outcomes at the tree scale. The depth-averaged conservation equations of water and solute mass are derived at a point. These equations are then supplemented with the conservation of momentum that is required to describe water velocities or relations between water velocities and water depth. Relevant forces pertinent to momentum conservation are covered and include body forces (gravitational effects), surface forces (wall friction), line forces (surface tension), and inertial effects. The inclusion of surface tension opens new vistas into the richness and complexity of stemflow hydrodynamics. Flow instabilities such as fingering, pinching of water columns into droplets, accumulation of water within fissures due to surface tension and their sudden release are prime examples that link observed spatial patterns of stemflow fronts and morphological characteristics of the bark. Aggregating these effects at the tree- and storm- scales are featured using published experiments. The review discusses outstanding challenges pertaining to stemflow hydrodynamics, the use of dynamic similarity and 3D printing to enable the interplay between field studies and controlled laboratory experiments.

Major infectious diseases threatening human health are transmitted to people from animals or by arthropod vectors such as insects. In recent decades, disease outbreaks have become more common, especially in tropical regions, including new and emerging infections that were previously undetected or unknown. Even though there is growing awareness that altering natural habitats can lead to disease outbreaks, the link between land use change and emerging diseases is still often overlooked and poorly understood. Land use change typically destroys natural habitat and alters landscape composition and configuration, thus altering wildlife population dynamics, including those of pathogen hosts, domesticated (often intermediary) hosts, infectious agents, and their vectors. Moreover, land use changes provide opportunities for human exposure to direct contact with wildlife, livestock, and disease-carrying vectors, thereby increasing pathogen spillover from animals to humans. Here we explore the nexus between human health and land use change, highlighting multiple pathways linking emerging disease outbreaks and deforestation, forest fragmentation, urbanization, agricultural expansion, intensified farming systems, and concentrated livestock production. We connect direct and underlying drivers of land use change to human health outcomes related to infectious disease emergence. Despite growing evidence of land-use induced spillover, strategies to reduce the risks of emerging diseases are often absent from discussions on sustainable food systems and land management. A “One Health” perspective—integrating human, animal, and environmental health—provides a critical yet often-overlooked dimension for understanding the health impacts of land use change.

Subduction zones are host to some of the largest and most devastating geohazards on Earth. The magnitude of these hazards is often measured by the amount of energy they release over short periods of time, which itself depends on how much stored energy is available for the geologic processes that drive these hazards. By considering the energy transfer among processes within subduction zones, we can identify the energy inputs and outputs to the system and estimate the stored energy. Due to the multiscale nature of subduction zone processes, developing an energy budget of subduction zone hazards requires integrating a wide range of geologic and geophysical field, laboratory, and modeling studies. We present a framework for developing mechanical energy budgets of upper crustal deformation that considers processes within the magmatic system, at the subduction zone interface, distributed and localized deformation between the arc and trench, and surface processes that erode, transport, and store sediments. The subduction energy budget framework provides a way to integrate data and model results to explore interactions between diverse processes. Because fault mechanics, sediment transport and magmatic processes within subduction zones do not act in isolation, we gain insights by considering the common energetic elements of the subduction zone system. Building energy budgets reveals gaps in our understanding of subduction zone processes, and thus highlights opportunities for new interdisciplinary research on subduction zone processes that can inform hazard potential.

The Mediterranean Basin, renowned for its cultural, ecological, and climatic significance, frequently endures high-impact weather events driven by Mediterranean cyclones (Medcyclones), atmospheric low-pressure systems characterized by counterclockwise wind circulation. These meteorological phenomena, sometimes comparable to hurricanes in their intensity and impact, shape the region's weather and are responsible for diverse natural hazards, including torrential rainfall, flash floods, windstorms, and sea surges. Such events have profound and far-reaching socio-economic and ecological consequences, particularly for coastal and densely populated areas. Despite their critical role, the systematic assessment of Medcyclones' contribution to socio-economic losses and the effective communication of associated risks remains limited. This review synthesizes the existing body of knowledge on the socio-economic impacts of Medcyclones, with a focus on vulnerable sectors such as human health, energy, transportation, agriculture, and cultural heritage. It highlights pressing knowledge gaps, including the need for interdisciplinary research and improved engagement with stakeholders and the public. Advancing the field, this work provides an integrated perspective on Medcyclones' impacts and outlines strategies for resilience, including enhancing predictive models, fostering cross-sectoral impact studies, and improving disaster preparedness. By bridging the knowledge gaps, this review aims to inform policy-making and support the development of adaptive measures to mitigate the escalating threats posed by Medcyclones in the context of a changing climate.

The recharge oscillator (RO) is a simple mathematical model of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In its original form, it is based on two ordinary differential equations that describe the evolution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and oceanic heat content. These equations make use of physical principles that operate in nature: (a) the air-sea interaction loop known as the Bjerknes feedback, (b) a delayed oceanic feedback arising from the slow oceanic response to winds within the equatorial band, (c) state-dependent stochastic forcing from fast wind variations known as westerly wind bursts (WWBs), and (d) nonlinearities such as those related to deep atmospheric convection and oceanic advection. These elements can be combined at different levels of RO complexity. The RO reproduces ENSO key properties in observations and climate models: its amplitude, dominant timescale, seasonality, and warm/cold phases amplitude asymmetry. We discuss the RO in the context of timely research questions. First, the RO can be extended to account for ENSO pattern diversity (with events that either peak in the central or eastern Pacific). Second, the core RO hypothesis that ENSO is governed by tropical Pacific dynamics is discussed from the perspective of influences from other basins. Finally, we discuss the RO relevance for studying ENSO response to climate change, and underline that accounting for ENSO diversity, nonlinearities, and better links of RO parameters to the long term mean state are important research avenues. We end by proposing important RO-based research problems.

On behalf of the authors and readers of Reviews of Geophysics (RoG), the American Geophysical Union, and the broader scientific community, the editors wish to wholeheartedly thank those who reviewed manuscripts for RoG in 2024.

Climate change drives disturbance in hydrology and geomorphology in terrestrial polar landscapes underlain by permafrost, yet measurements of, and theories to understand, these changes are limited. Water flowing from permafrost hillslopes to channels is often modulated by water tracks, zones of enhanced soil moisture in unchannelized depressions that concentrate water flow downslope. Water tracks, which dominate hillslope hydrology in some permafrost landscapes, lack a consistent definition and identification method, and their global occurrence, morphology, climate relationships, and geomorphic roles remain understudied despite their role in the permafrost carbon cycle. Combining a literature review with a synthesis of prior work, we identify uniting and distinguishing characteristics between water tracks from disparate polar sites with a toolkit for future field and remotely sensed identification of water tracks. We place previous studies within a quantitative framework of “top-down” climate and “bottom-up” geology controls on track morphology and hydrogeomorphic function. We find the term “water track” is applied to a broad category of concentrated suprapermafrost flowpaths exhibiting varying morphology, degrees of self-organization, hydraulic characteristics, subsurface composition, vegetation, relationships to thaw tables, and stream order/hillslope position. We propose that the widespread occurrence of water tracks on both poles across varying geologic, ecologic, and climatic factors implies that water tracks are in dynamic equilibrium with the permafrost environment but that they may experience change as the climate continues to warm. Current knowledge gaps include these features' trajectories in the face of ongoing climate change and their role as an analog landform for an active Martian hydrosphere.

Assessing landslide risk is a fundamental requirement to plan suitable prevention actions. To date, most risk studies focus on individual slopes or catchments. Whereas regional, national or continental scale assessments are hardly available because of methodological and/or data limitations. In this contribution, we present an overview of all requirements and limitations in landslide risk studies across all spatial scales, by means of a hybrid form that combines elements of original research with the comprehensive characteristics of a review study. The review critically analyses each component in the landslide risk analysis providing a detailed explanation of their state-of-the-art, with dedicated sections on susceptibility, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. To put the theoretical framework to test, we also dive into a case study, expressed at the continental scale. Specifically, we take the main European mountain ranges and provide the reader with a textbook example of risk assessment for such a large territory. In doing so, we take into account issues associated with cross-national differences in landslide mapping. As a result, we identify landslide-prone European landscape and explore the associated possible economic consequences (human settlements and agricultural areas). We also analyze the population at risk during daytime and nighttime. Moreover, a modern view of the problem is explored in the form of how risk outcomes should be delivered to master planners and geoscientific personnel alike. Specifically, we convert our output into an interactive Web Application (https://pan-european-landslide-risk.github.io/) to include notions of scientific communication both to a large public as well as to a technical audience.

Karst water resources are valuable freshwater sources for around 10% of the world's population. Nonetheless, anthropogenic impacts and global changes have seriously deteriorated karst water quality and dependent ecosystems. Multiscale karstic heterogeneity—referring to the spatial variations of the karst aquifer's physical and chemical characteristics at varying scales—is the main challenge in describing karst flow and contaminant transport dynamics. Solute transport models are powerful tools to represent and predict the spatiotemporal behaviors of contaminant migration in karst water resources. By enhancing our understanding of the transport processes, the solute transport models enable us to explore contamination risks and potential outcomes of the contamination-related issues in karst systems. Because of that, they are often used for monitoring, controlling, and managing karst water quality and dependent ecosystem functioning. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the modeling of karst transport processes with a focus on single-phase solute transport. By unveiling the fundamental challenges underlying a successful real-world application of karst transport models, we discuss to what extent and how we can handle these challenges. By further deriving the key challenges afront the successful modeling applications in karst systems, we, therefore, provide directions to ensure the reliable modeling of karst transport dynamics in the present context of global changes.