Reviews of Geophysics最新文献

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud freezing processes, with important implications for precipitation formation and cloud radiative properties, and thus for weather and climate. Additionally, INP emissions respond to changes in the Earth System and climate, for example, desertification, agricultural practices, and fires, and therefore may introduce climate feedbacks that are still poorly understood. As knowledge of the nature and origins of INPs has advanced, regional and global weather, climate, and Earth system models have increasingly begun to link cloud ice processes to model-simulated aerosol abundance and types. While these recent advances are exciting, coupling cloud processes to simulated aerosol also makes cloud physics simulations increasingly susceptible to uncertainties in simulation of INPs, which are still poorly constrained by observations. Advancing the predictability of INP abundance with reasonable spatiotemporal resolution will require an increased focus on research that bridges the measurement and modeling communities. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge and identifies critical knowledge gaps from both observational and modeling perspectives. In particular, we emphasize needs in two key areas: (a) observational closure between aerosol and INP quantities and (b) skillful simulation of INPs within existing weather and climate models. We discuss the state of knowledge on various INP particle types and briefly discuss the challenges faced in understanding the cloud impacts of INPs with present-day models. Finally, we identify priority research directions for both observations and models to improve understanding of INPs and their interactions with the Earth System.

Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter-annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high-latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire-prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre-industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressu

Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) abundance by about 50% since the beginning of the industrial age. The atmospheric CO₂ growth rates would have been much larger if natural sinks in the land biosphere and ocean had not removed over half of this anthropogenic CO₂. As these CO₂ emissions grew, uptake by the ocean increased in response to increases in atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂). On land, gross primary production also increased, but the dynamics of other key aspects of the land carbon cycle varied regionally. Over the past three decades, CO₂ uptake by intact tropical humid forests declined, but these changes are offset by increased uptake across mid- and high-latitudes. While there have been substantial improvements in our ability to study the carbon cycle, measurement and modeling gaps still limit our understanding of the processes driving its evolution. Continued ship-based observations combined with expanded deployments of autonomous platforms are needed to quantify ocean-atmosphere fluxes and interior ocean carbon storage on policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is also an urgent need for more comprehensive measurements of stocks, fluxes and atmospheric CO₂ in humid tropical forests and across the Arctic and boreal regions, which are experiencing rapid change. Here, we review our understanding of the atmosphere, ocean, and land carbon cycles and their interactions, identify emerging measurement and modeling capabilities and gaps and the need for a sustainable, operational framework to ensure a scientific basis for carbon management.

Because quartz veins are common in fault zones exhumed from earthquake nucleation temperatures (150°C–350°C), quartz cementation may be an important mechanism of strength recovery between earthquakes. This interpretation requires that cementation occurs within a single interseismic period. We review slip-related processes that have been argued to allow rapid quartz precipitation in faults, including: advection of silica-saturated fluids, coseismic pore-fluid pressure drops, frictional heating, dissolution-precipitation creep, precipitation of amorphous phases, and variations in fluid and mineral-surface chemistry. We assess the rate and magnitude of quartz growth that may result from each of the examined mechanisms. We find limitations to the kinetics and mass balance of silica precipitation that emphasize two end-member regimes. First, the mechanisms we explore, given current kinetic constraints, cannot explain mesoscale fault-fracture vein networks developing, even incrementally, on interseismic timescales. On the other hand, some mechanisms appear capable, isolated or in combination, of cementing micrometer-to-millimeter thick principal slip surfaces in days to years. This does not explain extensive vein networks in fault damage zones, but allows the involvement of quartz cements in fault healing. These end-members lead us to hypothesize that high flux scenarios, although more important for voluminous hydrothermal mineralization, may be of subsidiary importance to local, diffusive mass transport in low fluid-flux faults when discussing the mechanical implications of quartz cements. A renewed emphasis on the controls on quartz cementation rates in fault zones will, however, be integral to developing a more complete understanding of strength recovery following earthquake rupture.

Salt marshes are highly productive intertidal wetlands providing important ecological services for maintaining coastal biodiversity, buffering against oceanic storms, and acting as efficient carbon sinks. However, about half of these wetlands have been lost globally due to human activities and climate change. Inundated periodically by tidal water, salt marshes are subjected to strong surface water and groundwater interactions, which affect marsh plant growth and biogeochemical exchange with coastal water. This paper reviews the state of knowledge and current approaches to quantifying marsh surface water and groundwater interactions with a focus on porewater flow and associated soil conditions in connection with plant zonation as well as carbon, nutrients, and greenhouse gas fluxes. Porewater flow and solute transport in salt marshes are primarily driven by tides with moderate regulation by rainfall, evapotranspiration and sea level rise. Tidal fluctuations play a key role in plant zonation through alteration of soil aeration and salt transport, and drive the export of significant fluxes of carbon and nutrients to coastal water. Despite recent progress, major knowledge gaps remain. Previous studies focused on flows in creek-perpendicular marsh sections and overlooked multi-scale 3D behaviors. Understanding of marsh ecological-hydrological links under combined influences of different forcing factors and boundary disturbances is lacking. Variations of surface water and groundwater temperatures affect porewater flow, soil conditions and biogeochemical exchanges, but the extent and underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We need to fill these knowledge gaps to advance understanding of salt marshes and thus enhance our ability to protect and restore them.

Quantitative predictions of natural and induced phenomena in fractured rock is one of the great challenges in the Earth and Energy Sciences with far-reaching economic and environmental impacts. Fractures occupy a very small volume of a subsurface formation but often dominate fluid flow, solute transport and mechanical deformation behavior. They play a central role in CO₂ sequestration, nuclear waste disposal, hydrogen storage, geothermal energy production, nuclear nonproliferation, and hydrocarbon extraction. These applications require predictions of fracture-dependent quantities of interest such as CO₂ leakage rate, hydrocarbon production, radionuclide plume migration, and seismicity; to be useful, these predictions must account for uncertainty inherent in subsurface systems. Here, we review recent advances in fractured rock research covering field- and laboratory-scale experimentation, numerical simulations, and uncertainty quantification. We discuss how these have greatly improved the fundamental understanding of fractures and one's ability to predict flow and transport in fractured systems. Dedicated field sites provide quantitative measurements of fracture flow that can be used to identify dominant coupled processes and to validate models. Laboratory-scale experiments fill critical knowledge gaps by providing direct observations and measurements of fracture geometry and flow under controlled conditions that cannot be obtained in the field. Physics-based simulation of flow and transport provide a bridge in understanding between controlled simple laboratory experiments and the massively complex field-scale fracture systems. Finally, we review the use of machine learning-based emulators to rapidly investigate different fracture property scenarios and accelerate physics-based models by orders of magnitude to enable uncertainty quantification and near real-time analysis.

Radiocarbon is an extremely useful carbon cycle tracer and radiometric dating tool. Here, we review the main principles and challenges involved in the use of radiocarbon in paleoceanography. First, we present a conceptual framework in which there are three possible uses of a radiocarbon measurement: (a) to obtain a calendar age interval, or a fossil entity's age; (b) to obtain an estimate of a carbon reservoir's past radiocarbon activity; or (c) to compare the relative radiocarbon activities of two contemporary carbon reservoirs. We discuss the analysis of marine fossil material, the generation of an atmospheric reference curve, and the interpretation of marine radiocarbon “ventilation metrics” in relation to this reference curve. It is emphasized that marine radiocarbon integrates the influences of: changing radiocarbon production; air-sea gas exchange effects at the sea surface; transport times within the ocean interior; and the mixing of water parcels with different transit times from the sea surface, and different sea-surface sources. These controls are what make radiocarbon such a powerful paleoceanographic tracer, though the difficulty of disentangling them is what makes marine radiocarbon dating and tracer studies so challenging. We discuss the implementation of radiocarbon in numerical models, and explore the theory linking ocean-atmosphere partitioning of radiocarbon and CO₂. Finally, we review existing records of marine radiocarbon variability over the last ∼25,000 years, which highlight the influence of ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange on past atmospheric CO₂ and climate, and point to emerging opportunities for resolving the global radiocarbon- and carbon budgets over the last glacial cycle.

Quantifying rates of climate change in mountain regions is of considerable interest, not least because mountains are viewed as climate “hotspots” where change can anticipate or amplify what is occurring elsewhere. Accelerating mountain climate change has extensive environmental impacts, including depletion of snow/ice reserves, critical for the world's water supply. Whilst the concept of elevation-dependent warming (EDW), whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation, is widely accepted, no consistent EDW profile at the global scale has been identified. Past assessments have also neglected elevation-dependent changes in precipitation. In this comprehensive analysis, both in situ station temperature and precipitation data from mountain regions, and global gridded data sets (observations, reanalyses, and model hindcasts) are employed to examine the elevation dependency of temperature and precipitation changes since 1900. In situ observations in paired studies (using adjacent stations) show a tendency toward enhanced warming at higher elevations. However, when all mountain/lowland studies are pooled into two groups, no systematic difference in high versus low elevation group warming rates is found. Precipitation changes based on station data are inconsistent with no systematic contrast between mountain and lowland precipitation trends. Gridded data sets (CRU, GISTEMP, GPCC, ERA5, and CMIP5) show increased warming rates at higher elevations in some regions, but on a global scale there is no universal amplification of warming in mountains. Increases in mountain precipitation are weaker than for low elevations worldwide, meaning reduced elevation-dependency of precipitation, especially in midlatitudes. Agreement on elevation-dependent changes between gridded data sets is weak for temperature but stronger for precipitation.

Forests cover nearly a third of the Earth's land area and exchange mass, momentum, and energy with the atmosphere. Most studies of these exchanges, particularly using numerical models, consider forests whose structure has been heavily simplified. In many landscapes, these simplifications are unrealistic. Inhomogeneous landscapes and unsteady weather conditions generate fluid dynamical features that cause observations to be inaccurately interpreted, biased, or over-generalized. In Part I, we discuss experimental, theoretical, and numerical progress in the understanding of turbulent exchange over realistic forests. Scalar transport does not necessarily follow the flow in realistic settings, meaning scalar quantities are rarely at equilibrium around patchy forests, and significant scalar fluxes may form in the lee of forested hills. Gaps and patchiness generate significant spatial fluxes that current models and observations neglect. Atmospheric instability increases the distance over which fluxes adjust at forest edges. In deciduous forests, the effects of patchiness differ between seasons; counter intuitively, eddies reach further into leafy canopies (because they are rougher aerodynamically). Air parcel residence times are likely much lower in patchy forests than homogeneous ones, especially around edges. In Part II, we set out practical ways to make numerical models of forest-atmosphere more realistic, including by accounting for reconfiguration and realistic canopy structure and beginning to include more chemical and physical processes in turbulence resolving models. Future challenges include: (a) customizing numerical models to real study sites, (b) connecting space and time scales, and (c) incorporating a greater range of weather conditions in numerical models.

Hematite is a canted antiferromagnet with reddish color that occurs widely on Earth and Mars. Identification and quantification of hematite is conveniently achieved through its magnetic and color properties. Hematite characteristics and content are indispensable ingredients in studies of the iron cycle, paleoenvironmental evolution, paleogeographic reconstructions, and comparative planetology (e.g., Mars). However, the existing magnetic and color reflectance property framework for hematite is based largely on stoichiometric hematite and tends to neglect the effects of cation substitution, which occurs widely in natural hematite and influences the physical properties of hematite. Thus, magnetic parameters for stoichiometric hematite are insufficient for complete analysis of many natural hematite occurrences and can lead to ambiguous geological interpretations. Remagnetization, which occurs pervasively in red beds, is another ticklish problem involving hematite. Understanding red bed remagnetization requires investigation of hematite's formation and remanence recording mechanisms. We elaborate on the influence of cation substitution on the magnetic and color spectral properties of hematite, and on identifying hematite and quantifying its content in soils and sediments. Studies of remagnetization mechanisms are discussed, and we summarize methods to discriminate between primary and secondary remanences carried by hematite in natural samples to aid primary remanence extraction in partially remagnetized red beds. Although there remain unknown properties and unresolved issues that require future work, recognition of the properties of cation-substituted hematite and remagnetization mechanisms for hematite will aid identification and interpretation of the magnetic signals that it carries, which is environmentally important and responsible for magnetic signals on Earth and Mars.