Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03180
Eric KamanaID , Jijun ZhaoID
Imported malaria has been a risk of malaria reemergence in countries that have successfully eliminated malaria. This study developed an ensemble machine learning model to analyze and predict imported malaria cases from African countries to China based on data collected from 2012 to 2018.
The stacked ensemble model which combines LASSO, Random forest, and Decision Tree regression, showed a significant improvement in performance, achieving an R2 range of 0.82 to 0.98, indicating high predictive accuracy, and outperformed individual base models, with a gain of approximately 15% in MAE reduction, highlighting its effectiveness.
The findings indicate that the increase in Chinese workers, foreign direct investment (FDI) and existing malaria incidence in African countries associate significantly with the rise in imported malaria cases (P = 0.001). The results underscore the importance of collaboration between China and African nations to address malaria, particularly in formulating targeted public health strategies to mitigate imported cases linked to labor movements.
This predictive tool can assist in guiding health interventions and resource allocation in China as intercountry movements continue to grow.
{"title":"Stacked ensemble modelling of imported malaria from African countries to China","authors":"Eric KamanaID , Jijun ZhaoID","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03180","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03180","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Imported malaria has been a risk of malaria reemergence in countries that have successfully eliminated malaria. This study developed an ensemble machine learning model to analyze and predict imported malaria cases from African countries to China based on data collected from 2012 to 2018.</div><div>The stacked ensemble model which combines LASSO, Random forest, and Decision Tree regression, showed a significant improvement in performance, achieving an R<sup>2</sup> range of 0.82 to 0.98, indicating high predictive accuracy, and outperformed individual base models, with a gain of approximately 15% in MAE reduction, highlighting its effectiveness.</div><div>The findings indicate that the increase in Chinese workers, foreign direct investment (FDI) and existing malaria incidence in African countries associate significantly with the rise in imported malaria cases (<em>P</em> = 0.001). The results underscore the importance of collaboration between China and African nations to address malaria, particularly in formulating targeted public health strategies to mitigate imported cases linked to labor movements.</div><div>This predictive tool can assist in guiding health interventions and resource allocation in China as intercountry movements continue to grow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03180"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03179
A.A. Ahmed , Eslam Abdelhakim Seyam , Ahmed R. El-Saeed , Eman O. Abdalla , Shiraz Naserelden , Said G. Nassr
The purpose of this article is to present a new, more flexible lifetime distribution that can be used to model different datasets in different fields. The new distribution is an expansion of the Ailamujia distribution using Khalil new generalized family called Khalil new generalized Ailamujia (KNGA) distribution. This distribution has a J shape, right-skewed, and approximately symmetric-shaped densities. Moreover, its hazard rate function can be increasing, increasing–constant, decreasing, or upside-down bathtub-shaped. Several of its statistical properties such as quantile, median, probability weighted moments, moments, incomplete moments, mean deviations, inequality measures, moments of residual life and reversed residual life functions, measure of uncertainty, and order statistics are explored. The parameter estimation is carried out using two classical methods, namely, the maximum likelihood method and the maximum product spacing method. Moreover, the Bayesian method under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions is presented based on the two classical methods. In addition, the credible intervals of the different parameters were also obtained. A significant amount of simulation studies was conducted to examine the effectiveness of these estimates. We present a methodology to generate samples on R program from any new distribution, even if it doesn’t have a closed form for the quantile function. Finally, different real-world data sets are analyzed to demonstrate the utility and adaptability of the proposed model.
{"title":"A generalized lifetime model based on Ailamujia distribution: Statistical properties, different inference estimation and applications to several fields","authors":"A.A. Ahmed , Eslam Abdelhakim Seyam , Ahmed R. El-Saeed , Eman O. Abdalla , Shiraz Naserelden , Said G. Nassr","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of this article is to present a new, more flexible lifetime distribution that can be used to model different datasets in different fields. The new distribution is an expansion of the Ailamujia distribution using Khalil new generalized family called Khalil new generalized Ailamujia (KNGA) distribution. This distribution has a J shape, right-skewed, and approximately symmetric-shaped densities. Moreover, its hazard rate function can be increasing, increasing–constant, decreasing, or upside-down bathtub-shaped. Several of its statistical properties such as quantile, median, probability weighted moments, moments, incomplete moments, mean deviations, inequality measures, moments of residual life and reversed residual life functions, measure of uncertainty, and order statistics are explored. The parameter estimation is carried out using two classical methods, namely, the maximum likelihood method and the maximum product spacing method. Moreover, the Bayesian method under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions is presented based on the two classical methods. In addition, the credible intervals of the different parameters were also obtained. A significant amount of simulation studies was conducted to examine the effectiveness of these estimates. We present a methodology to generate samples on R program from any new distribution, even if it doesn’t have a closed form for the quantile function. Finally, different real-world data sets are analyzed to demonstrate the utility and adaptability of the proposed model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03179"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03178
Jamal Abbach , Said El Moussaoui , Hajar El Talibi , Charaf Eddine Bouiss
Lake Tamda is a temporary endorheic lake located in the central Middle Atlas (Morocco) that exhibits pronounced seasonal filling and drying phases. This study aims to quantify the respective roles of climatic forcing and subsurface drainage in controlling the lake’s hydrological dynamics within a semi-arid mountain environment. We combine multi-temporal satellite observations (2011–2021) with field measurements, piezometric data, and rainfall records to track variations in lake surface area and groundwater response. Results show that lake expansion is strongly controlled by winter–spring precipitation and snowmelt, while rapid summer drawdown cannot be explained by evaporation alone. Instead, drainage through karstified carbonate bedrock and permeable zones within the landslide dam plays a major role in water loss, with structural lineaments aligning the lake with downstream wells and springs. During recent dry years (2019–2021), reduced rainfall and rising temperatures led to recurrent complete desiccation by late summer. These findings demonstrate that Lake Tamda functions as a precipitation-filled, fracture-drained seasonal lake highly sensitive to climate variability. The lake represents both a valuable geoheritage site and a vulnerable hydrosystem, highlighting the need for integrated hydrogeological monitoring to assess future impacts of climate change.
{"title":"Spatio-temporal evolution of the surface dynamics and the underground water flow of the natural lake Tamda (Middle Atlas, Morocco)","authors":"Jamal Abbach , Said El Moussaoui , Hajar El Talibi , Charaf Eddine Bouiss","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lake Tamda is a temporary endorheic lake located in the central Middle Atlas (Morocco) that exhibits pronounced seasonal filling and drying phases. This study aims to quantify the respective roles of climatic forcing and subsurface drainage in controlling the lake’s hydrological dynamics within a semi-arid mountain environment. We combine multi-temporal satellite observations (2011–2021) with field measurements, piezometric data, and rainfall records to track variations in lake surface area and groundwater response. Results show that lake expansion is strongly controlled by winter–spring precipitation and snowmelt, while rapid summer drawdown cannot be explained by evaporation alone. Instead, drainage through karstified carbonate bedrock and permeable zones within the landslide dam plays a major role in water loss, with structural lineaments aligning the lake with downstream wells and springs. During recent dry years (2019–2021), reduced rainfall and rising temperatures led to recurrent complete desiccation by late summer. These findings demonstrate that Lake Tamda functions as a precipitation-filled, fracture-drained seasonal lake highly sensitive to climate variability. The lake represents both a valuable geoheritage site and a vulnerable hydrosystem, highlighting the need for integrated hydrogeological monitoring to assess future impacts of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03178"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03140
M.E. Sobh , Ammar M. Sarhan
Accurate modeling of data restricted to the unit interval is essential across many applied disciplines. This paper proposes two new single-parameter probability distributions tailored for variables supported on . The models are mathematically tractable and exhibit notable flexibility, with analytical expressions derived for their survival and hazard functions, moments, and parameter-driven behavior. Their single-parameter structure enables closed-form maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators, avoiding the heavy numerical optimization typically required by existing unit-interval models. The maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be global solutions, and the Bayesian framework benefits from the conjugacy of the gamma prior, allowing for efficient posterior inference. The performance of the proposed distributions is assessed through extensive simulations and applications to four real datasets. These datasets were selected to encompass both positively and negatively skewed structures, allowing for an evaluation of model performance across diverse distributional shapes. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed models provide an excellent fit for all skewness patterns and consistently outperform ten established benchmark models based on standard goodness-of-fit criteria.
{"title":"Two new unit-interval distributions with applications to COVID-19 and reservoir capacity data","authors":"M.E. Sobh , Ammar M. Sarhan","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate modeling of data restricted to the unit interval is essential across many applied disciplines. This paper proposes two new single-parameter probability distributions tailored for variables supported on <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>. The models are mathematically tractable and exhibit notable flexibility, with analytical expressions derived for their survival and hazard functions, moments, and parameter-driven behavior. Their single-parameter structure enables closed-form maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators, avoiding the heavy numerical optimization typically required by existing unit-interval models. The maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be global solutions, and the Bayesian framework benefits from the conjugacy of the gamma prior, allowing for efficient posterior inference. The performance of the proposed distributions is assessed through extensive simulations and applications to four real datasets. These datasets were selected to encompass both positively and negatively skewed structures, allowing for an evaluation of model performance across diverse distributional shapes. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed models provide an excellent fit for all skewness patterns and consistently outperform ten established benchmark models based on standard goodness-of-fit criteria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03140"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145924884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-04DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03177
Ifeyinwa G. Ibekwe , Ahmed H. Awad , Marawan Abdelwahed , Fatai O. Aramide , Mohamed A. Taha
This study investigates the processability of Al5356 wire using Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) with Double Pulse (DP-GMAW) and Single Pulse (SP-GMAW) welding modes. The research aims to understand how varying heat input and pulsing strategies affect the WAAM-processed component morphology, microstructural evolution, and mechanical performance of the fabricated components. The results revealed that DP-GMAW could improve bead geometry, reduce porosity, and lead to refined grain structure through enhanced pool stirring compared to SP- GMAW. Moreover, hardness measurements of the vertical structures show a more uniform distribution along the vertical direction. The SP-GMAW process, although producing higher porosity (3.55%), showed higher tensile strength of 265 MPa compared to DP-GMAW. Both methods demonstrated mechanical properties surpassing those of cast Al5356 alloy. The findings provide insights into optimizing pulsed arc welding parameters for enhanced performance in aluminum WAAM applications.
{"title":"Effects of single and double- pulse GMAW on the WAAM fabrication of Al5356 wall on Al- 6082 substrate","authors":"Ifeyinwa G. Ibekwe , Ahmed H. Awad , Marawan Abdelwahed , Fatai O. Aramide , Mohamed A. Taha","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the processability of Al5356 wire using Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) with Double Pulse (DP-GMAW) and Single Pulse (SP-GMAW) welding modes. The research aims to understand how varying heat input and pulsing strategies affect the WAAM-processed component morphology, microstructural evolution, and mechanical performance of the fabricated components. The results revealed that DP-GMAW could improve bead geometry, reduce porosity, and lead to refined grain structure through enhanced pool stirring compared to SP- GMAW. Moreover, hardness measurements of the vertical structures show a more uniform distribution along the vertical direction. The SP-GMAW process, although producing higher porosity (3.55%), showed higher tensile strength of 265 MPa compared to DP-GMAW. Both methods demonstrated mechanical properties surpassing those of cast Al5356 alloy. The findings provide insights into optimizing pulsed arc welding parameters for enhanced performance in aluminum WAAM applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03177"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145925109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03172
Taher Ammar , Mohamed Abdel-Monem , Karim El-Dash
Road construction projects in Egypt, as in many other developing African countries, frequently experience significant cost overruns. This study systematically analyzes the causes of such overruns to enhance understanding and improve risk management practices in the field. The research identifies key factors contributing to cost overruns and examines their relationships. A prediction model was developed to help estimate appropriate contingency costs by evaluating the impact of these factors on the overall project cost. Using Factor Analysis (FA), Regression Analysis (RA), and Regression Model (RM), the study assessed the significance of various cost overrun factors. The findings indicate that poor material quality, scope-of-work changes, and quantity variations are the primary causes of cost overruns in road construction projects. This study benefits both local and international researchers and practitioners by providing actionable insights. It highlights the practical implications of the findings and emphasizes key features that decision-makers should consider to improve the performance of the road network construction sector. As a critical driver of urban development and modern community establishment, enhancing the efficiency of road construction is essential for sustainable growth and infrastructure development. The study also helps the government address the risks associated with road network projects during the pre-tendering phase, enabling it to better manage its financial resources.
{"title":"Using factor analysis and regression technique to predict cost overrun in road network construction projects","authors":"Taher Ammar , Mohamed Abdel-Monem , Karim El-Dash","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road construction projects in Egypt, as in many other developing African countries, frequently experience significant cost overruns. This study systematically analyzes the causes of such overruns to enhance understanding and improve risk management practices in the field. The research identifies key factors contributing to cost overruns and examines their relationships. A prediction model was developed to help estimate appropriate contingency costs by evaluating the impact of these factors on the overall project cost. Using Factor Analysis (FA), Regression Analysis (RA), and Regression Model (RM), the study assessed the significance of various cost overrun factors. The findings indicate that poor material quality, scope-of-work changes, and quantity variations are the primary causes of cost overruns in road construction projects. This study benefits both local and international researchers and practitioners by providing actionable insights. It highlights the practical implications of the findings and emphasizes key features that decision-makers should consider to improve the performance of the road network construction sector. As a critical driver of urban development and modern community establishment, enhancing the efficiency of road construction is essential for sustainable growth and infrastructure development. The study also helps the government address the risks associated with road network projects during the pre-tendering phase, enabling it to better manage its financial resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03172"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03161
Jeremiah January , Gasper Mwanga , Isack E. Kibona , Nyimvua Shaban Mbare
<div><div>An optimal control model for rotavirus transmission was formulated to minimize both the cost of implementing interventions and the burden of infection among children and caregivers. The model integrates five time-dependent control functions: vaccination of children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), public health education (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), treatment of infected children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), water treatment and sanitation (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), and hygiene promotion (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>5</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>). Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle was applied to derive the necessary conditions for optimality, and numerical simulations were conducted using the Runge–Kutta method to determine the optimal time-dependent control profiles and corresponding epidemiological outcomes. Simulation results at <span><math><mrow><mi>t</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>220</mn></mrow></math></span> days indicate a substantial reduction in rotavirus infections among children and caregivers when integrated controls are applied. The number of infected and hospitalized children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>I</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>H</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) approach zero, while the vaccinated population (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>V</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) reaches approximately <span><math><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>58</mn><mo>×</mo><mn>1</mn><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>7</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>, confirming the central role of vaccination in suppressing new infections. The concentration of environmental rotavirus particles (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>C</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) also tends to zero, highlighting the combined efficacy of hygiene and sanitation interventions in reducing environmental transmission. Among the evaluated control strategies, the combination of vaccination, treatment, and hygiene (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>13</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>) emerges as both the most cost-effective and epidemiologically impactful strategy. This approach achieves near-complete elimination of child infections at a moderate total cost of approximately $6.17<span><math><mrow><mo>×</mo><mn>1</mn><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>11</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>, yielding the best balance between health outcomes and economic feasibility. In contrast, the single-control strategies (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>–<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>5</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>)
{"title":"Modeling and optimal control of rotavirus transmission dynamics with cost effectiveness","authors":"Jeremiah January , Gasper Mwanga , Isack E. Kibona , Nyimvua Shaban Mbare","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03161","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03161","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An optimal control model for rotavirus transmission was formulated to minimize both the cost of implementing interventions and the burden of infection among children and caregivers. The model integrates five time-dependent control functions: vaccination of children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), public health education (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), treatment of infected children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), water treatment and sanitation (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>), and hygiene promotion (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>5</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>). Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle was applied to derive the necessary conditions for optimality, and numerical simulations were conducted using the Runge–Kutta method to determine the optimal time-dependent control profiles and corresponding epidemiological outcomes. Simulation results at <span><math><mrow><mi>t</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>220</mn></mrow></math></span> days indicate a substantial reduction in rotavirus infections among children and caregivers when integrated controls are applied. The number of infected and hospitalized children (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>I</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>H</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) approach zero, while the vaccinated population (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>V</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>b</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) reaches approximately <span><math><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>58</mn><mo>×</mo><mn>1</mn><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>7</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>, confirming the central role of vaccination in suppressing new infections. The concentration of environmental rotavirus particles (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>C</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) also tends to zero, highlighting the combined efficacy of hygiene and sanitation interventions in reducing environmental transmission. Among the evaluated control strategies, the combination of vaccination, treatment, and hygiene (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>13</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>) emerges as both the most cost-effective and epidemiologically impactful strategy. This approach achieves near-complete elimination of child infections at a moderate total cost of approximately $6.17<span><math><mrow><mo>×</mo><mn>1</mn><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>11</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>, yielding the best balance between health outcomes and economic feasibility. In contrast, the single-control strategies (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>–<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>5</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>)","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03161"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145924885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03168
Mohammed Ahmed Ebrahim , Zebene Asfaw , Shewakena Teklegiorgis , Ewunetu Tazebew
On-farm tree resources sustain biodiversity, provide multiple products, and improve resilience of farming systems. Understanding the diversity and composition of on-farm tree resources is essential for designing tree-growing interventions, yet remains unexplored in many socio-ecological contexts. This study assessed the species composition and diversity of woody plants across agroforestry practices in Kalu district, Northeastern Ethiopia. A multistage random sampling was employed to select a total of 54 sample farms across two study sites (Lowland and Midland) to inventory woody plants in four agroforestry practices: agroforestry parklands, home-gardens, boundary live fences, and woodlot plantations. A total of 56 woody species were recorded across farmlands, of which 66 % were native and 34 % were exotic. Species richness and diversity differed significantly among agroforestry practices (p < 0.05), with home-gardens and live fences showing high average richness (5.85 and 4.33 species, respectively). Parklands supported lower diversity, while woodlots consistently showed the lowest richness and diversity. Home-gardens exhibited a significant trade-off between species richness and evenness (J = 0.61), driven by the dominance of Catha edulis and Eucalyptus spp. The results also highlight the overlooked role of boundary live fences in sustaining woody species diversity within farming systems. Multivariate analysis (ANOSIM, Global R = 0.39) indicated moderate compositional differences, driven by practice-specific dominance of woody species rather than complete species turnover. Overall, the study underscores the importance of integrating higher tree diversity across agroforestry practices and implementing targeted diversification strategies to enhance agrobiodiversity and livelihood outcomes in dryland agroecosystems.
农场树木资源维持生物多样性，提供多种产品，并提高农业系统的复原力。了解农场树木资源的多样性和组成对于设计树木种植干预措施至关重要，但在许多社会生态背景下仍未得到探索。本研究评估了埃塞俄比亚东北部Kalu地区不同农林业方式下木本植物的物种组成和多样性。采用多阶段随机抽样的方法，在两个研究地点（低地和中部）共选择54个样本农场，对四种农林业实践（农林业公园、家庭花园、边界活围栏和林地种植园）中的木本植物进行调查。共记录到56种木本植物，其中66%为本地植物，34%为外来植物。不同农林业方式的物种丰富度和多样性差异显著（p < 0.05），家庭花园和围栏的平均丰富度较高（分别为5.85种和4.33种）。公园地的多样性较低，林地的丰富度和多样性均最低。在Catha edulis和Eucalyptus的主导下，家庭花园的物种丰富度和均匀度之间存在显著的权衡关系（J = 0.61）。研究结果还强调了边界围栏在维持农业系统内木本物种多样性方面被忽视的作用。多变量分析（ANOSIM, Global R = 0.39）表明，不同树种间存在适度的成分差异，这主要是由木本树种的特定优势驱动，而非完全的物种更替。总体而言，该研究强调了在农林业实践中整合高等树木多样性和实施有针对性的多样化战略的重要性，以提高旱地农业生态系统的农业生物多样性和生计成果。
{"title":"Species composition and diversity of on-farm tree resources in Kalu district, Northeastern Ethiopia","authors":"Mohammed Ahmed Ebrahim , Zebene Asfaw , Shewakena Teklegiorgis , Ewunetu Tazebew","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On-farm tree resources sustain biodiversity, provide multiple products, and improve resilience of farming systems. Understanding the diversity and composition of on-farm tree resources is essential for designing tree-growing interventions, yet remains unexplored in many socio-ecological contexts. This study assessed the species composition and diversity of woody plants across agroforestry practices in Kalu district, Northeastern Ethiopia. A multistage random sampling was employed to select a total of 54 sample farms across two study sites (Lowland and Midland) to inventory woody plants in four agroforestry practices: agroforestry parklands, home-gardens, boundary live fences, and woodlot plantations. A total of 56 woody species were recorded across farmlands, of which 66 % were native and 34 % were exotic. Species richness and diversity differed significantly among agroforestry practices (<em>p</em> < 0.05), with home-gardens and live fences showing high average richness (5.85 and 4.33 species, respectively). Parklands supported lower diversity, while woodlots consistently showed the lowest richness and diversity. Home-gardens exhibited a significant trade-off between species richness and evenness (<em>J</em> = 0.61), driven by the dominance of <em>Catha edulis</em> and <em>Eucalyptus</em> spp. The results also highlight the overlooked role of boundary live fences in sustaining woody species diversity within farming systems. Multivariate analysis (ANOSIM, Global <em>R</em> = 0.39) indicated moderate compositional differences, driven by practice-specific dominance of woody species rather than complete species turnover. Overall, the study underscores the importance of integrating higher tree diversity across agroforestry practices and implementing targeted diversification strategies to enhance agrobiodiversity and livelihood outcomes in dryland agroecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03168"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite national strategies to digitize education, the gap between administrative policy and classroom reality remains significant, particularly regarding the impact of digital tools on equity in underserved settings. This study addresses the urgent need to evaluate how technology integration affects student outcomes in resource-constrained environments. Guided by Viau’s motivational framework and Rabardel’s instrumental approach, we employed a mixed-methods design to investigate the integration of multimedia tools, specifically Scratch and GeoGebra, among fourth-grade students in rural Morocco. Data were collected through surveys with teachers (n = 132) and students (n = 148), followed by a comparative intervention involving control and experimental groups. The results demonstrate that utilizing technology as a pedagogical instrument, rather than a mere delivery mechanism, significantly enhances student engagement, cognitive autonomy, and perseverance compared to traditional instruction. Specifically, the intervention group showed statistically significant gains in perceived choice and performance. Distinct from prior studies that focus solely on infrastructure access, this research provides rare empirical evidence from North Africa demonstrating that well-designed interactive learning environments function as equity levers. Crucially, we show that digital tools reduce the performance gap between high- and low-achieving students in resource-constrained rural settings.
{"title":"Pedagogical integration of information communication and technologies in rural mathematics education: Enhancing motivation and equity in low-resource contexts","authors":"Hajar Zoubir , Abderrahmane Ben Rherbal , Youssef Sefri , Abdelhak Chakli","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite national strategies to digitize education, the gap between administrative policy and classroom reality remains significant, particularly regarding the impact of digital tools on equity in underserved settings. This study addresses the urgent need to evaluate how technology integration affects student outcomes in resource-constrained environments. Guided by Viau’s motivational framework and Rabardel’s instrumental approach, we employed a mixed-methods design to investigate the integration of multimedia tools, specifically Scratch and GeoGebra, among fourth-grade students in rural Morocco. Data were collected through surveys with teachers (<em>n</em> = 132) and students (<em>n</em> = 148), followed by a comparative intervention involving control and experimental groups. The results demonstrate that utilizing technology as a pedagogical instrument, rather than a mere delivery mechanism, significantly enhances student engagement, cognitive autonomy, and perseverance compared to traditional instruction. Specifically, the intervention group showed statistically significant gains in perceived choice and performance. Distinct from prior studies that focus solely on infrastructure access, this research provides rare empirical evidence from North Africa demonstrating that well-designed interactive learning environments function as equity levers. Crucially, we show that digital tools reduce the performance gap between high- and low-achieving students in resource-constrained rural settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03171"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145924883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-31DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03174
Samphelix O. Obende , Charles O. Ochieng , Emmanuel A. Shikanga , Wilberforce Ndarawit , Njogu M. Kimani
The search for new anticancer agents has led to the exploration of various botanical resources, with the genus Croton emerging as a promising source of bioactive compounds. CDK4/6 are key cell cycle regulators linked to cancer pathogenesis, and their inhibition has been shown to be effective in treating various cancer cases. Although inhibitors like ribociclib and abemaciclib have demonstrated therapeutic effectiveness, resistance to these drugs invariably arises, requiring the investigation of alternative therapeutic options. In this study, computational screening techniques were used to identify potential dual inhibitors of CDK4/6, aiming to expedite the discovery of alternative anticancer therapeutics from Croton phytochemical data. Prior to structure-based virtual screening, phytochemicals from Croton Spp were identified by an in-depth review of the literature. The chemical space of these phytochemicals was analyzed in comparison with FDA cancer compounds. The resultant druglike molecules were docked into CDK4 (7SJ3) and 6 (5L2T) receptors. The high-ranking ligands were subjected to molecular simulations and HOMO-LUMO energy gap assessments. In chemical space analysis, 56 out of 900 Croton compounds were found to have similar properties to FDA anticancer agents. Molecular docking studies of these 56 compounds revealed that 26 compounds showed high docking scores with CDK6, similar to ribociclib, and six compounds with CDK4, similar to abemaciclib. Cracroson F (1), Crotocascarin K (2), Cajucarinolide (3), and Isocajucarinolide (4) were predicted as the dual inhibitors showing docking scores for CDK4 (-11, -11, -10.7, and -10.6 kcalmol-1, respectively) and CDK6 (-9.1, -9.4, -8.4, and -9.6 kcalmol-1, respectively). Compounds 1 and 3 showed stability in 200 ns MD simulations, generating hydrophobic, ionic, and hydrogen interactions with an ideal radius of gyration and root mean square deviations and fluctuations (RMSD and RMSF). DFT calculation revealed that 3 (ΔE = 3.522 eV) was more reactive than 1 (ΔE = 3.648 eV) due to its HOMO-LUMO gap, though both were inferior to the standards. These two compounds were predicted to have acceptable pharmacokinetics, off-target, and toxicity profiles, indicating their potential as drug candidates. The in silico study thus identified promising Croton-lead compounds with potential anticancer properties, requiring further experimental (in vitro and in vivo) evaluation.
{"title":"Computational insights into Croton species as sources of CDK4/6 inhibitors for cancer therapy","authors":"Samphelix O. Obende , Charles O. Ochieng , Emmanuel A. Shikanga , Wilberforce Ndarawit , Njogu M. Kimani","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The search for new anticancer agents has led to the exploration of various botanical resources, with the genus Croton emerging as a promising source of bioactive compounds. CDK4/6 are key cell cycle regulators linked to cancer pathogenesis, and their inhibition has been shown to be effective in treating various cancer cases. Although inhibitors like ribociclib and abemaciclib have demonstrated therapeutic effectiveness, resistance to these drugs invariably arises, requiring the investigation of alternative therapeutic options. In this study, computational screening techniques were used to identify potential dual inhibitors of CDK4/6, aiming to expedite the discovery of alternative anticancer therapeutics from Croton phytochemical data. Prior to structure-based virtual screening, phytochemicals from Croton Spp were identified by an in-depth review of the literature. The chemical space of these phytochemicals was analyzed in comparison with FDA cancer compounds. The resultant druglike molecules were docked into CDK4 (7SJ3) and 6 (5L2T) receptors. The high-ranking ligands were subjected to molecular simulations and HOMO-LUMO energy gap assessments. In chemical space analysis, 56 out of 900 Croton compounds were found to have similar properties to FDA anticancer agents. Molecular docking studies of these 56 compounds revealed that 26 compounds showed high docking scores with CDK6, similar to ribociclib, and six compounds with CDK4, similar to abemaciclib. Cracroson F (<strong>1</strong>), Crotocascarin K (<strong>2</strong>), Cajucarinolide (<strong>3</strong>), and Isocajucarinolide (<strong>4</strong>) were predicted as the dual inhibitors showing docking scores for CDK4 (-11, -11, -10.7, and -10.6 kcalmol<sup>-1</sup>, respectively) and CDK6 (-9.1, -9.4, -8.4, and -9.6 kcalmol<sup>-1</sup>, respectively). Compounds <strong>1</strong> and <strong>3</strong> showed stability in 200 ns MD simulations, generating hydrophobic, ionic, and hydrogen interactions with an ideal radius of gyration and root mean square deviations and fluctuations (RMSD and RMSF). DFT calculation revealed that <strong>3</strong> (ΔE = 3.522 eV) was more reactive than <strong>1</strong> (ΔE = 3.648 eV) due to its HOMO-LUMO gap, though both were inferior to the standards. These two compounds were predicted to have acceptable pharmacokinetics, off-target, and toxicity profiles, indicating their potential as drug candidates. The in silico study thus identified promising Croton-lead compounds with potential anticancer properties, requiring further experimental (in vitro and in vivo) evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03174"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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