Journal of Hydrology最新文献_第8页

Heatwaves only partially offset increased water consumption from earlier greening: the case of the Kashi Basin in Central Asia 热浪只是部分抵消了早期绿化所增加的用水量：中亚喀什盆地的例子

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135031

Lilin Zheng , Ling Wang , Annah Lake Zhu , Dahui Li , Ruishan Chen , Jianhua Xu , Xiaona Guo , Nan Jia

Excessive water consumption resulting from an earlier green-up date (GUD) driven by climate warming may be mitigated by reduced evapotranspiration (ET) during summer heatwaves. However, their relative contributions to water consumption remain unclear. Here, we integrate satellite-derived phenology, reanalysis-based heatwave indices and a physically based eco-hydrological model to disentangle the effects of earlier GUD and heatwaves on ET and streamflow in the Kashi Basin (KSB), an inland basin on the western slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia. From 2001 to 2020, GUD in the basin advanced by 0.38 days yr⁻¹ (∼12 days earlier relative to 2001), while nighttime and daytime heatwaves (represented by TN90p and TX90p) increased by 0.53 and 0.39 days yr⁻¹, respectively. Model estimates indicate that earlier GUD increases annual basin-mean ET by 11.24 mm (5.72% of baseline ET; 95% CI: 8.47–13.99) and reduces annual streamflow by 0.56 × 10⁸ m³ (1.59% of baseline streamflow; 95% CI: −0.70–0.42 × 10⁸ m³). By contrast, increased heatwaves are associated with a small annual ET reduction of 1.15 mm (0.58% of baseline ET; 95% CI: −1.51–0.75) and a modest annual streamflow increase of 0.06 × 10⁸ m³ (0.17% of baseline streamflow; 95% CI: 0.04–0.08 × 10⁸ m³). The combined GUD × heatwave scenario yields a slightly larger ET increase and streamflow reduction than the linear sum of individual effects. Thus, in this cold and semi-arid basin, heatwave-related ET savings compensate for only about 10% of the additional ET linked to earlier green-up (95% CI: 7%–12.6%). A Tianshan-wide analysis further shows that 59.88% of alpine vegetation experienced both advancing GUD and late-summer browning, consistent with basin-scale evidence that enhanced spring growth can erode, rather than enhance, the carryover benefits of spring greening by depleting water resources needed to sustain summer vegetation activity.

由于气候变暖导致的绿期提前（GUD）导致的过度用水可能会因夏季热浪期间蒸发蒸腾（ET）的减少而得到缓解。然而，它们对水消耗的相对贡献仍不清楚。本文综合利用卫星物候数据、基于再分析的热浪指数和基于物理的生态水文模型，分析了早期古风和热浪对中亚天山西坡内陆盆地喀什盆地ET和径流的影响。从2001年到2020年，流域的GUD增加了0.38天（比2001年提前了~ 12天），而夜间和日间热浪（以TN90p和TX90p为代表）分别增加了0.53天和0.39天。模式估计表明，早期的GUD使年流域平均ET增加11.24 mm（基线ET的5.72%;95% CI: 8.47-13.99），使年流量减少0.56 × 108 m3（基线流量的1.59%;95% CI: - 0.70-0.42 × 108 m3）。相比之下，热浪增加与年蒸散量减少1.15 mm（基线蒸散量的0.58%;95% CI: - 1.51-0.75）和年流量适度增加0.06 × 108 m3（基线流量的0.17%;95% CI: 0.04-0.08 × 108 m3）相关。与单个效应的线性总和相比，古德温×热浪情景的蒸散发增加和流流量减少略大。因此，在这个寒冷和半干旱的盆地中，与热浪相关的ET节约仅补偿了与早期绿化相关的额外ET的10% （95% CI: 7%-12.6%）。在天山范围内的分析进一步表明，59.88%的高寒植被经历了提前的GUD和夏末褐变，这与流域尺度上的证据一致，即春季生长的增强会通过消耗维持夏季植被活动所需的水资源来侵蚀而不是增强春季绿化的后续效益。

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引用次数: 0

From molecular mechanisms to remote sensing retrievals: a physically consistent framework for fluorescent dissolved organic matter 从分子机制到遥感检索：荧光溶解有机物的物理一致框架

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135047

Ruiwu Zhang , Ruru Deng , Jun Ying , Cong Lei , Junying Yang , Huahong Ni , Zhuoqun Chai , Tongtong Zhao

Fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), a key carrier of bioactive carbon in aquatic systems, is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle. However, most remote sensing retrievals rely on empirical statistics, lacking physical interpretation of fluorescence mechanisms and radiative transfer, which limits their applicability in optically complex waters. This study develops a molecular mechanism-based quantitative inversion method for fDOM. A molecular two-level transition model is used to derive the excitation–emission photon kernel and apparent quantum yield (AQY), which are mapped to the bulk emission coefficient. The framework incorporates the Eddington two-stream approximation, interface transmittance, inner-filter correction, and multi-component absorption parameterization, solved through Tikhonov regularization. Field measurements in the Pearl River Estuary and Weizhou Island validated the model. The estuary showed higher fDOM concentrations and a fluorescence peak at Ex/Em = 335/455 nm, indicating terrestrial input, whereas Weizhou Island exhibited a marine-derived peak at Ex/Em = 315/435 nm. Accounting for the inner-filter effect notably improved simulation accuracy, especially in high-concentration waters. Fisher information analysis identified AQY and the absorption slope as key stable parameters. The inversion results correlated well with observations. This molecular mechanism-based framework provides a physically grounded approach for quantitative fDOM remote sensing and offers strong potential for application in optically complex aquatic environments.

荧光溶解有机物（fDOM）是水生系统中生物活性炭的重要载体，对了解全球碳循环至关重要。然而，大多数遥感检索依赖于经验统计，缺乏对荧光机制和辐射转移的物理解释，这限制了它们在光学复杂水域的适用性。本研究开发了一种基于分子机理的fDOM定量反演方法。利用分子两能级跃迁模型推导了激发发射光子核和表观量子产率，并将其映射到体发射系数。该框架包含Eddington双流近似、界面透射率、内滤波器校正和多分量吸收参数化，并通过Tikhonov正则化求解。珠江口和涠洲岛实测数据验证了该模型的有效性。河口fDOM浓度较高，荧光峰位于Ex/Em = 335/455 nm处，为陆地输入；涠洲岛fDOM荧光峰位于Ex/Em = 315/435 nm处，为海洋输入。考虑到内滤效应显著提高了模拟精度，特别是在高浓度水域。Fisher信息分析表明，AQY和吸收斜率是关键的稳定参数。反演结果与观测吻合较好。这种基于分子机制的框架为定量fDOM遥感提供了一种物理基础方法，并为光学复杂的水生环境提供了强大的应用潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Full-Process simulation and risk assessment framework for compound flooding in inland cities with high external inflow 内陆高流入城市复合洪水全过程模拟与风险评估框架

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135024

Chenchen Fan , Jingming Hou , Donglai Li , Yongping Yang , Gangfu Song , Tian Wang , Jiahao Lv , Xuan Li , Guangzhao Chen , Peiqi Zhang , Yanhong Wang , Bingxue Li , Xinxin Pan , Pinpin Lu , Yuying Yang , Ruixue Zhang

As compound urban flooding grows more common, inland cities with high external inflow (HEI) encounter increased flood risks. This is due to the combined effects of such external inflow and local surface runoff. Current research has predominantly concentrated on local rainfall-runoff dynamics, with little emphasis on the compound flooding mechanisms and the corresponding risk progression in inland urban areas, influenced collectively by precipitation, external input, and fluctuations in river stages. A multi-module dynamic coupling framework was created to facilitate comprehensive modeling and risk assessment of compound urban flooding, which was implemented in Weinan City, China, a representative HEI city. The framework incorporated a semi-distributed hydrological module, a two-dimensional (2D) surface hydrodynamic module, a one-dimensional (1D) drainage network module, and a one-dimensional river hydrodynamic module, which were dynamically coupled through node–cell–section interactions to enable cross-module water and momentum exchange. In addition, a dual-indicator risk assessment framework utilizing maximum water depth and the depth–velocity product was introduced to characterize inundation risk and hydrodynamic risk under compound forcing. The findings indicated that concentrated external inflow substantially altered surface runoff evolution, enhanced flow convergence and rapid conveyance along major road networks, while elevated river stages further restrict outlet discharge through backwater effects, thereby weakening drainage capacity and prolonging surface inundation. The dual-indicator assessment reveals a structural mismatch and partial spatial overlap between inundation risk and hydrodynamic risk. In the examined HEI city, inundation under a P = 100-year rainfall scenario was comparable to that under a P = 30-year rainfall scenario with external inflow, whereas external inflow primarily amplified hydrodynamic risk (659.39%) and river backwater predominantly increased inundation risk (73.06%). This study enhanced the modeling and risk evaluation of urban flooding caused by many compound factors, offering novel perspectives on optimizing drainage systems and managing floods resiliently in anticipation of future catastrophic events.

随着城市复合型洪涝灾害的日益普遍，高外来流入量（HEI）的内陆城市面临的洪涝风险日益增加。这是由于这种外部流入和当地地表径流的综合影响。目前的研究主要集中在当地的降雨-径流动态，很少强调内陆城市地区的复合洪水机制和相应的风险进展，这些机制和风险进展受到降水、外部输入和河流阶段波动的共同影响。构建多模块动态耦合框架，促进城市复合型洪涝灾害的综合建模和风险评估，并以HEI代表性城市渭南市为例进行了实施。该框架包括半分布式水文模块、二维（2D）地表水动力模块、一维（1D）排水网络模块和一维河流水动力模块，它们通过节点-细胞-截面相互作用进行动态耦合，实现跨模块的水和动量交换。此外，引入了利用最大水深和深度-速度乘积的双指标风险评估框架来表征复合强迫下的淹没风险和水动力风险。研究结果表明，集中的外来流入极大地改变了地表径流演变，增强了水流汇聚和沿主要道路网络的快速输送，而高架河段通过回水效应进一步限制了出口流量，从而削弱了排水能力，延长了地表淹没时间。双指标评估结果显示，淹没风险与水动力风险存在结构失配和部分空间重叠。在高指数城市中，P = 100年降水情景下的淹没风险与P = 30年降水情景下的淹没风险相当，但外部来水主要放大了水动力风险（659.39%），河流回水主要增加了淹没风险（73.06%）。本研究加强了由多种复合因素引起的城市洪水的建模和风险评估，为优化排水系统和应对未来灾难性事件的洪水弹性管理提供了新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Non-uniform suspended sediment transport in turbulent open channel flows under non-equilibrium conditions 非平衡条件下明渠湍流非均匀悬浮泥沙输运

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135020

Jinlan Guo, Adrian Wing-Keung Law

The present study proposes an analytical framework to investigate steady-state non-equilibrium transport for non-uniform sediment particles in turbulent open-channel flows. The framework systematically evaluates a generalized bottom boundary condition and its six specialized formulations, analyzing how boundary conditions govern the vertical sediment concentration distribution and, through coupled advection–diffusion dynamics, shape its longitudinal development. The derived solutions are validated against existing theoretical models. The results indicate that discrepancies between deposition and entrainment rates induce flux-equilibrium states where the vertical profile is stable despite a near-bed concentration that deviates from the classical equilibrium value. Specifically, higher deposition rates relative to entrainment reduce near-bed concentrations, whereas greater entrainment elevates them above equilibrium values. The attainment of equilibrium concentrations is contingent only upon the equalisation of deposition and entrainment rates. Furthermore, vertical equilibrium profiles are found to be invariant under specific boundary conditions; however, they demonstrate sediment depletion or stratification under other conditions. The settling velocity of particles has been shown to significantly influence the vertical distribution of sediment, with reduced downward fluxes resulting in more uniform profiles due to enhanced turbulent diffusion. Non-uniform sediments have been shown to demonstrate more homogeneous vertical distributions compared to uniform sediments, attributed to hiding-hindering interactions. These insights advance predictive modeling of sediment transport by integrating proper boundary conditions that account for particle-size non-uniformity and flux-driven disequilibrium mechanisms, with implications for riverine management and coastal engineering applications.

本研究提出了一个分析框架来研究湍流明渠中非均匀泥沙颗粒的稳态非平衡输运。该框架系统地评估了一个广义的底边界条件及其六个专门的公式，分析了边界条件如何控制沉积物浓度的垂直分布，并通过耦合的平流-扩散动力学影响其纵向发展。推导出的解与现有的理论模型进行了验证。结果表明，沉积速率和夹带速率之间的差异导致了通量平衡状态，尽管近层浓度偏离了经典平衡值，但垂直剖面是稳定的。具体来说，相对于夹带，较高的沉积速率降低了近层浓度，而较大的夹带则使其高于平衡值。达到平衡浓度只取决于沉积速率和夹带速率的平衡。此外，在特定的边界条件下，垂直平衡剖面是不变的；然而，它们显示了在其他条件下沉积物的消耗或分层。颗粒的沉降速度已被证明对沉积物的垂直分布有显著影响，由于湍流扩散的增强，向下通量的减少导致了更均匀的剖面。与均匀沉积物相比，由于隐藏-阻碍相互作用，非均匀沉积物表现出更均匀的垂直分布。这些见解通过整合考虑粒度不均匀性和通量驱动的不平衡机制的适当边界条件，推进了沉积物运输的预测建模，并对河流管理和海岸工程应用产生了影响。

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引用次数: 0

Nonstationary agricultural drought risk under compound meteorological drought and hot conditions 气象干热复合条件下的非平稳农业干旱风险

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135059

Quan Zhang , Ziyang Lu , Jiaolong Ying , Yue Qiu , Panpan Wang , Zhipeng Xu , Dongxiao Xu , Yongping Li

Agricultural drought poses a major threat to crop and plant productivity, primarily driven by precipitation deficits (meteorological drought) and extreme hot events. Under global warming, the dependencies among agricultural drought, meteorological drought, and heat extremes become increasingly nonstationary and time-varying. However, existing approaches generally assume stationarity, limiting the accurate assessment of agricultural drought risk. Inspired by Patton’s theory, this study develops a novel nonstationary vine copula conditional probability model (NVCCP). NVCCP enables the quantification of nonstationary conditional probability of agricultural drought under compound dry-hot conditions. The effectiveness of NVCCP is illustrated in the Aral Sea Basin, which is an agricultural dominant area. The results indicate that compared with other stationary multivariate dependence models, NVCCP performs best in capturing the complex relationship among agricultural drought, hot events, and meteorological drought. From March to May, agricultural drought risks are increased, reflecting the seasonal evolution of land-surface hydrological conditions. Over the past 70 years, decreasing and increasing trends account for 33% (32%) and 27% (28%) of the Aral Sea Basin for normal (severe) agricultural drought, respectively. Compared with March and May, agricultural drought in April exhibits more pronounced temporal variability, with an average absolute trend of 0.0007/a. Overall, NVCCP is an effective nonstationary method that can be applied in other sectors and provides critical insights for nonstationary research.

农业干旱对作物和植物生产力构成重大威胁，主要是由降水不足（气象干旱）和极端炎热事件造成的。在全球变暖背景下，农业干旱、气象干旱和极端高温三者之间的依赖关系变得越来越非平稳性和时变性。然而，现有的方法通常假定为平稳性，限制了对农业干旱风险的准确评估。在Patton理论的启发下，本研究提出了一种新的非平稳藤联条件概率模型（NVCCP）。NVCCP可以量化复合干热条件下农业干旱的非平稳条件概率。咸海盆地是一个农业优势地区，说明了NVCCP的有效性。结果表明，与其他平稳多元依赖模型相比，NVCCP模型最能反映农业干旱、高温事件和气象干旱之间的复杂关系。3 - 5月农业干旱风险增加，反映了地表水文条件的季节性演变。70年来，咸海盆地正常（严重）农业干旱的减少和增加趋势分别占33%（32%）和27%（28%）。与3月和5月相比，4月农业干旱的时间变异性更为明显，平均绝对趋势为0.0007/a。总体而言，NVCCP是一种有效的非平稳方法，可以应用于其他领域，并为非平稳研究提供重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Climate modulation and intensity-stratified moisture sources in major global river basins 全球主要河流流域的气候调节与强度分层水汽来源

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135049

Xingxing Zhang , Zhaocai Wang , Tomasz Janus , Hou Jiang , Zhaofei Liu , Liguang Jiang , Yizhu Zhu , Yaozhi Jiang , Zhijun Yao , Hua Wu

Understanding how atmospheric moisture pathways regulate precipitation variability is essential for basin-scale water security under climate change. Here we present a global, intensity-stratified analysis of moisture sources and transport across seven major river basins using ERA5 reanalysis and the WAM-2layers model. By combining precipitationshed diagnostics with empirical orthogonal function analysis, we identify dominant and higher-order moisture transport modes and assess their roles in seasonal and extreme precipitation. River basins are classified into ocean-dominated, mixed-source, and land-dominated regimes based on the structure and variability of moisture transport. Ocean-dominated basins exhibit coherent moisture pathways and strong coupling between precipitation and the leading transport mode, whereas land-dominated and high-latitude basins show weaker coupling and a greater reliance on higher-order modes, particularly during seasonal transitions and heavy precipitation events. Mixed-source basins maintain robust precipitation–transport relationships despite pronounced seasonal shifts. We further identify regime-dependent multi-decadal shifts in moisture source regions and seasonally varying climate influences on transport modes, demonstrating that mean moisture source fractions alone cannot explain precipitation variability and extremes. These findings improve our understanding of basin-specific hydroclimatic responses and offer valuable insights for future hydrological predictions and climate adaptation.

了解大气水分途径如何调节降水变率对于气候变化下流域尺度的水安全至关重要。本文利用ERA5再分析和WAM-2layers模式对7个主要流域的水汽来源和输送进行了全球强度分层分析。通过降水诊断与经验正交函数分析相结合，我们确定了主要和高阶水分输送模式，并评估了它们在季节性和极端降水中的作用。根据水分输送的结构和变化，将流域划分为海洋主导型、混合源主导型和陆地主导型。以海洋为主导的盆地表现出连贯的水汽通道和降水与主要运输模式之间的强耦合，而以陆地为主导的盆地和高纬度盆地表现出较弱的耦合和对高阶模式的更多依赖，特别是在季节过渡和强降水事件期间。尽管季节变化明显，但混合源盆地仍保持强劲的降水-输送关系。我们进一步确定了水汽源区的多年代际变化和季节变化的气候对运输模式的影响，表明平均水汽源区分数不能单独解释降水变率和极端事件。这些发现提高了我们对流域特定水文气候响应的理解，并为未来的水文预测和气候适应提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Hydrological connectivity and landscape composition shape nutrient export: Evidence from SWAT and machine learning analysis in the Longxi River Basin 水文连通性与景观组成形态养分输出：基于SWAT和机器学习分析的龙溪流域证据

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135013

Shaojun Tan , Jianfeng Xu , Kai Wang , Haiming Lu , Xianqiang Tang , Danyang Wang , Lishan Ran , Deti Xie , Jiupai Ni , Fangxin Chen , Wendi Wang , Eugenio Straffelini

Understanding how hydrological connectivity and landscape patterns influence nutrient export is critical for clarifying the mechanisms driving non-point source pollution in river basins, especially where agriculture is largely practice. This study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) export loads in the Longxi River Basin (LRB, in China) during 2021–2022. Using Random Forest (RF) and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), the research explored the influences of terrain, landscape configuration, landscape composition, and aggregated hydrological connectivity (AIC) on TN and TP exports. Results indicated that average summer TN and TP exports accounted for 51.11% and 52.55% of the annual totals, respectively. Liangping and Dianjiang Countiy, along with the adjacent Changshou Lake reservoir, exhibited the highest hydrological connectivity indices within the watershed, especially during summer. RF model analysis identified landscape composition and hydrological connectivity as the primary factors governing TN and TP exports. Findings highlight the importance of managing hydrological connectivity and optimizing landscape composition as strategies for reducing nutrient losses and mitigating non-point source pollution in watershed management.

了解水文连通性和景观格局如何影响养分输出，对于阐明驱动河流流域非点源污染的机制至关重要，尤其是在农业为主的地区。利用SWAT模拟了陇西流域2021-2022年的总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）输出负荷。利用随机森林（RF）和偏最小二乘结构方程模型（PLS-SEM），研究了地形、景观配置、景观组成和聚集水文连通性（AIC）对总氮和总磷输出的影响。结果表明，夏季平均总氮和总磷出口量分别占全年总氮和总磷出口量的51.11%和52.55%。梁平县和垫江县及其相邻的长寿湖水库在流域内水文连通性指数最高，尤其是在夏季。RF模型分析发现，景观组成和水文连通性是控制全氮和总磷出口的主要因素。研究结果强调了在流域管理中，管理水文连通性和优化景观组成作为减少养分损失和减轻非点源污染的战略的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Analytical solutions for coupled unsaturated-saturated flow model in riparian zones: applicability and limitations 河岸带非饱和-饱和耦合流动模型的解析解：适用性与局限性

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135035

Chengyan Wen , Xiuyu Liang , Hongbin Zhan , Haokun Mu , Yunqiu Zhou

Understanding water flow in unsaturated zones is critical to riparian hydrology, but the governing Richards equation is highly nonlinear and typically requires numerical methods that can be computationally expensive. Analytical solutions provide a simpler alternative, yet their applicability in coupled unsaturated–saturated systems has not been systematically evaluated, limiting their broader use in hydrologic modeling. In this study, we develop a coupled unsaturated–saturated flow model for a representative riparian transect by applying a perturbation approach to linearize the Richards equation. Analytical solutions are derived for two natural forcing conditions: time-varying infiltration and river stage fluctuations. The solutions are first validated against linearized numerical solutions and then evaluated against fully nonlinear numerical models to assess their accuracy and limitations. The analytical solution is further applied to sand flume experiments simulating river stage fluctuations in riparian zones, thereby demonstrating its practical applicability. Results show that the analytical solution performs well under river stage fluctuation scenarios, demonstrating high accuracy in predicting river-groundwater exchange flux. However, their applicability is reduced under time-varying infiltration conditions, particularly when high infiltration intensity or a thick unsaturated zone is present. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of analytical solutions in coupled flow systems, clarifies their practical limitations, and supports their application as efficient tools in riparian hydrology modeling.

了解非饱和带的水流对河岸水文学至关重要，但控制理查兹方程是高度非线性的，通常需要数值方法，计算成本很高。解析解提供了一种更简单的替代方案，但其在非饱和-饱和耦合系统中的适用性尚未得到系统评估，限制了其在水文建模中的广泛应用。在这项研究中，我们通过应用微扰方法对理查兹方程进行线性化，建立了一个具有代表性的河岸样带的非饱和-饱和耦合流动模型。推导了时变入渗和河段波动两种自然强迫条件的解析解。首先对线性化数值解进行验证，然后对完全非线性数值模型进行评估，以评估其准确性和局限性。将解析解进一步应用于模拟河岸带河段波动的沙槽实验，验证了解析解的实用性。结果表明，该解析解在河段波动情景下表现良好，对河段-地下水交换通量具有较高的预测精度。然而，在时变入渗条件下，特别是当入渗强度高或存在较厚的非饱和带时，其适用性降低。本研究对耦合流动系统的解析解进行了全面的评价，阐明了它们的实际局限性，并支持它们作为河岸水文建模的有效工具的应用。

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引用次数: 0

Sensitivity of hydrogeomechanical parameters in highly compressible aquitards via inverse modeling of one-dimensional subsidence 基于一维沉降反模拟的高压缩性含水层水文地质力学参数敏感性研究

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135017

Berenice Zapata-Norberto , Eric Morales-Casique , René Contreras-Galván , José A. Ramos-Leal

Land subsidence induced by groundwater extraction is a significant issue worldwide. Some of the highest subsidence rates occur in aquifer systems overlain by thick and heterogeneous aquitards composed of highly compressible sediments. Identifying the key parameters controlling vertical deformation can guide model setup and improve model efficiency and reliability. This study employs inverse modeling to evaluate the composite sensitivity of land subsidence to hydrogeological and geomechanical parameters in a stratified, heterogeneous, and highly compressible aquitard undergoing intensive groundwater extraction from an underlying aquifer. The research site, located in the Mexico Basin, features an aquitard approximately 100 m thick, monitored over 10 years using piezometric stations and multi-extensometers. Two conceptual models of vertical deformation distribution were analyzed: Case 1, with deformation occurring both within the aquitard and in compressible interbeds within the underlying aquifer, and Case 2, with deformation confined solely to the aquitard. Calibration was performed by coupling a one-dimensional nonlinear subsidence algorithm with stress-dependent parameters and the PEST parameter-estimation tool. Results indicate that total settlement and vertical deformation are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivity (K) than to compression index (C_c) or void ratio (e), with sensitivity increasing with depth, consistent with drawdown propagating upward from the aquifer. While C_c governs the potential magnitude of deformation, K controls the rate of change in hydraulic head, h, and thus the temporal evolution of deformation and land-subsidence rates. Case 1 best reproduced observed deformation and yielded field-consistent calibrated parameters.

地下水开采引起的地面沉降是一个世界性的重大问题。一些沉降率最高的含水层系统上覆盖着由高度可压缩性沉积物组成的厚而非均质含水层。识别控制竖向变形的关键参数可以指导模型的建立，提高模型的效率和可靠性。本研究采用逆建模方法，评估了在一个分层、非均质、高度可压缩的地下含水层中，地面沉降对水文地质和地质力学参数的综合敏感性。该研究地点位于墨西哥盆地，具有约100米厚的aquard，使用压力测量站和多延伸计进行了10多年的监测。分析了两种垂直变形分布的概念模型：Case 1，变形既发生在含水层内部，也发生在下伏含水层的可压缩互层中；Case 2，变形仅局限于含水层。通过结合应力相关参数的一维非线性沉降算法和PEST参数估计工具进行标定。结果表明：总沉降和竖向变形对导水系数(K)的敏感性大于对压缩指数（Cc）或孔隙比(e)的敏感性，且敏感性随深度的增加而增加，与沉降从含水层向上扩展的趋势一致。Cc控制着潜在的变形幅度，而K控制着水头h的变化率，从而控制着变形和地面沉降率的时间演变。案例1最好地再现了观测到的变形，并产生了与现场一致的校准参数。

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引用次数: 0

Multiscale simulation and machine learning sensitivity analysis of pore-structure controls on solute transport in heterogeneous porous media 非均质多孔介质中孔隙结构对溶质输运控制的多尺度模拟与机器学习敏感性分析

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135043

Sida Jia , Yuyang Huang , Junjun Chen , Zhongjun Ma , Jian Tian , Zhenxue Dai

Subsurface solute transport processes are strongly governed by the morphology of the porous media that the solute passes through. Quantifying the dynamic mechanisms of subsurface solute transport across different spatial scales remains a challenge. This study developed an innovative deep learning (DL) based multiscale modeling framework that integrated physics-based Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations with DL to link pore-scale structural parameters directly to macroscopic solute transport characteristics. High-fidelity datasets of velocity fields and concentration breakthroughs were generated by solving the Navier-Stokes and advection–dispersion equations, providing a rigorous basis for benchmarking three DL architectures: ResNet, U-Net, and a hybrid U-Net Transformer. The optimal surrogate model, which achieved a significant speedup of over five orders of magnitude (10⁵×) compared to FEM, was coupled with Sobol global sensitivity analysis and DL assisted regression. This integrated approach not only quantifies the individual impacts of microscopic geometric features such as porosity, pore size, connectivity, and tortuosity on macroscopic transport parameters and breakthrough curves (BTCs) characteristics, but also derives approximate quantitative relationships linking pore-scale microstructures to their corresponding macroscopic transport responses. Systematic sensitivity analysis revealed cross-scale controlling mechanisms; throat size played a dominant role in controlling solute transport and adsorption behavior, and microscopic geometric features exhibited high sensitivity to dispersion coefficient. Temporal dynamics analysis indicated that the minimum pore-throat diameter determined the breakthrough time, and nucleation density influenced the initial solute arrival. Moreover, quantitative relationships between key parameters were established through individual-parameter effect analysis, revealing nonlinear controlling relationships among porosity, tortuosity, sorting coefficient, and other factors that governed solute transport. Overall, this study advances the current mechanistic understanding of how multiscale pore structures influence solute transport behavior, providing a predictive framework for subsurface environmental and energy-related applications.

地下溶质输运过程在很大程度上受溶质所通过的多孔介质形态的支配。在不同的空间尺度上量化地下溶质运移的动力学机制仍然是一个挑战。本研究开发了一种创新的基于深度学习（DL）的多尺度建模框架，该框架将基于物理的有限元方法（FEM）模拟与DL相结合，将孔隙尺度结构参数直接与宏观溶质输运特征联系起来。通过求解Navier-Stokes和平流-色散方程，生成了高保真的速度场和浓度突破数据集，为ResNet、U-Net和混合U-Net Transformer这三种DL架构提供了严格的基准测试基础。与FEM相比，最优代理模型实现了超过5个数量级（105倍）的显著加速，并将其与Sobol全局灵敏度分析和DL辅助回归相结合。这种综合方法不仅量化了微观几何特征（如孔隙度、孔径、连通性和弯曲度）对宏观输运参数和突破曲线（btc）特征的个别影响，而且还导出了孔隙尺度微观结构与其相应宏观输运响应之间的近似定量关系。系统敏感性分析揭示了跨尺度控制机制；喉道尺寸对溶质运移和吸附行为起主导作用，微观几何特征对分散系数有较高的敏感性。时间动力学分析表明，最小孔喉直径决定了突破时间，成核密度影响初始溶质到达。通过单参数效应分析，建立了关键参数之间的定量关系，揭示了孔隙度、弯曲度、分选系数等影响溶质输运的因素之间的非线性控制关系。总的来说，这项研究推进了目前对多尺度孔隙结构如何影响溶质运移行为的机制理解，为地下环境和能源相关应用提供了预测框架。

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