Journal of Hydrology最新文献_第9页

Interannual moisture variability on the Qinghai Plateau: Trends, patterns, and implications 青海高原的年际湿度变化：趋势、模式和影响

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132074

Yanxi Yang , Junbang Wang , Xiujuan Zhang , Hui Ye , Bin Yuan , Alan E. Watson

Investigating surface dry-wet patterns on the Qinghai Plateau (QP) is crucial for water allocation, ecological sustainability, and climate variability adaptation strategies. Existing discrepancies in the QP dry-wet trends and distribution characteristics underscored the need for a more refined analysis. This study utilized the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (IM) to quantify changes in surface dryness and wetness under prevailing climatic conditions. Linear trend regression and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) were applied to study the dynamic and periodic characteristics of the QP from 1980 to 2018.

Our findings revealed a decrease from southeast to northwest in IM, with the semi-arid and sub-humid transition line aligning closely with the 400 mm isohyet. The dry-wet transition line exhibited a northwestward trend over the past four decades. Possibly influenced by monsoon circulation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual IM displayed a quasi-cycle of 3 to 5 years, manifested by a dry period (1990–2004) and a wet period (2005–2012). However, spatial differences existed, challenging the universality of the “Dry gets Drier and Wet gets Wetter (DDWW)” pattern. Precipitation (PRCP) changes could predict over 90 % of IM spatiotemporal variations. Additionally, the IM response to Average Temperature (TAVG) exhibited an inverted U-shaped curve, with a boundary (−3.8 °C) below which cooler regions became wetter and above which they became drier. The observed warming and precipitation shifts suggested that continued warming could lead to warmer and wetter climates, potentially causing ecological and environmental problems. Therefore, examining the surface moisture budget is of critical scientific and practical significance, in order to provide a decision-making basis for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

调查青海高原（QP）的地表干湿模式对于水资源分配、生态可持续性和气候变异适应战略至关重要。青海高原干湿趋势和分布特征的现有差异凸显了进行更精细分析的必要性。本研究利用索恩斯韦特水分指数（IM）来量化当前气候条件下地表干湿度的变化。我们的研究结果表明，水分指数从东南向西北递减，半干旱和亚湿润过渡线与 400 毫米等湿线紧密相连。过去 40 年间，干湿过渡线呈西北走向。可能受季风环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的影响，年平均降水量呈现出 3 至 5 年的准周期，表现为一个干旱期（1990-2004 年）和一个湿润期（2005-2012 年）。然而，空间差异的存在，对 "旱去湿来（DDWW）"模式的普遍性提出了质疑。降水量（PRCP）的变化可以预测 90% 以上的 IM 时空变化。此外，IM 对平均气温（TAVG）的响应呈现倒 U 型曲线，以-3.8 °C 为界，低于该温度的凉爽地区变湿，高于该温度的凉爽地区变干。观测到的气候变暖和降水量变化表明，持续变暖可能导致气候变暖和变湿，从而可能引发生态和环境问题。因此，研究地表水分预算具有重要的科学和现实意义，可为减缓和适应气候变化提供决策依据。

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引用次数: 0

Coupling sewers to the surface: Systematic approaches to correcting data discrepancies for 1D-2D drainage modelling 将下水道与地表耦合：纠正一维至二维排水模型数据差异的系统方法

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132239

Fabrizia Fappiano , Max Maurer , João P. Leitão

One-dimensional (1D) drainage models coupled with two-dimensional (2D) surface models have been recognised as most suitable for simulating pluvial floods in urban areas. However, discrepancies between the 1D drainage network and the 2D Digital Terrain Model (DTM) surface elevation datasets are often observed. These incompatibilities are commonly adjusted manually, impacting the transparency and reproducibility of flood modelling results. No automated and reproducible methods are currently available to ensure compatibility and consistency between a 1D drainage network and the 2D DTM elevation dataset. We present two methods for automatically correcting these discrepancies: Method 1, which corrects the discrepancies by editing the 1D drainage network, and Method 2, which corrects the discrepancies by editing the elevation of the 2D surface. Both methods ensure 1D–2D data compatibility. The two methods were evaluated through hydraulic and hydrological simulations using a synthetic case study, demonstrating strong performance for both approaches. Additionally, we propose a procedure to guide practitioners and modellers in discerning between 1D data and 2D data errors and choosing which method to use. This procedure is demonstrated for a real case study. The two presented methodologies can improve the process of creating 1D-2D urban drainage models and their reproducibility.

一维（1D）排水模型与二维（2D）地表模型相结合，被认为最适合模拟城市地区的冲积洪水。然而，一维排水网络与二维数字地形模型（DTM）地表高程数据集之间往往存在差异。这些不一致性通常由人工调整，影响了洪水模拟结果的透明度和可重复性。目前还没有自动和可重复的方法来确保一维排水网络与二维 DTM 高程数据集之间的兼容性和一致性。我们提出了两种自动纠正这些差异的方法：方法 1 通过编辑一维排水网络来纠正差异，而方法 2 则通过编辑二维表面的高程来纠正差异。这两种方法都能确保一维-二维数据的兼容性。我们利用一个合成案例研究，通过水力和水文模拟对这两种方法进行了评估，结果表明这两种方法都有很好的性能。此外，我们还提出了一个程序，指导实践者和建模者辨别一维数据和二维数据的误差，并选择使用哪种方法。我们在一个实际案例研究中演示了这一程序。所介绍的两种方法可以改进一维-二维城市排水系统模型的创建过程及其可重复性。

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引用次数: 0

Integration of multiple observations for validation of mechanisms of earthquake-triggered groundwater level Anomalies: 2016 Taiwan Meinong earthquake 整合多种观测数据，验证地震触发地下水位异常的机理：2016 年台湾美浓地震

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132230

Shih-Jung Wang , Yan-Yao Lin , Ying-Han Chen , Chia-Lin Chung , Wen-Chi Lai , Chien-Chung Ke

This study analyzes multi-depth groundwater level data and integrated observation data to validate the previously proposed mechanisms of hydrological anomalies triggered by the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake in Taiwan. The main influence area was northwest of the epicenter, which may be due to the blind fault rupture, intensity distribution, and hydrogeological properties. The step changes in groundwater level do not fit the concept of epicentral distance, static stress–strain theory, or the focal mechanism. The distribution of step changes in groundwater level have a pattern similar to that of horizontal peak ground velocity. The results imply that these changes may be driven by dynamic stress–strain, instead of static stress–strain. The minimum horizontal peak ground velocity and acceleration of the Meinong earthquake, which induced obvious step changes in groundwater level and soil liquefaction, are provided. The pressure dissipation ability of an aquifer (e.g., transmissivity) may affect the persistence of groundwater responses. Four wells located near the surface rupture area, which has cemented or partial cemented geological material, showed an obvious step decrease in the groundwater level at a deep depth and all wells showed an increase in the groundwater level at a shallow depth. These decreases and increases of the groundwater level at different depths have different mechanisms, which are discussed in this study. The integrated observations made during the Meinong earthquake show that ground motion and the hydraulic properties might be important factors in hydrological anomalies. The results of this study are an important reference for further studies on earthquake hydrology.

本研究分析了多深度地下水位数据和综合观测数据，以验证之前提出的 2016 年台湾美浓 M6.4 地震引发水文异常的机制。主要影响区域位于震中西北部，这可能与盲断层破裂、烈度分布和水文地质特性有关。地下水位的阶跃变化不符合震中距、静态应力应变理论或焦点机制的概念。地下水位阶跃变化的分布模式与水平峰值地表速度的分布模式相似。结果表明，这些变化可能是由动态应力应变而不是静态应力应变引起的。提供了诱发地下水位明显阶跃变化和土壤液化的美浓地震最小水平峰值地表速度和加速度。含水层的压力消散能力（如透水性）可能会影响地下水响应的持续性。位于地表破裂区附近的四口水井，其地质材料为胶结或部分胶结，地下水位在深层呈明显的阶梯式下降，所有水井的地下水位在浅层呈上升趋势。不同深度地下水位的下降和上升具有不同的机理，本研究对此进行了讨论。美浓地震期间的综合观测结果表明，地面运动和水力特性可能是造成水文异常的重要因素。本研究的结果对进一步研究地震水文具有重要的参考价值。

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引用次数: 0

Investigating climatic drivers of snow phenology by considering key-substage heterogeneity 通过考虑关键子阶段的异质性来研究雪候的气候驱动因素

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132215

Xinqi Ma , Kai Lin , Xueyan Sun , Lun Luo , Ning Ma , Hang Zha , Longhui Zhang , Shizhen Tang , Zhiguang Tang , Hongbo Zhang

Investigating the main climatic drivers responsible for changes in snow cover phenology (SCP) is crucial for making scientific countermeasures to ensure water resources security in global mountainous regions. However, most studies have explored drivers of SCP changes using a fixed substage division scheme and correlation analysis (referred to as the traditional method), potentially limiting reliability and accuracy in mountainous areas with complex terrain and climate. Here, a novel method is developed to efficiently identify main climatic drivers of SCP changes. This method employs a flexible scheme to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant sub-period (the sub-period with the major climatic effect) in combination with regression analysis. Using the arid region of China as a case study, the new method was applied to three SCP parameters including snow cover days, snow start date, and snow end date, based on a seamless snow cover dataset from 2002 to 2019. The method’s effectiveness was evaluated by comparing it with the traditional method. The results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in the dominant sub-period(s), closely associated with local temperature and elevation. The traditional method failed to accurately identify the main drivers of SCP changes, as evidenced by sub-region and elevation zone analyses showing adjusted coefficient of determination (R²) of < 0.5 in most cases. This inadequacy is attributed to its fixed and inappropriate scheme of substage division. In contrast, the new method, with its flexible scheme, achieved much higher adjusted R² values (mostly > 0.5) and exhibited better performances in predicting SCP changes. Thanks to the new method, climatic causes of SCP changes were successfully identified in 12 hotspots (regions with significant SCP changes), all with adjusted R² > 0.5. The climatic causes were found to vary significantly across different hotspot regions and SCP parameters. The proposed method holds significant potential to enhance the reliability of analyses concerning main climatic drivers of SCP changes in mountainous regions globally.

调查导致雪盖物候变化的主要气候驱动因素对于制定科学对策以确保全球山区的水资源安全至关重要。然而，大多数研究都是采用固定的子阶段划分方案和相关性分析（被称为传统方法）来探索 SCP 变化的驱动因素，这可能会限制复杂地形和气候的山区的可靠性和准确性。在此，我们开发了一种新方法来有效识别 SCP 变化的主要气候驱动因素。该方法采用了一种灵活的方案，结合回归分析来考虑主导子期（具有主要气候效应的子期）的空间异质性。以中国干旱地区为例，基于 2002 年至 2019 年的无缝积雪数据集，将新方法应用于三个 SCP 参数，包括积雪覆盖天数、积雪开始日期和积雪结束日期。通过与传统方法进行比较，评估了该方法的有效性。结果表明，主要子期存在明显的空间异质性，与当地气温和海拔密切相关。传统方法未能准确识别 SCP 变化的主要驱动因素，子区域和高程区分析表明，在大多数情况下，调整后的决定系数 (R2) 为 0.5。这种不足归因于其固定和不恰当的子阶段划分方案。相比之下，采用灵活方案的新方法获得了更高的调整 R2 值（大多为 >0.5），在预测 SCP 变化方面表现更佳。由于采用了新方法，在 12 个热点地区（SCP 变化显著的地区）成功地确定了 SCP 变化的气候成因，所有这些地区的调整 R2 都大于 0.5。在不同的热点区域和 SCP 参数中，气候成因存在显著差异。所提出的方法在提高全球山区 SCP 变化的主要气候驱动因素分析的可靠性方面具有巨大潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding the implications of climate change for Australia’s surface water resources: Challenges and future directions 了解气候变化对澳大利亚地表水资源的影响：挑战与未来方向

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132221

Conrad Wasko , Clare Stephens , Tim J. Peterson , Rory Nathan , Acacia Pepler , Suresh Hettiarachchi , Elisabeth Vogel , Fiona Johnson , Seth Westra

Climate change is altering Australia’s streamflow and water resources due to a complex interplay of shifts in temperature, rainfall, evaporation, vegetation dynamics, soil moisture, and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Meanwhile increases in human activity and urbanisation continue to alter the landscape, further affecting streamflow and flood volumes. Understanding the nature of these recent changes is critical for evaluating future risks and ensuring planning decisions are sustainable. Positively, our knowledge of changes to Australia’s hydrologic regimes has greatly advanced in the last decade. Here we review our current understanding of historical hydrologic changes, focusing first on the drivers of change and then observed changes in streamflow and flooding, before turning our attention to the role that historical observations can play in anticipating future climate change impacts. We conclude with recommendations to help better understand and plan for an unknown future.

Increases in extreme rainfalls have increased the risk of large flood events. However, declines in mean rainfall across large parts of the continent, increases in diversions, and increasing evaporate demand have led to an overall drying. Significant advances in our understanding have been made through analysing trends in the observational record and investigating the associated drivers. While these learnings may not reliably inform the potential effects of future change, they can still inform process understanding ultimately helping accurately model and project future impacts. Projecting climate change impacts on water resources in Australia remains challenging, and progress will require improved instrumentation to observe and understand catchment responses together with methods and management techniques that incorporate this additional uncertainty. We argue it is through process-informed models together with multi-scale observational data that this gap can be breached.

由于气温、降雨、蒸发、植被动态、土壤湿度和降雨-径流分区的复杂变化，气候变化正在改变澳大利亚的溪流和水资源。与此同时，人类活动的增加和城市化继续改变着地貌，进一步影响着溪流和洪水量。了解这些近期变化的性质对于评估未来风险和确保规划决策的可持续性至关重要。积极的一面是，我们对澳大利亚水文系统变化的了解在过去十年中取得了巨大进步。在此，我们将回顾我们目前对历史水文变化的理解，首先关注变化的驱动因素，然后是观测到的溪流和洪水变化，最后关注历史观测在预测未来气候变化影响方面可以发挥的作用。最后，我们提出了一些建议，以帮助更好地理解和规划未知的未来。然而，非洲大陆大部分地区平均降雨量的减少、分流的增加以及蒸发需求的增加导致了整体干旱。通过分析观测记录中的趋势和调查相关的驱动因素，我们的认识取得了重大进展。虽然这些知识可能无法可靠地预测未来变化的潜在影响，但它们仍然可以为我们的认识过程提供信息，最终帮助我们准确地模拟和预测未来的影响。预测气候变化对澳大利亚水资源的影响仍然具有挑战性，要想取得进展，就必须改进仪器设备，以观察和了解集水区的反应，同时采用考虑到这种额外不确定性的方法和管理技术。我们认为，只有通过基于过程的模型和多尺度观测数据才能弥补这一差距。

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引用次数: 0

Water depth alters the fate of estrone across the sediment–water interface in a typical inland lake 水深改变了典型内陆湖沉积物-水界面上雌酮的去向

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132184

Linzhu Du , Shuhang Wang , Xia Jiang , Zhihao Wu , Arne Bratkic , Wei Guo

Water depth variation alters lake sediment environments, affecting the exchange of oxygen, trace elements, and nutrients at the sediment–water interface (SWI). However, there is still limited information on the in-situ fate of refractory emerging pollutants such as estrogenic compounds (ECs) at the SWI of different water depths in lakes. In this study, we integrated active sampling and diffusive gradients in thin film (DGT) technology to in-situ investigate the distribution, diffusion, and microbial responses of estrone (E1) at the SWI from the shallow-water zone (SZ), transition-water zone (TZ), and deep-water zone (DZ) in a typical inland lake of northern China. The surface sediment of the DZ accumulated most E1 (479.57 ± 194.90 ng/kg). In the vertical profile of the sediments, for SZ and TZ, E1 concentration in the sediment, porewater, and DGT fluctuated within a certain concentration range with increasing sediment depth. For the DZ, it exhibited a fluctuating and increasing trend with increasing depth. Dynamic migration analysis of E1 indicated partial resupply in each zone, and the resupply parameter R was 0.102 to 0.416 in the SZ, 0.111 to 0.384 in the TZ, and 0.084 to 0.374 in the DZ, respectively. The resupply capacity in the upper sediment layers (−1 to −4 cm) was higher for the TZ and DZ, whereas the SZ showed higher capacity in the lower layers (−5 to −9 cm). Based on the microbial sequencing results, Sulfuricurvum (typically present in microaerophilic and anoxic conditions) was predominant in the DZ (17.99 ± 15.4 %). Achromobacter (typical E1-degrading genus distributed in oxic environments) was more abundant in the SZ, which led to a higher E1 degradation potential in this zone. The results of this study shed light on the fate of E1 in the SWI of lakes at different water depths, facilitating a more precise control of estrogenic pollution in lake sediments.

水深变化会改变湖泊沉积物环境，影响沉积物-水界面（SWI）的氧气、微量元素和营养物质交换。然而，关于雌激素化合物（ECs）等难降解新污染物在湖泊不同水深的水-沉积物界面（SWI）上的原位归宿的信息仍然有限。本研究结合主动采样和薄膜扩散梯度（DGT）技术，对中国北方典型内陆湖泊浅水区（SZ）、过渡水区（TZ）和深水区（DZ）的雌酮（E1）在SWI的分布、扩散和微生物反应进行了原位研究。DZ 表层沉积物中 E1 的累积量最大（479.57 ± 194.90 ng/kg）。在沉积物的垂直剖面上，对于 SZ 和 TZ，随着沉积物深度的增加，沉积物、孔隙水和 DGT 中的 E1 浓度在一定的浓度范围内波动。在 DZ 中，随着沉积深度的增加，E1 浓度呈波动上升趋势。E1的动态迁移分析表明，各区均有部分补给，补给参数R在SZ区分别为0.102～0.416，TZ区为0.111～0.384，DZ区为0.084～0.374。TZ 和 DZ 在沉积物上层（-1 至 -4 厘米）的补给能力较高，而 SZ 在沉积物下层（-5 至 -9 厘米）的补给能力较高。根据微生物测序结果，DZ 中主要是硫化杆菌（通常出现在微嗜水和缺氧条件下）（17.99 ± 15.4 %）。而 Achromobacter（典型的 E1 降解菌属，分布于缺氧环境中）在 SZ 中的数量较多，因此该区的 E1 降解潜力较高。本研究结果揭示了不同水深湖泊西南印度洋中 E1 的去向，有助于更精确地控制湖泊沉积物中的雌激素污染。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of water distribution on methane-carbon dioxide-water transportation in shale nanopores with Knudsen number correction 水分布对页岩纳米孔隙中甲烷-二氧化碳-水迁移的影响与努森数校正

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132186

Hongji Liu, Chaohua Guo, Shu Jiang, Kai Zhang

The flow mechanism of a CO₂-CH₄-H₂O system plays a key role in methane recovery and CO₂ sequestration. In this paper, Knudsen number correction and water phase distribution are taken into account to establish a new transport model for the CO₂-CH₄-H₂O flow in shale nanopores. The model is validated using data from three flow experiments, namely, methane-carbon dioxide flow experiments under dry conditions, methane with irreducible water flow characterization experiments in the nanofluidic chip, and air–water two-phase flow experiments in quartz sand. The effect of irreducible water on gas flow and methane-carbon dioxide-water relative permeability is discussed. The results in our paper show that: (1) The existence of irreducible water increases the difference caused by Knudsen number correction. (2) The existence of irreducible water has a negative effect on the gas flow in most cases. The reduction of methane and carbon dioxide permeability with irreducible water can be up to 28.53% and 21.88%, respectively. (3) The change of permeability curve is affected by gas composition fraction, water saturation, and irreducible water coverage. The study provides theoretical guidance for carbon dioxide enhancing shale gas recovery under the actual water saturation condition.

CO2-CH4-H2O 系统的流动机制在甲烷回收和二氧化碳封存中起着关键作用。本文考虑了努森数修正和水相分布，建立了页岩纳米孔中 CO2-CH4-H2O 流动的新传输模型。该模型利用三个流动实验的数据进行了验证，即干燥条件下的甲烷-二氧化碳流动实验、纳米流体芯片中甲烷与不可还原水的流动表征实验以及石英砂中的空气-水两相流动实验。讨论了不可还原水对气体流动和甲烷-二氧化碳-水相对渗透性的影响。论文结果表明(1) 不可还原水的存在增加了由努森数修正引起的差异。(2) 在大多数情况下，不可还原水的存在会对气体流动产生负面影响。不可还原水对甲烷和二氧化碳渗透率的影响可分别达到 28.53% 和 21.88%。(3）渗透率曲线的变化受气体成分分数、水饱和度和不可还原水覆盖率的影响。该研究为实际含水饱和度条件下二氧化碳提高页岩气采收率提供了理论指导。

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引用次数: 0

On the influence of matrix flow in the hydraulic permeability of rough-walled fractures 论基质流对粗糙壁裂缝水力渗透性的影响

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132192

Carlos A.S. Ferreira, Hamidreza M. Nick

Fractured porous media models may account for the influence of matrix flow in fracture permeability estimates through the slip boundary condition effect, i.e. permeable walls allow fluid to flow along them without viscous resistance. However, matrix flow may also create fluid pathways that unlock further fracture flow capacity, thus increasing its overall apparent permeability. We investigate this effect through numerical experiments by simulating fluid flow in a single fracture-matrix system with varying matrix permeability and calculating the apparent fracture permeability. We observe a consistent increase in fracture permeability with matrix permeability, which is yet underestimated by analytical models that factor in slip boundary conditions. Our study highlights the critical role of the surrounding porous matrix in accurately determining fracture permeability to prevent underestimations of the flow capacity of fractured porous media.

断裂多孔介质模型可以通过滑移边界条件效应，在断裂渗透率估算中考虑基质流动的影响，即渗透壁允许流体沿其流动而不产生粘性阻力。然而，基质流也可能创造出流体通道，进一步释放裂缝的流动能力，从而增加其总体表观渗透率。我们通过数值实验来研究这种效应，模拟流体在基质渗透率不同的单一断裂-基质系统中的流动，并计算表观断裂渗透率。我们观察到断裂渗透率随基质渗透率的增加而持续增加，而将滑移边界条件考虑在内的分析模型却低估了这一点。我们的研究强调了周围多孔基质在准确确定断裂渗透率以防止低估断裂多孔介质流动能力方面的关键作用。

引用次数: 0

Lake responses and mechanisms to El Niño on the Tibetan Plateau using deep learning-based semantic segmentation 利用基于深度学习的语义分割技术研究青藏高原湖泊对厄尔尼诺现象的响应及其机制

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132191

Hui Lin , Zhongbo Yu , Xuegao Chen , Huanghe Gu , Qin Ju , Tongqing Shen , Jingcai Wang

Numerous lakes across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) serve as crucial indicators of climate change and are significantly influenced by El Niño events. Previous studies of lake response to El Niño events have focused on a limited number of lakes. Despite advances in remote sensing technology, there have been few comprehensive and large-scale studies using deep learning, and there are still gaps in understanding the response mechanisms on a larger scale. This study leverages advanced deep-learning techniques to map lake responses, offering unprecedented insights into the large-scale hydrological impacts of El Niño. Our results show that lakes shrink significantly during El Niño events on the TP. Lakes located in the central and southern parts of the TP and small lakes with areas ranging from 1 to 50 km² (over 60 % of them) exhibited strong responses. The range of lake response to El Niño events varies with their intensity, with stronger El Niño events causing an expansion of the response range along the latitudinal direction. We propose four possible mechanisms for lake response patterns to El Niño from the perspective of lake water sources. Strong shrinkage is primarily caused by decreased precipitation and increased evaporation, with a possible contribution from reduced meltwater. Strong expansion is due to increased precipitation, more glacier and frozen soil meltwater, and reduced evaporation. For slight shrinkage and expansion patterns, the balance of meltwater may offset or even counteract the El Niño signal. The study’s results could improve predictions of extreme weather events like droughts and floods in the Third Pole region, enhance water resource management and responsiveness, and offer valuable insights for ecological monitoring and early warning systems development.

青藏高原（TP）的众多湖泊是气候变化的重要指标，受厄尔尼诺现象的影响很大。以往关于湖泊对厄尔尼诺现象反应的研究主要集中在数量有限的湖泊上。尽管遥感技术不断进步，但很少有利用深度学习技术进行全面、大规模的研究，在理解更大规模的响应机制方面仍存在差距。本研究利用先进的深度学习技术绘制湖泊响应图，为了解厄尔尼诺现象的大规模水文影响提供了前所未有的见解。我们的研究结果表明，在厄尔尼诺现象期间，TP 上的湖泊会明显缩小。位于大洋洲中部和南部的湖泊以及面积在 1 到 50 平方公里之间的小型湖泊（占 60% 以上）表现出强烈的响应。湖泊对厄尔尼诺现象的响应范围随其强度而变化，较强的厄尔尼诺现象会导致响应范围沿纬度方向扩大。我们从湖泊水源的角度提出了湖泊对厄尔尼诺反应模式的四种可能机制。强烈收缩主要是由降水减少和蒸发增加造成的，融水减少也可能有一定影响。强扩张则是由于降水增加、冰川和冻土融水增加以及蒸发减少。对于轻微的收缩和扩张模式，融水的平衡可能会抵消甚至抵消厄尔尼诺信号。这项研究的结果可以改善对第三极地区干旱和洪水等极端天气事件的预测，加强水资源管理和应对能力，并为生态监测和预警系统的开发提供有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Using a multiphysics coupling-oriented flood modelling approach to assess urban flooding under various regulation scenarios combined with rainstorms and tidal effects 利用面向多物理场耦合的洪水模拟方法，评估在暴雨和潮汐效应相结合的各种调控情景下的城市洪水问题

IF 5.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132189

Yongshuai Liang, Weihong Liao, Zhao Zhang, Haichen Li, Hao Wang

Climate change and rapid urbanisation have intensified urban flooding. Flood models constructed using hydrological and hydrodynamic approaches are crucial tools for simulating and regulating urban flooding processes. Urban flooding arises from the interplay of various physical processes in urban water systems, influenced by heterogeneous urban surfaces, underground structures, and intricate river networks influencing surface flow, which must be considered in flood models. For coastal cities with intricate drainage systems, the disasters of combined rainstorms and tidal flooding can be mitigated through river scheduling and real-time control of hydraulic structures. However, a lack of research on the effectiveness of flood regulations limits the application of flood models. This study proposes a flood modelling approach oriented towards the coupling of multiphysics processes, achieving a comprehensive simulation and regulation of the flood process. A surface flood control model was created by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic processes using the Storm Water Management Model and the orthogonal storage cell model, enabled by data exchange synchronisation technology. Subsequently, the model’s accuracy was validated using observed rainstorm events, identifying drainage system overflows and land surface inundation. Finally, the developed model was applied to analyse the enhancing effect of tides on rainstorm-induced flooding and the impact of various control scenarios. This study offers theoretical direction for large-scale urban flood modelling and model development, offering significant references for revisiting urban planning and formulating flood prevention strategies under the joint impact of rainstorms and tides.

气候变化和快速城市化加剧了城市洪涝灾害。利用水文和水动力方法构建的洪水模型是模拟和调节城市洪水过程的重要工具。城市洪水产生于城市水系统中各种物理过程的相互作用，受到异质城市表面、地下结构和影响地表流的复杂河网的影响，洪水模型必须考虑这些因素。对于排水系统错综复杂的沿海城市，可以通过河道调度和水力结构的实时控制来减轻暴雨和潮汐洪水的综合灾害。然而，由于缺乏对洪水调控有效性的研究，限制了洪水模型的应用。本研究提出了一种面向多物理过程耦合的洪水建模方法，实现了对洪水过程的全面模拟和调控。通过数据交换同步技术，利用暴雨管理模型和正交存储单元模型将水文和水动力过程耦合起来，创建了地表防洪模型。随后，利用观测到的暴雨事件验证了模型的准确性，确定了排水系统溢流和地表淹没情况。最后，应用所开发的模型分析了潮汐对暴雨引发的洪水的增强作用以及各种控制方案的影响。该研究为大规模城市洪水建模和模型开发提供了理论方向，为在暴雨和潮汐共同影响下重新审视城市规划和制定防洪策略提供了重要参考。

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