Aspects of the Coronet Warrior military exercise are used as the best examples of a comparison of expected line-item demands with actual ones in a wartime environment. The results of that exercise as they pertained to expected versus actual line item demands are used to compare the straight failure rate-based prioritization method of fault resolution to an algorithmic methodology based on historic data. An example is presented in which the workings of a representative historical method of fault resolution are compared to the more typical prioritization replacement method. The results indicate that the straight failure rate prioritization method is inferior to the historically based method in all cases except one. The exception is when the difference in the failure rates of the lowest replaceable units (LRUs) in the ambiguity group is small and the actual hardware corresponds directly to the expected failure rate based on equipment predictions. The Coronet Warrior experience indicates that this is unlikely to occur.<>
{"title":"Coronet Warrior: a message on ambiguity resolution","authors":"M. Steinmetz","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67982","url":null,"abstract":"Aspects of the Coronet Warrior military exercise are used as the best examples of a comparison of expected line-item demands with actual ones in a wartime environment. The results of that exercise as they pertained to expected versus actual line item demands are used to compare the straight failure rate-based prioritization method of fault resolution to an algorithmic methodology based on historic data. An example is presented in which the workings of a representative historical method of fault resolution are compared to the more typical prioritization replacement method. The results indicate that the straight failure rate prioritization method is inferior to the historically based method in all cases except one. The exception is when the difference in the failure rates of the lowest replaceable units (LRUs) in the ambiguity group is small and the actual hardware corresponds directly to the expected failure rate based on equipment predictions. The Coronet Warrior experience indicates that this is unlikely to occur.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133402787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Reliability block diagram (RBD) modeling has been demonstrated as a productive method for performing reliability studies. Analysis techniques common to fault-tree analysis can extend the usefulness of RBD models. Methods for handling system interdependencies, redundancies, and degraded operating states are presented. Additional interpretive benefits afforded by these methods are discussed. The integration of fault-tree analysis techniques with RBD modeling was initially applied during a project studying the reliability of a fossil fuel plant. During the course of this project, a software system known as the RBD analysis (RBDA) workstation was designed and implemented. RBDA is a microcomputer-based program used to develop and analyze complex multisystem models. It is currently being used in the aerospace, chemical, and utility industries.<>
{"title":"A new approach to the analysis of reliability block diagrams","authors":"W.S. Gough, J. Riley, J. Koren","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.68001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.68001","url":null,"abstract":"Reliability block diagram (RBD) modeling has been demonstrated as a productive method for performing reliability studies. Analysis techniques common to fault-tree analysis can extend the usefulness of RBD models. Methods for handling system interdependencies, redundancies, and degraded operating states are presented. Additional interpretive benefits afforded by these methods are discussed. The integration of fault-tree analysis techniques with RBD modeling was initially applied during a project studying the reliability of a fossil fuel plant. During the course of this project, a software system known as the RBD analysis (RBDA) workstation was designed and implemented. RBDA is a microcomputer-based program used to develop and analyze complex multisystem models. It is currently being used in the aerospace, chemical, and utility industries.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128494626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simple expressions are developed for upper and lower bounds on the Markov state probabilities obtained from inspection of the terms in the Markov probability matrix. These bounds can be used for quick paper-and-pencil and calculator estimates. The bounds are also combined with the merging and decomposition methods in several examples of reliability and maintainability assessment. Use of these bounds can aid the well-known simplification technique of truncation (deleting the low probability states) by quickly obtaining upper bounds on the state probabilities, which ensures that only low-probability states are truncated.<>
{"title":"Bounding and approximating Markov models","authors":"A. Laemmel, M. Shooman","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67966","url":null,"abstract":"Simple expressions are developed for upper and lower bounds on the Markov state probabilities obtained from inspection of the terms in the Markov probability matrix. These bounds can be used for quick paper-and-pencil and calculator estimates. The bounds are also combined with the merging and decomposition methods in several examples of reliability and maintainability assessment. Use of these bounds can aid the well-known simplification technique of truncation (deleting the low probability states) by quickly obtaining upper bounds on the state probabilities, which ensures that only low-probability states are truncated.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"515 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123073631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Addressed are fundamental issues related to the reliability of three key optoelectronic devices for long-wavelength fiberoptic communications: InGaAsP LEDs, lasers, and PIN detectors. Degradation modes associated with metallization, crystal growth, device structure, and passivation materials are discussed. It is shown that with proper burn-in and screening, highly reliable devices can be manufactured.<>
{"title":"Reliability of optoelectronic devices for fiber optic communications","authors":"L. Chiu, K. Li, D. Pendse, H.C. Lee, C. Fern","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67954","url":null,"abstract":"Addressed are fundamental issues related to the reliability of three key optoelectronic devices for long-wavelength fiberoptic communications: InGaAsP LEDs, lasers, and PIN detectors. Degradation modes associated with metallization, crystal growth, device structure, and passivation materials are discussed. It is shown that with proper burn-in and screening, highly reliable devices can be manufactured.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120918282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A summary is presented of work done at IBM from the 1960s to the present in which vibration and shock testing was used to help increase product reliability. Development of test levels and techniques, improvements achieved, integration of testing into the design cycle, and acceptance by management are discussed. Assuring that the computer operational vibration environment in the customer's installations will not induce failures over the life of IBM equipment and using vibration and shock tests to reduce shipping/handling-induced damage to IBM products are addressed.<>
{"title":"Vibration and shock testing for computers","authors":"R. A. Frey, G.J. Ratchford, B.E. Wendling","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67975","url":null,"abstract":"A summary is presented of work done at IBM from the 1960s to the present in which vibration and shock testing was used to help increase product reliability. Development of test levels and techniques, improvements achieved, integration of testing into the design cycle, and acceptance by management are discussed. Assuring that the computer operational vibration environment in the customer's installations will not induce failures over the life of IBM equipment and using vibration and shock tests to reduce shipping/handling-induced damage to IBM products are addressed.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"152 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116068463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Problems with conventional reliability demonstration methods are addressed, and the conventional reliability-demonstration tests are compared with the environmental stress screening (ESS) method. The concept of the roller-coaster curve is reviewed. The aging process for electronics and the relative benefits of ESS and the roller-coaster curve are explored. Recommendations on implementing ESS for reliability demonstration and reliability assurance are provided.<>
{"title":"Demonstrating reliability and reliability growth with environmental stress screening data","authors":"K. L. Wong","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67929","url":null,"abstract":"Problems with conventional reliability demonstration methods are addressed, and the conventional reliability-demonstration tests are compared with the environmental stress screening (ESS) method. The concept of the roller-coaster curve is reviewed. The aging process for electronics and the relative benefits of ESS and the roller-coaster curve are explored. Recommendations on implementing ESS for reliability demonstration and reliability assurance are provided.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121676307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Westinghouse ILSD is nearing completion of an investigation sponsored by the Rome Air Development Center to determine the operational feasibility of detecting incipient electronic system failures. Incipient-failure detection is called marginal checking. Laboratory experiments and accelerated life testing of selected subsystems/components were performed to identify and quantify changes in critical parameters that indicate incipient failure. Practical aspects of marginal checking concerning on-equipment and off-equipment implementation, as well as cost effectiveness, were considered. Results of this investigation indicate that operational detection of incipient failures appears to be feasible for certain classes of critical subsystems and components.<>
{"title":"Mission reliability improvement by marginal checking","authors":"R.A. Boenning","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67930","url":null,"abstract":"Westinghouse ILSD is nearing completion of an investigation sponsored by the Rome Air Development Center to determine the operational feasibility of detecting incipient electronic system failures. Incipient-failure detection is called marginal checking. Laboratory experiments and accelerated life testing of selected subsystems/components were performed to identify and quantify changes in critical parameters that indicate incipient failure. Practical aspects of marginal checking concerning on-equipment and off-equipment implementation, as well as cost effectiveness, were considered. Results of this investigation indicate that operational detection of incipient failures appears to be feasible for certain classes of critical subsystems and components.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125111720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A method of reliability assessment is suggested. It is Bayesian in that the uncertainty about the unreliability is expressed by means of a prior distribution with a specified upper limit. The method is a hierarchical Bayesian one in that the uncertainty about the limit of prior distribution is also expressed by means of a prior distribution. The data from the development program are incorporated with the prior on the unreliability and with the prior on the upper limit of the prior to obtain a new prior on unreliability. The production data are then used to obtain a revised estimate of the unreliability as well as a modified value for the limit of the prior distribution. This same concept will be carried through when the field data are obtained. The result is a final Bayesian reliability assessment that is iterative in nature and sequentially incorporates data from each of the three stages common to a component development, production, and surveillance program.<>
{"title":"An iterative Bayes procedure for reliability assessment","authors":"R. Prairie, W. Zimmer","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67922","url":null,"abstract":"A method of reliability assessment is suggested. It is Bayesian in that the uncertainty about the unreliability is expressed by means of a prior distribution with a specified upper limit. The method is a hierarchical Bayesian one in that the uncertainty about the limit of prior distribution is also expressed by means of a prior distribution. The data from the development program are incorporated with the prior on the unreliability and with the prior on the upper limit of the prior to obtain a new prior on unreliability. The production data are then used to obtain a revised estimate of the unreliability as well as a modified value for the limit of the prior distribution. This same concept will be carried through when the field data are obtained. The result is a final Bayesian reliability assessment that is iterative in nature and sequentially incorporates data from each of the three stages common to a component development, production, and surveillance program.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133483363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Weibull-Poisson process (WPP) for representing the reliability of complex repairable systems is discussed. The emphasis is on estimation and other statistical methods for this model when data have been generated by multiple systems. Examples and procedures specifically illustrating these methods are given for several real-world situations. In addition to maximum likelihood estimation methods, goodness-of-fit tests and confidence interval procedures are discussed and illustrated by numerical examples. It is noted that in the case of one system the model reduces to a model for reliability growth. Confidence intervals for the WPP shape parameter and growth rate are given.<>
{"title":"Evaluating the reliability of repairable systems","authors":"L. H. Crow","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67969","url":null,"abstract":"The Weibull-Poisson process (WPP) for representing the reliability of complex repairable systems is discussed. The emphasis is on estimation and other statistical methods for this model when data have been generated by multiple systems. Examples and procedures specifically illustrating these methods are given for several real-world situations. In addition to maximum likelihood estimation methods, goodness-of-fit tests and confidence interval procedures are discussed and illustrated by numerical examples. It is noted that in the case of one system the model reduces to a model for reliability growth. Confidence intervals for the WPP shape parameter and growth rate are given.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133557179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Design for maintainability in expert systems is examined. Related issues discussed include the software engineering process, the differences between expert systems and conventional software that affect maintainability, and the use of expert system shells and development tools. Specific points to consider when performing a maintainability analysis of expert system code include using conventional software engineering guidelines tailored for expert systems and using basic expert system features as a foundation for a maintainable product.<>
{"title":"Expert systems maintainability","authors":"C. Chee, M. A. Power","doi":"10.1109/ARMS.1990.67994","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ARMS.1990.67994","url":null,"abstract":"Design for maintainability in expert systems is examined. Related issues discussed include the software engineering process, the differences between expert systems and conventional software that affect maintainability, and the use of expert system shells and development tools. Specific points to consider when performing a maintainability analysis of expert system code include using conventional software engineering guidelines tailored for expert systems and using basic expert system features as a foundation for a maintainable product.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":383597,"journal":{"name":"Annual Proceedings on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium","volume":"235 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131990921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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