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Soldiers on the Cultural Front: Developments in the Early History of North Korea Literature and Literary Policy 文化战线上的士兵:朝鲜早期文学史和文学政策的发展
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2011-04-01 DOI: 10.5860/choice.48-3125
A. David-West
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引用次数: 1
The Future of the Two Koreas: How to Build Peace on the Korean Peninsula 朝韩的未来:如何在朝鲜半岛建立和平
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.7.1.49
Donglin Han
IntroductionThe future of the two Koreas has a great influence on the security landscape of the Northeast Asian region. It is clear that the two Korean regimes are facing both internal and external challenges and opportunities. Moreover, regional powers, such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia, are concerned with changing inter- Korean relations especially with regard to the prospect for future security concerns of Northeast Asia in general, and the Korean Peninsula in particular. To explore the future of the Korean Peninsula, it is important to explore and understand the domestic political factors that could shape future policy direction within each Korean government.1This article argues that internal conditions in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime are the most important factor in determining future outcomes on the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, it suggests that the North's nuclear weapons program, its ongoing political transition process, and the policies of regional powers such as the U.S. are critical uncertainties that would have a great impact on the changing dynamics in the security environment of the Korean Peninsula. Based on a thorough exploration of these critical uncertainties, it concludes that the policy-makers of the South Korean government and the regional powers should take the possible collapse of North Korea scenario seriously, while making every effort to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula by creating a stable North Korea.Two Scenarios: Divorce Plus Reconciliation and the End of Absolute TyrannyRegarding the future of the two Koreas, there is one pessimistic view that only the collapse of the Kim family regime could lead to "genuine" denuclearization and subsequent peace-building on the Korean Peninsula.2 From this perspective, without the demise of the Kim regime, any efforts for peace and reconciliation in the security environment of the Korean Peninsula would be fruitless. On the other hand, scholars such as David Kang argue that economic cooperation between the North and the South plus the U.S. engagement policy toward the North could lead to political reconciliation and national reunification.3 Specifically, proponents of this view tend to think of the prospect for the North's economic reform and denuclearization as promising, based on their belief in the power of capitalist ideas flowing into North Korean society.It should be noted that the two scenarios-Divorce Plus Reconciliation and End of Absolute Tyranny4-are based on distinct perspectives: The former is based on an optimistic liberal view, while the latter is dependent upon a pessimistic realist view.Divorce Plus Reconciliation and Liberal OptimismSupported by an optimistic liberal prospect for the future of the two Korean states, Divorce Plus Reconciliation tries to provide a clear solution for the Korean question-one that involves multilateralism, economic cooperation, and political reconciliation. First, the Divorce Plu
朝韩两国的未来对东北亚地区的安全格局有很大的影响。显然,两国政权同时面临着内外的挑战和机遇。此外,地区大国,如美国、中国、日本和俄罗斯,都在关注朝韩关系的变化,尤其是东北亚未来的安全问题,特别是朝鲜半岛的前景。为了探索朝鲜半岛的未来,重要的是探索和理解可能影响韩国政府未来政策方向的国内政治因素。本文认为,朝鲜民主主义人民共和国(DPRK)政权的内部条件是决定朝鲜半岛未来结果的最重要因素。具体来说,就是北韩的核问题、正在进行的政治过渡进程、美国等地区大国的政策等,都是对韩半岛安保环境变化产生重大影响的重大不确定因素。在对这些关键的不确定性进行深入探讨的基础上,报告得出结论认为,韩国政府和地区大国的决策者应该认真对待朝鲜可能崩溃的情况,同时尽一切努力通过建立一个稳定的朝鲜来促进朝鲜半岛的和平。关于朝韩两国的未来,有一种悲观的观点认为,只有金氏家族政权的崩溃才能带来“真正的”无核化和随后的朝鲜半岛和平建设。从这个角度来看,没有金氏政权的灭亡,朝鲜半岛安全环境中的任何和平与和解的努力都将是徒劳的。相反,大卫•康等学者主张,南北经济合作加上美国的对北包容政策,可以实现政治和解和国家统一具体来说,这种观点的支持者倾向于认为朝鲜经济改革和无核化的前景是有希望的,因为他们相信流入朝鲜社会的资本主义思想的力量。值得注意的是,这两个场景——离婚+和解和绝对专制的终结——是基于不同的观点:前者基于乐观的自由主义观点,而后者则依赖于悲观的现实主义观点。离婚+和解与自由的乐观主义在对韩朝两国未来的乐观的自由主义前景的支持下,离婚+和解试图为朝鲜问题提供一个明确的解决方案——一个涉及多边主义、经济合作和政治和解的解决方案。首先,“离婚+和解”方案与韩半岛“永久和平体制”讨论密切相关。朝鲜民主主义人民共和国和美国之间的和平条约将是在朝鲜半岛建立和平制度的先决条件。韩半岛和平体制的话语可以与东北亚地区多边体制框架的必要性联系在一起,多边和平与安全机制可以以和平解决北韩核危机为基础。更重要的是,为了在朝鲜半岛建立一个和平体制,朝韩双方的“真实”意图是至关重要的,因为从历史上看,半岛上的这两个政权都倾向于使用和平体制或国家统一的话语来支持自己的政权利益总之,如果没有韩半岛无核化等南北双方的真正努力,任何和平体制框架的讨论都是空洞的承诺。…
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引用次数: 1
Is North Korea Putting All of the Eggs in One Basket 朝鲜是否把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.7.1.21
Hyung-min Joo
On May 12, 2008, the 11th International Trade Fair opened at the Three- Revolution Building in Pyongyang.1 During the months leading to the trade fair, much ado was made as North Koreans cleaned streets, decorated buildings, and prepared for the much expected trade fair. According to the North Korean government, more than 220 companies would participate in the fair, displaying various products, such as "electronic appliances, vehicles, petrochemical goods, medicines, daily necessities, foodstuffs, etc." (Korean Central News Agency [KCNA],May 5, 2008). It was supposed to be a major international fair with all sorts of consumer products from all around the world. When the fair finally opened with great fanfare, however, outside observers as well as North Korean citizens were perplexed to witness thatmore than 90 percent of products were Chinese products. As one reporter pointed out, the so-called international fair was practically a Chinese expo (Joongang Ilbo, May 15, 2008).The incident is symbolic in that Beijing has emerged as the outlet of North Korea to the outside world. In 2000, China constituted 25 percent of the North Korean trade. By 2009, the figure rose to 78.5 percent. As a result, there is little difference between a Chinese expo and an "international fair" fromthe viewpoint of Pyongyang. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the increasing North Korean dependence on Beijing and provide some policies to deal with it. In the first section, the divergence between the North Korean rhetoric of "self-reliance" and its dependence on socialist aids during the cold war is analyzed. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Pyongyang became heavily dependent on China. In the second section, the North Korean overdependence on China is investigated. As many scholars point out, dependence comes at the price of vulnerability. Pyongyang paid its price of overdependence as Beijing squeezed its vulnerable points during the nuclear crisis. In the third section, the vulnerability of North Korea is analyzed. In response to the tightening grip of China, Pyongyang has become increasingly sensitive to its vulnerability. In the fourth section, North Korea's recent efforts to distance itself from China are investigated. Finally, policy recommendations are discussed in the conclusion to alleviate the North Korean dependence on China.Behind the Rhetoric of "Self-reliance"Although Moscow engineered the establishment of North Korea, Stalin looked the other way when its initial victory during the KoreanWar (1950-1953) was reversed due to the U.S. intervention.2With the fate of North Korea hanging by a thread, Mao Zedong intervened with his "voluntary" army.3 The fact that China-and only China-came to the rescue of North Korea was not forgotten. The war experience solidified the two countries as "blood allies." Leaders of both countries have often invoked the expression "teeth and lips" to describe their solidarity. Like lips and teeth, it is argued, the fate of
2008年5月12日,第11届国际贸易博览会在平壤的三革命大厦开幕。在贸易博览会开幕前的几个月里,朝鲜人民打扫街道,装饰建筑,为期待已久的贸易博览会做准备。据北韩政府透露,此次博览会将有220多家企业参展,展示“电子电器、汽车、石油化学产品、药品、日用品、食品等”。(朝鲜中央通讯社2008年5月5日)。这应该是一个主要的国际博览会,有来自世界各地的各种消费品。然而,当博览会最终盛大开幕时,外部观察家和朝鲜公民都感到困惑,因为90%以上的产品都是中国产品。正如一位记者指出的那样,所谓的国际博览会实际上是一个中国博览会(中央日报,2008年5月15日)。这一事件具有象征意义,因为北京已成为朝鲜对外的出口。2000年,中国占朝鲜贸易的25%。到2009年,这一数字上升到78.5%。因此,从平壤的角度来看,中国世博会与“国际博览会”之间几乎没有什么区别。本文的主要目的是分析朝鲜对北京日益增长的依赖,并提供一些应对政策。第一部分分析了冷战时期朝鲜“自力更生”的修辞与依赖社会主义援助之间的差异。苏联解体后,平壤严重依赖中国。第二部分考察了朝鲜对中国的过度依赖。正如许多学者指出的那样,依赖是以脆弱为代价的。在核危机期间,北京挤压了朝鲜的弱点,朝鲜为此付出了过度依赖的代价。第三部分分析了朝鲜的脆弱性。为了应对中国日益收紧的控制,平壤方面对自身的脆弱性变得越来越敏感。第四部分考察了朝鲜近来与中国保持距离的努力。最后,在结论部分讨论了减轻朝鲜对中国依赖的政策建议。△“自力更生”的背后:虽然莫斯科策划了朝鲜的建立,但当朝鲜战争(1950-1953)初期的胜利因美国的干预而逆转时,斯大林却睁只眼闭只眼。中国——而且只有中国——拯救朝鲜的事实没有被遗忘。战争经历巩固了两国的“血缘盟友”关系。两国领导人经常用“唇齿相接”来形容两国的团结。有人认为,就像嘴唇和牙齿一样,中国和朝鲜的命运也是密不可分的。但是,随着冷战的加深,北韩越来越强调教的思想是国家的指导精神。根据金日成的说法,朝鲜的思想由三个原则组成:朝鲜应该“政治上独立”、“军事上自卫”和“经济上自立”。综合起来,它意味着“抛弃依赖他人精神的独立立场,展现自力更生的精神。”自力更生的经济尤其重要,因为当一个国家依赖其他国家时,它可能会堕落为“殖民奴役”。因此,金日成认为朝鲜应该采用自己拥有资源、劳动力和技术的中国经济。当“嘴唇”追求自力更生时,“牙齿”探索了一条不同的道路。在改革加速的1984年,金日成被邀请访问中国。…
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引用次数: 4
An Examination of China's Treatment of North Korean Asylum Seekers 中国对待朝鲜寻求庇护者的审查
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.7.1.36
Russ Aldrich
IntroductionChina is in violation of a number of its obligations as a signatory to the United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees.1 The Convention guarantees refugees a number of important rights, including access to courts, freedom of movement, and the right to work.2 On September 24, 1982, China became a signatory to the Convention, binding itself under international law to honor the agreement's provisions. 3 Yet today, more than twenty-five years later, China remains in violation of its obligations under the Convention, especially with regard to thousands of North Korean asylum seekers streaming across its border annually.North Korea remains one of the most repressive, isolated, and impoverished nations on earth. Freedom of press, movement, religion, and assembly are nonexistent, while torture, harsh imprisonment, and execution are routine.4 Increasingly, North Koreans risk death to illegally cross into China for a chance to flee persecution and enjoy a better life. However, the danger does not end once they have successfully crossed. Chinese officials routinely refouler-that is, return-North Koreans to their homeland where they face severe repercussions for what their government views as an act of treason.In returning refugees to North Korea, China argues that North Korean asylum seekers are not refugees under the Convention's definition and that therefore they do not qualify for its protection. This argument is without merit, and China must be held accountable to its treaty obligations under international law.The "Refugee" Question: Classifying North Korean Asylum SeekersChina considers the North Korean asylum seekers to be economic migrants, not refugees, and thus maintains that they do not qualify for protection under the Convention. This argument is baseless. First, North Korea's extreme economic hardship disproportionately burdens certain segments of the North Korean population and is therefore tantamount to persecution, and moreover, it is sufficiently discriminatory to meet the Convention's definition of the term "refugee." Second, the Convention's object and purpose suggest a broader interpretation of "refugee" which indicates China should deal humanely with the North Koreans when determining a course of action. Third, even if North Koreans did not qualify for the Convention's protection prior to crossing into China, they most likely do after the fact as refugees sur place because they have a well- founded fear of persecution if they ever return to North Korea. Lastly, China's unwillingness to make a good faith determination of status should require that any request by a North Korean for refugee status should be accepted as true until proven otherwise.Dismissing China's "Economic Migrant" ArgumentChina maintains that the Convention does not apply because the North Koreans illegally crossing its border are economic migrants, not refugees.5 The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) defines economic migr
中国违反了其作为《联合国难民地位公约》签署国的若干义务。1《公约》保障难民的若干重要权利,包括诉诸法院、行动自由和工作权利1982年9月24日,中国成为《公约》的签署国,受国际法约束遵守《公约》的规定。然而,25多年后的今天,中国仍然违反《公约》规定的义务,特别是对每年涌入中国边境的数千名朝鲜寻求庇护者。朝鲜仍然是世界上最专制、最孤立、最贫穷的国家之一。出版自由、行动自由、宗教自由和集会自由都不存在,而酷刑、严酷的监禁和处决却屡见不鲜越来越多的朝鲜人冒着死亡的危险非法越境进入中国,以期有机会逃离迫害,享受更好的生活。然而,一旦他们成功穿越,危险并没有结束。中国官员通常会将朝鲜人遣返回国,在那里他们会因为被政府视为叛国罪而面临严重的后果。在将难民送回朝鲜的问题上,中国辩称,根据《公约》的定义,朝鲜寻求庇护者不是难民,因此他们没有资格获得中国的保护。这种说法毫无根据,中国必须对其在国际法下的条约义务负责。“难民”问题:对朝鲜寻求庇护者进行分类中国认为朝鲜寻求庇护者是经济移民,而不是难民,因此坚持认为他们没有资格获得《公约》的保护。这个论点是毫无根据的。首先,朝鲜极端的经济困难给朝鲜人口的某些部分造成了不成比例的负担,因此等同于迫害,而且,这足以符合公约对“难民”一词的定义。其次,《公约》的目标和宗旨暗示了对“难民”更广泛的解释,这表明中国在确定行动方针时应该人道地对待朝鲜人。第三,即使朝鲜人在进入中国之前没有资格获得《公约》的保护,他们也很可能在事实发生后作为就地难民获得保护,因为他们有充分的理由担心,如果他们回到朝鲜,会受到迫害。最后,由于中国不愿意善意地确定朝鲜的身份,因此,在证明事实并非如此之前,朝鲜难民身份的任何请求都应被视为真实。驳斥中国的“经济移民”论点中国坚持认为《公约》不适用,因为非法越境的朝鲜人是经济移民,而不是难民联合国难民事务高级专员(难民专员办事处)将经济移民定义为那些出于个人原因,如家庭或冒险的愿望而自愿离开本国的人具体来说,任何人“完全出于经济考虑……是经济移民而不是难民。经济困难、技术限制、能源短缺和自然灾害导致了朝鲜大规模的食品短缺。因此,至少有相当数量的朝鲜人逃到中国确实是出于经济考虑,这一点也不投机。然而,根据《公约》,要申请难民地位,他们还必须表现出“有充分理由担心因种族、宗教、国籍、某一特定社会群体的成员或政治观点而受到迫害”。难民必须“在其国籍国之外……不能,或由于这种担心,……不愿利用那个国家的保护。…
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引用次数: 6
North Korea's 2009 currency reform in the context of national narrative 朝鲜2009年货币改革的国家叙事背景
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.7.1.64
A. Abrahamian
IntroductionThere is a new economic focus in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, one that overtly states it will improve the quality of people's lives and covertly states that the central government will provide this improvement. This has been made clear both through the Korean Worker's Party's public pronouncements and recent economic policies, in particular the currency reform of November 2009, which was car- ried out without warning and served to confiscate the wealth traders and corrupt officials privately earned through market activities. North Korea's deepening economic ties to China are the key material factor for this development strategy; no other trading partner is able or willing to provide the necessary investment. However, to understand the DPRK's prospects for success, one must first understand how the new focus has been constituted as a social movement. It is a recasting of the intimately bound Juche (the official ideology emphasizing self-reliance and independence) and the DPRK's national narrative. For North Korea's citizens, it is this national narrative that contextualizes the plans currently being implemented by Pyongyang, giving them a chance to stabilize the regime.The National NarrativeAll states employ some form of national narrative to shape the conduct and ideals of the populace. North Korea, more than any other nation, uses a national narrative that subsumes all other stories, local and personal. When one's society is ostensibly without a profit motive for individual success, the role of the national narrative becomes elevated for motivating the citizenry. Despite the hardships that ordinary North Korean citizens endure, there exists a basic, shared understanding of North Korea's position in the world, to which the majority of citizens subscribe, to varying degrees.The national narrative rests on the very edge of two seemingly contradictory positions: extreme victimhood and extraordinary accomplishment. A cursory glance at any North Korean media will reveal that victimization at the hands of the Japanese and then Americans is the glue that bonds their society and motivates action. Psychologist Joshua Searle White writes:One powerful way in which individuals can achieve a feeling of being right is to have been victimized, and to have others recognize that victimization. One would think that in a group's stories about its own history, national triumphs might play the dominant role. However, national tragedies often play an even more prominent role in the way that a nation sees itself.1Victimhood, as White writes, may be dominant in most nations, but in North Korea it operates only insofar as it contextualizes the successes the Korean people have achieved through struggle and unity. Shared victimhood that doesn't bear fruit will simply become uninspiring after a while. In this sense, the DPRK's domestic propaganda, while always intense and unremitting, must constantly be adjusted to actual circumstances, at times em
在朝鲜民主主义人民共和国有一个新的经济焦点,它公开表示将提高人民的生活质量,并暗中表示中央政府将提供这种改善。这一点在朝鲜劳动党的公开声明和最近的经济政策中都表现得很明显,尤其是2009年11月的货币改革,该改革在没有任何警告的情况下实施,其目的是没收商人和腐败官员通过市场活动私下赚取的财富。朝鲜深化与中国的经济联系是这一发展战略的关键物质因素;没有其他贸易伙伴能够或愿意提供必要的投资。然而,要了解朝鲜民主主义人民共和国的成功前景,首先必须了解新的焦点是如何构成为一场社会运动的。这是对密切相关的主体思想(强调自力更生和独立的官方意识形态)和朝鲜民族叙事的重新塑造。对朝鲜公民来说,正是这种国家叙事将平壤目前正在实施的计划置于背景之下,给了他们一个稳定政权的机会。国家叙事所有国家都采用某种形式的国家叙事来塑造民众的行为和理想。朝鲜比其他任何国家都更多地使用一种包含所有其他故事的国家叙事,无论是地方的还是个人的。当一个社会表面上没有个人成功的利润动机时,国家叙事在激励公民方面的作用就会得到提升。尽管普通朝鲜公民忍受着苦难,但对于朝鲜在世界上的地位,存在着一种基本的、共同的认识,大多数公民在不同程度上认同这种认识。国家叙事建立在两个看似矛盾的立场的边缘:极端的受害者和非凡的成就。随便浏览一下朝鲜的媒体,你就会发现,先是日本人,然后是美国人的迫害,是维系朝鲜社会、激发行动的粘合剂。心理学家Joshua Searle White写道:个人获得正确感觉的一种强有力的方式是成为受害者,并让他人认识到这种受害。人们可能会认为,在一个群体讲述自己历史的故事中,国家的胜利可能占据主导地位。然而,民族悲剧往往在一个国家看待自己的方式中发挥着更为突出的作用。正如怀特所写的那样,受害者意识可能在大多数国家占据主导地位,但在朝鲜,它只会在朝鲜人民通过斗争和团结取得成功的背景下发挥作用。没有结果的共同受害者身份在一段时间后会变得毫无意义。从这个意义上说,朝鲜的国内宣传虽然总是激烈而不懈,但必须不断根据实际情况进行调整,有时强调受害,有时强调成就和胜利。相比之下,美国的国家叙事集中在想象中不知疲倦地走向自由(对所有人来说)和财富(对一些人来说)。一项关于美国学童对历史态度的研究得出结论:“民族主义的核心是成功,而不是受害:其他人可能渴望自由,但我们实际上已经实现了自由。”朝鲜的宣传还声称,他们的社会已经获得了一种其他人只能渴望的自由,并强调国家的成功。事实上,由于没有私人媒体来宣传社会/政治或技术成就,国有宣传机构以其独特的、夸夸其谈的风格来宣传这些主题。然而,朝鲜必须把握好一条微妙的界限,既要让受害者的叙事出现,又要激励民众,为这个国家的缺点提供一个外部理由。…
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引用次数: 2
Seven Business Models for Success of North Korea's Economic Reform 朝鲜经济改革成功的七大商业模式
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.6.2.86
Sunghack Lim
IntroductionThe North-South Korean economic cooperation has been expanding since it was made official in 1988. The amount of trade between the two Koreas has increased from $18,724 in 1989 to $190 million in 2009. The sustained development of the two Koreas' economic cooperation is a result of efforts by not only the private sector but also the public sector, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the Korean public. This cooperation represents more than just practical results from economic cooperation between the two Koreas; it is a barometer by which the possibility of Korean unification may be gauged.The North-South Korean economic cooperation started off by trading restricted items and by the consignment processing of manufacturing industries, and in 2002, a joint Korean industrial park, the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, was established in North Korea. For South Korea, Gaeseong is an opportunity to utilize North Korea's low-wage workers, which would enhance the competitiveness of South Korean companies. On the other hand, North Korea could achieve much-needed economic growth by attracting South Korea's investment in the North's special economic zones (SEZs). At present, 116 companies have moved to the Gaeseong SEZ, employing 40,000 North Korean workers. The accumulated production volume between January 2005 and November 2009 was $729 million, and the exports were $120 million. The Gaeseong SEZ is planning to include 2,000 companies with 350,000 workers and is targeting an annual production volume of $16 billion.Previous studies on the North-South Korean economic cooperation have approached the topic mainly in the context of domestic and foreign policies, not in the business context.1 That is, previous studies have generally regarded well-organized business models and management ability as exogenous variables. Based on this assumption, an examination of the North-South Korean economic cooperation in the business context should yield a deeper understanding of the project's sustainability. Further, such an approach may induce higher levels of participation in the project by all sectors of Korean society.This paper examines how the North-South Korean economic cooperation and firms in North Korea could achieve success. In addition, the paper illustrates a profitdriven North-South business model and provides applicable cases for each model. The paper also determines the types of firms that would most likely succeed for each of the four SEZs and discusses the practical implications.North-South Korean Economic Cooperation Business ModelsThis paper classifies the business types of the two Koreas by using productive combinations of economic resources. The neoclassical school looks at labor, capital, and natural resources, among others, as main economic resources.2 Today, such resources also include production and technology/management know-how. These added factors are essential in explaining not only the issue of trade but also the phenomeno
南北经济合作自1988年正式确立以来,一直在不断扩大。南北贸易额从1989年的1万8724美元增加到2009年的1亿9000万美元。南北经济合作的持续发展不仅是民间的努力,也是公共部门、学术界、民间团体(ngo)和国民共同努力的结果。这种合作不仅仅是南北经济合作的实际成果。它是衡量朝鲜半岛统一可能性的晴雨表。南北经济合作从限制物品的交易和制造业的委托加工开始,2002年在北韩建立了南北共同工业园区——开城工业园区。对于韩国来说,开城是利用朝鲜低工资工人的机会,这将提高韩国企业的竞争力。另一方面,朝鲜可以通过吸引韩国对朝鲜经济特区的投资来实现急需的经济增长。目前,有116家企业入驻开城经济特区,雇用了4万多名北韩工人。2005年1月至2009年11月的累计产量为7.29亿美元,出口额为1.2亿美元。开城经济特区的目标是拥有2000家企业和35万名工人,年生产规模达到160亿美元。以往关于南北韩经济合作的研究主要是在国内和外交政策的背景下进行的,而不是在商业背景下进行的也就是说,以往的研究普遍将组织良好的商业模式和管理能力作为外生变量。基于这一假设,在商业背景下对南北朝鲜经济合作的考察应能更深入地了解该项目的可持续性。此外,这种方法可能促使韩国社会所有部门更高程度地参与该项目。本文探讨了南北经济合作与企业在朝鲜如何取得成功。此外,本文还阐述了一种利润驱动的南北商业模式,并提供了每种模式的适用案例。本文还确定了最有可能在这四个经济特区取得成功的企业类型,并讨论了其实际意义。南北韩经济合作的商业模式本文利用经济资源的生产性组合对南北韩的商业类型进行了分类。新古典主义学派把劳动力、资本和自然资源等看作主要的经济资源今天,这些资源还包括生产和技术/管理知识。这些附加的因素不仅在解释贸易问题,而且在解释外国直接投资现象方面都是必不可少的如上所述,南北经济合作已经从寄售加工发展到直接投资,这很难仅仅通过新古典学派所指出的自然资源来解释。在这方面,本文假设四种经济资源——自然资源、劳动力、技术/管理知识和资本——作为朝鲜和韩国商业类型和商业发展阶段分类的因素。尽管由于重复使用,这四种经济资源可以形成数百种组合,但在现实世界中,对每种可能的模型进行分类是不现实的。因此,本文只讨论了七种类型的企业。第一种是将北韩劳动力和韩国资本结合在一起的间接制造模式。第二种是直接制造模式,它结合了朝鲜的劳动力和韩国的技术/管理知识。…
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引用次数: 0
A Game-Theoretic Approach to Derivation of President Barack Obama's North Korea Policy 美国总统奥巴马对朝政策推导的博弈论方法
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.6.2.12
Inchul Kim
OverviewThe tension on the Korean Peninsula decreased immediately following the dramatic reconciliation, in June 2000, between Kim Il-Sung, former leader of North Korea, and Kim Dae-jung, president of South Korea. President Kim Dae-jung adopted a policy of engagement toward North Korea called the "Sunshine Policy." Subsequent to President Kim Dae-jung's five-year rule, President Ro Moo Hyun inherited the engagement policy from his predecessor. Under the Sunshine Policy, South Korea provided North Korea with generous economic aid on an annual basis from 1998 to 2007.At the beginning of 2008, South Korea switched from a one-way engagement policy to a policy of give-and-take. South Korea's new president, Lee Myung Bak, inaugurated in February 2008, initiated this policy shift. President Lee came to believe that South Korea's engagement policy had failed. In February 2009, Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the U.S.Under the Clinton administration, the U.S. attempted to settle disputes through direct dialogue with North Korea. It is reasonable to assume therefore that under the Obama regime, more of a direct dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. may be pursued to resolve pending issues, including North Korea's development of weapons of mass destruction and support of rogue terrorist states.North Korea has been excessively provocative in recent years. On October 9, 2006, North Korea test-launched a nuclear missile. Neighboring countries immediately expressed serious concern, and the U.S. nuclear envoy, Christopher Hill, doubled his efforts to ensure that North Korea fulfill its agreements on denuclearization through the Six-Party Talks countries; namely, South Korea, North Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. North Korea agreed to disable the Yongbyon nuclear reactor and to dismantle nuclear facilities in the interest of nonproliferation. The international community is watching closely to determine whether North Korea will fulfill its obligations under these agreements. Kim Jong-il has to decide whether he will take further steps to put North Korea in the nuclear power club-which would be likely to invite furious resistance from the Western world-or opt instead to abandon the nuclear program to improve international relations.The purpose of this paper is to envisage President Obama's North Korea policy by applying game theory. In game theory, players try to adopt the best strategy, given their objective function. There have been six major players so far in the Korean Peninsula's nuclear conflict. We point out that interstate differences in the objectives between the national leaders and the party/military leaders have undermined the Six-Party Talks.This paper focuses on the game play between North Korea and the U.S. Although Kim Jong-il can effectively control his military advisers at present, there are potential divergences in their respective viewpoints, which may become more evident in the future.The Game Play in Economi
2000年6月,朝鲜前领导人金日成(Kim Il-Sung)与韩国总统金大中(Kim Dae-jung)戏剧性地和解后,朝鲜半岛的紧张局势立即缓和。金大中总统的对北包容政策是“阳光政策”。金大中总统执政5年后,卢武铉总统继承了前任总统的包容政策。根据阳光政策,韩国从1998年到2007年每年向朝鲜提供慷慨的经济援助。2008年初,韩国从单向接触政策转向了互让政策。2008年2月就职的韩国新总统李明博(Lee Myung Bak)开启了这一政策转变。李明博总统开始相信,韩国的包容政策已经失败。2009年2月,奥巴马就任美国第44任总统。在克林顿政府时期,美国试图通过与朝鲜直接对话来解决争端。因此,有理由认为,在奥巴马政府的领导下,北韩与美国之间可能会进行更多的直接对话,以解决北韩开发大规模杀伤性武器和支持流氓恐怖主义国家等悬而未决的问题。近年来,朝鲜一直在过度挑衅。2006年10月9日,朝鲜试射了一枚核导弹。邻国立即表达了严重关切,美国核问题特使克里斯托弗·希尔(Christopher Hill)加倍努力,确保北韩通过六方会谈国家履行其无核化协议;即韩国、北韩、中国、俄罗斯、日本和美国。北韩同意为了不扩散而使宁边核反应堆去功能化并拆除核设施。国际社会正在密切关注北韩是否会履行这些协议规定的义务。金正日必须决定,是采取进一步措施将朝鲜纳入核大国俱乐部——这可能会招致西方世界的强烈抵制——还是选择放弃核计划以改善国际关系。本文的目的是运用博弈论来设想奥巴马总统的对朝政策。在博弈论中,玩家会根据自己的目标函数选择最佳策略。到目前为止,朝鲜半岛的核冲突有六个主要参与者。我们指出,国家领导人和党/军领导人在目标上的国家间差异破坏了六方会谈。虽然金正日目前可以有效地控制他的军事顾问,但他们各自的观点存在潜在的分歧,这种分歧在未来可能会更加明显。▽韩朝经济合作的博弈:2000年6月,韩国总统金大中与朝鲜国防委员长金正日首次会晤,以缓和朝鲜半岛的紧张局势。此后,南北和解和经济合作的范围不断扩大。双方就离散家属相逢、开城工业园区建设、共同开发金刚山旅游等问题达成了协议。2006年10月9日,朝鲜发射了两枚核导弹,这段“蜜月期”戛然而止。2000年至2006年,金大中总统和卢武铉总统对北韩实施了和解的包容政策。在韩国慷慨的经济援助下,朝鲜得以克服严重的粮食和能源短缺。作为回报,朝鲜向韩国人开放金刚山,并允许韩国企业在开城工业园区雇佣工资较低的工人。…
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引用次数: 0
North Korea's Nuclear Policy towards the U.S.: The Bureaucratic Politics Model 朝鲜对美核政策:官僚政治模式
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.6.2.100
M. Ahn
IntroductionNorth Korean foreign policy has been formulated and implemented with priority given to policy towards the U.S. after the North Korean nuclear crisis of the early 1990s. North Korea assumes that it can survive only under the guarantee of the U.S. for its national security. This attitude was substantially formed after the normalization of South Korean relations with the Soviet Union in 1990 and China in 1992. North Korean relations with China, in particular, were regarded as a blood alliance forged in the Korean War. However, the nature of Sino-North Korean relations changed after the normalization of South Korea-China relations. Moreover, China has begun to value international norms and law as it has grown into a power state in the international community and is apt to treat North Korea as a normal rather than special state. These circumstances forced the North to concentrate its efforts on foreign policy towards the U.S.As for the nuclear program, North Korea believes that nuclear weapons can protect it from external invasion and has therefore developed long-range missiles and nuclear warheads. The North Korean intention to develop nuclear weapons runs against the American foreign policy of emphasizing the nonproliferation of nuclear warheads. The conflict between North Korea and the U.S. on the nuclear program led North Korea to formulate and implement its nuclear policy with prudence and the involvement of many government departments.Most studies on North Korean foreign policy have focused on the influence of the top leader's perception and rational action. This paper conducts research from a different perspective by examining the North's foreign policy in terms of the bureaucratic politics model. Analysts argue that North Korean foreign policies have mostly been made by the top decision-maker. In contrast to such previous studies, this article focuses on the decision-making process under the top leader and argues that the "pulling and hauling" among North Korean bureaucrats to establish foreign policies has significantly affected North Korean foreign policies. Different policy preferences have been identified by U.S. negotiators who participated in the North Korea-U.S. talks held in 1993 and 1994 and by analysts who interviewed North Korean officials. This research is conducted by analyzing those policy preferences and the process of reaching compromise between bureaucratic groups in North Korea.Making Foreign Policy in North Korea and Bureaucratic Politics ModelUntil the demise of the Cold War, analysts who specialized in North Korean foreign policy mostly inquired into the role of the top leader and the Juche (self-reliance) ideology. Since then, such studies have mainly covered its historical changes and its characteristics in the era of Kim Jong-il. Some studies expanded their scope to examine the structure and process of North Korean foreign policy on the basis of theoretical frameworks.1 Theory-based studies must be increased
20世纪90年代初朝鲜核危机后,朝鲜外交政策的制定和实施以对美政策为主。北韩认为,只有在美国的安全保障下才能生存。这种态度是在1990年与苏联、1992年与中国关系正常化后形成的。特别是朝鲜与中国的关系,被视为在朝鲜战争中结成的血盟。然而,在中韩关系正常化之后,中朝关系的性质发生了变化。此外,中国在国际社会中已经成为强国,开始重视国际规范和法律,并倾向于将北韩视为正常国家而不是特殊国家。在这种情况下,北韩不得不把精力集中在对美外交政策上。就核问题而言,北韩认为核武器可以保护自己免受外部入侵,因此开发了远程导弹和核弹头。朝鲜发展核武器的意图与美国强调不扩散核弹头的外交政策背道而驰。北韩与美国在核问题上的矛盾,导致北韩在制定和实施核政策时非常谨慎,而且有很多政府部门参与。大多数关于朝鲜外交政策的研究都集中在最高领导人的认知和理性行动的影响上。本文从不同的角度,从官僚政治模式的角度审视朝鲜的外交政策。分析人士认为,朝鲜的外交政策主要是由最高决策者制定的。与以往的研究不同,本文关注的是最高领导人领导下的决策过程,认为朝鲜官僚之间制定外交政策的“拉扯”对朝鲜的外交政策产生了重大影响。参加北韩-美国六方会谈的美国谈判代表确定了不同的政策倾向。会谈分别于1993年和1994年举行,并由采访朝鲜官员的分析人士提供。该研究是通过分析这些政策倾向和朝鲜官僚集团之间达成妥协的过程进行的。▽制定北韩外交政策和官僚政治模式=直到冷战结束为止,专门研究北韩外交政策的专家们主要研究的是最高领导人的作用和主体思想。此后,这类研究主要涉及金正日时代朝鲜的历史变迁和特点。一些研究扩大了研究范围,在理论框架的基础上考察了朝鲜外交政策的结构和过程对北韩外交政策的可预见性有了更深入的了解,因此有必要加强理论研究。然而,基于认知模型、理性行为人方法和官僚政治模型等理论框架的研究案例却很少,而这些理论框架是外交政策分析的关键方法。特别是,由于两个原因,没有使用官僚政治模式来研究朝鲜的外交政策。首先,分析人士怀疑官僚政治模式能否适用于朝鲜的社会主义和威权体制。其次,对官僚政治模式的研究需要深入考察和分析外交政策的制定过程。收集有关北韩外交政策的资料的困难一直是这方面研究的障碍。每一种政治制度都有等级制度,由高层领导人、中层领导人和众多官僚组成。…
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引用次数: 6
On Bringing Japan's Pachinko Gaming Industry into the Debate on North Korea 将日本弹珠机游戏产业带入朝鲜问题的讨论
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.6.2.24
E. Magaña
IntroductionAs Seoul and Washington moved towards detente vis-a-vis Pyongyang following the nuclear crisis of the mid-1990s, Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il held a summit in Pyongyang in September 2002, during which a surprising revelation came to light regarding the fate of a number of missing Japanese citizens that were long believed to have been abducted by North Korean agents. As necessitated by the agreements reached during summit negotiations and outlined in the Pyongyang Declaration, Kim Jong Il acknowledged and apologized for the kidnappings of Japanese nationals during the 1970s and 1980s, which were carried out by the North Korean military to learn the Japanese language and assume the identities of the abductees.1 However, the admission did not improve relations between the two countries. On the contrary, normalization talks came to a screeching halt when the Japanese public became enraged following the news of North Korea's official confirmation, as most considered the abductions as an infringement on Japan's national sovereignty. This issue now plays a central role in Japan's policy-making with regard to North Korea, prompting Tokyo to take tough measures against Japan's pro-Pyongyang Korean community and to freeze diplomatic normalization talks until the abduction cases are satisfactorily resolved.The sensation over the abduction issue formed not only a rift in Japan-North Korea relations but it also caused an atmosphere of distrust for the ethnic Korean communities in Japan. Japan's over 600,000 ethnic Korean permanent residents have experienced widespread discrimination and racism for decades in Japanese society. As a result, they created a vast network of businesses and community support organizations to protect their interests.2 The majority of the country's ethnic Koreans are members of either the Korean Residents' Union (KRU, or Mindan in Japanese) or the General Association of Korean Residents (GAKR, or Chosen Soren), depending on their citizenship status in either South Korea or North Korea, respectively. While members of either organization face legal barriers and persistent maltreatment in their day-to-day lives, the brunt of the criticism from the Japanese since 2002 has primarily been aimed at the pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents and its 50,000 members. This increasingly aggressive trend is seen in harsh media coverage, physical and verbal attacks, and damaging governmental policies that single out the GAKR and its members.The General Association of Korean Residents is a support organization for ethnic Koreans that provides access to ethnic-education-based private schools, as well as financial institutions, job placement programs, cultural centers and other services. It serves as an umbrella organization that facilitates and coordinates services offered by member organizations and businesses among the pro-North community, and brokers contact among Japan's
在20世纪90年代中期的核危机之后,随着首尔和华盛顿开始缓和与朝鲜的关系,日本首相小泉纯一郎和朝鲜领导人金正日于2002年9月在平壤举行了首脑会议,期间令人惊讶地揭示了长期以来被认为是被朝鲜特工绑架的失踪日本公民的命运。根据首脑会谈达成的协议和《平壤宣言》的要求,金正日承认并对20世纪70年代和80年代朝鲜军队为学习日语和承担被绑架者身份而绑架日本国民的行为表示道歉然而,这一承认并没有改善两国关系。相反,在北韩正式确认这一消息后,日本民众感到愤怒,认为绑架是对日本国家主权的侵犯,正常化谈判戛然停止。这个问题现在在日本有关朝鲜的政策制定中起着核心作用,促使东京对亲朝鲜的日本朝鲜人社区采取强硬措施,并冻结外交正常化谈判,直到绑架事件得到圆满解决。绑架事件不仅造成了日朝关系的裂痕,还造成了对旅日朝鲜族的不信任。日本60多万朝鲜族常住居民几十年来在日本社会中遭受了广泛的歧视和种族主义。因此,他们建立了一个庞大的商业网络和社区支持组织来保护他们的利益这个国家的大多数朝鲜族都是朝鲜居民联盟(KRU,日语叫民团)或朝鲜居民总会(GAKR,日语叫选择社)的成员,这取决于他们在韩国或朝鲜的公民身份。虽然这两个组织的成员在日常生活中都面临法律障碍和持续的虐待,但自2002年以来,日本人的批评主要针对亲平壤的韩国居民总联合会及其5万名成员。这种日益激进的趋势体现在严厉的媒体报道、身体和语言攻击以及针对GAKR及其成员的破坏性政府政策上。侨胞总联合会是向侨胞提供民族教育私立学校、金融机构、就业介绍所、文化中心等服务的支援团体。它是促进和协调亲北团体成员团体和企业之间的服务的伞状组织,并在日本同胞与他们在北韩的商业伙伴和亲属之间进行联系。也许它最突出的作用是在东京和平壤之间没有正式外交关系的情况下充当朝鲜事实上的驻日大使馆。GAKR的中央委员会直接受朝鲜劳动党统一战线部总会部的监督,该组织的主席和其他四名官员是平壤最高人民会议的成员。几十年来,GAKR与日本的政党保持着联系,这些政党有商业利益或希望接触平壤的官员。但由于绑架问题现在是日本政治的推动力,其支持已基本消失,其公众形象也严重受损。然而,尽管东京的议员们试图在公众因绑架事件和其他外交政策问题而蔑视朝鲜的背景下,动摇该组织的教育、政治和商业机构,但GAKR成员和该组织本身拥有的弹珠游戏厅(一种以现金和奖金为目的的日式弹珠游戏)基本上没有受到影响。…
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of North Korean Drug Trafficking: State Control to Private Participation 朝鲜贩毒的演变:国家管制到民间参与
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3172/NKR.6.2.55
Min-woo Yun, E. Y. Kim
IntroductionThe North Korean state has been suspected of sponsoring illicit drug trafficking for more than 20 years.1 The rogue state tightly controlled this industry. The ordinary citizens had no knowledge of the existence of drug trafficking.2 However, there are allegations3 that a growing number of civilian North Koreans have been aware of and involved with drug trafficking for personal profit.As a response to the aforementioned allegations, this paper tries to explore the evolution of North Korean drug trafficking from state control into substantial private participation. This study answers three research questions: (1) Is private participation in the North Korea drug trafficking substantial? (2) If so, what is the current state of the privately controlled North Korean illicit drug business? (3) How has North Korean drug operations evolved from tight state control to private participation?The authors have documented and evaluated this issue, and have adopted two feasible ways to collect data: from primary and supplementary sources. Primary data sources are in-depth interviews with North Korean defectors who were victims of human trafficking from North Korea into China. Supplementary data sources include various written documents, reports, and articles. The content analysis of these various written reports will be used as a supplement.4It has been found that the issue of North Korean drug trafficking has very few empirical studies. This may be due to the difficulty of obtaining empirical data as a result of the secluded nature of North Korea on one hand and the overemphasis on political, economic, and security matters of the North Korean state and relative neglect on criminal matters of North Korean private individuals among social scientists. Thus, this study has a certain merit in this regard.Historical Background of North Korean Drug TraffickingDue to North Korea's economic trouble,5 the North Korean state deliberately chose various transnational crime businesses including drug trafficking as a state policy to earn foreign currency.6 In the early 1970s, North Korean officials simply bought and sold foreign-sourced illicit drugs. Then, beginning in 1976, the state itself began to cultivate the opium poppy and sell the raw opium overseas.7 However, since raw opium was not very profitable, the state soon launched the refining process that turns raw opium into heroin. By the mid-1980s, the North Korean state had a wellestablished heroin production system. The state cultivated, refined, and exported products. During this period, illicit drug production and trafficking were under the strict control of the state. Most opium poppy farms were located on remote mountainsides which were strictly off limits to the ordinary population.8Since 1990, a series of international, economic, and environmental crises has significantly weakened the North Korean state.9 The state's production and distribution system collapsed. A substantial proportion of the North
20多年来,朝鲜一直被怀疑支持非法毒品贩运这个流氓国家严格控制着这个行业。普通市民不知道毒品走私的存在然而,有指控称,越来越多的北韩平民知道并参与贩毒活动,以谋取个人利益。作为对上述指控的回应,本文试图探讨朝鲜毒品贩运从国家控制到大量私人参与的演变。本研究回答了三个研究问题:(1)私人参与朝鲜毒品走私是否实质性?(2)如果是这样,那么朝鲜私人控制的非法毒品业务的现状如何?(3)朝鲜的毒品活动是如何从严格的国家控制演变为私人参与的?作者已经记录和评估了这个问题,并采用了两种可行的方法来收集数据:从主要来源和补充来源。主要数据来源是对从朝鲜被贩卖到中国的脱北者的深度采访。补充数据源包括各种书面文件、报告和文章。这些各种书面报告的内容分析将作为补充。4 .人们发现,对朝鲜贩毒问题的实证研究很少。究其原因,一方面是因为北韩的封闭性,另一方面是因为社会科学家过分强调北韩的政治、经济、安全问题,而相对忽视北韩个人的刑事问题,因此很难获得经验数据。因此,本研究在这方面具有一定的价值。北朝鲜贩毒的历史背景由于北朝鲜的经济困难,北朝鲜政府故意选择包括贩毒在内的各种跨国犯罪业务作为赚取外汇的国策在20世纪70年代初,朝鲜官员只是买卖来自国外的非法毒品。然后,从1976年开始,国家自己开始种植罂粟,并向海外出售生鸦片然而,由于生鸦片利润不高,国家很快启动了将生鸦片转化为海洛因的精炼过程。到20世纪80年代中期,朝鲜已经建立了完善的海洛因生产体系。国家种植、提炼和出口产品。在此期间,非法毒品的生产和贩运受到国家的严格控制。大多数罂粟农场都位于偏远的山坡上,严格禁止普通民众进入。自1990年以来,一系列的国际、经济和环境危机极大地削弱了朝鲜政权国家的生产和分配系统崩溃了。很大一部分朝鲜人遭受了这场被称为“苦难行军”的经济灾难。根据大卫·r·霍克写的一份报告,11个人被迫寻找生存的方法。许多人在全国各地流浪寻找食物。犯罪和黑市出现了。还有很多人逃离朝鲜,非法进入俄罗斯和中国。因此,朝鲜政府在控制人口方面遇到了很大的困难。正是在这一时期,北韩的毒品贩运变得不那么集中,个人参与这一非法企业的规模大得多,以获取私人利润或供个人使用甚至有人指控说,帮派活动有所增加,犯罪集团成为毒品贩运的重要参与者这种私人参与也扩展到源自朝鲜的跨国毒品贩运。15假设的概念框架本研究提出了一个概念框架来解释朝鲜毒品贩运如何从国家控制转向私人参与。…
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引用次数: 8
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North Korean Review
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