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Predicting cargo handling and berthing times in bulk terminals: A neural network approach
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101351
Seçil Gülmez , Yiğit Gülmez , Ulla Pirita Tapaninen
This paper presents a comprehensive study on the development of a neural network model aimed at predicting the cargo handling time and berthing time. Utilizing physical ship data (length, beam, draught, DWT, and GT), cargo type, daily weather conditions, cargo handling equipment data, and historical operation times, the model aims to enhance the operational efficiency of bulk terminals. A case study conducted at a bulk terminal, leveraging a three-year dataset, serves as the foundation of this research. The outcomes of the neural network analysis highlight the average cargo handling capacity under various conditions, providing crucial insights for port operation optimizations such as determining the optimal number of gangs, calculating berth occupancy ratios, and improving berth planning strategies. The implications of these findings are significant, offering a pathway toward more efficient and predictive port management strategies, with the potential to substantially reduce operational costs and increase throughput efficiency. This study not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge by integrating diverse data types into a predictive model but also proposes practical applications that can lead to more informed decision-making in port and terminal operations.
{"title":"Predicting cargo handling and berthing times in bulk terminals: A neural network approach","authors":"Seçil Gülmez ,&nbsp;Yiğit Gülmez ,&nbsp;Ulla Pirita Tapaninen","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101351","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101351","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a comprehensive study on the development of a neural network model aimed at predicting the cargo handling time and berthing time. Utilizing physical ship data (length, beam, draught, DWT, and GT), cargo type, daily weather conditions, cargo handling equipment data, and historical operation times, the model aims to enhance the operational efficiency of bulk terminals. A case study conducted at a bulk terminal, leveraging a three-year dataset, serves as the foundation of this research. The outcomes of the neural network analysis highlight the average cargo handling capacity under various conditions, providing crucial insights for port operation optimizations such as determining the optimal number of gangs, calculating berth occupancy ratios, and improving berth planning strategies. The implications of these findings are significant, offering a pathway toward more efficient and predictive port management strategies, with the potential to substantially reduce operational costs and increase throughput efficiency. This study not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge by integrating diverse data types into a predictive model but also proposes practical applications that can lead to more informed decision-making in port and terminal operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101351"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
System dynamics modeling for assessing operational performance of an airport terminal
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101345
Marzan Hasan Nayeem , Shohreh Moradi , Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain , Mohammad Shamsuddoha , Md. Saiful Islam
The aviation industry has experienced steady growth over several years. One of the reasons for this growth is the high demand for air travel coupled with low entry barriers to the industry. Despite this growth, airports’ operational and commercial aspects remain complex. For instance, terminal overcrowding is a significant problem, potentially causing flight delays and passenger dissatisfaction. Consequently, airport planners and management must employ effective customer service strategies. Systems modeling has emerged as a cardinal approach in the aviation industry to address these challenges. This study adopts the system dynamics approach to improve the overall service performance of an airport terminal. For testing ground, we have considered one domestic airport located in Bangladesh. First, different service policy categories were defined for the airport. Subsequently, the service levels were determined and the impact of the proposed policies on service quality and passenger volume was assessed. By implementing better service policies, the time required for passengers to complete various procedures from entry to the final boarding gate decreased by up to 50.53 %. Therefore, better service policies improve the quality of service and minimize the risk of passengers missing their flights. The insights gained from this study can help administrators make informed decisions for improving the service at airport terminals.
{"title":"System dynamics modeling for assessing operational performance of an airport terminal","authors":"Marzan Hasan Nayeem ,&nbsp;Shohreh Moradi ,&nbsp;Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain ,&nbsp;Mohammad Shamsuddoha ,&nbsp;Md. Saiful Islam","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aviation industry has experienced steady growth over several years. One of the reasons for this growth is the high demand for air travel coupled with low entry barriers to the industry. Despite this growth, airports’ operational and commercial aspects remain complex. For instance, terminal overcrowding is a significant problem, potentially causing flight delays and passenger dissatisfaction. Consequently, airport planners and management must employ effective customer service strategies. Systems modeling has emerged as a cardinal approach in the aviation industry to address these challenges. This study adopts the system dynamics approach to improve the overall service performance of an airport terminal. For testing ground, we have considered one domestic airport located in Bangladesh. First, different service policy categories were defined for the airport. Subsequently, the service levels were determined and the impact of the proposed policies on service quality and passenger volume was assessed. By implementing better service policies, the time required for passengers to complete various procedures from entry to the final boarding gate decreased by up to 50.53 %. Therefore, better service policies improve the quality of service and minimize the risk of passengers missing their flights. The insights gained from this study can help administrators make informed decisions for improving the service at airport terminals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101345"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data-driven analysis of hazmat road transportation risks in Turkey
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101350
Nazli Gulum Mutlu
Hazardous material transportation is a complex system involving numerous actors, including staff, vehicles, tasks, companies, legislators, and regulatory mechanisms. The management of various hazards inherent in the system is crucial to prevent accidents that can cause catastrophic damage to drivers, residents, other vehicles, passengers, and the environment. Road transportation is the most commonly preferred mode for transporting hazardous materials domestically. Enhancing the safety of hazardous material transportation operations by road is a primary concern for the sector. To prevent hazardous materials (hazmat) road transportation accidents, it is essential to gather information from accident reports, including accident precursors and outcomes, to improve safety. However, research investigating accidents related to the transportation of hazardous materials on highways is limited. This study aims to determine sequential rules based on temporal dependencies between accident precursors and outcomes, unlike previous studies, using hazmat road transportation accident records within the scope of inland transportation in Turkey from 2015 to 2020. The TRuleGrowth algorithm, a significant task in data mining, was used to analyze accidents and present 75 sequential rules for the most frequently occurring combinations of outcome variables, including injury, fatality, injury and fatality, and damage level. The study’s results are expected to contribute to enhancing the safety of hazmat road transportation and to the literature.
{"title":"Data-driven analysis of hazmat road transportation risks in Turkey","authors":"Nazli Gulum Mutlu","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101350","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101350","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hazardous material transportation is a complex system involving numerous actors, including staff, vehicles, tasks, companies, legislators, and regulatory mechanisms. The management of various hazards inherent in the system is crucial to prevent accidents that can cause catastrophic damage to drivers, residents, other vehicles, passengers, and the environment. Road transportation is the most commonly preferred mode for transporting hazardous materials domestically. Enhancing the safety of hazardous material transportation operations by road is a primary concern for the sector. To prevent hazardous materials (hazmat) road transportation accidents, it is essential to gather information from accident reports, including accident precursors and outcomes, to improve safety. However, research investigating accidents related to the transportation of hazardous materials on highways is limited. This study aims to determine sequential rules based on temporal dependencies between accident precursors and outcomes, unlike previous studies, using hazmat road transportation accident records within the scope of inland transportation in Turkey from 2015 to 2020. The TRuleGrowth algorithm, a significant task in data mining, was used to analyze accidents and present 75 sequential rules for the most frequently occurring combinations of outcome variables, including injury, fatality, injury and fatality, and damage level. The study’s results are expected to contribute to enhancing the safety of hazmat road transportation and to the literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101350"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are all streets created equal? Measuring the differences in the built environment among streets with various socioeconomic characteristics in Montréal, Canada
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101349
Elitza Kraycheva, Hisham Negm, Madhav G. Badami, Ahmed El-Geneidy
Streets play an important role in shaping urban landscapes and sustaining city life. Through streetscape design, cities can foster vibrant and inclusive neighborhoods that cater to the diverse needs of their residents. Our research aims to determine whether variations at the microscale level of the built environment exist among streets of similar typologies across diverse socioeconomic neighborhoods in Montréal, QC, Canada. The short version of the Microscale Audit of Pedestrian Streetscapes (MAPS-Mini) tool was used to assess microscale features essential for creating high-quality built environments. Assessments were conducted using Google Street View and in-person site visits to ensure a comprehensive analysis of the tool’s effectiveness across different methodologies and urban contexts. Results show significant disparities in the quality of the built environment across various socioeconomic neighborhoods. Despite having identical typologies and characteristics, streets in lower-income areas generally exhibit poorer built environment quality, highlighting that streets are not always created equal in Montréal. This trend is particularly evident in medium and high-density neighborhoods. Less than a third of the audited streets were deemed to have high-quality built environments. This paper can be of value to practitioners working towards addressing disparities in the built environment to create equitable, healthy, and livable communities.
{"title":"Are all streets created equal? Measuring the differences in the built environment among streets with various socioeconomic characteristics in Montréal, Canada","authors":"Elitza Kraycheva,&nbsp;Hisham Negm,&nbsp;Madhav G. Badami,&nbsp;Ahmed El-Geneidy","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Streets play an important role in shaping urban landscapes and sustaining city life. Through streetscape design, cities can foster vibrant and inclusive neighborhoods that cater to the diverse needs of their residents. Our research aims to determine whether variations at the microscale level of the built environment exist among streets of similar typologies across diverse socioeconomic neighborhoods in Montréal, QC, Canada. The short version of the Microscale Audit of Pedestrian Streetscapes (MAPS-Mini) tool was used to assess microscale features essential for creating high-quality built environments. Assessments were conducted using Google Street View and in-person site visits to ensure a comprehensive analysis of the tool’s effectiveness across different methodologies and urban contexts. Results show significant disparities in the quality of the built environment across various socioeconomic neighborhoods. Despite having identical typologies and characteristics, streets in lower-income areas generally exhibit poorer built environment quality, highlighting that streets are not always created equal in Montréal. This trend is particularly evident in medium and high-density neighborhoods. Less than a third of the audited streets were deemed to have high-quality built environments. This paper can be of value to practitioners working towards addressing disparities in the built environment to create equitable, healthy, and livable communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101349"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines: A dual-stage SEM-ANN approach
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101347
Neşegül Zungur , Gamze Orhan , Mahmut Bakır
Recently, due to increasing pollution and global warming, eco-friendly consumer behaviors have garnered global interest in the aviation industry. This study aims to investigate the antecedents of the intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines. Building on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) framework, it examines the effects of environmental awareness, green image, and perceived price on the intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines directly and through perceived consumer effectiveness. It also investigates the moderating role of collectivism within the proposed model. Data were gathered from 394 passengers at Erzurum Airport, Turkey, using a self-administered questionnaire. A dual-stage approach, combining structural equation modeling (SEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) analysis, was employed to examine the relationships. The findings reveal that environmental awareness, green image, and perceived consumer effectiveness positively influence the intention to travel, with perceived consumer effectiveness mediating these relationships. However, collectivism does not moderate the relationship between environmental awareness and perceived consumer effectiveness. The ANN outcomes align with SEM findings, highlighting the strong predictive capability of environmental awareness and perceived consumer effectiveness. This study offers insights to help practitioners in the airline industry better understand how consumers form intentions to travel with eco-friendly airlines.
{"title":"Exploring intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines: A dual-stage SEM-ANN approach","authors":"Neşegül Zungur ,&nbsp;Gamze Orhan ,&nbsp;Mahmut Bakır","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, due to increasing pollution and global warming, eco-friendly consumer behaviors have garnered global interest in the aviation industry. This study aims to investigate the antecedents of the intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines. Building on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) framework, it examines the effects of environmental awareness, green image, and perceived price on the intention to travel with eco-friendly airlines directly and through perceived consumer effectiveness. It also investigates the moderating role of collectivism within the proposed model. Data were gathered from 394 passengers at Erzurum Airport, Turkey, using a self-administered questionnaire. A dual-stage approach, combining structural equation modeling (SEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) analysis, was employed to examine the relationships. The findings reveal that environmental awareness, green image, and perceived consumer effectiveness positively influence the intention to travel, with perceived consumer effectiveness mediating these relationships. However, collectivism does not moderate the relationship between environmental awareness and perceived consumer effectiveness. The ANN outcomes align with SEM findings, highlighting the strong predictive capability of environmental awareness and perceived consumer effectiveness. This study offers insights to help practitioners in the airline industry better understand how consumers form intentions to travel with eco-friendly airlines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101347"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Access to public transportation at the regional scale: An analysis of bus services in Minas Gerais State, Brazil
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101348
Elías Gálvez-Arango
Regional public transportation is a critical service that connects rural and urban dwellers to a wide variety of economic, educational, medical, and recreational opportunities outside of their communities. In contrast to the many studies on public transportation access at the local scale, regional-scale studies remain rare, especially in the Global South. To address this knowledge gap, this study examines access to the regional bus system of Minas Gerais state, Brazil via a new index adapted to the minimal data typically available at the regional scale. Within Minas Gerais, major urban areas and some of their neighboring municipalities had the highest levels of bus access. Conversely, 49 of 853 municipalities (5.7%) lacked access to the regional bus system entirely. These inaccessible municipalities had smaller populations and were located on or near state borders, while municipalities with high levels of transportation access tended to have higher population densities, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and concentrations of paved highways. These results confirm that regional bus access is associated with the demographic, economic, infrastructure, and spatial characteristics of municipalities. Ultimately, this study reveals significant disparities in regional bus access throughout Minas Gerais, providing a foundation for further research on transportation accessibility and mobility in Brazil while demonstrating methods suitable for analyzing regional transportation access in low-data contexts around the world.
{"title":"Access to public transportation at the regional scale: An analysis of bus services in Minas Gerais State, Brazil","authors":"Elías Gálvez-Arango","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101348","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101348","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional public transportation is a critical service that connects rural and urban dwellers to a wide variety of economic, educational, medical, and recreational opportunities outside of their communities. In contrast to the many studies on public transportation access at the local scale, regional-scale studies remain rare, especially in the Global South. To address this knowledge gap, this study examines access to the regional bus system of Minas Gerais state, Brazil via a new index adapted to the minimal data typically available at the regional scale. Within Minas Gerais, major urban areas and some of their neighboring municipalities had the highest levels of bus access. Conversely, 49 of 853 municipalities (5.7%) lacked access to the regional bus system entirely. These inaccessible municipalities had smaller populations and were located on or near state borders, while municipalities with high levels of transportation access tended to have higher population densities, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and concentrations of paved highways. These results confirm that regional bus access is associated with the demographic, economic, infrastructure, and spatial characteristics of municipalities. Ultimately, this study reveals significant disparities in regional bus access throughout Minas Gerais, providing a foundation for further research on transportation accessibility and mobility in Brazil while demonstrating methods suitable for analyzing regional transportation access in low-data contexts around the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101348"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A systematic review of the pollution and health impacts of low emission zones
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101340
Stan Broster, Kathryn Terzano
Air pollution is one of the most significant issues that urban areas face, with 7 million mortalities worldwide each year as a result (UN, 2023). Different policies have been introduced to mitigate the emissions of harmful pollutants through a variety of means, including Low Emission Zones (LEZs), which have been introduced in cities to reduce the number of journeys made by highly polluting vehicles. This study uses two robust regression models to answer two research questions related to the key metrics of pollutant concentrations and long-term health benefits following LEZ implementations. The two pollutants, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5), were examined with the “openair” software in R, which is used to analyse trends in air pollution. The impact that different policies have on several health metrics were also examined through data collated from literature reviews. The results obtained after analysing London’s LEZ (2008) and ULEZ (2019) were then used to evaluate the viability of Manchester’s Clean Air Plan. The results show that there is statistically significant evidence of LEZs curbing pollution levels, which in turn contributes to long-term health benefits. It is concluded that the current trajectory of Manchester’s air pollution policy, which falls short of having an LEZ, is likely not impactful enough on pollutant concentrations and health, especially in relation to PM2.5 levels. Future research at planned time intervals is suggested for modelling the extent of the impact of Manchester’s Clean Air Plan. However, results demonstrate the importance of curving harmful pollutants, which should be taken into consideration by policy makers in other cities as well.
{"title":"A systematic review of the pollution and health impacts of low emission zones","authors":"Stan Broster,&nbsp;Kathryn Terzano","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air pollution is one of the most significant issues that urban areas face, with 7 million mortalities worldwide each year as a result (<span><span>UN, 2023</span></span>). Different policies have been introduced to mitigate the emissions of harmful pollutants through a variety of means, including Low Emission Zones (LEZs), which have been introduced in cities to reduce the number of journeys made by highly polluting vehicles. This study uses two robust regression models to answer two research questions related to the key metrics of pollutant concentrations and long-term health benefits following LEZ implementations. The two pollutants, Nitrogen Dioxide (N<em>O</em><sub>2</sub>) and Fine Particulate Matter (<em>PM</em><sub>2.5</sub>), were examined with the “openair” software in R, which is used to analyse trends in air pollution. The impact that different policies have on several health metrics were also examined through data collated from literature reviews. The results obtained after analysing London’s LEZ (2008) and ULEZ (2019) were then used to evaluate the viability of Manchester’s Clean Air Plan. The results show that there is statistically significant evidence of LEZs curbing pollution levels, which in turn contributes to long-term health benefits. It is concluded that the current trajectory of Manchester’s air pollution policy, which falls short of having an LEZ, is likely not impactful enough on pollutant concentrations and health, especially in relation to <em>PM</em><sub>2.5</sub> levels. Future research at planned time intervals is suggested for modelling the extent of the impact of Manchester’s Clean Air Plan. However, results demonstrate the importance of curving harmful pollutants, which should be taken into consideration by policy makers in other cities as well.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101340"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Swiss highway project cost estimate performance: Deviations from norms and expected trends
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101344
David Zani, Bryan T. Adey
Cost overruns in construction projects are a common issue internationally, and project cost performance in individual countries varies considerably. Countries that lack systematic project data may rely on foreign data for informing cost estimating practices and norms, which may lead to errors. This study considered the case of Switzerland, a country with limited research on construction project cost performance. Swiss highway construction projects were analysed to assess the accuracy of cost estimating methods and norms. Different factors influencing cost overruns were considered: project size, type, planning duration, start year, and historical policy changes. The results revealed that the general patterns of cost overruns observed internationally do not apply to Switzerland: projects tend to overrun estimated costs during the planning phase but underrun during the construction phase, leading to accurate overall cost estimates (4.7% median overrun). Projects exhibited large and asymmetrical cost accuracy ranges throughout the planning and construction phases. These results deviate from expectations set in norms and comparable international project data. Based on these findings, the study challenges the effectiveness of current Swiss cost estimating norms, suggesting a need for more country-specific data analysis and policy development.
{"title":"Swiss highway project cost estimate performance: Deviations from norms and expected trends","authors":"David Zani,&nbsp;Bryan T. Adey","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cost overruns in construction projects are a common issue internationally, and project cost performance in individual countries varies considerably. Countries that lack systematic project data may rely on foreign data for informing cost estimating practices and norms, which may lead to errors. This study considered the case of Switzerland, a country with limited research on construction project cost performance. Swiss highway construction projects were analysed to assess the accuracy of cost estimating methods and norms. Different factors influencing cost overruns were considered: project size, type, planning duration, start year, and historical policy changes. The results revealed that the general patterns of cost overruns observed internationally do not apply to Switzerland: projects tend to overrun estimated costs during the planning phase but underrun during the construction phase, leading to accurate overall cost estimates (4.7% median overrun). Projects exhibited large and asymmetrical cost accuracy ranges throughout the planning and construction phases. These results deviate from expectations set in norms and comparable international project data. Based on these findings, the study challenges the effectiveness of current Swiss cost estimating norms, suggesting a need for more country-specific data analysis and policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101344"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to calculate GHG emissions in freight transport? A review of the main existing online tools
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101343
Erika Olivari , Claudia Caballini , Xavier Lluch
About 23 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the transportation sector. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development freight transport-related demand in 2050 is expected to triple compared to the values recorded in 2019. In order to comply with regulations that aim to meet precise targets in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to objectively measure the impact of transportation activities with the aim of mitigating emissions. To do this, it is mandatory to have accurate and user-friendly calculation tools. The purpose of this paper is to compare the most widely used tools to assess CO2e transport emissions in transportation, also comparing them to the GLEC methodology, which is compliant with ISO regulations universally recognized as the most appropriate procedure. 3 case studies related to intermodal transport scenarios are assessed and compared using the considered tools. Based on the analyses performed, this research finally proposes some recommendations for reliable calculation of CO2e emissions, in compliance with ISO 14083.
{"title":"How to calculate GHG emissions in freight transport? A review of the main existing online tools","authors":"Erika Olivari ,&nbsp;Claudia Caballini ,&nbsp;Xavier Lluch","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>About 23 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the transportation sector. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development freight transport-related demand in 2050 is expected to triple compared to the values recorded in 2019. In order to comply with regulations that aim to meet precise targets in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to objectively measure the impact of transportation activities with the aim of mitigating emissions. To do this, it is mandatory to have accurate and user-friendly calculation tools. The purpose of this paper is to compare the most widely used tools to assess CO<sub>2</sub>e transport emissions in transportation, also comparing them to the GLEC methodology, which is compliant with ISO regulations universally recognized as the most appropriate procedure. 3 case studies related to intermodal transport scenarios are assessed and compared using the considered tools. Based on the analyses performed, this research finally proposes some recommendations for reliable calculation of CO<sub>2</sub>e emissions, in compliance with ISO 14083.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 101343"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Game Theory-Based shore power Analysis: From the perspective of policy makers
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101341
Suyang Wang , Xuejun Feng , Yiqiang Peng , Haipeng Wang , Yan Zhang
With growing concerns about ship emissions in port areas, access to shore power for berthed ships has become a critical component of green shipping initiatives. However, conflicting stakeholder interests pose challenges to the construction and promotion of shore power infrastructure. This paper analyzes the behavioral strategies of governments, port operators, and shipping companies by developing game models for these actors under three different policy scenarios: government non-intervention, mandatory measures such as emission taxes, and government subsidies. To quantify the impact of ship emissions on these interactions, an exhaust emission calculation model for berthed ships is developed based on the STEAM2 model and a localized database of emission correction factors for inland areas. The container terminal at Nanjing Port Longtan Harbor is used as a case study, where ship exhaust emissions are monetized as a social cost, taking into account the socio-economic context of the region. The findings indicate that under scenarios of government non-intervention and emission taxes, equilibrium strategies do not achieve optimal socio-economic benefits for the government. In contrast, under a subsidy policy, a well-calibrated subsidy can align the interests of the government, port operators and shipping companies to facilitate the implementation of shore power projects. This study provides valuable decision support for government policies related to shore power infrastructure.
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Case Studies on Transport Policy
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