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Travel behaviour transformations in Indonesia: Assessing the long-term impact of COVID-19 on mobility patterns 印度尼西亚的出行行为转变:评估 COVID-19 对流动模式的长期影响
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101267

This study examined the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on mobility patterns in Indonesia, focusing on the transition from pre-pandemic norms to the endemic phase. Using quantitative methods and retrospective data analysis, we explored changes in travel behaviour, including mode choice, trip frequency, and travel time. We identified travel behaviour in three phases: pre-pandemic, pandemic (March 2020 to the end of January 2022), and transition to endemic (the data collection period: July – August 2022). Our investigation of the shifts in travel behaviour across these periods enabled us to distinguish between temporary fluctuations and enduring, potentially long-term changes in behaviour. The empirical investigation revealed significant alterations in trip frequency that persisted during the endemic phase, suggesting that these changes in mobility are likely to continue. Factors influencing these shifts include socioeconomic characteristics, work modalities, and attitudes toward health protocols. This study contributes to the understanding of pandemic-induced travel behaviour transformations and provides insights for policymakers and transportation planners to adapt to these changes in the Southeast Asian context.

本研究探讨了 COVID-19 大流行对印度尼西亚人口流动模式的长期影响,重点关注从大流行前规范到大流行阶段的过渡。我们采用定量方法和回顾性数据分析,探讨了出行行为的变化,包括模式选择、出行频率和出行时间。我们确定了三个阶段的旅行行为:流行前、流行期(2020 年 3 月至 2022 年 1 月底)和向流行期过渡(数据收集期:2022 年 7 月至 8 月)。我们对这些阶段中旅行行为变化的调查使我们能够区分暂时的波动和持久的、潜在的长期行为变化。实证调查显示,旅行频率的显著变化在疾病流行阶段依然存在,这表明流动性的这些变化可能会持续下去。影响这些变化的因素包括社会经济特征、工作方式和对健康协议的态度。这项研究有助于人们理解大流行病引发的出行行为转变,并为政策制定者和交通规划者在东南亚环境下适应这些变化提供启示。
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引用次数: 0
Congestion charging and factors that determine the willingness to pay for congestion reduction in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴市的拥堵收费和决定为减少拥堵付费意愿的因素
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101265

Over the last two decades and a half, the Ethiopian government has been involved in extensive road construction as part of successive road development plans that have significantly increased road network coverage. However, the tendencies that worsen congestion show no signs of abating. As a result, drivers and passengers waste time in long traffic lines, rendering modern travel unreliable and increasing travel costs due to delays. To curb the problem, the remedies proposed by practitioners or researchers are mostly centred on the supply side. This study aims to determine drivers’ willingness to pay (WTP) (from the demand side) for a hypothetical congestion reduction project. A stated preference survey was utilised on the population identified in nine segments in Addis Ababa’s Kolfe Keraniyo sub-city. The data was gathered from 1012 respondents using a survey questionnaire based on the contingent valuation method (CVM). Tobit and Heckman two-step selection models were used to estimate factors determining WTP for congestion reduction. Accordingly, the analysis showed that the average amount of willingness to pay by drivers was estimated to be birr 2.7 ($0.05) per km. Education, marital status, income, segment use, and trip frequency significantly determined the outcome equation, while age, gender, income, occupation, work experience, and regularity and frequency of segment use were found to determine the decision to participate in WTP to accept congestion pricing. Identifying the willingness to pay and the desired price can assist the Addis Ababa City Administration in establishing a baseline for any future congestion reduction strategy based on congestion pricing.

在过去的二十五年里,埃塞俄比亚政府参与了大量的道路建设,作为连续道路发展计划的一部分,这些计划大大增加了道路网络的覆盖范围。然而,加剧交通拥堵的趋势并没有减弱的迹象。因此,司机和乘客在漫长的车流中浪费时间,使现代出行变得不可靠,并因延误而增加了旅行成本。为了遏制这一问题,从业人员或研究人员提出的补救措施大多集中在供给方面。本研究旨在确定驾驶员(从需求方)对假定的减少拥堵项目的支付意愿(WTP)。对亚的斯亚贝巴 Kolfe Keraniyo 子城市九个区段的人口进行了陈述偏好调查。使用基于或然估值法(CVM)的调查问卷,从 1012 名受访者中收集了数据。采用 Tobit 和 Heckman 两步选择模型估算了决定减少拥堵 WTP 的因素。分析结果表明,司机的平均支付意愿估计为每公里 2.7 比尔(0.05 美元)。教育程度、婚姻状况、收入、分段使用和出行频率对结果方程有显著决定作用,而年龄、性别、收入、职业、工作经验、分段使用的规律性和频率则决定了是否参与WTP以接受拥堵定价。确定支付意愿和期望价格可帮助亚的斯亚贝巴市政府为未来任何基于拥堵定价的减少拥堵战略确定基线。
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引用次数: 0
Kampala land passengers transportation planning: Examining consumer behavior through a bottom-up lens 坎帕拉陆路客运规划:从自下而上的视角审视消费者行为
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101264

In response to the imperatives outlined in SDGs 7, 11, and 13 and the Paris Agreement, folks increasingly focus on transportation to mitigate climate change. Uganda’s capital, Kampala, lacks ratified passenger land transportation plans. This study employs the KLAP-TIMES model, a bottom-up engineering framework, to examine Kampala commuters’ behaviors using three scenarios. Leveraging TIMES-VEDA, the study explores a baseline scenario (BAU) without time travel financial (TTF) limitations or distinctive Value of Travel Time (VTT) levels but with model permissions for competition among dissimilar trip modes, technologies, and fuels, a Kampala Accessibility and Priority Options (KAPO) Scenario with specific VTT levels under TTF limitations, and the Kampala Sustainable scenario (KSS), with a 50% carbon emissions bargain in the system by 2060, contingent upon the persistence of VTT and TTF over the planning horizon. The study utilizes the VTT purposively to measure infrastructure investments as a policy shock on travel time. By exogenously inputting travel demand, the model elucidates the endogenous preferences of individual commuters among various trip modes, including Boda-boda, Kampala sedans, and mass rapid transit (MRT) with an electrified Metro at its core, for both short—and long-distance journeys. The findings reveal significant shifts in consumer behavior, particularly in the Kampala Sustainable scenario, where commuters prefer the electrified Kampala Metro for both short—and long-distance travel, signaling a notable departure from traditional Kampala sedan usage. The study suggests prioritizing the value of travel time (VTT) alongside a carbon reduction trajectory (KSS) is a strategic route for sustainable mobility in Kampala. The study provides valuable insight to policymakers, aiding them in formulating and enacting transportation policies that effectively support Kampala’s sustainability objectives.

为了响应可持续发展目标 7、11 和 13 以及《巴黎协定》中提出的要求,人们越来越重视通过交通来减缓气候变化。乌干达首都坎帕拉缺乏经批准的陆路客运计划。本研究采用 KLAP-TIMES 模型(一种自下而上的工程框架),通过三种方案对坎帕拉通勤者的行为进行研究。利用 TIMES-VEDA 模型,该研究探讨了没有时间旅行财务(TTF)限制或独特旅行时间价值(VTT)水平的基线情景(BAU),但模型允许不同旅行模式、技术和燃料之间进行竞争、坎帕拉可达性和优先选择方案(KAPO)情景,在 TTF 限制下具有特定的 VTT 水平;以及坎帕拉可持续情景(KSS),到 2060 年,系统中的碳排放量将减少 50%,这取决于 VTT 和 TTF 在规划期内的持续性。本研究特意使用 VTT 来衡量基础设施投资对旅行时间的政策冲击。通过外生输入出行需求,该模型阐明了个体通勤者对各种出行方式的内生偏好,包括短途和长途旅行中的 Boda-boda、坎帕拉轿车和以电气化地铁为核心的大众快速交通(MRT)。研究结果揭示了消费者行为的重大转变,尤其是在坎帕拉可持续发展方案中,乘客在短途和长途旅行中都更青睐电气化的坎帕拉地铁,这表明与传统的坎帕拉轿车使用方式明显不同。研究表明,优先考虑旅行时间价值(VTT)和碳减排轨迹(KSS)是实现坎帕拉可持续交通的战略路线。这项研究为决策者提供了宝贵的见解,有助于他们制定和颁布有效支持坎帕拉可持续发展目标的交通政策。
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引用次数: 0
Performance analysis for a maritime port with high-frequency services: an Italian case study 高频服务海运港口的性能分析:意大利案例研究
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101263

The increasing demand at maritime traffic nodes in multi-modal transport emerges as a critical factor for the country’s economy. Consequently, terminal operators should focus on proper strategies and policies to satisfy the increasing demand. This paper exploits the integration of Information Communications Technology systems into physical infrastructures and offers an in-depth study of operations and performance optimisation for a maritime terminal. The case study is the Messina-Tremestieri port (Sicily, South Italy), characterised by a high flow of cars and freight vehicles. This port is in the comprehensive Trans-European Transport Network, and it links Sicily Island with Italy, offering high-frequency services. About 30% of the goods by Ro-Ro services pass through this port: so, it makes sense to use it as a case study. The arrivals distribution, the terminal capacity and the supply offered by the shipping companies are considered input, and terminal efficiency is evaluated through indicators such as the saturation of the yard area and the average vessel load factor. Besides, the study offers two viable solutions to the emerging port saturation. First, a tactical policy (with no infrastructural costs) includes the introduction of flexible time windows. Alternatively, the introduction of additional vessel services has been evaluated during peak hours. Benefits have been simulated by comparing the total number of vehicles served in current and simulated scenarios.

在多式联运中,海上交通节点的需求日益增长,成为国家经济的关键因素。因此,码头运营商应关注适当的战略和政策,以满足日益增长的需求。本文利用信息通信技术系统与实体基础设施的整合,对一个海运码头的运营和性能优化进行了深入研究。案例研究对象是墨西拿-特雷梅斯特里港口(意大利南部西西里岛),其特点是汽车和货运车辆流量大。该港口位于泛欧运输网络中,连接西西里岛和意大利,提供高频率服务。约有 30% 的滚装货物通过该港口:因此,将其作为一个案例进行研究是很有意义的。到港货物分布、码头容量和船运公司提供的货源都被视为输入因素,码头效率则通过堆场饱和度和船舶平均装载率等指标进行评估。此外,研究还针对新出现的港口饱和问题提出了两个可行的解决方案。首先,战术政策(无基础设施成本)包括引入灵活的时间窗口。另外,还评估了在高峰时段引入额外船舶服务的方案。通过比较现有方案和模拟方案中服务的车辆总数,模拟了效益。
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引用次数: 0
Strategies to overcome constraints in the vehicle fill rate of road freight transport for FMCG sector 克服快速消费品行业公路货运车辆满载率制约因素的战略
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101261

The FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector is the fourth largest sector in India, significantly contributing to the economy by driving the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and enhancing employment opportunities. In India, most of the transportation of FMCG goods is dependent on road freight transport only hence the vehicle fill rate is gaining importance day by day. The vehicle fill rate is adversely influenced by various constraints including weight & load limits, variability in truck carrying capacity, etc. that further influence the performance of road freight transport, resulting in high transportation costs. Various strategies are required to overcome the constraints which will help optimize transportation costs for the FMCG sector in India. This study identified 32 solutions with Fuzzy TOPSIS (Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) employed for ranking of the solutions. Transport policy is identified as one of the top solutions, which plays a vital role in improving vehicle fill rate in the long run. Implementation of the solutions according to the need and rank may help the decision-makers and policymakers to achieve enhanced performance in road transport, compete globally, and contribute to the economy as well as the environment.

快速消费品(FMCG)行业是印度的第四大行业,通过推动国内生产总值(GDP)增长和增加就业机会,对印度经济做出了重大贡献。在印度,大部分快速消费品的运输仅依赖于公路货运,因此车辆满载率的重要性与日俱增。车辆满载率受到各种限制因素的不利影响,其中包括重量限制、装载限制、卡车运载能力的变化等,这些因素进一步影响了公路货物运输的性能,导致运输成本居高不下。需要采取各种策略来克服制约因素,这将有助于优化印度快速消费品行业的运输成本。这项研究确定了 32 个解决方案,并采用模糊 TOPSIS(通过与理想解决方案的相似性进行排序的模糊技术)对解决方案进行排序。运输政策被认为是最重要的解决方案之一,从长远来看,它在提高车辆满载率方面起着至关重要的作用。根据需求和排序实施解决方案可帮助决策者和政策制定者提高道路运输绩效,参与全球竞争,并为经济和环境做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Short and mid-term effect of the streetcar on vehicle-vehicle (and vehicle-pedestrian) crash rate on the adjacent street 有轨电车对邻近街道车辆与车辆(以及车辆与行人)碰撞率的短期和中期影响
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101262

Introduction

Introducing new public transit systems impacts the surrounding built environment, and changes in the built environment can affect travel behavior. Prior research has yet to thoroughly conduct a comprehensive exploration of the influence of new investments in public modes of transit, particularly streetcars, on motor vehicle crashes occurring on adjoining streets, considering other related factors. In particular, the difference between short-term and mid-term impacts of streetcars considering initial break-in periods has yet to be thoroughly conducted. This study focuses on the short-term and mid-term effects of the streetcar on total, injury, and pedestrian-involved vehicle crash rates on the adjacent street, considering traffic volume, traffic speeds, and traffic conflicts (transit ridership, pedestrian volume, and traffic policy).

Data & Method

This paper used the Utah Department of Transportation’s (UDOT) crash count, annual average daily traffic (AADT), iPeMS data, Utah Transit Authority’s (UTA) ridership, manually calculated pedestrian volume from Google Street View, and conducted interviews with UDOT’s experts. In the method, we used three quasi-experimental research designs: (1) before-after without a control group, (2) interrupted time series, and (3) before-after with a control group. In addition, to identify the cause of this impact, we examined multiple dimensions, including traffic volume, traffic speeds, transit ridership, pedestrian volume, and adjustments in traffic policy changes.

Results

As a result, the establishment of the S-Line streetcar eventually led to a significant decrease in total (short: 11 %, mid: −15 %), injury (short: −9%, mid: −41 %), and pedestrian-involved (short: −25 %, mid: −43 %) crash rates on the adjacent street, especially after the streetcar was fully established (3 years after). In particular, injury and pedestrian-involved crash rates decreased significantly. Also, we found that increased drivers’ awareness and vitality of the street due to the increased transit ridership (short: 43 %, mid: 50 %), increased pedestrian volume (short: 35 %, mid: 75 %), and improvement of traffic signal on the adjacent street can be the main causes.

Practical Applications

The outcomes of this study are considered to help establish short-term and mid-term traffic policies that consider public transit improvements such as streetcars.

导言引入新的公共交通系统会影响周围的建筑环境,而建筑环境的变化会影响人们的出行行为。之前的研究尚未深入全面地探讨新投资的公共交通方式(尤其是有轨电车)对邻近街道上发生的机动车碰撞事故的影响,也未考虑其他相关因素。特别是,考虑到初期磨合期,有轨电车的短期和中期影响之间的差异尚未得到深入研究。本研究的重点是有轨电车对相邻街道的总碰撞率、受伤碰撞率和行人碰撞率的短期和中期影响,同时考虑交通流量、交通速度和交通冲突(公交乘客、行人数量和交通政策)。数据和方法本文使用了犹他州交通部(UDOT)的碰撞计数、年平均日交通量(AADT)、iPeMS 数据、犹他州交通局(UTA)的乘客量、谷歌街景手动计算的行人量,并对 UDOT 的专家进行了访谈。在研究方法上,我们采用了三种准实验研究设计:(1)无对照组的前后对比研究;(2)中断时间序列研究;(3)有对照组的前后对比研究。此外,为了找出造成这种影响的原因,我们从多个维度进行了研究,包括交通量、交通速度、公交乘客量、行人量以及交通政策变化的调整。结果S线有轨电车的建成最终导致邻近街道的总碰撞率(短:11%,中:-15%)、伤害碰撞率(短:-9%,中:-41%)和行人碰撞率(短:-25%,中:-43%)显著下降,尤其是在有轨电车完全建成后(3年后)。其中,受伤和涉及行人的交通事故率明显下降。此外,我们还发现,由于公交乘客数量增加(短期:43%,中期:50%)、行人数量增加(短期:35%,中期:75%)以及邻近街道交通信号的改善,驾驶员对街道的认知度和活力也有所提高,这可能是主要原因。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer attitudes and preferences for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: A case of Delhi and Kolkata, India 消费者对插电式混合动力电动汽车的态度和偏好:印度德里和加尔各答案例
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101259

In the push for passenger transportation electrification, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) serve as a suitable bridge towards sustainable transportation, especially in settings marked by rapid urbanization and socio-economic variations, such as India. Compared to conventional vehicles, PHEVs can offer distinct advantages, but Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) often overshadow their potential. Addressing the dearth of PHEV-specific research, this study investigates consumer attitudes and preferences for PHEVs in two Indian megacities: Delhi and Kolkata. Using a three-step method on attitudinal and stated preference data from 415 (Delhi) and 500 (Kolkata) car-owners, the study segmented consumers employing factor and cluster analyses, revealing dominant groups such as the ’actively concerned’, which merges consumers with technological enthusiasm and environmental awareness. Mixed logit models further unveil consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for various PHEV attributes. Notably, Delhi consumers exhibited 56 % more WTP for Advanced Vehicle Technology (AVT) options compared to their Kolkata counterparts. While Delhi consumers prioritized battery range, battery warranty, and recharging time, Kolkata consumers emphasized emission reduction. Sensitivity analysis revealed price as a dominant adoption barrier, suggesting subsidies could enhance PHEV uptake. This research highlights diverse PHEV preferences across Indian cities, underscoring the need for city-specific policy interventions.

在推动客运电气化的过程中,插电式混合动力电动汽车(PHEV)是实现可持续交通的合适桥梁,尤其是在印度等城市化快速发展和社会经济不断变化的环境中。与传统汽车相比,PHEV 具有明显的优势,但电池电动汽车(BEV)往往掩盖了其潜力。针对 PHEV 专项研究的缺乏,本研究调查了印度两个特大城市消费者对 PHEV 的态度和偏好:德里和加尔各答。研究采用三步法对 415 名(德里)和 500 名(加尔各答)车主的态度和陈述偏好数据进行了分析,并利用因子和聚类分析对消费者进行了细分,揭示了 "积极关注 "等占主导地位的群体,这些群体融合了消费者的技术热情和环保意识。混合对数模型进一步揭示了消费者对 PHEV 各种属性的支付意愿(WTP)。值得注意的是,德里消费者对先进汽车技术(AVT)选项的支付意愿比加尔各答消费者高出 56%。德里消费者优先考虑电池续航能力、电池保修和充电时间,而加尔各答消费者则强调减排。敏感性分析显示,价格是主要的采用障碍,这表明补贴可以提高 PHEV 的采用率。这项研究凸显了印度各城市对 PHEV 的不同偏好,强调了针对具体城市进行政策干预的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Energy efficiency analysis of heavy goods vehicles in road transportation: The case of Morocco 公路运输中重型货运车辆的能源效率分析:摩洛哥案例
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101260

Passenger and freight transport are central to the socio-economic development of countries and urban life. Their enormous consumption of fossil fuels is problematic. It is essential to improve the efficiency and sustainability of this industry, especially in road transport. This paper assesses the heavy goods vehicles (trucks), as a specific segment of road transport, in Morocco from an energy standpoint. For this purpose, a methodology called DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) was adopted to systematically define problems, measure the current state, analyze data to identify inefficiencies, as well as implement and monitor improvements for sustainable performance in this sector. The findings show that Moroccan trucks have significant sustainability gaps, characterized, mainly, by high fossil fuel consumption resulting in high exhaust emissions. The promotion of alternative powertrains such as hybrid, electric and fuel cell vehicles offer promising opportunities to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Although these alternative powertrains have the potential to improve operational performance over traditional diesel models in Morocco, several challenges need to be addressed for their widespread uptake.

客运和货运是国家社会经济发展和城市生活的核心。它们对化石燃料的巨大消耗是个问题。提高该行业,尤其是公路运输的效率和可持续性至关重要。本文从能源角度评估了摩洛哥公路运输中的重型货运车辆(卡车)。为此,本文采用了一种名为 DMAIC(定义、测量、分析、改进和控制)的方法来系统地定义问题、测量现状、分析数据以确定效率低下的问题,以及实施和监测改进措施,以实现该行业的可持续绩效。研究结果表明,摩洛哥卡车在可持续发展方面存在巨大差距,主要特点是化石燃料消耗量大,导致废气排放量高。推广替代动力系统,如混合动力车、电动车和燃料电池车,为减少石油消耗和温室气体排放提供了大有可为的机会。在摩洛哥,虽然这些替代动力系统有可能比传统柴油车型提高运行性能,但要广泛采用这些动力系统,还需要应对若干挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of motorways and public transport construction on residents’ satisfaction with neighbourhoods 高速公路和公共交通建设对居民街区满意度的影响
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101251

Transport infrastructures serve as pathways to employment, amenities, and services, contributing to the economic development of societies and the broader landscape. Development projects are usually measured on economic metrics; however, they can have short-term and long-term impacts on wellbeing due to disruptions during construction and changes in accessibility after construction. This study investigates the impact of transport construction projects on the residents’ satisfaction with surrounding neighbourhoods. This study uses the longitudinal survey of Household Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) from 2002 to 2019 to monitor and model satisfaction with neighbourhoods for residents living in the vicinity of 11 major transport construction projects in Sydney, Australia. The variations in residents’ satisfaction with neighbourhoods are investigated at macro and micro levels. At the macro level, average satisfaction before during and after construction are compared against each other. At the micro level, two random effect ordered logit models are developed to explain satisfaction while controlling for residents’ sociodemographic attributes and major life events. Both highway and underground projects have been shown to improve overall satisfaction among all residents. However, during the construction phase for underground, satisfaction with neighbourhoods tends to decrease. The highway projects exhibit a positive effect on residents even during the construction phase, with a higher positive effect for permanent residents.

交通基础设施是通往就业、便利设施和服务的途径,有助于社会的经济发展和更广泛的景观。开发项目通常以经济指标为衡量标准,但由于施工期间的干扰和施工后交通便利性的变化,这些项目可能会对福利产生短期和长期影响。本研究调查了交通建设项目对周边居民满意度的影响。本研究利用 2002 年至 2019 年期间的澳大利亚家庭收入和劳动力动态(HILDA)纵向调查,对澳大利亚悉尼 11 个主要交通建设项目附近居民的邻里满意度进行监测和建模。研究从宏观和微观两个层面探讨了居民对社区满意度的变化。在宏观层面上,对施工前和施工后的平均满意度进行了比较。在微观层面,建立了两个随机效应有序 Logit 模型来解释满意度,同时控制居民的社会人口属性和主要生活事件。事实证明,公路和地下工程都能提高所有居民的整体满意度。然而,在地下工程的施工阶段,居民对社区的满意度往往会下降。公路项目即使在施工阶段也对居民产生了积极影响,对常住居民的积极影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the effect of driving restrictions on fine particulate matter concentrations with WRF-Chem model: A case study in Kaifeng, China 利用 WRF-Chem 模型量化限行措施对细颗粒物浓度的影响:中国开封案例研究
IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101258
Feng Wang , Haopeng Zhang , Xiaoyang Li , Xutong Ru , Hongquan Song

One of the significant sources of urban air particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) has been found to be vehicle exhaust emission. Vehicle restriction measures have been taken to alleviate particulate matter pollution in the world. Here, we quantified the impact of vehicle restriction measures on the PM2.5 concentrations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in Kaifeng, China. This study set up three different scenarios to simulate the spatiotemporal changes of PM2.5 concentrations in four seasons in 2020. They were no emission reduction (S0), the restriction of two tailing license plate numbers (S1), and the restriction of odd–even tailing numbers of license plates (S2), respectively. In general, the odd–even license plate restriction policy has proven to be more effective than restricting two specific license plate numbers. In scenario S1, the range of PM2.5 concentrations reduction in Kaifeng City was between 0.2% and 1.28%. In scenario S2, the range of PM2.5 concentrations reduction was between 0.98% and 14.42%. The results showed that the effectiveness of vehicle restriction measures varies from season to season, and the effect in summer and winter is better than that in spring and autumn. We suggest that it may be difficult to reduce the PM2.5 concentrations to a great extent if simply reducing the traffic exhaust emissions through motor vehicle restrictions, on the contrary, would lead to the increase of O3 concentration, bringing some other effects. This study can serve as a foundation for the rational development of motor vehicle control strategies and help advance the ongoing improvement of air quality.

汽车尾气排放是城市空气颗粒物(PM2.5 和 PM10)的重要来源之一。世界各国纷纷采取汽车限行措施来缓解颗粒物污染。在此,我们利用中国开封的化学气象研究和预报模型(WRF-Chem)量化了汽车限行措施对 PM2.5 浓度的影响。本研究设定了三种不同的情景来模拟2020年四季PM2.5浓度的时空变化。分别为不减排(S0)、限两尾号(S1)和限奇偶尾号(S2)。总体而言,事实证明奇偶车牌限制政策比限制两个特定车牌号更有效。在方案 S1 中,开封市 PM2.5 浓度的下降范围在 0.2% 到 1.28% 之间。在方案 S2 中,PM2.5 浓度的下降范围在 0.98% 到 14.42% 之间。结果表明,车辆限行措施的效果因季节而异,夏季和冬季的效果优于春季和秋季。我们认为,如果单纯通过机动车限行措施减少交通尾气排放,可能难以大幅度降低 PM2.5 浓度,反而会导致 O3 浓度上升,带来其他一些影响。本研究可作为合理制定机动车控制策略的基础,有助于推进空气质量的持续改善。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Case Studies on Transport Policy
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