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Taiwan’s pilot organization and the path to reform 台湾的试点组织和改革路径
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101713
Wen-Ning Chang
Taiwan’s pilotage system plays a critical role in ensuring maritime safety, yet its regulatory framework contains significant institutional deficiencies. Although the Pilotage Law and the Regulations for Administering Pilots assign operational responsibilities to pilot offices, they lack clear provisions regarding the legal status, authority, and accountability of these entities. This ambiguity has resulted in weak oversight, reduced professional accountability, and barriers to effective regulatory reform. The undefined nature of pilot offices raises practical and legal concerns, particularly in areas such as performance supervision, internal governance, and legal liability. This article examines the structural and legal shortcomings of Taiwan’s pilotage governance by analyzing relevant legislation and administrative practices. It also draws comparative insights from five foreign pilotage systems (the United States, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and China) and three domestic professional associations (attorneys, CPAs, and physicians) to highlight viable institutional models. This research demonstrates the need for a statutory framework that clearly defines the legal identity and responsibilities of pilot offices. The article concludes by offering recommendations for reform that would strengthen institutional legitimacy, improve transparency, and align Taiwan’s pilotage system with contemporary standards in maritime governance.
台湾的引航制度在确保海上安全方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但其监管框架却存在着重大的制度缺陷。虽然《引航法》和《引航员管理条例》规定了引航员办公室的业务责任,但它们缺乏关于这些实体的法律地位、权力和责任的明确规定。这种模糊性导致了监管不力、专业问责制减少以及有效监管改革的障碍。试点办事处的不明确性质引起了实际和法律方面的关切,特别是在业绩监督、内部治理和法律责任等领域。本文通过对台湾引航治理相关立法和行政实践的分析,探讨台湾引航治理在结构和法律上的缺陷。本文还借鉴了五个外国引航制度(美国、日本、新加坡、英国和中国)和三个国内专业协会(律师、注册会计师和医生)的比较见解,以突出可行的制度模式。这项研究表明,需要一个法律框架,明确界定试点办事处的法律身份和责任。文章最后提出了改革建议,以加强制度的合法性,提高透明度,并使台湾的引航制度与当代海事治理标准保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Railway liberalization and efficiency: Incumbents vs. Entrants in Austria and Czechia 铁路自由化和效率:奥地利和捷克的现有者与进入者
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101710
Marek Vokoun , František Stellner , Tomáš Nigrin , Jan Neugebauer
This study evaluates the scale efficiency (SE) of passenger railway operators in Austria and Czechia between 2015 and 2019, aiming to understand the impact of liberalization on sectoral performance. Using an input-oriented Slack-Based Measure (SBM) Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model under Variable Returns to Scale (VRS), the research analyzed financial and operational data from ORBIS and MagnusWeb databases for both incumbent and non-incumbent companies. Results reveal a consistent pattern: national incumbents, ÖBB Personenverkehr AG (Austria) and České dráhy, a.s. (Czechia), exhibited significant and persistent scale inefficiencies, averaging 35.39% and 51.54% SE respectively. This indicates they operate below their optimal scale, likely due to decreasing returns to scale. In stark contrast, several private and regional operators in both countries consistently achieved perfect or near-perfect SE, demonstrating optimal alignment with the Most Productive Scale Size (MPSS). For example, CityRail, RegioJet (Czechia), Montafonerbahn AG, and WESTbahn Management GmbH (Austria) maintained 100% SE. While Austria’s overall sector showed higher average efficiency and resilience due to a broader base of well-performing non-incumbents, the Czech sector exhibited greater volatility among smaller operators, though it showed an improving trend by 2019. The findings suggest that railway liberalization, while fostering efficiency among new entrants, has not uniformly resolved the deep-seated inefficiencies of incumbents. Achieving true sectoral efficiency requires structural reforms beyond mere market access, addressing issues such as governance, subsidies, and regulatory oversight.
本研究评估了奥地利和捷克2015 - 2019年间客运铁路运营商的规模效率(SE),旨在了解自由化对部门绩效的影响。本研究采用可变规模回报(VRS)下以投入为导向的基于松弛测度(SBM)的数据包络分析(DEA)模型,分析了来自ORBIS和MagnusWeb数据库的既有企业和非既有企业的财务和运营数据。结果显示了一致的模式:国家现有企业ÖBB Personenverkehr AG(奥地利)和České dráhy, a.s(捷克)表现出显著和持续的规模效率低下,平均SE分别为35.39%和51.54%。这表明它们的运营低于其最佳规模,可能是由于规模回报减少。与此形成鲜明对比的是,这两个国家的一些私营和地区运营商始终如一地实现了完美或接近完美的SE,证明了与最生产规模尺寸(MPSS)的最佳一致性。例如,CityRail、RegioJet(捷克)、Montafonerbahn AG和WESTbahn Management GmbH(奥地利)保持了100%的SE。虽然奥地利的整体行业表现出更高的平均效率和弹性,因为有更多表现良好的非老牌公司,但捷克的行业在小型运营商中表现出更大的波动性,尽管到2019年呈现出改善的趋势。研究结果表明,铁路自由化虽然促进了新进入者的效率,但并没有统一地解决现有企业根深蒂固的低效率问题。实现真正的部门效率需要结构性改革,而不仅仅是市场准入,还要解决治理、补贴和监管监督等问题。
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引用次数: 0
Toward equity in network design: understanding investment preferences 网络设计中的公平性:理解投资偏好
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101711
Ali Najmi , Maliheh Tabasi , Travis Waller , Taha H. Rashidi
A fair distribution of transport benefits has long been a goal of transport agencies and planners seeking to design networks that advance social inclusion and equity. This paper investigates how ethical orientations shape citizens’ preferences for equity in transport investment. Drawing on a Stated Choice experiment with 2,050 Australian residents, an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable (ICLV) model is developed to capture how these latent ethical constructs influence preferences for key transport investment attributes, including distribution of travel costs, safety, environmental sustainability, and fairness across population groups. The findings reveal that respondents’ moral and empathetic orientations significantly affect their evaluation of equity impacts and that socio-demographic attributes further moderate these relationships. The study provides policy insights for reducing regional and socio-economic disparities in mobility outcomes and promoting more inclusive transport investment decisions, contributing to the design of transport systems that are both efficient and grounded in social justice.
长期以来,交通运输利益的公平分配一直是交通运输机构和规划者寻求设计促进社会包容和公平的网络的目标。本文研究了道德取向如何影响公民对交通投资公平的偏好。根据对2050名澳大利亚居民的陈述选择实验,开发了一个综合选择和潜在变量(ICLV)模型,以捕捉这些潜在的道德结构如何影响关键交通投资属性的偏好,包括旅行成本的分配、安全、环境可持续性和人口群体的公平性。研究发现,被调查者的道德取向和共情取向显著影响他们对公平影响的评价,社会人口属性进一步调节了这些关系。该研究为减少交通成果方面的区域和社会经济差异、促进更具包容性的交通投资决策提供了政策见解,有助于设计既高效又以社会正义为基础的交通系统。
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引用次数: 0
Partial lockdown strategies for suburban trains in Indian Railways 印度铁路郊区列车的部分封锁策略
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101712
Siddhartha Mukhopadhyay, Goutam Sen
While the complete lockdown and closure of Railway transportation help control the spread of highly infectious diseases such as SARS, MERS, Ebola, COVID-19, and Monkeypox, it directly causes distress in people’s lives or indirectly. The study aims to develop a scientific partial lockdown approach to strategize the control of passenger traffic in the suburban train network of the Indian Railways. We use a stochastic agent-based model to understand the trade-off between various traffic levels in a railway network and the state’s health infrastructure. This problem is entirely new in the academic literature, but has gained a lot of importance due to sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases in the recent past. The study uses COVID-19 infection parameters in the Kharagpur-Howrah suburban train route in eastern India and allows various traffic levels for the agent-based simulation. The simulation calculated the impact of the resulting infection caseload due to existing infected people and additional train traffic for the first nine blocks along the route (strategy 1). Using further interventions such as age-specific restrictions, the simulation is redeployed to report the resulting caseloads against the existing healthcare capacity of these blocks (strategy 2). The study reveals that suburban train services in high-traffic areas like Kharagpur-2 increase infection cases by up to 0.77% among vulnerable populations. However, blocks with meager traffic, like Kolaghat, have meager variation. Age-wise movement restrictions, such as restricting children and citizens over 60, reduce caseloads. The optimal traffic levels for Kharagpur-2 were 40% and 50% compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, based on healthcare availability data.
全面封锁和关闭铁路运输,在有利于控制非典、中东呼吸综合征、埃博拉、新冠肺炎、猴痘等高传染性疾病传播的同时,也会直接或间接给人民群众带来生活上的困扰。该研究旨在开发一种科学的部分封锁方法,以制定控制印度铁路郊区铁路网络客运的战略。我们使用基于随机主体的模型来理解铁路网络中不同交通水平与国家卫生基础设施之间的权衡。这个问题在学术文献中是全新的,但由于最近传染病的突然爆发而变得非常重要。该研究使用了印度东部Kharagpur-Howrah郊区火车路线的COVID-19感染参数,并允许各种交通水平进行基于代理的模拟。模拟计算了由于现有感染者和路线前9个街区的额外火车交通而产生的感染病例量的影响(策略1)。使用诸如特定年龄限制等进一步干预措施,重新部署模拟,以报告根据这些街区现有医疗保健能力得出的病例量(策略2)。该研究表明,在像Kharagpur-2这样的高流量地区,郊区列车服务使脆弱人群的感染病例增加了0.77%。然而,像Kolaghat这样交通稀少的街区,变化甚微。针对年龄的行动限制,例如限制儿童和60岁以上的公民,可以减少病例量。根据医疗保健可用性数据,与covid -19前的水平相比,Kharagpur-2的最佳流量水平分别为40%和50%。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the effects of changing departure times on controlling secondary traffic peaks during the implementation of a congestion charge zone 研究在设立挤塞收费区期间,改变发车时间对控制二次交通高峰的影响
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101700
Sedigheh KhorramDehnavi , Salman AghidiKheyrabadi , Ali MorovatiSharifabadi , Alireza NaserSadrabadi
Transportation demand management policies have the potential to significantly alter individuals’ routine travel behavior. One of the key responses of private car passengers to the implementation of congestion plans is the adjustment of trip departure times. If the management of changing trip departure time shifts is not effective, the emergence of traffic peak periods before and after the plan may exceed current peak traffic levels. A literature review reveals that the investigation of trip departure time adjustments has received limited attention, and behavior regulation strategies to mitigate peak period formation have not been explored. The primary aim of this paper is to develop scenarios integrating transportation demand management strategies to prevent the occurrence of a tipping point. To achieve this, the effects of social and economic factors, travel characteristics, and citizens’ attitudes toward transportation demand management policies on private car passengers’ departure time shifts in the congestion zone have been examined. To estimate the probability of departure time adjustments, 2,256 individuals were interviewed in Shiraz, yielding 13,536 observations through Stated-Preference (SP) analysis. The calibration of the binary logit model has demonstrated that congestion pricing policies, parking fees, reductions in public transportation travel time, and enhancements in bus service quality exert significant influence on departure time modifications. Based on extensive policy considerations, 27 out of the 36 defined scenarios—those generating a peak period outside the congestion plan’s implementation timeframe—have been deemed unsuitable for execution. This paper introduces a novel probability-thresholding framework that operationalizes behavioral model outputs to proactively screen Transport Demand Management (TDM) scenarios for secondary congestion risks — a methodological advancement not previously applied in developing-city contexts.
交通需求管理政策有可能显著改变个人的日常出行行为。私家车乘客对实施挤塞计划的主要回应之一是调整行车出发时间。如果改变出行出发时间的管理不有效,计划前后出现的交通高峰可能会超过当前的交通高峰水平。文献综述表明,对出行出发时间调整的研究受到了有限的关注,并且尚未探索缓解高峰时段形成的行为调节策略。本文的主要目的是开发整合交通需求管理策略的场景,以防止临界点的发生。为此,研究了社会经济因素、出行特征和市民对交通需求管理政策的态度对拥堵区私家车乘客出发时间偏移的影响。为了估计出发时间调整的可能性,我们访问了设拉子地区的2256个人,通过状态偏好(SP)分析得出13536个观察结果。二元logit模型的校正表明,拥堵收费政策、停车费、公共交通出行时间的减少和公共汽车服务质量的提高对出发时间的调整有显著影响。基于广泛的政策考虑,在36个已定义的场景中,有27个场景(即在拥堵计划实施时间框架之外产生高峰时段的场景)被认为不适合执行。本文介绍了一种新的概率阈值框架,该框架可操作行为模型输出,以主动筛选交通需求管理(TDM)方案中的二次拥堵风险——这是一种以前未在发展中城市环境中应用的方法进步。
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引用次数: 0
Pardon me but your e-scooter is in my space: Evaluating the effectiveness of e-scooters parking policies through big data analytics 不好意思,你的电动滑板车占用了我的空间:通过大数据分析评估电动滑板车停车政策的有效性
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101707
Sharon Shoshany-Tavory, Hillel Bar-Gera
The growing popularity of shared e-scooters promises to enhance the mobility of urban dwellers in an environmentally friendly manner. On the other hand, e-scooters may potentially pose a risk to other road users, particularly pedestrians, and improperly parked vehicles may hinder accessibility. Therefore, to advance the goals of sustainability and mobility, cities should consider how street space should be managed for all travelers. One policy for shared e-scooter parking control is to limit parking to designated corrals. Corral-based parking policies have been adopted by many municipalities, with limited reports on effectiveness. This study provides an in-depth exploration of such policy deployment, governing the highly utilized services offered in the city of Tel-Aviv. By using our suggested framework and big-data spatio-temporal analytics of e-scooters data, we outline success measures, common pitfalls, and demonstrate city-wide patterns and location-specific results. Our discussion offers policy improvement suggestions, addressing design and policies, including corral-centered monitoring, redistribution policy, resilience estimation, and better space utilization. These could benefit municipalities, operators, and monitoring tools suppliers.
共享电动滑板车的日益普及有望以一种环保的方式增强城市居民的流动性。另一方面,电动滑板车可能会对其他道路使用者,特别是行人构成潜在风险,而停放不当的车辆可能会妨碍无障碍。因此,为了推进可持续性和流动性的目标,城市应该考虑如何为所有旅行者管理街道空间。共享电动滑板车停车控制的一项政策是将停车限制在指定的畜栏内。许多市政当局都采用了基于畜栏的停车政策,但关于其有效性的报道有限。本研究对这种政策部署进行了深入探索,管理特拉维夫市提供的高度利用的服务。通过使用我们建议的框架和对电动滑板车数据的大数据时空分析,我们概述了成功的措施,常见的陷阱,并展示了全市范围内的模式和特定地点的结果。我们的讨论提供了政策改进建议,解决了设计和政策,包括以畜栏为中心的监测、再分配政策、弹性评估和更好的空间利用。这将使市政当局、运营商和监控工具供应商受益。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the distributional impact of urban rail improvements: Logsum accessibility measures incorporating income class and household type 评估城市轨道交通改善的分配影响:纳入收入阶层和家庭类型的Logsum可达性措施
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101708
Yohei Naga , Ryosuke Abe , Hajriyanti Yatmar , Ryoma Gouto
Recent discussions on transportation project evaluation have increasingly emphasized the importance of incorporating equity considerations. This study developed a travel behavior model that incorporates individual attributes and empirically assessed the distributional impacts of urban rail improvement projects in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Travelers were classified in this area into 24 attributes based on four income classes and six household types, and we estimated mode choice models for home-to-work and home-to-private trips. These models were then used to calculate the logsum accessibility measures, to predict user benefits from urban rail projects completed in 2019 and 2023. Distributional analyses revealed that for home-to-work trips, the median user benefit increased with income, but the interquartile ranges remained similar across most income groups above two million JPY/year. For home-to-private trips, benefits are higher for households with only one or two workers or for higher-income groups, reflecting greater variation in travel behavior and the value of travel time.
最近关于运输项目评价的讨论日益强调纳入公平考虑的重要性。本研究建立了一个包含个体属性的出行行为模型,并实证评估了东京大都市区轨道交通改善项目的分布影响。根据四种收入类别和六种家庭类型,我们将该地区的旅行者分为24个属性,并估计了从家到工作和从家到私人旅行的模式选择模型。然后使用这些模型计算对数可达性指标,以预测2019年和2023年完成的城市轨道项目的用户效益。分布分析显示,对于家庭到工作的旅行,用户收益的中位数随着收入的增加而增加,但在大多数收入超过200万日元/年的群体中,四分位数范围保持相似。对于从家到私人的旅行,只有一两个工人的家庭或高收入群体的福利更高,反映了旅行行为和旅行时间价值的更大差异。
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引用次数: 0
Ship arrival patterns at the port of Sines: A comparative analysis of ETA and ATA 锡尼士港船舶到达模式:ETA与ATA的比较分析
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101705
Luís Rosa, Francisco Borges, Crismeire Isbaex, Carmen Luisa Vásquez, Teresa Batista
Accurate vessel arrival predictions are fundamental to efficient port operations, yet their reliability remains poorly understood. This study examines 15 years of arrival data from the Port of Sines (2009–2023) to assess the accuracy of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) predictions and their operational implications. The analysis of vessel movements reveals that precise on-time arrivals occurred in only 1.77 % of cases. While 56.93 % of vessels arrived ahead of schedule, delayed arrivals were disproportionately severe, averaging 6 h and 52 min late. The data shows 1,623 instances of extreme delays exceeding 24 h, highlighting significant forecasting challenges. Terminal specific analysis demonstrates marked variation in performance: The Container Terminal recorded the highest average delay (+10:26 h) and was the only facility where late arrivals outnumbered early ones. It was found that vessels with frequent port calls exhibited substantially better punctuality, indicating that operational knowledge improves scheduling accuracy. These timing discrepancies translate directly into extended anchorage periods, generating measurable economic costs and environmental impacts through increased fuel consumption and emissions. Better forecasting accuracy could significantly reduce the operational inefficiencies that currently outbreak container shipping operations.
准确的船舶到达预测是高效港口运营的基础,但其可靠性仍鲜为人知。本研究考察了锡尼什港(2009-2023)15年的到达数据,以评估估计到达时间(ETA)预测的准确性及其操作意义。对船只运动的分析显示,准确准时到达的病例仅占1.77%。虽然56.93%的船只提前到达,但延误严重,平均迟到6小时52分钟。数据显示,超过24小时的极端延误有1623起,这凸显了预测方面的重大挑战。航站楼具体分析显示了显著的表现差异:集装箱码头记录了最高的平均延误(+10:26小时),是唯一一个迟到人数超过早到人数的设施。研究发现,频繁停靠港口的船只表现出更好的准点率,这表明操作知识提高了调度准确性。这些时间差异直接转化为锚固期的延长,通过增加燃料消耗和排放产生可衡量的经济成本和环境影响。更好的预测准确性可以显著减少目前爆发的集装箱运输业务的运营效率低下。
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引用次数: 0
From ‘tale of two cities’ to ‘economic circle’: an assessment of the differential effects of high-speed railway on the economic growth of Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle 从“双城记”到“经济圈”:高铁对成渝双城经济圈经济增长的差异效应评价
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101704
Mao Changjiang, Luo Jian, Jiang xue, Jiao Shengyang
While numerous studies have investigated the regional economic impacts of high-speed rail (HSR), its role within “twin-core” urban agglomerations in topographically complex regions remains inadequately explored. This study addresses this gap by examining the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, a representative region characterized by complex mountainous terrain. Utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020, apply both a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) approach and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. This methodology elucidates the causal mechanisms and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HSR’s differential economic effects on core versus peripheral cities.Our findings reveal three key results: (1) Although HSR significantly fosters aggregate regional economic growth, its benefits are distributed highly unevenly, exhibiting a pattern of uneven spatial diffusion. While core cities capture larger direct gains, significant positive spillovers to peripheral cities are identified. This diffusion effect, however, is strongly moderated by rugged terrain, which attenuates spillovers and perpetuates core-periphery disparities. (2) The GTWR model further delineates the underlying causes of this spatial heterogeneity. The complex, rugged topography significantly escalates HSR construction and operational costs, thereby attenuating its positive economic spillovers. Topography thus emerges as a critical moderating variable, accounting for the stark disparity in HSR derived economic benefits between flat and mountainous areas. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that HSR primarily stimulates economic growth by boosting tertiary sector employment.This study provides causal and spatial empirical evidence for the applicability of the “core-periphery” theory in settings with complex topography. Our conclusions underscore the imperative of incorporating geographical constraints into transportation infrastructure planning. Accordingly, we propose targeted policy recommendations to foster regional coordination, mitigate topographical disadvantages, and advance the superior, integrated development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.
虽然已有大量研究调查了高速铁路(HSR)对区域经济的影响,但其在地形复杂地区的“双核”城市群中的作用仍未得到充分探讨。本研究通过考察成渝经济圈这一以复杂山地地形为特征的代表性区域来解决这一差距。利用2000年至2020年的面板数据,应用多期差中差(DID)方法和地理和时间加权回归(GTWR)模型。该方法阐明了高铁对核心城市和外围城市差异经济效应的因果机制和时空异质性。结果表明:(1)高铁对区域经济总量增长的促进作用显著,但其效益分布极不均匀,呈现不均匀的空间扩散格局;虽然核心城市获得了更大的直接收益,但对外围城市的显著正溢出效应已被确定。然而,这种扩散效应被崎岖的地形强烈地缓和了,这减弱了溢出效应,并使核心与外围的差距永久化。(2) GTWR模型进一步刻画了这种空间异质性的深层原因。复杂、崎岖的地形大大增加了高铁的建设和运营成本,从而减弱了其积极的经济溢出效应。因此,地形成为一个关键的调节变量,解释了平原和山区高铁带来的经济效益的明显差异。(3)机制分析表明,高铁主要通过促进第三产业就业来刺激经济增长。本研究为“核心-边缘”理论在复杂地形环境中的适用性提供了因果和空间经验证据。我们的结论强调了将地理限制纳入交通基础设施规划的必要性。据此,我们提出了有针对性的政策建议,以促进区域协调,缓解地形劣势,促进成渝经济圈的优质融合发展。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating uncertainty due to the Red Sea Crisis: A scenario development application to the Port of Trieste, Italy 减轻红海危机带来的不确定性:意大利的里雅斯特港的场景开发应用
IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101703
Caterina Caramuta, Alessia Grosso, Giovanni Longo
The severe repercussions of the Red Sea crisis on supply chains, as well as the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have highlighted once again their great vulnerability, especially in the face of major and unpredictable shocks. The impacts of these latter have therefore urged decision makers to define resiliency strategies to cope with the uncertainty characterizing the operating environment. With reference to a transport node, in this paper the scenario development approach has been adopted to formally investigate possible futures for the Port of Trieste, Italy, which was affected by the consequences of the recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, at the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Notably, the 2 × 2 matrix technique was used to envision potential scenarios after identifying two critical uncertainties, which represent the most impacting and yet uncertain driving forces of the problem at hand. In this way, based on the level of the traffic flow stability and of the adequacy of port transport infrastructures, four different scenarios have been depicted in qualitative terms and then, their implications have been discussed to propose the Port Authority some recommendations on possible counteractions. The results of the study suggest that valuable initiatives should consider risk sharing through public–private partnerships, the diversification of port services and the rapid implementation of technological advancements.
红海危机对供应链的严重影响,以及2019冠状病毒病大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突造成的中断,再次凸显了供应链的巨大脆弱性,特别是在面临重大和不可预测的冲击时。因此,后者的影响促使决策者制定弹性战略,以应对经营环境的不确定性特征。关于运输节点,本文采用了情景发展方法来正式调查意大利的里雅斯特港可能的未来,该港口受到最近中东曼德海峡地缘政治破坏后果的影响。值得注意的是,2 × 2矩阵技术用于在确定了两个关键不确定性之后设想潜在的场景,这两个关键不确定性代表了手头问题的最具影响力和最不确定的驱动力。这样,根据交通流量的稳定性和港口运输基础设施的充分性,定性地描述了四种不同的情景,然后讨论了它们的影响,就可能的对策向港务局提出了一些建议。研究结果表明,有价值的举措应考虑通过公私伙伴关系、港口服务多样化和快速实施技术进步来分担风险。
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引用次数: 0
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