Case Studies on Transport Policy最新文献

英文中文

Transit network design: A sustainability-oriented methodology for the management of large bus networks and low emission zones

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101385

Marco Petrelli , Ernesto Cipriani , Umberto Crisalli , Andrea Gemma , Livia Mannini

The present paper proposes a methodology aimed at design bus public network suited to serve high-sensitive zones of the study area with low-impact vehicles. The purpose is to provide a procedure for support a smart electrification of public transport bus network, optimizing the use of electric vehicles where it is most effective to operate them. The new methodology solves a Transit Network Design (TND) problem where the optimization model consists of minimizing costs and resources in a public transport network also including sustainability issues. Therefore, starting from the method presented in Cipriani et al. (2012), the issue is framed as a multi-objective model, combining two objectives: the classic TND objective and the second related to the identification of the use of electric vehicles where it is most effective to operate them. The complexity of such issues needs metaheuristic algorithms application, in which the GA permits to obtain Pareto optimal non dominated solutions for the TND. Such solutions are then exploited as a multi-objective analysis, treating conventional objectives and objectives for a better use of electric vehicles, separately. The methodology has been implemented in a case study in the city of Rome. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of methodology to design robust public transport supply system suited to serve high-sensitive zones.

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引用次数: 0

Covariate selection in propensity score matching: A case study of how the Shinkansen has impacted population changes in Japan

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101389

Jingyuan Wang, Shintaro Terabe, Hideki Yaginuma

This study presents a novel covariate selection method that combines Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), focusing on achieving a balance between model fit and complexity. Our findings emphasize the significant impact of covariates on estimated results in Propensity Score Matching (PSM) analyses. Through case studies, we validate the effectiveness of our proposed method across various PSM approaches, including one-to-one matching, K-nearest neighbors matching, radius matching, kernel matching, and Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW). For researchers constrained to cross-sectional data, our comparisons among different PSM methodologies provide valuable insights. Additionally, we explore the applicability of our method to PSM extensions such as Covariate Balancing Propensity Score (CBPS) and PSM-Difference-in-Differences (DID). Our case study reveals significant causal effects of Japan’s Shinkansen on population changes, with notable growth observed in both cross-sectional and panel data analyses.These findings hold important implications for transportation policy, and we offer recommendations for relevant policymakers based on our results.

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引用次数: 0

Transport disruptions as opportunities for behaviour change: A qualitative evaluation of UK policy and practice

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101386

Tara McGuicken , Lorraine Whitmarsh , Samuel Hampton

Ambitious national targets for reducing transport emissions require effective policies that disturb entrenched unsustainable travel behaviours, in particular car use. One approach policymakers can adopt is to leverage transport environment disruptions as opportunities to destabilise habits and facilitate shifts in travel behaviour. A framework consisting of four key dimensions of disruptions (plannedness, scale, frequency, and duration) is presented. The current study investigates whether UK transport policymakers and practitioners currently recognise opportunities in transport environment disruptions across these dimensions, and the factors facilitating or preventing this approach. Through qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with 23 transport practitioners from various UK transport organisations and key strategic documents, the findings reveal that while practitioners acknowledge the potential of disruptions in the transport environment to foster behavioural shifts to some extent, general approaches are limited in their conceptualisations of disruptions. Recommendations emphasise the need for comprehensive strategies that leverage disruptions driven by bold political leadership to overcome car dependency and achieve sustainable transport goals.

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引用次数: 0

Predicting mobility choice and community connectivity in Latin America

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101387

Eduardo Bilbao Pavón , Luis Alonso Pastor , Alejandro Padilla , Mayra Gamboa , Kent Larson

This study focuses on addressing the mobility challenges faced by developing regions of Latin America as data collection and the composition of formal and informal transportation. In this article, a tool is developed using a Machine Learning (ML) model that is able to learn and predict the patterns for choosing one mobility choice over another based on a student survey of the University of Guadalajara (UdeG). The study helps to understand which are the most relevant factors influencing mobility choice at one of the largest universities in Latin America, with travel time and number of household vehicles being the most determinant factors. The tool effectiveness is validated by the creation of two scenarios that simulate changes in mobility choices by relocating individuals closer to their destinations. The conducted experiment demonstrates a tendency towards walking and a significant decrease in private auto usage by relocating people closer to their destinations. The creation of this tool aims to help public institutions in making better decisions to develop a better society with reduced pollution, enhanced social impacts and climate change effects.

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引用次数: 0

Car ownership versus carsharing? An analysis comparing socio-economic and policy factors of carsharing and car ownership

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101384

Johanna Marie Kunsmann, Peter Letmathe

Even though Germany’s carsharing market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, the actual share of carsharing usage in daily mobility remains low. However, in terms of individual transportation, the use of carsharing as an alternative to private vehicle ownership could lead to a more sustainable mobility system. To realize environmental and social benefits, consumers’ awareness of the potential financial benefits has to be enhanced, as financial considerations are a decisive and under-researched factor for changes in mobility habits. To close this gap, our study provides a transparent economic analysis of those individual transportation solutions by employing a Total Cost of Usage (TCU) model for the permanent carsharing usage and a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model for private vehicle ownership based on real-world market data from the German economic area. Additionally, we assess the impact of higher residential parking fees, and the impact of changes in residual values of private vehicles, as well as of changes in carsharing tariffs. Overall, the results indicate a high financial competitiveness of carsharing compared to vehicle ownership in all vehicle segments and across different driver profiles. In particular, the targeted design of policy instruments, such as an increase in residential parking fees strengthens the economic advantages of carsharing and may trigger consumers to switch from private vehicle ownership to carsharing as a more sustainable individual mobility solution.

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the effectiveness of automated scheduling at rural transit agencies in north carolina

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101381

Matthew Wigginton Bhagat-Conway , Luke Pullo , Kai Monast

Demand-response transit is the backbone of many rural transit systems. Demand-response transit provides riders with curb-to-curb service, not following fixed routes or schedules. While automated and semi-automated demand response scheduling has existed for decades, many agencies create schedules manually, using some form of computer-assisted schedule management. However, some transit agencies have recently adopted “microtransit” scheduling software packages that place an increasingly strong focus on fully automating the creation of schedules, and providing same-day service. In this article, we evaluate the recent implementation of automated scheduling software at two rural agencies in North Carolina.

We visited both agencies and conducted in-depth observations of their scheduling staff’s use of the software, as well as interviews with management. We found that neither agency used automated scheduling features of their software extensively. There were two main reasons for this. Firstly, automated scheduling was not seen as necessary; schedulers are experts on their regions and customers, and can create efficient schedules manually. Secondly, automated scheduling did not always match the service pattern of the agency, for instance by insufficiently prioritizing shared rides.

Agencies considering software purchases should consider what their needs and desires for a microtransit or automated scheduling system are. This process should involve both management and scheduling staff, to ensure the purchased system meets the needs of the agency. Automated scheduling and microtransit systems may not be a good fit for all agencies, particularly if existing scheduling practices are already working well.

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引用次数: 0

Simulating the uptake of electric motorized two-wheelers in Italy. An agent-based model parametrized with a discrete choice experiment

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101382

Mariangela Scorrano, Romeo Danielis

Electric motorized two-wheelers (e-M2Ws) have the potential to reduce noise and air quality in urban environments. The paper develops an agent-based model, parametrized with a discrete choice experiment, to forecast e-M2Ws’ uptake in Italy. The application considers two market segments: mopeds and (seated) scooters. A scenario analysis is performed assessing the e-M2Ws prospects in different technological and policy scenarios. We find that electric mopeds enjoy a higher consumers’ acceptance than electric scooters. Our model predicts that they might play a relevant role in most scenarios, achieving in 2030 a market share ranging between 21.1 % and 44.2 %. On the contrary, electric scooters have much poorer prospects, achieving in 2030 a maximum of 5.5 % market share.

引用次数: 0

Understanding the influence of fare reduction on public transport adoption: A study of Lisbon, Portugal

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101383

Kelli Silver , André Lopes , David Vale , Nuno Marques da Costa

In Lisbon, a fare reduction policy was implemented with the stated aim of attracting passengers to public transport while combating the negative externalities associated with car usage. However, no external assessment has yet gauged whether fare reduction effectively influenced public transport adoption. This paper evaluates the impact of fare reduction on public transport pass purchasing behavior as a proxy for public transport adoption and overall ridership. It employs a Random Forest machine learning model to explore the factors influencing pass purchasing and the heterogeneity of preferences among different groups. Primary data comes from a survey of over 1,000 Lisbon residents on transport expenditures and daily travel patterns. The findings reveal that fare reduction has a positive, yet limited, effect on public transport pass purchasing. Of those who did not previously purchase a pass, 27% started buying a Lisbon Navegante pass after the reform. Moreover, beyond potential savings, demographic characteristics like age, income, and gender, as well as behavioral patterns such as previous modal choice, significantly affect the likelihood of purchasing a public transport pass. While acknowledging the positive impact of fare reduction, the paper argues that fare reduction alone is unlikely to drive significant public transport adoption or a meaningful shift away from car use in Lisbon. It underscores the need for policymakers and urban planners to consider a broader spectrum of factors that shape travelers’ preferences and behavior.

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引用次数: 0

Development of emerging solution for distracted driving: A random parameter ordered probit model approach

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101379

Thanapong Champahom , Chamroeun Se , Savalee Uttra , Wimon Laphrom , Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

Distracted driving is a major contributing factor to highway crashes, with cell phone use while driving (CPUD) representing one of the most visible and problematic forms of distraction. This study examines key factors influencing CPUD, including health motivation, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude toward use, and law enforcement. A Random Parameters Ordered Probit Model with heterogeneity in means was applied to data collected through structured, face-to-face interviews with 1,518 Thai drivers. Respondents were recruited from public locations in five regions—Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Central, Northeastern, Northern, and Southern—each providing approximately 300 participants. The findings suggest that although all factors influence CPUD, health motivation, and perceived severity exert the strongest discouraging effects. Additionally, the “attitude toward use” factor emerged as a random parameter, indicating substantial individual-level variability in drivers’ perceptions and engagement in CPUD. Based on these results, evidence-based policy measures are recommended to strengthen law enforcement and enhance public awareness campaigns. The study also proposes specific guidelines for incorporating CPUD-reduction strategies into driver’s license training programs, offering particular relevance for low- and middle-income countries facing similar road safety challenges.

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the congestion-reducing effects of road rationing policy: Evidence from Jakarta’s odd-even policy

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101380

Muhammad Halley Yudhistira , Regi Kusumaatmadja , Yusuf Sofiyandi , Mochammad Firman Hidayat

Travel demand restriction policies are becoming popular to reduce traffic jams in heavily congested urban areas. This paper evaluates the short-term impact of the odd–even number plate policy – a form of travel demand restriction –using Google Maps data on traffic congestion in Jakarta, one of the world’s most congested cities. The estimation result of hourly travel time data at road section levels shows that the odd–even policy statistically significantly reduced travel time by 3.0%, on average, during the first month of its implementation. The effect was higher – about 10% during the weekend and the weekly afternoon peak hours. The estimates were robust across various specifications, and no effect was found when looking for travel speed changes in untreated parts of the road network. This study also suggests that road users are likely to depart early in the morning to avoid the policy. The effect seems stagnant after the fourth week of the policy’s introduction. This study suggests that the odd–even number plate policy alone would be ineffective for the traffic congestion reduction agenda in Jakarta’s urban environment.

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