Case Studies on Transport Policy最新文献_第6页

Peer-to-peer carsharing as a digital mobility innovation: Market potential and policy implications in Italy 点对点汽车共享作为数字移动创新：意大利的市场潜力和政策影响

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101672

Angela Stefania Bergantino , Romeo Danielis , Mario Intini , Chiara Ricchetti , Lucia Rotaris , Mariangela Scorrano

This study explores the potential demand and supply of peer-to-peer car sharing in Italy, focusing on the factors influencing individuals’ willingness to rent out their vehicles or participate as renters. We collected stated preference data from two nationally representative samples, each consisting of approximately 4,000 individuals, and analyzed the data using discrete choice models with latent variables.

Our results reveal a significant asymmetry between supply and demand: car owners tend to be more skeptical and reluctant to engage in P2P car-sharing, primarily due to concerns about vehicle damage and disputes with renters, whereas renters are more motivated by perceived benefits, peer effects, and environmental sensitivity. The study also highlights that critical factors such as platform fees, insurance coverage, and the ease of vehicle access significantly shape users’ decisions.

Crucially, the study underscores the enabling role of digitalization, without which the peer-to-peer car sharing model would not be feasible. Digital platforms serve as the foundation for matching supply and demand, managing transactions, and facilitating trust through transparent pricing, identity verification, and service quality assurances. According to our results, enhancing these digital features, such as clear tariff structures, reliable user verification, and guarantees of vehicle condition, is essential to reducing perceived risks and increasing user confidence.

Importantly, the analysis also reveals that socio-demographic, psychological, and attitudinal characteristics, such as age, gender, education level, place of residence, risk perception, and sense of control, are key determinants of individuals’ willingness to participate, particularly under less favorable service conditions. These findings point to the importance of platform design and user segmentation in fostering wider participation in digitally enabled mobility solutions.

本研究探讨了意大利点对点汽车共享的潜在需求和供给，重点研究了影响个人出租汽车或参与租车意愿的因素。我们从两个具有全国代表性的样本中收集了陈述偏好数据，每个样本由大约4,000个人组成，并使用带有潜在变量的离散选择模型分析数据。我们的研究结果揭示了供需之间的显著不对称：车主倾向于更加怀疑和不愿意参与P2P汽车共享，主要是因为担心车辆损坏和与租车人的纠纷，而租车人则更多地受到感知利益、同伴效应和环境敏感性的激励。该研究还强调，平台费用、保险范围和车辆访问便利性等关键因素在很大程度上影响了用户的决定。至关重要的是，该研究强调了数字化的推动作用，没有数字化，点对点汽车共享模式将不可行。数字平台通过透明定价、身份验证和服务质量保证，为匹配供需、管理交易和促进信任奠定了基础。根据我们的研究结果，增强这些数字特征，如明确的关税结构、可靠的用户验证和车辆状况保证，对于降低感知风险和提高用户信心至关重要。重要的是，分析还揭示了社会人口学、心理和态度特征，如年龄、性别、教育水平、居住地、风险感知和控制感，是个人参与意愿的关键决定因素，特别是在不太有利的服务条件下。这些发现表明，平台设计和用户细分在促进更广泛参与数字化移动解决方案方面的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

An integrated framework for evaluating smart and sustainable port competitiveness: evidence from Vietnam 评估智能和可持续港口竞争力的综合框架：来自越南的证据

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101670

Phong Nha Nguyen , Thi Yen Pham , Giang Nguyen Thi Huong , Chien Hoang Do

This study proposes an integrated framework to evaluate the competitiveness of ten container terminals in Haiphong Port by combining both traditional and modern performance factors. Using the Entropy–TOPSIS method, the study objectively ranks terminal competitiveness based on criteria such as throughput, infrastructure, digitalization, and sustainability. Fuzzy C-Means clustering is employed to classify terminals into strategic groups, offering tailored policy implications for each group. Results show that terminals such as HITC, Nam Dinh Vu, and Tan Vu lead in both traditional and modernization scores, while others lag behind due to limitations in infrastructure and technology adoption. The model demonstrates that integrating smart and green metrics into port performance assessment offers a more comprehensive understanding of competitiveness. This approach provides a data-driven tool for port authorities and policymakers to prioritize investments and plan differentiated development strategies, especially in emerging economies facing digital transformation and environmental pressures.

本研究以海防港十个货柜码头为研究对象，结合传统绩效因子与现代绩效因子，提出综合评估框架。该研究使用熵topsis方法，根据吞吐量、基础设施、数字化和可持续性等标准客观地对码头竞争力进行排名。采用模糊c均值聚类将终端划分为战略组，为每个组提供量身定制的策略含义。结果显示，HITC、南定午和Tan Vu等终端在传统和现代化得分方面都处于领先地位，而其他终端则由于基础设施和技术采用的限制而落后。该模型表明，将智能和绿色指标整合到港口绩效评估中，可以更全面地了解竞争力。这种方法为港口当局和政策制定者提供了数据驱动的工具，以确定投资的优先顺序和规划差异化的发展战略，特别是在面临数字化转型和环境压力的新兴经济体。

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引用次数: 0

Desirable bikeways from the perspective of perceived safety using the ‘Hiyari Hatto Map’ in Japan 从感知安全的角度来看，使用日本的“Hiyari Hatto地图”的理想自行车道

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101665

Kotaro Tsuchiya , Ryo Ariyoshi

Infrastructure for cyclists has been globally developed to reduce carbon footprints. However, though the total number of traffic accident records has decreased annually, the number of bicycle accidents has not decreased as much, and there is a need to develop safer bikeways. This study aimed to propose the desirable bikeway by comparing the perceived safety towards each type of bikeway, such as bike lanes, cycle tracks, shared bikeways with pedestrians and motor vehicles, using near-accident data, known as the “Hiyari Hatto Map”, made in 2021 in Japan. This study also analysed the likelihood and the severity of perceived safety from cyclists’ and pedestrians’ perspectives. In conclusion, regarding perceived safety, cycle tracks were superior to bike lanes for wide roads with high traffic volume and fast traffic speed. As conversion from bike lanes to cycle tracks is possible but needs time and budget, strengthening enforcement of on-street parking and preventing cyclists from encroaching on the sidewalk would be required for bike lanes with a high frequency of near-accidents in the short term. For shared bikeways on narrow roads, a noticeable design to separate cyclists and motor traffic is desirable regardless of the road class.

为减少碳足迹，全球都在开发自行车基础设施。然而，尽管交通事故记录的总数每年都在减少，但自行车事故的数量并没有减少那么多，因此有必要开发更安全的自行车道。本研究旨在通过比较对每种类型的自行车道（如自行车道、自行车道、与行人和机动车共享的自行车道）的感知安全性，提出理想的自行车道，使用接近事故的数据，被称为日本2021年制作的“Hiyari Hatto地图”。本研究还从骑自行车者和行人的角度分析了感知安全的可能性和严重性。综上所述，在感知安全性方面，车道宽、车流量大、车速快的情况下，自行车道优于自行车道。从自行车道转变为自行车道是可行的，但需要时间和预算。短期内，对于频繁发生事故的自行车道，需要加强街边停车的执法，防止骑自行车的人侵占人行道。对于狭窄道路上的共享自行车道，无论道路类型如何，都需要一个明显的设计，将自行车和机动车分开。

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引用次数: 0

Always on their toes: Policy entrepreneurs’ efforts to avoid backlashes against climate policies for private cars in Norway 时刻保持警惕：政策企业家们努力避免反对挪威私家车气候政策的反弹

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101662

Solveig Aamodt, Erlend André Tveiten Hermansen, Merethe Dotterud Leiren

Transport policies targeted towards cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from private cars are subject to increasing scholarly attention. An increasing literature investigates the role of policy entrepreneurs in promoting climate policies. Their role in maintaining policies is, however, rarely addressed in this literature. As climate policies are contested, they are also prone to weakening and rollbacks – and policies targeting private cars are no exception. Comparing the electrification of the vehicle fleet and increased use of biofuels in the Norwegian private car transport segment, we argue that by concentrating on the processes and analysing the connection between actors and policies across measures, we can better understand why and how policy instruments are maintained. The cases are interesting because they are the two most important climate policies in Norway targeting private cars. To stay successful, we find that policy entrepreneurs have to continue to remain active and alert after a policy-decision in their favour has been taken. To avoid rollback and achieve further policy change, they make use of different entrepreneurial strategies. We also find that in a democracy like Norway, where minority governments are common, the national budget negotiations create particularly important policy windows for low-carbon transport policies. We conclude that policy entrepreneurs play pivotal roles in maintaining policies and preventing backlash. Successful policy entrepreneurship is conditioned by persistence and ability to analyze the parliamentary situation combined with skillful choices of entrepreneurial strategies.

旨在减少私家车温室气体（GHG）排放的交通政策受到越来越多的学术关注。越来越多的文献研究政策企业家在促进气候政策方面的作用。然而，它们在维持政策方面的作用在本文献中很少提及。随着气候政策受到质疑，它们也容易被削弱和倒退——针对私家车的政策也不例外。通过比较挪威私家车运输部门车辆的电气化和生物燃料的增加使用，我们认为，通过专注于过程并分析跨措施的行为者和政策之间的联系，我们可以更好地理解为什么以及如何维持政策工具。这两个案例很有趣，因为它们是挪威针对私家车的两项最重要的气候政策。为了保持成功，我们发现政策企业家必须在对他们有利的政策决定做出后继续保持积极和警觉。为了避免回滚和实现进一步的政策变化，他们采用了不同的创业策略。我们还发现，在挪威这样一个少数党政府普遍存在的民主国家，国家预算谈判为低碳交通政策创造了特别重要的政策窗口。我们的结论是，政策企业家在维持政策和防止反弹方面发挥着关键作用。成功的政策企业家精神的条件是坚持和分析议会局势的能力，并结合企业家战略的熟练选择。

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引用次数: 0

Analyzing heterogeneity in motorcycle crashes: a comparative study of senior and young riders using the random forest approach 分析摩托车碰撞的异质性：使用随机森林方法的老年和年轻骑手的比较研究

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101666

Ittirit Mohamad

This study provides a comparative analysis of highway road accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders in Thailand, utilizing a random forest approach to uncover pivotal factors contributing to accidents within these age groups. The dataset, comprising 33,875 highway accident cases recorded between 2015 and 2020, was sourced from official government agency (Thailand Department of Public Disaster Prevention and Mitigation) reports. Accidents were categorized based on multiple variables, including weather conditions, road infrastructure, and human behaviors. The findings reveal that senior motorcycle riders are significantly more likely to experience fatal outcomes compared to their younger counterparts. The random forest algorithm demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, achieving accuracy rates of 67.5 % (AUC: 0.721) for senior riders and 73 % (AUC: 0.745) for young riders. Key contributing factors to accidents differed notably between the two groups: while human factors such as intoxicated riding and riding during daylight with proper lighting were predominant among young riders, environmental factors, including road and weather conditions, played a more critical role in accidents involving senior riders. This study highlights the effectiveness of the random forest algorithm in predicting accident outcomes and identifying distinct risk factors for different age groups. By uncovering these differences, the research provides valuable insights into the underlying causes of highway accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders. The results underscore the need for tailored interventions and policies to mitigate risks for these vulnerable populations, thereby enhancing road safety outcomes.

本研究对泰国涉及老年和年轻摩托车手的公路交通事故进行了比较分析，利用随机森林方法揭示了这些年龄组中导致事故的关键因素。该数据集包括2015年至2020年间记录的33,875起公路事故，来自官方政府机构（泰国公共灾害预防和缓解部）的报告。事故分类基于多个变量，包括天气条件、道路基础设施和人类行为。研究结果显示，与年轻人相比，老年摩托车手更有可能经历致命的后果。随机森林算法显示出较强的预测能力，对老年骑手的准确率为67.5% (AUC: 0.721)，对年轻骑手的准确率为73% （AUC: 0.745）。导致事故的关键因素在两组之间存在显著差异：人为因素，如醉酒骑行和在有适当照明的白天骑行，在年轻骑手中占主导地位，而环境因素，包括道路和天气条件，在涉及老年骑手的事故中起着更重要的作用。本研究强调了随机森林算法在预测事故结果和识别不同年龄组不同风险因素方面的有效性。通过揭示这些差异，该研究为涉及老年和年轻摩托车骑手的公路事故的潜在原因提供了有价值的见解。研究结果强调，需要制定有针对性的干预措施和政策，以减轻这些弱势群体的风险，从而提高道路安全成果。

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引用次数: 0

Evolving land value effects of BRT and MRT: Evidence from Jakarta’s mobility transition BRT和MRT的土地价值效应演变：来自雅加达交通转型的证据

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101668

Franco Jauregui-Fung , Tobias Kuhnimhof , Jeffrey Kenworthy

Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.

快速公交（BRT）因其可负担性和增量实施潜力在新兴经济体中被广泛采用。然而，许多城市现在开始实施城市轨道交通，作为一种更高质量的公共交通选择。这就提出了一个问题，即一旦铁路建成，现有BRT网络的作用，特别是考虑到它们对土地价值的影响。本文以雅加达为例，探讨了brt相关的土地价值提升（LVU）在铁路开始运营后的演变。该研究使用普通最小二乘法（OLS）和地理加权回归（GWR）分析了2017年（铁路建成前）和2021年（铁路建成后）雅加达捷运和捷运雅加达站周围的住宅土地价值。研究结果表明：(1)靠近雅加达trans站与2017年的隆升有关，特别是在南雅加达；(2)到2021年，在雅加达全市范围内，特别是在北部和东部，以及雅加达中部，都出现了BRT邻近处罚；(3)邻近雅加达捷运站与2021年的持续抬升有关，在雅加达南部升级的立交节点影响最大。这些模式的时间和空间一致性与铁路主导的替代机制是一致的，在这种机制中，城市政策的关注和开发商的行动集中在铁路附近的支付意愿，而独立的BRT走廊越来越多地反映了价格的邻近惩罚。政策建议包括BRT- mrt站点的战略性共址和整合，通过环境敏感型站点设计减轻BRT邻近效应，以及及时在综合枢纽进行以交通为导向的开发（TOD）和土地价值获取（LVC），以利用市场信号最强烈的价值。

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引用次数: 0

Measured service reliability and customer satisfaction in public transport 测量公共交通的服务可靠性和顾客满意度

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101669

Ulrik Berggren , Carl-William Palmqvist , Roger Pyddoke

How travellers perceive the quality of public transport services has profound influence on their satisfaction and thus of their inclination to choose this mode of transport. Punctuality, which may be interpreted as timetable adherence or overall travel time predictability, is often pointed out as the most important constituent of overall service reliability of public transport systems. However, in order for operators to be able to improve passengers’ perceptions of service reliability, an empirically derived linkage between perceptions and actual service performance indicators must be established. This paper has addressed this issue by using six-year longitudinal dataset on half-year resolution level from the regional public transport system of Scania, Sweden, to relate various indices of actual service reliability, obtained from service performance indicators, to stated satisfaction with punctuality for trains and buses. This was done by means of linear regression models using a stepwise approach to eliminate redundant variables, based on the level of independence of each variable. The results indicate that average arrival delay and frequency of early departures in relation to schedule are the most important factors of service reliability to explain travellerś perceptions of punctuality. Thus, for instance, average arrival delay and schedule adherence are indicated to have three times larger impact on satisfaction than frequency of early departures. But we also find that other service quality factors such as cleanliness, safety, and seat availability are also indicated to have an impact on perceptions of service reliability. It is emphasized that appropriate service performance data, and their relation to perceptions of passengers, constitutes crucial information for commercial and public providers in their ambition to improve levels of passenger satisfaction with operations but that the optimal level of punctuality is likely to differ between different passenger categories, and thus services.

旅客如何看待公共交通服务的质量对他们的满意度有深远的影响，从而影响他们选择这种交通方式的倾向。准时性通常被认为是公共交通系统整体服务可靠性的最重要组成部分，它可以被解释为遵守时间表或总体旅行时间的可预测性。然而，为了使运营商能够提高乘客对服务可靠性的感知，必须建立经验推导的感知与实际服务绩效指标之间的联系。本文通过使用瑞典斯堪尼亚地区公共交通系统半年分辨率水平的六年纵向数据集来解决这个问题，将从服务绩效指标中获得的实际服务可靠性的各种指标与火车和公共汽车的准点满意度联系起来。这是通过线性回归模型来完成的，使用逐步方法来消除冗余变量，基于每个变量的独立性水平。结果表明，平均到达延误和提前离港频率是影响服务可靠性的最重要因素，可以解释旅客的准点观念。因此，例如，平均到达延迟和时间表依从性对满意度的影响是提前离开频率的三倍。但我们也发现，其他服务质量因素，如清洁度、安全性和座位可用性，也表明对服务可靠性的看法有影响。报告强调，适当的服务业绩数据及其与乘客看法的关系是商业和公共服务提供者提高乘客对运营满意度的关键信息，但最佳准点水平可能因不同的乘客类别而异，因此服务也不同。

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引用次数: 0

Coastal Free trade zones as development engines: Local peformance of Anzali Free Zone in Iran, challenges and lessons for sustainable growth 沿海自由贸易区作为发展引擎：伊朗安扎利自由贸易区的地方表现、可持续增长的挑战和教训

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101667

Reza Kheyroddin , Nazanin Mostafavi Esfahani , Javad Kamali

Free Trade-Industrial Zones, with their unique characteristics, can drive regional and national economic growth. However, without aligning with core objectives, they risk becoming import hubs for consumer goods, leading to capital flight and weakening the economy. This study examines the Anzali Free Trade-Industrial Zone’s performance over two decades, analyzing investment, export, and import data through a mixed-methods approach, including library research and interviews with zone administrators.

Findings show a decline in imports, stable exports, and significant growth in locally manufactured goods for international and domestic markets—indicators of increased employment. Yet, regulatory inconsistencies, limited value-added processing, and infrastructure gaps, especially related to the North-South Transport Corridor, pose challenges. To address these issues, attracting targeted investments in processing industries, fostering industrial ecosystems, and strengthening maritime links are crucial. Additionally, leveraging regional strengths by investing in sectors like fisheries and agriculture, improving transportation infrastructure—such as connecting to the national railway—and expanding trade agreements and reducing tariffs could enhance trade volume.

Given its strategic location, the Anzali Zone has the potential to become a major economic hub in northern Iran. Achieving this requires strategic planning, effective regulation, and regional cooperation, which would significantly boost export-led growth and regional development.

自由贸易产业区以其独特的特点，带动了区域和国家经济的发展。然而，如果不与核心目标保持一致，它们就有可能成为消费品的进口中心，导致资本外逃，削弱经济。本研究考察了安扎利自由贸易工业区二十年来的表现，通过混合方法分析了投资、出口和进口数据，包括图书馆研究和对自贸区管理者的访谈。调查结果显示，进口下降，出口稳定，面向国际和国内市场的本地制成品大幅增长，这些都是就业增加的指标。然而，监管不一致、增值加工有限以及基础设施差距，特别是与南北运输走廊相关的基础设施差距，构成了挑战。为解决这些问题，吸引有针对性的加工业投资、培育工业生态系统和加强海上联系至关重要。此外，通过投资渔业和农业等部门、改善交通基础设施（如连接国家铁路）、扩大贸易协定和降低关税来发挥区域优势，可以增加贸易额。鉴于其战略位置，安扎里区有潜力成为伊朗北部的一个主要经济中心。实现这一目标需要战略规划、有效监管和区域合作，这将大大促进出口导向型增长和区域发展。

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引用次数: 0

Commuters’ preference towards motorized feeder service for last-mile connectivity from metro stations in a commercial hub 通勤者对机动接驳服务的偏好，以便从商业中心的地铁站获得最后一英里的连接

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101661

Priyanka Das , Abhishek Chakraborty , Sudipta Pal , Bhargab Maitra

The preference of commuters for using motorized feeder service (MFS) as a first-and-last mile (FLM) connection from metro stations has been aimed in the present work. The work has been demonstrated in the context of a commercial hub known as Nabadiganta Industrial Township, in India. First, the effect of commuters’ trip-related and socio-economic characteristics on their decision to choose MFS over other active modes is assessed. In this regard, a Binomial Probit model is developed for identification of such factors which have a significant impact on the commuters’ choice for using MFS. Next, the willingness to pay (WTP) of the commuters for the MFS is estimated. In addition, the study explores the effect of commuters’ trip-related and socio-economic characteristics on the WTP values. For both these purposes, Random Parameter Logit (RPL) models are developed to estimate the WTP values and also for assessing the effect of their socio-economic status and trip-related characteristics on the WTP values. The study reveals quite a few intriguing findings which can aid in framing of appropriate policies to improve the motorized feeder service as an FLM connectivity from metro stations.

在目前的工作中，通勤者倾向于使用机动支线服务（MFS）作为地铁车站的第一和最后一英里（FLM）连接。这项工作已经在印度的Nabadiganta工业小镇的商业中心进行了演示。首先，评估了通勤者的出行相关特征和社会经济特征对他们选择MFS而不是其他主动模式的影响。在此基础上，建立了二项概率模型，以识别影响通勤者选择MFS的因素。其次，估计通勤者对MFS的支付意愿（WTP）。此外，研究还探讨了通勤者出行相关特征和社会经济特征对WTP值的影响。为了这两个目的，我们开发了随机参数Logit （RPL）模型来估计WTP值，并评估他们的社会经济地位和旅行相关特征对WTP值的影响。该研究揭示了一些有趣的发现，可以帮助制定适当的政策，以改善从地铁站连接FLM的机动支线服务。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-dimensional integrated development strategy for urban rail transit optimized via a carbon emission model driven by new quality productive forces 以新型优质生产力驱动的碳排放模式优化城市轨道交通多维度一体化发展战略

IF 3.3 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

Case Studies on Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101664

Feiyang Wang , Wenwen Zhang , Yuxin Chen , Yi Li , Jinzhou Bai

Urban rail transit is an energy-intensive sector with substantial carbon emissions, particularly during its operational phase. Despite the rapid emergence of energy-saving technologies, the lack of systematic quantification of their carbon emission reduction efficiencies hinders comparative evaluation and informed decision-making. This study addresses this gap by developing a carbon emission calculation framework for key energy-saving technologies, incorporating an enhanced Bass diffusion model to forecast future emissions. A marginal abatement cost analysis and a Multi-Constraint Interior Point Method are further employed to formulate an optimized, multi-dimensional integrated strategy encompassing energy, vehicle, storage, and network systems. Results reveal that, in terms of carbon emission impact, the technologies rank as follows: Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM) traction systems, Regenerative Braking Systems (RBS), Life-Cycle Smart Environmental Control Systems (LCSMS), and various energy storage systems. While Flywheel Energy Storage (FES) technology and LCSMS initially exhibit high marginal abatement costs, these decline significantly before 2030. In contrast, Photovoltaic (PV) generation technology maintains the lowest marginal costs throughout. Investment optimization shows that the shares allocated to PV and LCSMS increase linearly, jointly approaching 85% by 2060. Consequently, investment in PV and LCSMS should be progressively scaled up to enhance carbon reduction performance. This study provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of urban rail transit policies and supports the achievement of the dual carbon strategy goals, holding significant theoretical and social value.

城市轨道交通是能源密集型行业，碳排放量巨大，特别是在运营阶段。尽管节能技术迅速出现，但缺乏对其碳减排效率的系统量化，阻碍了比较评估和知情决策。本研究通过开发关键节能技术的碳排放计算框架来解决这一差距，并结合增强的巴斯扩散模型来预测未来的排放。进一步运用边际消减成本分析和多约束内点法，制定了包括能源、车辆、存储和网络系统在内的优化、多维度集成策略。结果表明，在碳排放影响方面，各技术分别为：永磁同步电机牵引系统、再生制动系统、全生命周期智能环境控制系统和各种储能系统。虽然飞轮储能（FES）技术和LCSMS最初表现出很高的边际减排成本，但到2030年，这些成本将大幅下降。相比之下，光伏发电技术始终保持着最低的边际成本。投资优化显示，分配给光伏和LCSMS的份额线性增长，到2060年共同接近85%。因此，应逐步扩大对光伏和LCSMS的投资，以提高碳减排绩效。本研究为城市轨道交通政策的制定提供理论依据，支持双碳战略目标的实现，具有重要的理论和社会价值。

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引用次数: 0