Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-08-30DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101596
John Zacharias
A select group of world cities has passenger boat services as an integral part of their public transport system. Early Bangkok had an almost exclusively water-based transport system, largely replaced by roads with rail added in the 20th century. Boat services were restored on a limited number of waterways and have grown rapidly in popularity and patronage, including for commuting to work and school. In this study, the service coverage of the urban territory of one such boat service is examined, along with its time efficiency. The Saen Saep service parallels Phetchaburi Road, which is at saturation. The boat service provides a faster service than is available by car, bus or motorcycle on this transport corridor. There remains considerable growth potential of the boat service since it is the exclusive user of the khlong. This study supports the view that water-based public transport could be greatly expanded to become a central feature of Bangkok’s mobility system.
{"title":"Water-based public transport in Bangkok – Efficiency, efficacy and carrying capacity","authors":"John Zacharias","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A select group of world cities has passenger boat services as an integral part of their public transport system. Early Bangkok had an almost exclusively water-based transport system, largely replaced by roads with rail added in the 20th century. Boat services were restored on a limited number of waterways and have grown rapidly in popularity and patronage, including for commuting to work and school. In this study, the service coverage of the urban territory of one such boat service is examined, along with its time efficiency. The Saen Saep service parallels Phetchaburi Road, which is at saturation. The boat service provides a faster service than is available by car, bus or motorcycle on this transport corridor. There remains considerable growth potential of the boat service since it is the exclusive user of the <em>khlong</em>. This study supports the view that water-based public transport could be greatly expanded to become a central feature of Bangkok’s mobility system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101596"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101654
Behzad Bamdad Mehrabani , Vincent Henrion , Sebastian Hörl , Nikola Ivanov , Bojana Mirkovic , Juan Blasco , Elke Bossaert
The emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM) offers transformative potential for airport accessibility, promising faster and more personalised connections to major air hubs. However, accurately forecasting the demand for these future transport modes remains a key challenge due to their limited real-world presence and reliance on speculative user preferences. This paper presents a robust and flexible methodology for assessing the future modal split of airport access, integrating both current and emerging mobility options within a discrete choice modelling (DCM) framework. Using a nested logit model calibrated on survey data from over 29,000 Belgian passengers at Brussels Airport, we developed a general-coefficient-based utility specification that enables the integration of hypothetical modes such as UAM and CCAM. This model was then applied to a synthetic population of airport passengers generated via iterative proportional fitting and spatial enrichment. By incorporating realistic operational assumptions for UAM and CCAM, we estimated demand under future scenarios. The results indicate that UAM and CCAM could capture 4.7% and 6.8% of airport access trips respectively, with modal shifts primarily originating from taxi and private car users. This demand modelling framework is assumption-agnostic and adaptable, providing a versatile tool for policy analysis and infrastructure planning as these technologies approach deployment. Future applications will benefit from updated data as these services are piloted, supporting more precise and policy-relevant demand estimations.
{"title":"Modelling future of airport accessibility: synthetic population and discrete choice model approach to UAM and CCAM demand at Brussels airport","authors":"Behzad Bamdad Mehrabani , Vincent Henrion , Sebastian Hörl , Nikola Ivanov , Bojana Mirkovic , Juan Blasco , Elke Bossaert","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM) offers transformative potential for airport accessibility, promising faster and more personalised connections to major air hubs. However, accurately forecasting the demand for these future transport modes remains a key challenge due to their limited real-world presence and reliance on speculative user preferences. This paper presents a robust and flexible methodology for assessing the future modal split of airport access, integrating both current and emerging mobility options within a discrete choice modelling (DCM) framework. Using a nested logit model calibrated on survey data from over 29,000 Belgian passengers at Brussels Airport, we developed a general-coefficient-based utility specification that enables the integration of hypothetical modes such as UAM and CCAM. This model was then applied to a synthetic population of airport passengers generated via iterative proportional fitting and spatial enrichment. By incorporating realistic operational assumptions for UAM and CCAM, we estimated demand under future scenarios. The results indicate that UAM and CCAM could capture 4.7% and 6.8% of airport access trips respectively, with modal shifts primarily originating from taxi and private car users. This demand modelling framework is assumption-agnostic and adaptable, providing a versatile tool for policy analysis and infrastructure planning as these technologies approach deployment. Future applications will benefit from updated data as these services are piloted, supporting more precise and policy-relevant demand estimations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101644
Marta Borowska-Stefańska , Tomasz Komornicki , Michał Kowalski , Cezary Plesiński , Szymon Wiśniewski
The aim of the article is to measure changes in the level and shape of the diurnal profiles of car traffic and bus demand in Rzeszów (Poland) over 2018–2024, and to assess the persistence of these changes. The study analyzes the interplay between transport supply (e.g., the organization and functioning of public transport) and demand (i.e., behavioral changes among residents), offering a comprehensive view of how the pandemic and the geopolitical crisis associated with the war in Ukraine disrupted mobility patterns and prompted adaptive responses within the urban mobility system. Rzeszów, as a dynamically developing urban center, provides a valuable case for examining the long-term implications of pandemic-induced restrictions. By observing the forced reduction in mobility during the pandemic, the study identifies where and to what extent spatial mobility can be limited without compromising the resilience of the socio-economic system. This empirical context offers a unique opportunity to explore how urban mobility can be managed more effectively and where unnecessary or excessive movement might be reduced in pursuit of broader sustainability goals. The findings contribute to current European and global debates on sustainable urban mobility, demonstrating that targeted mobility management − guided by evidence from real-world constraints − can support the transition toward more resilient, efficient, and environmentally responsible transport systems. In light of broader challenges such as war in Ukraine, inflation, migration, and the digitalization of transport services, the Rzeszów case exemplifies how cities can respond to disruptions while aligning with long-term policy objectives related to climate neutrality, accessibility, and smart urban growth. Policy implications are articulated across four scales. Citywide, the observed re-profiling of demand, subdued mornings and stronger afternoon/early-evening activity, supports selective mobility reduction and time-sensitive allocation of public-transport supply and traffic management. Corridor-level, central corridors and radial approaches to the city centre emerge as candidates for strengthening collective transport, while peripheral distributor corridors with rising car pressure merit targeted service upgrades paired with calibrated demand restraint. At the junction-level, inner-city junctions and transfer nodes are suitable for signal priority, access management, and turn-movement control; time-of-day management should prioritise 14:00–18:00 and after 18:00.
{"title":"Changes in car-bus mobility in the context of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in Rzeszów, Poland (2018–2024)","authors":"Marta Borowska-Stefańska , Tomasz Komornicki , Michał Kowalski , Cezary Plesiński , Szymon Wiśniewski","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of the article is to measure changes in the level and shape of the diurnal profiles of car traffic and bus demand in Rzeszów (Poland) over 2018–2024, and to assess the persistence of these changes. The study analyzes the interplay between transport supply (e.g., the organization and functioning of public transport) and demand (i.e., behavioral changes among residents), offering a comprehensive view of how the pandemic and the geopolitical crisis associated with the war in Ukraine disrupted mobility patterns and prompted adaptive responses within the urban mobility system. Rzeszów, as a dynamically developing urban center, provides a valuable case for examining the long-term implications of pandemic-induced restrictions. By observing the forced reduction in mobility during the pandemic, the study identifies where and to what extent spatial mobility can be limited without compromising the resilience of the socio-economic system. This empirical context offers a unique opportunity to explore how urban mobility can be managed more effectively and where unnecessary or excessive movement might be reduced in pursuit of broader sustainability goals. The findings contribute to current European and global debates on sustainable urban mobility, demonstrating that targeted mobility management − guided by evidence from real-world constraints − can support the transition toward more resilient, efficient, and environmentally responsible transport systems. In light of broader challenges such as war in Ukraine, inflation, migration, and the digitalization of transport services, the Rzeszów case exemplifies how cities can respond to disruptions while aligning with long-term policy objectives related to climate neutrality, accessibility, and smart urban growth. Policy implications are articulated across four scales. Citywide, the observed re-profiling of demand, subdued mornings and stronger afternoon/early-evening activity, supports selective mobility reduction and time-sensitive allocation of public-transport supply and traffic management. Corridor-level, central corridors and radial approaches to the city centre emerge as candidates for strengthening collective transport, while peripheral distributor corridors with rising car pressure merit targeted service upgrades paired with calibrated demand restraint. At the junction-level, inner-city junctions and transfer nodes are suitable for signal priority, access management, and turn-movement control; time-of-day management should prioritise 14:00–18:00 and after 18:00.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101644"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145570000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101732
Carlos Sampaio , Margarida C. Coelho , Eloísa Macedo , Jorge M. Bandeira
This paper evaluates pricing policies to reduce transport-related external costs in an intercity corridor (Aveiro-Coimbra, Portugal). We build a numerical platform that updates multimodal demand via arc-elasticities and re-estimates external costs with flow-dependent linear functions calibrated for the corridor. Results show that a combined package, fare free rail plus + 5% fuel tax (increasing from 40% to 45%), delivers the strongest overall outcome, cutting external costs by 7.1% while raising state revenue by 2.1%. We primarily assess changes in social welfare driven by reductions in transport-related external costs and additionally report the associated changes in state revenue as a complementary fiscal metric. We also discuss distributional impacts, as equity concerns are central to the political acceptability of pricing reforms: uniform fuel-tax increases may be regressive where public transport alternatives are weak, motivating an “invest first, then price” sequencing. The methodology is transferable to similar corridors and supports evidence-based pricing design.
{"title":"Designing efficient pricing models to mitigate transport-related externalities in intercity corridors","authors":"Carlos Sampaio , Margarida C. Coelho , Eloísa Macedo , Jorge M. Bandeira","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates pricing policies to reduce transport-related external costs in an intercity corridor (Aveiro-Coimbra, Portugal). We build a numerical platform that updates multimodal demand via arc-elasticities and re-estimates external costs with flow-dependent linear functions calibrated for the corridor. Results show that a combined package, fare free rail plus + 5% fuel tax (increasing from 40% to 45%), delivers the strongest overall outcome, cutting external costs by 7.1% while raising state revenue by 2.1%. We primarily assess changes in social welfare driven by reductions in transport-related external costs and additionally report the associated changes in state revenue as a complementary fiscal metric. We also discuss distributional impacts, as equity concerns are central to the political acceptability of pricing reforms: uniform fuel-tax increases may be regressive where public transport alternatives are weak, motivating an “invest first, then price” sequencing. The methodology is transferable to similar corridors and supports evidence-based pricing design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101732"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-30DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101737
Samet Karakaş , Mevlüt Üzülmez , Erkam Emin Ayvaz
The air transport industry is undergoing a significant transformation, ranging from operational processes to digitalization, driven by increasing global mobility. This transformation has evolved airport management from a mere infrastructure service into a complex, data-driven, multi-stakeholder, and technology-oriented discipline. The aim of this study is to examine 7,542 academic publications on “air traffic management,” “airport operations,” “airport performance,” and “airport planning” indexed in the Scopus database between 1928 and 2025 using bibliometric analysis methods. Analyses conducted using VOSviewer software revealed that the literature is predominantly concentrated in Engineering (37.1%) and Computer Science (18.1%). The research findings indicate that while airport management literature historically developed around the USA and NASA, there has been a significant increase in publication volume from Chinese institutions (e.g., Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics) in recent years. Thematic analyses demonstrate a shift in the field from conventional topics such as “safety” and “air traffic control” towards autonomous and predictive systems involving “machine learning,” “trajectory prediction,” and “artificial intelligence”. Consequently, this study predicts that future research in airport management will be shaped around digitalization and artificial intelligence, offering a strategic roadmap for researchers regarding interdisciplinary collaborations.
{"title":"Research trends in airport management literature: a bibliometric analysis","authors":"Samet Karakaş , Mevlüt Üzülmez , Erkam Emin Ayvaz","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101737","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101737","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The air transport industry is undergoing a significant transformation, ranging from operational processes to digitalization, driven by increasing global mobility. This transformation has evolved airport management from a mere infrastructure service into a complex, data-driven, multi-stakeholder, and technology-oriented discipline. The aim of this study is to examine 7,542 academic publications on “air traffic management,” “airport operations,” “airport performance,” and “airport planning” indexed in the Scopus database between 1928 and 2025 using bibliometric analysis methods. Analyses conducted using VOSviewer software revealed that the literature is predominantly concentrated in Engineering (37.1%) and Computer Science (18.1%). The research findings indicate that while airport management literature historically developed around the USA and NASA, there has been a significant increase in publication volume from Chinese institutions (e.g., Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics) in recent years. Thematic analyses demonstrate a shift in the field from conventional topics such as “safety” and “air traffic control” towards autonomous and predictive systems involving “machine learning,” “trajectory prediction,” and “artificial intelligence”. Consequently, this study predicts that future research in airport management will be shaped around digitalization and artificial intelligence, offering a strategic roadmap for researchers regarding interdisciplinary collaborations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101737"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101698
Fernando Torres , Joel Mendez , Alex Diener , Ward Lyles
Bus stops in the United States vary widely in the amenities they provide riders. Commonly, bus stops consist of a sign on a pole, although some feature sheltered structures, benches, ADA ramps, trash cans, and even art. Existing literature highlights the importance of bus stop amenities to protect riders and provide comfort while waiting for their bus. Emerging research indicates that bus stop amenities are not equitably distributed to members of disadvantaged communities, who often are also transit dependent. We explore the socio-economic factors and transit system characteristics associated with the distribution of bus stops and bus stop amenities at the block group level in the city of St. Louis, MO, a major United States city with a legacy of racial segregation. Using census data, ArcGIS, and linear regressions, we find that even though minority populations are positively correlated with overall bus stops, they are negatively correlated with stop amenities, particularly with shelters. We also find a positive relationship between bus stop amenities and jobs. Even though bus stops are usually overlooked given the tight budgets of transit agencies, the addition of amenities can protect riders and attract potential new users. Taking an equity perspective, we emphasize the need to understand and even out how transportation infrastructure is distributed among disadvantaged groups in order to address any transit and urban planning disparities.
{"title":"Explaining the variation of bus stop Amenities: The case of St. Louis, MO, USA","authors":"Fernando Torres , Joel Mendez , Alex Diener , Ward Lyles","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bus stops in the United States vary widely in the amenities they provide riders. Commonly, bus stops consist of a sign on a pole, although some feature sheltered structures, benches, ADA ramps, trash cans, and even art. Existing literature highlights the importance of bus stop amenities to protect riders and provide comfort while waiting for their bus. Emerging research indicates that bus stop amenities are not equitably distributed to members of disadvantaged communities, who often are also transit dependent. We explore the socio-economic factors and transit system characteristics associated with the distribution of bus stops and bus stop amenities at the block group level in the city of St. Louis, MO, a major United States city with a legacy of racial segregation. Using census data, ArcGIS, and linear regressions, we find that even though minority populations are positively correlated with overall bus stops, they are negatively correlated with stop amenities, particularly with shelters. We also find a positive relationship between bus stop amenities and jobs. Even though bus stops are usually overlooked given the tight budgets of transit agencies, the addition of amenities can protect riders and attract potential new users. Taking an equity perspective, we emphasize the need to understand and even out how transportation infrastructure is distributed among disadvantaged groups in order to address any transit and urban planning disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101698"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101696
M. Ashifur Rahman , Tara Tolford , Siam Junaed , Subasish Das , Ahmed Hossain , Milhan Moomen , Elisabeta Mitran , Julius Codjoe
Interstate highways prioritize high-speed, long-distance, uninterrupted traffic, and exclude facilities for pedestrian access. This stems from the primary goal of facilitating efficient vehicular travel while minimizing hazards, as infrastructure like pedestrian crossings or sidewalks could disrupt traffic flow, increase crash risks, and impair interstate mobility. Despite regulations prohibiting pedestrians on U.S. interstates, fatal vehicle–pedestrian crashes are increasing, with limited studies addressing the issue. This study extracts pedestrian crash data (total = 2,321) from the Fatality Analysis and Reporting System (FARS) database (2015–2019) and uses Association Rule Mining (ARM) to identify patterns in pedestrian actions associated with fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates. Key findings indicate that posted speed limits of 60 mph or higher and multiple traffic lanes (3–4) are common factors contributing to fatalities in pedestrian crossing-related crashes. Pedestrian fatalities involving walking or running along interstates frequently occur between midnight and early morning, near ramps, in poorly lit rural areas, and on roads with posted speed limits of 70 mph or higher. Crashes involving disabled vehicles are linked to driver distraction and alcohol impairment, typically occurring on interstate shoulders. Hit-and-run crashes, work zone incidents, and alcohol-related crashes predominantly involve male pedestrians and drivers, and often occur in rural areas or on weekends. This comprehensive analysis enhances the understanding of fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates, providing valuable insights into potential context-based strategies for transportation safety planners and policymakers.
{"title":"Pedestrian fatalities on U.S. interstates: a pattern mining approach to investigating pedestrian actions and policy implications","authors":"M. Ashifur Rahman , Tara Tolford , Siam Junaed , Subasish Das , Ahmed Hossain , Milhan Moomen , Elisabeta Mitran , Julius Codjoe","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Interstate highways prioritize high-speed, long-distance, uninterrupted traffic, and exclude facilities for pedestrian access. This stems from the primary goal of facilitating efficient vehicular travel while minimizing hazards, as infrastructure like pedestrian crossings or sidewalks could disrupt traffic flow, increase crash risks, and impair interstate mobility. Despite regulations prohibiting pedestrians on U.S. interstates, fatal vehicle–pedestrian crashes are increasing, with limited studies addressing the issue. This study extracts pedestrian crash data (total = 2,321) from the Fatality Analysis and Reporting System (FARS) database (2015–2019) and uses Association Rule Mining (ARM) to identify patterns in pedestrian actions associated with fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates. Key findings indicate that posted speed limits of 60 mph or higher and multiple traffic lanes (3–4) are common factors contributing to fatalities in pedestrian crossing-related crashes. Pedestrian fatalities involving walking or running along interstates frequently occur between midnight and early morning, near ramps, in poorly lit rural areas, and on roads with posted speed limits of 70 mph or higher. Crashes involving disabled vehicles are linked to driver distraction and alcohol impairment, typically occurring on interstate shoulders. Hit-and-run crashes, work zone incidents, and alcohol-related crashes predominantly involve male pedestrians and drivers, and often occur in rural areas or on weekends. This comprehensive analysis enhances the understanding of fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates, providing valuable insights into potential context-based strategies for transportation safety planners and policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101696"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101666
Ittirit Mohamad
This study provides a comparative analysis of highway road accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders in Thailand, utilizing a random forest approach to uncover pivotal factors contributing to accidents within these age groups. The dataset, comprising 33,875 highway accident cases recorded between 2015 and 2020, was sourced from official government agency (Thailand Department of Public Disaster Prevention and Mitigation) reports. Accidents were categorized based on multiple variables, including weather conditions, road infrastructure, and human behaviors. The findings reveal that senior motorcycle riders are significantly more likely to experience fatal outcomes compared to their younger counterparts. The random forest algorithm demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, achieving accuracy rates of 67.5 % (AUC: 0.721) for senior riders and 73 % (AUC: 0.745) for young riders. Key contributing factors to accidents differed notably between the two groups: while human factors such as intoxicated riding and riding during daylight with proper lighting were predominant among young riders, environmental factors, including road and weather conditions, played a more critical role in accidents involving senior riders. This study highlights the effectiveness of the random forest algorithm in predicting accident outcomes and identifying distinct risk factors for different age groups. By uncovering these differences, the research provides valuable insights into the underlying causes of highway accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders. The results underscore the need for tailored interventions and policies to mitigate risks for these vulnerable populations, thereby enhancing road safety outcomes.
{"title":"Analyzing heterogeneity in motorcycle crashes: a comparative study of senior and young riders using the random forest approach","authors":"Ittirit Mohamad","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides a comparative analysis of highway road accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders in Thailand, utilizing a random forest approach to uncover pivotal factors contributing to accidents within these age groups. The dataset, comprising 33,875 highway accident cases recorded between 2015 and 2020, was sourced from official government agency (Thailand Department of Public Disaster Prevention and Mitigation) reports. Accidents were categorized based on multiple variables, including weather conditions, road infrastructure, and human behaviors. The findings reveal that senior motorcycle riders are significantly more likely to experience fatal outcomes compared to their younger counterparts. The random forest algorithm demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, achieving accuracy rates of 67.5 % (AUC: 0.721) for senior riders and 73 % (AUC: 0.745) for young riders. Key contributing factors to accidents differed notably between the two groups: while human factors such as intoxicated riding and riding during daylight with proper lighting were predominant among young riders, environmental factors, including road and weather conditions, played a more critical role in accidents involving senior riders. This study highlights the effectiveness of the random forest algorithm in predicting accident outcomes and identifying distinct risk factors for different age groups. By uncovering these differences, the research provides valuable insights into the underlying causes of highway accidents involving senior and young motorcycle riders. The results underscore the need for tailored interventions and policies to mitigate risks for these vulnerable populations, thereby enhancing road safety outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101678
Achmad Pratama Rifai , Fitri Trapsilawati , Erlangga Satrio Agung , Ari Widyanti , Roger Woodman , Auditya Purwandini Sutarto , Nachnul Ansori
This study investigates the public adoption of Partially Autonomous Vehicles (PAV) and Fully Autonomous Vehicles (FAV) in Indonesia, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict willingness to use (WTU) and willingness to buy (WTB). Data were collected through an online survey of 1,251 Indonesian respondents, considering 38 socio-demographic, psychological, and mobility factors. Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), predictive models were developed and evaluated. The results highlight that ANN models exhibit higher accuracy for FAV predictions (MAPE = 11.246 %), while SVM models demonstrate efficiency with shorter training times. The results show that trust, perceived safety, and social influence strongly shape adoption intentions, with behavioural complexity increasing from PAV to FAV. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders preparing for autonomous mobility in Indonesia. The study acknowledges limitations related to online sampling and the absence of longitudinal behavioral data.
{"title":"Machine learning for predicting the public adoption of partial and fully automated vehicle in Indonesia","authors":"Achmad Pratama Rifai , Fitri Trapsilawati , Erlangga Satrio Agung , Ari Widyanti , Roger Woodman , Auditya Purwandini Sutarto , Nachnul Ansori","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101678","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101678","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the public adoption of Partially Autonomous Vehicles (PAV) and Fully Autonomous Vehicles (FAV) in Indonesia, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict willingness to use (WTU) and willingness to buy (WTB). Data were collected through an online survey of 1,251 Indonesian respondents, considering 38 socio-demographic, psychological, and mobility factors. Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), predictive models were developed and evaluated. The results highlight that ANN models exhibit higher accuracy for FAV predictions (MAPE = 11.246 %), while SVM models demonstrate efficiency with shorter training times. The results show that trust, perceived safety, and social influence strongly shape adoption intentions, with behavioural complexity increasing from PAV to FAV. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders preparing for autonomous mobility in Indonesia. The study acknowledges limitations related to online sampling and the absence of longitudinal behavioral data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101678"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101677
Jayrill T. Condeza , Hitomi Sato , Tomio Miwa
Using behavioral theories, such as the modified unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), we extended the analysis of non-infrastructure travel demand management (TDM) strategies, such as flexible work arrangements (FWA), in managing the urban mobility of employees and managers beyond the constraints of classical transport policy evaluation. This study uses the classical UTAUT constructs – performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influence (SI), facilitating conditions (FC), and personal attitude (PA) – and additional psychological constructs, subjective wellbeing (SWB), work-life balance (WLB), and employee satisfaction (ES), to capture the underlying nuances, motivations, and concerns regarding the behavioral intention (BI) of adopting FWA. We further conducted a multigroup analysis to investigate whether the acceptance behavior of key stakeholders in the government and private sectors differ significantly. The findings suggest that the significant influence and perceived benefits of PA, PE, and WLB among employees and managers reveal the potential impacts of FWA in decongesting metropolitan urban spaces, especially during peak hours, reinforcing the idea of employing non-infrastructure TDM policies to help alleviate the worsening traffic conditions in major thoroughfares of the Philippines, as stipulated in the National Transport Policy. Additionally, these results identify the key areas of concern for both employees and managers affecting FWA adoption, enabling policymakers and organizational leaders to formulate more equitable sector-specific policies and guidelines to help achieve and sustain the identified potential benefits of time and cost savings, improved work performance, better quality of life, and positive environmental outcomes.
{"title":"Understanding employee and managerial acceptance of flexible working arrangements as a transport policy in the Philippines: A sectoral comparative analysis","authors":"Jayrill T. Condeza , Hitomi Sato , Tomio Miwa","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101677","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101677","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using behavioral theories, such as the modified unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), we extended the analysis of non-infrastructure travel demand management (TDM) strategies, such as flexible work arrangements (FWA), in managing the urban mobility of employees and managers beyond the constraints of classical transport policy evaluation. This study uses the classical UTAUT constructs – performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influence (SI), facilitating conditions (FC), and personal attitude (PA) – and additional psychological constructs, subjective wellbeing (SWB), work-life balance (WLB), and employee satisfaction (ES), to capture the underlying nuances, motivations, and concerns regarding the behavioral intention (BI) of adopting FWA. We further conducted a multigroup analysis to investigate whether the acceptance behavior of key stakeholders in the government and private sectors differ significantly. The findings suggest that the significant influence and perceived benefits of PA, PE, and WLB among employees and managers reveal the potential impacts of FWA in decongesting metropolitan urban spaces, especially during peak hours, reinforcing the idea of employing non-infrastructure TDM policies to help alleviate the worsening traffic conditions in major thoroughfares of the Philippines, as stipulated in the National Transport Policy. Additionally, these results identify the key areas of concern for both employees and managers affecting FWA adoption, enabling policymakers and organizational leaders to formulate more equitable sector-specific policies and guidelines to help achieve and sustain the identified potential benefits of time and cost savings, improved work performance, better quality of life, and positive environmental outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101677"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号