Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚政府国内借款对货币政策利率传递的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003

Enock Mwakalila

The central bank should be able to play a role in an economy through monetary policy. Controlling the interest rate is a key monetary policy instrument the central bank uses. Increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks in Tanzania may counteract this instrument and its intended impact. Thus, this study empirically analyzes how government debt to commercial banks affects the transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates in Tanzania. Quarterly time series data is collected from 2010 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short and long-run relationship, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The results show that increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks prevents the trickle-down effect of the monetary policy (repo) rate on lending rates. Therefore, the study recommends that the government reduce domestic borrowings to fund its budget deficit, especially spending on projects that the private sector can implement better.

央行应该能够通过货币政策在经济中发挥作用。控制利率是中央银行使用的一项关键货币政策工具。坦桑尼亚政府从国内商业银行借款的增加可能会抵消这一工具及其预期的影响。因此，本研究实证分析了坦桑尼亚政府对商业银行的债务如何影响货币政策利率对贷款利率的传导。季度时间序列数据采集时间为2010 - 2023年。采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型估计和定界协整检验来建立短期和长期关系，并对结果进行鲁棒性诊断检验。结果表明，政府从国内商业银行借贷的增加阻止了货币政策（回购）利率对贷款利率的涓滴效应。因此，该研究建议政府减少国内借款，为其预算赤字提供资金，特别是在私营部门能够更好地实施的项目上的支出。

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Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes 五十年来绿色gdp趋同的政策教训：增强可持续性和经济成果

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002

Saša Stjepanović , Daniel Tomić , Marinko Škare

This study analyzes the convergence of Green GDP among 160 countries from 1970 to 2019, emphasizing the pivotal role of environmental policies in shaping sustainable economic outcomes. By comparing traditional and Green GDP (includes environmental degradation), this paper identifies distinct economic clusters or “convergence clubs” and reveals how policy-driven changes influence these classifications. The findings highlight the significant impact of environmental policies on economic convergence and propose applicative policy recommendations to foster sustainable growth, making this study essential for policymakers engaged in economic and environmental planning. This study demonstrates the long-term convergence of the selected countries' economic growth, influenced by their disparate commitments to sustainable practices and regulatory frameworks that govern environmental protection. Thus, regardless of the variations across countries and their environmental policies, diverse economic strategies tend to produce similar outcomes in the long term.

本研究分析了1970年至2019年160个国家绿色GDP的趋同，强调了环境政策在塑造可持续经济成果方面的关键作用。通过比较传统GDP和绿色GDP（包括环境退化），本文确定了不同的经济集群或“收敛俱乐部”，并揭示了政策驱动的变化如何影响这些分类。研究结果强调了环境政策对经济趋同的重大影响，并提出了促进可持续增长的适用政策建议，使本研究对从事经济和环境规划的决策者至关重要。本研究表明，所选国家的经济增长长期趋同，这是受到它们对可持续实践和管理环境保护的监管框架的不同承诺的影响。因此，无论各国及其环境政策的差异如何，从长远来看，不同的经济战略往往会产生相似的结果。

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Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU? 金融发展是否改善了东亚经济联盟公共卫生支出对自付医疗费用的影响？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003

Jacques Boundioa , Souleymane Diallo

To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, namely to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, it is important to have a sustainable health expenditure model. However, countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) are characterized by higher levels of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. This situation limits access to medical care, makes many people vulnerable to poverty and deviates from the goal of universal health coverage (UHC). This article analyzes the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in WAEMU over the period 2000–2020 by taking into account financial development. With the quantile regression technique for panel data, the results show that the increase in public health expenditure leads to a reduction in out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Moreover, the decrease becomes more significant when public health expenditure interacts with financial development. Thus, improving protection against financial risk related to health expenditure borne by households in the WAEMU requires the establishment of a well-developed health financing system oriented towards an increase in public health expenditure. Policies aimed at further developing the financial sector could have a multiplier effect on the reduction of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare through public expenditure.

为实现可持续发展目标3，即确保健康生活和促进所有人的福祉，必须建立可持续的卫生支出模式。然而，西非经济和货币联盟（WAEMU）国家的特点是医疗保健的自付水平较高。这种情况限制了获得医疗服务的机会，使许多人容易陷入贫困，并偏离了全民健康覆盖的目标。本文通过考虑金融发展，分析了2000-2020年期间WAEMU公共卫生支出对自付医疗费用的影响。利用分位数回归技术对面板数据进行分析，结果表明，公共卫生支出的增加导致医疗保健自付费用的减少。此外，当公共卫生支出与财政发展相互作用时，减少幅度会更大。因此，要提高对家庭卫生支出相关财务风险的防范，就需要建立完善的卫生融资体系，以增加公共卫生支出为目标。旨在进一步发展金融部门的政策可以产生乘数效应，通过公共支出减少医疗保健的自付费用。

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Identifying the ‘deep roots’ of economic freedom with implications for policy and economic reform 确定经济自由的“深层根源”及其对政策和经济改革的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.002

James W. Saunoris , James E. Payne , Russell S. Sobel

Because of the importance of economic freedom for a country’s prosperity and growth, subsequent studies now try to uncover which factors explain the cross-country differences in economic freedom. Based upon Lawson, Murphy, and Powell’s (2020) recent literature review we provide the first empirical examination of the relative importance of all 18 of the key “deep root” factors they identify across the published literature. We employ a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach that is ideally suited for model identification and provides a statistical means to rank the importance of these deep root factors. Our results suggest that (in order of importance) latitude, exitability as measured by a country’s shape and coastal access, genetic distance, religion, and French legal origins are the most important of the deep root determinants of economic freedom. Policy implications of our findings are also discussed.

由于经济自由对一个国家的繁荣和增长非常重要，随后的研究试图揭示哪些因素可以解释经济自由的跨国差异。根据劳森、墨菲和鲍威尔（2020 年）最近的文献综述，我们首次对他们在已发表文献中确定的全部 18 个关键 "深层次 "因素的相对重要性进行了实证研究。我们采用了贝叶斯模型平均法（BMA），这种方法非常适合模型识别，并提供了一种统计方法来对这些深层次因素的重要性进行排序。我们的研究结果表明（按重要性排序），纬度、以国家形状和沿海通道衡量的可退出性、遗传距离、宗教和法国法律渊源是经济自由最重要的深层决定因素。本文还讨论了我们的研究结果对政策的影响。

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Addressing climatic uncertainty through fleet optimization for robust winter road maintenance policy design 解决气候的不确定性，通过车队优化稳健的冬季道路养护政策设计

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.001

Nadeem Akbar Najar , Arnab Jana , D. Parthasarathy

Effective winter road maintenance (WRM) is essential in regions with heavy snowfall, but climate change has increased the unpredictability and severity of winter weather, complicating WRM planning and policy. This study uses the Taguchi method to optimize WRM strategies, focusing on fleet configurations and maintenance practices. By integrating advanced technologies and data-driven decision-making, the research aims to provide policymakers with evidence-based recommendations to enhance WRM robustness and efficiency. The findings offer actionable insights for improving road safety, minimizing economic disruptions, and optimizing resource allocation under climatic uncertainty, ultimately supporting more effective and sustainable WRM operations.

有效的冬季道路养护（WRM）在大雪地区至关重要，但气候变化增加了冬季天气的不可预测性和严重性，使冬季道路养护规划和政策复杂化。本研究使用田口方法来优化WRM策略，重点关注车队配置和维护实践。通过整合先进技术和数据驱动决策，本研究旨在为决策者提供基于证据的建议，以提高水资源管理的稳健性和效率。研究结果为在气候不确定性下改善道路安全、尽量减少经济中断和优化资源配置提供了可操作的见解，最终支持更有效和可持续的水资源管理运营。

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Do debt relief and fiscal rules improve public debt sustainability? The experience of sub-Sahara African countries 债务减免和财政规则能否改善公共债务的可持续性？撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经验

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.007

Attahir B. Abubakar , W. David McCausland , Ioannis Theodossiou

The sub-Sahara African (SSA) region accounts for 33 of the 39 Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) with many of these countries facing challenges in public debt management. This paper examines issues that are key to improving the debt situation in the region. Specifically, the study investigates two key questions namely whether the adoption of fiscal rules and debt relief improve public debt sustainability. What factors reduce the public debt of SSA countries? Interestingly, the findings reveal that while debt relief improves debt sustainability, the imposition of fiscal rules threatens the debt sustainability of the region. Further, higher economic growth and increasing government balance are instrumental to reducing public debt. These findings have far-reaching policy implications for public debt management in developing countries.

在39个重债穷国中，撒哈拉以南非洲地区占33个，其中许多国家在公共债务管理方面面临挑战。本文探讨了改善该地区债务状况的关键问题。具体而言，该研究调查了两个关键问题，即财政规则的采用和债务减免是否提高了公共债务的可持续性。哪些因素减少了SSA国家的公共债务？有趣的是，研究结果显示，虽然债务减免提高了债务可持续性，但财政规则的实施威胁到该地区的债务可持续性。此外，更高的经济增长和增加的政府收支平衡有助于减少公共债务。这些发现对发展中国家的公共债务管理具有深远的政策影响。

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Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003

Ismael Fofana , Ramos E. Mabugu , Alhassane Camara , Babatunde Abidoye

South Africa has one of the most extensive social assistance systems among developing countries; however, the proportion of the population below the national poverty lines remains relatively high. Thus, we develop a micro-macro framework to assess the economic growth implications of expanding South Africa’s social grant system under alternative conditions. We find that conditional poverty-alleviation social transfers foster growth while unconditional redistribution towards lower-income earners can hinder economic growth. From policy perspectives, we show that the transfer of purchasing power to extremely poor beneficiaries and their economic participation are required for poverty-alleviation social transfers to have positive economic outcomes.

南非拥有发展中国家中最广泛的社会援助制度之一；然而，低于国家贫困线的人口比例仍然相对较高。因此，我们开发了一个微观宏观框架来评估在其他条件下扩大南非社会补助制度对经济增长的影响。我们发现，有条件的扶贫社会转移有利于经济增长，而无条件的向低收入者再分配则会阻碍经济增长。从政策角度来看，我们表明购买力转移到极端贫困受益人及其经济参与是扶贫社会转移产生积极经济成果的必要条件。

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Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability 财政政策和公共债务：政府投资对促进可持续性最为有效

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002

Giovanna Ciaffi , Matteo Deleidi , Lorenzo Di Domenico

This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.

本文旨在量化政府支出及其组成部分（即政府消费和投资）对产出和公共债务可持续性的影响。本地预测方法应用于1981-2017年期间14个经合组织国家的数据集。财政政策冲击已通过布兰查德和佩罗蒂策略以及基于财政巩固事件的叙事方法确定。政府总支出乘数高于单位，政府投资乘数高于消费乘数。尽管所有财政政策冲击都会降低公共债务与gdp的比率，但政府投资是促进公共债务可持续性的最有效工具。

引用次数: 0

Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足：南非的政策设计与推广

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009

Isaac Koomson , Clifford Afoakwah , Martinson Ankrah Twumasi

We examine the effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight in post-apartheid South Africa, which has a strong history of systemic racial segregation. Using five waves of longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS), and employing instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods, we find that racial diversity significantly reduces child stunting and underweight. This result is consistent across alternative measures of racial diversity, child stunting and underweight, and is also robust to different endogeneity-correction methods. The negative effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight is more pronounced among children under 5 years of age. Further analyses highlight increased employment opportunities, food expenditure per capita and financial inclusion as important channels through which racial diversity decreases stunting and underweight. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.

在种族隔离历史悠久的种族隔离后南非，我们研究了种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的影响。利用国家收入动态调查（NIDS）的五波纵向数据，并采用工具变量和倾向得分匹配方法，我们发现种族多样性显著降低了儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的程度。这一结果与其他衡量种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的方法是一致的，而且在采用不同的内生性校正方法时也是稳健的。种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的负面影响在 5 岁以下儿童中更为明显。进一步的分析强调，增加就业机会、人均食品支出和金融包容性是种族多样性减少发育迟缓和体重不足的重要渠道。我们讨论了这些发现的政策影响。

引用次数: 0

Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006

Suale Karimu

Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.

加纳与国际货币基金组织的合作由来已久。由于国内宏观经济稳定性不断恶化，加纳历届政府都曾寻求国际货币基金组织的经济救助。本文探讨了加纳与国际货币基金组织合作的历史以及相关的宏观经济结果，并为救助之后的经济结构调整和增长提供了借鉴。本文探讨了关键宏观经济变量的共同模式以及可能的潜在因果效应。结果显示，国际货币基金组织的项目具有间歇性和短期效应。救助往往会对宏观经济稳定和增长产生短期影响，但从长期来看，尤其是在国际货币基金组织计划结束后，这种影响是不可持续的。

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