Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

Modelling global water policies 模拟全球水资源政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010

Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania

This article develops an analysis of evolving water availability through a novel global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that moves beyond existing approaches by incorporating both precipitation and total water storage (TWS)– a more comprehensive measure of water availability encompassing surface water, groundwater, and soil moisture. To this aim, the article first provides an overview of the problem of economic modelling of water in a general equilibrium context, through a review of CGE models that have attempted to deal with water as a key economic input and its direct and indirect influence on markets and well-being. Secondly, it includes the health effects of inadequate water supply and sanitation (WASH), capturing a key dimension of water availability and its distributional effects. Third, it provides a granular representation of how water enters in the different value chains, providing novel suggestions and a better understanding of how water widespread influence across sectors may contribute to a more significant impact of climate change than estimated by other studies. Simulations are employed to evaluate the costs associated with policy inaction under various water scenarios, including those influenced by climate change, offering crucial guidance for proactive policy interventions.

本文通过一种新的全球可计算一般平衡（CGE）模型对不断变化的水可用性进行了分析，该模型超越了现有方法，结合了降水和总储水量（TWS）——一种更全面的水可用性测量方法，包括地表水、地下水和土壤水分。为此，本文首先概述了一般均衡背景下的水经济建模问题，通过对试图将水作为关键经济投入及其对市场和福祉的直接和间接影响处理的CGE模型的回顾。第二，它包括水供应和卫生设施不足对健康的影响，抓住了水供应及其分配影响的一个关键方面。第三，它提供了水如何进入不同价值链的细粒度表示，提供了新颖的建议，并更好地理解了水在各个部门的广泛影响如何可能对气候变化的影响比其他研究估计的更大。利用模拟来评估各种水情景（包括受气候变化影响的情景）下政策不作为的相关成本，为积极的政策干预提供重要指导。

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引用次数: 0

The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison 独立后津巴布韦棘手的公共债务：一个国际比较

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009

Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara

How has public and publicly guaranteed debt in post-independent Zimbabwe relentlessly spiralled over time? The mixed method study aimed to determine the causes and effects that have triggered a debt crisis in Zimbabwe. Descriptive data on public debt was obtained from the World Bank portal for the period 1980–2022. The research used documentary evidence obtained from online repositories. Documentary analysis was used under the data analysis section. Research findings indicated that high public debt was a result of continuous borrowing from financial institutions, corruption, weak institutions, non-adherence to the available legal frameworks, unbudgeted expenditures, as well as a lack of transparency and accountability in public debt management. It was also established that unsustainable public debt in Zimbabwe led to slow economic growth and a loss of creditworthiness status. The novelty of the research is on the basis of examining the causes and effects of public debt as well as providing solutions. These research findings imply that Zimbabwe must reduce its public debt levels in order to improve its capacity to meet macro-economic objectives and attain sustainable development goals. In terms of policy recommendations, it was suggested that there is a need for implementing public debt policy, debt transparency, a strong commitment to deal with corruption, responsible and restrained government borrowing.

独立后的津巴布韦的公共债务和公共担保债务是如何随着时间无情地螺旋式上升的？这项混合方法研究旨在确定引发津巴布韦债务危机的原因和影响。从世界银行门户网站获得了1980-2022年期间公共债务的描述性数据。该研究使用了从在线存储库获得的文件证据。在数据分析一节下采用了文献分析。研究结果表明，公共债务高企是由于不断向金融机构借款、腐败、机构薄弱、不遵守现有的法律框架、未列入预算的支出以及公共债务管理缺乏透明度和问责制。人们还确定，津巴布韦不可持续的公共债务导致经济增长缓慢和丧失信誉地位。该研究的新颖之处在于，它考察了公共债务的原因和影响，并提出了解决方案。这些研究结果表明，津巴布韦必须降低其公共债务水平，以便提高其实现宏观经济目标和实现可持续发展目标的能力。在政策建议方面，有人建议有必要执行公共债务政策、债务透明度、坚决承诺处理腐败、负责任和有节制的政府借款。

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引用次数: 0

Discrimination based on employer preferences: The height premium in China 基于雇主偏好的歧视：中国的身高溢价

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.002

Fei Peng , Lili Kang , Xiaocong Yang , Sajid Anwar

This paper examines the policy issue of height-based discrimination in China's labour market using a comprehensive nationwide survey dataset spanning from 1989 to 2015. Employing a theoretical framework that considers statistical discrimination resulting from employer preferences for cognitive and non-cognitive skills associated with productivity, the research investigates the impact of height on hourly wages. The empirical analysis reveals a height premium of approximately 5.97 % per ten-centimetre increase and identifies educational attainment as a factor explaining about one-third of this premium. Furthermore, the study finds that female employees with higher education levels experience greater height premiums. Interestingly, the height premium is smaller in the public sector, senior technical occupations, in regions with a collectivist culture that centres around traditional rice-growing practices, and during the earlier transition period (before 2000) when cognitive skills held more significance. These findings suggest the widespread occurrence of height-based statistical discrimination in China’s labour market and underscore the necessity for the policy interventions of health care and nutrition intake in early life and the later effective anti-discrimination regulations in labour market.

本文利用1989年至2015年的全国调查数据，研究了中国劳动力市场中基于身高的歧视政策问题。该研究采用了一个理论框架，考虑了雇主对与生产力相关的认知和非认知技能的偏好所导致的统计歧视，研究了身高对小时工资的影响。实证分析显示，每增加10厘米，身高溢价约为5.97%，并确定教育程度是解释这一溢价约三分之一的因素。此外，研究还发现，受教育程度较高的女性员工的身高溢价更高。有趣的是，在公共部门、高级技术职业、以传统水稻种植为中心的集体主义文化地区，以及在认知技能更为重要的早期过渡时期（2000年之前），身高溢价较小。这些研究结果表明，中国劳动力市场普遍存在基于身高的统计歧视，并强调了在生命早期进行医疗保健和营养摄入的政策干预以及在劳动力市场中制定有效的反歧视法规的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation 增加对“坏”的征税，减少对“好”的征税：碳税的双重红利假设

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002

Gurleen Kaur Malhotra , Amlendu Dubey

We analyse the effect of adoption of a carbon tax on the effective labour tax rates using a difference-in-difference framework in which we incorporate staggered treatment adoption and account for heterogeneous causal effects. We use data on 143 countries during 1985–2018. We conduct our analysis using DID estimation developed by Borusyak et al. (2024) and Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) followed by sensitivity analysis and placebo tests. We find that enacting a carbon tax on an average lowers the labour tax rate by 1.32 % points. In country-specific analysis we find that carbon tax implementation is reducing labour tax by around 3.57 % for Sweden and Norway, however, the effect is insignificant for Denmark. Our findings indicate that implementing a carbon tax can help to reduce the tax burden on labour. Countries experiencing substantial welfare losses due to their present tax structure might implement carbon taxes as a means to mitigate these losses.

我们采用差分法框架分析了采用碳税对实际劳动税率的影响，在该框架中，我们纳入了交错处理方法，并考虑了异质性因果效应。我们使用了 1985-2018 年间 143 个国家的数据。我们使用 Borusyak 等人（2024 年）以及 Callaway 和 Sant'Anna （2021 年）开发的 DID 估计方法进行分析，然后进行敏感性分析和安慰剂测试。我们发现，征收碳税可将劳动税率平均降低 1.32 个百分点。在国别分析中，我们发现碳税的实施使瑞典和挪威的劳动税率降低了约 3.57%，但对丹麦的影响并不显著。我们的研究结果表明，实施碳税有助于减轻劳动力的税收负担。由于目前的税收结构而造成大量福利损失的国家可以通过实施碳税来减轻这些损失。

引用次数: 0

Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency 降低贸易壁垒可以改善收入分配和经济弹性

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004

Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to calls for greater economic self-sufficiency by exposing gaps in international collaboration and the uncertainty of global supply chains. In this study, we apply a comprehensive global modeling framework to enhance understanding of the potential impacts of fragmentation of global value chains. Supporting the general argument toward economic benefits from open markets our analysis contributes to the policy debate in two important dimensions of this phenomenon—distributional impacts and economic resiliency. We find that tariff liberalization and trade facilitation measures implemented by developing countries could not only reduce between-country inequality but also result in progressive within-country income distribution primarily through lowering food prices, as well as increasing unskilled wages. In addition, using a case study of disruption to Thailand’s electronics industry, we find higher resiliency of developing countries to external shocks in the globalized (as opposed to a localized) world.

中美贸易战、COVID-19 大流行病和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露了国际合作中的差距和全球供应链的不确定性，从而促使人们呼吁加强经济自给自足。在本研究中，我们采用了一个全面的全球建模框架，以加深对全球价值链碎片化潜在影响的理解。我们的分析支持开放市场带来经济利益的一般论点，有助于在这一现象的两个重要方面--分配影响和经济弹性--进行政策辩论。我们发现，发展中国家实施的关税自由化和贸易便利化措施不仅能减少国家间的不平等，还能主要通过降低食品价格和增加非技术性工资，在国家内部逐步实现收入分配。此外，通过对泰国电子产业受到破坏的案例研究，我们发现发展中国家在全球化（而非本地化）的世界中对外部冲击具有更强的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs? 世界范围内是否存在可持续发展目标的趋同？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002

Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an unprecedented guide to addressing sustainability challenges globally. A central issue in sustainable development debate is represented by the convergence problem. The aim of our paper is to construct a policy analysis model that can be used to examine the cross-country convergence processes with respect to the achievement of SDGs toward the goals, based on the theory of sigma-convergence and beta-convergence The analysis covers 190 countries from 2000 to 2022 and the convergence is estimated with both ordinary least square and Arellano-Bond methods. Factors affecting the multivariate convergence process are shown. Our analysis contributes to policy-shaping to redefine strategies that allows the SDGs to be achieved, highlighting the need to define concrete and measurable objectives, with qualitative and quantitative methods at national levels.

可持续发展目标（sdg）是应对全球可持续发展挑战的前所未有的指南。趋同问题是可持续发展辩论中的一个中心问题。本文旨在基于sigma-收敛和beta-收敛理论构建一个政策分析模型，用于研究可持续发展目标实现的跨国收敛过程。该分析涵盖了2000年至2022年190个国家，并使用普通最小二乘法和Arellano-Bond方法估计了收敛性。给出了影响多元收敛过程的因素。我们的分析有助于制定政策，重新定义实现可持续发展目标的战略，强调需要在国家层面采用定性和定量方法确定具体和可衡量的目标。

引用次数: 0

The short-run displacement of EU cohesion funds in Italy: Has reprogramming a positive impact on regional growth? 欧盟凝聚力基金在意大利的短期转移：重新规划对地区增长有积极影响吗？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003

Fabio Mazzola, Debora Gambina

The European cohesion policy aims at fostering long-run growth. This paper, for the first time, empirically evaluates the impacts of Structural Funds re-programming on regional growth, for the Italian case during 2007–20 period. The re-programming was due to the redirection of allocated amounts facing urgent needs related to the Great Recession, Covid-19 and natural disasters. We estimate impulse response functions through Jordà local projections. We find a robust negative effect of re-programming on regional growth starting three years after the planned shock and sectoral heterogeneity. Our empirical results discourage the Funds’ redirection towards a different use from original goals.

欧洲的凝聚力政策旨在促进长期增长。本文首次以2007 - 2020年意大利为例，实证评估了结构性基金重组对区域增长的影响。重新规划是由于重新分配了与大衰退、新冠肺炎和自然灾害有关的紧急需求的拨款。我们通过jordan局部投影估计脉冲响应函数。我们发现，在计划冲击和行业异质性发生后三年，重新规划对区域增长产生了强劲的负面影响。我们的实证结果不鼓励基金转向与最初目标不同的用途。

引用次数: 0

Exploring policy responses to labour-saving technologies: An assessment of basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction 探索对节省劳力技术的政策回应：对基本收入、工作保障和减少工作时间的评估

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001

Simone D’Alessandro , Tiziano Distefano , Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Davide Villani

This study examines policy responses to labor-saving technologies, focusing on employment and income inequality. Using the EUROGREEN model, we assess three scenarios: basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction. The job guarantee scheme effectively reduces unemployment but raises the fiscal deficit, while working time reduction improves wage share, cuts deficits, and reduces inequality. Basic income has a moderate impact on unemployment but significantly reduces inequality but is accompanied by higher deficits. A wealth tax could help finance these policies and contribute to inequality reduction. This research provides novel insights to policymakers by demonstrating how a strategic mix of labour policies can improve socio-economic outcomes in the face of technological-induced job disruptions.

本研究以就业和收入不平等为重点，探讨了针对节省劳动力技术的政策应对措施。我们使用 EUROGREEN 模型评估了三种方案：基本收入、就业保障和减少工作时间。就业保障计划有效降低了失业率，但增加了财政赤字，而减少工作时间则提高了工资份额，削减了赤字，减少了不平等。基本收入对失业率的影响不大，但能显著减少不平等现象，但同时也会增加赤字。征收财富税有助于为这些政策提供资金，并有助于减少不平等。这项研究为政策制定者提供了新颖的见解，展示了在面临技术引发的就业中断时，劳动政策的战略组合如何能够改善社会经济成果。

引用次数: 0

Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability 通货膨胀对欧洲银行盈利能力的双重影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004

Renata Karkowska , Zbigniew Korzeb , Paweł Niedziółka

Geopolitical risks have sharply heightened inflationary pressures across global economies, posing significant challenges to the banking sector. This study investigates the complex impact of inflation on banks, focusing on the dual effect of rising inflation on bank performance. On one hand, our analysis of 196 commercial banks from 31 European countries reveals that inflation drives an increase in both interest and non-interest incomes, bolstering banks' revenue streams. On the other hand, this same inflationary pressure leads to a deterioration in efficiency ratios, indicating a decline in operational efficiency. This paradox highlights a critical issue for the banking sector: while banks may experience short-term revenue gains, their overall efficiency suffers, potentially undermining long-term stability. Our findings underscore the importance of coordinated monetary and macroprudential policies to mitigate these effects and suggest that supervisory policies favoring consolidation initiatives could offer a pathway to enhanced efficiency in an inflationary environment.

地缘政治风险急剧加剧了全球各经济体的通胀压力，给银行业带来了巨大挑战。本研究调查了通胀对银行的复杂影响，重点关注通胀上升对银行业绩的双重影响。一方面，我们对 31 个欧洲国家的 196 家商业银行进行的分析表明，通胀推动了利息和非利息收入的增长，增加了银行的收入来源。另一方面，同样的通胀压力却导致效率比率下降，表明经营效率下降。这一悖论凸显了银行业的一个关键问题：虽然银行可能会在短期内增加收入，但其整体效率却会受到影响，从而有可能破坏长期稳定。我们的研究结果凸显了协调货币政策和宏观审慎政策对减轻这些影响的重要性，并表明有利于整顿举措的监管政策可为在通胀环境下提高效率提供一条途径。

引用次数: 0

New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties 新规则，新游戏？取消客场进球规则和采用视频助理裁判对欧冠比赛动态的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003

Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman

This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.

本研究调查了欧洲足球最近两项规则变化的影响：客场进球规则（AGR）的废除和视频助理裁判（VAR）系统的引入。具体来说，它研究了这些变化是如何影响比赛动态的，重点是比赛风格指标和欧洲冠军联赛的纪律结果。我们收集了从2000/01赛季开始到2023/24赛季附加赛阶段的1244场两回合比赛（2488场个人比赛）的数据。通过分析总比分和单回合水平的数据，并控制大量混杂变量，我们对欧足联停止AGR的理由提出了质疑。与欧足联取消AGR的理由相反，我们的发现表明AGR促进了进攻而不是防守。我们关于VAR的研究结果与文献中的主流观点一致：裁判对客队的偏见减少，对危险铲球的厌恶增加，因此，纪律违规行为减少。考虑到在AGR下进行的比赛更具竞争性，因此更有趣，我们的关键政策暗示是欧足联应该考虑恢复AGR。我们的研究结果还表明，VAR应该继续存在，因为它能促进公平和遵守规则的比赛。

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