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Voting Against Autocracy 投票反对独裁
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a908772
Milan W. Svolik
abstract: When and how do voters punish politicians for subverting democracy? To investigate the role of the public in democratic backsliding, I develop a conceptual framework that differentiates among three mechanisms: vote switching, backlash, and disengagement. The first mechanism entails defection by voters from a candidate who undermines democracy to one who does not; the latter two mechanisms entail transitions between voting and abstention. I estimate the magnitude of each mechanism by combining evidence from a series of original survey experiments, traditional surveys, and a quasi-experiment afforded by the rerun of the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, in which the governing party, akp, attempted to overturn the result of an election that it had lost. I find that although vote switching and backlash contributed to the akp's eventual defeat the most, each of the three mechanisms served as a democratic check in some subset of the Istanbul electorate. Persuasion, mobilization, and even demobilization are all viable tools for curbing the authoritarian tendencies of elected politicians.
选民何时以及如何惩罚颠覆民主的政客?为了调查公众在民主倒退中的作用,我开发了一个概念框架,区分了三种机制:投票转换、反弹和脱离参与。第一种机制导致选民从破坏民主的候选人转向不破坏民主的候选人;后两种机制需要在投票和弃权之间进行转换。我通过结合来自一系列原始调查实验、传统调查和2019年伊斯坦布尔市长选举重新进行的准实验的证据来估计每种机制的重要性。在这次选举中,执政党正义与发展党(akp)试图推翻自己输掉的选举结果。我发现,虽然选票转换和反弹对正义与发展党最终的失败贡献最大,但这三种机制中的每一种都在伊斯坦布尔选民的某些子集中起到了民主制衡的作用。说服、动员、甚至遣散都是遏制民选政客独裁倾向的可行工具。
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引用次数: 2
Democracy and Mass Skepticism of Science 民主与大众对科学的怀疑
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a908774
Junyan Jiang, Kinman Wan
abstract: Since the Age of Enlightenment, many thinkers and philosophers have viewed democracy and science as two aspects of modernity that reinforce each other. This article highlights a tension between the two by arguing that certain aspects of contemporary democracy may aggravate the mass public's anti-intellectual tendency and thus potentially hinder scientific progress. The authors analyze a new global survey of public opinion on science using empirical strategies that exploit cross-country and cross-cohort variations in experience with democracy, and show that less-educated citizens in democracies distrust science much more than do their counterparts in nondemocracies. Further analyses suggest that the increase in skepticism in democracies is not the result of greater religiosity or weaker scientific literacy; instead, it is more likely driven by a shift in the mode of legitimation, which reduces states' ability and willingness to act as key public advocates for science. These findings shed light on the institutional sources of science-bashing in many longstanding democracies.
自启蒙时代以来,许多思想家和哲学家将民主与科学视为现代性的两个方面,它们相互促进。这篇文章强调了两者之间的紧张关系,认为当代民主的某些方面可能会加剧大众的反智倾向,从而可能阻碍科学进步。作者分析了一项新的全球公众对科学的看法调查,使用了实证策略,利用了各国和不同群体的民主经验差异,结果表明,民主国家受教育程度较低的公民比非民主国家的公民更不信任科学。进一步的分析表明,民主国家怀疑论的增加并不是更虔诚的宗教信仰或更弱的科学素养的结果;相反,它更有可能是由合法化模式的转变所驱动的,这种转变降低了国家作为科学关键公众倡导者的能力和意愿。这些发现揭示了许多长期民主国家抨击科学的制度根源。
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引用次数: 0
Where Have the Guardians Gone? Law Enforcement and the Politics of Supranational Forbearance in the European Union 守护者去哪儿了?欧盟的执法与超国家容忍政治
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a908775
R. Daniel Kelemen, Tommaso Pavone
abstract: Why would a supranational law enforcer suddenly refrain from wielding its powers? The authors theorize the supranational politics of forbearance—the deliberate underenforcement of the law—and explain how they arise from cross-pressures between prosecutorial discretion and intergovernmental policy-making. The article then traces why an exemplary supranational enforcer—the European Commission—became reluctant to launch infringements against European Union member states. While the Commission's policy-making role as engine of integration has been controversial, its prosecutorial role as guardian of the Treaties has been viewed as less contentious. Yet after 2004, infringements launched by the Commission plummeted. The authors demonstrate that the Commission's political leadership grew alarmed that aggressive enforcement was eroding intergovernmental support for its policy agenda. By reining in the bureaucrats managing enforcement and embracing conciliatory dialogues with governments, the Commission sacrificed its role as guardian of the Treaties to safeguard its role as engine of integration. The article's findings highlight the consequences of politicizing international institutions and the tradeoffs facing executives double-hatting as prosecutors and policymakers.
为什么一个超国家的执法者会突然停止行使其权力?作者将超国家的宽容政治——故意执法不足——理论化,并解释了它们是如何从检察官自由裁量权和政府间政策制定之间的交叉压力中产生的。文章随后追溯了超国家执法者——欧盟委员会——不愿对欧盟成员国发起侵权行为的原因。虽然委员会作为一体化引擎的决策作用一直存在争议,但其作为《条约》守护者的起诉作用被认为争议较少。然而,2004年之后,欧盟委员会发起的侵权案件大幅减少。作者表明,委员会的政治领导对积极的执法正在侵蚀政府间对其政策议程的支持感到震惊。通过控制管理执法的官僚和接受与各国政府的和解对话,委员会牺牲了其作为《条约》守护者的作用,以维护其作为一体化引擎的作用。这篇文章的研究结果强调了将国际机构政治化的后果,以及高管们同时担任检察官和政策制定者所面临的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Gender after Genocide: How Violence Shapes Long-Term Political Representation 种族灭绝后的性别:暴力如何塑造长期的政治代表
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a900710
N. Gaikwad, E. Lin, Noah Zucker
abstract:What are the legacies of violence on women's political representation? This article examines the long-term effects of a watershed conflict of the twentieth century: the Khmer Rouge genocide, during which 50–70 percent of Cambodia's working-age men were killed. Using original data on mass killings and economic and political conditions in Cambodian communes, the authors find that genocide exposure is positively associated with women's economic advancement and current-day indicators of women's representation in local-level elected office. The authors conduct in-depth, ethnographic interviews with genocide survivors to explore the mechanisms by which violence spurred women into elected office. A crucial finding emerges: In areas that suffered the genocide's worst killings, widows obtained economic autonomy, providing a template for the economic advancement of women in traditional households with surviving men. The shift in norms regarding the sexual division of labor and its transmission through intracommunal and intergenerational pathways allowed women to adopt larger public roles over time in communities more exposed to genocide violence.
暴力对女性政治代表的影响是什么?这篇文章考察了20世纪分水岭冲突的长期影响:红色高棉种族灭绝,在此期间,柬埔寨50 - 70%的劳动年龄男性被杀害。作者利用关于大规模屠杀和柬埔寨公社经济和政治状况的原始数据发现,种族灭绝的曝光与妇女的经济发展和妇女在地方一级民选办公室任职的当前指标呈正相关。作者对种族灭绝幸存者进行了深入的人种学采访,以探索暴力促使妇女进入民选公职的机制。一个重要的发现出现了:在遭受种族灭绝最严重杀戮的地区,寡妇获得了经济自主权,这为有幸存男性的传统家庭中妇女的经济进步提供了一个模板。关于性别分工的规范的转变及其通过社区内和代际途径的传播,使妇女能够在更容易遭受种族灭绝暴力的社区中逐渐发挥更大的公共作用。
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引用次数: 3
Monopoly Politics: Price Competition, Learning, and the Evolution of Policy Regimes 垄断政治:价格竞争、学习和政策制度的演变
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a900713
Erik Peinert
abstract:In the long run, economic policy in advanced industrial states has historically alternated between favoring price competition and favoring the market power of domestic firms, across such disparate areas as antitrust, intellectual property, and trade. This article presents a theory of long-term policy change, based on the interaction of accumulating economic costs and staff turnover within the state, explaining multiple policy alternations during the twentieth century. Policy regimes of competition or market power endogenously generate diminishing returns, manifested as unintended economic costs intrinsic to competition or market power. And yet policy regimes endure because established cadres of government officials remain committed to existing policy approaches. Even as diminishing returns become apparent, it is only after the removal or circumvention of these established policymakers, through staff turnover and learning by uncommitted officials, that policy eventually changes course. The article supports this argument with extensive evidence from government archives in the United States and France.
从长期来看,发达工业国家的经济政策历来在支持价格竞争和支持国内企业的市场力量之间交替,涉及反垄断、知识产权和贸易等不同领域。本文提出了一个长期政策变化的理论,该理论基于国家内部累积的经济成本和人员流动的相互作用,解释了20世纪的多次政策变化。竞争或市场力量的政策制度内生地产生递减的收益,表现为竞争或市场力量固有的意外经济成本。然而,政策制度之所以能够持续下去,是因为政府官员的现有骨干仍然致力于现有的政策方法。即使收益递减变得很明显,但只有在通过人员更替和不负责的官员学习,取消或规避这些既定政策制定者之后,政策才能最终改变方向。这篇文章用来自美国和法国政府档案的大量证据来支持这一论点。
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引用次数: 1
"This Rally is Not Authorized": Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies “这次集会未经授权”:选举专制国家的预防性镇压和公众舆论
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a900711
Katerina Tertytchnaya
abstract:Does preventive repression dampen or does it bolster mass support for groups that dissent despite obstruction? Although a large literature recognizes the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question, this article draws on evidence from unusually detailed data on unauthorized and authorized protests from Russia and an original survey experiment. The author shows that when authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest authorizations, protesters' ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of nonviolent demonstrator tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on citizens' attitudes about the law and the authorities. This article's findings—which provide one of the first causal tests of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression—expand our understanding of the consequences and audiences of repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.
摘要:预防性镇压是抑制还是加强了对不顾阻碍持不同意见的团体的大规模支持?尽管大量文献承认预防性镇压对独裁稳定的重要性,但我们对其对公众舆论的影响知之甚少。为了在这个问题上获得关注,本文引用了俄罗斯未经授权和授权的抗议活动的异常详细数据和一项原始调查实验的证据。作者表明,当当局进行预防性镇压时,例如当他们拒绝抗议授权时,抗议者获得支持的能力就会受到损害。预防性镇压也制约了非暴力示威者策略对公众舆论的影响。然而,这些影响取决于公民对法律和当局的态度。这篇文章的发现是对预防性镇压的大众舆论影响的第一次因果检验之一,它扩展了我们对镇压的后果和受众的理解,并对威权主义韧性的研究产生了影响。
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引用次数: 3
The Rise of Grassroots Civil Society under One-Party Rule: The Case of China's Homeowner Associations 一党专政下基层公民社会的崛起:以中国业主协会为例
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a900714
Yu Zeng, Junyan Jiang, Jie Li, Christian Göbel
abstract:Conventional wisdom holds that one-party regimes are intrinsically hostile to civil society because organized citizens can threaten the regime's political dominance. Contrary to this view, the authors argue that genuinely voluntary civil society organizations may be tolerated, or even actively promoted, by governments in a one-party system when those organizations can help to efficiently resolve intrasocietal distributional conflicts arising from economic modernization. Using China's homeowner associations (hoas) as a case, the article demonstrates that local authorities are more likely to promulgate policies that encourage the development of self-organized hoas when citizens frequently call upon the authorities to intervene and adjudicate their disputes with property development and management companies. An instrumental variables estimation suggests that the relationship is likely to be causal, and additional analyses on mechanisms reveal that citizens' complaints are most effective in eliciting pro-hoa policies when they are targeted at business rather than government actors. These findings highlight an important function of civil society organizations in street-level governance and offer a nuanced interpretation of how pluralistic elements may emerge in nonliberal systems.
传统观点认为,一党制政权本质上敌视公民社会,因为有组织的公民会威胁到政权的政治主导地位。与这一观点相反,作者认为,在一党制下,当真正自愿的民间社会组织能够帮助有效解决经济现代化引起的社会内部分配冲突时,政府可能会容忍,甚至积极推动这些组织。本文以中国的业主协会(hoas)为例表明,当公民经常要求当局干预并裁决他们与房地产开发和管理公司的纠纷时,地方当局更有可能颁布鼓励自组织hoas发展的政策。一项工具变量估计表明,这种关系可能是因果关系,对机制的进一步分析表明,当公民的投诉针对企业而不是政府行为者时,他们最有效地引发了亲华政策。这些发现突出了民间社会组织在街头治理中的重要作用,并对多元因素如何在非自由主义制度中出现提供了细致入微的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Reforming Global Governance: Power, Alliance, and Institutional Performance 改革全球治理:权力、联盟与制度绩效
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.a900712
A. Carnegie, Richard Clark
abstract:A large literature analyzes the determinants of change in international institutions, focusing on the role of systemic political and economic shocks. However, this article considers this question also in more business-as-usual periods, asking when institutions of global governance reform and which states benefit from these changes. The authors argue that allies of international organizations (io)s' leading stakeholders benefit more than nonaligned countries; however, the authors also document that reforms sometimes contain concessions to nonallied members. This article theorizes that while io officials reward major stakeholders' allies in normal times, they provide concessions to nonallies during periods of poor io performance to prevent these states from disengaging. Analyzing an original data set of reforms at the World Bank between 1944 and 2018, paired with qualitative evidence, the article finds significant support for its hypotheses. The findings help to make sense of otherwise puzzling instances of power shifts within ios.
摘要:大量文献分析了国际制度变革的决定因素,重点关注系统性政治和经济冲击的作用。然而,本文也在更多的“一切照旧”时期考虑了这个问题,询问全球治理机构何时进行改革,哪些国家从这些变化中受益。作者认为,国际组织的主要利益相关者的盟友比不结盟国家受益更多;然而,作者也记录了改革有时包含对无污染成员国的让步。这篇文章的理论是,虽然io官员在正常情况下奖励主要利益相关者的盟友,但他们在io表现不佳的时期向非盟友提供让步,以防止这些州脱离。文章分析了1944年至2018年间世界银行改革的原始数据集,并结合定性证据,发现其假设得到了重大支持。这些发现有助于理解ios内部权力转移的其他令人困惑的例子。
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引用次数: 2
The Protestant Road to Bureaucracy 新教通往官僚主义之路
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.0006
Valentín Figueroa
After the seventeenth century, rulers across Europe attempted reforms to replace amateur administrators with professional bureaucrats. The success of administrative reforms hinged on whether rulers could compensate entrenched officeholders and recruit salaried employees. The author demonstrates that the extent to which these conditions were met at the time of reforms depended on whether states had experienced a Protestant Reformation in the sixteenth century. This article shows how the Reformation, which involved the expropriation of the Catholic Church’s assets, set in motion two processes. First, to finance their wars, Protestant rulers used revenue from confiscated assets instead of selling proprietary offices, leading to fewer venal officeholders who resisted administrative reforms. Second, expropriations made churches poorer and reduced the number of plum jobs in the clergy, incentivizing a reallocation of educational investments from religious knowledge to secular skills more useful for state administration. This distinctive Protestant developmental path hastened the demise of the patrimonial state. By 1789, the only major territorial states that were bureaucratic were Protestant.
17世纪以后,欧洲各国的统治者试图进行改革,用专业官僚取代业余行政人员。行政改革的成功与否,取决于统治者能否对地位稳固的官员给予补偿,能否聘用受薪雇员。作者论证了这些条件在改革时得到满足的程度取决于各州在16世纪是否经历了新教改革。这篇文章展示了宗教改革如何启动了两个过程,其中包括没收天主教会的资产。首先,新教统治者使用没收资产的收入来资助战争,而不是出售专有办公室,导致抵制行政改革的腐败官员减少。其次,征收财产使教堂变得更穷,减少了神职人员的好工作,刺激了教育投资的重新分配,从宗教知识转向对国家管理更有用的世俗技能。这种独特的新教发展道路加速了世袭制国家的消亡。到1789年,唯一的主要领土国家是官僚主义的新教国家。
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引用次数: 0
The Politics of Decentralization Level: Local and Regional Devolution as Substitutes 权力下放层面的政治:地方和区域权力下放的替代
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1353/wp.2023.0005
Joan Ricart-Huguet, Emily A. Sellars
abstract:Most contemporary decentralization has occurred at the local (district) rather than the regional (provincial) level. Why? The authors advance a theory highlighting the political incentives of central authorities to bypass the regional tier of government in favor of decentralizing to smaller, more fragmented units. Regional decentralization can capitalize on economies of scale and scope in public service provision, but it also enables political opposition to scale more effectively. Local decentralization provides some of the benefits of regional decentralization at less political risk, making it an imperfect but attractive substitute for central authorities. Drawing on cases from Africa and Latin America, this article discusses when and how strategic local decentralization can be an effective strategy to maintain political control in divided societies, why sometimes governments may instead opt for regional decentralization or (re)centralization, and how the choice of decentralization level depends on political geography and history as well as economic factors.
当代的权力下放大多发生在地方(区)层面,而不是地区(省)层面。为什么?作者提出了一种理论,强调了中央政府绕过地方一级政府的政治动机,倾向于将权力下放到更小、更分散的单位。区域分权可以利用公共服务提供的规模经济和范围经济,但它也使政治反对派能够更有效地扩大规模。地方分权在政治风险较小的情况下提供了区域分权的一些好处,使其成为中央政府的一个不完美但有吸引力的替代品。本文以非洲和拉丁美洲的案例为例,讨论了在分裂的社会中,战略性地方分权何时以及如何成为维持政治控制的有效策略,为什么有时政府可能会选择区域分权或(再)集权,以及分权水平的选择如何取决于政治地理和历史以及经济因素。
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引用次数: 1
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World Politics
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